Wagner Thread (Was Russian Coup Thread)

[Crazedwraith]

Like I said before, I don't think he surrendered so much as got what he wanted.

Er... is exile, his catering contracts being cancelled, and Wagner being merged into the military (or also exiled) really him getting what he wanted?

[LadyTevar]

Like I said before, I don't think he surrendered so much as got what he wanted.

Er... is exile, his catering contracts being cancelled, and Wagner being merged into the military (or also exiled) really him getting what he wanted?

It doesn't sound that way to me. But we don't know ALL of what was in the bargain.

We do know that it got Prigozhin himself out of Ukraine, and most of Wagner is no longer on the front lines of the battles in Ukraine. In a way, that's a 'win' for Prigozhin, especially since he now gets to sit back and watch the Russian Military fall down and lose "everything Wagner got them".
We know it got Wagner a base in Belarus, and as per my link from the BBC, it seems Wagner is taking over that base and setting up housekeeping there. That too is a "win", they have their own base away from the Russian Military.

[Zaune]

There's also a rumor that Wagner's contract to provide meals to the Russian Military was cancelled. Wonder who's providing food now?

The civilians in the occupied territories, probably.

[Broomstick]

There's also a rumor that Wagner's contract to provide meals to the Russian Military was cancelled. Wonder who's providing food now?

Rumor has had it for some time that the Russian Military have been supplying themselves out of Ukrainian pantries. Was anyone feeding them reliably before now?

[Ralin]

Like I said before, I don't think he surrendered so much as got what he wanted.

Er... is exile, his catering contracts being cancelled, and Wagner being merged into the military (or also exiled) really him getting what he wanted?

Bear in mind that what he was looking at was Wagner being folded completely into the regular military, him losing all of his power and influence and probably being whacked within a year. So yes, relative to that.

Also bear in mind that what we're publicly hearing about the deniable asset mercenary wing of the Russian military probably isn't the full story. Given that the guy is still alive and apparently still has an army I suspect what's really going on is they're going to retire the Wagner name and make a big show of folding it into the regular military while the veteran core of the organization follows him to Belarus and quietly gets sent back to Africa to resume business as usual.

[Gandalf]

Being allowed to persist in exile, as opposed to winding up like Navalny is a pretty solid win. He stood up to Putin and was allowed to leave.

Also, what happens to Wagner's foreign assets? If Prigozhin still has them, he's doing well.

[LadyTevar]

Being allowed to persist in exile, as opposed to winding up like Navalny is a pretty solid win. He stood up to Putin and was allowed to leave.

Also, what happens to Wagner's foreign assets? If Prigozhin still has them, he's doing well.

We heard that the KGB-by-new-name searched his Russian properties and removed large amounts of cash, which I'm *sure* went straight into the Russian coffers and not someone's personal pockets.
We don't know what kind of money Wagner had hidden in Africa and other parts of the world, but I'm sure that they're not hurting for money.

[KraytKing]

Aside from their money, I wonder what the path forward is for Wagner's assets and liabilities around the world. They were operating with the backing of the Russian state in a lot of places. I wonder how Mali feels about this. If Wagner dissolves completely, a lot of nations like Mali lose a substantial chunk of their security. Even if Wagner just has to cut expenses without Kremlin patronage, that could still be severely troublesome.

[LadyTevar]

Aside from their money, I wonder what the path forward is for Wagner's assets and liabilities around the world. They were operating with the backing of the Russian state in a lot of places. I wonder how Mali feels about this. If Wagner dissolves completely, a lot of nations like Mali lose a substantial chunk of their security. Even if Wagner just has to cut expenses without Kremlin patronage, that could still be severely troublesome.

Especially since Mali just threw the UN forces out (they were mostly French, and Mali has a beef with their French colonizers).

[LadyTevar]

And today, in "Where's Prigozhin":

Wagner Boss In Russia, claims Belarus Leader

Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin - who led a short-lived rebellion in Russia last month - is in Russia and not Belarus, the leader of Belarus says.

Prigozhin's whereabouts have been a mystery since the mutiny.

