Discussion of Russian economics (split from TSW)

[K. A. Pital]

So the question comes down to removing the corrupted class whole-sale

You understand, of course, that this cannot be accomplished without a change of power?

Perhaps the answer then is quite simple? Allow the gestation and growth of a middle class in Russia to contribute to a better government?

Perhaps you have not been paying attention to the part where I explained that the current power is not interested in supplying the Russian populace with a good living standard. In fact, the current power constantly pressures the Russian living standard downwards - if not in wages, that failed in the 1990s and put the nation on the brink of a real power collapse - then in all other services that contributed to the prior life standard of the Russian citizen. A large middle-class or a well-off worker class is totally not in the interests of the current Russian regime. The higher end of the worker class that existed in the Soviet times and early years of the transition (well-off engineers, teachers, highly educated workers and doctors) were actually pauperized and remain in this position to a large degree.

So Mag-Lev Trains, MRI Scanners, Atom Smashers, among other things is "No Market"?

Actually, no - you can't feed 140 million people with that small a sector. And while you're here, let me tell you a story of a man who worked in a superconductor lab.

That man was my father. His superconductor lab was one of the many such labs in the USSR. After the USSR collapsed - bah, who the fuck needs superconductors, right? - the lab was closed. Instead, a lot of "business" faculties were opened in his University. My father went on to work with computer software.

But the high science he was working with - liquid helium, very complex calculations - was gone. When the lab was destroyed, the lead engineer left for Canada. Others remained in Russia, facing enormous difficulties. The lab was never re-created. All research came to a halt. You're saying we should start using... what scientific base to restore that research? In 20 years, the situation only worsened.

As for the mystical step #2, it's simple really. Build and improve basic industries that will support the underlying infrastructure of advanced material production. (Steel, concrete, refined petrol, agriculture, etc.)

You still don't understand that industries do not build themselves by magic or mystics? Or, what Simon said.

[SilverHawk]

No market on the necessary scale. Scale is important, as with rocketry. An industry that only brings your nation a few billion dollars a year in GDP is not enough to sustain an economy the size of Russia. The superconductor industry simply isn't big business, and won't be for the foreseeable future.

Hasen't China been pressing hard lately for Mag-Lev trains? Or was that Japan? If it's China, Russia could stand to make a lot of money of building and supporting that infrastructre. But yeah, MRI scanners are pretty long term products and Atom Smashers aren't exactly flying off the shelves are they?

But that Smart Grid tech looks great, and Russia would be the perfect place to run it through it's paces. (Low population number, relatively stable power draw.)

Moreover, if so, why is it even relevant what they export after completing step 2? They could equally well make semiconductors, or machine tools, or any other product of a modern industrial base. Any idiot can dream up things for Russia to sell after Step 2 is complete. The challenge that is not being met, and the one that takes real effort, is actually carrying out Step 2, especially if we stay within the capitalist model.

Because everybody else is already doing it and Russia needs to get in on the ground floor of a new industrial product that nobody else has really gotten into yet. But yeah, the issue comes down to the basic fact of corruption before actual industry can get started.

And aside all the (very good) reasons Simon has mentioned, there is the fact that most countries prefer their own rocket programs. There is a reason why several would-be (and perhaps is) rocketplane companies are sprouting in the USA: there is a market there, there is infrastructure, there is expertise, etc. High-tech and precision technology is available in the USA (Burt Rutan, IIRC, company also makes a bunch of other experiment planes and other model planes, often out of carbon composites). A very small, but provenly available, market is there of people wanting to go to orbit.

You mean Virgin SpaceShipOne and SpaceShipTwo. Yeah, exciting stuff, but I wasen't talking about Space Tourism. I'm talking about heavy industry, Russia already handles the day to day logistics of ISS AND after the US retires the Space Shuttle, will be the only nation equipped to get astronauts into orbit.

You understand, of course, that this cannot be accomplished without a change of power?

Of course, that goes without saying.

Perhaps you have not been paying attention to the part where I explained that the current power is not interested in supplying the Russian populace with a good living standard. In fact, the current power constantly pressures the Russian living standard downwards - if not in wages, that failed in the 1990s and put the nation on the brink of a real power collapse - then in all other services that contributed to the prior life standard of the Russian citizen. A large middle-class or a well-off worker class is totally not in the interests of the current Russian regime. The higher end of the worker class that existed in the Soviet times and early years of the transition (well-off engineers, teachers, highly educated workers and doctors) were actually pauperized and remain in this position to a large degree.

