Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

[Crazedwraith]

Everyone needs to shut the fuck up about no-fly zone. Including Ukraine.

Strangely enough the country being invaded and having it's civilians bombed is willing to ask for any help it can and not stick to what you think is reasonable or sensible.

[ray245]

Strangely enough the country being invaded and having it's civilians bombed is willing to ask for any help it can and not stick to what you think is reasonable or sensible.

A no-fly zone is not in their interest. Being nuked as a country isn't going to help them "win" the war.

Ukraine's desire to escalate the war isn't going to help them.

[Jub]

A no-fly zone is not in their interest. Being nuked as a country isn't going to help them "win" the war.

Ukraine's desire to escalate the war isn't going to help them.

Ray, you're coming off like a pissy coward in this thread and only thinking of your safety. You don't want the actions of Ukraine to put you in the firing line, so anything they do that isn't strictly aimed at de-escalation seems to draw your ire.

Get over yourself and accept that Ukraine will do anything in its power to retain sovereignty and that it is their right to do so. Their defense, and any contributions to their defense, will never be the primary cause of any nukes being launched because Ukraine has no nukes to launch. Given that their allies are unlikely to set off the first nuclear warhead any nuclear exchange that comes of this war will be entirely Russia's fault.

I say this as somebody living in a city that would almost certainly be targeted by Russian nukes, I fully support Ukraine doing anything they can to kick Russia's teeth in. If the nukes fly, well, sucks to be me but I can't do anything about that, and neither can you. Stop worrying about shit you can't change.

[Crazedwraith]

Strangely enough the country being invaded and having it's civilians bombed is willing to ask for any help it can and not stick to what you think is reasonable or sensible.

A no-fly zone is not in their interest. Being nuked as a country isn't going to help them "win" the war.

Ukraine's desire to escalate the war isn't going to help them.

Read my post again. Especially 'and not stick to what you think is reasonable or sensible'. I didn't say 'a no-fly zone is a good idea we should totally do'. I said 'I'm not going to blame them for asking'.

Because blaming desperate people who are fighting for their lives for asking for things you don't want to give or using words you don't think apply is a real dick move.

-

eta: Though it is 'interesting' for lack of a better word to me that the no-fly zone is considered the red line of engaging Russia and that some reason Putin won't see fit to escalate over sanctions or giving them arms and ammunition.

[ray245]

Ray, you're coming off like a pissy coward in this thread and only thinking of your safety. You don't want the actions of Ukraine to put you in the firing line, so anything they do that isn't strictly aimed at de-escalation seems to draw your ire.

Get over yourself and accept that Ukraine will do anything in its power to retain sovereignty and that it is their right to do so. Their defense, and any contributions to their defense, will never be the primary cause of any nukes being launched because Ukraine has no nukes to launch. Given that their allies are unlikely to set off the first nuclear warhead any nuclear exchange that comes of this war will be entirely Russia's fault.

I say this as somebody living in a city that would almost certainly be targeted by Russian nukes, I fully support Ukraine doing anything they can to kick Russia's teeth in. If the nukes fly, well, sucks to be me but I can't do anything about that, and neither can you. Stop worrying about shit you can't change.

A no-fly zone will escalate it to an open war with NATO. Most NATO leadership are smart enough to understand that. Call me a coward for all I care, I have no intention of dying because of some idiots actively wanting a nuclear war.

I'm also living in a city that will get nuked as well. Also who gives a fuck whose fault is it when nukes fly? It doesn't fucking matter. Everyone will be too dead to care.

If you want to die for the cause, go ahead and volunteer yourself in Ukraine. If not, shut the fuck up.

Also Jub, fuck you. I am living in Europe and will most certainly be feeling more of the effects of being nuked just as much you, if not even more so.

Idiots like you are probably going to be cause of WW3 more than anything else.

[ray245]

Read my post again. Especially 'and not stick to what you think is reasonable or sensible'. I didn't say 'a no-fly zone is a good idea we should totally do'. I said 'I'm not going to blame them for asking'.

Because blaming desperate people who are fighting for their lives for asking for things you don't want to give or using words you don't think apply is a real dick move.

I'm not blaming them for their desperation. I'm just saying people need to shut up about something that is actually detrimental to them "winning" the war.

