Al-Shabab (Somali Al Qaeda ) Shot Up Nairobi Shopping Mall

[Simon_Jester]

I think you give Al Qaeda too much credit. 9/11 was terrible PR for militant Islam. Middle Easterners who had previously been neutral or even sympathized with AQ and similar movements started to turn away. It wasn't until our moron-in-chief started launching invasions and throwing around terms like "crusade" and "Axis of Evil" that recruitment picked up again...

Exactly the point of my analysis, though granted not the point of Al Qaeda's analysis. The de facto effect of 9/11 was to goad the US into a massive reaction which secured permanent acceptability for militant Islam because of its anti-Americanism. And another terrorist organization might even try to consciously duplicate this result on a regional level.

The architects of 9/11 thought that the world would rise up against The Great Satan as soon as they struck the first blow, and instead it turned against them. They never had the foresight to imagine that their enemies would so recklessly snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in the hearts and minds of the region.

Ah. You may well have a point. On the other hand, having set this precedent, the little splinters may be conscious of this and trying to duplicate the goal for all I know.

On the other hand, you may be (likely are) totally right, they may have no clue what they're doing... and yet it might work anyway. It's frustrating, but terrorist tactics are like that. Because terrorists have so little to lose, it is relatively hard to make their situation decisively worse and defeat them for all time- there's no fixed target that will go away when you shoot it enough times.

I actually agree, the key is simply to deny them the opportunity to exploit a foreign overreaction, the chance to paint themselves as heroic defenders of the people against invading foreigners. In fact, I think that ties in quite well with my picture of their strategy, even if the strategy is not being pursued by them because they're too stupid and crazy.

[Arthur_Tuxedo]

This line of discussion makes me wonder whether terrorist recruitment could be reduced through an ad campaign tying these groups to young men who can't get a job or a wife. I don't know what the proper lingo would be, but I'm sure every culture in the ME region has a devastating insult to that effect. ie "<insert percentage> of Al-Shabab members are unemployed and unmarried. If someone tells you he is a member, it means he's a <insert derogatory term for a man who can't attract a woman>."

If it could be done successfully, it would take away the romance of martyrdom for frustrated young men and replace it with shame and mockery.

Also, when it comes to characters like Assad, rather than choose between sanctions that primarily affect the poor and middle-class and full scale airstrikes, why not target their personal assets? Dropping laser-guided 2,000 lb concrete slabs on their mansions and fancy cars would hit them where it hurts and simultaneously make it clear that the kleptos-in-charge are the targets, not the citizenry or the religion of Islam. It would also reduce civilian casualties if a human shield strategy were employed.