WTF Are the North Koreans Smoking Now?

[Zaune]

I don't think two would be such a cluster fuck for America politically, economically maybe.

False dichotomy. Economics and politics are so closely interlinked that it's not even clear which is a continuation by other means of which. (Did that make sense?)

And either way, taking on North Korea would break the US as a military force. This is the most deeply indoctrinated society in the world; not only did the ruling dynasty stay in power when the food situation got so bad that people were seriously resorting to cannibalism, they didn't even have to put down any riots we've found out about. It's like an entire country has Stockholm Syndrome! Can you even imagine trying to introduce democracy -or at least something that can pass for it if you don't look too hard- to that madhouse?

[madd0ct0r]

taking on North Korea wouldn't break America.

rebuilding North Korea might.

[Ralin]

And either way, taking on North Korea would break the US as a military force. This is the most deeply indoctrinated society in the world; not only did the ruling dynasty stay in power when the food situation got so bad that people were seriously resorting to cannibalism, they didn't even have to put down any riots we've found out about. It's like an entire country has Stockholm Syndrome! Can you even imagine trying to introduce democracy -or at least something that can pass for it if you don't look too hard- to that madhouse?

But on the other hand, bear in mind that was back during the 90s. From what I understand there's a lot more awareness of the outside world in North Korean society, along with black market trade and such. So even if they were all super-indoctrinated and convinced Kim Jong-il was God then that may not be true now.

I mean, I agree with the general point. That's why I said their government is really good at staying in power and surviving. But don't go too far with that idea.

[Simon_Jester]

I think that while it wouldn't be impossible, it would be much too hard for the kind of resources the US would actually be prepared to commit to long term reconstruction of North Korea. Our government is seldom willing to do things that are hard these days.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

S. Korea dispatches Aegis warships to monitor N. Korea missile launch.

SEOUL, April 5 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's Navy has sent two Aegis destroyers equipped with advanced radar systems to both of its coasts as North Korea is moving closer to a missile launch, military officials said Friday.

The 7,600-ton Aegis destroyers with SPY-1 radar, which can track hundreds of targets as far as 1,000 kilometers away, have been on standby on the east and west coasts of the Korean Peninsula to track missile launches by Pyongyang, according to a senior Navy official said.

"If the North fires off a missile, we will trace its trajectory," the official said asking for anonymity citing confidential information.









The South Korean military is also operating the ground-based missile defense radar system Green Pine, and the early warning aircraft Peace Eye under stepped up military readiness status to prepare for a potential rocket launch, according to the officials.

The latest move comes as the communist country has recently moved a medium-range missile to its east coast, as the U.S. strengthened its Pacific missile defenses and radar surveillance amid intensifying threats from Pyongyang.

While Seoul's defense ministry didn't officially confirm the type of the missile, Defense Minister Kim Kwan-jin Thursday said the missile is believed to have a "considerable distance," which points to a medium-range missile.

According to intelligence analysis, the component seen in the satellite imagery seems like a Musudan missile, which can fly about 3,000-4,000 km and is capable of hitting the U.S. base in Guam in the Pacific Ocean.

The North has not yet conducted a test firing of the Musudan missile, which was first revealed to the international community in October 2010 during a military parade in Pyongyang.

"We are closely monitoring North Korea's missile preparations, but it is not yet clear when and where it will fire off a missile," defense ministry spokesman Kim Min-seok said in a briefing. "We will step up our military posture if the North's missile affects us."
In response to media reports that the North may plan to launch a missile in the coming days or weeks, Kim said Pyongyang could pick a launching day it deems "meaningful," without elaboration.

Outside watchers see a high chance that Pyongyang may launch the missile in mid-April to celebrate the April 15 birthday of Kim Il-sung, the communist nation's late founder and the young leader Kim Jong-un's grandfather, in a move to bolster the regime's grip on power.

The North's apparent missile relocation has prompted the Pentagon to move its advanced missile defense system to its base on Guam along with radar systems.

Meanwhile, the defense ministry has dispatched a team of inspectors to the front-line island of Yeonpyeong to look into a border crossing by a North Korean defector across the tensely guarded western sea border.

