General North Korea thread

[Ralin]

Hell, Trump might take it as an excuse to withdraw US forces from South Korea and Japan afterward.

[The Romulan Republic]

One never can tell, with that ass hat.

[Flagg]

Maybe that's just me being cynical, but I remember seeing people on TV after 911 saying things like we should bomb Mecca, and this would probably be far worse.

Yeah, and I also remember those people being shouted down. And even when Bush launched multiple stupid wars it was with the stated goal of liberating oppressed Muslims and stopping the bad ones (honestly I think there's more Islamophobia in America now than in the year after 9/11). War of extermination was never seriously talked about by anyone in a position of authority.

I mean, yeah, again, Trump is president, but he hasn't literally declared he intends to rid the Earth of Muslims either, so let's not exaggerate how different things are.

The one thing I have to give half-ape George W Bush credit for (frankly he never has gotten enough praise for it), is that in the weeks and months after 9/11 (when there were polls showing upwards of 80% of "Freedom Loving (for themselves) Americans" were in favor of rounding up Arabs, Muslim or not, and putting them in "Concentration Internment camps" ala the Japanese in WW2, because for all their tough talk, Americans in general are a bunch of cowardly shits), He went out of his way to not stigmatize Arabs or Muslims, and make clear delineations between the Muslim cunts we are fighting and the vast majority who we are not.

Once Obama started running (When a woman said Obama was "an Arab" and McCain said that no, Obama wasn't an Arab, he was a good man with whom he (McCain) disagreed, since apparently all Arabs are horribly evil shits (and the media fawned over him, despite it being a horrible example of how the Right Wing in the US is just bad) ) and then took office, is when the anti-Arab shit really started on the Right.

[mr friendly guy]

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/201 ... rea-prison

Otto Warmbier dies days after being returned from North Korea
University of Virginia student, held for 17 months in prison with hard labor for trying to steal a propaganda poster, had been in a coma since returning home

Otto Warmbier, the 22-year-old student who was returned to the US in a coma last week after 17 months as a prisoner in North Korea, has died in a Cincinnati hospital, his parents announced.

“It is our sad duty to report that our son, Otto Warmbier, has completed his journey home. Surrounded by his loving family, Otto died today at 2.20pm,” Fred and Cindy Warmbier wrote in a statement on Monday.

They added that his death had been inevitable as a result of “the awful torturous mistreatment our son received at the hands of the North Koreans”.

Warmbier was arrested at Pyongyang airport in January 2016 and sentenced in March to 15 years hard labour for allegedly taking a propaganda poster from his hotel room, where he had been staying as part of an organised tour.


Otto Warmbier has severe brain injury and is unresponsive, doctors say
Read more
The University of Virginia student wept at his sentencing, saying: “I have made the worst mistake of my life.” The trial reportedly lasted less than an hour.

He was medically evacuated from North Korea last Tuesday and flown to the US. Doctors from the University of Cincinnati medical centre, where Warmbier was taken, said he had suffered injuries related to cardiopulmonary arrest and was in a state of unresponsive wakefulness. Scans showed extensive loss in all regions of Warmbier’s brain.

“When Otto returned to Cincinnati late on 13 June he was unable to speak, unable to see and unable to react to verbal commands,” his parents said in their statement. “He looked very uncomfortable – almost anguished. Although we would never hear his voice again, within a day the countenance of his face changed – he was at peace. He was home and we believe he could sense that.”

The Warmbier family thanked the doctors for their efforts on Monday but added: “Unfortunately, the awful torturous mistreatment our son received at the hands of the North Koreans ensured that no other outcome was possible beyond the sad one we experienced today.”

“It would be easy at a moment like this to focus on all that we lost – future time that won’t be spent with a warm, engaging, brilliant young man whose curiosity and enthusiasm for life knew no bounds,” the Warmbiers’ statement said. “But we choose to focus on the time we were given to be with this remarkable person.”

Speaking at a public event on Friday, Donald Trump took credit on behalf of his administration for getting Warmbier back.

“Let me start by saying that I’m glad Secretary of State of Rex Tillerson and I, along with a very talented team, were able to get Otto Warmbier back with his parents,” Trump said in a speech in Miami. “What’s happened to him is a truly terrible thing, but at least the ones who love him so much can now take care of him and be with him.”

