Category 5 hurricane headed for Florida

[Flagg]

Dear GOP, I hope it was worth spending the last ~30 years laughing at the people warning you about AGW. I don't think you'll be laughing for much longer now that the climate refugee thing looks set to hit our neck of the woods.

Yeah, I will bet my left nut (the lucky one) that if Washington D.C. gets a blizzard (which is likelier, due to Global Climate Change) this coming winter Senaturd James Inhofe (or some other GCC denying shitpile on the fossil fuel industries' payroll) will give a speech mocking reality with a snowball in his hand.

[Zaune]

Given that there are only about 2,000 people on Barbuda I wonder if it makes more sense to simple evacuate the entire island until the storms are past, then bring them back and rebuild in better weather?

Might not be worth rebuilding. Aren't the NOAA already tracking a third Category 3 hurricane on its way in? And if this kind of weather is going to be a regular event then the insurance companies are going to be a bit reluctant to cover property that's got a high probability of getting trashed every time there's an unusually mild El Nino season.

[LaCroix]

Mara Lago's in Florida, isn't it?

I dearly hope that Trump's precious golf resort gets flooded out. If there's any justice, he should have to personally fit the bill for at least part of the damage caused by the climate change he dismisses and ignores.

Oh, who am I kidding? He'll probably find some way to rebuild it using public money. Or loans from Russia.

https://www.google.at/maps/place/Mar-a- ... 80.0369802

It will get devastated for sure - heck, the actual plot it is located on might not be there anymore if Hurricane erosion hits it just right.

[LaCroix]

Given that there are only about 2,000 people on Barbuda I wonder if it makes more sense to simple evacuate the entire island until the storms are past, then bring them back and rebuild in better weather?

Might not be worth rebuilding. Aren't the NOAA already tracking a third Category 3 hurricane on its way in? And if this kind of weather is going to be a regular event then the insurance companies are going to be a bit reluctant to cover property that's got a high probability of getting trashed every time there's an unusually mild El Nino season.

You are assuming these people even have insurance. After Jose hits, with most likely the next one already gearing up to hit, evacuation might be the only solution.

The path is now narrowed down to rolling along the north coast of Cuba (There goes my chance to ever see Havanna, although it might not get hit by the center, so not all hope is lost), then hooks north, over the keys, making landfall at the FL coast while at the same time her other side hits Bahama, and then roll north, nicely centered at the edge of the coast. Problem is that if it does only glance of Cuba, it will hit FL even harder. This thing is going to go over the FL barrier islands like an angry god with an eraser.

Wonder if Cape Canaveral will still be there afterwards.

[Flagg]

Mara Lago's in Florida, isn't it?

I dearly hope that Trump's precious golf resort gets flooded out. If there's any justice, he should have to personally fit the bill for at least part of the damage caused by the climate change he dismisses and ignores.

Oh, who am I kidding? He'll probably find some way to rebuild it using public money. Or loans from Russia.

https://www.google.at/maps/place/Mar-a- ... 80.0369802

It will get devastated for sure - heck, the actual plot it is located on might not be there anymore if Hurricane erosion hits it just right.

Yeah, that's so awesome! I mean tens of thousands will be homeless and lose everything they own, people will die, and FEMA can barely handle the aftermath of Harvey so everyone without power and water will be shit out of luck once their emergency supplies are gone (if they have any). But Trump's fucking golf course will get flooded so it's aaaalllll worth it!

[Broomstick]

Mara Lago's in Florida, isn't it?

I dearly hope that Trump's precious golf resort gets flooded out. If there's any justice, he should have to personally fit the bill for at least part of the damage caused by the climate change he dismisses and ignores.

Oh, who am I kidding? He'll probably find some way to rebuild it using public money. Or loans from Russia.

My understanding is that in the past when his Florida properties have been storm-damaged he has applied for and received government assistance/loans. I see no reason he'd do differently if it happened again.

News indicate that Berbuda is 'barely inhabitable', pretty much everything pressure washed off it. That same will happen to most of the Antilles.

Chances are that Jose will hit whatever they manage to salvage as a cat 2 or 3 about the time Irma is going to reshape Florida.

Given that there are only about 2,000 people on Barbuda I wonder if it makes more sense to simple evacuate the entire island until the storms are past, then bring them back and rebuild in better weather?

