So who said it was gonna be quick?

[Durandal]

I echo Coyote. Nine days, not weeks. Even a "short war" isn't going to be over this quickly.

When we took the first casualty from Iraqi fire and the war didn't end after the first weekend, it became "not a sure thing." We need to start accepting reality. This isn't a movie. We're not done in two hours and a half.

Or, in the case of Gods and Generals, four.

[Queeb Salaron]

I echo Coyote. Nine days, not weeks. Even a "short war" isn't going to be over this quickly.

When we took the first casualty from Iraqi fire and the war didn't end after the first weekend, it became "not a sure thing." We need to start accepting reality. This isn't a movie. We're not done in two hours and a half.

Or, in the case of Gods and Generals, four.

The Shaara brothers should be doused in hot sauce and rolled into a human burrito to feed to descendants of the veterans of the Mexican-American war.

I only say that because I don't like their writing style. They're great historians, and probably nice guys. I'm only that brutally mean to authors I don't like. And fundies.

...And Pokemon. ::Shudders::

(Feel free to ignore me completely... or flame me. Whatever. )

[Cpt_Frank]

Most likely, it'll be a clusterfuck of the first order- this "the Iraqis won't fight" stuff is a massive fad- and all six Republican Guard divisions are around Baghdad. With their backs to the city, and no weak flanks to exploit and no way to get in their rear area (unlike 1991), US forces (probably the 3rd and 4th ID alone) will bullrush head on into them, there'll be a massive firefight, and after a few days, when the RG positions finally break (give or take for possible Coalition reverses)- they'll retreat into the city proper.

Good fun!

The asshole warsie would argue that we dropped leaflettes on Baghdad warning them that shit was gonna get hectic quick, and they better get the fuck out. They're own damned fault for sticking around.

Which is why I hate asshole warsies.

Retreat into a city where every fucking building is a potential strongpoint, they've bunkered most intersections, you have a population base with if not a strong support of Hussein, then a definate hatred of the US. Add to this that CAS and artillery is ruled out if the US wants to keep anything resembling public opinion behind them.

Its going to be fucking bloody and not at all nice for anyone involved.

The asshole warsie would argue that we dropped leaflettes on Baghdad warning them that shit was gonna get hectic quick, and they better get the fuck out. They're own damned fault for sticking around.

Which is why I hate asshole warsies.

Are you refering to me?

[Queeb Salaron]

Are you refering to me?

No no no no... I wasn't referring to anyone. Just a broad generalization.

don't overquote

[Coyote]

My biggest argument with the administration's handling of this war is the way they casually assumed that the Iraqis would surrender in droves and help us. While I say the fighting has indeed been light considering the carnage we could have faced if every division stood and fought, it did lull our troops into a false sense of security-- causing them to underestimate the enemy.

I think we are facing "relatively light" resistance compared to the actual power and ability that the regular Iraqi army could potentially cause; but the front-line boys were given to expect a walkthrough with nothing but flowers being thrown at them.

Perhaps it is the bitterness at this betrayal that has actually intensified the soldiers' feelings of anger and frustration. Had they been told to expect a tenacious and determined enemy that will fight like a caged animal, then what we face now would seem relatively minor in that perspective.

The Iraqis are not necessarily pro-Saddam but anti-Invader, no matter who invades or for what reason. Plus a lot of people are neither helping nor hindering us since they want to see what we're really there to do.

But now our guys probably feel like they cannot fully trust what they hear from their highest-ups, and that is the worst thing you can do to a soldier, especially in combat.

[Axis Kast]

With whom would you have put your money before the war, Coyote?

I echo your sentiments, but Rumsfeld and Co. made a logical assumption. It turned out to be the wrong one.

Now granted this the USM and we should have superior intelligence, but we didn't. It was very much guesswork - a lot of it based on the word of Kurdish or Iraqi dissidents and their years-old or regionally biased perception of the issues.

It also bears out that Rumsfeld might have been right on the resistance initially but failed to take into account underhanded tactics of the Iraqi regimé and the willingness of the RG to take action against their own countrymen. That seems to be a major motivator as well.

[Coyote]

Oh, definitely the US/Coalition forces hold my confidence, now as before. I just think that we should not have conditioned our troops to think this was going to be a walkover.

Folks asked me before hostilities broke out how long it would last and I said "3 months or so". That still seems reaslistic to me, but our leadership has been so poor in their ability to interpret the images and perspective of the battlefield that it could become longer.

How the administration handles the Public Relations aspect was one of the few things I could not adequately gauge, but I had a sense of forboding as each passing day came and went. It seems to me that a lot of things were said that made sense or were factual but presented in very jingoistic and confrontational tones. Even though the actual intentions and facts of the matter give me reason to support the war, I can see how other nations would perceive us in a bad light.

I think when there is definite proof about the fate of Saddam (dead or in chains) we'll see a sea change in the moods of the people there. They don't trust us to finish the job since we left them hanging last time, 12 years ago. America is horrible at this sort of thing; we'd have amuch easier time of things if we had stuck to our original promises, good or bad. Without consistency we lack credibility.

When Saddam is gone, we then have to demonstrate that we will have a solid plan for leavuing Iraq in the hands of the Iraqis, again backing up our stated rhetoric. We have to see them as partners in, not subjects to, our rebuilding efforts. We have to give them a vested interest in representative gov't based on local traditions (Sunni Islam has some very democratic roots, surprisingly). If we show seriousness in dealing with Saddam and treating Iraq with dignity, the people will finally give the thanks we seek.

If we botch it, then break out the do-it-yourself home quagmire kit.

[weemadando]

I echo your sentiments, but Rumsfeld and Co. made a logical assumption. It turned out to be the wrong one.

Outside of the US I don't think that there was a single person, let alone military expert who thought that the Iraqi's would welcome the Americans with open arms while singing the star-spangled banner.

It was a stupid fucking assumption formed from ignorance and a superiority complex.

[Enforcer Talen]

well, the u.s. is good at superiority complex. . .

[Axis Kast]

It's been twelve days. This is hardly a "slow war." Like I said, things took a poor turn when we didn't see Iraqis celebrating on television often enough and after the first U.S. tank was hit by an RPG. Once our troops began dying from bullets that weren't our own, people freaked out and immediately began shouting: "Quaqmire." Bullshit. Not even two weeks have gone by and we're already at Saddam Hussein's door.

Weemando - we didn't expect the Iraqis to come out clapping, but I think it was a fairly good bet before the war to assume that once our troops had breached the limits of a city, most of the population would rejoice. Nobody happened to count on irregulars having been seeded through Iraq with orders to kill the families of those who didn't fight.

As for why we aren't being met with rose petals? We failed these people once before. From their point of view, this might turn out to be a foreign dictatorship or neo-imperialism. Until reconstruction is fully underway, we won't see too many positive outpourings of support. It's too iffy yet.