General North Korea thread

[The Romulan Republic]

Honestly, as horrible as it would be, I think that the argument could be made for war with North Korea, in theory- both because its quite possibly the most horrifically despotic regime on the planet (or at least, if you don't count Daesh-controlled territory), and also because it continues to threaten the rest of the world while building a larger and larger arsenal. If its most likely going to blow up sooner or later, better now than later, when they have an even stronger arsenal. Though it would be even better if we had done in five years ago, when they couldn't hit Chicago and we had a competent, rational President.

But there's always the fear of China or Russia not being on the same page as us, and a misunderstanding resulting in a much larger war. And there's the fact that I wouldn't trust the corrupt chaos which is the Trump Administration with anything, much less waging what would probably be our largest war since WWII.

Moreover, there is a pattern throughout American history (and probably in many other countries too) of a major war resulting in a centralization of executive power, and a suppression of civil rights and liberties. Trump, based on everything we've seen of his character, would certainly seize that chance, going to lengths that Roosevelt or Lincoln never did, to assume far greater dictatorial power and suppress opposition.

At the risk of sounding alarmist, I also worry that Trump might just go all-out and do a nuclear first strike, which would have catastrophic implications, not least because if Trump did a preemptive nuclear strike, it would replace the traditional concept of deterrence by mutually assured destruction with the knowledge that the US was a rogue state that could pre-emptively nuke any of its adversaries.

I imagine our rivals would be re-evaluating their no first strike policies in that scenario.

But even in the best case scenario, it would be an unmitigated cluster fuck. So I honestly find myself wishing, if that's where we're headed (and I sincerely hope not) that Obama had bit the bullet and done it years ago.

[Ralin]

Honestly, as horrible as it would be, I think that the argument could be made for war with North Korea, in theory- both because its quite possibly the most horrifically despotic regime on the planet (or at least, if you don't count Daesh-controlled territory),

Do you have evidence that the Koreans themselves agree? Seeing as they'd be the ones who'd be on the receiving end of this.

and also because it continues to threaten the rest of the world while building a larger and larger arsenal. If its most likely going to blow up sooner or later, better now than later, when they have an even stronger arsenal. Though it would be even better if we had done in five years ago, when they couldn't hit Chicago and we had a competent, rational President.

Why would you believe that North Korea is most likely to 'blow up' at some point? Because they haven't done so in half a century and building up their arsenal (something most countries do if threatened and/or able to afford it) doesn't change the basic dynamic or give them the ability to win a war with the US or China.

[Gandalf]

Second, I think Kim (& company) like their missiles way too much - look at all the attention it's getting them.

It also makes solid protection from countries practising the Bush Doctrine,* when one can go from being a threat to "American Interests" to "American Homeland."

*Or whatever it'll be called next time the US decides to go crusading.

[The Romulan Republic]

Honestly, as horrible as it would be, I think that the argument could be made for war with North Korea, in theory- both because its quite possibly the most horrifically despotic regime on the planet (or at least, if you don't count Daesh-controlled territory),

Do you have evidence that the Koreans themselves agree? Seeing as they'd be the ones who'd be on the receiving end of this.

You're asking me to prove that Kim Jong Un is a brutal, mass-murdering despot?

I mean, I guess I should back up my arguments with evidence. But its kind of like being asked to prove that the Sun rises in the East every morning.

And I just love this coming from a guy who, as I recall, vehemently advocated terrorism against American Right wingers. It seems that you have rather a double standard on the use of violence to counter despotism, don't you? Considering that by probably any quantifiable standard, NK is a far shittier and more oppressive regime than the US.

And just to be clear: No, I am not advocating war with North Korea under the present circumstances. I think that it would be a mistake, even if theoretically justifiable in isolation, because of the risk of conflict with China and Russia, and because I wouldn't trust Trump to pick his own nose without fucking it up.

I'm just saying that if its going to happen (and I very much hope it doesn't), it would have most likely been better if it had happened five years ago, when they couldn't hit Chicago and we had a functional adult with an actual soul as President.

Why would you believe that North Korea is most likely to 'blow up' at some point? Because they haven't done so in half a century and building up their arsenal (something most countries do if threatened and/or able to afford it) doesn't change the basic dynamic or give them the ability to win a war with the US or China.

