Ukraine War Thread

[fgalkin]

Here is a rundown of Putin's recent press conference.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wor ... onference/

He still denies that the troops of the Crimea are Russian. THAT is the official line of the Russian government. THIS is what Kremlin propaganda is like.


To Flagg, Thanas, and anyone else accusing people of being "Kremlin propagandists," this is why you're wrong.

Have a very nice day.
-fgalkin

[Edi]

Flagg, perhaps it is best if you step back and refrain from posting in this thread. It does not do anyone any good if you keep up in this vein.

[Thanas]

Here is a rundown of Putin's recent press conference.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wor ... onference/

He still denies that the troops of the Crimea are Russian. THAT is the official line of the Russian government. THIS is what Kremlin propaganda is like.


To Flagg, Thanas, and anyone else accusing people of being "Kremlin propagandists," this is why you're wrong.

Have a very nice day.
-fgalkin

One is hardly exclusive of the other.

Like others said, the Kremlin and people associated with it try to throw everything and the kitchen sink at the Ukraine in order to smear it as fascist, anti-Russian, anti-democratic, oligarchic etc and hoping something sticks. The mere fact that some lies are more outrageous does not make the other ones any less so.

the only provocation there was was the repeal of the Russian language. That has since not gone through. So Putin's got what left to crow about? Oh yeah, claiming the Ukraine is the bogeyman of the week. That is why you see shit like "Ukraine number 1 terrorist hub" being pushed by Russian state media. Focusing on Ukraininian fascists is also funny considering Russia uses fascist biker gangs as its own dogs and that the crimean tatars were told to stay at home lest something happen *nudge nudge*.

Indeed it was trolling, now i see it clearly.

Yes, you got me all figured out, now go run your RUSSIA #1 show. You are lagging on your daily "UKRAINE WORST EVER" quotes from Russian and pro-Russian media (preferably continue posting them in a language nobody understands here besides Russian, that will prove things).

As for situation with Russian troops- there is many contradicting info about defections of Ukraine soldiers and actions of Russian troops from both sides so one must refrain from some definite conclusions.

Unless the western media is engaged in a secret plot to harm Russia this is the most hilarious statement I have read from you yet. No no, don't trust those pictures on twitter and the people there because....

But answer me this: Do you believe Putin has a right to invade other nations as soon as he (and he himself, not neutral parties) decides some nebulous threat (which has not materialized) to Russian citizens is there?

[Thanas]

A good piece on the Russian propaganda.

Anyone spending any amount of time in Crimea at the moment will hear the words "Nazi" and "fascist" a lot. The protests in Kiev, people across the region will insist, were a Nazi-inspired revolt, backed by the west, and that is why the Russian operation to "protect" Crimea from such Nazis was so necessary.

Certainly, there were unsavoury elements among the Kiev protests, and there are a number of people with unpleasant far-right views that hold positions in the new interim government. Many people in western Ukraine do hold complicated views about the wartime period, and many in Russia are understandably concerned by the veneration by small parts of the protest movement of controversial collaborationist leaders.

"You Brits don't understand about fascism but we fought against Nazi Germany," said a 62-year-old Simferopol resident, Viktor Varazin. "We know what fascism is and we will never let it take hold here. Thank God the Russians are here."

Russian state television has gone out of its way to manufacture an image of the protests as a uniquely sinister phenomenon; a far-right movement backed by the west with the ultimate goal of destabilising Russia.

Back in December, a Russian state television reporter doing a live report from Kiev was accosted by a protester on air and had an Oscar statuette thrust into his hands. "Pass this Oscar to your channel … for the lies and nonsense you are telling people about Maidan," he said.

Since then, the rhetoric has only intensified on Russian television. In the last week, there have been claims that gangs of "unknown armed people" have crossed from Ukraine into Russia, without offering any evidence. There have also been suggestions that hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian "refugees" have been forced to flee Ukraine for Russia, prompting a humanitarian crisis. (The pictures used by one Russian channel of border queues turned out to be routine queues at a Ukraine-Poland border.)

