Ukraine War Thread

N&P: Discuss governments, nations, politics and recent related news here.

Moderators: Alyrium Denryle, Edi, K. A. Pital

Post Reply
User avatar
Vympel
Spetsnaz
Spetsnaz
Posts: 29312
Joined: 2002-07-19 01:08am
Location: Sydney Australia

Re: Ukraine Uprising/Conflict General (Livestream from Maida

Post by Vympel »

Thanas wrote: This is again nothing but propaganda you are spouting here. The election was conducted under foreign occupation. Russian soldiers were present on the streets. There was no neutral media reporting except Kremlin propaganda. Nothing you say will ever change those facts. Only a liar or a blind supporter of Putin would consider a vote under these conditions as fair and democratic. I hope you are neither.
You can tut-tut about "Russian soldiers on the streets" all you want. Did American soldiers on the streets of Iraq and Afghanistan deligitimise every vote undertaken in Iraq and Afghanistan recently? No? So what's the difference?

What actual evidence have you got available to show that the presence of Russian soldiers somehow made people vote one way or not the other, for example? You got any? At all? All you're doing is engaging in inneuendo.
You can go preponderance of evidence all you want but this is not a civil ligitation. It would be like saying "the preponderance of evidence showed that people supported Hitler in 1936" and you would be correct, but it does not make that election result any more democratic.
And how are these two votes even remotely the same?
And this is not the fault of the west. They did not invade Ukraine, Russia did. They did not seize Government assets without provocation, Russia did. They did not stop media reporting, Russia did. They were not the ones incapable of waiting for the free and democratic election to happen, Russia was.

Don't try to shift blame here.
I've already indicated all the ways the West shares blame in this matter. You can live in a fantasy world where the West is good and just and just wants everyone to have puppies all you want. The reality is they have aided and legitimised an anti-Russian revolution on Russia's borders and in doing so made common cause with a government that includes ultra-right wing fascists and neo-Nazis. That's both a moral obscenity, and a provocation to any power. The reaction of Russia was practically pre-ordained.
Yes and the head of the crimean mob is a mobster who had several hitmen coming for him in the past.
I would assume the head of the crimean mob would be a mobster by definition?
So wait, you claim that Russia does not attempt to destabilize Ukraine as much as possible?
Not at all. I'm sure Russia will happy to deal with a Ukraine that actually has a government that they find palatable. Until then, of course they'll destabilise the current illegitimate one to their hearts content.
That Russia is not attempting to weaken the Ukraine military by illegally stealing their ships? That Russia is not trying to economically ruin the Ukraine with gas warfare?
LOL? "Economically ruin Ukraine with gas warfare?" What absurd inflammatory langauge. Do we live in a capitalist world, or not? Russia is not obligated to give Ukraine gas which it can't afford. Russia has economic leverage over Ukraine and intends to use that leverage to get what it wants. This is hardly the same as "lol we will destroy you with the gas you need".
There is nothing that legitimizes
Oh for fuck's sake. Who said it legitimizes it? Where did I say it was legitimate, anywhere? Jesus Christ.
Maybe it is time to actively engage in politics designed to weaken Russia. I mean, they can't be trusted, so maybe the USA were right all along in containing them and in championing an antagonistic policy. If Russia thinks it will prevail in the long run with acting like this, well, they failed gloriously before.
So basically:

1. Antagonise Russia.
2. Russia responds negatively.
3. Russia can't be trusted!
4. Clearly we must continue to antagonise Russia.

Brilliant foreign policy prescription there - a perfect circle of escalating tensions and mutual antagonism.
All they have done now is drive the EU to closer cooperation with the USA. Soon the USA will be supplying more and more gas to Europe.
Nonsense.

Link
“You hear these calls for us to ship gas to Europe,” he said. “We do not ship gas to anyone. Private companies ship gas. And Europe doesn’t buy gas. Private companies in Europe buy gas. The reality is that North American natural gas is not going to be attractively priced for most European companies. You can approve all the terminals you want. You still aren’t going to get any American companies to lose money pursuing geopolitical objectives.”
And Ukraine will probably join the EU and Nato, something nations like Germany would not have agreed to until Putin decided to act like a giant drunken bear.
You're just fooling yourself if you think that will ever happen. Germany isn't going to go to war over Ukraine. Russia would.
You got high ranking German politicians who dined with Putin before now referring to him as the guy who annexed Sudetenland. You got people calling for an end of supplying Russia with the chemicals it needs to refine crude oil. You got people saying that the US should step in with supplying gas and oil instead of Russia (a real possibility now that the US is producing so much).
As above, it really isn't.
Already close to 7 billion in investments in Russia are at risk. There are people out there that say that sacrificing 300k German jobs in return for collapsing Russias economy is considered a viable option (made much more feasible by the fact that Germany's gas demands for the year are almost already met as the gas storages are filled due to the mild winter).

Nothing good for Russia can come out of this.
On the contrary, I think this crisis is already done. Crimea has been accepted as being pretty much "gone" (and rightly so). All the talk of further sanctions are couched in "if Russia enters eastern ukraine" and similar nonsense. Its just bloviation to make themselves feel better about their geopolitical defeat.
Like Legend of Galactic Heroes? Please contribute to http://gineipaedia.com/
User avatar
Vympel
Spetsnaz
Spetsnaz
Posts: 29312
Joined: 2002-07-19 01:08am
Location: Sydney Australia

Re: Ukraine Uprising/Conflict General (Livestream from Maida

Post by Vympel »

Mange wrote: I, as well as others, have already pointed out the irregularities at that joke you call a "referendum". I have no desire to repeat myself ad nauseum. Also see further below.
Answer the question I actually put to you. I repeat: why is the Crimean referendum - even with all the irregularities you've invented out of thin air that you think deligitimise the result - less legitimate than some members of Kosovo's Assembly simply declaring independence?
What? Please tell me you are joking? It's a violation against international law
No shit, really? What bearing does this violation of international law have to do with the results of an election? NATO's bombing of Serbia was a clear violation of international law as well. Does that mean the Kosovo independence declaration is illegitimate?

This is like pulling teeth - instead of whining about stuff on which we all agree, can you stay on topic?

EDIT: oh, and its totally cool how one of they principles of the June 1999 agreement (Resolution 1244 refers) that saw an end to NATO's bombing was Point 8, which stated inter alia:

"substantial self-government for Kosovo, taking full account ... of the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia"

And yet when Kosovo declared independence in 2008, it was promptly recognised by multiple western countries, at the drop of a hat. So much for that eh? International law! :roll:
Two things: I've already discussed the issues concerning the so-called "referendum" and whether the Crimeans wants to belong to Russia or not is irrelevant. International law doesn't guarantee independenc and the matter should have been dealt with in a legal manner. If Russia was so concerned about the Russians, then they should have taken the matter to the Security Council (or, at the very least, shouldn't have annexed the area against international law).
So you're hanging your hat on a selective application of international law where independence can be selectively approved depending on the whims of certain powers i.e. "international law doesn't guarantee independence". And I'm supposed to be surprised that Russia appropriated these whims for itself?
And I don't doubt that a majority of the Russian-speakers would vote for joining Russia. Heck, in a referendum in 1919, 95.5 percent of the electorate on the Swedish-speaking Åland Islands, which belonged to Finland, voted to join Sweden as the population was afraid that they would become assimilated by the Finnish-speakers after the Finnish independence. The League of Unions decided against allowing Åland joining Sweden and the islands were retained by Finland. But who knows? Now that the True Finns party has gained traction and with incidents in which people belonging to the Swedish minority has been harassed, perhaps we should invade the Åland Islands and the Swedish-speaking parts of Ostrobothnia and fix ourselves a little referendum, huh? No, that's an alien concept (though Sweden should've protested more loudly when the Swedish minority in the occupied Baltic states was being oppressed by the Soviet authorities in the '40s onwards).
I'm not really sure what your point is here.
Right or wrong, those countries, including my own, which have recognized Kosovo has done so under the provision that it's a special case. The circumstances that existed in Kosovo hasn't existed in Crimea and the process in Kosovo took ten years whereas it took ten days in Crimea. While that would be a joke under any circumstances, the Crimean process was not the result of an expressed will of self-determination as the region had been invaded and was under military occupation of another country (a circumstance that the ICJ in its ruling on Kosovo noted violates international law) and with no proper debate, discussion of practicalities, the fears of the minorities wasn't addressed and the "referendum" wasn't allowed to be monitored by internationally recognized organizations. To make it brief: The process wasn't the result of a strive for self-determination, but it was the result of a process lasting less than two weeks in which only one side was able to make its case. Anyone with a functioning brain would realize that.
"Right or wrong certain countries decided Kosovo was a special case" is the very heart of the problem. The issue is this: countries that feel aggrieved by Kosovo do not accept that reasoning and Russia has the power to appropriate the Kosovo reasoning for itself - and it has. You don't get to just say "its a special case" and expect everyone to fall into line. You just don't. Gregor Gysi just gave a withering speech in Germany talking about the Pandora'a Box Kosovo opened, and he was right.