The 28-year-old defector, who was living in the South, slipped through radar monitoring on Wednesday night to sail across the maritime border in the Yellow Sea, sparking security concerns at a time of military tensions with the North.

"Investigations are currently underway," Kim said. "After the inspection, we'll figure out what kind of additional measures are needed" to strengthen border security.

Source

[Stark]

Missile test recorded by other nations? It's almost as if this external verification of missile capability is the point! :v. Someone should work out how many SM3 are around the peninsula and Sea of Japan for a laugh.

[The Xeelee]

Also remember that the regime in the North stayed in power because to their people they are mighty. They may have their minds changed with the American war machine marching through Pyongyang.

[Alkaloid]

So american soldiers would be greeted as liberators then, they just have to crush the north korean army first?

[Stark]

Also remember that the regime in the North stayed in power because to their people they are mighty. They may have their minds changed with the American war machine marching through Pyongyang.

Is this a real post?

[gigabytelord]

So american soldiers would be greeted as liberators then, they just have to crush the north korean army first?

That's a complicated subject, believe it or not what happens after the fighting would be more important than what happens during the fighting. See Iraq.

If we fuck up in NK as completely as we did in Iraq... man I know this is cliche, but Why can't we just all get the fuck along!

[The Xeelee]

Why wouldn't it be? People often believe the government to beatable, once they have been beaten.

[Stark]

Putting aside your appallingly simplistic premise, are you aware that even in cases where invaders have been greeted as liberators, the damage done to the country and the political chaos still produce negative results for the people involved? Are you aware, indeed, that after a 'bad leader' has been deposed, and the result is chaos, privation and death that the 'bad leader' can become the object of nostalgia?

[ChaserGrey]

Missile test recorded by other nations? It's almost as if this external verification of missile capability is the point! :v. Someone should work out how many SM3 are around the peninsula and Sea of Japan for a laugh.

I noticed that the Aegis destroyer sent to the area is one of the ships with ABM capability. I doubt there are plans to shoot the test down unless someone in Washington has been sniffing some serious glue, but I'm sure they wanted to have the option just in case. ("Uh, Sir, isn't that the azimuth for Guam?" "HOLY...")

[The Xeelee]

I didn't say otherwise. What I said was, people aren't going to believe the invincible or the whole Deity level propaganda that is going on there, if they are defeated in a war.

[Stark]

Yeah, but there's no money in firing a test missile at anything dangerous. It's just a way for super radar to track it so people believe it's capabilities. It'll be interesting to see if people verify their claims regarding range etc.

[ChaserGrey]

Agreed, and I don't think even the North would actually fire it on an azimuth towards anyplace except the Pacific Ocean. There's provocative, and then there's just fucking stupid. Still, doesn't hurt to send an ABM ship- you're going to send somebody to observe anyway, so why not make sure that one in 10^4 chance is covered?

And yeah, the results are going to be highly interesting, especially since there are a lot of Aegis ships in the area and possibly the SBX radar. I'm not sure anybody's taken this good a look at a North Korean missile test before- I'll be interested if anything makes it out about wobble, whether stages separate cleanly, etc.

[Alkaloid]

I was acually being a little sarcastic there chaser, because xeelee sounded exactly like the decence secretary pre iraq. Somehow though, i dont think north koreans will realise US soldiers are not the terrible monsters they were always told whey they blow up bits of pyongyang and then roll into it over the corpses of the north korean army.
Just a hunch.



Edit: gigabytelord, not chaser.

[Broomstick]

I don't think two would be such a cluster fuck for America politically, economically maybe.
Remember China is the only Country North Korea has semi-normal relations with, and even they wouldn't make a fuss as long as the Americans make an agreement, consisting of "don't put troops on our border".

On what do you base the notion that China wouldn't protest an American take-over of North Korea? From what I've seen in the English-translations of Chinese press that idea has certainly be raised but the kicker is that China really doesn't want a US presence of any sort right on their border. They might accept it as the lessor of two evils. Working out an agreement both parties would be comfortable with would be tricky at best.