Commenting on Warmbier’s death on Monday, President Trump said: “Lot of bad things happened, but at least we got him home to be with his parents.”


The three US citizens still detained in North Korea
Read more
Speaking during a White House event, he added: “It’s a brutal regime and we’ll be able to handle it.”

In a statement later, Trump offered his condolences to Warmbier’s parents, and said: “Otto’s fate deepens my Administration’s determination to prevent such tragedies from befalling innocent people at the hands of regimes that do not respect the rule of law or basic human decency.”

John McCain, the Republican senator, accused North Korea of murdering Warmbier.

Follow
John McCain ✔ @SenJohnMcCain
Saddened by death of Otto Warmbier, tortured & murdered by #NorthKorea - US should not tolerate such hostile action https://www.mccain.senate.gov/public/in ... 7D231172C4 …
6:42 AM - 20 Jun 2017
509 509 Retweets 1,547 1,547 likes
Twitter Ads info and privacy
Republican senator Rob Portman, who is from Cincinnati, said North Korea should be “universally condemned for its abhorrent behavior”. Democratic senator Sherrod Brown said the country’s “despicable actions … must be condemned”. Portman added that the Warmbiers have “had to endure more than any family should have to bear”.

Three Americans remain held in North Korea. The US government accuses North Korea of using such detainees as political pawns. North Korea accuses Washington and South Korea of sending spies to overthrow its government.

Human Rights Watch said Warmbier’s death “after being abused in North Korean custody” proved the regime was willing to “brutalize and kill to maintain their hold on power.”

Phil Robertson, deputy director of the group’s Asia division said: “North Korea again reaffirmed its position as one of the worst human rights abusing governments in the world.”

Young Pioneer Tours, the travel company that took Warmbier to North Korea, has said it will no longer take US citizens into the country because “the risk is too high”.

[Broomstick]

My guess is that after Warmbier's trial something prompted a beating and it got out of hand, leaving him brain dead. The North Koreans waited until his other injuries healed before releasing him to the US.

Another theory I've heard, which would also seemingly fit with the facts as we know them, is a waterboarding gone bad.

Either way - too bad the young man is dead. But an American going to North Korea is bit like attempting to climb Everest: the death toll is significant and it doesn't take much of a mis-step or bit of bad luck to doom you.

[Exonerate]

On the contrary, there have been a number of foreign journalists, missionaries, etc who were arrested and upon return, although reported spartan conditions, did not report physical abuse, forced labor, or torture. Foreigners tend to get the kid gloves treatment because there's no value in a dead hostage and it tends to scare tourist cash cows away for little upside. I remain skeptical they waterboarded or beat him and suggest it's much more likely it was accidental or self-inflicted... And when the DPRK realized they couldn't treat him and they'd be in hot water if a hostage died in their care, they released him.

[Elheru Aran]

Whether or not Warmbier's (I cannot un-think 'warm beer' whenever I see that name) death came from mistreatment, self-inflicted injuries or simple disease/neglect, I suspect the Norks would have given him over sooner or later anyway. -Someone- in their government has to be perceptive enough to realize that you can't play chicken with Donald Trump, because he's not smart enough to know when to pull up short or turn out of the way.

[Exonerate]

Successful ICBM test by North Korea, fun times. Apogee (corroborated by Japan's MFA) of ~2800 km and range of ~900 km.

[Adam Reynolds]

How nice of them to give the US a 4th of July present.

[Raj Ahten]

The amount of hyperventilating that comes from these tests in Washington is hard to countenance. It's not like thousands of warheads aren't already aimed at the US or anything. Living under the threat of impending doom from Russia and China is ok I guess but the possibility of a few warheads from North Korea seems to sow panic. As always no one seems capable of a real risk analysis.

[Broomstick]

The whole rationale behind MAD was that neither the US nor USSR really wanted a war and both feared accidentally triggering one. That's why it worked - both sides wanted peace (in the sense of not a direct war between them) even if they were enemies and often in conflict.

The problem is that North Korean is very belligerent in conduct and speech, is constantly doing shit that could provoke an open war (it's a bit of wonder that it hasn't - except no one really wants to shoot at them, despite their professed fears), and is basically continually poking wild animals with a pointy stick trying to get a reaction.