Yes, a lot of civilians are suffering from being bombed to hell. But how on Earth would a no-fly-zone save those citizens? If anything, if the war further escalates, then even more civilians will suffer.

Ukarine can win the war by not escalating things. Keeping the Russian army trapped and demoralised, while making the Russian public tired and angry at the war is going to be how Ukraine is going to win.

[ray245]

eta: Though it is 'interesting' for lack of a better word to me that the no-fly zone is considered the red line of engaging Russia and that some reason Putin won't see fit to escalate over sanctions or giving them arms and ammunition.

Because giving arms and sanctions is one thing, actively participating in the conflict will give Russia the claim NATO is now the aggressor and are actively threatening Russia militarily. Most top NATO leadership acknowledges this.

[Crazedwraith]

Read my post again. Especially 'and not stick to what you think is reasonable or sensible'. I didn't say 'a no-fly zone is a good idea we should totally do'. I said 'I'm not going to blame them for asking'.

Because blaming desperate people who are fighting for their lives for asking for things you don't want to give or using words you don't think apply is a real dick move.

I'm not blaming them for their desperation. I'm just saying people need to shut up about something that is actually detrimental to them "winning" the war.

Distinction without a difference.

Yes, a lot of civilians are suffering from being bombed to hell. But how on Earth would a no-fly-zone save those citizens? If anything, if the war further escalates, then even more civilians will suffer.

Ideally, in the short term, a no-fly zone mean they wouldn't be getting airstriked from the air. Because there would be no aircraft flying.

In the long term there may be extremely bad consequences yes. But you're demanding people stop trying everything to hold on to survive by there fingertips to think long term when they may not survive the short term.

Ukarine can win the war by not escalating things. Keeping the Russian army trapped and demoralised, while making the Russian public tired and angry at the war is going to be how Ukraine is going to win.

I think people are being really fucking optimistic if they think Ukraine can actually win this. Bleed the russians for a long time, have a insurgency that forces them out in 20 years, maybe. Actually win this war? No.

We're getting a lot of news about how the Ukrainians are doing better than expected and Russia worse but they're still losing as far as I can tell, just much more slowly than expected.

And I'm pretty sure Putin will escalate the war rather than withdraw from it. I'm not saying we should escalate ourselves right now but it seems a very real possibility regardless of what we do.

[Ralin]

I'm not blaming them for their desperation. I'm just saying people need to shut up about something that is actually detrimental to them "winning" the war.

Because giving arms and sanctions is one thing, actively participating in the conflict will give Russia the claim NATO is now the aggressor and are actively threatening Russia militarily. Most top NATO leadership acknowledges this.

Basing military decisions on what will make Putin/the Russian government angry seems like a formula for losing a war.

What does it matter what Russia will claim? Putin will use nukes or not as he thinks it is in their best interests. I'm not seeing evidence that he cares a lot about justifications at this point.

[Crazedwraith]

eta: Though it is 'interesting' for lack of a better word to me that the no-fly zone is considered the red line of engaging Russia and that some reason Putin won't see fit to escalate over sanctions or giving them arms and ammunition.

Because giving arms and sanctions is one thing, actively participating in the conflict will give Russia the claim NATO is now the aggressor and are actively threatening Russia militarily. Most top NATO leadership acknowledges this.

I know the claimed reasoning dipshit, I'm saying it doesn't make any sense. Why are we sure Putin is going to draw there. He could just as easily claim that supplying weapons to Ukraine makes them the aggressor threatening russia militarily.

A Russian killed by an American rocket fired by a Ukrainian is just as dead as one fired by an American after all. It's still NATO taking a role in opposing Russian militarily. Why does Putin care about the pretence of doing it second hand?

[Bedlam]

eta: Though it is 'interesting' for lack of a better word to me that the no-fly zone is considered the red line of engaging Russia and that some reason Putin won't see fit to escalate over sanctions or giving them arms and ammunition.

I think the issue is less that there is a no-fly zone and more that it has to be enforced, there isn't a no fly zone button which magically stops anything flying over Ukraine, someone has to actively shoot down anything flying so it's directly NATO forces attacking Russians (or Ukrainian's if they broke it).