News programmes regularly refer to the Kiev protesters as "terrorists", "insurgents" or "fighters", and the rightwing and anti-Russian nature is emphasised. It is not just Russian media peddling the rumours. Opposition-minded channels in Ukraine have also been full of misinformation, although it is often a case of unverified rumours reported as fact. There was barely a day in January and February when Ukrainian media did not report planeloads of Russian special forces secretly landing in Kiev, or other nefarious but implausible manoeuvres by Viktor Yanukovych.

But perhaps the most disturbing thing about the Russian propaganda is that it is clear that many inside the Kremlin actually believe it. In December, a Russian government source assured the Guardian that the Kiev protests were the preserve of radical marginals, and that the rest of the city had no time at all for its goals.

On Tuesday, Putin conceded that he understood that there were some normal people on Independence Square who were tired of Ukrainian corruption, but there is nevertheless a sense in the Kremlin that the entire protest was a western-backed plot, as evidenced by Putin's claims that they were organised by "people sitting in America doing experiments, like on rats".

An insight into the thinking is given by Sergei Markov, a Kremlin-connected analyst and politician, who is in Crimea meeting with local officials. When asked for his view on the Kiev protests, he said: "The plan it seems to me to was very clear. Give Ukraine a Mikheil Saakashvili type leader. Start a big anti-Russian campaign, train the army to Nato standards, fill everyone with anti-Russian ideology, and then throw the Ukrainian army into Russia at a time when a coup is being organised. I haven't spoken to Putin about it personally, but I am certain he thinks the same."

On the ground in Crimea, what is particularly odd is that the most vociferous defenders of Russian bases against supposed fascists appear to hold far-right views themselves.

Outside the Belbek airbase, an aggressive self-defence group said they were there to defend the base against "Kiev fascists", but also railed against Europe, "full of repulsive gays and Muslims".

"What you foreigners don't get is that those people in Maidan, they are fascists," said Alexander, a Simferopol resident drinking at a bar in the city on Monday night. "I mean, I am all for the superiority of the white race, and all that stuff, but I don't like fascists."

Even among less radical locals, there is a strong conviction that the western press has lied about the conflict and tension. Journalists have been physically attacked on several occasions, and crowds will frequently berate western reporters for their biased coverage.

"We know you have your orders from your masters to destroy Russia, but try to explain the truth – we welcome the Russians here because we don't want to live among fascists," said one angry woman outside a surrounded Ukrainian marines base in Feodosia on Sunday.

For all that state television has been pushing the Nazi comparisons, there is rather less tolerance when the boot is on the other foot. Andrei Zubov, a professor at a top Moscow university linked to the diplomatic service, wrote a column in the respected Vedomosti newspaper on Saturday comparing Putin's potential annexation of Crimea with the Anschluss of Austria and Nazi Germany in 1938. On Tuesday, he said the university had fired him for the comparison.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Russia reports ballistic missile test amid Crimea tension

The Russian military says it has test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile, as tension continues over Ukraine's Crimea region.

A Topol RS-12M missile was launched from Russia's Kapustin Yar test range near the Caspian Sea to the Sary Shagan range in Kazakhstan, it said.

It comes after the US accused Russia of an "act of aggression" in Crimea.

The US said it was given advance notice of the missile launch, as required by bilateral arms treaties.

"We have been notified of this test earlier this week, it's not unexpected," a defence official told the AFP news agency.

The Topol was fired at 22:10 (18:10 GMT), the defence ministry in Moscow said, adding: "The aim of the launch was to test a promising intercontinental ballistic missile payload."

The nuclear-capable missile reached its target successfully, the ministry said.

The BBC's diplomatic correspondent Jonathan Marcus says such tests are planned long in advance, but that it inevitably adds another element of Cold War-style tension to the current crisis.

Link

[Thanas]

^The missile test was routine and the Pentagon knew about it in advance through Russian channels. I wouldn't read anything into it.



Statement by Hague on Janukovich:

https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/ ... in-ukraine

The Russian government has argued that there is no legitimate government in Kyiv, but the incumbent Ukrainian President abandoned his post, and the subsequent decisions of the Ukrainian Parliament have been carried by large majorities, required under the constitution, including from members of the former President’s party, the Party of Regions. The suggestion that a President who has fled his country then has any authority whatsoever to invite the forces of a neighbouring country into that country is baseless.