Now they have nukes (even shitty nukes being a Bad Thing) in addition to conventional weapons (enough that, even if they're shitty tanks and guns there is still a potential for nasty mayhem) and a brain-washed populace. It's a bit of a miracle this state of affairs has endured for half a century, but there's no guarantee that this will continue indefinitely because the Insane People Running the Asylum keep looking for bigger and pointier sticks to poke with.

The likelihood of any one incident erupting into disaster is low, the problem and the reason for the hyperventilating is that if one DOES blow it could be catastrophic with major horrific consequences. Low risk, high damage if it does occur.

[Raj Ahten]

The whole rationale behind MAD was that neither the US nor USSR really wanted a war and both feared accidentally triggering one. That's why it worked - both sides wanted peace (in the sense of not a direct war between them) even if they were enemies and often in conflict.

The problem is that North Korean is very belligerent in conduct and speech, is constantly doing shit that could provoke an open war (it's a bit of wonder that it hasn't - except no one really wants to shoot at them, despite their professed fears), and is basically continually poking wild animals with a pointy stick trying to get a reaction.

Now they have nukes (even shitty nukes being a Bad Thing) in addition to conventional weapons (enough that, even if they're shitty tanks and guns there is still a potential for nasty mayhem) and a brain-washed populace. It's a bit of a miracle this state of affairs has endured for half a century, but there's no guarantee that this will continue indefinitely because the Insane People Running the Asylum keep looking for bigger and pointier sticks to poke with.

The likelihood of any one incident erupting into disaster is low, the problem and the reason for the hyperventilating is that if one DOES blow it could be catastrophic with major horrific consequences. Low risk, high damage if it does occur.

Well of course North Korea having nukes is a bad thing which hard work should be put into to avoid if possible. It's hardly an existential threat to the US however. We've been one early warning system fart away from Armageddon for decades and that only elicits shrugs these days. It's kind of an inherent danger of having thousands of short alert weapons on standby and could lead to the end of civilization as we know it in an afternoon. North Korea's arsenal is in no danger of ending civilization by itself, though it could spark a wider conflict. The danger of escalation to a general nuclear exchange between the US, China and Russia is the real threat not that a couple missiles could theoretically hit the US mainland now. This is the sort of threat analysis I'm finding lacking in most discussions of North Korea these days.

Also North Korea's provocations are entirely rational given the power disparity at play. By actually sinking ships and bombarding islands they show that they have the capability and willingness to go toe to toe with the US if needed and will not stand idly by taking whatever the US decides to do to it. They have every reason to try and keep the US off balance given our history of regime change.

[Formless]

Hold your horses. They have a rocket. Said rocket may or may not be able to carry a nuclear device-- no one knows for sure how much NK can miniaturize its nukes. And the range of the missile? Good enough to hit all of Alaska, but it can't even hit Hawaii. Its a step up from what they have done in the past, but neither the US nor Russia think they have anything to worry about, according to the BBC.

If you are in South Korea or Japan, then maybe you should be concerned. But not really. Its just yet more of NK rattling its half built rusty saber.

Always make sure to check for sources when someone fails to link to them.

[Patroklos]

This is the sort of threat analysis I'm finding lacking in most discussions of North Korea these days.

Your threat analysis is limited to the existence of capability, and thus is simplistic and useless. A true risk assessment matrix looks at capability, severity and likelihood. For China and Russia the first two is high but the last is bottomed out. It this light that means capability is meaningless because it doesn't matter how many they have if there is zero likelihood of them being used. IF they wanted to they could, and IF they did the severity would be extreme, but their not going to so its not a risk you need to anticipate actually happening. Your preparations for this is similar to catastrophic health insurance coverage.

In the case of North Korea the first is bottomed out as it can be while still have a capability, but the other two are high. The second is only high because the novelty of the weapon and modern risk aversion means any nuclear activity has a high perception of severity. The third is pegged pretty high not because it makes sense to do so, but because they are unpredictable which means you have to go with the highest grade. So now we have IF they wanted to they could, IF they did the severity will be high (because it always is), and the likelihood is high. You have a RAC code of at least three but possible 4 in military terms, which is pretty damn high.

Also North Korea's provocations are entirely rational given the power disparity at play. By actually sinking ships and bombarding islands they show that they have the capability and willingness to go toe to toe with the US if needed and will not stand idly by taking whatever the US decides to do to it. They have every reason to try and keep the US off balance given our history of regime change.