On the other factors leading to escalation, yes it doesn't make much sense that they don't but they are less emotive. As you've said really is doesn't matter if the missile being used to blow up a tank was purchased by Ukraine or Germany but we tend to consider the one who actively pointed the weapon and pulled the trigger to be the one responsible not the one who bought it or built it. Sanctions could potentially kill far more than the direct war but they feel more nebulous and harder to point to a particular person who is responsible, it's easier to get angry due to one person getting shot by another rather then a million who starved to death due to sanctions.

[ray245]

Distinction without a difference.

Being emotional is not going to save lives.

Ideally, in the short term, a no-fly zone mean they wouldn't be getting airstriked from the air. Because there would be no aircraft flying.

In the long term there may be extremely bad consequences yes. But you're demanding people stop trying everything to hold on to survive by there fingertips to think long term when they may not survive the short term.

There is no difference between short term and long-term when it comes to Nukes. Getting Ukraine nuked is hardly going to save more lives.

I think people are being really fucking optimistic if they think Ukraine can actually win this. Bleed the russians for a long time, have a insurgency that forces them out in 20 years, maybe. Actually win this war? No.

We're getting a lot of news about how the Ukrainians are doing better than expected and Russia worse but they're still losing as far as I can tell, just much more slowly than expected.

And I'm pretty sure Putin will escalate the war rather than withdraw from it. I'm not saying we should escalate ourselves right now but it seems a very real possibility regardless of what we do.

Ukraine will win like how the Taliban won Afghanistan. Even if the main Ukrainian army is defeated and their capital is "captured", Russia has no ability to occupy a country of 40 fucking pissed off million Ukrainians.

Russia has already committed their reserves. Their army is already getting cut to pieces. Their economy is already in ruins. Russia will run out of troops sooner or later, or simply not have an economy that can sustain their war effort further.

Basing military decisions on what will make Putin/the Russian government angry seems like a formula for losing a war.

What does it matter what Russia will claim? Putin will use nukes or not as he thinks it is in their best interests. I'm not seeing evidence that he cares a lot about justifications at this point.

Making Russia angry with sanctions and sending weapons to Ukraine is good military decision. But turning everything into WW3 isn't a good military decision.

Right now, even after pissing off Putin we see no Nukes flying. That's because it's still within the realm of proxy war that we saw during the cold war. A proxy war in Europe yes, but a proxy war nonetheless.

I know the claimed reasoning dipshit, I'm saying it doesn't make any sense. Why are we sure Putin is going to draw there. He could just as easily claim that supplying weapons to Ukraine makes them the aggressor threatening russia militarily.

A Russian killed by an American rocket fired by a Ukrainian is just as dead as one fired by an American after all. It's still NATO taking a role in opposing Russian militarily. Why does Putin care about the pretence of doing it second hand?

Why does it not sense? Proxy war is a thing in the cold war and we never went to the level of nuking each other.

Second. There are limits as to how much Putin can justify support for the war. Here's a key fact about the way the war is reported in Russia.

Putin is claiming there is no war That it's just a military operation.

Why? Because calling it an actual war is not going to be popular amongst Russians. Even a dictator like Putin is still subject to the whims of an angry population.

There is no indication that Russians are actually eager for fighting a full-scale war with mass conscription. The conscripts in Ukraine are already demoralised as it is.

Why is that? Because the whole war in Ukraine is not being seen by Russians as an existential threat to Russia bar Putin and his elites.

Putin is having a hard time selling the war to the Russian public.


The West continuing making the war unpopular in Russia is how they are going to get Russia to pull back its forces. The strategy worked in Afghanistan. No reason why it could not work with Ukraine.

[ray245]

I think the issue is less that there is a no-fly zone and more that it has to be enforced, there isn't a no fly zone button which magically stops anything flying over Ukraine, someone has to actively shoot down anything flying so it's directly NATO forces attacking Russians (or Ukrainian's if they broke it).

On the other factors leading to escalation, yes it doesn't make much sense that they don't but they are less emotive. As you've said really is doesn't matter if the missile being used to blow up a tank was purchased by Ukraine or Germany but we tend to consider the one who actively pointed the weapon and pulled the trigger to be the one responsible not the one who bought it or built it. Sanctions could potentially kill far more than the direct war but they feel more nebulous and harder to point to a particular person who is responsible, it's easier to get angry due to one person getting shot by another rather then a million who starved to death due to sanctions.

