Trouble in South Ossetia escalates

[The Duchess of Zeon]

Would Russia be crazy enough to start shit with Turkey too?

In case it escalates, Valdemar. Before that, surely not. I trust Stavka a lot more than the Pentagon at the moment in terms of keeping that from happening.

[Broomstick]

OH SHIT THE SIRENS ARE GOING OFF HERE IN SILVER SPR.......

Oh wait. That was my imagination.

You're deaf, Shep - how the hell would you hear sirens anyhow? (Or maybe you're just really hard of hearing....?)

Seriously, you guys are hysterically hyperventilating a simple airlift -- which we've done into combat zones before -- do I have to point out to you guys Operation NICKEL GRASS in 1973?

Secondly, it's really simple to call the Russians and say "Oh hi there, we're going to be flying in ten C-17 sorties to such and such airport in the southern part of Georgia. They'll be flashing such and such IFF codes."

Yes, we've done airlifts into combat zones before. That doesn't mean they aren't risky.

As I said, I believe the Russians are smart enough to figure this out and I expect (because I'm optimistic) it will go off without a hitch but one downed airplane and things could get worse.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

OH SHIT THE SIRENS ARE GOING OFF HERE IN SILVER SPR.......

Oh wait. That was my imagination.

Seriously, you guys are hysterically hyperventilating a simple airlift -- which we've done into combat zones before -- do I have to point out to you guys Operation NICKEL GRASS in 1973?

The Red Army was not attacking Israel, Shep, and Red frontal aviation wasn't bombing targets in Israel, and the Red Navy wasn't blockading Israel, etc.

Secondly, it's really simple to call the Russians and say "Oh hi there, we're going to be flying in ten C-17 sorties to such and such airport in the southern part of Georgia. They'll be flashing such and such IFF codes."

As will almost certainly happen. The chance for a mistake, though, is much to high. And what do we owe the Georgians for being such dumbfucks? We should have just offered the Turks some more weapons in exchange for letting us offload the Georgians in Erzurum and take a few sealed trains across the border to avoid the risk.

[Coyote]

Why are some of us considering worst-case scenarios?

How about...

...because the fucknut in charge of the US is, well, a fucknut? Who has no sense of responsibility, and is like a drunken frat boy who found a gun?

You're right, Shep, things like this have happened before. But there was no W. Bush at the helm. Someone else calling the shots and I might not be so concerned.

[Lonestar]

You misunderstood me. I asked for examples of NATO acting without the help of US. Obviously US can act without the help of NATO but not the other way around. Not in any kind of serious military confrontation.

Sierra Leone. Ivory Coast. Lebanon.

[MKSheppard]

You're deaf, Shep - how the hell would you hear sirens anyhow? (Or maybe you're just really hard of hearing....?)

138 db at 100 ft = you can feel the sirens. And of course, I do have a cochlear implant.

[Darth Wong]

Before we all go nuts on another "Bush is evil, he wants soldiers to die for political points, cue up the Imperial March" oneupsmanship circle jerk that adds nothing to the conversation, I'd like to point out that the terms of our agreement with Georgia for their help in Iraq requires us to return them there.

Nobody is necessarily saying that Bush wants American soldiers to die. He does, however, see benefits in resuming the Cold War hostilities that made Reagan such a revered figure. This is a man who prides himself on being a "war president", remember? And none of the actions we're talking about are conspiracy-theory secret nonsense; they are all well-documented public actions he's taken, things he's said, etc.

[Broomstick]

You're deaf, Shep - how the hell would you hear sirens anyhow? (Or maybe you're just really hard of hearing....?)

138 db at 100 ft = you can feel the sirens.

Good point, I forgot about that, silly hearing person than I am.

And of course, I do have a cochlear implant.

I did not know that - how's it working out for you?

[Thanas]

In case anyone missed it, here are the comparative strenghts of the armed forces of Russia and Georgia:

Army: 395.000 / 17767
Air Force: 160.000 / 1310
Tanks: 23.000 / 128 (significantly less now)
Aircraft: 1736 / 9 (guaranteed to be zero nowadays).
*******************

Those 2000 troops the USA is airlifting in are about 1/8 of their entire army. No wonder Georgia wants them there - they are literally their reserve.