This is ridiculous logic. Sinking a corvette by ambushing it in peacetime and bombarding a barley inhabited island in no way signals they are willing to go toe to toe with the US. It signals they are insecure and justifies our posture against them. But you make the mistake of thinking any of this has to do with a foreign audience vice their internal audience.

[Marko Dash]

the problem with north korea isn't just that they have the nukes, it's that their leadership is batshit enough to think they could get away with using them.

[Gandalf]

the problem with north korea isn't just that they have the nukes, it's that their leadership is batshit enough to think they could get away with using them.

What makes you think that they actually think that?

[Elheru Aran]

the problem with north korea isn't just that they have the nukes, it's that their leadership is batshit enough to think they could get away with using them.

What makes you think that they actually think that?

Kim Junior and the family might be crazy enough if the various killings that have happened in the past couple years or so are anything to go by, but almost certainly the rest of the Nork general staff isn't, and presumably they've been in charge of the military for long enough that while they sit back and let the state propagandists bluster however much they want, if any actual crazy orders came through there would be a distinct period of 'huh what? REALLY he said to do WHAT now? Now just hold on a minute here...'

[Simon_Jester]

The flip side is, those same killings over the past couple of years have created a situation where it is far from inconceivable that North Korean generals would decide they have a better chance of surviving the aftermath of North Korea launching a nuclear first strike, than they have of surviving the aftermath of disobeying Kim Jong Un's orders.

I mean, worst probable case if they push the button, the US launches its own nuclear counterattack, right? Well, the thing is, a W78 can and will kill you if it lands on or near you... but you can be pretty sure it won't torture you, or kill any members of your family caught outside its blast radius and fallout plume.

I'm not saying this IS how North Korean generals think. But I doubt you'd be surprised in Kim Jong Un accompanied a nuclear attack order with a statement like "don't worry about the safety of your families, my most honorable generals and noble leaders of men; they have all been moved to very secure, amply provisioned, well-hardened fallout shelters at an undisclosed location in the mountains, guarded by a regiment of my most loyal troops."

Again, I'm not saying this IS what will happen, or that it will work. It's just that preventing mutiny by generals is something the North Korean government is probably actually good at, much better than they are at, say, reliably feeding their own people. So it's something to think about.

[mr friendly guy]

I wonder if Kim Fatty the Third has simply observed that the US loves regime change and concluded that a nuclear weapon will give extra guarantee that he won't be next.

[Simon_Jester]

To be fair, the first Kim wasn't fat as far as I know, so... 'the Second?'

More seriously, this is basically the logic that explains the North Korean nuclear arsenal in the first place, sure. The problem is- and this applies to EVERY nuclear power- once a nation gets nuclear weapons, everyone anywhere nearby has to spend the rest of history nervously eyeing it and trying to make sure it isn't about to launch its nuclear weapons. There simply is not a choice; you have to take that prospect as seriously as the plausibility of the threat indicates.

This is why both sides invested huge sums in early warning radars and second strike capability during the Cold War. Sure, they didn't specifically expect a nuclear attack, but when you know an enemy exists that has aimed hundreds of nuclear missiles at you, and you know they're working all over the world to undermine you and your allies at every turn, and when you are convinced they have goals of world domination... You cannot just ignore the threat, you have to honor it by constructing preparations.

...

The problem is that it's much harder to read North Korea than other nations. Their intentions are opaque, their communications are extremely xenophobic, and they do not permit much access to the top levels of their hierarchy. Whereas we have a pretty good idea of what the real priorities of the US government are by watching it in action, it's hard to predict what North Korea will do in response to, say, military wargames, or to Trump trying to tell China to pop them like a grape, or something else.

Consequently, even if we grant the premise that the original motive of the North Korean nuclear program was deterrence... it kind of doesn't matter. The nuclear weapons still physically exist, they can be used on enemies, and the Kims have quite deliberately kept their society and government closed rather than allow their citizens access to information. How much control do they have over nuclear weapons launches? We don't know, but it could very very easily be "enough to order a launch without the general in charge of the missile site revolting."