Russia has also argued that Russian-speaking minorities in Ukraine are in danger, but no evidence of that threat has been presented. Furthermore, international diplomatic mechanisms exist to provide assurance on the situations of national minorities, including within the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe and the Council of Europe. These mechanisms are the way to secure assurances of protection of the rights of minorities, not the breaking of international agreements and the use of armed force.

I commend the Ukrainian government for responding to this extreme situation with a refusal to be provoked. The Ukrainian armed forces have been placed on full combat readiness, but the Government has affirmed that it will not use force, and I have urged them to maintain this position. However, there is clearly a grave risk of escalation or miscalculation, and a threat to hard-won peace and security in Europe.

[Thanas]

Meanwhile in Donetsk:

nside the occupied government building, teenagers strolled through the regional council chamber and took selfies in the speaker's chair, now flanked by the flags of Russia and the Soviet-era independent republic of Donetsk.

Riot policemen with shields and helmets lined the corridors, but they seemed in no particular hurry to remove the pro-Russian activists who had burst into the 11-storey building a day before and appointed their own "people's governor".

"We will not leave until our demands are met," said Olexsander, aged 42, a self-appointed commander in the "local resistance" camped out in the council chamber. "Donetsk belongs with Russia," he said.

Pro-Russian groups have called on local deputies to declare the government in Kiev illegitimate, to put all security forces under regional control and to withhold taxes from the capital. They also want a referendum on the region's future status – although they have yet to agree on the question to be asked, and the new government in Kiev has said that any such vote would be illegal.

But while the Russian tricolour still fluttered over the parliament building on Tuesday night, hundreds of protesters gathered in the square outside, waving the blue and yellow flag of Ukraine, and calling for the country to come together in unity.

In the wake of Russia's armed intervention in Crimea, tensions are simmering across the Russian-speaking provinces of eastern Ukraine.

Reports that Russian military vehicles had gathered on Ukraine's border near Kharkiv, Donetsk and Luhansk have triggered rumours that the Kremlin is preparing to pull another intervention in Ukraine's eastern regions.

Kiev says Moscow has organised the demonstrations and sent hundreds of Russian citizens across the frontier to stage protests which would provide the pretext for a military advance – a charge which was vehemently denied by protestors in the Donetsk parliament.

"I can tell you from my heart this is absolutely not true. The people here are only locals," said Olexsander.

Large pro-Russian demonstrations have been held in Odessa, Kharkiv and Donetsk, and Russian flags raised atop administrative buildings. The Kharkiv protests descended into violence when counter-demonstrators calling for Ukrainian unity were badly beaten by Russian nationalists.

The deep divisions in Donetsk – the home town of ousted president Viktor Yanukovych – were acted out over the course of the day in a series of rival protests for and against Ukrainian unity.

Many locals feel marginalised by the new administration in Kiev, which they describe as the fruit of a power grab by pro-Western "bandits".

In the morning, several hundred people gathered outside the occupied parliament, calling for eastern Ukraine to join Russia. Addressing the crowd over a loudspeaker, one woman asked why the pro-European demonstrators had been consecrated as heroes, while the Berkut riot police unit – blamed for the deaths of dozens of protesters – has been disbanded.

"Why are our boys not heroes? They suffered in Kiev. They were beaten and humiliated, made to go on their knees. Now they are all forgotten. They were just fired from their jobs. If they had not protected us, then those mad protesters would have burnt the whole of Kiev," she said.

Tensions ran high when a pro-Europe group mounted a counter-demonstration. "We are not trying to separate the country," said one man angrily. "The protesters in Kiev pretended to stand for peace and freedom, but they are hijacking the whole country".

But later on a string of "pro-unity" demonstrations across the city attracted people from many walks of life.

Waving a Ukrainian flag alongside several other local clergy, Maxim Gorinov, 37, a pastor at a local evangelical church, said he wanted Donetsk to stay in Ukraine.

"I am Russian, my family speaks Russian, but I am against separatism. We don't want Russian troops here to separate us by force," he said.

Significantly, the unity movement in Donetsk is backed by "ultras" – fanatical supporters of the local Shakhtar football club, one of Ukraine's two top teams. In the violent street protests which eventually forced Yanukovych to flee the country, Shakhtar ultras fought alongside their arch-rivals from Kiev's Dynamo. On Sunday the ultras from each team played against each other in the country's capital in a continued display of unity. The game ended in an uncontroversial 1-1 draw.

