COVID-19 ongoing thread part 2

[Elfdart]

Trump's Twitter feed just posted that he and his wife have contracted the disease.

LINK

If this was anyone but Trump, I'd say good grief. But since it IS Trump, I wouldn't put it past him to be lying about this, just as he lies about everything else. What better way to change the subject from the fact that two nights ago, he called for armed thugs to prowl the voting booths, and told the Proud Boys and other Blackshirt wannabes to "stand by"? *



* The fascist version of "Avengers... ASSEMBLE!"

[bilateralrope]

I was seeing a lot of articles saying that Hope Hicks was infected a few hours ago. So Trump being infected is plausible.

I wonder if he's going to try and demonstrate his strength by trying to have the next debate over the internet.

[Elfdart]

If he really does have it, so much for any campaigning -though he could get a lot of sympathy votes.

When I predicted, almost four years ago, that Trump was going to be like Warren Harding, only with none of the good things, I wasn't predicting that he might croak before finishing a single term.

[bilateralrope]

Trump dying before the election is a scenario that really worries me. I have no idea what will follow.

[Eulogy]

And if he is lying about getting covid, he could either be trying to get out of the debates entirely (not very likely, given his pathological need to bully others), or downplay the virus as nothing to be worried about. "I got covid, and look at me, I'm fine!"

[Ace Pace]

If he really does have it, so much for any campaigning -though he could get a lot of sympathy votes.

When I predicted, almost four years ago, that Trump was going to be like Warren Harding, only with none of the good things, I wasn't predicting that he might croak before finishing a single term.

Lets all calm down. The fatality rate is less than 10%. Even if Trump is crazy sick (and he is), he has decent odds. Also he got checked out early on and he has a very strong medical team.

He's not leaving the White House in a casket because of corona.

[bilateralrope]

If he's lying about having it, that will probably leak out before the election.

Plus taking this virus seriously means believing anyone who claims they have it unless you have evidence that they are lying.

[Ralin]

I wonder if they gave him the nose swab test?

[bilateralrope]

I hope so. And I hope it was scraped around in there, to make sure it got a good swab.

Yes, I know exactly how uncomfortable that can get.

[bilateralrope]

What will happen to the US if Donald Trump gets too sick to be President

Donald Trump's positive COVID-19 test has thrown the US into turmoil.

The President was scheduled to appear at multiple rallies and debates in the lead-up to the election on November 3 - all of which will now need to be put on hold.

But who will lead the country if Trump falls seriously ill, especially so close to the election?

Trump's physician has issued a notice saying the President will carry on with all his duties as he recovers - however COVID-19 is unpredictable, as the world saw when UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson was put in intensive care in April.

Should Trump fall seriously ill, then it follows that Vice-President Michael Pence would take over his role.

But seeing as Trump's positive result is likely linked to that of two prominent White House aides - one of whom was Pence's valet - contracting the virus, it is not unthinkable that Pence would also fall ill.

If this happens - the US could face a constitutional crisis.

The law provides little clarity on such a scenario. Article II of the Constitution lets Congress "provide for the Case of ... Inability, both of the President and Vice President, declaring what Officer shall then act as President, and such Officer shall act accordingly, until the Disability be removed."

That law still stands, and it puts the Speaker of the House first in line. By this law, Nancy Pelosi would lead the country.

But Article II does not provide any way of determining "inability" - so if Pelosi, believing Trump and Pence are too sick to fulfill the duties, declared herself acting President and either man contested it, the White House would be hurled into uncertainty and the new acting president would struggle for legitimacy.

Courts could settle the matter, but time would be of the essence as it would leave a power vacuum at a time when the US is suffering civil unrest.

The poor handling of the COVID-19 crisis, coupled with large-scale protests over systemic racial inequality sparked by the deaths of African-American citizens at at the hands of white police means the country is akin to a tinder-dry forest - and a presidential contest could be the spark to set it alight.

