Trouble in South Ossetia escalates

[Ender]

Of course, now the Russians can pull back while their auxiliaries do the dirty work.

Odd, though, that the Chechens are going to help the Russians. I'd've assumed they'd take a stand with Georgia against Russia. There must be an even deeper ethnic hatred simmering between those two microstates than between the Chechens and the Russians... who'd'a thought?

This got covered earleir in the thread. The separatist Chechens are pretty much gone - IIRC they number less then 1000 now, and the main force of fighters are now tight Russian allies - Putin paid to put their leader on the throne (as it were) and they are getting a bunch of petrorubles now that Russia is on the rise, so they are pretty happy with the state of affairs.

[Androsphinx]

McClatchy's coverage has, as usual, been better than the norm in the US.

Looks like the US managed to complete their return of Georgian troops without incident

TBLISI, Georgia — Russian forces broadened their crushing offensive against Georgia on Monday, flying devastating bombing runs against Georgian tanks and artillery that were retreating from one breakaway province and pushing into Georgia from a second breakaway province in the west.

Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili, in a nationally broadcast address, said that he'd offered a cease-fire but had been rejected. He accused the Russians of "implementing the reoccupation of Georgia to eliminate the independence of Georgia."

Russian officials said that Georgian forces were still fighting, however, and a Russian defense spokesman said Saakashvili's offer wasn't "worth a penny."

Col. Gen. Anatoly Nagovitsin, the deputy head of the Russian military's general staff, reiterated his government's bottom line: Russia won't cease fighting until Georgia not only pulls out of the breakaway provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia but also signs an agreement never to pursue force against them again.

The United States and Europe also pressed for a cease-fire, without effect.

President Bush used an interview at the Olympics in Beijing to repeat his criticism of Russia. "I've expressed my grave concern about the disproportionate response of Russia and that we strongly condemn the bombing outside of South Ossetia," he told NBC.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice conferred by telephone with foreign ministers from the world's largest economic powers, who urged Russia to accept a cease-fire and agree to international mediation.

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin chafed at the criticism, likening Russia's moves against Georgia to the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq and using that American presence there as justification for Russian calls for the overthrow of the U.S.-allied Georgian government.

"Of course, Saddam Hussein ought to have been hanged for destroying several Shiite villages," Putin said from Moscow. "And the incumbent Georgian leaders who razed 10 Ossetian villages at once, who ran over elderly people and children with tanks, who burned civilians alive in their sheds — these leaders must be taken under protection."

What began as a Georgian offensive Thursday night to take control of South Ossetia, which declared itself independent in the early 1990s, had by Monday become a punishing display of Russia's military superiority.

Georgian officials said that Russian troops had moved out of the western province of Abkhazia into Georgian-controlled areas, seizing a military base and strengthening a second front that appeared to be squeezing toward Georgia's capital, Tbilisi.

Russian tanks and jets pounded Georgian troops until they evacuated Tskhinvali, South Ossetia's capital, and Russian tanks moved to the edge of South Ossetia and toward Georgian-controlled villages there, according to Georgian troops who witnessed the fighting.

Russian aircraft hit the city of Gori, the home of a Georgian military base between Tskhinvali and Tbilisi. Damage was evident on many civilian buildings, which had huge holes blasted in them and were stained dark with soot from the flames.

Georgian troops set up artillery emplacements in fields along the road that runs from Tskhinvali to Gori, and Georgian tanks and troop transport trucks were arrayed along the roadside. Soldiers had cut down tree limbs and covered the tops of the vehicles for camouflage. The troops said they were under orders to prevent Russian troops from reaching Gori and then Tbilisi beyond.

For Georgia, which Russia and then the Soviet Union ruled for almost two centuries, being told by the Kremlin how to operate on its own soil is a bitter pill to swallow.

Vladimir Pribylovski, the head of a Moscow research center, said that Russian officials were teaching Saakashvili a lesson after his military went after Russia's allies in South Ossetia.

"He miscalculated: he did not expect that Moscow would rap his knuckles. He thought it would just stick to rhetoric," Pribylovski said. "But the Kremlin risked giving him a thrashing and is quietly celebrating now."

The United States evacuated more than 170 American citizens from Georgia, taking them overland to neighboring Armenia in two convoys. Additional convoys were being lined up should more Americans in Georgia choose to leave, the State Department said.

