Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

[loomer]

If we all live long enough to see it, the conflict may kickstart a real push to implement the Kampala amendments to the Rome Statute more broadly. I encourage all of you in CANZUS to write to your local, state, and federal politicians to urge them to bring whatever pressure to bear that they can on our governing States to ratify the Kampala amendments - and in the case of the US, to acknowledge the ICC itself and do away with that absurd law that promises war on it if it ever prosecutes an American war crime. Our ability to fight the rising tide may be limited but we can all do at least that much, even if it amounts to screaming at a deaf wall in some cases.

[Col. Crackpot]

Elfdart:

- The Americans did it first so boo boo
- Gotta de nazify the country with the Jewish president.

Congrats you are now an imperialist apologist. It’s ok, I was one once. You can be cured. One day at a a time bro. One day at a a time.

Question, is Canada Nazi country too? With those truckers and all?

Strawman much?

How does it feel to nitpick and argue semantics to defend this butchery? Does it make you proud?

I’m ashamed of my support the Iraq war. Ashamed. That’s how you should feel right now. If you don’t, you will someday.

[MKSheppard]

I've been away due to work (being so tired from one day that I went straight to sleep and slept through the opening of the war; and then being at work for two straight days due to an ice storm for the first two days of the war).



Looks like the Russians/Belarusians used the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone to pass through for their western pincer on Kiev.

So far with this war we have:

• Battle of Chernobyl in the Exclusion Zone
• Failed VDV air assault at Hostomel Airport -- VDV landed in helicopters and were wiped out after 8 hours.
• Failed VDV airborne landings at Vasylkiv Airport, two IL-76s were shot down (claimed by US officials).

Russian casualties claimed by the Ukrainians for the first 36 hours (I think) are:

100+ tanks
500+ "Armoured Combat Vehicles"
17+ aircraft (helos and jets)
3000~ troops.

I would have downgraded the Ukrainian estimates to 1000~ killed; since after all, you can count burned out wrecks on the battlefield and be sure of vehicle losses; but human losses are hard.

But after the Vasylkiv assault with two IL-76s shot down, I'm inclined now to increase it to 2000~ killed.

[Col. Crackpot]

Shep, I can’t get over how poorly the vaunted VDV has apparently performed thus far. Two companies worth being shot out of the sky in their planes isn’t necessarily their ‘fault’, but you have to question the judgement of why they were flying big honking IL-76’s over heavily contested airspace. Those are juicy targets.

And getting their asses kicked at Hostomel. Yikes.

[Broomstick]

https://twitter.com/nbcnews/status/1497 ... 33570?s=21

Kazakhstan rejects Russia’s request for military assistance in Ukraine.

Not sure what help Kazakhstan could provide even if they wanted to, Belarus is Russia's only ally in the region.

Bodies to use as cannon fodder would be my guess.

Putin seems to want to push nations to pick a side. I hope he is disappointed in his attempt gather allies.

[His Divine Shadow]

Given how well they're faring against the ukrainians, a nation with a smaller military budget than Finland, I am less worried about Putin trying the same in the baltics or on Finland.

[Broomstick]

I've been pondering this statement. Is it ever morally justified to support/defend Nazis?

Well... we've had Nazis in the US since the 1930's. The rule here is that they can believe whatever they like but they can't use their beliefs to break the law or harm others without consequences. If they can live in civilization with others - not liking the neighbors but not harming them either - then they are just as much citizens as anyone else.

The Nazi fanboy in Idaho who watches Elsa She-Wolf of the SS in his basement is not in any way comparable to the Azov Battalion, which has been incorporated into Ukraine's armed forces, and is armed and supplied by the US government:

I see your point, but in this case the Nazis are not the ones invading another country, blowing shit up, and killing civilians.

It is entirely possible for two parties to be evil sons of bitches and yet one of them is more aggressive, dangerous, and problematic than the other.

Yes, Ukraine has what we regard as a serious problem with far-right nutjobs with Nazi ideology. They also have a Jewish guy as president. Not sure how you reconcile those two facts. Ukraine can be a seriously corrupt, fucked-up society that is, nonetheless, multicultural. Sort of like a lot of other nations these days.

In WWII the US and UK (along with various governments-in-exile) joined forces with the monster called Stalin in order to defeat what was perceived to be a greater threat. That never meant we liked Stalin, or the USSR, or agreed with them in most things, just that we were able to work together on a common problem called "Hitler".

Likewise, we don't have to like or agree with Ukraine, either the government or the various factions in their society, in order to work with them to deal with Putin aggression. It's been shown again and again since the end of WWII that when countries stay within their boundaries the world stays relatively peaceful. Not perfect, a long long way from ideal, but fewer destroyed cities and dead bodies which is generally seen as a good thing. When they don't it turns into a clusterfuck. I include examples provided by the US as well as other parties.