Thank you. No fly zone means an air war against Russia. Including attacking Russian air-defences and airbase in Russia.

I don't understand why so many people in this forum are so stupid and incapable of understanding the dangers of escalations.

Russia is a threat. But Russia is unlikely to invade actual NATO countries. The invasion of Ukraine was done because Ukraine was not in NATO. And looking at how well Russian forces are performing in Ukraine, the chances of them actually successfully conquering any major NATO countries is extremely slim.

Putin and the Russian army isn't Hitler and his German army in 1939. The German army in 1939 was more prepared and more mobilised for war than most countries in Europe. They don't have an army capable of even occupying Ukraine, much less the rest of Europe.

NATO collectively still outnumber the Russian army, and its weapons are more advanced, with better motivated troops and almost every other major advantage a military can have. Putin isn't capable of doing a world-conquest like Hitler.

[ray245]

If people are serious about protecting Ukrainian civilians from air-attacks, the best way is to send Ukrainians more anti-air missiles. Right now, Russian airforce do not have control of the skies because of Anti-air defense.

Russian jets are being shot down by Ukrainians with NATO Manpads like Stinger missiles. That is how you defend Ukrainian civilians.

Not some no-fly-zone.

Look at what is happening to Russian airforce even without a no-fly-zone.



Russian can't sustain its air operation against Ukraine, because of logistic reasons and also Ukrainian air defense. That is saving lives.

[ray245]

A good video explaining what no-fly-zone actually entails.

[Ralin]

The West continuing making the war unpopular in Russia is how they are going to get Russia to pull back its forces. The strategy worked in Afghanistan. No reason why it could not work with Ukraine.

The war's already fucking unpopular with the Russian public.

There's some pretty major factors stopping that from mattering enough to stop the war: https://twitter.com/varya_en/status/1499464037708537861

[Jub]

A no-fly zone will escalate it to an open war with NATO. Most NATO leadership are smart enough to understand that. Call me a coward for all I care, I have no intention of dying because of some idiots actively wanting a nuclear war.

I'm also living in a city that will get nuked as well. Also who gives a fuck whose fault is it when nukes fly? It doesn't fucking matter. Everyone will be too dead to care.

It's not like we don't all face death as an inevitability every second of our lives. Even with this war on, you're vastly more likely to get killed by a car or falling off a ladder, and yet you're more afraid of a still very unlikely nuclear war.

If you want to die for the cause, go ahead and volunteer yourself in Ukraine. If not, shut the fuck up.

I might if I thought it would actually help. I don't think people that don't speak the language and who don't have any relevant skills have much to offer besides a mouth to feed. At best I'd be a litter bearer or an ammo runner, important jobs to be sure, but ones which and Ukranian could do as well or better than I could.

Were I in the shape for it, I would volunteer for my country's armed forces, though at the moment there isn't any call for it.

Also Jub, fuck you. I am living in Europe and will most certainly be feeling more of the effects of being nuked just as much you, if not even more so.

How would you feel it more so than I would? I live in a major west coast port city, I'd be within the near-certain death zone if any of a dozen nearby targets were hit. You can't really get much more fucked than that.

Idiots like you are probably going to be cause of WW3 more than anything else.

Ah yes, my opinion on a message board is going to cause WW3...

-----

But you do you, keep posting a half dozen times in a row because that's how you deal with stress. I'll keep following the war and supporting Ukrainian efforts at keeping their nation an entity distinct from Russia and not fret too much over the exact wording they use to describe their plight or if their requests for aid are entirely realistic. There are people far more qualified than I to make those calls, and my opinions expressed on an obscure forum won't tip anything either way.

[ray245]

The war's already fucking unpopular with the Russian public.

There's some pretty major factors stopping that from mattering enough to stop the war: https://twitter.com/varya_en/status/1499464037708537861

It's early stages. There were protest before the body count starts rising and before sanctions starts to really bite. As time wears on, it's going to further undermine support for the war.

It's not like we don't all face death as an inevitability every second of our lives. Even with this war on, you're vastly more likely to get killed by a car or falling off a ladder, and yet you're more afraid of a still very unlikely nuclear war.

Avoiding a nuclear war requires people to ensure things don't escalate to that point.

