Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

[Crazedwraith]

Biden's making a statement Pledging to defend NATO countries and not Ukraine beyond sanctions.

[GrosseAdmiralFox]

Biden's making a statement Pledging to defend NATO countries and not Ukraine beyond sanctions.

Largely because 1) that would require NATO getting on-board, and 2) has a very large chance of having Putin pull out the tac-nukes, and we all know where that leads...

[LadyTevar]

So. We'll move into the other nations, but Ukraine can hang.
Pretty much what I expected.

Meanwhile, Germany put a halt on the Gas Pipeline:
Nord Stream 2 Certification Halted

It's built, but it wasn't certified to open, so there's nothing really lost as yet.

[Broomstick]

https://twitter.com/afp/status/1496869477820026892?s=21

AFP reporting that Russian and Ukrainian forces are fighting at Chernobyl.

Chernobyl.

Jesus Christ have they all gone mad…

No, it actually does makes sense in a twisted "we're at war" sort of way.

The immediate area around the plant is actually relatively safe, outside of the sarcophagus is relatively safe... but there are still some nasty hotspots in the area, not to mention the radioactive shit-show inside the old damaged parts of the plant.

[Broomstick]

Yes, let's try to avoid WWIII. Ukraine is fucked. I wish I could come up with a way to un-fuck the situation but it's beyond my knowledge and talents.

Then prepare for a world that is constantly at war and largely out for itself and basically a return to the old colonial empires and constant warfare... because that's where we're heading.

Yes, we might be... as I said, I don't have a solution for the current situation. I hope someone else does.

Guerilla warfare can tire out an adversary which, as we've seen over the past 70-80 years, can lead to a more powerful adversary pulling out. It's not guaranteed to work and it's very costly in lives. Afghanistan managed the trick against not just one but two superpowers: the USSR and the US. It left the country a wreck, but eventually the other guys went back home.

That relied on two factors: the uninterceptablility of the funding and the recognition of evolving from a guerilla force to a genuine military and undertaking that evolution.

You left out that the superpowers in question didn't actually go all out in their efforts. I don't know how far Putin is going to take things in this instance and neither does anyone else.

Ground war. Cyberattacks.

A ground war where NATO sends troops is literally out of the question (Russian nuclear weapons policy) and getting cyberattacks to Russia requires them to be complacent and not have their defenses up, which neither is a thing right now.

We don't know where this goes. If the current fighting spills over into NATO territory things get even uglier. I also have no doubt that cyberattacks are occurring right now, but that's not a fight we see. Who knows which ones are or aren't getting through?

No, it's just that people can't wrap their heads around wars in general.

That, too.

And if you can't win a war with Russia on your own and can't ally with someone else willing to do it for you at some point that really just leaves hashing out what being a Russian vassal state means and making the best possible deal.

There will be no deal, I'm afraid...

I suspect with Ukrainian defiance Putin will want to make an example of them.

[Broomstick]

So. We'll move into the other nations, but Ukraine can hang.

Hate to say it, but if the alternative to letting Ukraine get raped is global thermonuclear war then I'm really, really sorry about Ukraine. Is it really that bad? I honestly don't know. I know we don't have access to all the information and for a lot of statements I'm relying on translations so who knows what subtleties may or may not be lost?

[Tribble]

So. We'll move into the other nations, but Ukraine can hang.

Hate to say it, but if the alternative to letting Ukraine get raped is global thermonuclear war then I'm really, really sorry about Ukraine. Is it really that bad? I honestly don't know. I know we don't have access to all the information and for a lot of statements I'm relying on translations so who knows what subtleties may or may not be lost?

While I oppose the invasion and think Russia should be fully sanctioned, I’m not prepared to die over it, sorry.

It would also be nice if we stopped invading other countries for our own political reasons, but good luck with that.

[ray245]

With the amount of Ukrainians fleeing the conflict, I don't think the vast majority of the population are prepared to die fighting either. Sure, those in the Ukraine military seemed willing to fight, but all the talk about a widespread people-led insurgency is unlikely.

[Broomstick]

People unable to fight really should get out of the way, so the ones that do fight don't have to worry about accidentally hitting the people they're fighting for.

[KraytKing]

With the amount of Ukrainians fleeing the conflict, I don't think the vast majority of the population are prepared to die fighting either. Sure, those in the Ukraine military seemed willing to fight, but all the talk about a widespread people-led insurgency is unlikely.