Because you can only play chicken so many times before your luck runs out, if only by accident.

And because its my understanding that the moment the rest of the world (including China) gets fed up enough with their horse shit to stop giving them aid, their economy will implode and they'll probably collapse (with the whole disaster spilling over into neighboring countries in the process).

Hope I'm wrong, but there is at least a high potential for the situation there to end very, very badly without any aggression on America's part.

[Ralin]

You're asking me to prove that Kim Jong Un is a brutal, mass-murdering despot?

I mean, I guess I should back up my arguments with evidence. But its kind of like being asked to prove that the Sun rises in the East every morning.

No dummy, I'm asking if you have evidence that the Koreans (on either side of the border) would prefer war over the current situation. Because I've never heard of anything resembling an attempted rebellion in the DPRK, even among the military. If they genuinely felt rolling the dice on regime change was worth it don't you think that would have happened back when there was mass cannibalism and shit happening?

Because you can only play chicken so many times before your luck runs out, if only by accident.

I wouldn't describe most of what the DPRK has done as 'playing chicken.' They've done shit that would kick off a war elsewhere, but in this case their saber-rattling and occasional sinking of a ship or ax murder is a known Thing That Happens.

Again, you're ascribing instability to a state that held it together through a nation-wide eating grass-level famine. I see zero reason to think that North Korea 'blowing up' is an inevitability, or even especially likely.

[Broomstick]

All my life I've been hearing that the North Korean economy was going to implode. It's been how many years? Maybe folks should consider that it might not implode.

[Ralin]

All my life I've been hearing that the North Korean economy was going to implode. It's been how many years? Maybe folks should consider that it might not implode.

Yes, exactly. This is a country that's gone pretty damned far off the deep end and managed to at least keep it together, and things have actually gotten better over the past couple decades. People seriously need to get some perspective.

[LaCroix]

To be honest, the only time for a military intervention is right now, and hoping China and Russia keep out of it (and hope for a pet dragon for christmas, while you're at it). From this day forward, the collateral cost will rise as more missiles and warheads are getting built.
At the moment the NK most likely has nukes mounted in these things, so any invasion becomes quite impossible, for they will simply lob one at any attacking fleet or army. You can only hope they miss and don't have many.

For a military intervention, there is pretty much no good way out left.
I hope people manage to convey this message to Trump in a way he can understand.

[FireNexus]

But there's always the fear of China or Russia not being on the same page as us, and a misunderstanding resulting in a much larger war. And there's the fact that I wouldn't trust the corrupt chaos which is the Trump Administration with anything, much less waging what would probably be our largest war since WWII.

There would be no misunderstanding. China would consider an attack on North Korea by the US wiTh the intention of deposing the Kim regime an act of war, or at least aggression, against China. If anybody is deposing Kim, it's China. And you can bet your left nut that if they were to do so, he'd be replaced with a more reliable Chinese puppet and that the refugee flow would be due south.

But that's not going to happen. The absolute BEST we can hope for is Kim agreeing to some kind of constitutional monarchy arrangement due to sanctions, on the condition of total immunity for him and any supporters. Even that seems unlikely. More likely status quo with no shots ever actually being fired.

[FireNexus]

All my life I've been hearing that the North Korean economy was going to implode. It's been how many years? Maybe folks should consider that it might not implode.

It HAS imploded. People are barely above starving and that is after a famine which killed millions. You don't get much more imploded than everybody starving. What we're seeing is that the right mix of propaganda, public fear, and support from self-interested neighbors can sustain a regime even through such economic hardship.

[Flagg]

All my life I've been hearing that the North Korean economy was going to implode. It's been how many years? Maybe folks should consider that it might not implode.

It HAS imploded. People are barely above starving and that is after a famine which killed millions. You don't get much more imploded than everybody starving. What we're seeing is that the right mix of propaganda, public fear, and support from self-interested neighbors can sustain a regime even through such economic hardship.

North Korea has an economy? It's so poor that I've heard stories about how you never hear birds chirping or see them flying around because people have to catch and eat them to survive. I've heard stories from less reputable sources that in addition to whatever meager amount of food the people do get, they literally will eat dirt just so their stomachs are full and the hunger pain is lessened.