Knew about the first part, not about the povertization of the intellectual class after the collapse of the USSR. So, like we've all been saying, the current power structure needs to go for the betterment of the people.

Actually, no - you can't feed 140 million people with that small a sector. And while you're here, let me tell you a story of a man who worked in a superconductor lab.

I think you could feed a fair amount if China gets into Mag-Lev all the way.

But the high science he was working with - liquid helium, very complex calculations - was gone. When the lab was destroyed, the lead engineer left for Canada. Others remained in Russia, facing enormous difficulties. The lab was never re-created. All research came to a halt. You're saying we should start using... what scientific base to restore that research? In 20 years, the situation only worsened.

So your suggesting...that we do nothing then? I didn't say it was going to be easy, fast or magical. Boot-strapping industry never is.

You still don't understand that industries do not build themselves by magic or mystics? Or, what Simon said.

I feel a strong sense of Deja Vu washing over me.

[Simon_Jester]

And rightly so. You were wrong when I was telling you you were wrong, and you were still wrong when Stas was telling you you were wrong.

See, the problem is that your proposals are utterly ridiculous as ways for Russia to solve its economic problems. They can barely maintain the space industry they have, let alone build it up into some kind of juggernaut that will launch satellites from... who again?

Ditto for the superconductor industry- they do not have the assets to be competitive. They lost the assets they did have. They can not recreate those assets without first fixing their economy.

In both cases, the idea of Russia using these industries to fix its economies is a farce. They might as well ask for help from Santa Claus. The infrastructure to support those industries isn't there, the government isn't interested in creating it, even if they were they'd face colossal problems, and Russia has NO advantages over its competitors in those areas, and many disadvantages.

It's stupid on almost every possible leve.

[SilverHawk]

And rightly so. You were wrong when I was telling you you were wrong, and you were still wrong when Stas was telling you you were wrong.

See, the problem is that your proposals are utterly ridiculous as ways for Russia to solve its economic problems. They can barely maintain the space industry they have, let alone build it up into some kind of juggernaut that will launch satellites from... who again?

Ditto for the superconductor industry- they do not have the assets to be competitive. They lost the assets they did have. They can not recreate those assets without first fixing their economy.

In both cases, the idea of Russia using these industries to fix its economies is a farce. They might as well ask for help from Santa Claus. The infrastructure to support those industries isn't there, the government isn't interested in creating it, even if they were they'd face colossal problems, and Russia has NO advantages over its competitors in those areas, and many disadvantages.

It's stupid on almost every possible leve.

I think you meant "level"

But let's work backwards here, since everybody seems to be addressing my points in reverse order. (Which is like building a car, starting with the radio.)

The corruption needs to be removed, by a change in power or some other manner. Then basic industry needs to be restablished and the intellectual class has to be paid comparable wages so Russia stops suffering brain drain. After that, Russia needs to get into industries that aren't already dominated by other countries. (Hence, the need to and my selection of, products and services that aren't in great demand at the moment.)

I'm not just throwing shit out there because it amuses me. It's the simple fact that Russia, whenever it manages to address Step #2, WILL NOT be able to break into well established and dominated industries present in the US/Canada and Europe. You don't build a car factory in 2010 and the use it to produce cars from 1975. (That is to say, you don't come late to the party and expect to fair well against those who have been there since the beginning.)

[MKSheppard]

Russia is pretty much screwed. The only growth industry in russia -- military equipment -- is dying for several reasons.

1.) They've only offered warmed over cold war stuff, or stuff that was sort of on the drawing boards when the cold war ended. While it's still advanced, it no longer can command the price it did in 1997, because China is moving up in the arms market and is offering increasingly complex and integrated systems rather than MiG-21 clones or T-62 clones.

2.) Russia has traditionally never been good on spares and supporting it's systems. Basically people bought 'em for two reasons -- cheap and you can get them no matter how much people hate you. The chinese are nibbling away at both reasons -- because Russia is now baiscally upper Volta with nukes -- and can only get what it wants through politics -- it no longer has the military or economic might.

So this means that delivery of your S-300 Super SAM system is no longer assured -- Russia might delay it because of international protests or complaints -- witness Iran.