On Tuesday evening the largest pro-unity rally in Donetsk attracted more than one thousand people. Protesters carried Ukrainian flags and chanted "Donbas is Ukraine" and "Putin go home". Shakhtar football club ultras flanked ordinary demonstrators saying they were there "to protect the people".

"Why should we have a referendum? It is unconstitutional for Donetsk to do this on its own", said Dimitry Goryainov, a urologist who joined the rally. "We are against the separation of Ukraine," he added. "The main problem here is people are scared the new government needs to reassure them by calling parliamentary elections after the presidential election."

Even the members of the local Cossacks – a staunchly pro-Russian group – are firmly against military intervention by Moscow.

"Ukraine can solve its internal problems on its own," said the Cossacks' leader, Vadim Zhmarin. "We are against any troops entering Ukrainian soil – Nato or Russia," he added.

Unity activists' leaders claimed a moral victory, and said an even bigger march will be held on Wednesday. Alex Ryabchyn, a unity activist and PhD student, said he had never seen so many Ukrainian flags flying in Donetsk as he had now. "This really is a historical day for our city," he added.

Inside the parliament, pro-Russian demonstrators bedded down for the night.

It seems as if in Eastern Ukraine the seperatists are not as strong as they think they are.

[SCRawl]

The Flagg/fgalkin exchange has been split to here. If they wish to continue it, they may do so there, though with fewer (ideally zero) Nazi references. The rest of you, please carry on.

[Vympel]

This article in the Nation has it pretty accurate

Relevant excerpts:

We should take a deep breath—and a sober look—before committing treasure and prestige to a still unsettled new leadership in a country on Russia’s border—one that has had a fragile independent existence for barely two decades. Some history would also serve us well if we’re to understand fast-moving developments. With Russia moving troops into Crimea, we are now reaping the bitter fruit of a deeply flawed post–Cold War settlement that looks more like Versailles than Bretton Woods, a settlement inflamed by the short-sighted American decision to expand NATO eastward and pursue other policies aimed at isolating Russia and ignoring Russian interests.

Russia’s dispatch of military forces to Crimea is a clear violation of international law, as the Obama administration has stated. Putin justifies the invasion as necessary to protect Russian citizens and allies, but this is an unacceptable fig leaf. The administration is right to condemn it, as should the world community, although much of the world will grimace at the irony of Secretary Kerry denouncing an invasion of a sovereign country as unacceptable in the twenty-first century, when the United States is only now winding down its “war of choice” against Iraq, which is thousands of miles away from the United States. Crimea, of course, not only borders on Russia but houses its Black Sea fleet, which, by treaty agreement between Ukraine and Russia, is set to remain there until at least 2042. Crimea historically was part of Russia until 1954, when Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev transferred it to Ukraine in what many viewed as a gesture of goodwill.

Viktor Yanukovych was unpopular, corrupt and compromised, but he was the democratically elected president of Ukraine. He had been steering the country toward an “Association Agreement” with the European Union last fall when he reversed course after Russia offered $15 billion in financial aid to the all-but bankrupt country. That led to street demonstrations, spurred in part by the EU and the United States, which eventually sent Yanukovych packing.

Ukraine is deeply divided. As David Speedie, director of US Global Engagement at the Carnegie Council of Ethics in International Affairs, says, “In simple terms, half of the people in Ukraine look to Russia and the other half look to the West.” As Nicolai Petro demonstrates in his March 3 report at TheNation.com, the new leaders in Kiev include right-wing ultra-nationalists who, in one of their first acts, repealed the 2012 law allowing Russian and other minority languages to be used locally. (That measure was reversed, but not before arousing deep mistrust and fear in semi-autonomous Crimea and many other parts of eastern and southern Ukraine, which is populated largely by Russian speakers.) It is also worth noting that a key ally of the new government, holding central leadership positions in Parliament and law enforcement, is the Svoboda Party, which the European Parliament has condemned for its “racist, anti-Semitic and xenophobic views.” Even further to the right is the neo-fascist Right Sector, which dominates the Maidan, or Independence Square, the heart of the rebellion, which has refused to disband and exerts significant influence over the new regime’s decisions.

