Broomstick wrote:While emancipating all the southern slaves at once would have been disruptive, it would be unlikely to cause a collapse. The freed slaves, after all, would still have to work for a living and labor and skilled trades would be needed (not all slaves were field hands - quite a few were bricklayers, carpenters, and other skilled tradesmen) so presumably money would exchange hands. Profits on the plantations would drop, which would cause pain at the top levels of society. Blacks would probably be grossly underpaid relative to whites. In other words, not too different from what happened after the war was over, with blacks winding up doing much the same work they did before, but as employees rather than slaves, and without the widespread destruction caused by the war.
It's more complex than that. Each slave represented an
asset on the balance sheet of his/her owner, in much the same way that a piece of real estate represents an asset on the balance sheet of a homeowner. In many cases, these homeowners would have borrowed money to finance the purchase of these slaves: money that many of them owed to northern banks (another reason for wanting to secede).
Outlawing slavery would have caused an enormous amount of paper wealth to vanish overnight, with results similar to a massive housing market collapse (and I'm not talking about values dropping by a third; I'm talking about values dropping to
zero, across the board). You could still pay those people for their services, but their value as
assets would disappear, even though the debts incurred to purchase them in the first place would not.
Basically, by formalizing and commercializing the practice of slavery to a level that had not been seen before, the South structured its economy in such a way that it would be devastated by the loss of slavery.
Of course, this would only apply to the 10% of the population which actually owned slaves, but that happened to be the most powerful, wealthy, and influential 10%, and it's as certain as death and taxes that they would have spread the pain around.