On top of this, if Pelosi was to take over, she would need to resign from her position as Speaker because of the Constitution's obscure incompatibility clause, which says that "no Person holding any Office under the United States shall be a Member of either House during his Continuance in Office."

All in all, it would be a confusing change to navigate - and Congress, not known for it's swift dealings, would need to handle it quickly.

But this is all hypotheticals - as it stands, Trump and his wife Melania have tested positive but Pence is still clear.

Now, all the White House can do is ensure staff are washing their hands and wearing their masks as they wait to see what unfolds.

Sounds like if Pence and Trump get sick enough, that could delay the Supreme Court nomination until past inauguration day.

[Broomstick]

I don't think Trump is lying about covid because...
- Trump has long boasted he never gets sick. Sickness is a sign of weakness and he will not willingly look weak
- Being in quarantine means no live rallies, which to Trump is like a drug fix. What addict willingly goes two weeks without a fix?

While on a certain level it couldn't happen to a "nicer" guy, Trump getting seriously ill at this point or, worse yet, dying, would be a destabilizing event in a nation already pretty fucked up. The issues with the chain of succession have already been addressed in this thread. The prospect of President Pence is not one I feel good or optimistic about.

[Mr Bean]

The most interesting scenario but most ghoulish is that Trump and Pence both catch the disease,win re-election but then both pass on after November 4th. In that case it would be Speaker Pelosi would be president and depending on when they die the 12th Amendment says the House of Representatives must elect the president from among the three candidates with the most votes. Or at least per a how stuff works article I found stated.

Note this assumes post election results certification, pre-election results the winning party can simply vote to replace someone as President/Vice President candidate.

[bilateralrope]

How long before the Covid deniers turn against Trump ?

[Captain Seafort]

The most interesting scenario but most ghoulish is that Trump and Pence both catch the disease,win re-election but then both pass on after November 4th. In that case it would be Speaker Pelosi would be president and depending on when they die the 12th Amendment says the House of Representatives must elect the president from among the three candidates with the most votes. Or at least per a how stuff works article I found stated.

"Interesting" indeed.

The most effective way to turn this year into even more of a shitstorm than its already been would be if they both come down with the lurgie, win by a landslide thanks to a sympathy vote, and then both die. Result: indisputable vote for a Republican president and Nancy Pelosi in the White House. If that happens I would be enormously grateful for the fact that I've got the Atlantic as something of a buffer between me and all hell breaking loose.

[Broomstick]

... and people laugh at me for the amount of food and household goods I have in serves as an "Armageddon stash"....

I'm already anticipating supply line disruptions through spring, political chaos would only add to the mess. We're heading into unprecedented territory, we live in "interesting times" indeed.

[madd0ct0r]

The most interesting scenario but most ghoulish is that Trump and Pence both catch the disease,win re-election but then both pass on after November 4th. In that case it would be Speaker Pelosi would be president and depending on when they die the 12th Amendment says the House of Representatives must elect the president from among the three candidates with the most votes. Or at least per a how stuff works article I found stated.

"Interesting" indeed.

The most effective way to turn this year into even more of a shitstorm than its already been would be if they both come down with the lurgie, win by a landslide thanks to a sympathy vote, and then both die. Result: indisputable vote for a Republican president and Nancy Pelosi in the White House. If that happens I would be enormously grateful for the fact that I've got the Atlantic as something of a buffer between me and all hell breaking loose.

Can the USA do snap elections the way the UK could?

[Vendetta]

The most interesting scenario but most ghoulish is that Trump and Pence both catch the disease,win re-election but then both pass on after November 4th. In that case it would be Speaker Pelosi would be president and depending on when they die the 12th Amendment says the House of Representatives must elect the president from among the three candidates with the most votes. Or at least per a how stuff works article I found stated.

"Interesting" indeed.

The most effective way to turn this year into even more of a shitstorm than its already been would be if they both come down with the lurgie, win by a landslide thanks to a sympathy vote, and then both die. Result: indisputable vote for a Republican president and Nancy Pelosi in the White House. If that happens I would be enormously grateful for the fact that I've got the Atlantic as something of a buffer between me and all hell breaking loose.

