Brexit and General UK politics thread

[jwl]

Not really. Labour picked up UKIP votes too. What happened was that the UKIP vote collapsed and the UKIP voters went back to their previous parties.

[Dartzap]

Reports coming in that the DUP deal is on schedule to crash and burn tomorrow. Dealing with fanatics was a bit much for Mrs Foster, I guess.

[Crazedwraith]

How long do they get to push back or lose votes like the Queen's speech before the government goes? Or does May voluntarily have to go to the Queen to dissolve parliment?

[Dartzap]

If she can't get the speech past, she can either try and run a minority government, admit she can't and allow Corbyn to go see Liz, or, if feeling brave from Dutch courage, ask for another election.

Can't see a minority government from either party lasting, to be honest.

[Eternal_Freedom]

If the Tories, being only 8 seats short of a majority can't run a minority government, I fail to see how Corbyn can manage it when he's what, 60 odd seats short of a majority? I cannot see that working, no matter how much I or anyone else likes the guy.

Best case is May crashes and we get a new election. The outcome of that, I don't have a god-damned clue.

[Dominus Atheos]

There is no concept of the prime minister or failing to pass legislation "dissolving parliament" anymore. Non-scheduled elections in the UK can only be held on a 2/3rds vote of the HOC, or a lost no-confidence vote. Besides those specific circumstances, May's government will stand for 5 years.

[Dartzap]

If he enters into a rainbow coloured coalition of freedom progression with LD, SNP Pc. Green etc, I think he only has one short of what the Tories have. There's probably a fair few younger Tories who could be willing to vote in support as well.

Indie

Queen's Speech could be given without majority as Theresa May's DUP talks falter

NewsUKUK Politics
Queen's Speech could be given without majority as Theresa May's DUP talks falter

DUP demands a 'greater focus' to the negotiations on the Conservative side, adding 'The party can't be taken for granted'

Rob Merrick Deputy Political Editor @Rob_Merrick 3 mins ago

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Indy Politics
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Theresa May faces the embarrassment of her Queen's Speech going ahead without the backing of the Democratic Unionist Party – ten days after she claimed a deal was done.

The right-wing Northern Ireland party warned the Prime Minister it “can't be taken for granted”, as the long-running negotiations appeared to run into trouble.

DUP sources also took aim at the lack of “negotiating experience” on the Conservative side – a serious criticism, a day after the separate Brexit talks also got underway.

An agreement appeared unlikely before Wednesday’s Queen’s Speech, denying Ms May the guaranteed Commons majority she was seeking when she sought the DUP’s support.

If the party abstains on the crucial Queen’s Speech vote, the Prime Minister will rely on all her MPs voting in order for it to scrape through with a majority of just two.

But the DUP source said agreement before the State Opening of Parliament could not entirely be ruled out, if there was movement in the talks between the parties later today.

The talks are attempting to secure a “confidence and supply” arrangement, rather than a full-blown coalition, after the Tories lost their Commons majority.

It would mean the DUP backing the Government on its Budget and other key votes and – crucially – preventing it being brought down by motions of no confidence.

Ten days ago, Downing Street claimed an outline agreement had been reached, but was forced to backtrack after a DUP spokesman denied it.

Now, with the Queen’s Speech just hours away, the DUP has made known that it wants the Government to give “greater focus” to the negotiations, adding: “The party can't be taken for granted.

“The negotiations haven't proceeded in a way that DUP would have expected,” the source also told Sky News.

The delay is believed to have been caused by the DUP’s big financial demands, for both higher public spending in Northern Ireland and lucrative tax breaks.

On Monday, the Prime Minister was forced to bow to pressure to publish the full details of any agreement, amid rising concern about the potential cost.

John McDonnell, Labour’s shadow Chancellor, wrote to the Treasury over reports that the DUP is seeking an exemption from air passenger duty levied at airports in Northern Ireland.

If granted, that demand would cost at least £90m a year, Mr McDonnell said - enough to pay for “2,000 firefighters”.

Meanwhile, Sinn Fein and the SDLP, as well as the cross-community Alliance Party, warned that a deal would undermine attempts to restore the power-sharing executive at Stormont.

Asked about the continuing delay, a Number 10 spokesman would say only that talks were “ongoing”.

[Dartzap]

There is no concept of the prime minister or failing to pass legislation "dissolving parliament" anymore. Non-scheduled elections in the UK can only be held on a 2/3rds vote of the HOC, or a lost no-confidence vote. Besides those specific circumstances, May's government will stand for 5 years.