Yanukovych’s decision to postpone the EU’s Association Agreement was not irrational. It would have forced Ukraine to decide between Russia and the EU, flatly rejecting Putin’s offer of a tripartite arrangement that would allow Ukraine to sustain its ties with Russia. Quite apart from Putin’s December offer of financial rescue, Ukraine is heavily dependent on Russia economically, which supplies and subsidizes its energy (at the cost of an estimated $4 billion a quarter) and accounts for 60 percent of its trade. The EU and the United States, for all their bluster, are not about to replace that deep connection with Western aid and trade. Americans across the political spectrum will not be enthusiastic about sending billions to a country on the other side of the world while we are cutting back on vital investments at home. The EU, dominated by Germany, has inflicted brutal austerity on its own troubled members like Greece, Spain and Portugal. There’s no reason to think the EU, with or without the IMF, would not exact an equally harsh regime on Ukraine as the price for financial aid. Any responsible government in Kiev should examine very carefully the level of support offered by these Western institutions, as well as the conditions attached to it.

The "Putin torpedoed the EU agreement, Putin evil and bad" trope is pure propaganda.

[K. A. Pital]

They also want a referendum on the region's future status – although they have yet to agree on the question to be asked, and the new government in Kiev has said that any such vote would be illegal.

How exactly is this not the very same thing people rallied against whenever someone tried to separate from Russia? A referendum on the status of a region is suddenly "illegal" - hey, this reminds me of something. Back in the early 1990s the Ukrainian government told Crimea "just wait - each region will have a referendum on its status and maybe some will go to the RSFSR". By 1994 it turned out that the laws which were passed made any such referenda illegal and "unconstitutional". Perfect!

I think any region has the right to separate, be it Chechnya, Catalonia or any other. I may find islamic separatism particularly worrisome because a Sharia state should not exist (rights of women will be severely injured and barbarity will surely follow), but it does not mean I am against separatism in principle.

[Thanas]

How exactly is this not the very same thing people rallied against whenever someone tried to separate from Russia? A referendum on the status of a region is suddenly "illegal" - hey, this reminds me of something. Back in the early 1990s the Ukrainian government told Crimea "just wait - each region will have a referendum on its status and maybe some will go to the RSFSR". By 1994 it turned out that the laws which were passed made any such referenda illegal and "unconstitutional". Perfect!

I think any region has the right to separate, be it Chechnya, Catalonia or any other. I may find islamic separatism particularly worrisome because a Sharia state should not exist (rights of women will be severely injured and barbarity will surely follow), but it does not mean I am against separatism in principle.

I agree with you that there should be a referendum as I said. But there can be no free and fair referendum with Putin having troops on the ground. Do you agree that any such referendum would not be legitimate, fair and free?

[Borgholio]

Russia threatens to confiscate Western assets if there are sanctions.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/05/world/eur ... ?hpt=hp_t1

Excerpt from article:

The Kremlin earlier threatened to hit back if the European Union does levy sanctions against Russia.

Russian lawmakers are drafting a law that will allow Russia to confiscate assets belonging to U.S. and European companies if it faces sanctions.

Andrei Klishas, a senior lawmaker in the upper house, said the bill "would offer the president and government opportunities to defend our sovereignty from threats," state news agency RIA Novosti reported.

[K. A. Pital]

I agree, of course. It seems that Putin also thinks that, so he's scaling down troop movements to boost legitimacy.

[Siege]

Russia threatens to confiscate Western assets if there are sanctions.

This is nothing but grandstanding, pure and simple. If Putin wants to nuke all Western investment in his country for the foreseeable future this would be the way to do it.

Oil and gas revenues account for more than 50% of Russian federal budget revenue. Europe doesn't want to be left in the dark and cold and Russia cannot afford to lose the $550 million worth of oil and gas it sells to Europe each day. So it would behoove all parties involved to cut down on the chest beating and try and find a quick and adequate resolution to the situation. The bullshit coming out of the Kremlin is as unhelpful as Kerry's hypocritical grandstanding, and I wish they'd all shut up for a moment so the grown-ups could talk.