[Ralin]

So, tell me if I'm missing something, but... what exactly is the US trying to accomplish at this point? There is no scenario where North Korea will voluntarily give up their nuclear weapons or stop working to improve them. It would be stupid of them to do so. If there was ever a chance of that happening Iraq and Libya killed it forever. Having nukes is the only somewhat sure way they can guarantee the same won't happen to them, and the more they improve their nuclear option to do things like blow up San Francisco the surer that bet is. Non-proliferation has failed. The only way the DPRK is going to be disarmed is through invasion and bombing, and thus kablooey and defeating the point of disarming them in the first place.

Sanctions and other forms of pressure short of invasion and bombing are just going to make the situation worse. Why, other than the fact that Trump is president and to a lesser extent general right-wing backlash, does the US not just accept a nuclear-armed North Korea as a given and try to make a new start by offering things like normalized relations, removing US troops from the peninsula, trade agreements and the like?

[Broomstick]

So, tell me if I'm missing something, but... what exactly is the US trying to accomplish at this point?

What, you thought there was some carefully thought-out plan at any time in the past 64 years?

The closest thing to a plan there's been has been maintaining the status quo. That is, prevent a breakdown of the cease-fire and resumption of shooting.

Sanctions and other forms of pressure short of invasion and bombing are just going to make the situation worse. Why, other than the fact that Trump is president and to a lesser extent general right-wing backlash, does the US not just accept a nuclear-armed North Korea as a given and try to make a new start by offering things like normalized relations, removing US troops from the peninsula, trade agreements and the like?

Even the most liberal, left-wing president is not going to "accept" a nuclear-armed North Korea, or normalize relations, or remove US troops, or engage in trade.

First, even if the US desired to normalize relations there is no reason to believe that North Korea desires it. Remember that for 64 years the Americans have been demonized and portrayed as evil, and acted as scapegoat for the regime. The regime needs someone to play that role and if you remove the Americans from it who will replace them?

Second, if you remove US troops from the peninsula then South Korea will be invaded and subdued by the North. Reunification of the two Koreas has long been a goal of the North, but it would be under their system. I am not convinced this is something the South Koreans would want.

Finally - what the hell do the North Koreans have for trade purposes? Their top export is coal, which the US already has in abundance. Unless they have something other people want there is no trade.

[Ralin]

Even the most liberal, left-wing president is not going to "accept" a nuclear-armed North Korea, or normalize relations, or remove US troops, or engage in trade.

You're wrong. Barring country-destroying war every single US president from the most liberal to the most right-wing is going to accept a nuclear-armed North Korea. They don't have a choice because it has happened and they have no way to undo it, aside from the aforementioned kablooey.

First, even if the US desired to normalize relations there is no reason to believe that North Korea desires it.

Sure there is. Kim and his generals like eating. They presumably are not robots and they like all the luxuries that come from being wealthy. I can't imagine they actually enjoy living with the spectator of nation-ending war and possibly being strung up afterward. Being king of shit mountain only gets you so much. You think Kim Jong-un hasn't stopped to reflect at some point that Papa Xi across the border is way, way richer than he is?

Remember that for 64 years the Americans have been demonized and portrayed as evil, and acted as scapegoat for the regime. The regime needs someone to play that role and if you remove the Americans from it who will replace them?

I don't think this really matters, frankly. The 'regime' also tells people that the US sends them food as a form of tribute and that their founder invented desks before fucking back off to Heaven. They can say pretty much anything they please when it comes to propaganda.

Second, if you remove US troops from the peninsula then South Korea will be invaded and subdued by the North. Reunification of the two Koreas has long been a goal of the North, but it would be under their system. I am not convinced this is something the South Koreans would want.

Pfft, no. I don't know how it is that people don't seem to get this, but South Korea has a military and a pretty hefty one. Might not have the raw numbers of the DPRK, but the way I understand it they passed them up in military spending awhile back even though it's a smaller percentage of GDP. And their weapons are, uhm. Better.

American troops are not necessary to keep the DPRK from invading the south. Their presence would be appreciated if they tried I'm sure, but North Korea basically cannot conquer either of their neighbors.

Finally - what the hell do the North Koreans have for trade purposes? Their top export is coal, which the US already has in abundance. Unless they have something other people want there is no trade.

Lots of natural resources, IIRC. I'd have to look up a list, but the geography of the peninsula favors them heavily there. That's why the Japanese set up most of their factories there back in the day. Cheap labor also springs the mind, for whatever that's still worth nowadays.