Not sure about that. I don't know much about it (never heard of it until yesterday) but generally you want to get aid to them, rather than get them to aid. Plus you will always have the standard idiots who will refuse to leave (in FL it was people who lived right on the beach or in mobile homes) because <dumb reason due to feeling invincible or pride> so unless the evacuation is at gunpoint I don't know that they can get everyone out.

Well, yes, there are always people problems when dealing with people. But reports are that there are no intact buildings on the island and water, water everywhere. Conditions are such that many might want to go elsewhere until the danger of hurricanes is past for the year and safe shelter can be constructed. You will never get absolutely everyone to leave but it seems sensible to evacuate such a devastated location if more trouble is on the way.

I'm usually in favor of not forcing people to move but this may be a case where moving people to the aid is easier/cheaper/safer than bringing the aid to them. It certainly should be considered as a possibility given that Jose might pose a risk to the island in the near future.

There's also the logistical issue. How do you get 2000 people off an island (that may not have functioning harbors) before the next storm hits? Where do you take them? What is some of them don't want to go back?

Small boats and airlifts. It's only about 62 km from Barbuda to Angtigua, about 40 miles. Small boats that don't require a large or developed harbor could make that trip IF weather conditions permit. That's a big if, I know, and I have no idea if there will be such safe conditions in the near future. Larger ships would work if you have smaller boats/rafts to ferry people from shore to ship.

Aviation is another option. Seaplanes often require minimal facilities as they can take-off/land on water then taxi up to a beach. The Caribbean has a LOT of seaplanes, or at least it usually does - those that weren't moved may well have been destroyed by Irma, those that were moved would have to fly back down to the area. Helicopters can, of course, get in and out of almost anywhere, the downside being they aren't known for having a large passenger capacity. Whether or not you could get a larger airplane onto the island and back out is a different question. It would be an efficient way to move large numbers of people at once, and if you fly from Antigua there should be no need to refuel on Barbuda so it's a matter of a sufficiently long, intact, clear of debris runway. I don't know if Barbuda even has an airport, but a straight stretch of road could work.

The reason I'm mentioning Antigua is because 1) being 40 miles further south it did not sustain a direct hit or suffer as much damage, and 2) Antigua is the other half of the nation Antigua and Barbuda. I'm guessing that most Barbudans would prefer to go to Antigua, where many have relatives, than further afield. Likewise, I'm assuming Antiguans would be willing to shelter their fellow countrymen.

What if some don't want to go back? Well, presumably they could stay in Antigua given they're part of the same nation and there is already back-and-forth between the two islands.

There is some precedent for evacuating large numbers of people from Caribbean islands. Montserrat, for example, had half it's population leave in the 1990's due to volcanic activity that rendered the southern half of the island largely uninhabitable and destroyed the island's capital, airport, and harbor. The population has risen again as infrastructure has been built up on the northern half of the island although it is still not as large as it used to be. The UK granted the Montserratians full residency rights in 1998, giving islanders a place to go. A lot of islands around the world have such agreements with other nations - Puerto Ricans, for example, can easily move to the continental US and various Pacific Islanders likewise. Pitcairn island's population has dropped from a high of 250 to just about 55 today through emigration. There's at least one low-lying island nation in the Pacific (the name escapes me this morning) threatened by rising sea levels that has an agreement with Australia to go there if necessary.

I'm not saying it would be easy, but given the severe destruction on Barbuda and the prospect of maybe another significant hurricane in the near future it might be the safest option for the Barbudans. I'd at least like to see it as an option for those who might in fact want to go elsewhere for awhile.

[Broomstick]

Given that there are only about 2,000 people on Barbuda I wonder if it makes more sense to simple evacuate the entire island until the storms are past, then bring them back and rebuild in better weather?

Might not be worth rebuilding. Aren't the NOAA already tracking a third Category 3 hurricane on its way in? And if this kind of weather is going to be a regular event then the insurance companies are going to be a bit reluctant to cover property that's got a high probability of getting trashed every time there's an unusually mild El Nino season.

Barbuda is a poor island that is part of a small nation that is already heavily dependent on the goodwill of others - I sort of doubt many have insurance.