Also, in other news, german news media reports that russian forces have crossed into Georgia Proper.

[Bounty]

Also, in other news, german news media reports that russian forces have crossed into Georgia Proper.

So does the BBC -

Russian troops have entered Georgia from the breakaway region of Abkhazia, as the conflict between the two neighbours appears to be broadening.

Moscow said it had launched a raid on the town of Senaki to stop Georgia from attacking Russian forces in South Ossetia, another breakaway region.

And Georgia says Russian troops have captured the town of Gori in central Georgia - a claim denied by Moscow.

As the fighting continued, foreign envoys were pressing for a ceasefire.

Violence erupted in South Ossetia late last week when Georgia launched an overnight assault on the territory.

Russia, which supports the province's bid for separation, then bombed targets throughout Georgia and moved troops into the region and into Abkhazia.

[Darth Wong]

“But where are our friends?”

America's friendship generally extends only as far as its self-interest. I can't believe people in Georgia were ever naive enough to think otherwise.

[Bounty]

No English link, but the website of my paper reports that Russian troops are heading for Tbilisi.

[CaptainChewbacca]

Just when you thought it couldn't get more interesting, Thousands of Cossacks flock to the Ossetian cause

Hundreds, possibly thousands, of volunteer fighters from Russia were mobilising to enter the war in Georgia's breakaway republic of South Ossetia last night.

Units of armed Cossacks from across the North Caucasus region which borders Georgia were poised to join the battle for the separatists' capital, Tskhinvali.

In North Ossetia, the region of Russia which shares cultural links and a border with South Ossetia, lists of men willing to fight against Georgian forces were drawn up. Vitaly Khubayev, 35, from the capital, Vladikavkaz, told the Guardian: "There are already two busloads of fighters leaving for Tskhinvali every day. They give you a uniform on the way and you get issued with weapons once you arrive. If I didn't have three children I'd have gone."

The two Ossetias are historically inseparable and residents of the northern republic were furious yesterday at what they described as the "Georgian fascist attack" on their neighbours.

Many said they were willing to take up arms and travel to defend their relatives across the border in South Ossetia. Valentin Tekhti, 67, a teacher, said: "Our Ossetian brothers are dying. If we get the call, every man who can stand on two legs will go to fight."

Amiran Khubetsov, a doctor, said: "A nation is under bombardment in the land it has occupied for hundreds of years. The world must not ignore this aggression."

At a special meeting of the UN security council yesterday morning, the United States called on the Kremlin to prevent irregulars entering South Ossetia via the 4km Roki tunnel, the republic's only link with Russia. But at a meeting with the US president, George Bush, in Bejing, the Russian prime minister, Vladimir Putin, admitted "many volunteers" were heading to South Ossetia and it would be "very hard to maintain peace".

Under Russia law, Cossacks - the descendants of runaway serfs and outlaws who in the past were employed to protect the country's southern border - are allowed to carry arms and carry out policing functions in cooperation with interior ministry forces.

At the headquarters of the Terek Cossacks in Vladikavkaz yesterday a group of men sat under portraits of fierce looking warriors with drooping moustaches watching television coverage of Georgian artillery shelling Tskhinvali. One man said there would be a meeting today to discuss forming volunteer units.

In Volgograd the leader of the Don Cossacks, Viktor Vodolatsky, called on all Cossacks under 40 to volunteer. Reports said 100 men from the region had already left for Tskhinvali. "We must help our South Ossetian brothers," he said.

Irregular troops from the north Caucasus played an important role in the conflicts that saw both Georgia's breakaway regions, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, secede in the early 1990s.

In Abkhazia, Cossack and Chechen units fought side by side against Georgian troops, despite being historical enemies. Abkhazia has promised to help South Ossetia in its conflict with Georgia.