So I reiterate: What exactly are we doing here?

[Gandalf]

Second, if you remove US troops from the peninsula then South Korea will be invaded and subdued by the North. Reunification of the two Koreas has long been a goal of the North, but it would be under their system.

No. This is just wrong on multiple levels. How did you even arrive at this statement?

Lots of natural resources, IIRC. I'd have to look up a list, but the geography of the peninsula favors them heavily there. That's why the Japanese set up most of their factories there back in the day. Cheap labor also springs the mind, for whatever that's still worth nowadays.

They're trying to open up parts of the country to controlled tourism, which requires better relations with other countries. Tourists if nothing else bring foreign currency, so it's something.

[Broomstick]

Even the most liberal, left-wing president is not going to "accept" a nuclear-armed North Korea, or normalize relations, or remove US troops, or engage in trade.

You're wrong. Barring country-destroying war every single US president from the most liberal to the most right-wing is going to accept a nuclear-armed North Korea. They don't have a choice because it has happened and they have no way to undo it, aside from the aforementioned kablooey.

"Accept" in the sense of like it, of course no one (I hope) is intending to strong arm the nukes away at this point. It is a fact that the US opposed the North Korea attempt (successful) to get nuclear tech. The fact that the US failed in that effort does not mean the US thinks Nork Nukes is a goo thing.

First, even if the US desired to normalize relations there is no reason to believe that North Korea desires it.

Sure there is. Kim and his generals like eating. They presumably are not robots and they like all the luxuries that come from being wealthy. I can't imagine they actually enjoy living with the spectator of nation-ending war and possibly being strung up afterward. Being king of shit mountain only gets you so much. You think Kim Jong-un hasn't stopped to reflect at some point that Papa Xi across the border is way, way richer than he is?

The Nork elite have had all that while being enemies of the US, what incentive do they have to change? What, exactly, do they need the US for? Do they want more money? I don't know - right now they have money AND power and pretty much any material thing they want.

Again - what incentive do they have to change this circumstance?

Remember that for 64 years the Americans have been demonized and portrayed as evil, and acted as scapegoat for the regime. The regime needs someone to play that role and if you remove the Americans from it who will replace them?

I don't think this really matters, frankly. The 'regime' also tells people that the US sends them food as a form of tribute and that their founder invented desks before fucking back off to Heaven. They can say pretty much anything they please when it comes to propaganda.

Yes, but reversing and suddenly saying Satan is you're best buddy is a lot harder than saying you have Satan on the ropes and he's paying you tribute.

For that matter, they can (and at times have) rejected US food aid - other people send them food and stuff, too. Most notably China but not just them. As long as North Korea's elite can convince their people to accept deprivation and poverty (mainly by keeping them ignorant and feeding them a lot of propaganda) they don't actually need the US for anything.

Second, if you remove US troops from the peninsula then South Korea will be invaded and subdued by the North. Reunification of the two Koreas has long been a goal of the North, but it would be under their system. I am not convinced this is something the South Koreans would want.

Pfft, no. I don't know how it is that people don't seem to get this, but South Korea has a military and a pretty hefty one. Might not have the raw numbers of the DPRK, but the way I understand it they passed them up in military spending awhile back even though it's a smaller percentage of GDP. And their weapons are, uhm. Better.

North Korean has nukes now. South Korea does not. Any nukes in South Korea are American and would go home along with the Damn Yankees if the US pulls out of the peninsula because the US does not give away that tech. It doesn't matter if they're shitty nukes and half of them or more are duds (basically, dirty bombs), nukes trump troops.

We can debate whether or not the Nork Nukes can reach California, but there's no question that they can reach South Korea.

Finally - what the hell do the North Koreans have for trade purposes? Their top export is coal, which the US already has in abundance. Unless they have something other people want there is no trade.

Lots of natural resources, IIRC. I'd have to look up a list, but the geography of the peninsula favors them heavily there. That's why the Japanese set up most of their factories there back in the day. Cheap labor also springs the mind, for whatever that's still worth nowadays.

Oh, right - I forgot about all the slave labor. Yeah, you got me on that. The multiple generations of families in the labor camps are available to work for no money and starvation rations, that beats the low-wage workers of China, Bangladesh, and so on. I concede that point.