Economists! Comments and Opinion on Greek Debt Article

[J]

Hey, Valdemar, J. Let's make a bet. If society has collapsed one year from now, I'll be willing to give you 1000 EUR or, if you'd prefer gold/silver, some of my cufflinks/jewelry/wine/whiskey collection. If society has not collapsed one year from now, you will pay me the same amount.

Don't be stupid. If society collapses there's no way for me to collect on the bet, and even if there were I'd have much more important things to deal with. Besides, I don't bet, and more importantly, I have not made claims that it'll happen within a year.

Oh, by the way, I hear Germany's blown the limit the Maastricht Treaty and that was before the latest round of bailouts. Maybe y'all should just back to the Deutsche Mark, it'll do you good.

[Broomstick]

But as for the breadlines being non-existent, you're quite wrong. The SNAP participation rate in the US is at record levels

It did occur to me recently that the US "breadlines" are well disguised these days due to the SNAP or foodstamps programs - those on such assistance shop at the same stores in the same manner as those not requiring assistance, the only difference is who pays for the groceries. If one in six Americans is receiving government assistance in buying food does that count as "breadlines"?

Yay! Let's redefine the meaning of breadlines to prove a point! Tomorrow, I'm going to redefine the meaning of "murder" so that anytime someone dies, somebody has to be found guilty of their "murder." Then I can claim an epidemic of murders

Well, OK, you have a point there - however, one in six people in the allegedly "wealthiest nation on earth" requiring assistance to obtain food is certainly a Bad Sign of something. The manner in which this aid is distributed is well suited to hiding how many people are affected from casual observation - I don't think that was deliberate, but it is a side effect of the current aid distribution system nonetheless.

But as for the breadlines being non-existent, you're quite wrong. The SNAP participation rate in the US is at record levels, and you can see similar metrics for other things elsewhere e.g. fuel poverty growth in the UK, rationing of electricity in African or Far Eastern nations unable to pay higher commodity rates and so on. Saying peak oil is hot air is also hilarious. And wrong.

Sorry, but as Starglider pointed out, breadlines require shortages in supply - there has been no substantial change in supply or demand. What has changed is the need for government assistance which, while unpleasant, is not the same as breadlines.

No change in supply and demand, just a significant change in ability to obtain said supply. Yes, it's "unpleasant" but there's also something amiss in so many requiring government assistance to obtain such a very basic need.

Anybody reasonable who understands basic economic theory knows that things are bad right now, and likely to get worse; but the handwaving is coming into play because the constant predictions of the collapse of civilization are simply absurd. It's one thing to say, if I can represent your beliefs as follows, "we cannot sustain this level of consumerism, and in the future we can't all have SUV's, 4000 square foot homes, and 50" plasma screen TV's." It's something else to say "THE END IS NIGH!" as others have been doing for the past few years. And it's even more irritating when the constant predictions of catastrophe are wrong... time and time again. They're always "next year," but it's been two years now and civilization still hasn't collapsed.

While I don't think civilization is teetering in quite the manner J and Valdemar imply there HAVE been civilizations that have collapsed catastrophically in the past. It is possible for nightmare situations to occur. It would be foolish to consider ourselves immune, even if we consider that outcome unlikely.

[mr friendly guy]

Anybody reasonable who understands basic economic theory knows that things are bad right now, and likely to get worse; but the handwaving is coming into play because the constant predictions of the collapse of civilization are simply absurd. It's one thing to say, if I can represent your beliefs as follows, "we cannot sustain this level of consumerism, and in the future we can't all have SUV's, 4000 square foot homes, and 50" plasma screen TV's." It's something else to say "THE END IS NIGH!" as others have been doing for the past few years. And it's even more irritating when the constant predictions of catastrophe are wrong... time and time again. They're always "next year," but it's been two years now and civilization still hasn't collapsed.

At least Gordon Chan had the decency to predict China would collapse in 2008 so we can all laugh at his book. Vague predictions of doom and gloom mean jack shit because those who make those predictions can always shift the goalposts when it doesn't happen soon enough.

[Admiral Valdemar]

No, due to the glaring absence of actual lines, which are caused by shortage of foodstuffs themselves.

There wasn't in the Great Depression either, but they still appeared. No one ever made a distinction about how the breadlines came about, so it's splitting hairs, although with a fuel shortage it can happen from simple delivery and we have historical precedent that the system can collapse very quickly that way in this country.

Regardless, they exist, even if in another form to what they used to. Anyone actually expecting Hooverville in Central Park again to deal with jobs and food is missing the changes to society since then, much like how some job numbers look peachy next to the Great Depression because of the way they're now calculated.

At least Gordon Chan had the decency to predict China would collapse in 2008 so we can all laugh at his book. Vague predictions of doom and gloom mean jack shit because those who make those predictions can always shift the goalposts when it doesn't happen soon enough.

