Official midterm elections thread

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Re: Official midterm elections thread

Post by Broomstick »

FUCK! It looks like Leyva the Teabagger is going to win in Indiana - he wants a physical fence on our borders, to make the nation English-only, declare the US a "Christian nation" (whatever the hell that means.... I can imagine, and it's not pretty), says global warming is bogus science, wants to reduce the power of the Environmental Protection Agency, is pro-life (though he'll make "exceptions" for rape, incest, and health of the mother - how generous :roll: ), abolishing the income tax and replacing it with a Federal sales tax, roll back any and all health care reform to a completely free-market system, blames illegal immigrants for the current national problems (nice scapegoating - :::puke:::), his plan to create jobs is to cut taxes on businesses and the wealthy, thinks you can balance a budget with "good fiscal policy" alone while eliminating taxes, and is anti-gay marriage.

Seriously, this guy is on the opposite side from me on almost every issue. And he's going to be my fucking rep in Congress!

Fucking Coats took the senate seat. Piece of shit carpet bagger - these assholes I live with continue to vote against their own self interests.
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Re: Official midterm elections thread

Post by AMT »

I sympathize. Rand Paul's in the lead here for the Senate race and the representative race is a dead heat.
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Re: Official midterm elections thread

Post by weemadando »

...well shit. It looks like you done fucked this one up America.

I guess we'll see you on the other side of the next depression/war/genocide.
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Re: Official midterm elections thread

Post by Aasharu »

I live in Wisconsin, 7th District, and I'm now watching with horror and hate as the entire state swings into wingnut Republican territory. Fuck, I hate living in America sometimes. As soon as I get my degree, I'm moving to New Zealand.
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Re: Official midterm elections thread

Post by CaptainChewbacca »

weemadando wrote:...well shit. It looks like you done fucked this one up America.

I guess we'll see you on the other side of the next depression/war/genocide.
You guys say that every time the Republicans win. It didn't happen in 2004, and it won't happen now.
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Re: Official midterm elections thread

Post by Broomstick »

It's not like America is the only home of Epic Stupid these days... it's just that today America Stupid is jumping up and down yelling "LOOK AT ME! LOOK AT ME! LOOK AT ME!"

>sigh<

I'm hoping all the current shit doesn't end in Horrific Economic Depression and/or WWIII, but my optimism is getting harder and harder to maintain...
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Re: Official midterm elections thread

Post by Drone »

CaptainChewbacca wrote:
weemadando wrote:...well shit. It looks like you done fucked this one up America.

I guess we'll see you on the other side of the next depression/war/genocide.
You guys say that every time the Republicans win. It didn't happen in 2004, and it won't happen now.
A continuing war and then a collapse into a huge recession didn't happen? That's news to me.
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Re: Official midterm elections thread

Post by weemadando »

CaptainChewbacca wrote:
weemadando wrote:...well shit. It looks like you done fucked this one up America.

I guess we'll see you on the other side of the next depression/war/genocide.
You guys say that every time the Republicans win. It didn't happen in 2004, and it won't happen now.
Are you somehow believing that what will be in effect a hung parliament with the teabagger faction holding the balance of power will somehow not result in fucking retarded social and economic policies being implemented?
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Re: Official midterm elections thread

Post by LMSx »

FiveThirtyEight now has a big ole' tally that's being continually updated.

As of 8:30 EST/5:30 PST Republicans have a 7% chance of taking the Senate and an 86% chance of taking the House.
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Re: Official midterm elections thread

Post by The Duchess of Zeon »

Broomstick wrote:FUCK! It looks like Leyva the Teabagger is going to win in Indiana - he wants a physical fence on our borders, to make the nation English-only, declare the US a "Christian nation" (whatever the hell that means.... I can imagine, and it's not pretty), says global warming is bogus science, wants to reduce the power of the Environmental Protection Agency, is pro-life (though he'll make "exceptions" for rape, incest, and health of the mother - how generous :roll: ), abolishing the income tax and replacing it with a Federal sales tax, roll back any and all health care reform to a completely free-market system, blames illegal immigrants for the current national problems (nice scapegoating - :::puke:::), his plan to create jobs is to cut taxes on businesses and the wealthy, thinks you can balance a budget with "good fiscal policy" alone while eliminating taxes, and is anti-gay marriage.