As to military invasion and occupation, does NATO's occupation of Kosovo at the time count? Or was it ok because the populace clearly wanted them there? No serious argument can be made that the majority of Crimea's populace weren't perfectly fine with the presence of Russian troops.

No proper debate? I'm sure the Kosovo declaration was the subject of much debate between the overwhelmingly ethnic Albanian populace, right? Rights of minorities? Tell me, did the rights of the Serb minority get addressed in any significant way by the declaration? You know, the delcaration they didn't even participate in? No, because when you're in the minority you don't tend to get what you want. This should not be shocking to anyone.

The only thing you've got to hang your hat on really is that the Crimean referendum was conducted quickly, whereas some members of the Kosovo assembly just up and declared independence - with no referendum - almost 10 years after NATO bombed the shit out of Serbia. I fail to see how this difference makes the Kosovo delcaration look good in comparison.
Nonsense. Again, the ICJ didn't rule
Who cares on what the ICJ didn't rule on? Russia has taken what the ICJ said and used it. The fact remains that Kosovo's independence declaration has been treated as kosher. Period. The relevant question I put to you remains.
So, there you have it: That caveat renders your question moot as the circumstances surrounding the declaration of independence and the Russian annexation of Crimea which followed violated international law.
Yes, let us continue to pretend the bombing and subsequent occupation of Yugoslavia by NATO did not actually happen. The sheer chutzpah on display is stunning. You think Russia forgot?
You can ask me that question again after you've taken a hard good look in the mirror.
What are you even talking about? Have I ever advocated treating the US as a pariah for all of its transgressions over the years, and all sorts of punitive action? No, I haven't. So why don't you answer my question instead of trying to dodge it, which is getting to be a pattern with you whenever something inconvenient comes up?
I haven't said a word about 100,000 ethnic Albanians having been killed, but I really don't care if it's 1,000, 10,000 or 100,000
Why don't you pay attention to what is actually being discussed? I said that NATO engaged in a one-sided propaganda campaign against Serbia - that is absolutely true. They told the world a fairy tale about 100,000 ethnic Albanians being killed by Serbs - an exaggeration orders of magnitude above the total casualties- from all causes, on both sides, that actually took place in that civil war. This is an uncontroversial fact which you can easily verify if you do a modicum of research.

Therefore, my claim that there was such a one-sided campaign - which you scoffed at - remains true. Thanks for conceding that fact, but admitting that you just don't care.

EDIT: and wow, you don't recally care if its 1,000? Fantastic - so basically, in circumstances where NATO killed anywhere between 500 to almost 6,000 Yugoslav civilians (depending on which figures you believe) nevermind maiming who knows how many more and generally bombing the shit out of an entire country, this is a rational response to 1,000 people being killed in a civil war.

Because Proportionality!

Lets get real here - I don't think you actually believe what I just said. What's more likely is that you - like so many - think of the Glorious Humanitarian Intervention in Kosovo in purely abstract terms. I imagine for the innocent civilians terrorised and killed by insane troll logic like "bombing for humanitarianism", it was a lot less abstract.
as the campaign to ethnically cleanse (if not outright genocide) the area of Kosovo Albanians has been well-documented and recognized.
Bullfuckingshit. You've swallowing NATO propaganda, the same as the average Republican who continues to swear, up down and around, that Iraq had WMD and was responsible for 9/11. The civil war in Kosovo was a typical civil war. There was no justification whatsoever for NATO's bombing campaign, which was an act of pure aggression and illegality easily in excess of anything Russia has done in Crimea. The fact that you dismiss outright lies like 100,000 Albanian dead as if it doesn't matter speaks volumes as to your partisanship and hypocrisy in that regard.

EDIT: "if not outright genocide" implies that there's even a question that genocide took place. There is no question. There was no genocide in Kosovo. Even the UN admitted that. "Ethnically cleanse" is a lovely inflammatory phrase to describe a population being kicked out of their homes whether by a: direct action of opposing forces in ethnic strife (and was something the Albanians would have - and did - do to hundreds of thousands of Kosovo's native Serbs when the war was over), b: a natural consequence of conditions on the ground in war time, but I don't think being made a refugee is a justification for a third party to conduct a massive bombing campaign and kill the shit out of people. The appropriate solution was a political one.**

(Nevermind that NATO obviously bears direct responsibility for the people who had to flee the area from virtue of their campaign, unless you're really going to drink the Kool Aid and tell me that all the civilians could tell the difference between KLA / Yugoslav Army mortar / arty shells and NATO's lovely Freedom Bombs.)
I'm of the firm opinion that NATO acted in good faith and that the campaign was fully justified.
Justified how? Quite frankly - how can you possibly have the sheer audacity to say that with a straight face, given you've been carrying on about international law this whole time to complain about Russia? The civil war in Kosovo was a purely internal affair and the notion that a massive bombing campaign on all Serbia was "justified" is by definition obscene, nevermind how ludicrous the allegation is that they "acted in good faith" when they objectively lied through their teeth, pinning heinous and completely untrue allegations against the Serbs in service of aiding the KLA - an organisation the US State Department itself classified as fucking terrorists!

Oh wait, sorry, you've just said you don't care that they lied. The sheer hypocrisy is just stunning. I can only assume you were so young that it simply bypassed your critical thinking.
And a little all-inclusive anti-Western rant to round off the post with, huh Vympel?
Much easier to just whine that I said something saying than actually rebut it I suppose.

**And to talk a bit more about the political solution to Kosovo, and your ridiculous claim that NATO was "acting in good faith" - no less than Henry Fucking Kissinger - an arch-realist if there ever was one, said of the Ramboulliet Agreement:
The Rambouillet text, which called on Serbia to admit NATO troops throughout Yugoslavia, was a provocation, an excuse to start bombing. Rambouillet is not a document that an angelic Serb could have accepted. It was a terrible diplomatic document that should never have been presented in that form.
Note that the Serbs had already accepted the political aspects of the proposed agreements - i.e. automony for Kosovo. Bombing was never the only solution.

Link on the 10 year anniversary
Though justified by apparently humanitarian considerations, Nato's bombing of Serbia succeeded only in escalating the Kosovo crisis into a full-scale humanitarian catastrophe. It is now widely acknowledged that the bulk of the ethnic cleansing and war crimes occurred after the start of Nato's campaign, with an OSCE inquiry highlighting "the patterns of the expulsions and the vast increase in lootings, killings, rape, kidnappings and pillage once the Nato air war began on March 24". Despite regular proclamations about Kosovo's supposed multi-ethnic character and minority rights provisions, the failure to first prevent, and then to facilitate the safe and sustainable return of, over 200,000 internally-displaced persons (IDPs) is testimony both to the shortcomings of the initial justifications for intervention and the international community's now almost decade-long mission to reconstruct Kosovo.