Under the deal to end the stand-off, charges against him were dropped and he was offered a move to Belarus.

But on Thursday Belarus leader Alexander Lukashenko said: "As for Prigozhin, he's in St Petersburg. He is not on the territory of Belarus."In response to Mr Lukashenko's remarks the Kremlin said it was "not following" Mr Prigozhin's movements.

Mr Lukashenko had helped broker the deal to end the mutiny, and just over a week ago said Prigozhin had arrived in Belarus.

The BBC tracked Prigozhin's private jet flying to Belarus in late June, and returning to Russia the same evening.

It has since made several flights between St Petersburg and Moscow - although it is not clear if Prigozhin has been on board. The BBC also can't verify Mr Lukashenko's claim about the Wagner leader's current location.

On Thursday Mr Lukashenko added that "as far as I know" the rest of the Wagner fighters were still at their bases - which could include eastern Ukraine or a training base in Russia's Krasnodar region.

The Belarus leader said an offer for Wagner to station some of its fighters in Belarus - a prospect that has alarmed neighbouring Nato countries - still stands and he has offered several Soviet-era military sites for their use.

"But Wagner have a different vision," he said, adding: "Of course I won;t tell you about that."

"At present, the issue of their relocation has not been resolved."

Mr Lukashenko - who has ruled Belarus since 1994 and is widely thought to have rigged 2020 elections to maintain power - said he did not see Wagner fighters moving to Belarus as a risk and did not believe they would ever take up arms against his country.

The previous night, Russian state TV appeared to turn on Prigozhin by showing off his wealth and weapons inside a "palace" of his which had been raided by police.

Footage showed bundles of cash, a collection of wigs, a fully-equipped medical treatment room and gold bars.

The Wagner Group is a private army of mercenaries that has been fighting alongside the regular Russian army in Ukraine.

[bilateralrope]

the Kremlin said it was "not following" Mr Prigozhin's movements.

Either they are lying or they know he's dead and don't care where his body ends up.

[LadyTevar]

It seems Lukashenko is very good at spending 4 hours talking and giving away nothing. Very long article.

"No Heroes After Wagner Coup" says Lukashenko

It was Alexander Lukashenko who had brokered the deal to end the Wagner mutiny. So we're told.
So if there's anyone who can shine a light on this murkiest of stories, surely it's the leader of Belarus. Or so we hope.

We're part of a small group of journalists invited to the Palace of Independence in Minsk for "a conversation" with Mr Lukashenko.
Only a few weeks ago there'd been feverish speculation about his health. But the Belarusian leader clearly has stamina. The "conversation" lasts nearly four hours.

Instead of shining a light, though, he muddies the waters on the recent Russian uprising.
According to the agreement between the Wagner Group and the Kremlin, Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin was supposed to move to Belarus, along with some of his fighters.

That hasn't happened. Not yet anyway.

"As of this morning," says Mr Lukashenko, "the Wagner fighters, very serious ones, are still in the camps they'd withdrawn to after Bakhmut.
"As for Yevgeny Prigozhin, he's in St Petersburg. Or perhaps this morning he flew to Moscow. Or perhaps he's somewhere else. But he's not in Belarus."
I ask Alexander Lukashenko whether that means the deal is off.
He denies that. It feels as if there are conversations going on behind the scenes we're not going to be told about.

When it comes to discussing the mutiny, Moscow and Minsk have not exactly been on the same page.
Last weekend Russian state TV declared that President Vladimir Putin had emerged from these dramatic events a hero.

"I think that no-one came out of that situation a hero," Mr Lukashenko tells me.
"Not Prigozhin, not Putin, not Lukashenko. There were no heroes. And the lesson from this? If we create armed groups like this, we need to keep an eye on them and pay serious attention to them."

The "conversation" moves on to nuclear weapons. In particular, the nuclear warheads Russia has said it is moving to Belarus.