[Elheru Aran]

I suspect North Korea has made it as far as it had more or less by virtue of the government/military physically strong-arming the country through periods of privation even more extreme than the norm.

I mean, this is a country that has built cities of empty houses merely to show off; they literally don't have the population to fill these cities, or the population can't afford to move there... and this in a control economy where the government could, in theory, literally just move them there. That suggests, fairly strongly, to me that when famine and whatnot kicks in? The peons get the shaft, hard, while all that juicy foreign aid goes to the soldiers and the bureaucrats.

Add in the saber-rattling and the obnoxious attitude towards diplomacy, and they can make it last a while as long as they don't cross the line. Where that line may be right now... I don't know.

[Flagg]

I suspect North Korea has made it as far as it had more or less by virtue of the government/military physically strong-arming the country through periods of privation even more extreme than the norm.

I mean, this is a country that has built cities of empty houses merely to show off; they literally don't have the population to fill these cities, or the population can't afford to move there... and this in a control economy where the government could, in theory, literally just move them there. That suggests, fairly strongly, to me that when famine and whatnot kicks in? The peons get the shaft, hard, while all that juicy foreign aid goes to the soldiers and the bureaucrats.

Add in the saber-rattling and the obnoxious attitude towards diplomacy, and they can make it last a while as long as they don't cross the line. Where that line may be right now... I don't know.

The line is doing something that seriously compromises Chinese National Security/Sphere of influence (or is perceived by the Chinese as doing so). At that point I think China would solve that problem themselves since I get the impression that the Chinese-North Korean border is set up to keep North Koreans in, not the Chinese out. And North Korea is so focused on the DMZ (and that's likely where most of their troops are stationed near) and an amphibious assault along their coasts, that China would, for lack of a better term, charge directly in and fuck them right in the ass. That may (you really can't be sure, we all remember (or should) Saddam Hussein's setting Kuwait's oil fields on fire and pouring crude oil into the Persian Gulf and he wasn't nearly as unpredictable and possibly a bit loony like Fatty Kim) prevent the total demolition of Seoul.

That said, I don't think a peaceful situation can't emerge, we just have to do some unsavory things with some very shitty people. But we'd need Chinese permission to do so. And I get that China doesn't want a unified Korea with American bases near their border and shit, I don't blame them. We just need to find a way to make it in China's best interest to get rid of the current Kim, and maybe find one who wants his people to prosper and doesn't want to be worshipped as a God-King along with some military officers, preferably Generals, who can put that Kim in place while disposing of Fatty Kim.

I heard that large wood chippers with a large arc are a good tool for "naturally" fertilizing lawns, gardens, and even used up fields if rotting fruits, vegetables, fish, meats, and their byproducts are thrown in. Maybe Fatty Kim can be put to work fertilizing fallow fields once he's deposed. Unless he accepts exile.

[Ralin]

I suspect North Korea has made it as far as it had more or less by virtue of the government/military physically strong-arming the country through periods of privation even more extreme than the norm.

A government and military made up of people who were/are for the most part only marginally better off than the rest of the country. And who probably had relatives who were starving during the famines. Kim il-Sung wasn't controlling his soldiers via psychic powers. Whatever else you can say about their system, it's strong and stable enough to make it through circumstances that would make most countries fall apart.

We just need to find a way to make it in China's best interest to get rid of the current Kim, and maybe find one who wants his people to prosper and doesn't want to be worshipped as a God-King along with some military officers, preferably Generals, who can put that Kim in place while disposing of Fatty Kim.

If they can't work with the guy who went to school in Switzerland and is BFFs with Dennis Rodman I kinda doubt there's a a potential Deng Xiaoping waiting in the wings among the DPRK's military leadership.

[Flagg]

I suspect North Korea has made it as far as it had more or less by virtue of the government/military physically strong-arming the country through periods of privation even more extreme than the norm.

A government and military made up of people who were/are for the most part only marginally better off than the rest of the country. And who probably had relatives who were starving during the famines. Kim il-Sung wasn't controlling his soldiers via psychic powers. Whatever else you can say about their system, it's strong and stable enough to make it through circumstances that would make most countries fall apart.