Indeed, though these much-vaunted humanitarian objectives were used to build widespread public support for Nato's intervention, Strobe Talbott, the former US deputy secretary of state, has written how "it was Yugoslavia's resistance to the broader trends of political and economic reform – not the plight of the Kosovar Albanians – that best explains Nato's war". Placing outwardly humanitarian or security-related motives at the service of political and economic objectives has done much to undermine the emerging notion of the "responsibility to protect" by breeding scepticism about the ultimate goal of such intervention.

Pre-intervention portrayals of the conflict in Kosovo were not, however, a failure of intelligence, but an act of willing deceit; designed to reduce the conflict to terms that betrayed the complexity of a situation involving a previously designated terrorist organisation, the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA), and a heavy-handed state security infrastructure which had been for decades contending with ethnically-motivated crimes in Kosovo. Detailed reports by Amnesty International suggesting that the death toll was in the hundreds did little to deter talk of an on-going genocide. The media and NGOs, meanwhile, did little to challenge Tony Blair's portrayal of the war as "a battle between good and evil; between civilisation and barbarity; between democracy and dictatorship". This tendency to portray conflicts in terms of such dichotomies serves only to inhibit both the conception and voicing of alternative solutions to inherently complicated issues, whose roots run much deeper into history than is often acknowledged.

In bypassing the United Nations, engaging in disingenuous negotiations that precluded diplomatic solutions and manipulating the public case for war, Nato's intervention over Kosovo in 1999 was an important precursor to the invasion of Iraq in 2003. As the region struggles to contend with the environmental and health legacies of cluster bombs and the use of depleted uranium, the 10th anniversary of Nato's bombing of Serbia must not pass in vain, but instead serve as a timely reminder of the need for dispassionate and neutral analysis of unfolding conflicts and their potential solutions; analysis that endeavours to explore the often tragic complexities of civil wars and the nuanced understandings that their transformation requires.
Like Legend of Galactic Heroes? Please contribute to http://gineipaedia.com/
User avatar
K. A. Pital
Glamorous Commie
Posts: 20813
Joined: 2003-02-26 11:39am
Location: Elysium

Re: Ukraine Uprising/Conflict General (Livestream from Maida

Post by K. A. Pital »

Thanas wrote:Maybe. For the record, I wish this whole thing could have been resolved without any intervention and that Putin will not step farther and force Merkel's hand.
But Merkel said she doesn't want sanctions. Either there are bigger problems than 300 000 people losing jobs or... Or I don't know - the West actually wanted Putin to do it. Kind of like "Well, they're bad guys and a convenient bogeyman, but unlike Ukraine who supply us jack shit Putin gives us oil, so if he wants to play King Abdullah, so be it". The sanctions were completely toothless and now I'm not sure they'll go any further.
Thanas wrote:But the only eastern nations that joined the EMU were the baltics and slovakia. So I fail to see how EMU has anything to do with that. In fact, the countries that are in the EMU are significantly better off compared to where they started or are already the top economies in the EU.
And Slovakia is the only one that can be described as doing good. Countries that are in the EMU are worse compared to where they started, with ~50% youth unemployment and 20-25% general unemployment. When a fourth of your people have almost nothing (and as a person who'd seen what sitting on welfare means) that's hardly good at all.
Thanas wrote:True, but let's not act as if the Russian wasteland will be that big of a challenge to a further EU integration. Heck, the EU already stretches over all continents.
Um... which exactly? It doesn't even stretch over Eurasia and occupies just a part of Europe. Besides, common identity only works so far. Russians don't have a common identity with Europe, not any more than Turkey.
Thanas wrote:Heck, Russia was considering a travel agreement with the EU already until the EU cancelled it due to Crimea.
Actually that agreement would've failed. Russia wanted the holders of its diplomatic passports to have the right of unlimited EU residence and the same rights as citizens sans voting. That wouldn't have worked at all and stalled the progress for years.
Thanas wrote:I hope so, but no nation so far has had industry thrive under international sanctions.
Russia and China always had some sanctions against them in effect during the entire XX century, but it could not stop their industrialization.
Thanas wrote:So? For logistic purposes the USA might very well be considered next door as well. Doesn't take much longer for goods to reach the EU from the USA than it does from the middle of Russia.
It does. You are seriously underestimating the speed of sea transfer versus rail. Sea is cheaper, but rail is faster. That's why transcontinental railways are a key UN project. But anyway, that's not the issue. Companies wouldn't want to lose a market for ready goods (Boeings, trains, Airbuses, etc.) and instead face competition in both the Russian domestic market and abroad.
Thanas wrote:Right or wrong, those countries, including my own, which have recognized Kosovo has done so under the provision that it's a special case.
That doesn't mean it's right. Or wrong. It just means those countries, including your own, opened a Pandora's box and now other countries may now use the precedent to supply separatists of various kinds with money and later enjoy the results, because the UN would not care. Not that the UN cared much to stop open aggression if this aggression was executed by one of the UNSC members. This is why I said that unless you are arguing to abolish the UNSC, the proclamations will always fall flat.
Vympel wrote:You can tut-tut about "Russian soldiers on the streets" all you want. Did American soldiers on the streets of Iraq and Afghanistan deligitimise every vote undertaken in Iraq and Afghanistan recently? No? So what's the difference? What actual evidence have you got available to show that the presence of Russian soldiers somehow made people vote one way or not the other, for example? You got any? At all? All you're doing is engaging in inneuendo.
Actually, there are very good reasons to consider all votes in countries invaded by America illegitimate, or at least having seriously injured legitimacy. But I see the point, what is good for the goose is good for the gander. Saying military presence invalidates a referenda or a vote would also mean most UN forces-controlled areas had illegitimate votes (East Timor, Croatia and others).
Vympel wrote:This is hardly the same as "lol we will destroy you with the gas you need".
It's the same thing, but just as above, what's good for the goose is good for the gander. The gas pipe is a tool akin to sanctions, mean to enforce compliance from a sovereign nation.

And now for some legitimate voting in Kiev:
Image
Image
Image

:lol: Gold. Pure gold.
Lì ci sono chiese, macerie, moschee e questure, lì frontiere, prezzi inaccessibile e freddure
Lì paludi, minacce, cecchini coi fucili, documenti, file notturne e clandestini
Qui incontri, lotte, passi sincronizzati, colori, capannelli non autorizzati,
Uccelli migratori, reti, informazioni, piazze di Tutti i like pazze di passioni...

...La tranquillità è importante ma la libertà è tutto!
Assalti Frontali
User avatar
dragon
Sith Marauder
Posts: 4151
Joined: 2004-09-23 04:42pm

Re: Ukraine Uprising/Conflict General (Livestream from Maida

Post by dragon »

Ukraine dolphins to be taken over
(CNN) -- Just when you thought this divorce couldn't get any messier.

Weeks after Russia annexed Ukraine's Crimea region, it plans to take custody of dolphins in the nation as well.

Not just any dolphins. These highly trained military mammals detect risks such as sea mines or enemy scuba divers trying to slip through. Sea mines are sophisticated weapons that can sink ships and other watercraft.

"The combat dolphin program in the Crimean city of Sevastopol will be preserved and redirected toward the interests of the Russian navy," state-run Russian news agency RIA Novosti reported Thursday.
Ukraine's right sector leader killed
Obama: Russia stands alone

Dolphins are a crucial part of open-water security. They detect sounds and objects in murky waters that human beings can't, making them uniquely effective at highlighting dangers on the sea floor.

Ukraine was using outdated military equipment for the dolphin program and planned to disband it next month, RIA Novosti said.

The Ukraine Defense Ministry told CNN that the nation has an ocean dolphin facility but declined to provide details, saying they're classified.

The dolphin program dates to the 1960s, when Russia and Ukraine were part of the Soviet Union, but was handed over to Kiev after independence, RIA Novosti said.

The U.S. Navy in San Diego also trains dolphins and sea lions to help protect its assets and find dangerous objects underwater.

Tensions between Moscow and Kiev have escalated since Russia reclaimed the Crimea region after a referendum this month that overwhelmingly supported the annexation. The United States and its allies have pledged to isolate Russia for its actions.