"God forbid I should ever have to take the decision to use them," Mr Lukashenko had said recently, adding, "But I won't hesitate to use them."
I remind him of those comments.
"Joe Biden could say the same thing, and Prime Minister Sunak," Mr Lukashenko replies. "And my friend Xi Jinping and my Big Brother President Putin."
"But these are not your weapons we're talking about," I point out. "They're Russian ones. It's not your decision to take."
"In Ukraine a whole army is fighting with foreign weapons, isn't it," the Belarusian leader retorts. "Nato weapons. Because they've run out of their own. So why can't I fight with someone else's weapons?"
But we're talking nuclear weapons, not pistols, I reply.
"Nuclear, yes. They're weapons too. Tactical nuclear weapons."

As you can probably guess from his nuclear comments, Alexander Lukashenko is a controversial figure.

The US, EU and the UK do not recognise him as the legitimate president of Belarus. In 2020 Belarusians poured on to the streets to accuse him of stealing the country's presidential election. The protests were brutally suppressed.

I mention the case of jailed opposition activist Maria Kolesnikova.
"For months her relatives and lawyers have been denied access to her in prison. Why?" I ask.
"I don't know anything about this," he claims.
"The last time I interviewed you in the autumn of 2021, there were 873 political prisoners in Belarus," I remind Mr Lukashenko. "Now there are 1,500."
"There is no article in our criminal code for political crimes," he replies.
The absence of an article on political crimes doesn't mean there are no political prisoners, I point out.
"Prisoners cannot be political prisoners, if there's no article," he insists. "How can they be?"

[bilateralrope]

Wagner fighters neared Russian nuclear base during revolt

Reuters
July 11, 202311:51 AM GMT+12Updated 3 hours ago

July 10 (Reuters) - As rebellious Wagner forces drove north toward Moscow on June 24, a contingent of military vehicles diverted east on a highway in the direction of a fortified Russian army base that holds nuclear weapons, according to videos posted online and interviews with local residents.

Once the Wagner fighters reach more rural regions, the surveillance trail goes cold – about 100 km from the nuclear base, Voronezh-45. Reuters could not confirm what happened next, and Western officials have repeatedly said that Russia's nuclear stockpile was never in danger during the uprising, which ended quickly and mysteriously later that day.

But in an exclusive interview, Ukraine's head of military intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, said that the Wagner fighters went far further. He said that they reached the nuclear base and that their intention was to acquire small Soviet-era nuclear devices in order to "raise the stakes" in their mutiny. "Because if you are prepared to fight until the last man standing, this is one of the facilities that significantly raises the stakes," Budanov said.

The only barrier between the Wagner fighters and nuclear weapons, Budanov said, were the doors to the nuclear storage facility. "The doors of the storage were closed and they didn't get into the technical section," he said.

Reuters was not able to independently determine if Wagner fighters made it to Voronezh-45. Budanov did not provide evidence for his assertion and he declined to say what discussions, if any, had taken place with the United States and other allies about the incident. He also didn't say why the fighters subsequently withdrew.

A source close to the Kremlin with military ties corroborated parts of Budanov's account. A Wagner contingent "managed to get into a zone of special interest, as a result of which the Americans got agitated because nuclear munitions are stored there," this person said, without elaborating further.

A source in Russian occupied east Ukraine, with knowledge of the matter, said this caused concern in the Kremlin and provided impetus for a hastily negotiated end to the rebellion on the evening of June 24, brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.

U.S. officials expressed doubts about this account. In response to a query about whether Wagner forces reached the base and sought to acquire nuclear weapons, White House National Security Council spokesman Adam Hodge said, "We are not able to corroborate this report. We had no indication at any point that nuclear weapons or materials were at risk."

The Kremlin and Wagner commander Yevgeny Prigozhin did not respond to questions for this article.

Matt Korda, a Senior Research Associate and Project Manager for the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, said it would be "virtually impossible for a non-state actor" to breach Russian nuclear security. Wagner may have had thousands of troops at its disposal, he said, but it's unlikely any of them knew how to detonate a bomb.