We just need to find a way to make it in China's best interest to get rid of the current Kim, and maybe find one who wants his people to prosper and doesn't want to be worshipped as a God-King along with some military officers, preferably Generals, who can put that Kim in place while disposing of Fatty Kim.

If they can't work with the guy who went to school in Switzerland and is BFFs with Dennis Rodman I kinda doubt there's a a potential Deng Xiaoping waiting in the wings among the DPRK's military leadership.

Yeah, but I doubt most people who are educated in Switzerland go home and when put in power as head of state start summarily executions of family members, girlfriends, and anyone who doesn't at least pretend to fall into hysterical devotion at the mention of his name. Or even worse, have a haircut that is not one of the few allowed, which Fatty Kim ignores since he has the worst haircut outside 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Or Mara Lago.

And Dennis Rodman boned Madonna, so we know he's damaged, that poor dumb bastard...

I was suggesting installing one of Fatty Kim's siblings be placed in charge with the mandate that they put in place policies that make the welfare of the people (which includes everything from agriculture to infrastructure) the top priority and take small steps towards opening up the borders, even if just so families can be reunited. The reason I say "small steps" is so you don't have a mass exodus of the people with the most skills that can benefit citizens of North Korea, like doctors. Once those people have a reason to stay they should be able to decide if they want to or not. That's not really fair to them, but the last think NK would need in that situation is a "brain drain".

[The Romulan Republic]

But there's always the fear of China or Russia not being on the same page as us, and a misunderstanding resulting in a much larger war. And there's the fact that I wouldn't trust the corrupt chaos which is the Trump Administration with anything, much less waging what would probably be our largest war since WWII.

There would be no misunderstanding. China would consider an attack on North Korea by the US wiTh the intention of deposing the Kim regime an act of war, or at least aggression, against China. If anybody is deposing Kim, it's China. And you can bet your left nut that if they were to do so, he'd be replaced with a more reliable Chinese puppet and that the refugee flow would be due south.

So in short, if Trump does what he appears to be threatening to do, its global nuclear war?

But that's not going to happen. The absolute BEST we can hope for is Kim agreeing to some kind of constitutional monarchy arrangement due to sanctions, on the condition of total immunity for him and any supporters. Even that seems unlikely. More likely status quo with no shots ever actually being fired.

One can only hope.

Well, not the status quo part. The "solution that doesn't involve millions of dead" part.

You're asking me to prove that Kim Jong Un is a brutal, mass-murdering despot?

I mean, I guess I should back up my arguments with evidence. But its kind of like being asked to prove that the Sun rises in the East every morning.

No dummy, I'm asking if you have evidence that the Koreans (on either side of the border) would prefer war over the current situation. Because I've never heard of anything resembling an attempted rebellion in the DPRK, even among the military. If they genuinely felt rolling the dice on regime change was worth it don't you think that would have happened back when there was mass cannibalism and shit happening?

I don't know if there's any way to know what the average North Korean thinks for sure, given how isolated and controlled a society it is. Though I have often wonder how the average South Korean feels about the possibility of being sacrificed for the sake of Trump's posturing.

As to why they haven't revolted... you could ask the same of every other dictatorship in history, but there are a lot of reasons. Fear is an obvious one. Indoctrination is another. "Its hard to organize a revolt when I don't know who to trust and I'm barely getting enough to eat (if I'm lucky)" is probably another one.

I expect the people best placed to overthrow Kim (his generals) are mostly happy to let the Fat One stay in power as long as their lifestyle is maintained, and the ones who aren't probably get purged.

I wouldn't describe most of what the DPRK has done as 'playing chicken.' They've done shit that would kick off a war elsewhere, but in this case their saber-rattling and occasional sinking of a ship or ax murder is a known Thing That Happens.

Which is all kinds of fucked up when you think about it, that this one country has a "get out of committing acts of war free" card.

Again, you're ascribing instability to a state that held it together through a nation-wide eating grass-level famine. I see zero reason to think that North Korea 'blowing up' is an inevitability, or even especially likely.

Not an inevitability, no, but certainly a possibility.