THIS is a claim in need of context. I sort of agree with your conclusion, but I wouldn't think this is a valid way to reach it. How many Ukrainians are fleeing? How many Iraqis fled in 2003, how many Afghans, how many Syrians? I would wager a fucking lot of them, but all of those nations had violent insurgencies. Unless we're seeing vastly more Ukrainians fleeing than we see in nations that pursue insurgencies, there's no reason to yet expect that this fight won't see one.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

The other 5 countries that share a border with Ukraine (not counting Belarus) should put their militaries on alert if they haven't done so already, if for no other reason than they're going to be seeing an absolute flood of refugees- Ukraine has a population of 44 million after all. Poland, Romania and most significantly Moldova have the longest shared borders with Ukraine, Slovakia and Hungary less so. Notably, Moldova is not a NATO member and unless they want to be next will most likely be pushing for membership.

[Col. Crackpot]

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-cher ... 50a73a1bb5

AP reporting that radioactive waste repository at Chernobyl was hit by a Russian artillery shell. Increase in radiation detected.. no word on how bad yet.

This is nightmare fuel.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-cher ... 50a73a1bb5

AP reporting that radioactive waste repository at Chernobyl was hit by a Russian artillery shell. Increase in radiation detected.. no word on how bad yet.

This is nightmare fuel.

From another board:

I checked the winds forecast for next few days - winds to the north (if you live in Finland you might be worried) then to East (karma is a bitch) then to South later to the weekend.

[GrosseAdmiralFox]

Yes, we might be... as I said, I don't have a solution for the current situation. I hope someone else does.

This heavily depends on how the situation evolves...

You left out that the superpowers in question didn't actually go all out in their efforts. I don't know how far Putin is going to take things in this instance and neither does anyone else.

Which is a problem with people who are more nostalgic than rational.

We don't know where this goes. If the current fighting spills over into NATO territory things get even uglier. I also have no doubt that cyberattacks are occurring right now, but that's not a fight we see. Who knows which ones are or aren't getting through?

True, then there is the whole memetic/information war to take into account.

That, too.

Yes, though to be honest I probably have a slightly better understanding of war than usual due to my obsession back when I was a kid.

I suspect with Ukrainian defiance Putin will want to make an example of them.

Definitely, a certain famine-genocide 2.0 is probably in the future... if the Russians win anyway.

From what I've heard, a Russian platoon went up and gave up.

[LadyTevar]

Well Well Well.. HERE'S an interesting development:

Interesting worm turning at the U.N. Via Twitter:
Hayes Brown @HayesBrown
So something interesting that could be developing at the UN: Ukraine appears to be laying the groundwork to challenge whether the Russian Federation is the legitimate successor to the USSR’s seat and veto on the Security Council

[Zaune]

Raises the question of who else they had in mind, but there's got to be a limited number of worse alternative candidates at the moment.

[Ralin]

So, to be clear...

Putin himself announced he's sending troops into the two territories he claims now as independent republics. My question is, if he already had troops there, is it really an invasion? It's like when Obama sent troops to Syria, then Il Douchebag sent more. Does that mean Trump "invaded" Syria, or that he was just maintaining the status quo? If Biden sends more men to Syria, does that count as three invasions?

If this seems like semantics-whoring, it's not. The media have been hair-on-fire hysterical about Putin's "INVASION OMG!" of two regions that he's already had troops and heavy equipment parked in for eight years.

Are we all on the same page that now Russia is invading Ukraine?

[His Divine Shadow]

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-cher ... 50a73a1bb5

AP reporting that radioactive waste repository at Chernobyl was hit by a Russian artillery shell. Increase in radiation detected.. no word on how bad yet.

This is nightmare fuel.

Not really, not to me, and I live in Finland.

[Broomstick]

The other 5 countries that share a border with Ukraine (not counting Belarus) should put their militaries on alert if they haven't done so already, if for no other reason than they're going to be seeing an absolute flood of refugees

I was able to listen to the news yesterday while at work. Apparently Poland was already accepting many, many refugees yesterday and are trying set up a system for accepting and caring for them. Good on them. Haven’t heard about the other nations but I hope they are/able to do the same. There was talk of other NATO countries sending aid for handling refugees as well. Hope that comes to pass as well.

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-cher ... 50a73a1bb5

AP reporting that radioactive waste repository at Chernobyl was hit by a Russian artillery shell. Increase in radiation detected.. no word on how bad yet.

This is nightmare fuel.

The reports on that were ambiguous when I went to bed last night, but radiation doesn’t lie. I am very, very sorry to hear that.

However, so much depends on how much radiation, its source material, and time and distance also mitigate the situation. It’s the people right next door to the “waste deposit” who have risk, not those hundreds of kilometers away. How much danger remains to be seen.

While most of the exclusion zone is OK to visit there are still some serious hot spots here and there. Soldiers stumbling into those might wind up in a bad situation.

From what I've heard, a Russian platoon went up and gave up.

Yes, that’s making the rounds. Clearly, support for Putin is not universal and that may be his undoing...eventually. Meanwhile people die. Would not be surprised if Putin spins that story as the platoon being taken prisoner and mistreated. Meanwhile, those men can not go back to Russia. I hope their story ends well.

