Ukraine War Thread

[Vympel]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4bgtKoYBZVg

The latest VICE News dispatch - I really like these. They are distinctly "anti" Russian, but I think that's the appropriate position to take for any reporter in that situation - the pro-Russian position WRT to Crimea is quite obvious.

The Ukrainian marine (one of those going back to serve in Ukraine - interestingly 460 of 600 men are remaining in Crimea, presumably to either be with their families or serve in the Russian Navy) being interviewed at around the midway point states the obvious:

"It's not a secret that Crimea has always been pro-Russian. They've been dreaming of joining Russia for a long time."

Ukrainian demagogue of the "Radical Party" shows up at the end, delusionally declares they'll get Crimea back. Loyal Ukrainian marines' frustration with their government's incompetence, self-evident.

[FaxModem1]

Ars Techica

NASA must immediately cease contact with Russia [Updated at 19:30 CDT]
Ukraine crisis spills over into historically amicable space partnership.

by Lee Hutchinson - Apr 2 2014, 2:54pm CST

Space

281
The International Space Station Flight Control Room, on the second floor of Building 30 at the Johnson Space Center.
Lee Hutchinson

A leaked memo from NASA HQ this morning instructs NASA employees and contractors to sever communication with Russian government representatives due to Russia's "ongoing violation of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity." NASA Watch notes that this move comes less than a month after NASA administrator Charles Bolden assured the public that the situation in Ukraine's Crimean peninsula wouldn't disrupt space cooperation between the United States and Russia.

The prohibition does lay out a specific exemption for International Space Station operational activities, which is important since the ISS can't function without some cooperation between US and Russian ground control. There's also the matter of the station's crew being composed of both American and Russian personnel who have to live and work together to keep the flying laboratory operational.

(Update: though NASA has yet to issue a statement, NBC and Fox News are both reporting that NASA has confirmed the e-mail's authenticity. Further, astronaut Chris Hadfield has linked to the e-mail on his Twitter account, emphasizing that ISS operations are exempt.)

Ars has reached out independently to NASA's public affairs office to confirm the e-mail's authenticity, and the agency's official response is quoted below.

NASA currently depends wholly on Russia for getting astronauts into orbit, and the collaboration between NASA and Russia has been quite deep for more than a decade. Russian personnel in NASA facilities is a common sight, at least at NASA centers dealing with manned space flight like the Johnson Space Center. The two nations are the primary members of a large—and unfortunately fragile—international partnership that oversees the operations of the International Space Station.

Historically, the interaction between NASA and Russia has been firmly amicable; for the tensions over Crimea to leak into that relationship is truly ominous. If the exemption on ISS operations is revoked, the International Space Station would almost certainly have to be de-crewed (though that action would require the US crew to depart using Russian spacecraft, which would be recovered by Russian ground teams).

Update, 19:36 CDT: NASA has released an official statement on the issue:

Given Russia's ongoing violation of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, NASA is suspending the majority of its ongoing engagements with the Russian Federation. NASA and Roscosmos will, however, continue to work together to maintain safe and continuous operation of the International Space Station. NASA is laser focused on a plan to return human spaceflight launches to American soil, and end our reliance on Russia to get into space. This has been a top priority of the Obama Administration’s for the past five years, and had our plan been fully funded, we would have returned American human spaceflight launches – and the jobs they support – back to the United States next year. With the reduced level of funding approved by Congress, we’re now looking at launching from U.S. soil in 2017. The choice here is between fully funding the plan to bring space launches back to America or continuing to send millions of dollars to the Russians. It’s that simple. The Obama Administration chooses to invest in America – and we are hopeful that Congress will do the same.

The full text of the original leaked e-mail is reproduced below, via SpaceRef:

From: O'Brien, Michael F (HQ-TA000)
Sent: Wednesday, April 02, 2014 9:33 AM
To: [Deleted]
Cc: [Deleted]

Subject: Suspension of NASA contact with Russian entities

Dear Colleagues,

Given Russia's ongoing violation of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, until further notice, the U.S. Government has determined that all NASA contacts with Russian Government representatives are suspended, unless the activity has been specifically excepted. This suspension includes NASA travel to Russia and visits by Russian Government representatives to NASA facilities, bilateral meetings, email, and teleconferences or videoconferences. At the present time, only operational International Space Station activities have been excepted. In addition, multilateral meetings held outside of Russia that may include Russian participation are not precluded under the present guidance. If desired, our office will assist in communication with Russian entities regarding this suspension of activities. Specific questions regarding the implementation of this guidance can be directed to Ms. Meredith McKay, (phone number redacted) or (E-mail address redacted), in our office.