Ossetians in Vladikavkaz yesterday said they were hoping for a decisive strike by the Russian army to drive Georgia's forces out of South Ossetia. There were emotional scenes in the city, as hundreds of protesters, mostly women, gathered outside the regional government headquarters and shouted, "Russia, save us!"

Aelita Dzhioyeva, 41, a lawyer who fled Tskhinvali on Thursday evening, showed text messages on her mobile phone from relatives still sheltering in a basement in the city. One message read: "We are dying. Ask the government for help."

Dzhioyeva said: "Our men will stay and fight until the last drop of blood, but our old people and children must be saved. We are calling on the Kremlin to intervene and create a humanitarian corridor for them to escape."

Shota Kochiev, 60, said: "This is America's doing. They are supporting Georgia's mad lust for new land - our land."

About 2,000 refugees from South Ossetia, mostly women and children, have so far been bussed to Russia and are staying in hotels around Vladikavkaz.

War is terrible, horrible and to be avoided at all costs. But god DAMN I love cossacks.

[Bounty]

There were rumblings from the Cossacks over the weekend. I don't think it's entirely unexpected.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

No English link, but the website of my paper reports that Russian troops are heading for Tbilisi.

Gori is on a crossroads going for both sides of the country and south, as well as north to Tskhanvali. If they wish to outflank the defenders of Gori, they might well veer toward the east to encircle it. I doubt they have any intention of actually entering Tblisi; encircling and capturing Gori and then destroying the Georgian troops arriving from Iraq, since they will be thrown into a last-ditch attack to retake Gori, will be sufficient, along with cleansing the Republic of Abkhazia of Georgian occupiers, which is well underway if the Georgian troops there have been encircled and left only with a highway of death on which to escape.

[Admiral Valdemar]

Georgia conflict stokes energy supply concerns.

[Darth Wong]

It's actually kind of funny looking at news reports from last week, like this one. The Russians haven't attacked yet, so Georgia is rejecting Russian calls to immediately halt all violence. But now that the Georgians are getting their asses kicked, they have suddenly discovered the virtue of public calls for non-violent solutions!

[Dartzap]

C4N also reporting the advance on the capital, although they had the Russian DPM on to deny it.

[hongi]

C4N also reporting the advance on the capital, although they had the Russian DPM on to deny it.

So if true, is Russia looking to depose the Georgian government?

[Pelranius]

Chechens and the Cossacks together?

Now I've seen everything.

[Admiral Valdemar]

As I expected, Russia is likely going to devastate what force Georgia can muster, then take control or at least pull back and play the game slowly in trying to annex Georgia again.

They aren't happy about that pipeline not being in their control.

[Bounty]

Gori has fallen - Times Online

Russian forces overran the strategic Georgian city of Gori today as troops prepared to defend the capital Tbilisi from what one official called a "total onslaught".

Georgian soldiers fled Gori, 17 miles from the border with rebel South Ossetia, in panic and disarray, clinging to the sides of cars and vehicles as they sped out of town. A Georgian armoured personnel carrier was in flames on the street, a victim of the sudden rout.

Alexander Lomaia, secretary of the Georgian security council, said that the Georgian army had been told instead to concentrate its efforts on holding Mtskheta, 15 miles from the capital.

"Russian forces are occupying Gori. Georgian armed forces received an order to leave Gori and to fortify positions near Mtskheta to defend the capital. This is a total onslaught," Mr Lomaia said.

Endgame for Georgia?

[The Duchess of Zeon]

Well, that's the end of the road for the colour revolutions.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

I do have to admit whomever caught this shot of Russian troops advancing under the old Red Banner managed a brilliant piece of propaganda work. It also more or else neatly sums up how the conflict is going now.

[Darth Wong]

Endgame for Georgia?

It's just Russia "re-establishing control over the breakaway province" of Georgia. Hey, language that's good for the goose should be good for the gander

It's funny how everyone in the media describes South Ossetia as a "breakaway province" of Georgia, but they never mention the irony of how Georgia itself is a former "breakaway province" of Russia.