Ukraine also has combat sea lions that operate under the same base. It's unclear whether they'll be barking allegiances to Moscow or Kiev.
link
"There are very few problems that cannot be solved by the suitable application of photon torpedoes
User avatar
Vympel
Spetsnaz
Spetsnaz
Posts: 29312
Joined: 2002-07-19 01:08am
Location: Sydney Australia

Re: Ukraine Uprising/Conflict General (Livestream from Maida

Post by Vympel »

It's the same thing, but just as above, what's good for the goose is good for the gander. The gas pipe is a tool akin to sanctions, mean to enforce compliance from a sovereign nation.
True. However I was using the word "destroy" in a much more 'immediate' sense (with the killing and the high explosives and the destruction of central government and what not).
And now for some legitimate voting in Kiev:
Image
Image
Image

:lol: Gold. Pure gold.
:D I saw that a while ago. One thing that's fascinating about this whole thing is that more than once I've seen Western diplomats / leaders chide about the importance of Ukraine's "democratically elected" government. The two possibilities are:

1. They know full well its not democratically elected and are just engaging in propaganda for their domestic audience; or
2. Are so clueless that they use "democratically elected" as shorthand for "government we can do business with".

EDIT:

Obama tries to distinguish Iraq from Crimea - makes fool of himself.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5uXsVH4JIWY

Crimea: 1-3 dead depending. Worse crime than Iraq, with hundreds of thousands dead. Genius.

(the part where he says that America didn't invade Iraq for its own gain is just .... oh man)
Like Legend of Galactic Heroes? Please contribute to http://gineipaedia.com/
User avatar
Mange
Sith Marauder
Posts: 4179
Joined: 2004-03-26 01:31pm
Location: Somewhere in the GFFA

Re: Ukraine Uprising/Conflict General (Livestream from Maida

Post by Mange »

I'll reply to your post later, but I thought this needed some special attention:
Vympel wrote::D I saw that a while ago. One thing that's fascinating about this whole thing is that more than once I've seen Western diplomats / leaders chide about the importance of Ukraine's "democratically elected" government. The two possibilities are:

1. They know full well its not democratically elected and are just engaging in propaganda for their domestic audience; or
2. Are so clueless that they use "democratically elected" as shorthand for "government we can do business with".
The Ukrainian parliament hasn't changed its composition after Yanukovych left and held himself incommunicado after which he was ousted. The current interim government was voted on and decided by the democratically elected members of the Rada and thus it was installed after a democratic process. And again: It's an interim government. The composition of the government can only be established after the (early) parliamentary elections (after which, hopefully, the extremists will lose their seats in the government, but unfortunately, the course of action taken by Russia only serves to strengthen such elements).
User avatar
K. A. Pital
Glamorous Commie
Posts: 20813
Joined: 2003-02-26 11:39am
Location: Elysium

Re: Ukraine Uprising/Conflict General (Livestream from Maida

Post by K. A. Pital »

Mange wrote:The current interim government was voted on and decided by the democratically elected members of the Rada and thus it was installed after a democratic process.
The photos above show clearly that this is a lie.

For trolling purposes:
Image
Lì ci sono chiese, macerie, moschee e questure, lì frontiere, prezzi inaccessibile e freddure
Lì paludi, minacce, cecchini coi fucili, documenti, file notturne e clandestini
Qui incontri, lotte, passi sincronizzati, colori, capannelli non autorizzati,
Uccelli migratori, reti, informazioni, piazze di Tutti i like pazze di passioni...

...La tranquillità è importante ma la libertà è tutto!
Assalti Frontali
User avatar
Mange
Sith Marauder
Posts: 4179
Joined: 2004-03-26 01:31pm
Location: Somewhere in the GFFA

Re: Ukraine Uprising/Conflict General (Livestream from Maida

Post by Mange »

Stas Bush wrote:
Mange wrote:The current interim government was voted on and decided by the democratically elected members of the Rada and thus it was installed after a democratic process.
The photos above show clearly that this is a lie.
What are the sources to those pictures and in which context were they taken?
User avatar
K. A. Pital
Glamorous Commie
Posts: 20813
Joined: 2003-02-26 11:39am
Location: Elysium

Re: Ukraine Uprising/Conflict General (Livestream from Maida

Post by K. A. Pital »

Yatsenuk voting in the Rada with two hands is not enough context for you? You can read the context in the file name of these jpgs, it's in German, but pretty clear.
Lì ci sono chiese, macerie, moschee e questure, lì frontiere, prezzi inaccessibile e freddure
Lì paludi, minacce, cecchini coi fucili, documenti, file notturne e clandestini
Qui incontri, lotte, passi sincronizzati, colori, capannelli non autorizzati,
Uccelli migratori, reti, informazioni, piazze di Tutti i like pazze di passioni...

...La tranquillità è importante ma la libertà è tutto!
Assalti Frontali
User avatar
Mange
Sith Marauder
Posts: 4179
Joined: 2004-03-26 01:31pm
Location: Somewhere in the GFFA

Re: Ukraine Uprising/Conflict General (Livestream from Maida

Post by Mange »

Stas Bush wrote:Yatsenuk voting in the Rada with two hands is not enough context for you? You can read the context in the file name of these jpgs, it's in German, but pretty clear.
Of course it matters! While the pictures looks incriminating on the surface, the context in which they were taken is important. Was the Rada even in session? I know of no parliament in which for example the speaker doesn't check which members are present during a vote and that the number of given votes corresponds to the number of MPs present. Much more information is needed to confirm the validity of the pictures (and I do speak German, but a filename is not enough to confirm for example the date).
User avatar
Kane Starkiller
Jedi Council Member
Posts: 1510
Joined: 2005-01-21 01:39pm

Re: Ukraine Uprising/Conflict General (Livestream from Maida

Post by Kane Starkiller »

Stas Bush wrote:Russia has actually done this before to make other nations join its customs union. The discounts were negotiated by a government that Russia considered allied. Change of government - change of business conditions. The prices have to be set anew every 3 months or so, but even though it's perfectly legal this constitutes economic warfare.
Still don't see how this is applicable to EU which never changed its economic policy on Ukraine based on every election. There is a long standing criteria for any aspiring member and is applied relatively consistently.
Stas Bush wrote:I am not saying secession was the primary reason, but if you secede, you automatically grant the rights to counter-secede. Yugoslavia learnt that in a very bloody way, and I guess many nations will learn it still. Also, of course running secession referendums is generally non-constitutional within the greater nation-state framework. Usually to prevent secession laws are put in place that prohibit secession without the agreement of other regions, making secession impossible de-facto. However, UN legalese which simultaneously upholds two mutually incompatible concepts (self-determination of nationalities and territorial intergity of states) makes such events inevitable.
Who is "you" in "if you secede"? Croatia, Slovenia and Bosnia were republics with well established borders. Serb rebels attempted to carve out arbitrary territories. There is no logical progression from allowing federal republics to secede and extending that down to villages and apartment blocks.
Stas Bush wrote:How can START be useful if it handicaps you in a fight where the opponent just ignored a treaty they signed with you and shat over the agreement you had? In this case the natural idea is to treat all agreements with said state as temporary and subject to change. This is exactly how Europe and US treat Russia: all agreements are temporary and not to be honoured. So no wonder after US 'upholding' of treaties Russia is treating the US in the very same fashion: as a partner for temporary agreements that may not be honoured in the future by either party.
If you face an opponent that has 7 times larger economy and a technological lead an arms control treaty can still be useful depending on exact number of weapons and anti ballistic missiles. US withdrew from ABM treaty which it had the right to do. No one is denying Russia the right to withdraw from START in return. They haven't because of the reasons I pointed out.