We remain in close contact with the Department of State and other U.S. Government departments and agencies. If the situation changes, further guidance will be disseminated.

Obie

Michael F. O'Brien

Associate Administrator for International and Interagency Relations

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

So, the US sanctions against Russia are now forbidding contact between Astronauts and Cosmonauts. Does this mean that the US, due to lack of capable spacecraft, has ceded the ISS to the Russians?

[TimothyC]

So, the US sanctions against Russia are now forbidding contact between Astronauts and Cosmonauts. Does this mean that the US, due to lack of capable spacecraft, has ceded the ISS to the Russians?

Did you read your own article? ISS activities are exempted (they are the only activities exempted).

[FaxModem1]

Operational activities, after that, and when the American astronauts return home, they're not going back on Russian spacecraft, meaning that eventually, it will be solely Russian manned.

[The Romulan Republic]

This stuff about the space program has alarmed me and pissed me off enough that I'm considering writing to the President and my representatives in Congress about it.

[K. A. Pital]

What? Cease space partnership? Then it is high time for a Russian-Chinese space program - I heard NASA doesn't like the Chinese too.

[phongn]

What? Cease space partnership? Then it is high time for a Russian-Chinese space program - I heard NASA doesn't like the Chinese too.

NASA would like to cooperate with the Chinese, but certain Congressmen made sure NASA is legally prohibited from working with the PRC.

[K. A. Pital]

What? Cease space partnership? Then it is high time for a Russian-Chinese space program - I heard NASA doesn't like the Chinese too.

NASA would like to cooperate with the Chinese, but certain Congressmen made sure NASA is legally prohibited from working with the PRC.

NASA was okay with Russian-American cooperation too. All such decisions purely political, but NASA cannot ignore the political establishment, even though it would've been better for space exploration.

Also, if Russia truly wants to dick around with the US, they could just say "since you end cooperation, there's no real reason to haul you up to the ISS any more, your special provisions notwithstanding", resulting in de-crewing of the station by American personnel.

[GrandMasterTerwynn]

This stuff about the space program has alarmed me and pissed me off enough that I'm considering writing to the President and my representatives in Congress about it.

Yeah, and the official NASA statement about this whole mess pretty much says "Well, if you guys had bothered to give us the money we were asking for, we could've had human spaceflight as early as next year, and we wouldn't need the Russians. Now? Well, now you're gonna get the space program y'all paid for, so give us more money, or you can kiss our asses."

[TheHammer]

The whole situation sounds like the background plot in the movie "2010 - the year we make contact".

[Borgholio]

The whole situation sounds like the background plot in the movie "2010 - the year we make contact".

"This mission, it will be piece of pie."
"Cake, Max. Piece of CAKE."

[Dartzap]

There was a Channel 4 Doc about a month or so ago, which followed a day-in-the-life of the Astronauts on the ISS. Even then they were saying that they hardly saw the Cosmonauts, who kept to their own area. I guess there has been some tension up there for a while. Wouldnt want to be in that car-share on the way home!

[K. A. Pital]

Eastern Ukraine is in uprising:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26910210

Although it remains to be seen what comes out of it.

[mr friendly guy]

So I eagerly await the West's views on how they see the Eastern uprising. After all it was A-ok for the pro EU / pro Western side to storm government buildings and what's good for the geese is good for the gander. Should be totally acceptable for the pro Russian side to do the same thing. Right? Right?

[K. A. Pital]

Rebels in Donetsk proclaim the creation of the once-liquidated Donetsk People's Republic. And a Donetsk People's Army. Guess where this is heading?



EDIT: Proclaimed and immediately asks for Russian peacekeeper forces. Just like I thought.

[Mange]

Well, Russia has 40,000 "peacekeepers" nearby... Let's just hope the Russians doesn't do anything foolish.

[K. A. Pital]

Well, Russia has 40,000 "peacekeepers" nearby... Let's just hope the Russians doesn't do anything foolish.