It may be possible to engineer sturdier buildings, but flooding from storm surge will continue to be a problem - the "highlands" reach a maximum of 38m above sea level and aren't very extensive. The island itself no doubt has some value as both a tourist destination and for agricultural purposes but frankly, yes, it may no longer make sense to have many permanent residents there. Or else set something up to evacuate residents quickly for major storms.

Yeah, that's so awesome! I mean tens of thousands will be homeless and lose everything they own, people will die, and FEMA can barely handle the aftermath of Harvey so everyone without power and water will be shit out of luck once their emergency supplies are gone (if they have any). But Trump's fucking golf course will get flooded so it's aaaalllll worth it!

Deep breath, Flagg - we know these sorts of storms bring back bag memories and trigger your temper, but I'm pretty sure no ill will is intended towards those affected by the hurricane(s).

[LaCroix]

Yeah, that's so awesome! I mean tens of thousands will be homeless and lose everything they own, people will die, and FEMA can barely handle the aftermath of Harvey so everyone without power and water will be shit out of luck once their emergency supplies are gone (if they have any). But Trump's fucking golf course will get flooded so it's aaaalllll worth it!

Never said that. It goes without saying that the rest of Palm Beach will be gone (along with a lot of other settlements), as well, and millions will be affected. I didn't think that I 'd need to point that out.
My focus was more on the fact that a hurricane of that magnitude will actually change the coast line where it hits, significantly.

[Flagg]

Sorry.

[The Romulan Republic]

Yeah, that's so awesome! I mean tens of thousands will be homeless and lose everything they own, people will die, and FEMA can barely handle the aftermath of Harvey so everyone without power and water will be shit out of luck once their emergency supplies are gone (if they have any). But Trump's fucking golf course will get flooded so it's aaaalllll worth it!

Never said that. It goes without saying that the rest of Palm Beach will be gone (along with a lot of other settlements), as well, and millions will be affected. I didn't think that I 'd need to point that out.
My focus was more on the fact that a hurricane of that magnitude will actually change the coast line where it hits, significantly.

I don't think anyone (certainly not myself) is glad that the hurricane is happening.

But I won't deny a little vindictive satisfaction that among the great many innocent victims, at least some of the financial damage will fall on guilty parties as well. Call it karma.

[aerius]

Latest forecast advisories from NWS:
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwa ... ne%20watch

They ain't messing around.

Irma Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 34
National Weather Service Miami FL AL112017
1124 AM EDT Thu Sep 7 2017

FLZ068-072330-
/O.CON.KMFL.HU.A.1011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Metro Palm Beach-
1124 AM EDT Thu Sep 7 2017

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Boca West
- Palm Springs
- Florida Gardens
- Palm Beach Gardens

* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Cat 3 Hurricane force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 95-115 mph with gusts to 150 mph
- Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Saturday afternoon
until Monday morning
- Window for Hurricane force winds: Sunday morning until
early Monday morning

- CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Extreme
- Emergency planning should include a reasonable threat for
major hurricane force wind greater than 110 mph of
equivalent Category 3 intensity or higher.
- To be safe, aggressively prepare for the potential of
devastating to catastrophic wind impacts. Efforts should
now be underway to secure all properties.
- Extremely dangerous and life-threatening wind is possible.
Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury,
loss of life, or immense human suffering.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Devastating to Catastrophic
- Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete
roof and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile
homes. Damage greatly accentuated by large airborne
projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks or
months.
- Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences
and roadway signs blown over.
- Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within
urban or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways,
and access routes impassable.
- Widespread power and communications outages.

[Iroscato]

Jesus Christ. Flagg, I hope you and yours pull through ok. Any chance whatsoever this fucker could blow itself out before it hits the mainland?

[EnterpriseSovereign]

The only good thing about this from Florida's point of view is that they'll have had several days notice to either hunker down or bail, as opposed to it coming out of the blue.

[Vendetta]

Mara Lago's in Florida, isn't it?

I dearly hope that Trump's precious golf resort gets flooded out. If there's any justice, he should have to personally fit the bill for at least part of the damage caused by the climate change he dismisses and ignores.