I might if I thought it would actually help. I don't think people that don't speak the language and who don't have any relevant skills have much to offer besides a mouth to feed. At best I'd be a litter bearer or an ammo runner, important jobs to be sure, but ones which and Ukranian could do as well or better than I could.

Were I in the shape for it, I would volunteer for my country's armed forces, though at the moment there isn't any call for it.

Until you do, you're just a cowardly as everyone else not participating in the fight.

How would you feel it more so than I would? I live in a major west coast port city, I'd be within the near-certain death zone if any of a dozen nearby targets were hit. You can't really get much more fucked than that.

I'm living in a NATO country, close to its capital? I am most certainly in the death zone of a nuclear conflict.

Ah yes, my opinion on a message board is going to cause WW3...

-----

I'm not referring to you as an individual. I am referring to you as part of a larger collective that somehow don't care about the escalation of the conflict.

But you do you, keep posting a half dozen times in a row because that's how you deal with stress. I'll keep following the war and supporting Ukrainian efforts at keeping their nation an entity distinct from Russia and not fret too much over the exact wording they use to describe their plight or if their requests for aid are entirely realistic. There are people far more qualified than I to make those calls, and my opinions expressed on an obscure forum won't tip anything either way.

I can't change the war effort on my own, but I can convince people around me what's not the best way out of this for everyone, including Russians and Ukrainians. Wanting a nuclear exchange fire for the sake for "saving" some civilians in Ukraine is not a good idea. No matter how emotional people get.

You say there are people more qualified than you in making those calls... but you don't seem to be listening to them. They are saying no-fly-zone is a bad idea. So why aren't you listening to them?

[Jub]

Avoiding a nuclear war requires people to ensure things don't escalate to that point.

Realistically, escalation or not doesn't particularly matter. What it takes to avoid nuclear war is the other side having better options than doing the one thing that will ensure their own destruction. Where that line ends up for Russia is uncertain, we can know when they say they'll escalate to using nuclear weapons, but we can't be certain they actually will use them because the people who actually have to launch the weapons aren't idiots and know that launching those weapons will be the death of them.

Until you do, you're just a cowardly as everyone else not participating in the fight.

No, I'm not. Being pragmatic about one's ability to aid a situation isn't cowardice it's not being an idiot. Even if I thought I was somebody with useful skills I can't afford a flight to the area as my location is a significant distance from the conflict zone. I literally can't get to the fight even if I wanted to.

I'm living in a NATO country, close to its capital? I am most certainly in the death zone of a nuclear conflict.

So we're equally screwed if the nukes fly... What's your point again?

I'm not referring to you as an individual. I am referring to you as part of a larger collective that somehow don't care about the escalation of the conflict.

The conflict will escalate or not regardless of what I say or do. I trust that the people in charge are smart enough to know which requests to honor and where the line is. Within those lines, I fully support Ukraine doing what it thinks is best to survive this conflict.

I can't change the war effort on my own, but I can convince people around me what's not the best way out of this for everyone, including Russians and Ukrainians. Wanting a nuclear exchange fire for the sake for "saving" some civilians in Ukraine is not a good idea. No matter how emotional people get.

Where exactly did I call for a nuclear exchange to happen?

You say there are people more qualified than you in making those calls... but you don't seem to be listening to them. They are saying no-fly-zone is a bad idea. So why aren't you listening to them?

Where did I say I supported a no-fly zone? Please, quote me on it.

I said that I support the Ukrainian defense effort in whatever form it takes. NATO, the only body likely to be able to enforce a no-fly zone isn't currently a part of that defense. Thus Ukraine kicking the tires on a no-fly zone isn't likely to lead to one actually happening.

My take is that these requests are an attempt to see how humanely Russia is willing to fight this war and how willing NATO countries are to lend any direct support. These requests aren't an attempt at escalation, but an attempt to see where the boundaries of this war are and what options are open to them. Unless somebody does something especially stupid, these requests aren't going anywhere and don't escalate jack shit.

TLDR; I support Ukraine asking for anything they think will help and I support helping them as much as the nations involved think they can get away with. There's always a chance that Russia gets desperate and tries to do something stupid, but I have faith that the men who actually have to launch the weapons aren't suicidal.