Seriously, this guy is on the opposite side from me on almost every issue. And he's going to be my fucking rep in Congress!

Fucking Coats took the senate seat. Piece of shit carpet bagger - these assholes I live with continue to vote against their own self interests.

It looks like Indiana is going really hard Republican, more than most models predicted, which is tending to favour the idea that the Republicans are going to completely shred the democrats in the House of Representatives. Still, despite the wallop the dems will take in the House it doesn't look like this will change the outcome in the Senate at all, where the Repulican chances of taking control of the chamber are down to just 7%, based on the 538 analysis, anyway, but nobody else will provide that much accurate constantly revised data.
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Re: Official midterm elections thread

Post by CaptainChewbacca »

weemadando wrote:Are you somehow believing that what will be in effect a hung parliament with the teabagger faction holding the balance of power will somehow not result in fucking retarded social and economic policies being implemented?
You think radical legislation can get passed by a deadlocked congress with an opposition party President based on what?
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Re: Official midterm elections thread

Post by Broomstick »

Indiana is dominant Republican anyway, has been for ages, so it's not surprising it leans somewhat that way, but my county is solidly democrat - and that is leaning Republican! Very poor turn out with the Dems in my area, and the Repubs got organized.
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Re: Official midterm elections thread

Post by LMSx »

What's going to kill me waiting around for the results are the Legalize-Marijuana Prop 19 in California and the Income Tax initiative in Washington.

MSNBC.com apparently goes live streaming of the cable channel at 6pm PST so I'm gonna try and jump on that.
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Re: Official midterm elections thread

Post by Cecelia5578 »

CaptainChewbacca wrote:
weemadando wrote:Are you somehow believing that what will be in effect a hung parliament with the teabagger faction holding the balance of power will somehow not result in fucking retarded social and economic policies being implemented?
You think radical legislation can get passed by a deadlocked congress with an opposition party President based on what?

I'm more worried about a GOP controlled House shutting down the government. I rely on the post 9/11 Gi Bill for my main source of money. The fucking GOP can kiss my ass. Then again, it wasn't like Congressional Rethugs were big fans of the post 9/11 Gi Bill anyways.
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Re: Official midterm elections thread

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With about 40% of the vote in, Christine O'Donnell is pulling around 35%.

30-35% was also roughly the number of Bush dead-enders still approving his job performance by 2008.

When we're looking at whom is truly bug-eyed crazy in the American voting electorate, "around 1/3" appears to be the fraction that appears consistently.
Last edited by LMSx on 2010-11-02 08:58pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Official midterm elections thread

Post by Liberty »

Damn. It appears we're losing our house race. Yep, that means that I will be represented by Todd Young the teapartier in Congress. And Coats the carpetbagger in the Senate.

I must say though, I've studied enough history to know that this isn't the end of the world. Elections come, and elections go. I do have to say that when I look at things like health care, I do get mad about this. The reality is that universal health care was proposed right after WWII, and we STILL don't have it. And this election is going to put real reform that much further from reach. THAT makes me mad.
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Re: Official midterm elections thread

Post by LMSx »

Booyeah!

After Joe Manchin took the West Virginia Senate seat, 538 has the GOP with a 2% chance of winning the Senate. They'll have to take upsets in California and Washington state, along with no upsets elsewhere in order to take the majority.