"If you had a malicious actor who was able to get their hands on a nuclear weapon, they would find the weapons stored in a state of incomplete assembly," he said. "They would need to be completed by installing specialised equipment and then unlocking permissive action links, and in order to do that they would need the cooperation of someone from the 12th Directorate" responsible for protecting Russia's nuclear arsenal.

Budanov is the first official to suggest Wagner fighters came close to acquiring nuclear weapons and further escalating an armed mutiny that has been widely interpreted as the biggest challenge to Russian President Vladimir Putin's power. U.S. officials have long feared the nightmare possibility that strife in Russia might lead to nuclear devices falling into rogue hands.

Wagner fighters drove in the direction of Voronezh-45 after peeling away from a larger convoy of heavy weaponry that was advancing along the M4 highway that runs north from Rostov, where the rebellion began. This smaller group headed east, and engaged Russian forces in a firefight at the first village it reached, according to residents and social media posts. But then it appears to have passed without hindrance for 90 km, including driving unchallenged through the centre of a town that houses a military base.

Reuters followed the group's progress to the town of Talovaya, about 100 km from the base, which dates back to the Soviet era. It is one of Russia's 12 "national-level storage facilities" for nuclear weapons, according to a report by U.N. scientists. At Talovaya, Russian forces attacked the column, according to local people who spoke to Reuters. A Russian helicopter was shot down, killing the two crew.

Reuters interviewed Budanov in his Kyiv office, which Russia targeted with strikes as recently as May. Dressed in military fatigues with a black pistol tucked into his waistband, Budanov spoke in front of a painting that depicts an owl, a symbol of Ukraine's spy bureau, clutching a bat, symbol of Russia's military intelligence agency. He said Voronezh-45 houses small nuclear devices that can be carried in a backpack. "This was one of the key storage facilities for these backpacks," he said, without providing evidence for this assertion. Reuters was unable to establish if the backpack-sized nuclear charges, referred to by Budanov, are kept at Voronezh-45.

Such small nuclear bombs – light enough to be carried by a single person – are Cold War relics. American troops trained to parachute from planes with nuclear weapons strapped to their bodies and Soviet troops trained to deploy them behind enemy lines on foot. But by the early 1990s, both nations agreed to remove them from their arsenals as tensions eased, and did so, though Russia kept some to mine harbours, said Hans Kristensen, who leads the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, based in Washington.

Several former U.S. nuclear nonproliferation officials cautioned that it's difficult to know for sure whether the Russians kept their promise to destroy their backpack-style nuclear weapons. "I don't believe the Russians still have them, but I wouldn't bet my life on it," said David Jonas, former general counsel to the U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration, which tracks atomic weapons and radioactive material worldwide.

Amy Woolf, a nuclear weapons specialist for U.S. lawmakers at the Library of Congress from 1988 to 2022, raised doubts about the potency of such weapons if they do still exist. "It's possible there's still some old crap stuck in storage somewhere," she said. "But is it operational? Almost certainly not."

Jonas, who advised top Pentagon officials on nonproliferation, agreed, noting that such portable weapons need to be maintained and updated, and degrade over time. He said Russia has struggled to maintain its conventional forces, let alone its atomic stockpile.

A FALLING OUT

Wagner was founded by Prigozhin and Dmitry Utkin, a former special forces officer in Russia's GRU military intelligence. Cast as a private army, Wagner enabled Russia to dabble in wars in countries including Syria, Libya and Mali with full deniability. U.S. officials also say Prigozhin's business operated a social media troll factory that interfered with the 2016 American presidential election. In recent days, Putin confirmed the Russian state financed Wagner. State television reported that Prigozhin's operations had received more than 1.7 trillion roubles ($19 billion) from the Russian budget.

Prigozhin fired the opening salvo of his mutiny on June 23 when he accused the Russian military of launching a missile strike on a Wagner camp in Russian-occupied east Ukraine. Russia denied any such operation.

At least half a dozen sources inside and outside Russia say the conflict had been brewing for some time and that money and tensions between rival clans lay at its heart. For months, Prigozhin had been openly insulting Putin's most senior military men, casting Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov as corrupt and incompetent and blaming them for reversals in Russia's war in Ukraine.