[Mange]

This article in the Nation has it pretty accurate

Relevant excerpts:

We should take a deep breath—and a sober look—before committing treasure and prestige to a still unsettled new leadership in a country on Russia’s border—one that has had a fragile independent existence for barely two decades. Some history would also serve us well if we’re to understand fast-moving developments. With Russia moving troops into Crimea, we are now reaping the bitter fruit of a deeply flawed post–Cold War settlement that looks more like Versailles than Bretton Woods, a settlement inflamed by the short-sighted American decision to expand NATO eastward and pursue other policies aimed at isolating Russia and ignoring Russian interests.

Russia’s dispatch of military forces to Crimea is a clear violation of international law, as the Obama administration has stated. Putin justifies the invasion as necessary to protect Russian citizens and allies, but this is an unacceptable fig leaf. The administration is right to condemn it, as should the world community, although much of the world will grimace at the irony of Secretary Kerry denouncing an invasion of a sovereign country as unacceptable in the twenty-first century, when the United States is only now winding down its “war of choice” against Iraq, which is thousands of miles away from the United States. Crimea, of course, not only borders on Russia but houses its Black Sea fleet, which, by treaty agreement between Ukraine and Russia, is set to remain there until at least 2042. Crimea historically was part of Russia until 1954, when Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev transferred it to Ukraine in what many viewed as a gesture of goodwill.

Viktor Yanukovych was unpopular, corrupt and compromised, but he was the democratically elected president of Ukraine. He had been steering the country toward an “Association Agreement” with the European Union last fall when he reversed course after Russia offered $15 billion in financial aid to the all-but bankrupt country. That led to street demonstrations, spurred in part by the EU and the United States, which eventually sent Yanukovych packing.

Ukraine is deeply divided. As David Speedie, director of US Global Engagement at the Carnegie Council of Ethics in International Affairs, says, “In simple terms, half of the people in Ukraine look to Russia and the other half look to the West.” As Nicolai Petro demonstrates in his March 3 report at TheNation.com, the new leaders in Kiev include right-wing ultra-nationalists who, in one of their first acts, repealed the 2012 law allowing Russian and other minority languages to be used locally. (That measure was reversed, but not before arousing deep mistrust and fear in semi-autonomous Crimea and many other parts of eastern and southern Ukraine, which is populated largely by Russian speakers.) It is also worth noting that a key ally of the new government, holding central leadership positions in Parliament and law enforcement, is the Svoboda Party, which the European Parliament has condemned for its “racist, anti-Semitic and xenophobic views.” Even further to the right is the neo-fascist Right Sector, which dominates the Maidan, or Independence Square, the heart of the rebellion, which has refused to disband and exerts significant influence over the new regime’s decisions.

Yanukovych’s decision to postpone the EU’s Association Agreement was not irrational. It would have forced Ukraine to decide between Russia and the EU, flatly rejecting Putin’s offer of a tripartite arrangement that would allow Ukraine to sustain its ties with Russia. Quite apart from Putin’s December offer of financial rescue, Ukraine is heavily dependent on Russia economically, which supplies and subsidizes its energy (at the cost of an estimated $4 billion a quarter) and accounts for 60 percent of its trade. The EU and the United States, for all their bluster, are not about to replace that deep connection with Western aid and trade. Americans across the political spectrum will not be enthusiastic about sending billions to a country on the other side of the world while we are cutting back on vital investments at home. The EU, dominated by Germany, has inflicted brutal austerity on its own troubled members like Greece, Spain and Portugal. There’s no reason to think the EU, with or without the IMF, would not exact an equally harsh regime on Ukraine as the price for financial aid. Any responsible government in Kiev should examine very carefully the level of support offered by these Western institutions, as well as the conditions attached to it.

The "Putin torpedoed the EU agreement, Putin evil and bad" trope is pure propaganda.

Rubbish. The excerpt you posted contained a whole lot of "what ifs" and is lacking in substance. Russia halted the import of Ukrainian chocolate, Russia threatened to ban meat imports from the Ukraine in a move that allegedly experts in both countries viewed as coercion to press Ukraine not to sign the Association Agreement (Global Meat), Putin threatened with "protective measures" if the agreement was signed (EU Observer) and there's been other means of economic coercion as well. Putin also viewed the agreement as a threat to the security of Russia (Al Jazeera). Also, Yanukovych allegedly wanted better terms because of the threats coming from Russia.

