[What if] Pearl Harbour and the Pacific.

[Patrick Degan]

The Midway Operation, in and of itself, burned up half a year's fuel alloation for the Combined Fleet. The strain on resources was so great that the Imperial Navy actually had to suspend operations for an entire month following that debacle, and directly contributed to their inability to field sufficent naval forces to win at Guadalcanal through the remainder of 1942. A conquest of Hawaii would have been untenable. The purely diversionary Aleutians invasion only drained their resources further, and after the Guadalcanal bloodletting began in earnest, the Imperial General Staff didn't feed in any more men or materiél than they absolutely had to in order to maintain their toehold on Attu and Kiska in the vain hope that the Americans would shift resources to expelling them from North American soil as soon as possible. By any accounting, Japan was woefully unable to pursue a war with the United States, no matter what year it might have eventually occurred in.

If the Japanese were not going to attack Pearl Harbour, they would not have been able to expect to strike the Philippines and not face war with America as a result; the one precludes the other. The only way the Japanese avoid a war with the United States is to take the risk that their conquest of the Dutch East Indies will not be opposed if they leave American interests unmolested. Which means not invading the Philippines and thus no attack on Pearl. They might have attempted to negotiate a non-aggression treaty with the United States had they not made the mistake of signing on to the Axis partnership with Hitler in the first place. With the neutrality pact, however, this would leave Roosevelt a free hand to act against Nazi Germany without worry about a Pacific war at an inconvenient time, while freeing Japan from the same problem so long as it was engaged in its China War.

As for a future conflict, assuming History taking a different course, there may never have been a war with the United States if Imperial Japan is bled white in the effort to conquer China.

[Coyote]

Perhaps, Glocksman... but don't forget the rabid isolationist movcement in the US. A sneak attack directly on the US fleet, peacefully anchored at Pearl Harbor, is one thing-- but if Japan attacks the Phillipines and the US decleares war, many people would argue against it. Especially if the Japanese immediately tell the US to stay out of it so IJ can concentrate on China and 'Communism'.

It would throw US public opinion into divided camps, more so than before (although it is true that the hawks would have a stronger voice due to the threat presented by Japan). How many Americans would want to die for a bunch of 'dirty ragged Filipinos'? A clever Japanese foreign minister would play up the dangers (far away, far from home, tropical diseases) and socio-political entanglements (the US had a hard time fighting the 'ungrateful' Moros).

Plus, Germany was still seen as the greater threat, and on top of that if the US wanted to declare war, and their ships were quickly sunk (again, if I was running the show instead of the meatheads, for example, that ran their submarine forces) they'd find themselves at war with a IJN that could exert control over most of the Pacific as far as the US western coastline.

In the long run, Japan's 'Asia for Asians' policy would stir up trouble for them, as it would run counter to US interests, but if they could buy time and keep the battle confined to rhetoric and economic maneuvering until Manchuria was secured and other resource areas pacified, then they could eventually turn to the West with a greater foothold.

[Bartman]

Had I been in charge of the Japanese war plans, I'd've had subs waiting off the Hawaiian Islands and several battle groups tasked to the area. Then attack the Phillippines-- if the US makes bellicose comments but nothing else; fine. But if they declare war, make them to come to me at the end of their logistical chain...

Have the subs and surface groups harry them so that it will be a battered and demoralized fleet that reaches the Phillipines; have other sub groups take out any supply vessels generating out of San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle, etc. Basically apply what the Germans had learned in the Atlantic seaboard.

If the US fleet is sunk out by the Phillipines, in the high seas, it would be unrecoverable/unsalvageable. They were still thinking in terms of the battleship being the prime strike arm, so they may well have made similar erroneous assumptions about the Imperial Japanese fleet... Make sure carriers go to the bottom first so even if the Yanks catch on to the new way of war on the high seas, it'll be too late. Then send the battleships down, or as they present themselves if they get aggressive with the carriers. Additional sub screens will help with this...

Well this was largely the pre-war plan. The Japanese plan called for a glorious 'decisive' battle somewhere around the Carolines or Philippines. The idea was that in war the US fleet would sail out in full strength and head to the Philippines. This fleet would be harried by Japanese subs, cruisers and carriers. The battered fleet would then be engaged and destroyed by the main Japanese fleet.

When the plan for actual operations came together, they realized they had a problem. They couldn't afford to allow all their naval assets to sit around waiting for the Americans to come to them. All of their invasion plans required significant naval assets. And they didn't have enough assets to invade the southern resource area, secure the flanks (Indochina and the Philippines) and engage the American Pacific fleet. So they came up with the best availible plan, neutralize the Americans and then release the ships to other duties.

Tactically speaking it was an audatious and wildly successful plan. In the larger scope of things however there is no way Japan could win a naval war against the US in the '40s. The only rational course of action would have been to reign in the military and find a way to peacfully co-exist with the US.