Well Well Well.. HERE'S an interesting development:

Interesting worm turning at the U.N. Via Twitter:
Hayes Brown @HayesBrown
So something interesting that could be developing at the UN: Ukraine appears to be laying the groundwork to challenge whether the Russian Federation is the legitimate successor to the USSR’s seat and veto on the Security Council

Raises the question of who else they had in mind, but there's got to be a limited number of worse alternative candidates at the moment.

Does there have to be a successor?

Also, Ukraine is making the argument that the Russian Federation was never properly admitted to the UN.

If it wasn’t so damn serious and life-and-death it would be fascinating how this war is being fought on so many levels.

[Col. Crackpot]

So, to be clear...

Putin himself announced he's sending troops into the two territories he claims now as independent republics. My question is, if he already had troops there, is it really an invasion? It's like when Obama sent troops to Syria, then Il Douchebag sent more. Does that mean Trump "invaded" Syria, or that he was just maintaining the status quo? If Biden sends more men to Syria, does that count as three invasions?

If this seems like semantics-whoring, it's not. The media have been hair-on-fire hysterical about Putin's "INVASION OMG!" of two regions that he's already had troops and heavy equipment parked in for eight years.

Are we all on the same page that now Russia is invading Ukraine?

That is a very good question. Though it would appear that Elfdart anti imperialist creds only apply when it doesn’t involve an empire he likes. Don’t waste your breath.

[Col. Crackpot]

https://www.haaretz.com/amp/israel-news ... 1.10632804

Jews are fleeing the Russian “de-nazification” forces en masse. Remember, Russian forces were sent with the expressed purpose of de-nazifying the country with the democratically elected Jew as president.

[ray245]

So, to be clear...

Putin himself announced he's sending troops into the two territories he claims now as independent republics. My question is, if he already had troops there, is it really an invasion? It's like when Obama sent troops to Syria, then Il Douchebag sent more. Does that mean Trump "invaded" Syria, or that he was just maintaining the status quo? If Biden sends more men to Syria, does that count as three invasions?

If this seems like semantics-whoring, it's not. The media have been hair-on-fire hysterical about Putin's "INVASION OMG!" of two regions that he's already had troops and heavy equipment parked in for eight years.

Are we all on the same page that now Russia is invading Ukraine?

That is a very good question. Though it would appear that Elfdart anti imperialist creds only apply when it doesn’t involve an empire he likes. Don’t waste your breath.

To be fair, both empires' modus operandi aren't that different. It's not like the US respected Iraq's sovereignty when it invaded, even if Saddam was a legit horrible dictator.

Of course Ukraine isn't under the same sort of dictatorship that Iraq was under, but the ability of the five great powers to essentially define justification for conflict are similar.

Any nation posing a security threat to any of them is met with an invasion that's technically not called one because of international law reasons.

https://www.haaretz.com/amp/israel-news ... 1.10632804

Jews are fleeing the Russian “de-nazification” forces en masse. Remember, Russian forces were sent with the expressed purpose of de-nazifying the country with the democratically elected Jew as president.

As much as I hate Putin and Russian's poor justification of a war, let's not put Zelenskyy up too much of a pedestal as if he is some liberal democrat.

Ukraine is hardly a liberal democracy to speak off, even if it is slightly better than Russia.

[ray245]

The biggest issue for the West is none of their sanctions will really hurt Russia in any real way as long as they are still reliant on Russian's gas export. The West can protest as much as they want, but they aren't going to be taking actions that will hurt its own citizens' standard of living in any real way.

Until the Western population is actually willing to bear the cost-of-living difficulties that is going to be involved in a more effective sanction measures against Russia, all the talk about helping Ukraine is useless.

People are willing to accept the price of gas remains the same more so than caring about Ukraine. And Russia/Putin knows this well. Western Europe is still far too reliant on Russia for its gas exports.

That's what happens when groups campaigned for the closing down of nuclear power while not ensuring there are suitable green energy infrastructure in place before hand.

[Broomstick]

Jews are fleeing the Russian “de-nazification” forces en masse. Remember, Russian forces were sent with the expressed purpose of de-nazifying the country with the democratically elected Jew as president.

Zelenskyy is Jewish? Dang, I had no idea - we really are everywhere, aren't we?

[Broomstick]

The biggest issue for the West is none of their sanctions will really hurt Russia in any real way as long as they are still reliant on Russian's gas export. The West can protest as much as they want, but they aren't going to be taking actions that will hurt its own citizens' standard of living in any real way.

Given the percentage of fuel for Germany and Italy that comes from Russia for many it's not just a "standard of living" but more like how in the hell are they going to keep warm in winter?

Which predicament no doubt amuses Putin, I'm sure.