China on the other hand, doesn't have this problem. Try bitching to China over the sale of their advanced weapons to burma or who knows what; and they will laugh in your face.

[SilverHawk]

Sukhoi seems to be doing decently with exporting massive amounts of Su-30 MK variants to anybody willing to buy them. (They seem to be trying to set themselves up as a Boeing of the East, they just recently broke into the airliner business with their regional Superjet 100.)

[Simon_Jester]

But let's work backwards here, since everybody seems to be addressing my points in reverse order. (Which is like building a car, starting with the radio.)

The corruption needs to be removed, by a change in power or some other manner. Then basic industry needs to be restablished and the intellectual class has to be paid comparable wages so Russia stops suffering brain drain. After that, Russia needs to get into industries that aren't already dominated by other countries. (Hence, the need to and my selection of, products and services that aren't in great demand at the moment.)

Selling a product no one wants in industrial quantities is not a recipe for a favorable balance of trade. Historically, no industrializing power (and that's what Russia is- a nation that has to industrialize all over again, having scrapped their Soviet-legacy base in the rush to capitalism) started out as a revolutionary leader in a new industry. There's a reason for that.

If Russia decides to build a giant-ass superconductor factory, they face the reality that an American company can easily do the same thing, in an environment more attractive to highly educated professionals, with a more stable regulatory regime, and with much greater access to cutting edge industrial technology. How are they supposed to compete on those terms? They'd need to develop an economy functionally identical to America's to compete with America in the high tech sector, and if they can do that they've already won anyway.

I'm not just throwing shit out there because it amuses me. It's the simple fact that Russia, whenever it manages to address Step #2, WILL NOT be able to break into well established and dominated industries present in the US/Canada and Europe. You don't build a car factory in 2010 and the use it to produce cars from 1975. (That is to say, you don't come late to the party and expect to fair well against those who have been there since the beginning.)

And yet this is precisely what every major industrializing power has done. The best examples are East Asia: Japan, Korea, and China. In each case we saw a progression: they went from making simple consumer goods (clothes and toys) to more advanced goods (consumer electronics assembly) to high-tech industry (semiconductor fabricators). Japan has finished this trajectory and has a fully modern economy; South Korea is on the way; China is somewhat behind them.

Russia can't follow this exact path, but if it is to have any success building an industrial base (a prerequisite for being a competitor in the high tech sector), it will have to be capable of manufacturing things like cars. Cars are easier to make than rockets- they talk about "rocket science" and not "car science" for a reason. If Russia cannot make cars that compete on the 2010 market, they will not be able to innovate in fields like rocketry... which means

The only reason Russia has a space industry right now is because rocketry is one sector where the Soviet legacy assets were kept partly intact, for defense purposes. They're not going to be able to move beyond Soviet-vintage technology, or expand their facilities, unless they acquire the ability to compete with first rate industrial powers. At which point they will be perfectly able to build modern cars and modern computers, just as they will be able to build modern rockets and superconductors... in the unlikely event that this actually happens.

Any fantasizing about what marvels of modern science they might export on the world market is meaningless without a credible plan for recovering modern industry.

[SilverHawk]

But let's work backwards here, since everybody seems to be addressing my points in reverse order. (Which is like building a car, starting with the radio.)

The corruption needs to be removed, by a change in power or some other manner. Then basic industry needs to be restablished and the intellectual class has to be paid comparable wages so Russia stops suffering brain drain. After that, Russia needs to get into industries that aren't already dominated by other countries. (Hence, the need to and my selection of, products and services that aren't in great demand at the moment.)

Selling a product no one wants in industrial quantities is not a recipe for a favorable balance of trade. Historically, no industrializing power (and that's what Russia is- a nation that has to industrialize all over again, having scrapped their Soviet-legacy base in the rush to capitalism) started out as a revolutionary leader in a new industry. There's a reason for that.

If Russia decides to build a giant-ass superconductor factory, they face the reality that an American company can easily do the same thing, in an environment more attractive to highly educated professionals, with a more stable regulatory regime, and with much greater access to cutting edge industrial technology. How are they supposed to compete on those terms? They'd need to develop an economy functionally identical to America's to compete with America in the high tech sector, and if they can do that they've already won anyway.