Maybe just as important is the 52 Dems average outcome- if Republicans have 49 or 50, that raises the risk of Joe Lieberman or Ben Nelsen plausibly switching parties and flipping the Senate that way. As long as there's a wee firewall, though, I think the Dems will be fine.
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Re: Official midterm elections thread

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Unsurprisingly, fucking Perry gets another term. This, in spite of his platform basically being, "Hey guys! I'm not Obama! Bill White? Who?"
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Re: Official midterm elections thread

Post by Broomstick »

Looks like Visclosky pulled ahead of Leyva, 57% to 42% but only 50% of precincts are in for that race, so it could flip. Not that I think Visclosky is wonderful - he isn't - but at least he doesn't make me nauseous.
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Re: Official midterm elections thread

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LMSx wrote:Booyeah!

After Joe Manchin took the West Virginia Senate seat, 538 has the GOP with a 2% chance of winning the Senate. They'll have to take upsets in California and Washington state, along with no upsets elsewhere in order to take the majority.

Maybe just as important is the 52 Dems average outcome- if Republicans have 49 or 50, that raises the risk of Joe Lieberman or Ben Nelsen plausibly switching parties and flipping the Senate that way. As long as there's a wee firewall, though, I think the Dems will be fine.
Once again, the GOP can thank the meddling outsiders who put an unelectable teabagger on the ballot in Delaware. Mike Castle was a lock to win that race; O'Donnell started 13 points down, ran an awful campaign, and will probably lose by 20.

EDIT: Not that it matters much, but the teabagger running for the Delaware at-large House seat lost, too. A rare pickup for the Dems tonight.

The Democrats now control every statewide office in Delaware and both houses of the state legislature.
Last edited by RedImperator on 2010-11-02 10:01pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Official midterm elections thread

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LMSx wrote:With about 40% of the vote in, Christine O'Donnell is pulling around 35%.

30-35% was also roughly the number of Bush dead-enders still approving his job performance by 2008.

When we're looking at whom is truly bug-eyed crazy in the American voting electorate, "around 1/3" appears to be the fraction that appears consistently.
Too crazy for Delaware, she may be:
Christine O'Donnell Falls Short to Chris Coons in Delaware
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With a fresh-faced exuberance matched only by a talent for putting her foot in her mouth, Christine O'Donnell and her quirky personality captivated the nation and dominated news coverage even in this extraordinary campaign.

But neither her reality show appeal nor blanket publicity were enough to convince Delaware voters to make the Republican candidate and Tea Party favorite their senator.

O'Donnell lost big on Tuesday to the Democrat, the wonkish county executive Chris Coons, in a contest the GOP had once considered a surefire pickup and particularly sweet revenge in that it was Vice President Joe Biden's longtime seat. Yet in September, O'Donnell's victory over the state's popular Republican moderate, Rep. Mike Castle, in the GOP primary completely changed that dynamic.

The media immediately highlighted the 41-year-old O'Donnell's track record of tax problems and financial woes and staff meltdowns. But those were overshadowed by a steady drip of leaks from videotape archives of her many earlier television appearances as a Christian activist, in which she crusaded against masturbation, for example, or admitted she "dabbled into witchcraft" before finding Jesus again.

As the campaign wore on, her gaffes on constitutional matters like the First Amendment's ban on establishing a state religion and her claim that God had called her to run -- and the prayers of her faithful backers would propel her to victory -- did not help her poll numbers, though they did make her a media star.

Research from the Pew Project for Excellence in Journalism showed that after President Obama, O'Donnell was the top newsmaker in 2010, meaning she was the focus of more stories than any other candidate -- and she performed that feat in just a few weeks, whereas the president has been in the news all year.

Still, none of that could save O'Donnell from herself, or from Delaware's notoriously middle-of-the-road voters, who were favoring Coons by more than 15 points as returns rolled in.

"Nearly half the state's voters describe themselves as moderate," CNN's Rebecca Sinderbrand wrote in an analysis based on exit polls. "Nearly another 1 in 4 call themselves liberal. This is Biden country: 58 percent of Delaware voters say they approve of President Obama's job performance. And 36 percent say they strongly oppose the Tea Party."

One surprise, Sinderbrand noted, is that despite pre-election polls that showing Castle easily beating Coons in a hypothetical matchup, "the voters who turned out today said they would still probably have sent Coons to Washington over Castle, backing him 44-43 percent."