Point out the exact date the Western Roman Empire collapsed. When you figure out the point I'm getting at, you'll realise why betting on a single year for collapse like it's some Hollywood disaster movie is utterly absurd. No one said anything about the world suddenly becoming hell with an error margin or a day. A civilisation can happily collapse over decades, all the while there'll be those J. Ismays about who will proclaim the next golden age is upon us, as they are now, while unemployment rises from an increasingly chaotic economic market, the biosphere is irreparably damaged and climate drastically altered, and our limited resources are eaten away. If you disagree with any of those events listed that are contributing, say now. I have yet to see anyone argue against either happening, yet we're all to assume everything is going to be just all right again, because... it always has?

I'm withdrawing from this now anyway. I simply don't care any more and my own health is going to be my limiting factor on this planet now, and I'm frankly fucking sick of arguing this subject and having it stick in my mind day in, day out.

[Thanas]

Hey, Valdemar, J. Let's make a bet. If society has collapsed one year from now, I'll be willing to give you 1000 EUR or, if you'd prefer gold/silver, some of my cufflinks/jewelry/wine/whiskey collection. If society has not collapsed one year from now, you will pay me the same amount.

Don't be stupid. If society collapses there's no way for me to collect on the bet, and even if there were I'd have much more important things to deal with.

The sound you hear is chickens doing their dance.

Besides, I don't bet, and more importantly, I have not made claims that it'll happen within a year.

My apologies, you are right. You do not make specific claims, you just paint a nebulous picture that does one thing with exceeding accuracy - claim the end of the economy/oil supply/breadlines. How many of those were correct so far, btw?

[J]

My apologies, you are right. You do not make specific claims, you just paint a nebulous picture that does one thing with exceeding accuracy - claim the end of the economy/oil supply/breadlines. How many of those were correct so far, btw?

1) I have never made claims about breadlines. However, there's a litttle problem known as Ug99 which you might want to keep an eye on. Norman Borlaug, before his death last year was quite concerned with this particular crop disease and felt it could cause a global food crisis if scientists were unable to develop and distribute resistant wheat varieties in time.

2) We were saved from oil supply problems by the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. As of 2007 and 2008, there were shortages of diesel and gasoline in the Prairie states in the US and there was no gasoline to be found within a 2 hour radius of Atlanta during a good part of September 2008. When there was gasoline to be found it was rationed. Continue the consumption growth for a few more years and those shortages become far more widespread.

3) I've said that WaMu, Wachovia, Lehmans, Freddie, and Fannie would all be dead while others were claiming it would never happen. They're all dead or nationalized.

By the way Thanas, you're a history person right? I highly recommend reading through this book which is a historical study of government debt defaults and the conditions which are present when they occur. Then tell me why it's different this time.

[mr friendly guy]

Point out the exact date the Western Roman Empire collapsed. When you figure out the point I'm getting at, you'll realise why betting on a single year for collapse like it's some Hollywood disaster movie is utterly absurd.

Unfalsiable claims are only bad when Creationists do it. Am I right?

No one said anything about the world suddenly becoming hell with an error margin or a day.

Well actually Gordon Chan predicted China's collapse within 5 years from when he published his book, which would make it 2008 at the latest. I wouldn't call that sudden, moreover any doomsayer can widen the error margin by predicting a later date.

A civilisation can happily collapse over decades,

Ah so I have nothing to worry about. I will most probably be dead by then. Unless I am resurrected by the power of the quickening, then there can be only one.

all the while there'll be those J. Ismays about who will proclaim the next golden age is upon us, as they are now, while unemployment rises from an increasingly chaotic economic market, the biosphere is irreparably damaged and climate drastically altered, and our limited resources are eaten away.

Hey did I mention I got a payrise this year followed by tax cuts?

What, you didn't like the flippant response to your rar rar doom scenario? Did you expect us to worry ourselves incessantly (like you do) with petrol prices or some other economic news of the week. Life goes on mate.

If you disagree with any of those events listed that are contributing, say now.

I don't believe any of your opponents have actually disagreed with those contributory factors. But then one would expect you to know which parts of your position they agree and disagree with by now, no?

I'm withdrawing from this now anyway. I simply don't care any more and my own health is going to be my limiting factor on this planet now, and I'm frankly fucking sick of arguing this subject and having it stick in my mind day in, day out.

I find it hilarious that you are sick of this subject yet apparently others aren't sick of you posting it, even in threads which are at best tangential to your pet topics. I mean threads about China's high speed railway systems get derailed into talks about resource shortages. What's next? A Doctor Who review thread where you point out that BBC cannot continue to fund such special effects because of British government debt, or some other shit like that?