She can lose confidence votes such as the QS one tomorrow, and still be offed under the fixed term law.

[Iroscato]

It's just been clusterfuck after clusterfuck in this bloody country lately, honestly...

[Zaune]

She can lose confidence votes such as the QS one tomorrow, and still be offed under the fixed term law.

And failing that, if present trends continue then the good burghers of Kensington will obligingly prompt a few by-elections to replace the Tory MPs whose heads end up impaled on pikes, which Labour will win handily.

[madd0ct0r]

She can lose confidence votes such as the QS one tomorrow, and still be offed under the fixed term law.

And failing that, if present trends continue then the good burghers of Kensington will obligingly prompt a few by-elections to replace the Tory MPs whose heads end up impaled on pikes, which Labour will win handily.

good sir, i belive their ire is directed at their council, unless their MPs were unwise enough to wade into the sitatuation.

[Crazedwraith]

Grenfell's MP is already labour iirc.

And that sounds like you're advocating murder.

[jwl]

There is no concept of the prime minister or failing to pass legislation "dissolving parliament" anymore. Non-scheduled elections in the UK can only be held on a 2/3rds vote of the HOC, or a lost no-confidence vote. Besides those specific circumstances, May's government will stand for 5 years.

She can lose confidence votes such as the QS one tomorrow, and still be offed under the fixed term law.

To be precise, it would trigger another election if another government doesn't successfully form within 14 days of that confidence vote. Unless the DUP showed signs of backing a Labour government, in the case of a lost no-confidence vote the Conservative party would likely have an emergency change of leader and then try to convince the DUP to form a new government within those 14 days. If they succeed, they get to keep the government, if they fail, it's election time.

[Zaune]

good sir, i belive their ire is directed at their council, unless their MPs were unwise enough to wade into the sitatuation.

Give it time.

Grenfell's MP is already labour iirc.

And that sounds like you're advocating murder.

In case it's not immediately obvious, I was mostly joking.

[Tribble]

There is no concept of the prime minister or failing to pass legislation "dissolving parliament" anymore. Non-scheduled elections in the UK can only be held on a 2/3rds vote of the HOC, or a lost no-confidence vote. Besides those specific circumstances, May's government will stand for 5 years.

She can lose confidence votes such as the QS one tomorrow, and still be offed under the fixed term law.

To be precise, it would trigger another election if another government doesn't successfully form within 14 days of that confidence vote. Unless the DUP showed signs of backing a Labour government, in the case of a lost no-confidence vote the Conservative party would likely have an emergency change of leader and then try to convince the DUP to form a new government within those 14 days. If they succeed, they get to keep the government, if they fail, it's election time.

Well technically parliament isn't bound by anything under the parliamentary sovereignty principle, though I suppose it would take a vote in parliament to extend the 14 day rule or ignore it.

[jwl]

She can lose confidence votes such as the QS one tomorrow, and still be offed under the fixed term law.

To be precise, it would trigger another election if another government doesn't successfully form within 14 days of that confidence vote. Unless the DUP showed signs of backing a Labour government, in the case of a lost no-confidence vote the Conservative party would likely have an emergency change of leader and then try to convince the DUP to form a new government within those 14 days. If they succeed, they get to keep the government, if they fail, it's election time.

Well technically parliament isn't bound by anything under the parliamentary sovereignty principle, though I suppose it would take a vote in parliament to extend the 14 day rule or ignore it.

They'd have to draft a bill to change that, and my understanding is thatthey can only do that after parliament opens, and that only happens after a successful Queen's speech (and besides, unless the bill has basically no opposition in both the commons and the lords, it would probably take longer than 14 days to pass).

[Dominus Atheos]

There is no concept of the prime minister or failing to pass legislation "dissolving parliament" anymore. Non-scheduled elections in the UK can only be held on a 2/3rds vote of the HOC, or a lost no-confidence vote. Besides those specific circumstances, May's government will stand for 5 years.

She can lose confidence votes such as the QS one tomorrow, and still be offed under the fixed term law.

There are no "confidence votes" anymore, only "no-confidence votes". Yes, there is apparently a difference. From The Guardian last October:

Tuesday 25 October 2016

...Apparently it is very easy to forget about obscure constitutional rules such as the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act, which the coalition government passed in 2011. Just as Odysseus had his hands tied to the mast so that he could listen to the sirens, the coalition passed a law to prevent an early election before 2015. They did so by allowing only two paths to an early election. The prime minister, and the queen, no longer have a say on their own.

