Ukraine War Thread

[K. A. Pital]

In latest news - more sliding towards North and South Cyprus (it is a closer analogy than Yugoslavia). Any bets on where the Atilla line and DMZ will be this time?

[Irbis]

Well, the rallies haven't been that huge in the three cities (about 1,000-2,000 in each city). And this really is a bunch of guys. I mean, they have no power base, not much popular support and not much other support either (though it's been reported that activists have seized weapons in Luhansk I believe). I don't think it would require much for the police to remove them from the building.

One - rallies were smaller only relatively. They don't have the luxury the right-wingers had, dozens of millions of dollars in 'democracy building' western grants that allowed them to fed small army of jobless, frustrated young adult males for months. Compared to demonstrations in other central European states, they were pretty big, considering they have to earn a living somehow.

Two - police? please. A lot of these eastern policemen were actually at Maidan, you know. At the side that was shot at, bombarded with Molotov cocktails and stones, beaten with maces by thugs they would be jailing at normal times. Now, last 2 months, they get to listen how evil they were for defending elected government and watched the police officers killed by protesters swept under the carpet to be forgotten. You think they have a lot of love for new elite left? I wouldn't think so.

[K. A. Pital]

Operation "Atilla" by Russia (which will play here the role of the former Empire) will likely start very soon, although it remains to be seen if it will be open or covert.

Ukrainian Army is storming Kramatorsk and the control points next to Slaviansk right now (what a perfect name for the town, I guess the rebels chose it on purpose - imagine headlines about "Ukrainian fascists storming Slaviansk!"). First blood has fallen onto the ground and, uh... war is coming.

[Vympel]

The New York Times rubbishes administration claims and reports that CIA Director's visit to Ukraine was supposed to be a secret. Generally good article on state of Ukraine

Ukraine’s intelligence agency, the State Security Service, known as the SBU, is so riddled with Russian informers that when John O. Brennan, the C.I.A. director, visited Kiev over the weekend on a supposedly secret trip, Russian state news media swiftly revealed his visit and declared it evidence that Washington was calling the shots in Ukraine and pushing for a crackdown in the east.

Even Alfa, an elite Ukrainian special forces unit that takes pride in taking on perilous missions, has appeared feckless in its response to the unrest in the east.

It lost an officer on Sunday to gunfire, apparently from the pro-Russian side in Slovyansk. The force has made no headway since in entering the city, never mind freeing government buildings there from unidentified gunmen.

As with other arms of Ukraine’s security and intelligence services, some members have divided loyalties and seem disinclined to engage in a fight against pro-Moscow militants that would put older women and other residents who support the gunmen in the line of fire.

Alfa, under investigation for its role in cracking down on protesters in the capital during the uprising against the ousted president, Viktor F. Yanukovych, did not deploy, as expected, to remove pro-Russian militants from Slovyansk on Monday.

So the SBU is so rife with Russian informants that the Russians leaked this incredibly dumbassed visit and put the administration in the position of pretending it was never meant to be a secret.

That'll make the east calm down - giving the Russians all the ammo they need to say that those nationalist puppets in Kiev are having their strings dangled by the fucking CIA.

As to a war - I think Russia has no designs whatsoever on the east. Pressuring them into accepting federalisation is what they want, not absorbing the costs of supporting the eastern rust belt.

[K. A. Pital]

As to a war - I think Russia has no designs whatsoever on the east. Pressuring them into accepting federalisation is what they want, not absorbing the costs of supporting the eastern rust belt.

Oh come on Vympel.

Even myself (who has way more reasons to support Russians, you know, being Russian and all that), I perfectly see that there are reasons to "absorb" those costs. The reasons for Turkey to take over the Northern half of Cyprus weren't that clear cut either. But (1) the federalization will later lead to confederacy-like arrangements and finally the separation of Ukraine like Czechoslovakia (a generally benigh scenario, actually, except I think that it won't happen, Kiev won't allow this) (2) absorbing the Rust Belt of Ukraine may be useful to create a land link to Crimea. Spend 50 billion on building a massive bridge (not to mention electric powerplants, etc. etc.) or spend 50 billion on financing a self-proclaimed Republic? The choice isn't obvious.

Russia is a bit uneasy with the speed of Ukrainian Balkanization (or Cyprization - call it as you want), because it threatens some key projects right now, not in some distant future - but they are perfectly fine with this outcome.

[Vympel]

Oh come on Vympel.

Even myself (who has way more reasons to support Russians, you know, being Russian and all that), I perfectly see that there are reasons to "absorb" those costs. The reasons for Turkey to take over the Northern half of Cyprus weren't that clear cut either. But (1) the federalization will later lead to confederacy-like arrangements and finally the separation of Ukraine like Czechoslovakia (a generally benigh scenario, actually, except I think that it won't happen, Kiev won't allow this)

Bah, let Kiev whine. I think Russia is angling to have its western handlers impose federalisation as an out to the crisis. This bullshit EU agreement was never really well thought out. They should've known that Russia not only retained the capability to stir up the east, but they can wreck Ukraine's economy at will. Maybe the Americans with their never-ending-incompentent-coup-machine (fucking up countries since 1953!) won't want to go along though.