Regarding Kosovo while it's true that reports of Albanian deaths were greatly exaggerated ultimatley 5000-10000 Albanians were killed any tens of thousands expelled from their homes. By the time NATO got involved both Serbs and Albanians were engaged in an all out war. The idea that Crimea is a mirror image of Kosovo is laughable especially when one notes that Ukraine never recognized Kosovo.
But if the forces of evil should rise again, to cast a shadow on the heart of the city.
Call me. -Batman
User avatar
K. A. Pital
Glamorous Commie
Posts: 20813
Joined: 2003-02-26 11:39am
Location: Elysium

Re: Ukraine Uprising/Conflict General (Livestream from Maida

Post by K. A. Pital »

Kane Starkiller wrote:Still don't see how this is applicable to EU which never changed its economic policy on Ukraine based on every election. There is a long standing criteria for any aspiring member and is applied relatively consistently.
That's why the EU association was considered the doom of Ukraine's industry. Not that there was much to kill after 20 years of moronic oligarch rule, but still.
Kane Starkiller wrote:Who is "you" in "if you secede"? Croatia, Slovenia and Bosnia were republics with well established borders. Serb rebels attempted to carve out arbitrary territories. There is no logical progression from allowing federal republics to secede and extending that down to villages and apartment blocks.
Crimea was an autonomous republic with vast internal sovereignity since 1991, and clearly defined borders. Serb rebels carved out territories that aren't 'arbitrary' but rather according to ethnic split. Calling it arbitrary is laughable.
Kane Starkiller wrote:If you face an opponent that has 7 times larger economy and a technological lead an arms control treaty can still be useful depending on exact number of weapons and anti ballistic missiles. US withdrew from ABM treaty which it had the right to do. No one is denying Russia the right to withdraw from START in return. They haven't because of the reasons I pointed out.
Just wait. Push some more with sanctions and Russia will leave START. "Technological lead" in nuclear warfare is much, much smaller than in conventional warfare (nuclear arsenal is also much cheaper than a large army, see Eisenhower doctrine), and Russia sure as hell isn't going to fight a conventional war with the US. Just nukes.
Kane Starkiller wrote:The idea that Crimea is a mirror image of Kosovo is laughable especially when one notes that Ukraine never recognized Kosovo.
It is not a mirror image. It is a far more benigh split with minimal casualties and almost zero human suffering, expulsions, ethnic cleansing. The precedent of splitting up nationstates against their will has been set way before Kosovo, but Kosovo reaffirmed that if some UNSC members wish to carve the nation up, they'll do it and nothing will stop them. It was the start of a long chain of reinvigorated separatist movements. Before Kosovo, many separatists felt they'd never have a chance. Now they feel damn good, and they're right about it.
Lì ci sono chiese, macerie, moschee e questure, lì frontiere, prezzi inaccessibile e freddure
Lì paludi, minacce, cecchini coi fucili, documenti, file notturne e clandestini
Qui incontri, lotte, passi sincronizzati, colori, capannelli non autorizzati,
Uccelli migratori, reti, informazioni, piazze di Tutti i like pazze di passioni...

...La tranquillità è importante ma la libertà è tutto!
Assalti Frontali
User avatar
Kane Starkiller
Jedi Council Member
Posts: 1510
Joined: 2005-01-21 01:39pm

Re: Ukraine Uprising/Conflict General (Livestream from Maida

Post by Kane Starkiller »

Stas Bush wrote:That's why the EU association was considered the doom of Ukraine's industry. Not that there was much to kill after 20 years of moronic oligarch rule, but still.
That's for Ukraine to decide. Not Russia.
Stas Bush wrote:Crimea was an autonomous republic with vast internal sovereignity since 1991, and clearly defined borders. Serb rebels carved out territories that aren't 'arbitrary' but rather according to ethnic split. Calling it arbitrary is laughable.
Sure Crimea is a lot more clear cut case. And the borders were arbitrary. There was no clear cut ethnic border. Serbs were something like 50%-60% of the population in it. You could carve out any number of shapes and move the border around and come up with the same ration since the area had a very low population density. After declaration of independence the ethnic minorities were driven away and you had 5% of Croatias population claiming 33% of the territory. There was nothing approaching legitimacy here.
Stas Bush wrote:Just wait. Push some more with sanctions and Russia will leave START. "Technological lead" in nuclear warfare is much, much smaller than in conventional warfare (nuclear arsenal is also much cheaper than a large army, see Eisenhower doctrine), and Russia sure as hell isn't going to fight a conventional war with the US. Just nukes.
Leaving START will hurt Russia more than US since Russia can't keep up with the size of US nuclear arsenal or the expanded ABM this would lead to. In the end it wouldn't leave Russia safer than it is now.
Stas Bush wrote:It is not a mirror image. It is a far more benigh split with minimal casualties and almost zero human suffering, expulsions, ethnic cleansing. The precedent of splitting up nationstates against their will has been set way before Kosovo, but Kosovo reaffirmed that if some UNSC members wish to carve the nation up, they'll do it and nothing will stop them. It was the start of a long chain of reinvigorated separatist movements. Before Kosovo, many separatists felt they'd never have a chance. Now they feel damn good, and they're right about it.
It was benign since Russia was so overwhelmingly powerful and a large portion of local population supported it. If Kosovo was invaded by Albania that was 10 times more powerful than in reality i suspect it would be equally benign. Still doesn't make it justifiable. Precedents for splitting nations, exterminating nations, ethnically cleansing nations etc. were also all established before. What does that mean?
But if the forces of evil should rise again, to cast a shadow on the heart of the city.
Call me. -Batman
User avatar
Vympel
Spetsnaz
Spetsnaz
Posts: 29312
Joined: 2002-07-19 01:08am
Location: Sydney Australia

Re: Ukraine Uprising/Conflict General (Livestream from Maida

Post by Vympel »

Mange wrote: The Ukrainian parliament hasn't changed its composition after Yanukovych left and held himself incommunicado after which he was ousted. The current interim government was voted on and decided by the democratically elected members of the Rada and thus it was installed after a democratic process.
Yanukovych fled Kiev after the Maidan mob repudiated the February 21 agreement and the members of parliament who wouldn't go along with the mob fled with him or were intimidated to "vote" Yanukovych out. How does this legitimise ousting him? And he wasn't incommunicado - before the vote he maintained his status as Ukraine's elected President. And you need a 75% vote of the Rada to depose a President. They only had 72.88%. So no, their fascist-infested "interim" government is not legitimate in any way, shape or form, and to call it "democratic" is a complete mockery.

Of all the mendacious, self-serving lies floating around in this crisis, the implication from certain western diplomats / pols that Yanukovych just magically left Kiev on his own volition and thereby somehow gave up power by default is the most absurd.

(that Yanukovych was ousted on an unconstitutional basis makes the complaints from western governments about Crimea's declaration unconstitutional even more funny)
And again: It's an interim government. The composition of the government can only be established after the (early) parliamentary elections (after which, hopefully, the extremists will lose their seats in the government, but unfortunately, the course of action taken by Russia only serves to strengthen such elements).
An "interim" government that is making major political decisions like revoking the status of the Russian language and signing association agreements with the EU.
Like Legend of Galactic Heroes? Please contribute to http://gineipaedia.com/
User avatar
mr friendly guy
The Doctor
Posts: 11235
Joined: 2004-12-12 10:55pm
Location: In a 1960s police telephone box somewhere in Australia

Re: Ukraine Uprising/Conflict General (Livestream from Maida

Post by mr friendly guy »

Thanas wrote:
Do they have the capacity? Because there are some machine tools you cannot just replace nor can China make them (otherwise they would not import them from Germany) and the same goes for chemical industries. Specialized, high tech stuff just cannot be replaced, not by any nation. I think Stuart did some analysis in the past regarding the importance of machine tools to an industrialized nation and what would happen were Germany nuked right now....have to find it.
You might find this interesting then.

The World Machine Tool Output & Consumption Survey 2013

From the second page
China saw a slight dip in output in 2012 but remains by far the largest maker of machine tools. Japan ranks 
second, with no change in production from the year before, and it is followed by Germany. The output 
from those top three account for 64% of 2012’s total world shipments measured in this survey. 
The largest‐consuming country in the world continues to be China, which installed $38.5‐billion worth of 
machine tools, more than one‐third of it in imports.
China produce $27.5 billion worth of machine tools, imports $13.7 billion and exports $2.75 billion. In summary, this means that China produces most of what it consumes but has to make up the shortfall with imports, and exports relatively little. Note the shortfall China has to use to make up for it still makes them the largest importer, so they are highly reliant on foreign makers eg Germany.