Putin started this clusterfuck. He's in the wrong. We don't have to like his target/victim in order to assist them, and after this is over we can get all pissy again about whatever aspect of Ukraine you or we find offensive. A country trying to conquer other countries strikes me as more of a problem than a country that has an internal Nazi problem that stays inside their border.

Putin is respecting Ukraine's border just like Uncle Sam has respected the borders of [I'm too fucking tired to list all the countries we've invaded -but you get my point].

Right. The US created some epic clusterfucks. Which just proves my point that countries that invade other countries result in a clusterfuck. As you point out, the only thing that gets predatory nations under control is real consequences. After Saddam invaded Kuwait the UN coalition booted him out - and the good thing is that it stopped there. At the time. Going back in turned into - surprise! - clusterfuck because it was NOT done to right a wrong but under a pall of lies and deceit. Afghanistan turned into a clusterfuck for the Soviets. Also for the US - at the latest we should have pulled out after bin Laden was killed because that was our original justification, if the US should have been there at all, but regardless, that, too, was a clusterfuck. So, having seen these examples (and others) we can expect that under any circumstances Putin rolling into Ukraine was also going to be a clusterfuck. It doesn't help that in Putin's case he's been allowed to get away with seizing other peoples' territory (Georgia, Chechnya, Crimea, etc.) and the world has done fuck all, both because he's gotten away with it AND because the US has not truly faced just consequences for their foreign fuckups. Everyone wants the money and power that comes from getting cozy with a major/super power. Everyone is afraid to suffer economically to do the right thing and prevent worse shit in the future. Corruption is everywhere. Guess what: that's how it's always been. I don't have a fix for that, but for damn sure empire builders are bad for the world at large. Putin has announced he wants to build an empire. That is the problem we face today, right now, and saying "oh, but these guys did this thing 20 years ago!" is not helping, other than being an illustration of what NOT to do to handle situation.

He was looking for an excuse to paste Ukraine for so much as thinking about hooking up with NATO and the neo-Nazi militias gave him a dandy one.

And...? Yes, he was looking for an excuse and he found one. If he hadn't found that particular one he would have found a different one. Or made one up as Bullshit the Younger did. Just like a rapist will say he picked a victim because she had big tits or wore slutty clothes or whatever but the real reason is that the rapist thought he could get away with raping that particular victim. Putin didn't target Ukraine out of some moral outrage over Nazis, he did it because he wants the territory and thought he could easily get away with it. Don't blame the rape victim no matter how drunk, slutty, or stupid her actions, blame the actual aggressor. Don't excuse Putin by blaming Ukraine, blame Putin for the war he started.

And here in the US we have White Nationalists and White Supremacists (which are just Nazis in less stylish clothing) conducting massacres and attempting a coup on our government so we too have a problem with these assholes having an influence way beyond their numbers. Also a shit-ton of government corruption, attempted foreign interference in our elections, and some of our high ranking government guys in the pocket of Russia, along with various corporations and factions that are anything but democratic, fair, humane, or just.

Condemning Ukraine solely for the points you raise would be hypocritical, the pot calling the kettle black.

[Broomstick]

Looks like the Russians/Belarusians used the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone to pass through for their western pincer on Kiev.

My very-much-not-a-military-geek understanding is that going through the Exclusion Zone was, based on terrain and geography, one of the shorter/more practical routes to Kyiv. Keep to the road and radiation exposure is minimal, just don't dig up/shoot any hot spots (although apparently something got stirred up, though not a nuclear catastrophe level of radiation increase). Is that a fair take, do you think?

• Failed VDV air assault at Hostomel Airport -- VDV landed in helicopters and were wiped out after 8 hours.
• Failed VDV airborne landings at Vasylkiv Airport, two IL-76s were shot down (claimed by US officials).

Now, what I'm a bit puzzled about is the two IL-76's.

Again, I'm not an expert, just a civilian trying to understand this so please enlighten me if my understanding is faulty.

The Ukrainians many have smaller anti-aircraft weapons, man-portable stuff, which actually isn't too bad for bringing down helicopters given they tend to fly low and slow compared to fixed-wing. So shooting down helicopters isn't a surprise. Neither is overwhelming troops landed by helicopters

But.. the IL-76s. Sure, to drop paratroopers they won't be flying at maximum speed (jumping into a Mach 0.8 airstream is generally not a good thing) so they'll be "slow" (relative to what they could do) but IL-76's are supposed to have a service ceiling of 43,000 feet. Shouldn't they be able to fly the IL-76s high enough to be at minimal or no risk from Ukrainian ground-based weapons? Fly 'em in high, HALO jump, and hope the Ukrainians don't spot the troops descending soon enough to shoot them out of the sky (yeah, shooting a guy under canopy has often been considered bad form, but war isn't about fair or nice).