See, by "humanitarian clusterfuck" I was focusing on the large number of people who would die as a direct result.

But leaving that aside, I think you're still missing the full picture here. Let’s suppose America Fuck Yeah curb stomps North Korea. In addition to the massive economic cost to us of doing so, pretty much everyone agrees that refugees are going to go streaming in every direction unless there’s a wall and soldiers actively gunning down everyone who approaches it in their way. Meaning that China and South Korea, also known as our largest trading partner and a fairly important ally, respectively, will be swamped with said refugees.

Most likely, refugees will flood into China. The minefield on the DMZ isn't going to magically go away. Fording the rivers that make up the northern border is much less hazardous. Although China has already moved troops and hardware to that border. I would hope that “gunning down everyone” doesn't become the reality, but it's not inconceivable.

In all likelihood they’ll end up having to pony up a large chunk of the reconstruction costs, and in South Korea’s case more than likely eventually undergo some sort of political unification with the former DPRK. Ever hear what it did to the West German economy when they reunited with East Germany? This would be like that, only much worse.

I've seen estimates of 2-3 times the impact of German reunification.

I imagine this would all add up to a great deal of ill will towards the United States.

It's not like the Koreans – even the South Koreans – have ever had a lot of warm and fuzzy feelings towards us. The US has been blamed on both sides of the border for splitting the nation. The South Koreans tolerate the US and find its presence useful for defense, they don't necessarily like the US.

Plus I guess it would really suck for the North Koreans.

It's going to suck to one degree or another for them, just as it has for years. The question is how much it's going to suck.

And either way, taking on North Korea would break the US as a military force.

Unlikely. The North Koreans have WWII military tech (more or less). The US is much more technologically advanced and, occupying a continent, has access to much more people and resources provided there is a will to see something through. The US would also not be fighting on home soil, the North Koreans will. While that will probably give the North Koreans greater motivation, it will leave the US's manufacturing and agriculture untouched.

This is the most deeply indoctrinated society in the world; not only did the ruling dynasty stay in power when the food situation got so bad that people were seriously resorting to cannibalism, they didn't even have to put down any riots we've found out about.

Keep in mind, too, they've been indoctrinated specifically against the US, which they have been taught is the Enemy and the source of all ills and suffering. In addition, the propaganda has been predicting a US invasion for 60 years. The US will not be seen as liberators, rather, more like armageddon.

It's like an entire country has Stockholm Syndrome!

That is probably a good analogy.

But on the other hand, bear in mind that was back during the 90s. From what I understand there's a lot more awareness of the outside world in North Korean society, along with black market trade and such.

Well, if you mean by “much better informed” they watch bootleg copies of South Korean soap operas, yeah, but keep in mind getting caught watching anything like that can get you 10 years of hard labor. The black market trade started primarily in food stuffs and is tolerated when it keeps people from starving or freezing, but the government cracks down unpredictably whenever it feels like it.

North Korea is arguably still the most ignorant nation regarding what's outside its borders, and arguably the nation currently furthest from capitalism or a free market.

So even if they were all super-indoctrinated and convinced Kim Jong-il was God then that may not be true now.

I view that as extremely naïve and optimistic, although I wouldn't be crushed to be proven wrong. From what I've read regarding North Korean defectors up through 2011 the Kim Dynasty is still regarded with the same old awe and reverence.

Also remember that the regime in the North stayed in power because to their people they are mighty. They may have their minds changed with the American war machine marching through Pyongyang.

Or they'll think the legions of hell have invaded. The winner is not always regarded with love.

[Zaune]

Keep in mind, too, they've been indoctrinated specifically against the US, which they have been taught is the Enemy and the source of all ills and suffering. In addition, the propaganda has been predicting a US invasion for 60 years. The US will not be seen as liberators, rather, more like armageddon.

That's what I meant when I said that taking them on would break the US Army. The occupation would be such a fucking meatgrinder that it'd make Vietnam look good by comparison, much less Iraq! Civilian casualties... Well, would there even be any North Korean civilians except the kids, the elderly and the disabled in that scenario? Damn near everyone able-bodied goes through national service at some point and I dare say they've got plenty of light weapons salted away to be used if and when the regulars get forced back.