Now compare it to Russia which imports $1.11 billion worth of machine tools and produce only $263 million by itself.

Based on that I can generate a few scenarios depending on what particular machine tools Russia uses, and what China produces.

1. Assume China has not the technical capability to make the particular machine tools Russia requires

In this case its possible that the Chinese could be prevailed to buy the machine tools Russia needs and resell it to the Russians in a hush hush deal for a tidy profit. Certainly if you look at the amount China imports vs Russia imports, an extra $1.11 billion might not be so obvious when China itself imports $13.7 billion and with that number still growing. Certainly well within Chinese capability to pay, which will be made easier as the RMB continues to increase.

2. China has the technical ability to make the particular machine tools Russia requires

Well given that Russia only imports $1.11 billion while China produces $27.5 billions worth, yeah I think they can certainly produce what Russia needs many times over. Russia obviously has to outbid local consumers or China simply increases production to match Russian demand.
Never apologise for being a geek, because they won't apologise to you for being an arsehole. John Barrowman - 22 June 2014 Perth Supernova.

Countries I have been to - 14.
Australia, Canada, China, Colombia, Denmark, Ecuador, Finland, Germany, Malaysia, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Sweden, USA.
Always on the lookout for more nice places to visit.
User avatar
mr friendly guy
The Doctor
Posts: 11235
Joined: 2004-12-12 10:55pm
Location: In a 1960s police telephone box somewhere in Australia

Re: Ukraine Uprising/Conflict General (Livestream from Maida

Post by mr friendly guy »

Speaking of economic warfare against Russia, I want to post some articles for interested members

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/ ... 7S20140321

This Reuters article talks about how Russia could sell to China and talks about pros and cons, with statistics. I will post tidbits but I recommend people who are talking about sanctioning Russia read it in its entirety.
The Holy Grail for Moscow is a natural gas supply deal with China that is apparently now close after years of negotiations. If it can be signed when Putin visits China in May, he will be able to hold it up to show that global power has shifted eastwards and he does not need the West.
State-owned Russian gas firm Gazprom hopes to pump 38 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas per year to China from 2018 via the first pipeline between the world's largest producer of conventional gas to the largest consumer.
But the two sides are still wrangling over pricing and Russia's cooling relations with the West could make China toughen its stance. Russian industry sources say Beijing targets a lower price than Europe, where Gazprom generates around half of its revenues, pays.

<snip>

"The bottom line is that the threat of sanctions on energy supplies from Russia has indirectly strengthened China's position in the negotiations," Nesterov said.
Russia meets almost a third of Europe's gas needs and supplies to the European Union and Turkey last year exceeded 162 bcm, a record high.

However, China overtook Germany as Russia's biggest buyer of crude oil this year thanks to Rosneft securing deals to boost eastward oil supplies via the East Siberia-Pacific Ocean pipeline and another crossing Kazakhstan.

If Russia is isolated by a new round of Western sanctions - those so far affect only a few officials' assets abroad and have not been aimed at companies - Russia and China could also step up cooperation in areas apart from energy.
I have also seen articles like this one which suggests Russia accepts other currencies than USD in trade for its oil and gas. It makes bold claims about the adverse affects it would have on the US dollar, but there are no numbers which makes it very dubious. Obviously if people buy Russian oil and gas that way, there is decrease demand for US dollars, which in turn will make the dollar lose value. However I would have thought that depends on how much trade is in US dollars in the world (for everything), vs how much trade in US dollars for Russian commodities. If the formers is much larger than the latter (and I suspicion it will be) then this might not hurt the US that much. Now keep in mind the US are quite happy to debase their own currency via QE, so I am not sure how much more this potential Russian strategem could do.
Never apologise for being a geek, because they won't apologise to you for being an arsehole. John Barrowman - 22 June 2014 Perth Supernova.

Countries I have been to - 14.
Australia, Canada, China, Colombia, Denmark, Ecuador, Finland, Germany, Malaysia, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Sweden, USA.
Always on the lookout for more nice places to visit.
User avatar
K. A. Pital
Glamorous Commie
Posts: 20813
Joined: 2003-02-26 11:39am
Location: Elysium

Re: Ukraine Uprising/Conflict General (Livestream from Maida

Post by K. A. Pital »

Kane Starkiller wrote:That's for Ukraine to decide. Not Russia.
As far as I know, Ukraine's government was not sure that it wants the EU association - until the rebellion.
Kane Starkiller wrote:Sure Crimea is a lot more clear cut case. And the borders were arbitrary. There was no clear cut ethnic border. Serbs were something like 50%-60% of the population in it. You could carve out any number of shapes and move the border around and come up with the same ration since the area had a very low population density. After declaration of independence the ethnic minorities were driven away and you had 5% of Croatias population claiming 33% of the territory. There was nothing approaching legitimacy here.
Is there such a thing as legitimate secession, though? Even the secession of Soviet republics is considered by many merely an illegitimate nationalist coup and nothing more than that.
Kane Starkiller wrote:Leaving START will hurt Russia more than US since Russia can't keep up with the size of US nuclear arsenal or the expanded ABM this would lead to. In the end it wouldn't leave Russia safer than it is now.
Wrong. Russia doesn't need to keep up with the size of US nuclear arsenal (if the US wishes to run itself into the ground by spending money to outsize the Russian deterrent - they're welcome), it can take the China approach, except with much greater success as a huge deterrent is already amassed. Expanded ABM? There wouldn't be any difference. START does not prevent the US from constructing and deploying their ABM system with comprehensive land, sea and space-based elements. In the end START gives Russia nothing.
Kane Starkiller wrote:It was benign since Russia was so overwhelmingly powerful and a large portion of local population supported it. If Kosovo was invaded by Albania that was 10 times more powerful than in reality i suspect it would be equally benign. Still doesn't make it justifiable. Precedents for splitting nations, exterminating nations, ethnically cleansing nations etc. were also all established before. What does that mean?
It means nothing: exterminating nations and ethnically cleansing territories involves a lot of human suffering. This is why it is wrong. Not because there is, or isn't, a precedent. Russia isn't overwhelmingly powerful; but local support for Russia in the Crimea certainly is very high, that's why the operation was a clear success.
mr friendly guy wrote:I have also seen articles like this one which suggests Russia accepts other currencies than USD in trade for its oil and gas.
That's true. There is a direct yuan-rouble settlement mechanism, which I assume would only grow in importance.
Lì ci sono chiese, macerie, moschee e questure, lì frontiere, prezzi inaccessibile e freddure
Lì paludi, minacce, cecchini coi fucili, documenti, file notturne e clandestini
Qui incontri, lotte, passi sincronizzati, colori, capannelli non autorizzati,
Uccelli migratori, reti, informazioni, piazze di Tutti i like pazze di passioni...