I'm not just throwing shit out there because it amuses me. It's the simple fact that Russia, whenever it manages to address Step #2, WILL NOT be able to break into well established and dominated industries present in the US/Canada and Europe. You don't build a car factory in 2010 and the use it to produce cars from 1975. (That is to say, you don't come late to the party and expect to fair well against those who have been there since the beginning.)

And yet this is precisely what every major industrializing power has done. The best examples are East Asia: Japan, Korea, and China. In each case we saw a progression: they went from making simple consumer goods (clothes and toys) to more advanced goods (consumer electronics assembly) to high-tech industry (semiconductor fabricators). Japan has finished this trajectory and has a fully modern economy; South Korea is on the way; China is somewhat behind them.

Russia can't follow this exact path, but if it is to have any success building an industrial base (a prerequisite for being a competitor in the high tech sector), it will have to be capable of manufacturing things like cars. Cars are easier to make than rockets- they talk about "rocket science" and not "car science" for a reason. If Russia cannot make cars that compete on the 2010 market, they will not be able to innovate in fields like rocketry... which means

The only reason Russia has a space industry right now is because rocketry is one sector where the Soviet legacy assets were kept partly intact, for defense purposes. They're not going to be able to move beyond Soviet-vintage technology, or expand their facilities, unless they acquire the ability to compete with first rate industrial powers. At which point they will be perfectly able to build modern cars and modern computers, just as they will be able to build modern rockets and superconductors... in the unlikely event that this actually happens.

Any fantasizing about what marvels of modern science they might export on the world market is meaningless without a credible plan for recovering modern industry.

I think this has all been pretty well-established, my question to you is, if my ideas are unpalatable to yourself, what would you suggest Russia does to achieve step 2 and after doing so, what sectors it would best be suited to lead in the future.

[K. A. Pital]

First of all, Russia needs the political will to restore the industry. This means putting an end to - at the very least - the oligarchic top level of capitalists, who are not interested in anything but profiteering from selling the very rawest resource (and to that end, no matter what happens with Russian industries).

Second, Russia needs the funds to restore the industry. This means the money has to come from somewhere. In the early 2000s, many (including some misguided comrades, and perhaps even myself) believed that Putin will imprison the oligarchs for good, take all the resource money and pour it into industrial renovation. This has not happened - Putin protected the riches of one set of oligarchs against another set of oligarchs. The government is still completely dominated by the oligarchs, appointed by the oligarchs to a large extent. Without massive stimulation of domestic investment - be it by nationalization (the socialist way) or by simply forcing the oligarchs to invest into Russia regardless of how long-term the profits may be (the chaebol system), all attempts will utterly fail. Not because they'll be "bad", but simply for a lack of resources.

Third, Russia needs to stop the destruction of it's education system, which is currently underway. Because if this continues, the educated workers, engineers and scientists will vanish. A reversal of education policies is absolutely necessary if Russia is to continue it's existence as an industrialized power, not as a resource neocolony of the West and China. Russia needs to put a decisive end to the theocratic inclinations of the Orthodox church, to it's continued onslaught on the school system which already resulted in the abolition of astronomy from the school program, and cutting of hours for physics and math, but the introduction of state-funded "Religious or secular culture" lessons, which will of course be used only to indoctrinate people into religious nonsense.

As one can easily see, most of these problems cannot be solved without changing the motivations of those who are in power. Because while they only see short-term profits, while they continue to sell raw resources while moving their money and families to the safety of other nations, and while they keep on with their atrocious luxury consumption instead of investment - I'm afraid true change is impossible. This is why political struggle in Russia aimed at overthrowing the oligarchy is a necessary thing - either by overthrowing the oligarchs or by showing them enough strength to make them truly fear, and thus start fixing things, this struggle is about the only way things can genuinely improve.

Maybe I'm cynical, right? *laughs* If you think I am, consider this - under George W. Bush, what were the chances of stem cell research funding being renewed in the USA? That's about the same chance as Russia has to rise under the oligarchs - none, to be blunt. The government can compensate some of Russia's natural disadvantages like climate by concentrating ALL remaining resources and ALL remaining brains for an industrial breakthrough - but if it's completely uninterested in anything but selling raw resources, being a compradoire elite much like many Latin American dictatorships or the Middle Eastern theocracies - I'm sorry, what sort of "improvement", what sort of fucking "status quo" and "middle class" shit can you even talk about?