The U.S. also completed taking Georgian troops home from Iraq aboard American C-17 aircraft.

[Coyote]

This got covered earleir in the thread. The separatist Chechens are pretty much gone - IIRC they number less then 1000 now, and the main force of fighters are now tight Russian allies - Putin paid to put their leader on the throne (as it were) and they are getting a bunch of petrorubles now that Russia is on the rise, so they are pretty happy with the state of affairs.

Ahh, makes sense. I admit I kinda tuned out a little and followed only very tenuously during the "battle of the ethnic Russian heritage" chapter.

Oh, why fib. My eyes totally glazed over and I went for the bean dip, only to check in later when things calmed down.

Speaking of other groups in the region, what is the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute in relation to this? Does anyone know if it might come up during this, or has it largely been dealt with?

[Darth Wong]

So is anyone else going to admit that they're laughing at the way the American "we're a superpower so we'll do what we want and you can't stop us" neo-cons are now writhing in impotent fury about Russia adopting the same behaviour?

[The Duchess of Zeon]

At least that potential nightmare is over with.

At any rate, now the Georgians will throw those 2,000 well-equipped and combat hardened veterans into the fight around Gori in a last gamble to salvage the situation.

[Darth Wong]

At least that potential nightmare is over with.

At any rate, now the Georgians will throw those 2,000 well-equipped and combat hardened veterans into the fight around Gori in a last gamble to salvage the situation.

How much of their counter-insurgency experience is really applicable to a fight against Russian conventional military forces?

[The Duchess of Zeon]

At least that potential nightmare is over with.

At any rate, now the Georgians will throw those 2,000 well-equipped and combat hardened veterans into the fight around Gori in a last gamble to salvage the situation.

How much of their counter-insurgency experience is really applicable to a fight against Russian conventional military forces?

They will stand firm under fire.

That's it.

[Darth Wong]

At least that potential nightmare is over with.

At any rate, now the Georgians will throw those 2,000 well-equipped and combat hardened veterans into the fight around Gori in a last gamble to salvage the situation.

How much of their counter-insurgency experience is really applicable to a fight against Russian conventional military forces?

They will stand firm under fire.

That's it.

Ah, so the entry wounds will be in the chest, rather than the back.

[Thanas]

There are also the ~100.000 reservists Georgia called up to consider. Granted, they probably will do nothing but be cannon fodder, but street fighting...

[The Duchess of Zeon]

The full Georgian OOB lists 243 tanks but I've heard of only 165 in theatre, I would guess that means the other 78 were in Iraq?

[Coyote]

The counter-insurgent troops of Georgia might be useful against Cossack Irregulars, but... yeah, for the most part, they'll just put up more fight before being T-80 tread grease.

[Siege]

I doubt Russian forces are going to stay in Georgia long enough for insurgents to make a difference. I expect them to paste the remains of the Georgian military, effectively neutralizing the future threat posed by Georgian forces to Abkhazia and South Ossetia. When they've done that there's preciously little reason for them to stay there.

[Axis Kast]

Speaking of other groups in the region, what is the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute in relation to this? Does anyone know if it might come up during this, or has it largely been dealt with?

I don't think so.

The situation has already mostly stabilized in that area.

[Androsphinx]

Speaking of other groups in the region, what is the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute in relation to this? Does anyone know if it might come up during this, or has it largely been dealt with?

I don't think so.

The situation has already mostly stabilized in that area.

IIRC, final arbitration was being worked out by a council of some kind with both the US and Russia on it. So, as with anything else relying on their co-operation, I wouldn't hold my breath.

[Axis Kast]

IIRC, final arbitration was being worked out by a council of some kind with both the US and Russia on it. So, as with anything else relying on their co-operation, I wouldn't hold my breath.

The shooting war is over, irrespective of what happens at the peace table.

The Armenians and Nagorno-Karabakh seperatists are simply too powerful militarily.

According to Wikipedia, the conflict is “frozen,” with the Oblast operating as a unilaterally independent entity featuring all the trappings of an independent state (including a “uniformed military”). The Armenians deflect suggestions of any solution that would eliminate the Oblast’s current status as an autonomous zone governed by Armenians. Azerbaijan continues to sword-rattle with respect to a renewed offensive, and today, the “line of contact” is the site of frequent artillery exchanges. There has been no outbreak of heavy fighting for some time, however. Nagorno-Karabakh controls 9% of Azerbaijan beyond the territory claimed as the ethnic Armenian enclave.