The insults went unanswered in public for a long time. Then Shoigu hit back. On June 10, he ordered Wagner fighters to sign contracts with his ministry agreeing to become part of the regular army by month's end. Prigozhin refused. On June 13, Putin publicly sided with Shoigu. The state was moving to cut Wagner's funding and this, the sources inside and outside Russia told Reuters, was the trigger for the mutiny.

In the early hours of June 24, Wagner forces arrived in the southern city of Rostov, an important command centre for Russia's operations in Ukraine. Wagner took charge of the base there and within hours video emerged of Prigozhin chatting with Russian commanders. Around the same time, other contingents of Wagner forces struck out north, heading in the direction of Moscow along the M-4 highway.

Wagner fighters encountered little resistance.

Some Russian units that stood in their path or were instructed to intercept them did nothing, according to five sources: a Russian security source, three people close to the Kremlin, and a person close to the Russian-installed leadership in eastern Ukraine. The security source said two Russian military formations around the south-west of the country received orders to resist Wagner but they did not act on the command.

Some Russian units did nothing because they were taken by surprise and were outgunned, the sources said, while others stood by because they assumed, until Putin went on television at 10:00 a.m. Moscow time to denounce Prigozhin, that Wagner was acting on the Kremlin's orders. The sources said some officers were reluctant to move against Wagner because they felt solidarity with the private army and shared Prigozhin's disillusionment with the way the Defence Ministry top brass was running the war.

At the Bugayevka crossing between Ukraine and Russia, images posted by a Wagner-affiliated Telegram channel on the morning of June 24 showed dozens of Russian troops standing in line, unarmed. The caption said they had laid down their weapons.

Oleksiy Danilov, Secretary of Ukraine's National Security and Defence Council, told Reuters that many in the Russian military sided with Prigozhin. "There are so many commanders who sympathise with Wagner and don't want to follow Putin," he said, adding that he knew of 14 Russian generals who supported Prigozhin. Reuters was not able to independently verify his account about the generals.

One branch of the Wagner force headed north along the M-4 highway, in the direction of Moscow. Their route took them right past Boguchar, a garrison town where a Russian unit is stationed. Three local residents who spoke to Reuters said that the military there did nothing to resist, and that a significant number of people in the town, including people serving in the military, felt sympathy with the Wagner force.

One woman said of Prigozhin: "Who else should we support? At least there's one dignified person who was not frightened." Another female resident also said Wagner had widespread support in the town, and that many Wagner fighters are from Boguchar. "They're all friends," she said.

A NUCLEAR DETOUR

As the main Wagner column advanced northwards towards Moscow, a group of military vehicles, and some civilian pickups and vans, turned eastwards. The moment is captured on a video posted on a Voronezh region news site. Reuters geo-located the video to a junction near the town of Pavlovsk. The breakaway contingent rumbled through villages and along a road that cut through patches of forest and flat farmland, skirting gulleys carved out by tributaries of the Don River.

A video posted on a local online bulletin board shows a field in the dawn light near the village of Elizavetovka on June 24. In the distance there is an explosion and gunfire, and panicked cries from a male voice: "Has a war started?"

Then a fresh round of automatic gunfire, closer this time.

Reuters spoke to the man's neighbour, who said the Russian military had attacked the Wagner force. At 08:24 am, a user on the same online bulletin board, Anna Sandrakova, wrote: "Shells are flying, low-flying helicopters, we could hear explosions, automatic gunfire." Maxim Yantsov, the local government chief for Pavlovsk district, wrote on his Telegram channel that 19 households were damaged as a result of shooting around Elizavetovka.

A few hours later, the convoy passed through another village, Vorontsovka, still moving in the direction of the nuclear facility. Two videos posted to Telegram show more than a dozen vehicles, including armoured personnel carriers, tanks and trucks mounted with machine guns or carrying artillery.

Next on the route, the convoy reached Buturlinovka, according to posts on the town's online bulletin board and a video that Reuters identified as being recorded in the town. Buturlinovka, closer still to the nuclear facility, is the location of a military air base.