[Zixinus]

Finding what industry to invest in is a "mere" (saying that as someone who is unfamiliar with the scope of such work) matter of market research and looking up what industries survived and can be lifted to a world-market level. Also, an investment in agriculture, as necessary. That is a topic where speculation is simply worthless without first doing research.

But without the investment, and if what Stas is saying is true and I have so far have found nothing that would indicate he is wrong, that too would be worthless, as there is nothing to invest with. The people who could invest do not do so and instead funnel money away from the country. For foreign investors, Russia is an unattractive option (I think, I am sure that there are better things to pour money in the USA, various European countries, China, India, etc) and even they would only be looking only to milk out the money and not do proper development.

If there is no political will, trying to invest into industry would be futile, as that is only one thing among many to raise Russian economy.

And finally, SilverHawk, answer me this: you mentioned the Chinese mag-lev systems. Why on Earth would the technological and economical superpower that is China buy foreign superconductors when it could, and likely is already, make it at home, with its own (well-educated) people?

[Guardsman Bass]

Finding what industry to invest in is a "mere" (saying that as someone who is unfamiliar with the scope of such work) matter of market research and looking up what industries survived and can be lifted to a world-market level. Also, an investment in agriculture, as necessary. That is a topic where speculation is simply worthless without first doing research.

That's true, although actually starting those industries can be tricky if you don't have much of an entrepeneurial class. Japan, Korea, and Taiwan all had them, which the state-led investment built upon (in Japan's case, it helped that they had had a good chunk of industrialization before and during World War 2). China has developed one, but in the early days they focused on a combination of reforming state enterprises and letting foreign companies use them as an Assembly Point as a substitute.

You have to work with what you have, and I'm not sure exactly what that would be in the case of Russia.

For foreign investors, Russia is an unattractive option (I think, I am sure that there are better things to pour money in the USA, various European countries, China, India, etc) and even they would only be looking only to milk out the money and not do proper development.

I agree, to some extent. Considering that the oil-and-gas sector in Russia "only" accounted for about 30% of FDI in the economy as of 2007 (I'm not sure what it is now, during the recession), it seems like a problem of volume (Russia just needs a lot more FDI, period).

This has not happened - Putin protected the riches of one set of oligarchs against another set of oligarchs. The government is still completely dominated by the oligarchs, appointed by the oligarchs to a large extent.

To be fair to Putin, though, he has to work with the Powers That Be in Russia. How far could he seriously push against them without getting toppled and/or marginalized?

Without massive stimulation of domestic investment - be it by nationalization (the socialist way) or by simply forcing the oligarchs to invest into Russia regardless of how long-term the profits may be (the chaebol system), all attempts will utterly fail.

If you put up capital flight controls (and I'm not faulting those), wouldn't that just encourage them to put even more money into the Oil and Gas Sector?

Maybe I'm cynical, right? *laughs* If you think I am, consider this - under George W. Bush, what were the chances of stem cell research funding being renewed in the USA? That's about the same chance as Russia has to rise under the oligarchs - none, to be blunt.

Slight tangent, but the US Congress actually did come pretty close to over-riding that veto.

Selling a product no one wants in industrial quantities is not a recipe for a favorable balance of trade. Historically, no industrializing power (and that's what Russia is- a nation that has to industrialize all over again, having scrapped their Soviet-legacy base in the rush to capitalism) started out as a revolutionary leader in a new industry. There's a reason for that.

A lot of it, particularly in the case of Korea and Japan, seemed to center around taking advantage of new technologies (and to some extent, cheap labor, although not so much as in China) and business processes to enter into existing major industries. Japan's post-war steel and automobile industries are examples of both.

[SilverHawk]

And finally, SilverHawk, answer me this: you mentioned the Chinese mag-lev systems. Why on Earth would the technological and economical superpower that is China buy foreign superconductors when it could, and likely is already, make it at home, with its own (well-educated) people?

I would say for the same reason the US did the same thing and exported all it's heavy industry jobs that it could. (resulting in the Rust Belt). But then I remembered that China already pays it's workers little more then dirt to cut costs. So yeah, but I wouldn't call China a technological superpower by a long shot.

[Simon_Jester]

And finally, SilverHawk, answer me this: you mentioned the Chinese mag-lev systems. Why on Earth would the technological and economical superpower that is China buy foreign superconductors when it could, and likely is already, make it at home, with its own (well-educated) people?