AFAIK that will only happen if it happens after they are inaugurated.

If they die after the election but before confirmation by the Electoral College, then the electors will be able to pick a candidate put forward by the Republican party. Remember that the Electors are not actually bound to pick the person on the ballots.

[Captain Seafort]

Can the USA do snap elections the way the UK could?

I'm not sure, but I don't think so - the impression I get of their entire system is that it's designed to break rather than bend.

AFAIK that will only happen if it happens after they are inaugurated.

If they die after the election but before confirmation by the Electoral College, then the electors will be able to pick a candidate put forward by the Republican party. Remember that the Electors are not actually bound to pick the person on the ballots.

To clarify, when I referred to a "win by a landslide", I was assuming the entire process was complete - i.e. between the EC vote and the inauguration.

[Mr Bean]

If they die after the election but before confirmation by the Electoral College, then the electors will be able to pick a candidate put forward by the Republican party. Remember that the Electors are not actually bound to pick the person on the ballots.

Correction some electors are bound by laws, the Supreme Court ruled in July of this year that Faithless Elector laws are constitutional. Funny enough most of those laws don't specify a punishment and one could argue from sedition on down.

[Elfdart]

I don't think Trump is lying about covid because...
- Trump has long boasted he never gets sick. Sickness is a sign of weakness and he will not willingly look weak
- Being in quarantine means no live rallies, which to Trump is like a drug fix. What addict willingly goes two weeks without a fix?

While on a certain level it couldn't happen to a "nicer" guy, Trump getting seriously ill at this point or, worse yet, dying, would be a destabilizing event in a nation already pretty fucked up. The issues with the chain of succession have already been addressed in this thread. The prospect of President Pence is not one I feel good or optimistic about.

This is the guy who claimed he had a bone spur bad enough to have surgery just to avoid Vietnam. He also claims he can't remember which foot had the spurs. I had spurs removed fourteen years ago and the pain of having part of the bone in your heel hacked away, the stitches, and the six weeks of physical therapy, the one thing I could never forget is that it was my right foot.

[FireNexus]

Trump isn’t lying. The hemming and hawing about how the rules changes were unfair were obviously an attempt by the admin to keep a lid on this when he couldn’t attend the debate.

Also, given the news this morning about senators starting to drop, we now live in a world with a no zero chance of the White House and senate flipping before Election Day. Do you know how funny it would be if Nancy Pelosi got to fill RBG’s seat? We’re not that lucky, but the world is a work of fiction.

[Ralin]

This is the guy who claimed he had a bone spur bad enough to have surgery just to avoid Vietnam. He also claims he can't remember which foot had the spurs. I had spurs removed fourteen years ago and the pain of having part of the bone in your heel hacked away, the stitches, and the six weeks of physical therapy, the one thing I could never forget is that it was my right foot.

'just'

Anyway, I'm not saying that Pence deliberately had Trump infected to seize the reins during the last month of the election and maybe, just maybe, pull off a full blown coup...but it's more likely than Trump faking Covid.

[Solauren]

If Pence was smart enough to get Trump sick, he'd have waited until after the election. Let Trump do all the work, and use his fame, then take power.

[Ralin]

If Pence was smart enough to get Trump sick, he'd have waited until after the election. Let Trump do all the work, and use his fame, then take power.

Well, theoretically, just spitballing here, the idea would be to try and combine Trump's hardcore supporters with the center right people who are disgusted/embarrassed enough by Trump's bullshit to stay home/vote for Biden but would still happily vote for Dubya 2.0.

Would that work? I dunno. Pence isn't often accused of being smart. But I think it's more likely than Trump willingly putting himself through the embarrassment of admitting he came down with Covid-19.

[FireNexus]

Trump is being airlifted to Walter Reed and the gave him a shot of experimental polyclonal antibodies. Mike Pence might well become the 46th President very soon.