Elfdart wrote:Thanas wrote:So the toll now stands at:
Israel:
68 dead (4 civilians)
?? injured
Palestine:
2100 dead (? civilians)
10.500 injuredHow is that in any way a proportional response?
As if Palestinian lives had value.
Seriously though. Imagine if the Turkish government had decided to exact similar revenge against Israel for the killing of nine passengers on the Mavi Marmara.
If the Turks had reason to believe the Israelis were going to
keep trying to kill more Turks on a regular basis, and were going to physically intrude on Turkish soil to do so, and had already been forced to spend billions building up defenses against said intrusions...
HELL YES I would say the Turks would be justified in launching a counterattack with the stated effects. Even if the Israelis did respond by withdrawing all their forces into civilian areas, mixing with the civilians, and as a result getting lots of Israeli civilians killed and writing them off as martyrs to the cause.
Which is one of the complaints here that you don't seem to grasp, that
Hamas itself is showing no more respect for the lives of its own people than the Israelis are. And that it is ultimately this willingness to sacrifice their own people's well-being that even makes it possible for them to keep up their side of the cycle of violence.
Reinforce Iron Dome. Then start targeting hamas leadership hard-liners as usual. Then negotiate in good faith for a return to 1967 borders and a right to return. Give them something to live for instead of nothing to die for.
Iron Dome is a fraud. Strengthening a fraud is futility cubed.
You are either ignorant or lying, or the word "fraud" just does not mean the same things in your bizarre version of a language that it does in English.
That's kinda the idea. Either Palestinians can lay down like sheep as their land is stolen and they're herded into smaller and smaller ghettos (which will be considered consent), die out like the Tainos, or if and when the ghettos' gates are opened they can flee to Egypt, Jordan or elsewhere (which will be considered voluntary emigration). Either way, Greater Israel will carry on with its Lebensraum policy.
Which Israelis have stolen which land in the Gaza Strip over the past eight years? Be specific.
cosmicalstorm wrote:Yeah the Israelis work in slow-motion. Slowly driving the Palestinians away. I'm happy that is not something happening to my hometown! I wonder how much Israel would like to expand beyond it's current border? Are they content with what they have?
This accurately describes the situation in the West Bank. In Gaza
it's the opposite of true; Israel withdrew its settlements, ceded authority over the territory to the locals, and now much of southern Israel is living in a slow-motion version of the London Blitz as a result.
Dr. Trainwreck wrote:Simon_Jester wrote:The other half of it is, it is... at best wishful thinking and at worst willful ignorance of human nature to expect a large group of people to agree to give up something for nothing. It's usually possible to convince people to sacrifice something for something, or nothing for nothing, but not something for nothing.
Whoa there, "something for nothing"? They totally gain something: a few guaranteed years of peace and deescalation, AKA the possibility that this peace will last...
They gain a
possibility of getting peace. They also gain a possibility that after a year or two of quiet and rearmament, Hamas will start launching rockets again, this time with more resources and more opportunities to acquire bigger, nastier rockets.
So if you look inside an Israeli's head while they hear your offer, what they're really hearing goes something like:
1) I DEMAND that you stop shooting today, it's the only honorable course of action because YOU have control over this situation!
2) As a result of you not shooting, AND ceding land to Hamas, you gain the following:
3) An 80% chance of Hamas coming after you with more and bigger weapons in a few years as soon as the international community stops paying attention, OR
4) A 20% chance of peace breaking out because Hamas has suddenly seen the light and decided to let Israelis live in peace,
without being deposed by even more radical Palestinian organizations as Hamas themselves deposed Fatah.
I just made up the numbers, but I suspect that the average Israeli would consider them very optimistic about the chance for a lasting peace.
Now, basically, my point here is that you seem to be totally overlooking the role of (3) in making your proposal unappetizing to Israel. It's like:
"Roll the dice. If you win, you get peace. If you lose, you end up in a bigger nastier war than before. And the international community will STILL call you the bad guys if you go on the offensive at any point during this war."
THAT is why Israel sees this as a "something for nothing" situation. They have no reliable assurance that they
will get peace by making concessions and stopping their incursions into Gaza. They have only a possibility of getting peace... and a large corresponding risk of getting an even bigger war than the one they have now, one which will cost them more than this one does.
They're giving up a thing with 100% probability, but they have only a limited probability of getting the reward for doing so. Which is, at best, a form of gambling, with the security of their population as the stakes.