[MKSheppard]

So is anyone else going to admit that they're laughing at the way the American "we're a superpower so we'll do what we want and you can't stop us" neo-cons are now writhing in impotent fury about Russia adopting the same behaviour?

Um. I'm not writhing in impotent fury.

[Flagg]

So is anyone else going to admit that they're laughing at the way the American "we're a superpower so we'll do what we want and you can't stop us" neo-cons are now writhing in impotent fury about Russia adopting the same behaviour?

Um. I'm not writhing in impotent fury.

No, you're writhing in orgasmic joy at all the military hardware and carnage, ya fucking freak.

[Ender]

So I wonder how this is gonna impact the American elections - I bet that this just gave Clark a major boost in potential for being Obama's Veep, as if this continues they will want to portray him as being willing to take a hard line with Russia.

[MKSheppard]

No, you're writhing in orgasmic joy at all the military hardware and carnage, ya fucking freak.

Not really. It's a little shitty war of which there are 1,000 all over the world everyday.

[Coyote]

No, you're writhing in orgasmic joy at all the military hardware and carnage, ya fucking freak.

Not really. It's a little shitty war of which there are 1,000 all over the world everyday.

For the Shepmeister, it ain't war until there's nukes flyin' and glow-in-the-dark babies with three heads a-poppin' out 9 months later.

[MKSheppard]

For the Shepmeister, it ain't war until there's nukes flyin' and glow-in-the-dark babies with three heads a-poppin' out 9 months later.

Not really. I mean if the Ukraine got into a slapfight with Russia, THEN it would get interesting. This? This is the equivalent of a battalion or two fighting.

[Pablo Sanchez]

So I wonder how this is gonna impact the American elections - I bet that this just gave Clark a major boost in potential for being Obama's Veep, as if this continues they will want to portray him as being willing to take a hard line with Russia.

The conflict is probably going to be over and done with before the end of the Olympics with a decisive Russian victory, and I'm not sure most Americans will be able to care about it much past then.

It's a black eye for the Bush foreign policy, though. Who would have thought that founding and putting into action a diplomatic doctrine that says the USA has the right to preemptively destroy any perceived threat and remove hostile regimes from power in foreign nations, while at the same time trying to advance NATO to the borders of Russia and into former Soviet territories, and maintaining a Russophobic foreign policy stance in general, would lead to a reaction on the part of Russia?

Can I characterize the Bush foreign policy as "Speak loudly and strike out randomly with a big stick until it gets stuck in something and you can't really use it anymore, but then carry on speaking loudly"? We antagonized Russia to no discernible end on a number of issues, hung Georgia out to dry when they overstepped themselves, and now can't do anything but whine about it.

[nickolay1]

Looks like another Georgian Su-25 was popped on camera.

http://www.vesti.ru/videos?vid=143742&c ... _id=200176

The commentator stated that this occurred within several kilometers of Tskhinvali, after the aircraft made four attack passes on positions of the 58th Army.

[Morilore]

It's a black eye for the Bush foreign policy, though. Who would have thought that founding and putting into action a diplomatic doctrine that says the USA has the right to preemptively destroy any perceived threat and remove hostile regimes from power in foreign nations, while at the same time trying to advance NATO to the borders of Russia and into former Soviet territories, and maintaining a Russophobic foreign policy stance in general, would lead to a reaction on the part of Russia?

Yeah... no. Not as far as the American public is concerned. We mostly lack the self-consciousness to compare our policies to the policies of other countries, else we'd have a form of nationalized medicine for about, oh, two hundred years now.

Can I characterize the Bush foreign policy as "Speak loudly and strike out randomly with a big stick until it gets stuck in something and you can't really use it anymore, but then carry on speaking loudly"? We antagonized Russia to no discernible end on a number of issues, hung Georgia out to dry when they overstepped themselves, and now can't do anything but whine about it.

You can, but its faster to just say "Be a dick to everyone for no reason."

[MKSheppard]

while at the same time trying to advance NATO to the borders of Russia and into former Soviet territories, and maintaining a Russophobic foreign policy stance in general, would lead to a reaction on the part of Russia?

YES, because I'm sure that all the Eastern European countries want to be in the Russian sphere of influence!