[K. A. Pital]

Russia threatens to confiscate Western assets if there are sanctions.

This is nothing but grandstanding, pure and simple. If Putin wants to nuke all Western investment in his country for the foreseeable future this would be the way to do it.

Oil and gas revenues account for more than 50% of Russian federal budget revenue. Europe doesn't want to be left in the dark and cold and Russia cannot afford to lose the $550 million worth of oil and gas it sells to Europe each day. So it would behoove all parties involved to cut down on the chest beating and try and find a quick and adequate resolution to the situation. The bullshit coming out of the Kremlin is as unhelpful as Kerry's hypocritical grandstanding, and I wish they'd all shut up for a moment so the grown-ups could talk.

I fully agree with that. Russia is no longer self-sufficient. Such claims are vain talk. Actually from the Russian data I see that oil and gas taxes directly form 27% of the buget and some 10% more indirectly via other taxes, and around 30% are formed by wage taxes, which I think are also very much dependent on the health of oil and gas industry.

That's about as threatening as Kazakhstan saying it will seize Western assets. Self-annihilation.

Also, Europe won't be left in the dark. Only some more eco-minded countries (hmm, Germany?) because of their dislike of nuclear power.

[Broken]

I wonder if this crisis will reopen interest in liquid natural gas being exported from the US (which wastes large amounts of NG by burning it off when fraking) to Europe via ship. The idea (iirc) was considered unworkable due to cost of new ships/port terminals which couldn't compete with NG from Russia. Unlikely I would think, but the new ship construction and port work could help the economy I guess.

[IronStar]

Some news. I think you all are going to find them interesting
Telephone conversation between Estonian Foreign Minister Urmas Paet and Catherine Ashton about situation at Ukraine leaked.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZEgJ0oo3OA8#t=89
Validity of conversation confirmed http://www.vm.ee/?q=node/19353
I ll present some interesting moments
From 3:00 really interesting stuff- many people at maidan are worried because of new appointments.
And stuff at 4:00
Urmas Paet shares information about serious pressure on deputies(especially from the "party of regions") and that sometimes "unexpected guests visit deputies at nights"
Also he says that his contacts(he says about journalists) seen "deputy being beaten by armed people right in front of parliament"
From 8:12- discussion about snipers begins.
Paet: :what was quite disturbing,the same Olga(the main medic of Maidan) told that all evidence shows that people who were killed by snipers from both sides- policemen and people from the street, that they were the same snipers, killing people from both sides" and that new coalition is nor very eager to investigate and that there is stronger and srtonger understanding that it was not Yanukovich behind snipers, but somebody from the new coalition" - that is in conformity with existing information and logic(some of i ve presented at page 5). The known before facts that not only protesters were killed by snipers are now absolutely confirmed and cannot be dismissed as "Kremlin propaganda"
I ve even had somewhere in my bookmarks assumption from Avakov that snipers "possibly" didnt belong to Yanukovich. Maybe later try to find them.

[Darth Tanner]

I wonder if this crisis will reopen interest in liquid natural gas being exported from the US (which wastes large amounts of NG by burning it off when fraking) to Europe via ship.

You already are... we are already building the ports and infrastructure to take whatever can be shipped over although obviously that will take time. The fact you are burning the stuff as waste is rediculous.

Russia provides 30% of EU oil and gas - cutting that is not going to plunge Europe into darkness, its been a very mild winter so stocks are good and prices are actually quite low. It would mean a blow to a lot of already fragile economies though but not as much as Russia pretty much losing its entire export value.

[IronStar]

I have bad opinion about all this- the new government can fail - and this will happen cause as you know that government is bankrupt, Turchinov and Yacenuk declared about a week ago that it wont be better anytime soon, that "we need to implement unpopular measures", it already breached one of main maidan s demands by appointing oligarchs. And it wont be better with EU and IMF terms. According to current info maidan protesters are not going to disperse any time soon. It is likely that in a year or half there can be new maidan, and given that far right already have huge support, the next time they can try to do it Veimar style, playing on people disappointment frustration and economic conditions.
That just thinking- actually, it is yet to be seen how current situation rules out....