You may want them to make that gamble. But an Israeli might well argue that the reason you want them to gamble is not a very good reason. From your arguments, they may well conclude that you ignore (3)
on purpose. That you value an end to the war more than you value Israel's safety.
Israelis would be out of their minds to think that way, even if they are the unambiguous villains of the story. Therefore, they're not going to agree to a proposal like yours. Not if it doesn't come with some kind of meaningful assurance that the Gazans won't just resume the attack in a few years' time in hopes of biting off another slice of territory.
But it's important to watch the words we use, so we don't frame the debate in a way that impairs our objectivity. Such as thinking of competent statesmen and guerilla warfare experts as though they were a bunch of children, incapable and ignorant of strategic thinking, and not responsible for their own actions.
You are the one who thought of this interpretation. Are you trying to force intent on van Creveld? Are you perhaps interpreting this metaphor incorrectly? This isn't fiction, it is military history; we can't just go all death of the author over it. Trust me, I'm literally studying literary theory right now.
I think that there's a
large vein of military-historical thought which tends to view the Palestinians as somehow not as responsible, or not as to-blame, for their actions as the Israelis are.
In my opinion, it's what happens when orientalism meets anticolonialism. Instead of viewing the foreigner as too ignorant to govern himself, you view him as being too ignorant to
fight intelligently, to think and plan ahead the way a responsible person who cares about their own people would.
Thus, Israelis are blameworthy for launching offensive military operations that serve only to perpetuate the cycle of violence, but when Palestinians fire rockets they are not blameworthy, even though it clearly has the same effect on the cycle.
There is another vein of such thought that holds the Israelis totally blameless for everything they do and the Palestinians as EVILVILLAINMOOSLEMS. This leads to even greater stupidities. However, this vein tends to be populated by stupider people.
Israel is dealing with areas full of hostile displaced populations that have a huge irredentist thing going in which a lot of them want to claim all the land Israel now occupies. And the displaced people have a nearly 100% disapproval of Israel and would probably be perfectly happy if all the Israelis jumped off a cliff*.
At least we agree that Palestinian hatred is justified and not them being irrational beasts or whatever, because I've seen shit claimed, man. I've
seen shit.
Well, the thing is, their anger is rational, but their responses have become irrational. They're human, they're understandable, but they represent a nation given over to hate.
I've heard it quoted from some Israeli political figure that "the war will end when they decide they love their children more than they hate us," and while that's a very uncharitable statement, I think there's an essential truth to it- if the Israelis need to let go of their determination to ensure security by keeping a boot on Palestinian necks, so too do the Palestinians need to figure out a way to govern themselves that is
not purely, utterly given over to the expression of hatred against Israel.
Because as we have seen demonstrated very effectively in Gaza over the past seven and a half years, hateocracy simply doesn't work when your nation is surrounded by a far more powerful enemy who is the focus of your hatred.
And the "all the land" is bullshit as far as Hamas is concerned. Sorry, I gave links before, to you even. Of course, Hamas might fall from power in favor of even more extreme people like Fatah did, and I can't say anything about this apart from the assumption that this would happen because Hamas can't stop Israel from bombing Gaza.
Hamas' present claims do not include all of Israel. My point is that the Palestinians collectively, not without reason,
feel they have such a claim on some gut level. So there is no point beyond which the Israelis can withdraw and be
sure that the war is over; only points beyond which they theoretically could withdraw (by displacing large chunks of their population) and at least
hope that the war is over.
And even after they did withdraw they would have to worry not only about a Palestinian radical group taking over to push them farther, but also about such a group simply
not being restrained. If Hamas accepted an Israeli retreat to the 1967 borders, for instance, and assuming Israel simply decided not to worry about how vulnerable that makes parts of their nation to military attack... well, if the new group decides it wants to push the Israelis all the way into the sea, and Hamas is still in charge,
will Hamas take steps to stop them?
If not, then Israel has gained very little in exchange for its territorial concession, despite having had to force a quite large chunk of its population to move in the process.
Meanwhile, in Northern Ireland during the Troubles, the UK faced a divided population in Northern Ireland, where part of the population was Unionist and part was Irish-nationalist, and where they could basically adopt a position of neutrality while trying to combat specific acts of terrorism on the part of the Irish nationalists. They didn't have to worry about, for example, the IRA forming a semi-independent state in County Antrim and firing masses of random mortars and rockets into Belfast, let alone London.
So it's very questionable whether it's even realistic to think of the Troubles as an analogy for the situation in Palestine. The UK had a lot of options that Israel doesn't.