If Russia just takes over the East, this will quite likely initiate a massive proxy war in the region. I just hope Putin isn't too dumb and, unlike Crimea, will let this independent formation to exist a little longer, like Abkhazia and Ossetia. Then again, those were Abkhazis and Ossetians... These are Russians. Who knows.

[mr friendly guy]

Well its possible Putin could just wait and let things settle down and then these provinces will petition to join the Russian Federation and Russia will say yes. If not, Russia still gains by having a friendly state and further buffer zone.

[Borgholio]

Out of curiosity, against whom would the proxy war be?

[Mange]

Well, Russia has 40,000 "peacekeepers" nearby... Let's just hope the Russians doesn't do anything foolish.

If Russia just takes over the East, this will quite likely initiate a massive proxy war in the region. I just hope Putin isn't too dumb and, unlike Crimea, will let this independent formation to exist a little longer, like Abkhazia and Ossetia. Then again, those were Abkhazis and Ossetians... These are Russians. Who knows.

I really don't think it'll come to that as the situation differ so much from Crimea (and the other examples). This is just a bunch of guys who have seized a local government building and they don't have much popular support.

[K. A. Pital]

I really don't think it'll come to that as the situation differ so much from Crimea (and the other examples). This is just a bunch of guys who have seized a local government building and they don't have much popular support.

They have close to 10 000 men in every rebel town (confirmed independently from a local person whose view on the events is completely unsympathetic and he wants the separatism to 'stop now'), maybe more in reserve and some manpower in local towns. That's hardly "just a bunch of guys", they're the equivalent of Maidan for cities of the East, since these cities aren't that big. Now they're also fully armed since they captured some weapon caches in government buildings.

I wouldn't dismiss such people as nobodies. Of course, since some people were thrown in jail last weeks, the new rebel leadership prefers to keep almost full anonymity, but I'm pretty certain they have a sizeable manpower reserve and trained policemen from disbanded units may also be there with them. It is a force to be reckoned with; if Russia starts shipping weapons through the border, it will just get super-ugly.

[Esquire]

Who's going to be on the other side, though? It sounds like there's a genuine majority, of armed citizens and probably of citizens generally, in favor of Eastern Ukrainian separation, and it's not like the government in Kiev can do much, not against multiple division-sized forces with weapons and (I'm assuming) tacit Russian support.

[Mange]

I really don't think it'll come to that as the situation differ so much from Crimea (and the other examples). This is just a bunch of guys who have seized a local government building and they don't have much popular support.

They have close to 10 000 men in every rebel town (confirmed independently from a local person whose view on the events is completely unsympathetic and he wants the separatism to 'stop now'), maybe more in reserve and some manpower in local towns. That's hardly "just a bunch of guys", they're the equivalent of Maidan for cities of the East, since these cities aren't that big. Now they're also fully armed since they captured some weapon caches in government buildings.

I wouldn't dismiss such people as nobodies. Of course, since some people were thrown in jail last weeks, the new rebel leadership prefers to keep almost full anonymity, but I'm pretty certain they have a sizeable manpower reserve and trained policemen from disbanded units may also be there with them. It is a force to be reckoned with; if Russia starts shipping weapons through the border, it will just get super-ugly.

Well, the rallies haven't been that huge in the three cities (about 1,000-2,000 in each city). And this really is a bunch of guys. I mean, they have no power base, not much popular support and not much other support either (though it's been reported that activists have seized weapons in Luhansk I believe). I don't think it would require much for the police to remove them from the building.

[K. A. Pital]

Um... There were three rows of police there in Donetsk. They did not do anything. In fact, some sided with the crowd that took over the building. Or rather, buildings. The ministry of state security of Ukraine (SBU, their copy of the FSB) has been captured too. Out of the eastern towns only in Kharkov they captured just the administration, in other towns it was the SBU building too.

[Mange]

Um... There were three rows of police there in Donetsk. They did not do anything. In fact, some sided with the crowd that took over the building. Or rather, buildings. The ministry of state security of Ukraine (SBU, their copy of the FSB) has been captured too. Out of the eastern towns only in Kharkov they captured just the administration, in other towns it was the SBU building too.

Apparently, activists (and, from what I understood, a few local politicians) have declared Kharkiv a republic as well.

EDIT: It was breaking news on the Kremlin mouthpiece RT.com less than 40 minutes ago, but now I can't seem to find the story...