I would say for the same reason the US did the same thing and exported all it's heavy industry jobs that it could. (resulting in the Rust Belt). But then I remembered that China already pays it's workers little more then dirt to cut costs. So yeah, but I wouldn't call China a technological superpower by a long shot.

At this rate, by the time the Russians could get a superconductor industry running, they would be. Russia has a decaying, hamstrung industrial base, and it would be the work of years just to shift the political system to allow them to start patching it up. Whereas China is doing well and is already spreading into higher-tech areas like electronics assembly; that's why they can afford to think about maglev trains and the like.

You have to remember that the rest of the world won't stand still for Russia. And that there's no reason to expect the people responsible for China's industrial policy to make the same mistakes the people responsible for America's policy* have.

*Unelected CEOs appointed by boards of directors, mostly...

[SilverHawk]

Funny how fast the system can collapse* when the elite can vote themselves pay raises, bonuses and benefits and reward themselves for short term gain over long term sustainability.

*For the Middle Class.

[K. A. Pital]

That's true, although actually starting those industries can be tricky if you don't have much of an entrepeneurial class.

Or if your "enterpreneurial class" foregoes loyalty to your own nation in the name of greater profits or greater security. Then no matter how many enterpreneurs you have, because they'll all be leechers for the most part. And thus completely useless for investment. Which brings us to problem #1, making people actually forego more attractive, more immediately rewarding options and even rapid individual wealth for the sake of your own nation. Hmm. Not an easy thought for the homo economicus.

As for "more FDI" - I think we've debated it with Zentei back when he was here, and the main problem is that FDI is also a limited good. Each year rich nations allocate a certain amount of FDI (which will certainly become smaller with the recent crisis, IMHO), for which then various nations compete. SEA actually eats up most of these FDI yearly provided in the world. Other nations are left to scoop up the pathetic remains.

To be fair to Putin, though, he has to work with the Powers That Be in Russia. How far could he seriously push against them without getting toppled and/or marginalized?

*laughs* That's a question that can be answered only by acting. If you don't act, you're in cahoots with the oligarchs. Which is more than evident, actually... Simple example. Medvedev was for 10 years or so the chairman of Gazprom's board of directors. Trying to dig on any Russian government official unfurls a massive web of oligarchic ties.

If you put up capital flight controls (and I'm not faulting those), wouldn't that just encourage them to put even more money into the Oil and Gas Sector?

Not if you kick them out of it by nationalizing it. Then they'll either have to look for other venues to invest or just pack and go. And considering what the fuckers did to Russia, our life standard, our political system... perhaps it's best they go.

So yeah, but I wouldn't call China a technological superpower by a long shot

You've probably seen they've launched that rocket thing, right? And plan to launch a space station, too. China is rising to a superpower status and its high-tech base is rising to the same level from semiconductors to metallurgy.

[SilverHawk]

You've probably seen they've launched that rocket thing, right? And plan to launch a space station, too. China is rising to a superpower status and its high-tech base is rising to the same level from semiconductors to metallurgy.

I shall be the first to welcome the Chinese to the 1970's (When they launch the space station). Bell Bottoms, Woo!

Until then, I shall be the first to welcome the Chinese to the 1950's. Elvis Presley, baby.

[K. A. Pital]

I shall be the first to welcome the Chinese to the 1970's (When they launch the space station). Bell Bottoms, Woo!

Remind me how many other nations have exclusively owned space stations right now again? I remember we sunk ours and scrapped the plans for Mir 2, and the USA scrapped its own plans for a space station in favor of the ISS boondogle, which is neither exclusively owned nor exclusively supplied by any single nation.

I'm not sure why you think independent construction and supplying of space stations is easy, primitive or "so 1970s". It requires enormous technical advancement, vast industrial infrastructure and lots of work on rocket technologies which is unthinkable without advanced metallury and advanced chemistry at the very least.

Neither of these things comes naturally. An absolute majority of nations in the world do not have a chemical or metals industry that permits them an independent construction and launch of manned space exploration objects, including spaceships, space stations and supply modules.

[SilverHawk]

I shall be the first to welcome the Chinese to the 1970's (When they launch the space station). Bell Bottoms, Woo!

Remind me how many other nations have exclusively owned space stations right now again? I remember we sunk ours and scrapped the plans for Mir 2, and the USA scrapped its own plans for a space station in favor of the ISS boondogle, which is neither exclusively owned nor exclusively supplied by any single nation.