[Stark]

On what do you base the notion that China wouldn't protest an American take-over of North Korea? From what I've seen in the English-translations of Chinese press that idea has certainly be raised but the kicker is that China really doesn't want a US presence of any sort right on their border. They might accept it as the lessor of two evils. Working out an agreement both parties would be comfortable with would be tricky at best.

Remember that time when the Korean War was over and the United Nations had control of the peninsula, and this American decided it'd be sweet to piss off the Chinese? Good times.

It's like an entire country has Stockholm Syndrome!

That is probably a good analogy.

On what do you base this 'analogy'?

[bilateralrope]

Keep in mind, too, they've been indoctrinated specifically against the US, which they have been taught is the Enemy and the source of all ills and suffering. In addition, the propaganda has been predicting a US invasion for 60 years. The US will not be seen as liberators, rather, more like armageddon.

That's what I meant when I said that taking them on would break the US Army. The occupation would be such a fucking meatgrinder that it'd make Vietnam look good by comparison, much less Iraq! Civilian casualties... Well, would there even be any North Korean civilians except the kids, the elderly and the disabled in that scenario? Damn near everyone able-bodied goes through national service at some point and I dare say they've got plenty of light weapons salted away to be used if and when the regulars get forced back.

How much of an occupation would there be ?

If a war starts, it's very likely to go nuclear.

[gigabytelord]

Remember that time when the Korean War was over and the United Nations had control of the peninsula, and this American decided it'd be sweet to piss off the Chinese? Good times.

History proves that even military geniuses can be complete morons?

Another way to put it would be "Good generals do often make good politicians".

Then again there are those that argue Macarthur wasn't a particularly good general either.

[Ralin]

It's not like the Koreans – even the South Koreans – have ever had a lot of warm and fuzzy feelings towards us. The US has been blamed on both sides of the border for splitting the nation. The South Koreans tolerate the US and find its presence useful for defense, they don't necessarily like the US.

On a side note, I'm not really clear on why the South Koreans need the US to protect them. They've had like half a century to get ready, they have a big army with modern weapons and an economy light years ahead of the North's. One would think they could take care of themselves at this point.

[Mr Bean]

Look militarily the DMZ is and remains the most heavily defended stretches of our planet. No where else in the world do you see the amount of pre-sited artillery, careful drills and decades of time to prepare. Both sides have detailed plans of what to do for the first three days of the conflict and excellent knowledge of everything within fifty miles of the border.

After that of course everything is in the air, but never has there been ground so meticulously planned for and covered with most every contingency covered. A friend of mine who got DMZ duty stated years ago that the artillery company's already knew where they would be moving to in North Korea to hit the three most likely rally points to oppose a drive to the capital. And the secondary and tertiary positions they could use instead if the first one was mined or in enemy hands.

So much of the raw strength of both countries military is set around defending their borders it leaves the interior fairly open but again... the area around the DMZ is not the wide open fields of Poland ripe for lighting war. Down near the coasts one could advance fairly quickly but that's only the option for South Korea as anything within ten miles of a coast is prime Navy targets.

Military America and South Korea can take and defeat North Korea in any dreamed of conventional fight. Not without losses, not without thousands of dead civilians and not without turning portions of the country to moon-scapes but it can be done. What the US can not handle is yet a third occupation. Luckily we'd have South Korea for that. Hopefully we'd have China as well for that.

[Knife]

It's not like the Koreans – even the South Koreans – have ever had a lot of warm and fuzzy feelings towards us. The US has been blamed on both sides of the border for splitting the nation. The South Koreans tolerate the US and find its presence useful for defense, they don't necessarily like the US.

On a side note, I'm not really clear on why the South Koreans need the US to protect them. They've had like half a century to get ready, they have a big army with modern weapons and an economy light years ahead of the North's. One would think they could take care of themselves at this point.

Agreed. I'm not really seeing how it's our problem at all. If the Norks don't want us there, and the ROK doesn't want us there, lets go. I'm ok with that.