...La tranquillità è importante ma la libertà è tutto!
Assalti Frontali
User avatar
Kane Starkiller
Jedi Council Member
Posts: 1510
Joined: 2005-01-21 01:39pm

Re: Ukraine Uprising/Conflict General (Livestream from Maida

Post by Kane Starkiller »

Stas Bush wrote:As far as I know, Ukraine's government was not sure that it wants the EU association - until the rebellion.
I disagree with Ukrainian government signing EU association treaty before there are elections. At the very least presidential in May. Still no reason to dismantle the country.
Stas Bush wrote:Is there such a thing as legitimate secession, though? Even the secession of Soviet republics is considered by many merely an illegitimate nationalist coup and nothing more than that.
It can definitely be argued whether secessions from Yugoslavia or USSR were legitimate however there is always gradation and there is no one simple answer. For example there were referendums in Slovenia, Croatia, Ukraine, Georgia and Lithuania and secession overwhelmingly passed. On the other hand there was no referendum in Kazakhstan I believe so that would make that particular secession far less legitimate. Carving out new territories where you happen to be 50%+ majority through force comes in much lower on the scale of justifiability. Even so Croatian independence referendum was in May 1991, in June 1991 independence was declared and it wasn't until April 1992 that US recognized Croatia. No 10 day from intervention to annexation routine like Russia.
Stas Bush wrote:Wrong. Russia doesn't need to keep up with the size of US nuclear arsenal (if the US wishes to run itself into the ground by spending money to outsize the Russian deterrent - they're welcome), it can take the China approach, except with much greater success as a huge deterrent is already amassed. Expanded ABM? There wouldn't be any difference. START does not prevent the US from constructing and deploying their ABM system with comprehensive land, sea and space-based elements. In the end START gives Russia nothing.
While ABM and START aren't directly linked US probably refrains from expanding ABM too much. By exiting START and expanding its own deployment of nuclear weapons Russia no longer can expect US to hold back on ABM deployment. I don't know what is the exact risk calculus, is it better for Russia to have US with twice larger nuclear arsenal or equal nuclear arsenal to Russia but also a matching number of ABMs. I don't see why US would have to run itself into the ground to overmatch Russian arsenal both numerically and technologically though, its economy is 7 times larger. It can afford to have both a larger nuclear arsenal and a larger ABM shield. The real question for Russia is whether current balance of strength, which puts equal caps on both Russia and US but allows each party to develop other military systems, would move into Russian favor by leaving START.
Stas Bush wrote:It means nothing: exterminating nations and ethnically cleansing territories involves a lot of human suffering. This is why it is wrong. Not because there is, or isn't, a precedent. Russia isn't overwhelmingly powerful; but local support for Russia in the Crimea certainly is very high, that's why the operation was a clear success.
No that's not the reason the operation was a success. If Russia wasn't so overwhelmingly powerful then Ukraine would move to secure the area and restore its territorial integrity. They didn't since Russian troops were deployed there and they knew they wouldn't stand a chance against the Russian military. There are plenty of locations in the world where local populations wish to separate, they don't usually meet with such resounding success.
But if the forces of evil should rise again, to cast a shadow on the heart of the city.
Call me. -Batman
User avatar
K. A. Pital
Glamorous Commie
Posts: 20813
Joined: 2003-02-26 11:39am
Location: Elysium

Re: Ukraine Uprising/Conflict General (Livestream from Maida

Post by K. A. Pital »

Kane Starkiller wrote:I disagree with Ukrainian government signing EU association treaty before there are elections. At the very least presidential in May. Still no reason to dismantle the country.
Of course not. I also think total dismantling can be avoided, but it's a hard line to walk.
Kane Starkiller wrote:No 10 day from intervention to annexation routine like Russia.
Putin is learning. 1. Actions need to be quick. 2. Need to be deniable. 3. You have to be a UNSC member.
Kane Starkiller wrote:US probably refrains from expanding ABM too much.
Um.. what? :lol: There's no written agreement to do so, and unwritten agreements with the US aren't worth anything at all (just like any unwritten agreement, honestly). The US is building space and sea based ABM, expliticly prohibited by the treaty, and land-based elements are already complete. Deployment has been stalled, but that's not because of Russia. Some small nations don't want it.
Kane Starkiller wrote:By exiting START and expanding its own deployment of nuclear weapons Russia no longer can expect US to hold back on ABM deployment.
There's no reason to expect it now either.
Kane Starkiller wrote:I don't see why US would have to run itself into the ground to overmatch Russian arsenal both numerically and technologically though, its economy is 7 times larger. It can afford to have both a larger nuclear arsenal and a larger ABM shield. The real question for Russia is whether current balance of strength, which puts equal caps on both Russia and US but allows each party to develop other military systems, would move into Russian favor by leaving START.
Of course it would. ABM is irrelevant when cruise missile SSNs are considered, since these operate outside the ABM sphere. Exiting START would give Russia a free hand in restoring and reshaping its SSN fleet towards a nuclear cruise missile deterrent. It would also allow to concentrate on creating a small, but efficient deterrent a-la China, instead of just building tons of weaponry for no real reason.
Kane Starkiller wrote:No that's not the reason the operation was a success. If Russia wasn't so overwhelmingly powerful then Ukraine would move to secure the area and restore its territorial integrity. They didn't since Russian troops were deployed there and they knew they wouldn't stand a chance against the Russian military. There are plenty of locations in the world where local populations wish to separate, they don't usually meet with such resounding success.
Ukraine had no military to speak of (6000 battle-worthy troops). Loyalty of its own military was aptly demonstrated by the Crimean events. Therefore it was not Russia who was too powerful, but Ukraine who was too weak to do anything. A country without a loyal military, and effectively simply without a military, could not protect its territories even if the secession only enjoyed remote support from Russia in the face of military advisors, 'volunteers' and weapon supplies.
Lì ci sono chiese, macerie, moschee e questure, lì frontiere, prezzi inaccessibile e freddure
Lì paludi, minacce, cecchini coi fucili, documenti, file notturne e clandestini
Qui incontri, lotte, passi sincronizzati, colori, capannelli non autorizzati,
Uccelli migratori, reti, informazioni, piazze di Tutti i like pazze di passioni...

...La tranquillità è importante ma la libertà è tutto!
Assalti Frontali
User avatar
Kane Starkiller
Jedi Council Member
Posts: 1510
Joined: 2005-01-21 01:39pm

Re: Ukraine Uprising/Conflict General (Livestream from Maida

Post by Kane Starkiller »

Stas Bush wrote:Putin is learning. 1. Actions need to be quick. 2. Need to be deniable. 3. You have to be a UNSC member.
That's not really relevant to the issue of how previous declarations of independence are applicable to the current situation.
Stas Bush wrote:Um.. what? :lol: There's no written agreement to do so, and unwritten agreements with the US aren't worth anything at all (just like any unwritten agreement, honestly). The US is building space and sea based ABM, expliticly prohibited by the treaty, and land-based elements are already complete. Deployment has been stalled, but that's not because of Russia. Some small nations don't want it.
I am talking about the situation on the ground. I suspect that Russia continuously evaluates the ABM situation and makes decision to remain party to START based on it not out of any trust towards US long term plans. US for its part likely factors in Russias reaction to any expansion of ABM and calculates whether it is worth it.
Stas Bush wrote:Of course it would. ABM is irrelevant when cruise missile SSNs are considered, since these operate outside the ABM sphere. Exiting START would give Russia a free hand in restoring and reshaping its SSN fleet towards a nuclear cruise missile deterrent. It would also allow to concentrate on creating a small, but efficient deterrent a-la China, instead of just building tons of weaponry for no real reason.
I'm no nuclear strategy expert so I won't really go into how effective ABM would or wouldn't be against SSNs. However I don't quite understand your point. You are saying that leaving START would allow Russia to create a small but efficient deterrent. But START simply caps the number of delivery systems. It doesn't prevent Russia on building technologically advanced nuclear forces. I'm also pretty sure that it wasn't START that left fleets of Russian submarines rotting in ports during the 90s. How certain are you that it is START that prevents Russia from constructing a large and advanced SSN fleet today?
Stas Bush wrote:Ukraine had no military to speak of (6000 battle-worthy troops). Loyalty of its own military was aptly demonstrated by the Crimean events. Therefore it was not Russia who was too powerful, but Ukraine who was too weak to do anything. A country without a loyal military, and effectively simply without a military, could not protect its territories even if the secession only enjoyed remote support from Russia in the face of military advisors, 'volunteers' and weapon supplies.
Russia was to powerful or Ukraine was too weak. It's semantics. The point about disparity of strength and Russian intervention remains. You haven't really provided any evidence that Ukraine wouldn't be able to retain Crimea other than your say so. Certainly no evidence that it would be as easy, quick and bloodless.
But if the forces of evil should rise again, to cast a shadow on the heart of the city.
Call me. -Batman
User avatar
K. A. Pital
Glamorous Commie
Posts: 20813
Joined: 2003-02-26 11:39am
Location: Elysium

Re: Ukraine Uprising/Conflict General (Livestream from Maida

Post by K. A. Pital »