I hope it doesn't happen, but honestly, the fact that something has survived being systemically dysfunctional for a while does not make me inclined to think "No problem". It makes me inclined to think that our luck's about due to run out. But maybe that's just me being cynical.

[Broomstick]

That suggests, fairly strongly, to me that when famine and whatnot kicks in? The peons get the shaft, hard, while all that juicy foreign aid goes to the soldiers and the bureaucrats.

Speculation completely unnecessary. North Korea makes no secret of putting the military first and made it very clear during the 1990's that any donated food aid would go to the military first, then the government/upper elite, then the next tier down, and so on. Yes, the peons get the shaft, get it hard, and this is stated up front and center. Not only is it not hidden they're practically proud of it.

All my life I've been hearing that the North Korean economy was going to implode. It's been how many years? Maybe folks should consider that it might not implode.

It HAS imploded. People are barely above starving and that is after a famine which killed millions. You don't get much more imploded than everybody starving. What we're seeing is that the right mix of propaganda, public fear, and support from self-interested neighbors can sustain a regime even through such economic hardship.

Currently, most North Koreans are not actually starving (though no one knows what the fuck is happening inside the prison camps) although they have less to eat and less variety to eat than those of us in more modern nations. The physical stunting in young adults is an artifact of the 1900's famine.

Which is not to say it's all OK, they certainly do live in a more precarious situation than we do, but it's hyperbole to call them "starving" at this point in time. It's never been as bad as the 1990's again in large part because the government now has a way to fit external aid into the political narrative (it's "tribute") and donors are resigned to having to give enough to feed the army first then more on top to reach the common people.

North Korea has an economy? It's so poor that I've heard stories about how you never hear birds chirping or see them flying around because people have to catch and eat them to survive. I've heard stories from less reputable sources that in addition to whatever meager amount of food the people do get, they literally will eat dirt just so their stomachs are full and the hunger pain is lessened.

Again, that's the 1990's situation being conflated with the present day. It's not that it couldn't happen again, but it's not that dire right now. Except maybe there are pockets of that sort of thing, there's no way to know what's going on everywhere in that country.

One reason the government did start accepting foreign aid was probably fears of a rebellion by the military if it starved.

You have to keep in mind that while the North Koreans are just as smart, creative, and inventive as anyone else they start from a different premise than we do on a lot of things. Due to their insulated society and from-birth propaganda that everywhere else is worse off than they are there is less incentive to overturn the government. If their situation is the best in all the world what would they gain by rebellion? They are taught that keeping the military fed, clothed, and cared for before all the rest of society is the correct and right thing. And so on.

[Flagg]

Again, you're ascribing instability to a state that held it together through a nation-wide eating grass-level famine. I see zero reason to think that North Korea 'blowing up' is an inevitability, or even especially likely.

I think there is a general idea held by a lot of people in the west that economic instability and lack of adequate food production to feed the population goes hand in hand with political instability. The history of the 20th century proved this idea to be mistaken. The USSR and Maoist China went through cannibalism causing famines and came out of it stronger than ever.

[ray245]

I think there is a general idea held by a lot of people in the west that economic instability and lack of adequate food production to feed the population goes hand in hand with political instability. The history of the 20th century proved this idea to be mistaken. The USSR and Maoist China went through cannibalism causing famines and came out of it stronger than ever.

Those famines in China very much delayed China's economic development for a considerable amount of years, to say the least.

[Ralin]

Yeah, but I doubt most people who are educated in Switzerland go home and when put in power as head of state start summarily executions of family members, girlfriends, and anyone who doesn't at least pretend to fall into hysterical devotion at the mention of his name.

Yeah, but for the head of the DPRK that's Tuesday. I don't know that much about the various factions in the North Korean government, but is it really a stretch to assume that's the basic stuff required to assert his authority in that sort of environment? We still don't really know for sure how well it worked either, near as I can tell.

I was suggesting installing one of Fatty Kim's siblings be placed in charge with the mandate that they put in place policies that make the welfare of the people (which includes everything from agriculture to infrastructure) the top priority and take small steps towards opening up the borders, even if just so families can be reunited.

I think you're severely over-estimating China's ability to do this, either alone or in cooperation with the US.