And Gaza isn't divided? Is it a monolithic bloc? The UK held back and eventually solved this. Extreme people on both sides might bitch and moan (they often do about compromise), but Britain
solved this.
Gaza isn't divided about
whether or not they hate the Israelis; if it ever was it certainly isn't now.
See, Britain solved a different problem, and while that might speak well of the solvability of such problems in general, it doesn't mean you can simply copy their solution into a totally different context. So while "Britain solved this," is true, the 'this' they solved isn't the same 'this' as Israel's 'this.'
If the British had to deal with an IRA-controlled state in County Down firing mortars into Belfast on a regular basis and periodically launching a barrage of longer range rockets across the Irish Sea at major British port cities,
that would at least begin to approximate the Troubles that Israel is dealing with.
Meanwhile, there is Rupert Smith. He's a British officer who rose through the ranks in the Troubles and therefore knows the situation firsthand.
Here is what he's saying for the IvP conflict. I've also found a part of his book,
The Utility of Force, about this issue, but it's sailing the Internet sea and I'll need time to track it down.
The catch is that while Smith may well think he's got good advice, it's not obvious to me that he's right in and of itself. He may be the equivalent of the British officers who said to the US in Vietnam "just do XYZ," and they went and
did XYZ. And it was a disastrous failure that made everything worse because Vietnamese culture and Malayan culture are different, and the Viet Cong and the Malay guerillas were different and had different wellsprings of strength too, and so on.
In Hamas's case, the most basic form of their cause (Palestinian independence) is symapthetic and falls under 'freedom fighter' in many minds... but at the same time, it's pretty obvious that they're not in any real sense "resisting" an army that occupies their people.
Lolwut? I agree with the rest, but please tell me how Hamas isn't a resistance army against Israel.
The army is not, in point of fact, occupying the territory that they're launching their operations in.
The Maquis in France was fighting Germans who
occupied France. They did not have this little patch of ground surrounded by Germans (civilian and military alike) where they could govern their own strip full of Frenchmen as they pleased, and then launch shellings and commando raids across the border into German territory.
That is not resistance, that is counterattack.
Counterattack can certainly be justified- but that doesn't mean it is
always the right thing to do. It doesn't get an automatic blank check to do absolutely whatever
you personally think is required. It is different from fighting to resist people who are on your land, trying to rule over your people.
It is my opinion that BOTH sides are responsible and NEITHER side can realistically impose peace unilaterally. As a consequence it may be impossible to impose peace at all... or not. I'm not sure.
Come on, this is a golden mean fallacy and you know it. Besides, I strictly talked about who has the
capacity, not the will.
No, the Golden Mean fallacy is if I say "one side says they're right, and the other side says they're right, so the truth must lie in the middle."
What I'm saying is, more or less, "it takes two to tango." Or rather, "it takes one to start a war, but two to make a peace."
It is not the Golden Mean fallacy to say that a war is going to go on as long as
either side wants war rather than peace, and that it cannot be brought about by one side saying "you know what, I have decided the war will end" unless the other side says "okay, let's have it end now."
Maybe- but it's very hard to say. Essentially, you're asking Israel to roll the dice on the good faith and peaceable intentions of people who are actively trying to kill them.
Which is a LOT to ask of anyone, without some gesture of good faith by the other side... even if said other side is in no position to make gestures.
If the other side is incapable of gestures, isn't it wholly unreasonable to ask for one?
Debateable.
In this case, the other side's politics are so dominated by hate that they "can't" make concessions like "we will stop trying to kill you." But that's not a "can't" in the sense of "physically impossible." That's a "can't" in the sense of "politically impossible."
It is debateable whether Party A should have to tolerate being killed due to how
awkward and difficult it would be for Party B to renounce killing. Even if Party B "cannot" renounce it for political reasons.
What, softening one's rhetorical stance while continuing the rocket bombardment? I'm skeptical.
This isn't only rhetoric. Hamas had been enforcing the ceasefire, not launching rockets, and policing Gaza to prevent launches from non-Hamas people. Israel, meanwhile, got attacked by non-Hamas rockets, but fired on Hamas anyway as if they were responsible. Pull a "citation needed" on me here if you wish, I'll try to scrounge up my source later.
I'll take your word for it.
If the Israelis had reason to be convinced that Hamas was enforcing the cease-fire, then that was a wrongful action on their part.
If the Israelis were highly skeptical (say, if they had reason to think that Hamas actually
was quietly turning a blind eye to those launches), then what we have on our hands is tragedy, in the literary sense of the word.
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is very rich ground for producing tragedy.