Kane Starkiller wrote:That's not really relevant to the issue of how previous declarations of independence are applicable to the current situation.
No, it's not - their mere presence is enough.
Kane Starkiller wrote:I am talking about the situation on the ground. I suspect that Russia continuously evaluates the ABM situation and makes decision to remain party to START based on it not out of any trust towards US long term plans. US for its part likely factors in Russias reaction to any expansion of ABM and calculates whether it is worth it.
Of course it does. That's why I said so far it remains in START, but there are some indications it may go away.
Kane Starkiller wrote:You are saying that leaving START would allow Russia to create a small but efficient deterrent. But START simply caps the number of delivery systems. It doesn't prevent Russia on building technologically advanced nuclear forces. I'm also pretty sure that it wasn't START that left fleets of Russian submarines rotting in ports during the 90s. How certain are you that it is START that prevents Russia from constructing a large and advanced SSN fleet today?
Because the current deterrent needs to be maintained during modernization, it is clear that the number of warheads has to stay high. Also, a useful approach is very low-flying short-range missiles with lots of warheads on mobile launchers, to turn Europe into a nuclear wasteland if need be. Building a sizeable arsenal of those would require registering lots of "delivery systems", even though it is an approach that is necessary to counter the ABM threat.
Kane Starkiller wrote:Russia was to powerful or Ukraine was too weak. It's semantics. The point about disparity of strength and Russian intervention remains. You haven't really provided any evidence that Ukraine wouldn't be able to retain Crimea other than your say so. Certainly no evidence that it would be as easy, quick and bloodless.
It could've been bloody, but the outcome seems to be predestined. Drowning the place in blood would've just created another Kosovo or East Timor. It is good that it didn't happen. It is bad that Russia intervened, but it is good the intervention was swift and almost without casualties.
Lì ci sono chiese, macerie, moschee e questure, lì frontiere, prezzi inaccessibile e freddure
Lì paludi, minacce, cecchini coi fucili, documenti, file notturne e clandestini
Qui incontri, lotte, passi sincronizzati, colori, capannelli non autorizzati,
Uccelli migratori, reti, informazioni, piazze di Tutti i like pazze di passioni...

...La tranquillità è importante ma la libertà è tutto!
Assalti Frontali
User avatar
Kane Starkiller
Jedi Council Member
Posts: 1510
Joined: 2005-01-21 01:39pm

Re: Ukraine Uprising/Conflict General (Livestream from Maida

Post by Kane Starkiller »

Stas Bush wrote:No, it's not - their mere presence is enough.
It's not applicable but their presence is enough? That is a contradiction. Either the specifics are equal or they are not.
Stas Bush wrote:Because the current deterrent needs to be maintained during modernization, it is clear that the number of warheads has to stay high. Also, a useful approach is very low-flying short-range missiles with lots of warheads on mobile launchers, to turn Europe into a nuclear wasteland if need be. Building a sizeable arsenal of those would require registering lots of "delivery systems", even though it is an approach that is necessary to counter the ABM threat.
What is the production rate of Russian submarines? We are talking about 10-20 new delivery systems per year. How does replacing systems at this rate require abolishing START treaty? Is inflicting large amount damage on Europe a goal in and of itself or does it serve the function of safeguarding Russia? There was a large drawdown of both conventional and nuclear forces from Europe since the end of the cold war. If Russian buildup of intermediate and short range missiles prompts a response from US and other European countries by reintroducing large nuclear forces in Europe does this make Russia safer than before? Especially coupled with a developed ABM shield which other European countries could buy into thus leaving Russia to contend with 14 times larger economy arrayed against it. I still don't see that it's clear that Russia should withdraw from START.
Stas Bush wrote:It could've been bloody, but the outcome seems to be predestined. Drowning the place in blood would've just created another Kosovo or East Timor. It is good that it didn't happen. It is bad that Russia intervened, but it is good the intervention was swift and almost without casualties.
All things being equal its better that an invasion is bloodless than not. Although one could say it might still be good that the aggressor gets a bloody nose if only to dissuade it from further such actions.
But if the forces of evil should rise again, to cast a shadow on the heart of the city.
Call me. -Batman
User avatar
K. A. Pital
Glamorous Commie
Posts: 20813
Joined: 2003-02-26 11:39am
Location: Elysium

Re: Ukraine Uprising/Conflict General (Livestream from Maida

Post by K. A. Pital »

Kane Starkiller wrote:That is a contradiction. Either the specifics are equal or they are not.
They are not, but how does it matter? Every situation of secession is unique.
Kane Starkiller wrote:I still don't see that it's clear that Russia should withdraw from START.
*laughs* Hmm, I gotta relay these arguments to my superiors.
Kane Starkiller wrote:All things being equal its better that an invasion is bloodless than not. Although one could say it might still be good that the aggressor gets a bloody nose if only to dissuade it from further such actions.
It wouldn't be Russian casualties if they'd happen, and you know it full well.
Lì ci sono chiese, macerie, moschee e questure, lì frontiere, prezzi inaccessibile e freddure
Lì paludi, minacce, cecchini coi fucili, documenti, file notturne e clandestini
Qui incontri, lotte, passi sincronizzati, colori, capannelli non autorizzati,
Uccelli migratori, reti, informazioni, piazze di Tutti i like pazze di passioni...

...La tranquillità è importante ma la libertà è tutto!
Assalti Frontali
User avatar
Kane Starkiller
Jedi Council Member
Posts: 1510
Joined: 2005-01-21 01:39pm

Re: Ukraine Uprising/Conflict General (Livestream from Maida

Post by Kane Starkiller »

Stas Bush wrote:They are not, but how does it matter? Every situation of secession is unique.
Well this is why you can't use one secession to justify another unless you can demonstrate similarities. Just like with any human action.
Stas Bush wrote:*laughs* Hmm, I gotta relay these arguments to my superiors.
Hehehe. But that's the thing, I'm sure whoever is in charge of Russian nuclear policy is on the case and they have reasons for not leaving START even after US withdrew from ABM.
Stas Bush wrote:It wouldn't be Russian casualties if they'd happen, and you know it full well.
In this particular case no of course they wouldn't be. Generally is it good that an invader can accomplish all of its goals without any opposition? Or will lack of resistance merely embolden him? Will the ease with which they captured Crimea embolden Russians to replicate this in eastern Ukraine?
But if the forces of evil should rise again, to cast a shadow on the heart of the city.
Call me. -Batman
User avatar
K. A. Pital
Glamorous Commie
Posts: 20813
Joined: 2003-02-26 11:39am
Location: Elysium

Re: Ukraine Uprising/Conflict General (Livestream from Maida

Post by K. A. Pital »

Kane Starkiller wrote:Well this is why you can't use one secession to justify another unless you can demonstrate similarities. Just like with any human action.
Problem is, when precedent is set, the only people who really care about 'this being special precedent' is the ones who made the decision to call it such. All the others don't give a damn.
Kane Starkiller wrote:Generally is it good that an invader can accomplish all of its goals without any opposition? Or will lack of resistance merely embolden him? Will the ease with which they captured Crimea embolden Russians to replicate this in eastern Ukraine?
I've got no answers for you here, I can't look into the Great Leader's mind. However, I'd say that sometimes, even if opposition is desireable, ethnic composition makes it impossible. Kind of like with Hitler and Austria, yeah. And Sudeten. They simply couldn't resist (not that even sovereign European nations were good at resisting). Of course, it is desireable, but for that Ukraine should've been a somewhat different nationstate. Maybe more like Kazakhstan or Belorussia. Neither of the two would allow something like what happened to happen, and their leaders made it clear in the recent comments.
Lì ci sono chiese, macerie, moschee e questure, lì frontiere, prezzi inaccessibile e freddure
Lì paludi, minacce, cecchini coi fucili, documenti, file notturne e clandestini
Qui incontri, lotte, passi sincronizzati, colori, capannelli non autorizzati,
Uccelli migratori, reti, informazioni, piazze di Tutti i like pazze di passioni...

...La tranquillità è importante ma la libertà è tutto!
Assalti Frontali
Post Reply