Iran demands entry to nuclear club
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Just imagine what would happen if religious fanatics who only cared about achieveing paradise got a hold, legally, of nukes. They would dispatch you with the clearest of ease. Suiciders, especially if legalized, would care less about getting killed.
Not every nation would do it, no, but you just cannot tell. The more fanatic the nation, the less reliable it's leaders are and the more reliable a threat they would become.
Nuke deterence only works when both nations actually A. Care about coninuing and aren't fanatic fundamentalists. B. Care about their own people, which many don't do. Even if you return nuke the nation who nuked you, you most likely won't get the leader, since he would damn sure be in some hidden bunker somewhere.
Not every nation would do it, no, but you just cannot tell. The more fanatic the nation, the less reliable it's leaders are and the more reliable a threat they would become.
Nuke deterence only works when both nations actually A. Care about coninuing and aren't fanatic fundamentalists. B. Care about their own people, which many don't do. Even if you return nuke the nation who nuked you, you most likely won't get the leader, since he would damn sure be in some hidden bunker somewhere.
You're speaking as if it happened with Pakistan. It couldn't. Not outside of Tom Clancy plots.Admiral Valdemar wrote:[
As Skimmer pointed out, it's the in-duh-viduals that we worry about. Look at how Pakistan could lose nukes to rogue cells and then imagine it with Iran.
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I say yes for three reasons.
1. It will make it less likely that the US (or any other nation) will ever invade Iran.
2. Despite popular claims to the contrary, I think the people in Iran have enough sense to realize that giving a nuke to terrorists will not help spread/further the cause Islam.
3. It'll piss off Isreal...... alot.
1. It will make it less likely that the US (or any other nation) will ever invade Iran.
2. Despite popular claims to the contrary, I think the people in Iran have enough sense to realize that giving a nuke to terrorists will not help spread/further the cause Islam.
3. It'll piss off Isreal...... alot.
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As mush as i am for pissing off Israel, the the thought of a fundamentalist Islamic theocracy armed with nuclear weapons makes me nervous. If in a couple of years the clerics are run out of power, then it would be different.
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Maybe they could be offered the change: nuclear admission in exchange of nonreligious governement.Col. Crackpot wrote:As mush as i am for pissing off Israel, the the thought of a fundamentalist Islamic theocracy armed with nuclear weapons makes me nervous. If in a couple of years the clerics are run out of power, then it would be different.
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To quote Phil Anselmo: "Fuck no!"
I'd rather wait for their social structure to change itself first, as they're just too bigoted, unpleasant and unstable at the moment to allow them WMDs without being willfully negligent of the outcomes that would likely arise. The general region would probably start thinking "oh shit, both israel and iran have them now, we need them too." Then it'd be something akin to the cold war only with a load of hot-headed middle eastern countries full of fundamentalists with israel right next door.
So no, not until they secularise themselves into a peaceful democracy.
I'd rather wait for their social structure to change itself first, as they're just too bigoted, unpleasant and unstable at the moment to allow them WMDs without being willfully negligent of the outcomes that would likely arise. The general region would probably start thinking "oh shit, both israel and iran have them now, we need them too." Then it'd be something akin to the cold war only with a load of hot-headed middle eastern countries full of fundamentalists with israel right next door.
So no, not until they secularise themselves into a peaceful democracy.
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Iran as it is just can't be trusted. Even if some Mullahs think that reform is inevitable, if they had nukes, they'd try to go out in a "blaze of glory".
If Iran could become a secular democratic nation, I'd think that conventional weapons are enough to defend itself. After all, the only two powers in the area with nukes are Israel and Pakistan, both allies of the US. War between one of them and a secular, rational Iran is unlikely in my opinion.
If Iran could become a secular democratic nation, I'd think that conventional weapons are enough to defend itself. After all, the only two powers in the area with nukes are Israel and Pakistan, both allies of the US. War between one of them and a secular, rational Iran is unlikely in my opinion.
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Hmmmm I don't know about that one. Don't you think they'd use them instead to try blackmailing the U.S. just like that terrorist from "True Lies"?Setzer wrote:Iran as it is just can't be trusted. Even if some Mullahs think that reform is inevitable, if they had nukes, they'd try to go out in a "blaze of glory".
BS wrote
I have a feeling that having 1or2 nukes and trying to use them to blackmail, Would only turn that Country into a SHEET OF GLASS!!!Hmmmm I don't know about that one. Don't you think they'd use them instead to try blackmailing the U.S. just like that terrorist from "True Lies"?