How the hell did the Ukrainians take down two IL-76s? Is that confirmed? Can they not do HALO jumps? Was it mechanical failure due to shitty maintenance? WTF?

[Broomstick]

Given how well they're faring against the ukrainians, a nation with a smaller military budget than Finland, I am less worried about Putin trying the same in the baltics or on Finland.

Same. Although it could still be bloody and nasty and a stupid, useless, loss of life if he tries it.

I'd prefer this stop in Ukraine with no more international borders crossed. There has already been too much death and destruction.

[His Divine Shadow]

The way I see it.

1. The west has known russias stance on ukraine and expansion into eastern europe in general since the collapse of the soviet union.
2. The west still did that, because the eastern european countries wanted it and they have that right to decide for themselves where to align themselves.
3. That did however cause a negative reaction within russia and has dominated russian security politics since then and they've only gotten more paranoid and desperate as more eastern countries look west instead of east.

We've basically known this since the 90s. Western expansion into the east was always going to be met with increasing russian resistance. That does not excuse Russian aggression mind you, explaining their reasoning is not condoning it (this is a huge problem right now). The problem is we refused to accept that it would provoke this reaction. We're pretending we did not see this coming. We had our collective heads so far up our end of history assholes that we thought we could keep on going and eventually sensible moderate politicians would emerge victorius and the russian situation would de-escalate and all of eastern europe would somehow join the EU and it would all be fine. The EU refused to see what it was doing, they were all just ho hum we're just this loose association of business interests and free trade, we're not a superpower in our own right that's moving our sphere of influence eastwards. Business sense will prevail in the end, you'll see! Russia has more to gain from trade than war (this is also true)!

We were wrong, the russians did not act like we thought, they where crazier than we thought, more desperate than we thought, more angry than we thought.

So what should we have done? I see only three paths.

1. Don't expand the EU eastwards, don't let eastern european counties join Nato. Abandon the area to the russian sphere of influence against the wishes of people there.
2. Some kind of compromise where the ex-soviet states are turned into a neutral zone where the russians or western powers agree not expand their influence into.
3. Expand eastwards but realize this is heading to eventual war, expand eastwards and expect and prepare for war to defend the eastern borders, keep building up the european militaries and be prepared to move eastwards to confront russia.

And we basically have a similar choice now. Fight back or let the russians take what they want. It seems we're again trying to do neither of the two, as if we could occupy two positions at once like some quantum object.

[His Divine Shadow]

I might also say if we had built up our militaries and been prepared from the start to defend our eastern sphere of influence (which would have required us to see it as our sphere of influence), it would probably have made the russians less likely to attack a strong foe. But right now, they know europe is fractured and weak and unable to muster up a coherent response, only if the americans got involved could we do jack or shit, and the russians are betting on that not happening.

[MKSheppard]

Looks like the Russians/Belarusians used the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone to pass through for their western pincer on Kiev.

My very-much-not-a-military-geek understanding is that going through the Exclusion Zone was, based on terrain and geography, one of the shorter/more practical routes to Kyiv. Keep to the road and radiation exposure is minimal, just don't dig up/shoot any hot spots (although apparently something got stirred up, though not a nuclear catastrophe level of radiation increase). Is that a fair take, do you think?

Pretty much. Also the Russians may have though the Ukrainians may have discounted a move through the Exclusion zone as being possible.

The Ukrainians many have smaller anti-aircraft weapons, man-portable stuff, which actually isn't too bad for bringing down helicopters given they tend to fly low and slow compared to fixed-wing. So shooting down helicopters isn't a surprise. Neither is overwhelming troops landed by helicopters

The rumor I've heard from an arms importer/exporter on a firearms board who posted it is that the Ukrainians used a Tochka-U ballistic missile against the VDV at Hostomel Airport -- and that's what broke the stalemate and enabled the 8 hour fight to end.

It does make a bit of sense; since a 400+ kg warhead with a blast frag lethal radius of 200m arriving suddenly out of nowhere with no other sign would qualify as "significant shock value".

How the hell did the Ukrainians take down two IL-76s? Is that confirmed? Can they not do HALO jumps? Was it mechanical failure due to shitty maintenance? WTF

I've seen one claim that the Ukrainians got one with a Su-27, don't know about the other IL-76.