[Col. Crackpot]

Just about about everyone posting in this thread lives somewhere in close enough proximity to some sort of target to be concerned about the effects of nuclear war. I’m straddled in between a nuclear submarine base, the factories where they build the damn submarines and the Naval War College. So yeah I’ll tap out pretty early in the counter force stage before we escalate to counter value. Or at the very best, get to watch my kids rapidly die of acute radiation sickness in the smoldering remains of my neighborhood.

My point? The dick waiving contest of “how close I live to x doesn’t fucking matter. We are all fucked if this escalates so let’s not be so goddamn careless with the no fly zone talk. Russia isn’t 1990’s Iraq. No fly zone = NATO systematically shooting down Russian planes. That is LITERALLY World War III and Russian military doctrine is pretty clear as far as nuclear escalation goes.

Now that they have been humiliated by a former vassal and their conventional forces exposed as a paper tiger they will be even more desperate. Add in the absolute lunatic in charge and take away the discipline that held them together during Soviet times and we have a recipe for disaster.

So let’s dial down the no fly zone bullshit please. It’s not going to happen. Joe Biden isn’t Dick Cheney.

[ray245]

Realistically, escalation or not doesn't particularly matter. What it takes to avoid nuclear war is the other side having better options than doing the one thing that will ensure their own destruction. Where that line ends up for Russia is uncertain, we can know when they say they'll escalate to using nuclear weapons, but we can't be certain they actually will use them because the people who actually have to launch the weapons aren't idiots and know that launching those weapons will be the death of them.

Escalation does matter. What it takes is to avoid framing this debate as a matter of live and death for the Russian people.

No, I'm not. Being pragmatic about one's ability to aid a situation isn't cowardice it's not being an idiot. Even if I thought I was somebody with useful skills I can't afford a flight to the area as my location is a significant distance from the conflict zone. I literally can't get to the fight even if I wanted to.

Not being an idiot means you don't go off sprouting stuff that is actually detrimental to everyone, including the Ukrainians.

So we're equally screwed if the nukes fly... What's your point again?

Because you were being an idiot by saying how you're in the line of nuclear fire as some badge of honour.

The conflict will escalate or not regardless of what I say or do. I trust that the people in charge are smart enough to know which requests to honor and where the line is. Within those lines, I fully support Ukraine doing what it thinks is best to survive this conflict.

The conflict will only escalate when people want it to. NATO is a defensive alliance. If Putin do attack NATO, then yes, there will be escalation. But there is no reason to assume for now there is any actual Russian intention to escalate it to an actual conflict with NATO.

Russia invaded Ukraine precisely because they are not in NATO.

Where exactly did I call for a nuclear exchange to happen?

If the nukes fly, well, sucks to be me but I can't do anything about that, and neither can you.

You didn't openly call for a nuclear exchange, but you certainly aren't supporting an avoidance of nuclear conflict.

Where did I say I supported a no-fly zone? Please, quote me on it.

I said that I support the Ukrainian defense effort in whatever form it takes. NATO, the only body likely to be able to enforce a no-fly zone isn't currently a part of that defense. Thus Ukraine kicking the tires on a no-fly zone isn't likely to lead to one actually happening.

My take is that these requests are an attempt to see how humanely Russia is willing to fight this war and how willing NATO countries are to lend any direct support. These requests aren't an attempt at escalation, but an attempt to see where the boundaries of this war are and what options are open to them. Unless somebody does something especially stupid, these requests aren't going anywhere and don't escalate jack shit.

TLDR; I support Ukraine asking for anything they think will help and I support helping them as much as the nations involved think they can get away with. There's always a chance that Russia gets desperate and tries to do something stupid, but I have faith that the men who actually have to launch the weapons aren't suicidal.

This was what you said in response to me being annoyed about the calls for no-fly-zone.

Get over yourself and accept that Ukraine will do anything in its power to retain sovereignty and that it is their right to do so. Their defense, and any contributions to their defense, will never be the primary cause of any nukes being launched because Ukraine has no nukes to launch. Given that their allies are unlikely to set off the first nuclear warhead any nuclear exchange that comes of this war will be entirely Russia's fault.

My contention is people are stupid. And stupid people will vote in stupid leaders like Trump and Boris Johnson (even though Boris has shown restrain so far). We do not need to support a rhetoric that will help push those idiots into power amongst NATO powers.