I'm not sure why you think independent construction and supplying of space stations is easy, primitive or "so 1970s". It requires enormous technical advancement, vast industrial infrastructure and lots of work on rocket technologies which is unthinkable without advanced metallury and advanced chemistry at the very least.

Neither of these things comes naturally. An absolute majority of nations in the world do not have a chemical or metals industry that permits them an independent construction and launch of manned space exploration objects, including spaceships, space stations and supply modules.

The USA did it in 1973 with Skylab, the USSR did it in 1971 with Salyut 1. So yeah, it's rather 70's when China is finally able to launch it's own space station.

[K. A. Pital]

The USA did it in 1973 with Skylab, the USSR did it in 1971 with Salyut 1.

Um... both were superpowers. *shrugs*

So yeah, it's rather 70's when China is finally able to launch it's own space station.

The thesis was that China is becoming a superpower.

[SilverHawk]

The USA did it in 1973 with Skylab, the USSR did it in 1971 with Salyut 1.

Um... both were superpowers. *shrugs*

So yeah, it's rather 70's when China is finally able to launch it's own space station.

The thesis was that China is becoming a superpower.

An Economical Superpower, yes. But it's still very much only a Regional military power and it still has a long way to go on the Science front to catch up to the US and Japan.

[Samuel]

Maybe China realizes power projection capabilities are expensive and is shelving that for the time being because they have higher priorities.

[mr friendly guy]

How does the technology of the proposed Chinese space station compare to that of 1970s space station? I imagine things like computer and electronics would be somewhat more advanced. The point I am getting at is that if either a) most of the features of the Chinese station is more advanced than 1970s stuff or b) some the the technology hasn't advanced much since the 1970s than comparing it to the 1970s stuff seems kind of weak.

[Simon_Jester]

Maybe China realizes power projection capabilities are expensive and is shelving that for the time being because they have higher priorities.

Smart of them. Power projection isn't necessary to become an economic giant (I'm avoiding the loaded word 'superpower'). It's mostly useful for geopolitical dickwaving contests (like the race for colonies in Africa in the late Victorian era, or much of the Cold War). Or for fighting wars that ensue in large part because of geopolitical dickwaving contests (like pretty much all of World War Two outside the European theater).

But once you have a giant economy, you can acquire power projection whenever you want given a few decades to build the hardware. The reverse is not true: building a powerful military without a modern economy to feed it isn't a viable model these days, because you can't conquer your way to real wealth in the modern world.

The same goes for science; having a powerful economy with advanced industry and a lot of good engineering lets you become a leader in the sciences (especially if you have millions of trained specialists from your country that you can pay lavish wages to come back to China once your economy is ticking over). Having advanced laboratories doesn't confer economic growth, because the scale is too small.

China's space program proves that its economic power, especially in the industrial sectors, is rapidly closing on some of the highest levels of achievement ever reached by the Western world. Orbiting a space station is still at the fingertip limit of US capabilities (we've done nothing but slow, painful, inefficient work on the subject ourselves in decades), and it is currently beyond Russian capabilities. How does that mean they've only "caught up" to the 1970s?

[K. A. Pital]

Yeah. Power is a relative thing. Pointing out that China is not quite the USSR or USA in their respective zenith of power is to avoid a real question - who is a real challenger to China now?

The US and USSR zenith of power looked especially impressive because during that time China was dirt-poor and backwards, a battleground for industrialized powers of the age.

[Shroom Man 777]

An Economical Superpower, yes. But it's still very much only a Regional military power and it still has a long way to go on the Science front to catch up to the US and Japan.

A long way to go? All it takes is money, which the Chinese have got lots of. Any analogy of the Chinese being technologically or scientifically "stuck in the 1970s" is ridiculous. Do they have to reinvent the microprocessor because somehow, someway, China is stuck in a 1970s tech-base due to a magical "technologically/scientifically stuck in the 1970s" time bubble? Is color television just catching up in China? Like, are the Chinese people just starting to play Pong or something? I hear rollerblades are just around the corner, since it got invented in like 1979.

While they might not have America's shitton of useless "global" military powerdick toys, nor have they wasted all their money sending some assholes to the Moon in a useless feat of astronatic aerobics, neither of those those things are really necessary or that important to China's rise when they're making everyone speak Mandarin and serve kimchi and dog for dinner.