By Saturday evening, users on a VKontakte online forum started reporting the presence of a military column at the town of Talovaya, 110 km from the military base. A video shared by a local resident with Reuters shows a column of military vehicles moving through the outskirts of the town. A second video, provided by another resident, showed at least 75 vehicles in a convoy on the edge of the town, including 5 armoured personnel carriers, two ambulances, and an artillery gun towed behind a truck. A third resident said local people offered food and water to the Wagner troops. The situation was calm, he said, until a Russian helicopter fired at the column. It fired back and the helicopter fell to the ground, followed by explosions and a cloud of smoke.

Russian state media later broadcast video of a wooden cross erected at the site in Talovaya district where the helicopter, a Ka-52 attack aircraft, crashed. Pskov region governor Mikhail Vedernikov said the two crewmen who were killed were stationed at a military base in his region, in north-west Russia. "True to their oath, they did everything to protect our country," he said in a video address posted on his Telegram channel.

Reuters couldn't determine what the column did next. A resident of Talovaya said that as far as he was aware, it did not move any further and the following day – after the truce was announced – the column turned around and went back the way it came.

Budanov said in his interview that an unspecified number of fighters did in fact press on to Voronezh-45 with the intention of seizing portable, Soviet-era nuclear weapons stored at the facility.

The nuclear facility at Voronezh-45 is operated and guarded by military unit no. 14254, part of the defence ministry's 12th Main Directorate responsible for protecting Russia's arsenal of nuclear weapons, according to the Russian Defence Ministry's website and publicly available records. What is stored there is a closely guarded secret. Russia does not publicly acknowledge even keeping nuclear weapons there; that information has emerged from the reports of foreign scientists.

Reuters was unable to establish if the backpack-sized nuclear charges referred to by Budanov are kept at the facility. But there is evidence that such devices were developed by the Soviet Union. In testimony to the U.S. Congress, in 1997 Alexei Yablokov, a former Russian presidential science advisor, said Soviet scientists in the 1970s created suitcase-sized nuclear munitions for use by secret agents.

Kristensen, the Federation of American Scientists researcher who said that Russia and the United States discarded thousands of suitcase-sized nukes in the 1990s, said that he doubts any remain stored Voronezh-45. He said he believes – but cannot be certain – that other nuclear weapons are stored at Voronezh-45, which satellite images show to be well-maintained.

Given the 12th Main Directorate's control over the facility, the movement of weapons would take time and likely be detected by U.S. satellites, he added.

Further north, there is evidence that the Russian military undertook drastic measures to block off another potential access route to Voronezh-45. The E-38 road branches off the M-4 highway at a settlement called Rogachevka. This road also leads to Voronezh-45. On the evening of June 24, local residents reported hearing explosions. A video posted on a Telegram channel captured the sound of an aircraft followed by an explosion. A motorist driving along the E-38 posted a video that shows the road covered in debris near a bridge over the river Bityug. In one lane is a deep crater.

A DEAL IS STRUCK

On the evening of June 24 there was an unexpected announcement by Belarusian state media. The country's president, Alexsandr Lukashenko, had negotiated Prigozhin's agreement to halt his forces' advances. Prigozhin said in an audio message that his forces had come within 125 miles of Moscow and were "turning around" to head back to their training camps. Under the deal, Russia would not prosecute the rebels and Wagner fighters would either withdraw to Belarus or join Russia's regular army.

A European intelligence source said Prigozhin was persuaded to abandon his revolt after realising he didn't have sufficient support amongst the military.

Prigozhin's whereabouts and future plans are unclear.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday that Putin held talks with the Wagner leader on June 29 and "gave his assessment of the events" of June 24.

One of Prigozhin's private jets has made multiple trips between Belarus and Russia in the days since the rebellion, according to flight tracking data.

When Belarusian president Lukashenko hosted a group of journalists in Minsk on July 6, he said Wagner's fighters had yet to arrive at their new Belarusian base. "As for Yevgeny Prigozhin, he's in St Petersburg. Or perhaps this morning he flew to Moscow. Or perhaps he's somewhere else. But he's not in Belarus," Lukashenko said.