I support what the world and the West is doing in Ukraine. I think supporting them with arms is a good way of ensuring they can fight. I think any volunteers that wants to go to Ukraine are free to do so. I think the sanctions, especially against the oligarchs are a good way to ensure Ukraine can find a way out.

But most importantly, I think the only way Ukraine to win is for the conflict to deescalate. I don't mean deescalate as in giving up fighting. I mean deescalate as in coming into terms of agreement that will ensure Russia will withdraw.

Ukraine isn't going to win a war by invading Russia, or somehow hoping Russians can topple Putin's regime. Ukraine can win by ensuring Russians realised the cost of occupying Ukraine is too high for Russians to bear, and they can salvage their economy by withdrawing back to Russia.

Russia is cornered, but most top diplomats and security experts that I've seen and heard in recent days are all saying there should be a way out for Putin. Ukraine wins when Russia withdraws.

[ray245]

Just about about everyone posting in this thread lives somewhere in close enough proximity to some sort of target to be concerned about the effects of nuclear war. I’m straddled in between a nuclear submarine base, the factories where they build the damn submarines and the Naval War College. So yeah I’ll tap out pretty early in the counter force stage before we escalate to counter value. Or at the very best, get to watch my kids rapidly die of acute radiation sickness in the smoldering remains of my neighborhood.

My point? The dick waiving contest of “how close I live to x doesn’t fucking matter. We are all fucked if this escalates so let’s not be so goddamn careless with the no fly zone talk. Russia isn’t 1990’s Iraq. No fly zone = NATO systematically shooting down Russian planes. That is LITERALLY World War III and Russian military doctrine is pretty clear as far as nuclear escalation goes.

Now that they have been humiliated by a former vassal and their conventional forces exposed as a paper tiger they will be even more desperate. Add in the absolute lunatic in charge and take away the discipline that held them together during Soviet times and we have a recipe for disaster.

So let’s dial down the no fly zone bullshit please. It’s not going to happen. Joe Biden isn’t Dick Cheney.

Blame Jub. He's the one that chestbeat about how he is going to be nuked, as if he was expecting me to be in a part of the world where I won't be nuked so he can call me a coward.

What's worrying is the sheer amount of people in the West that somehow believes "oh Russia's nuclear threat is just an empty threat"

We've gone from a cold-war generation where people are worried ( legitimately) about Nukes to a generation that don't worry about Nukes at all.

[Col. Crackpot]

I turn 46 years old this year. I remember being a terrified kid in the early 1980’s thinking the would would end at the drop of a hat. I remember trying to figure out why the USSR would shoot down a Korean airliner and why that meant that somehow we could have World War III. At age 7. I resent the possibility that my kids (or anyone else’s kids be they in Moscow or London or Toronto or anywhere else) may need to face that same existential dread.

At the risk of sounding like Clint Eastwood in Grand Torino, kids today need a damn history lesson.

[ray245]

I turn 46 years old this year. I remember being a terrified kid in the early 1980’s thinking the would would end at the drop of a hat. I remember trying to figure out why the USSR would shoot down a Korean airliner and why that meant that somehow we could have World War III. At age 7. I resent the possibility that my kids (or anyone else’s kids be they in Moscow or London or Toronto or anywhere else) may need to face that same existential dread.

At the risk of sounding like Clint Eastwood in Grand Torino, kids today need a damn history lesson.

But Col. Crackpot, it doesn't matter! We are all going to die anyway! You're just a coward for worrying about nukes! /sarcasm.

[Col. Crackpot]

I turn 46 years old this year. I remember being a terrified kid in the early 1980’s thinking the would would end at the drop of a hat. I remember trying to figure out why the USSR would shoot down a Korean airliner and why that meant that somehow we could have World War III. At age 7. I resent the possibility that my kids (or anyone else’s kids be they in Moscow or London or Toronto or anywhere else) may need to face that same existential dread.

At the risk of sounding like Clint Eastwood in Grand Torino, kids today need a damn history lesson.

But Col. Crackpot, it doesn't matter! We are all going to die anyway! You're just a coward for worrying about nukes! /sarcasm.

That said whatever clandestine shit we can pump into Ukraine and get away with I’m all for. And pay no attention to the AWACS and Rivet Joint planes in Poland. Im sure they are just training and are in no way feeding the Ukrainians real time intel.