Elsewhere, the Russians are currently bringing up the following near Belgorod, RU to fight near Karkhov, Ukraine:

https://twitter.com/fpleitgenCNN/status ... 5350452231
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1497513126924853259

TOS-1 heavy flamethrowers
2S4 Tyulpan 240mm heavy mortars
2S7M Malka 203mm heavy guns

[Zaune]

Two companies worth being shot out of the sky in their planes isn’t necessarily their ‘fault’, but you have to question the judgement of why they were flying big honking IL-76’s over heavily contested airspace.

Overconfidence made someone get careless, presumably.

[Col. Crackpot]

https://twitter.com/tsihanouskaya/statu ... 84996?s=21

Belarus is about to slip into civil war over this. Opposition party leader declares Lukashko a traitor and calling for his arrest. She has appointed herself “National Leader”

This it about to get ugly

[Broomstick]

It was already ugly. You mean "uglier"

[Col. Crackpot]

It was already ugly. You mean "uglier"

I guess I’m running out of adjectives

[EnterpriseSovereign]

https://twitter.com/tsihanouskaya/statu ... 84996?s=21

Belarus is about to slip into civil war over this. Opposition party leader declares Lukashko a traitor and calling for his arrest. She has appointed herself “National Leader”

This it about to get ugly

And here I thought Belarus was one of the few firmly on Russia's side?

[Broomstick]

They were. Past tense.

Shit is starting to fall apart for Putin. I'd take bets on him being dead in the near future but the fact that if this spins out of control a lot more people than just Putin could be dead makes me not want to get that ghoulish.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

They were. Past tense.

Shit is starting to fall apart for Putin. I'd take bets on him being dead in the near future but the fact that if this spins out of control a lot more people than just Putin could be dead makes me not want to get that ghoulish.

Almost looks like he didn't think this through- the elephant in the room is that Russia will keep causing problems until a permanent solution is found.

[MKSheppard]

https://twitter.com/tsihanouskaya/statu ... 84996?s=21

Belarus is about to slip into civil war over this. Opposition party leader declares Lukashko a traitor and calling for his arrest. She has appointed herself “National Leader”

This it about to get ugly

She's actually the only person who ran against Lukashenko in 2020; and she's currently in exile outside Belarus.

It all hinges, I think on whether Lukashenko honors the "request" from Putin to send Belarusian troops into Ukraine. If he does it, that opens the door to units mutinying.

[MKSheppard]

The 141st Akhmad Kadyrov Special Motorized Regiment of Russia’s National Guard (Rosgvardia) is one of two "Putin's Chechens" units currently in/near Ukraine.

Current story (so far) is that the Russians sent it to Hostomel Airfield as part of the fighting on/near it; and (stories differ):
'
1.) Ukrainian SBU Alfa Group ambushed one of their columns.
or
2.) Ukrainians called in artillery on one of their columns.

Either way, the CO of the 141st -- Magomed Tushayev -- is now dead.

This makes me wonder how badly that unit was mauled; and whether that tied into Putin's decision to call up more Chechen troops from Groznyy for the Ukrainian War.

[Beowulf]

But.. the IL-76s. Sure, to drop paratroopers they won't be flying at maximum speed (jumping into a Mach 0.8 airstream is generally not a good thing) so they'll be "slow" (relative to what they could do) but IL-76's are supposed to have a service ceiling of 43,000 feet. Shouldn't they be able to fly the IL-76s high enough to be at minimal or no risk from Ukrainian ground-based weapons? Fly 'em in high, HALO jump, and hope the Ukrainians don't spot the troops descending soon enough to shoot them out of the sky (yeah, shooting a guy under canopy has often been considered bad form, but war isn't about fair or nice).

How the hell did the Ukrainians take down two IL-76s? Is that confirmed? Can they not do HALO jumps? Was it mechanical failure due to shitty maintenance? WTF?

HALO isn't a standard paratrooper skill. They generally only static line jump. Only special ops have HALO as a standard skill. Most paratrooper parachutes aren't especially steerable. Also, perfectly acceptable to shoot at paratroopers under canopy. Can't shoot people under canopy escaping from a plane, but that's because they hors de combat then. Paratroopers are still being transported when they're under canopy.

[Col. Crackpot]

https://twitter.com/YourAnonTV/status/1 ... 2Fpage-466

Anonymous is claiming to have hacked Russian State Television and is showing the truth of the war in Ukraine.

Holy shit if this is true!

[MKSheppard]

https://twitter.com/psyuhp/status/1497688742341005316

Operation Red fuckin' Dawn.

[Col. Crackpot]

https://twitter.com/psyuhp/status/1497688742341005316

Operation Red fuckin' Dawn.

Dropping paratroopers into the middle of a city where there is a rifle in every window and everyone has a closet full of Molotovs. That has to be the most incredibly stupid idea I have ever seen. Ukrainians are going to roast the VDV and eat them alive.