Still, there was a sense that O'Donnell's candidacy represented a lost opportunity for the GOP, and there were other signs on election night that O'Donnell and her tea party fans did her party more harm than good in Delaware.

For example, the same night in September that Delaware's Republican voters chose O'Donnell over Castle, they also nominated real estate developer Glen Urquhart to run for his congressional seat, and he proceeded to make O'Donnell look moderate at times.

As a result, Democrat John Carney, the state's former lieutenant governor, rolled to victory in Castle's once secure old seat, a net pick up for Democrats in a year no candidate with a "D" after their name could feel safe.

Now the interesting question -- and more unpredictable forecast -- surrounds Christine O'Donnell's future.

Could she become another Sarah Palin? They are both attractive, plain-spoken, gaffe-prone conservative women with national profiles who hail from states with tiny populations (700,000 in Palin's Alaska and less than 900,000 in Delaware). True, O'Donnell has an even thinner political resume than Palin's half-term as Alaska's governor. But O'Donnell also has much more television exposure -- to her chagrin, at times -- having appeared regularly on Bill Maher's HBO show, "Politically Incorrect," among other venues.

With much less experience, Palin parlayed her galvanizing personality into a Fox News gig and a reality show, and came back from electoral humiliation to become a political queenmaker whose beneficiaries from Tuesday's vote could set her up for a presidential run in 2012.

O'Donnell likely can't aim that high, but she could be an influence, and Tuesday night signaled she may try to be. "The Republican Party will never be the same, and that's a good thing," she told cheering supporters.

At the very least, O'Donnell could certainly follow in her mentor's media footsteps.

Besides, unlike Palin, O'Donnell is single, instantly making her the Tea Party's most eligible bachelorette and a magnet for more media coverage -- whether that's a good thing or not.
ABC is calling Toomey (R) for Pennsylvania over Sestak (D), but everything else I see says it's too close to call at this point...
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Re: Official midterm elections thread

Post by Cecelia5578 »

FSTargetDrone wrote:
ABC is calling Toomey (R) for Pennsylvania over Sestak (D), but everything else I see says it's too close to call at this point...
I just checked Talking Points Memo, and googled a bunch of Philadelphia stations. All of them still show Sestak with a 4ish percent lead over Toomey. The local Philly ABC station isn't saying a word about calling the race for Toomey.

Irresponsible and reckless, or am I missing something?
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Re: Official midterm elections thread

Post by RedImperator »

Cecelia5578 wrote:
FSTargetDrone wrote:
ABC is calling Toomey (R) for Pennsylvania over Sestak (D), but everything else I see says it's too close to call at this point...
I just checked Talking Points Memo, and googled a bunch of Philadelphia stations. All of them still show Sestak with a 4ish percent lead over Toomey. The local Philly ABC station isn't saying a word about calling the race for Toomey.

Irresponsible and reckless, or am I missing something?
All the news organizations use a different model for calling a race (none of them wait until every last vote is counted unless it's exceptionally close). It's not necessarily reckless unless their model is sloppy.
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Re: Official midterm elections thread

Post by Kyler »

I am really not surprised with the results in Indiana. Obama was the first Democratic President since Kennedy to carry the state.
I hate Dan Coats, but Ellsworth could have won the 8th district Rep seat again. He should have turned down Bayh, when he asked him to run for his Senate seat. Glad to see that the democrats will probably carry the Senate.

I hate that Rand Paul won, especially by soo much. It really shows how smart people in Kentucky are.
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Re: Official midterm elections thread

Post by Rye »

CaptainChewbacca wrote:
weemadando wrote:...well shit. It looks like you done fucked this one up America.

I guess we'll see you on the other side of the next depression/war/genocide.
You guys say that every time the Republicans win. It didn't happen in 2004, and it won't happen now.
To be fair, there was a rather noticeable depression and the war in Iraq started only a year earlier, by the same group people voted in in 2000/2004.
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