[Xisiqomelir]

the US was only moderatly concerned about Russian Communism at that point (compared to the later hysteria and Red Scare)

I don't think the American reaction to Communism at any period of the 20th century could be called "hysterical". It really is a very hateful ideology, and, like smallpox, the sooner it's off the face of the Earth completely, the better.

[Bartman]

Perhaps, Glocksman... but don't forget the rabid isolationist movcement in the US. A sneak attack directly on the US fleet, peacefully anchored at Pearl Harbor, is one thing-- but if Japan attacks the Phillipines and the US decleares war, many people would argue against it.

Umm, why would a raid on one US territory (Hawaii, not yet a state), that no one had ever heard of, cause a war, while an invasion of a different and far more significant US territory not cause a war? In '41 the Philippines were a major US holding. They were scheduled to become fully independant, but that had not yet happened. Are you seriously suggesting that the destruction of the Asiatic fleet with 15 warships + 17 subs, the Far East Air Force with 300 planes, and 11 Army divisions would be something that even the most sincere isolationist wouldn't want to avenge? In '41 the Philippines were American soil, garrisoned by 100,000+ American troops. There is no way the Japanes could gain the Philippines without a war with the US

[Coyote]

Attacking the US forces directly (I actually forgot how deeply involved we were there, I was thinking that the independence movement was pretty much a done deal) would have brought war with the US... But I wonder if there was some way to politically manipulate the situation so that the Japanese would insist that US troops leave the area?

Probably not...it could have been played out over time with politics but it would have taken too long.

In that case, Japan would have to find some way to bypass the Phillipines or isolate the garrison there without attacking/harming anyone. Perhaps keeping out of the fight in the first place would be even better; maintain forces for China while making friendly noises to the US, at least for now.

Let the Americans think that Germany was the greater threat (not hard to do) and perhaps even let them draw off some of their fleet for AStlantic theatre duty (a gamble). Maybe even, at the same time, stir up a bit of Filipino impatience to get the Yanks out. Then hit 'em hard once US forces leave the area.

The secret is to get rid of the US fleet in an area where it cannot be recovered. Pearl Harbor allowed for nearly full salvage. Maybe keep patient with the Phillipines, let the US draw away if we can convince them that Japan's interests lie only with fighting Asian communism, and let them bleed off some of their fleet for Atlantic fighting.

[Glocksman]

But I wonder if there was some way to politically manipulate the situation so that the Japanese would insist that US troops leave the area?

They could have just waited. The US had scheduled Philippine independence for 1946.

Other than that, FDR would simply have told the Japanese to get stuffed (more diplomatically of course).

[Bartman]

The problem Coyote is that the Americans were going in the opposite direction. The plan called for more than doubling the military presence in the Philippines by mid '42. All supported by the Philippines who largely had control of the civilian government anyway. And the purpose of this military force was to directly oppose the Japanese. The feeling was that it would be 'immoral' to give the Philippnes political freedom without insuring that they would not be gobbled up by some other colonial power, namely the Japanese. The Rosevelt government was adopting a very hard line against Japanese aggression. Unless the Japanese were to renounce agression and withdraw to pre-'37 borders I don't see how war could have been avoided.

The secret is to get rid of the US fleet in an area where it cannot be recovered. Pearl Harbor allowed for nearly full salvage. Maybe keep patient with the Phillipines, let the US draw away if we can convince them that Japan's interests lie only with fighting Asian communism, and let them bleed off some of their fleet for Atlantic fighting.

I don't think this would matter much anyway. The battleships were of limited use and the US would still be putting 60+ carriers of all types in the water in '43. It would take a miricle for the Japanese to win an extended war with the US.

[Sea Skimmer]

More practically, the need to replace the entire lost fleet would divert resources from Europe to the Japanese war.

Other then a few battleship deployments, most of the US capital units went right to the Pacific when they finished working up. It was destroyers and transport tonnage that Europe sucked up. Simply completing all the battleships and carriers that where historically canceled would make up for the loss of the Pacific fleet, and the US could manage that.

Hell, the IJN could have sunk every ship in the American fleet and still have been outgunned by 1943. To take out everything America had or built during WW2 Japan would have needed a kill ratio of about four to zero. Fat fucking chance of that happening, not to mention America could build even more ships afterwards and pour a vast armada of land based aircraft into the theater in the meanwhile.

A nation with 3% of the world's total industrial potential, an already fully mobilized economy and only 65% of its prewar shipping tonnage requirements simply can't win aginst the US.

[Glocksman]

Simply completing all the battleships and carriers that where historically canceled would make up for the loss of the Pacific fleet, and the US could manage that.

A Yamato versus a Montana would have made an interesting matchup.

Other then a few battleship deployments, most of the US capital units went right to the Pacific when they finished working up.

True, I forgot about that.
Still, the buildup of US ground, air and amphibious forces in the Pacific would drain away some resources from the European war unless FDR managed to stick to the 'Europe first' policy.

[Sea Skimmer]

A Yamato versus a Montana would have made an interesting matchup.