[ray245]

Yeah, but I doubt most people who are educated in Switzerland go home and when put in power as head of state start summarily executions of family members, girlfriends, and anyone who doesn't at least pretend to fall into hysterical devotion at the mention of his name. Or even worse, have a haircut that is not one of the few allowed, which Fatty Kim ignores since he has the worst haircut outside 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Or Mara Lago.

And Dennis Rodman boned Madonna, so we know he's damaged, that poor dumb bastard...

I was suggesting installing one of Fatty Kim's siblings be placed in charge with the mandate that they put in place policies that make the welfare of the people (which includes everything from agriculture to infrastructure) the top priority and take small steps towards opening up the borders, even if just so families can be reunited. The reason I say "small steps" is so you don't have a mass exodus of the people with the most skills that can benefit citizens of North Korea, like doctors. Once those people have a reason to stay they should be able to decide if they want to or not. That's not really fair to them, but the last think NK would need in that situation is a "brain drain".

I'm not sure if you have followed the news about North Korea, but one of his elder brothers was assassinated at the Malaysia international airport. The more pro-China/pro-reform factions such as his uncle were killed by artillery.

Any hope of the reform faction taking back control is quite low.

[Flagg]

I think there is a general idea held by a lot of people in the west that economic instability and lack of adequate food production to feed the population goes hand in hand with political instability. The history of the 20th century proved this idea to be mistaken. The USSR and Maoist China went through cannibalism causing famines and came out of it stronger than ever.

Those famines in China very much delayed China's economic development for a considerable amount of years, to say the least.

Yeah, but my point was that those in power at the time stayed in power. And it wasn't the end of The People's Republic of China or of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, and it wasn't the end of North Korea, and almost certainly won't be were it to happen again.

[Flagg]

Yeah, but I doubt most people who are educated in Switzerland go home and when put in power as head of state start summarily executions of family members, girlfriends, and anyone who doesn't at least pretend to fall into hysterical devotion at the mention of his name.

Yeah, but for the head of the DPRK that's Tuesday. I don't know that much about the various factions in the North Korean government, but is it really a stretch to assume that's the basic stuff required to assert his authority in that sort of environment? We still don't really know for sure how well it worked either, near as I can tell.

I was suggesting installing one of Fatty Kim's siblings be placed in charge with the mandate that they put in place policies that make the welfare of the people (which includes everything from agriculture to infrastructure) the top priority and take small steps towards opening up the borders, even if just so families can be reunited.

I think you're severely over-estimating China's ability to do this, either alone or in cooperation with the US.

Yeah, but I doubt most people who are educated in Switzerland go home and when put in power as head of state start summarily executions of family members, girlfriends, and anyone who doesn't at least pretend to fall into hysterical devotion at the mention of his name. Or even worse, have a haircut that is not one of the few allowed, which Fatty Kim ignores since he has the worst haircut outside 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Or Mara Lago.

And Dennis Rodman boned Madonna, so we know he's damaged, that poor dumb bastard...

I was suggesting installing one of Fatty Kim's siblings be placed in charge with the mandate that they put in place policies that make the welfare of the people (which includes everything from agriculture to infrastructure) the top priority and take small steps towards opening up the borders, even if just so families can be reunited. The reason I say "small steps" is so you don't have a mass exodus of the people with the most skills that can benefit citizens of North Korea, like doctors. Once those people have a reason to stay they should be able to decide if they want to or not. That's not really fair to them, but the last think NK would need in that situation is a "brain drain".

I'm not sure if you have followed the news about North Korea, but one of his elder brothers was assassinated at the Malaysia international airport. The more pro-China/pro-reform factions such as his uncle were killed by artillery.

Any hope of the reform faction taking back control is quite low.

Oh yeah, this was coming from the land of magical unicorns, rainbows, and marshmallow clouds. I think Willy Wonka (Wilder, not Depp) was there.

I'm under no illusion that what I posited is the longest of long shots, but can't I be the optimist for once?

[FireNexus]

Dunno which thread this goes in... but.... "fire and fury". I'm fucking scared.

[MKSheppard]

Norkland has now apparently begun smacktalking about guam.