(Reporting by Mari Saito and Tom Balmforth in Kyiv, John Shiffman and Phil Stewart in Washington, Polina Nikolskaya in London, Maria Tsvetkova in New York, Anton Zverev, Christian Lowe in Paris, David Gauthier-Villars in Istanbul, Stephen Grey, Reade Levinson and Eleanor Whalley in London, Milan Pavicic and Daria Shamonova in Gdansk; edited by Janet McBride)

Good thing they didn't get hold of any nukes.

[Zwinmar]

Hmm, just spitballing here, but what if the threat of them actually getting one is what pushed the deal forward. It was of sufficient threat that Putin caved. Even worse is if they did get their hands on one, even if it isn't operational no one know that. That convoy sounds too much like a rapid raid force.

[bilateralrope]

Even if the nuke wasn't operational, there is still the dirty bomb risk.

[LadyTevar]

We still don't know what happened when Prigozhin and Putin met, or where Prigozhin is, but here's Putin's version:

Wagner Head Rejected Offer to Join Russian Army says Putin

Wagner mercenary group head Yevgeniy Prigozhin has rejected an offer to his fighters to serve as a unit in Russia's army, President Vladimir Putin says.

He told Kommersant newspaper that many group commanders had backed the plan to be led by a senior Wagner figure during recent talks in Moscow.

He said Prigozhin's reply was "the guys do not agree with this decision".

The talks were held just days after Wagner's aborted mutiny on 23-24 June that challenged Mr Putin's authority.

Under the deal that ended the short-lived rebellion, the mercenaries were told they could join the regular Russian army or head to Belarus, a close ally of Russia.

Wagner has fought some of the bloodiest battles since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

However, the US military now assesses that the group is no longer "participating in any significant capacity in support of combat operations in Ukraine".

The comments were made on Thursday by Pentagon spokesman Pat Ryder, who also said that "the majority" of Wagner fighters were believed to still be in areas of Russian-occupied Ukraine.

In a separate development, Belarus' defence ministry said on Friday that Wagner fighters were now acting as military instructors for the country's territorial defence forces.

The ministry said the fighters were training Belarusian forces "in a number of military disciplines" near the town of Osipovichy, about 85km (53 miles) south-east of the capital Minsk.

In Thursday's interview with Kommersant business daily, President Putin said that 35 Wagner commanders, including Prigozhin, had been present at the Kremlin meeting on 29 June.

Mr Putin said he had offered them several "employment options", including continued service under the command of a senior Wagner commander known by his nom de guerre Sedoi - Grey Hair.

"Many [Wagner fighters] were nodding when I was saying this," Mr Putin said.

"And Prigozhin, who was sitting in front and didn't see all this, said after listening: 'No, the guys do not agree with this decision,'" the president added.

He also said that "Wagner does not exist" when asked whether the group would be preserved as a fighting unit. "There is no law on private military organisations. It just doesn't exist."

This "difficult issue" of how to legalise Wagner fighters should be discussed in parliament, Mr Putin suggested.

The Kremlin appears to want to differentiate between the Wagner chief and regular Wagner fighters, driving a wedge between them, says the BBC's Russia editor Steve Rosenberg in Moscow.

He adds that this would explain the attempts in Russia's state media to discredit Prigozhin.

The current whereabouts of Prigozhin, a former Putin loyalist, are unknown.

The article then shifts to Biden and Ukraine commentaries, but they're not as important.

[Broomstick]

So... Wagner dudes are now either regular Russian army or exiled to Belarus?

Weren't they the more effective part of the Russian side in the Ukraine war?

This... does not strike me as an effective strategy for winning.

[Ralin]

So... Wagner dudes are now either regular Russian army or exiled to Belarus?

Weren't they the more effective part of the Russian side in the Ukraine war?

This... does not strike me as an effective strategy for winning.

Kinda hard to press-gang an army if they've decided they don't want to be press-ganged.