Montana would obliterate the Yamato, the dispairty in fire control and rate of fire is quite overwhelming.

True, I forgot about that.
Still, the buildup of US ground, air and amphibious forces in the Pacific would drain away some resources from the European war unless FDR managed to stick to the 'Europe first' policy.

Likely, though many of those assets which would need to be deployed to the Pacific didn't do anything for two years anyway, and the landing craft shortage was largely artificial. And of course, the US did have a considerable amount of unmobilized industrial capability through out the war.

[Coyote]

The problem Coyote is that the Americans were going in the opposite direction. The plan called for more than doubling the military presence in the Philippines by mid '42. All supported by the Philippines who largely had control of the civilian government anyway. And the purpose of this military force was to directly oppose the Japanese. The feeling was that it would be 'immoral' to give the Philippnes political freedom without insuring that they would not be gobbled up by some other colonial power, namely the Japanese...

Hmmm, true. Perhaps the Japanese could have played up the card of US imperialism. Stirring Filipino nationalists would have been dangerous, though, 'cause the Filipinos would then equally resist any Japanese domination as well.

If the Imperial gov't could work on the Filipinos to kick out the Americans and invite the Japanese in to 'secure Asian territorial solidarity' that would be a master stroke on their part-- but it would be a hard sell, considering the obviously imperialistic aims of Japan demonstrated elsewhere.

It does seem as if the best way for Japan to survive would have been to wait it all out. Let the US build up on the Phillipines become an onerous burden and perhaps the Moros would start up again on thier own... all while playing to US isolationism and ignorant racism about the region... try to convince people that IJ is all about China and not anyone else. Let the Yanks concentrate on Europe while pouring money into a vast unused Pacific fleet for the budget-pinchers to start noticing.

Secure Manchuria and build up more fuel and logistics-- then, if the US still wants a fight in 1946 or so, they face an Imperial Japan that is secured in resources and battle-hardened. Also put the US in the position of making the first move, being the aggressor, to exacerbate domestic protest.

[Glocksman]

Perhaps the Japanese could have played up the card of US imperialism. Stirring Filipino nationalists would have been dangerous, though, 'cause the Filipinos would then equally resist any Japanese domination as well.

That wouldn't have worked because the Tydings-McDuffie act of 1934 mandated the creation of a constitution and Philippine independence 10 years after the adoption of the constitution. The Philippines adopted a constitution in 1935 and independence was scheduled for (and in fact happened) 1946.

The nationalism card would not have played at that time becaue the average Filipino could see the progress being made towards independence and in fact took part in it by voting on the 1935 constitution and by participating in the civil government.

The Philippines and the US in 1941 were nothing like the French and Vietnam during the late 40's/early 50's.

[Sea Skimmer]

Hmmm, true. Perhaps the Japanese could have played up the card of US imperialism. Stirring Filipino nationalists would have been dangerous, though, 'cause the Filipinos would then equally resist any Japanese domination as well.

If the Imperial gov't could work on the Filipinos to kick out the Americans and invite the Japanese in to 'secure Asian territorial solidarity' that would be a master stroke on their part-- but it would be a hard sell, considering the obviously imperialistic aims of Japan demonstrated elsewhere.

It does seem as if the best way for Japan to survive would have been to wait it all out. Let the US build up on the Phillipines become an onerous burden and perhaps the Moros would start up again on thier own... all while playing to US isolationism and ignorant racism about the region... try to convince people that IJ is all about China and not anyone else. Let the Yanks concentrate on Europe while pouring money into a vast unused Pacific fleet for the budget-pinchers to start noticing.

Secure Manchuria and build up more fuel and logistics-- then, if the US still wants a fight in 1946 or so, they face an Imperial Japan that is secured in resources and battle-hardened. Also put the US in the position of making the first move, being the aggressor, to exacerbate domestic protest.

That's not going to work, since the Philippines where already slated to be granted independence in 1946 and in 1941 had a considerable level of control over their country already, they had there own army and air force and a navy was planned.

By 1942 the Philippines army would have had over a half million men under arms, fifty PT boats and a couple hundred planes. America would be supporting that force with about 350 fighters and 350 B-17's along with a half dozen cruises and around 30 destroyers. Japan would have stood no chance in an invasion, even if they could secure control of the air by committing the full weight of their carrier forces.

Anyway, historically Japan did try to play the nationalisiom card and granted the Philippines "independence" in 1943. It didn't work. The brutality which was an integral part of every Japanese solider and officers training made public relations impossible to say the least.




Any attempt to build up Japan is impossible. There economy STARTED the war fully mobilized with 65% of the GDP going to defense. It's totally impossible for them to expand their economy or develop captured resources. Japan had 3% of the worlds industrial potential, and needed 4.5 million tons of British, American and Dutch shipping to support it. America had more like 50% and in 1941 was building more warships then the IJN had total.

Japan had to attack in late 1941 or its economy would have collapsed, it can't do so without attacking America, and it has no hope in hell of defeating that nation.

The nation began digging its own grave in 1931