Oh, who am I kidding? He'll probably find some way to rebuild it using public money. Or loans from Russia.

https://www.google.at/maps/place/Mar-a- ... 80.0369802

It will get devastated for sure - heck, the actual plot it is located on might not be there anymore if Hurricane erosion hits it just right.

Yeah, that's so awesome! I mean tens of thousands will be homeless and lose everything they own, people will die, and FEMA can barely handle the aftermath of Harvey so everyone without power and water will be shit out of luck once their emergency supplies are gone (if they have any). But Trump's fucking golf course will get flooded so it's aaaalllll worth it!

Well we can all look forward to how much of the federal aid budget the king of Trumpton siphons off to rebuild it, anyway.

[Flagg]

Jesus Christ. Flagg, I hope you and yours pull through ok. Any chance whatsoever this fucker could blow itself out before it hits the mainland?

I'm living in WA. But I've been through some nasty storms. I know how bad those were and this makes those look like a mild thunderstorm. I do have family all along the East coast of FL. Several who live just barely north of Palm Beach.

[Vendetta]

Jesus Christ. Flagg, I hope you and yours pull through ok. Any chance whatsoever this fucker could blow itself out before it hits the mainland?

Chances are no. The sea's hot and it looks like it's going to graze the north coast of Cuba, likely to hit the end of Florida as a Cat 4.

[aerius]

About the only things that will weaken it significantly is an eyewall replacement cycle or if it goes over Cuba. Chances of the latter aren't that good if current forecast tracks are accurate, and so far this damn thing has done 2 eyewall replacement cycles and barely weakened.

[Lonestar]

SO was supposed to go down to New Smyrna Beach this weekend for her bridal shower(rich aunt was hosting it). Fortunately, for once in Rich Aunt's life sanity has prevailed and she told SO to stay home. Rich Aunt has decamped for Orlando to stay with her sister, but that only sounds marginally safer than being literally on the beach.

SO's cousin who lives in Miami left Miami at 2200 yesterday(Wednesday) and only got as far as Fort Pierce as of 0600 this morning. Checking the map, that isn't very far given the time. It might have made more sense to head to the west coast of Florida and ride up it, but no one asked me and the cousin wanted to meet up with her in-laws to convoy further north. She's reporting that gas stations within a few miles of the Interstates are all emptied out. I imagine it's only gotten worse since this morning.

The good news, I guess, is that people are taking it seriously ahead of landfall...the bad news is if the pace of movement out of the affected areas doesn't change, there's going to be a lot of dead people on the road.

[Flagg]

SO was supposed to go down to New Smyrna Beach this weekend for her bridal shower(rich aunt was hosting it). Fortunately, for once in Rich Aunt's life sanity has prevailed and she told SO to stay home. Rich Aunt has decamped for Orlando to stay with her sister, but that only sounds marginally safer than being literally on the beach.

SO's cousin who lives in Miami left Miami at 2200 yesterday(Wednesday) and only got as far as Fort Pierce as of 0600 this morning. Checking the map, that isn't very far given the time. It might have made more sense to head to the west coast of Florida and ride up it, but no one asked me and the cousin wanted to meet up with her in-laws to convoy further north. She's reporting that gas stations within a few miles of the Interstates are all emptied out. I imagine it's only gotten worse since this morning.

The good news, I guess, is that people are taking it seriously ahead of landfall...the bad news is if the pace of movement out of the affected areas doesn't change, there's going to be a lot of dead people on the road.

Yeah, FL really only has 3 major routes north. I-95, I-75, and the FL turnpike. Even if they opened the southbound lanes to northbound traffic there would be gridlock.

[Lonestar]

During Rita my Uncle took every Farm-to-Market backroad between Houston and Dallas to my grandparents house in Fort Worth, avoiding the state highways and Interstates. When he rolled in there were people who hadn't gotten past Conroe in the 6 hrs it took for him to get there.

There's a reason why me and the SO have 3 different printed routes to her (mother's) family property in Northern New Hampshire from DC. Everyone will gravitate to the Interstates and highways in an emergency

[Steve]

SO was supposed to go down to New Smyrna Beach this weekend for her bridal shower(rich aunt was hosting it). Fortunately, for once in Rich Aunt's life sanity has prevailed and she told SO to stay home. Rich Aunt has decamped for Orlando to stay with her sister, but that only sounds marginally safer than being literally on the beach.