[Lord Revan]

So... Wagner dudes are now either regular Russian army or exiled to Belarus?

Weren't they the more effective part of the Russian side in the Ukraine war?

This... does not strike me as an effective strategy for winning.

Well the Russian strategies haven't exactly wowed us with their effectiveness even with Wagner's involvement. I suspect who ever made this call (be it Putin himself or someone under him) was just thinking about their personal authority and status and not the strategic impact, that seems the typical Russian response to issues during that conflict if someone complains or reveals (either intentionally or unintentionally) the effects of poor strategy and logistics they get replaced but the problem won't get fixed.

[Zaune]

Presumably the Wagner units who've been punted to Belarus are the ones whose loyalties are still in question, so they've been shunted somewhere they can't do as much direct damage when the next pay dispute happens. Not exactly ideal, but I suppose Russia's not really in a position to have them all shot as deserters.

[Broomstick]

If Russia tried to have the Wagner mutineers shot that would result in warfare between loyalists and Wagnerites - basically, a Russian civil war. Which even the Russians are not so stupid as to trigger at this point.

This is the first time I can recall a coup attempt/rebellion that didn't succeed yet the perpetrators got away with it - that is, didn't win but also didn't suffer significant punishment like long jail terms or execution.

[Ralin]

I suspect who ever made this call (be it Putin himself or someone under him) was just thinking about their personal authority and status and not the strategic impact, that seems the typical Russian response to issues during that conflict if someone complains or reveals (either intentionally or unintentionally) the effects of poor strategy and logistics they get replaced but the problem won't get fixed.

That's pretty much how they seem to have gotten to the point of Wagner mutinying in the first place. They were supposed to be folded into the regular military by the end of this month. The whole thing likely wouldn't have happened if Putin had stepped in sooner to settle the whole feud between Wagner and the Ministry of Defense people that apparently had it out for them.

This is the first time I can recall a coup attempt/rebellion that didn't succeed yet the perpetrators got away with it - that is, didn't win but also didn't suffer significant punishment like long jail terms or execution.

Just randomly googling cases of troop mutinies, it seems common enough for most of the people involved to either get away with it or get a relatively light punishment. And I still think that's what we're talking about here. Not that I especially want to go to bat for Wagner and their Nazi-adjacent sledgehammer aficionado leader, but everything I'm reading makes me think this was something they only pulled because they collectively decided it was their asses if they didn't.

[Lord Revan]

I suspect who ever made this call (be it Putin himself or someone under him) was just thinking about their personal authority and status and not the strategic impact, that seems the typical Russian response to issues during that conflict if someone complains or reveals (either intentionally or unintentionally) the effects of poor strategy and logistics they get replaced but the problem won't get fixed.

That's pretty much how they seem to have gotten to the point of Wagner mutinying in the first place. They were supposed to be folded into the regular military by the end of this month. The whole thing likely wouldn't have happened if Putin had stepped in sooner to settle the whole feud between Wagner and the Ministry of Defense people that apparently had it out for them.

Never said it was the smart thing, just that it seems to be that got Russia into this mess (in more ways then one) the first place.

People were just thinking of what they could gain in the (in hindsight totally unrealistic) best case scenario and not thinking what it might cost or how to do it properly.

It does make wonder if the rumors that Finland might next on the list within 2-5 years are really that sound, seeing as unlike with Ukraine there would the facts that a) Finland is in NATO and b) Ukraine will probably not just fiddle their collective thumbs if Russia starts pulling troops for a potential attack towards Finland.

[Rogue 9]

Finland is almost certainly not going to be next now; that's the entire point of joining NATO. That possibility was on the table before Finland applied for and got NATO membership.

[Ralin]

Presumably the Wagner units who've been punted to Belarus are the ones whose loyalties are still in question, so they've been shunted somewhere they can't do as much direct damage when the next pay dispute happens. Not exactly ideal, but I suppose Russia's not really in a position to have them all shot as deserters.

I think it's more likely those are the lifers who have been with Wagner for years and the group can least afford to lose if they want to survive as an organization.