[fgalkin]

But when you break it down by country, it becomes more interesting:

Estonia 100%
Finland 100%
Latvia 100%
Lithuania 100%
Slovakia 98%
Bulgaria 92%
Czech Republic 77.6%
Greece 76%
Hungary 60%
Slovenia 52%
Austria 49%
Poland 48.15%
Germany 36%
Italy 27%
Romania 27%
France 14%
Belgium 5%

As always, the small countries will suffer, while the powers to be in Brussels and Frankfurt shrug and carry on as if nothing happened.

Have a very nice day.
-fgalkin

[Vympel]

Rubbish. The excerpt you posted contained a whole lot of "what ifs" and is lacking in substance. Russia halted the import of Ukrainian chocolate, Russia threatened to ban meat imports from the Ukraine in a move that allegedly experts in both countries viewed as coercion to press Ukraine not to sign the Association Agreement (Global Meat), Putin threatened with "protective measures" if the agreement was signed (EU Observer) and there's been other means of economic coercion as well. Putin also viewed the agreement as a threat to the security of Russia (Al Jazeera). Also, Yanukovych allegedly wanted better terms because of the threats coming from Russia.

Its not rubbish at all. Putin offered a tripartite agreement, did he not? Who bears the blame for rejecting that? Putin? And they're not "what ifs", they're statements of the blindingly obvious - indeed, Ukraine's new leader has already admitted he's going to be the most unpopular leader for passing austerity measures:

“I will be probably the most unpopular prime minister in the whole history,” Yatsenyuk told Parliament before being approved yesterday, heralding decisions on cuts in subsidies and welfare payments and later calling his job a “political kamikaze” mission. “But we will do everything possible to avoid default.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-2 ... h-aid.html

[Borgholio]

We have imposed Visa restrictions on Russians and Crimeans.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/worl ... d/6112921/

SEVASTOPOL, Ukraine -- The White House is imposing visa restrictions on Russians and Crimeans after Crimea's pro-Russia administration announced a March 16 referendum on whether Crimea should become part of Russia.

The White House said the restrictions will affect anyone who is "threatening the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine."

President Obama has signed an executive order authorizing sanctions against "individuals and entities responsible for activities undermining democratic processes or institutions in Ukraine."

The new action on visas comes in addition to a U.S. policy denying visas to those involved in human rights abuses related to political oppression in Ukraine.

Many in Ukraine fear the move by Crimea retext toward secession and the eventual annexation by the Russian Federation.

"This is our response to the disorder and lawlessness in Kiev," Sergei Shuvainikov, a member of the local Crimean legislature, told the Associated Press. "We will decide our future ourselves."

The parliament in Crimea enjoys a degree of autonomy under current Ukrainian law. Referendum voters will choose between joining Russia or remaining part of Ukraine, but with enhanced local powers.

There was no immediate response from the Ukrainian central government to the vote. On Wednesday, Ukraine's prime minister told the Associated Press that Crimea would remain part of Ukraine.

Sevastopol's newly installed mayor, Alexei Chaly, earlier said that the port city will boycott Ukraine's national elections slated for May 25, but the announced referendum may make that a moot point.

"Sevastopol refused to take part in the elections that were imposed by the illegitimate authorities," Chaly said in remarks quoted by Interfax news agency.

Sevastopol is home to both Russia and Ukraine's Black Sea fleet which are locked in a standoff with Russian vessels blockading two Ukrainian warships in Sevastopol Bay.

Ukraine's acting naval commander Serhiy Hayduk said his forces are trying to prevent bloodshed between the two navies. "We are trying at all costs to prevent bloodshed and civilian casualties," he said in remarks quoted by Interfax.

Russian businessman Alexei Chaly took control of the Sevastopol's administration Feb. 23 following the resignation of the Kiev-appointed mayor after a rally of pro-Russia supporters forced a change of administration.

[Block]

Is there any evidence at all that the US actually helped spark the original protests? I've seen this claim several times and it seems rather unlikely.

[Borgholio]

Is there any evidence at all that the US actually helped spark the original protests? I've seen this claim several times and it seems rather unlikely.

None whatsoever that I've seen. The Russians are just blaming the US as an excuse to justify what they're doing.