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An offer like this, coming from the Bush Administration, would be rather ironic.Comosicus wrote:Maybe they could be offered the change: nuclear admission in exchange of nonreligious governement.Col. Crackpot wrote:As mush as i am for pissing off Israel, the the thought of a fundamentalist Islamic theocracy armed with nuclear weapons makes me nervous. If in a couple of years the clerics are run out of power, then it would be different.
Seriously, what's the chance that they would actually use these weapons? A nation, unlike a shadowy terrorist group, is a big target that would suffer horribly from the inevitable counterstrike, and even an Islamic nutcase would undoubtedly know this.
The real reason that nobody wants Iran to enter the nuclear club is that they would become much more difficult to bully.
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Fuck yeah!!!!theski wrote:BS wroteI have a feeling that having 1or2 nukes and trying to use them to blackmail, Would only turn that Country into a SHEET OF GLASS!!!Hmmmm I don't know about that one. Don't you think they'd use them instead to try blackmailing the U.S. just like that terrorist from "True Lies"?
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Its essentially rewarding an oppressive totalitarian theocracy for aggressive behavior.The real reason that nobody wants Iran to enter the nuclear club is that they would become much more difficult to bully.
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Nuclear weapons don't serve anything but aggressive purposes; designed to escalate aggression and competition between enemies.
We and the USSR proved this a long time ago.
We and the USSR proved this a long time ago.
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Oh come on dude. Every country which has an armed force and is spending money on improving it is behaving "aggressively" according to that logic. Do you have real examples of Iranian aggression?Illuminatus Primus wrote:Nuclear weapons don't serve anything but aggressive purposes; designed to escalate aggression and competition between enemies.
We and the USSR proved this a long time ago.
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How about nearly every foriegn policy move since the 70's revolution and the siezure of the Tehran Embassy?
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My immediate, sarcastic response to the first post:
"Iran wants a nuclear club? Sure thing, let me warm up this Peacekeeper missile here..."
"Iran wants a nuclear club? Sure thing, let me warm up this Peacekeeper missile here..."
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DEATH TO AMERICA!BoredShirtless wrote:What aggressive behavior?
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Perfectly peaceful and nonaggressive, don't you think?
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Sure, they would know... But this leads to another question: would they care?. Religeous fanatic scan be very unpredictable, especially Muslim ones, who have a nasty tendancy of being suicidal.Darth Wong wrote: A nation, unlike a shadowy terrorist group, is a big target that would suffer horribly from the inevitable counterstrike, and even an Islamic nutcase would undoubtedly know this.
So my answer would be: No nukes for Iran until they have a more secular and trustworthy government. After that, I don't see why not...
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No, no, and hell no.
Let's make the not unreasonable assumption that within the command structure lurk fanatical elements. Let's suppose that by some means the government is going down the tubes and a 'secular' government is arising, again not unreasonable. Exactly what motive would such a fanatic have not to give the nukes to an extremist Islamicist group?
The government of Iran will never use nukes, nor likely give them away. However fanatical individuals in a position of failing power might give them away.
Let's make the not unreasonable assumption that within the command structure lurk fanatical elements. Let's suppose that by some means the government is going down the tubes and a 'secular' government is arising, again not unreasonable. Exactly what motive would such a fanatic have not to give the nukes to an extremist Islamicist group?
The government of Iran will never use nukes, nor likely give them away. However fanatical individuals in a position of failing power might give them away.
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Revolution and the embassy? US' own fault. They were the ones who kicked out the democratically elected leader for being a GASP! filthy dirty socialist who wanted to remove the stranglehold of foreigners on Iran's oil, and replaced him with a worthless tyrant, the Shah. They reaped the whirlwind on that one.Illuminatus Primus wrote:How about nearly every foriegn policy move since the 70's revolution and the siezure of the Tehran Embassy?
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That does not excuse the behaviour and policies of the government that replaced the Shah...Vympel wrote:Revolution and the embassy? US' own fault. They were the ones who kicked out the democratically elected leader for being a GASP! filthy dirty socialist who wanted to remove the stranglehold of foreigners on Iran's oil, and replaced him with a worthless tyrant, the Shah. They reaped the whirlwind on that one.Illuminatus Primus wrote:How about nearly every foriegn policy move since the 70's revolution and the siezure of the Tehran Embassy?
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On the other hand, it forces two nuclear nations to exhaust all other options before resorting to a military solution, because they both know a misstep in using military force against each other could leave their populations decimated by nuclear fire.Illuminatus Primus wrote:Nuclear weapons don't serve anything but aggressive purposes; designed to escalate aggression and competition between enemies.
We and the USSR proved this a long time ago.
You don't think the USA and USSR would have gone at it had it not been for the deterrant force of each other's nuclear arsenals?