SO's cousin who lives in Miami left Miami at 2200 yesterday(Wednesday) and only got as far as Fort Pierce as of 0600 this morning. Checking the map, that isn't very far given the time. It might have made more sense to head to the west coast of Florida and ride up it, but no one asked me and the cousin wanted to meet up with her in-laws to convoy further north. She's reporting that gas stations within a few miles of the Interstates are all emptied out. I imagine it's only gotten worse since this morning.

The good news, I guess, is that people are taking it seriously ahead of landfall...the bad news is if the pace of movement out of the affected areas doesn't change, there's going to be a lot of dead people on the road.

Yeah, FL really only has 3 major routes north. I-95, I-75, and the FL turnpike. Even if they opened the southbound lanes to northbound traffic there would be gridlock.

Especially with South Florida. Once you get up toward Central Florida (past Lake Okeechobee) you get at least a few more north/south options like US1, US441, US17, etc. But they can require you to move laterally across the state, which does take time and forces one to drive through towns and such.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

SO was supposed to go down to New Smyrna Beach this weekend for her bridal shower(rich aunt was hosting it). Fortunately, for once in Rich Aunt's life sanity has prevailed and she told SO to stay home. Rich Aunt has decamped for Orlando to stay with her sister, but that only sounds marginally safer than being literally on the beach.

SO's cousin who lives in Miami left Miami at 2200 yesterday(Wednesday) and only got as far as Fort Pierce as of 0600 this morning. Checking the map, that isn't very far given the time. It might have made more sense to head to the west coast of Florida and ride up it, but no one asked me and the cousin wanted to meet up with her in-laws to convoy further north. She's reporting that gas stations within a few miles of the Interstates are all emptied out. I imagine it's only gotten worse since this morning.

The good news, I guess, is that people are taking it seriously ahead of landfall...the bad news is if the pace of movement out of the affected areas doesn't change, there's going to be a lot of dead people on the road.

Yeah, FL really only has 3 major routes north. I-95, I-75, and the FL turnpike. Even if they opened the southbound lanes to northbound traffic there would be gridlock.

Especially with South Florida. Once you get up toward Central Florida (past Lake Okeechobee) you get at least a few more north/south options like US1, US441, US17, etc. But they can require you to move laterally across the state, which does take time and forces one to drive through towns and such.

A Florida resident on the news said he was headed to Orlando with his family. When giving a press conference, one of the officials was most emphatic about the evac being mandatory, and that given that people have had plenty of warning and opportunities to leave, that they were on their own if they choose to remain and get into difficulties.

News footage is showing the traffic as being bumper-to-bumper on one of the major highways.

Some of the British overseas territories are caught in the path (with several thousand tourists), Theresa May has dispatched two ships with troops to assist with relief as well as ~£30m in aid. Apparently there are currently 2,000 British tourists located in Cuba as well.

[Broomstick]

During Rita my Uncle took every Farm-to-Market backroad between Houston and Dallas to my grandparents house in Fort Worth, avoiding the state highways and Interstates. When he rolled in there were people who hadn't gotten past Conroe in the 6 hrs it took for him to get there.

There's a reason why me and the SO have 3 different printed routes to her (mother's) family property in Northern New Hampshire from DC. Everyone will gravitate to the Interstates and highways in an emergency

Indeed.

People laugh at my propensity for carrying paper maps with me, but over the years there have been several occasions when an Interstate became impassible and being able to detour to alternates made a huge difference.

Yes, you can get that information on your smartphone.... if your battery is charged and the access is up and running. Paper maps don't require batteries. There are times when driving 20 mph on backroads is more efficient and faster than attempting an overloaded, gridlocked Interstate.

[Gaidin]

A Florida resident on the news said he was headed to Orlando with his family. When giving a press conference, one of the officials was most emphatic about the evac being mandatory, and that given that people have had plenty of warning and opportunities to leave, that they were on their own if they choose to remain and get into difficulties.

Florida says that about mandatory. But hell, no state can actually enforce it if people don't truly want to evac. Texas asked those that refused to evacuate to mark their arms with their SSN so they could be ID'd after just in case. I wonder if Florida sent such...letters out.

[Zaune]

On another, bleakly amusing note:



They're not wrong.