One way is for parliament to vote for an early election, if two-thirds of all the members of the House of Commons (434 MPs) agree. The other way is for a simple majority, 51% of those voting, to pass a motion of no confidence in the government. The no-confidence motion has to take a specific form. A government cannot force backbenchers to agree to a bill, as John Major did on the EU, by making a vote on the bill one “of confidence”. If a no-confidence vote is passed, and a new government cannot be formed within two weeks (and approved in a new vote of confidence), then a general election occurs.

[The Romulan Republic]

Fingers crossed for PM Corbyn (aka British Bernie).

[Eternal_Freedom]

Fingers crossed for PM Corbyn (aka British Bernie).

Given how many seats short of a majority Labour is, I think him trying to form a minority government would be a terrible idea for him - he'd be able to get nothing done and he'd have to handle Brexit talks and everyone would blame him for the inevitably shitty results.

The best play IMO would be to let the current Tory shambles continue for a few months, then when it becomes clear to everyone that the situation is unworkable, push for a new election and hopefully get an actual majority.

[The Romulan Republic]

Yeah, what I'm hoping for is another election soon, not Corbyn trying to cobble together a coalition or something with the current breakdown of seats.

[Crazedwraith]

Conservatives agree pact with DUP to support May government
The Conservatives have reached an agreement with the Democratic Unionists which will see them support Theresa May's minority government.

The deal comes after two weeks of talks between the parties since the election resulted in a hung Parliament.

The DUP's 10 MPs will back the Tories in key Commons votes, starting with the Queen's Speech later this week, but there will be no formal coalition.

The talks focused on financial support for Northern Ireland and Brexit.

The DUP has claimed the UK government has agreed to improve the treatment of military veterans in Northern Ireland as part of the agreement but played down reports that it had sought £2bn in extra funding for Northern Ireland in return for their support

Mrs May shook hands with DUP leader Arlene Foster as she and other senior party figures arrived at Downing Street on Monday to finalise the pact.

The two leaders then watched as Conservative chief whip Gavin Williamson and his DUP counterpart Jeffrey Donaldson signed the documents in No 10.

Under the so-called "confidence and supply" arrangement, the DUP will line up behind the government in key votes, such as on the Queen's Speech and Budgets, which would threaten the government's survival if they were lost.

On other legislation, however, the DUP's support is not necessarily guaranteed - although the Northern Ireland party is expected to back the majority of the government's programme for the next two years after many of its more controversial policies were dropped.

Theresa May fell nine seats short of an overall majority after the snap election, meaning she is reliant on other parties to pass legislation, including relating to the terms of the UK's withdrawal from the EU.

The support of the DUP will give her an effective working majority of 13, given that Sinn Fein do not take up their seven seats and Speaker John Bercow and his three deputies - two of whom are Labour MPs - do not take part in votes.

Several senior Tories had advised her to govern without any formal agreement with the DUP, arguing the unionist party would not be prepared to bring Mrs May down and run the risk of triggering a fresh election given their longstanding hostility to Jeremy Corbyn and other senior Labour figures.

Former PM Sir John Major warned that a formal association with the DUP could undermine attempts to restore power-sharing government in Northern Ireland while some MPs said the DUP's socially conservative stance on issues such as gay marriage and abortion could damage the party in the longer term.

Labour have demanded details of how much the deal will cost UK taxpayers and what financial promises have been made.

But the Tories and DUP have said the pact will give the UK much-needed stability as it embarks on the Brexit process.

[The Romulan Republic]

Well, here's hoping it doesn't last too long.

[Zaune]

It doesn't have to last very long to cause an awful lot of damage. Even with the recent election proving that there is actually some mileage in supporting Corbyn's platform, I don't entirely trust the remaining Blairite faction within the Labour party to vote against whatever godwaful repressive authoritarian unpleasantness May thinks up next.

[The Romulan Republic]

Well, we'll see. I can't imagine what Labour politicians would stand to gain politically by opposing Corbyn after his recent successes, though I don't doubt May's Conservatives can do a lot of damage yet. Though that will likely only fuel support for Corbyn in the long run.

[FireNexus]

Corbin hasn't really so much had recent success as the Torres have had recent extreme failures and he wins by default when the Tories implode. Frankly, I'd call his inability to gain a majority after the clusterfuck of the snap campaign indicative of just how stupidly weak he is, but I don't know enough about British politics to have a good sense of whether that is a fair characterization.