(2) absorbing the Rust Belt of Ukraine may be useful to create a land link to Crimea. Spend 50 billion on building a massive bridge (not to mention electric powerplants, etc. etc.) or spend 50 billion on financing a self-proclaimed Republic? The choice isn't obvious.

Its not just the costs of absorbing the east that's the problem (lets call it basically Novorossiya that they're looking at) - I don't think the weak piss sanctions imposed on Russia as a result of Crimea will be on order for that. Ego will come into it and everyone in the west will be concerned about looking "weak". They'll probably be much worse. I don't think Putin wants to take that sort of hit.

[K. A. Pital]

I don't think Putin wants to take that sort of hit.

Now? Who knows. The political and economic elite can turn their backs on the people in Eastern Ukraine who wave their banners right now, but this will be seen as betrayal and weakness. The narrative about Russians being threatened by horrible Western Ukrainian Bandera-praising Nazis has taken a life of its own. Admitting defeat would make Putin look weak... and Putin doesn't like looking weak.

I wouldn't say that the Putin group is terrifically concerned about Western sanctions either. Doesn't seem that way from their reaction to the events.

Besides, it is highly likely that even paramilitary formations can defeat the current Ukrainian Army. I won't place bets, but if that happens, win-win for Putin.

[Vympel]

So today, some troops of Ukraine's 25th Airborne Brigade sent by the coup government against Donetsk defected to the anti-Maidan forces. Numerous videos on youtube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pGW_wXRdDMY

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zydr9M1UKQM

So apparently in the second video, one of the Ukrainian soldiers explains that they were sent in response to orders that said armed terrorists and Russia's GRU was holding people hostage. They were lied to, they defected.

And for hilarity - Ukrainian T-64B allows itself to be stopped by a Lada.

[K. A. Pital]

Minor correction: the tank was stopped by a Niva.

That's an all-road car, not a Lada.

[Thanas]

So I am just wondering where all those guys who totally said Putin would not support stuff in the east or further weaken the country after Crimea are now? Or where those guys who said that there would be no incitement in the east and Russia would totally not use the russian minority in the east to furhter destabilize the country are now?

OTOH, those who said Russia was not to be trusted and that Putin would not be stopped by anything than brute force seem awfully smart right now.

Bah, let Kiev whine. I think Russia is angling to have its western handlers impose federalisation as an out to the crisis. This bullshit EU agreement was never really well thought out. They should've known that Russia not only retained the capability to stir up the east, but they can wreck Ukraine's economy at will.

Nice job, now the mask comes off and all you really care about is Russia getting more power. As if being able to wreck economies and a capacity to stir up shit (guess what, every nation has that) are something to be proud of or even legitimate tools.

[Borgholio]

Question - Is Russia likely to try to expand it's sphere of influence even farther than Ukraine? What is to stop it from trying to annex even more territory?

[mr friendly guy]

Well the financial costs for one. In places where Russia has wrestled influence from other countries, eg Abkhazia, South Ossetia and the Crimea, had large chunks of the population highly favourable to Russia. Trying to annex a place that doesn't like you is going to cost money as you have to deal with rebellions. If Russia tries to expand beyond Ukraine there is only a few places left surely that would have a population very receptive to Putin. Trans-nitria stands out and perhaps parts of the Baltics if the Russian population is concentrated in certain parts.

[Borgholio]

What would be able to stop them if they tried to expand into every Russian-speaking area around them? I've heard some blowholes talk about war but yeah, that'd end well... So what can reasonably be done by nearby nations to put the brakes on Russia?

[Lolpah]

What would be able to stop them if they tried to expand into every Russian-speaking area around them? I've heard some blowholes talk about war but yeah, that'd end well... So what can reasonably be done by nearby nations to put the brakes on Russia?

Economic pressure could work, but none of those countries are large enough to significantly dent the Russian economy and/or are too interdependent with them.

I suppose international pressure in the form of serious economic sanctions and large military bases in the threatened countries could work, but on the other hand those (or plans of those in case of military bases) could just escalate the situation further, and anyways would cause significant costs.

[K. A. Pital]

So I am just wondering where all those guys who totally said Putin would not support stuff in the east or further weaken the country after Crimea are now? Or where those guys who said that there would be no incitement in the east and Russia would totally not use the russian minority in the east to furhter destabilize the country are now?

I said that Putin will annihilate the rest of Ukraine (not Crimea), and he will do it with perfectly legal means, such as making the price of gas for Ukraine equal to that of its EU neighbors and telling Russians in the East to rise up cause ukrofascists. I never doubted that Ukraine is going to be destroyed as a result.

Trying to stop Russia with 'brute force' is about as useful an idea as stopping the US with brute force. Both are nuclear powers in the UNSC. No way to stop em.

[mr friendly guy]

I wonder what Putin's end game is. I suspect it would be the creation of his Eurasian Union, otherwise known as USSR mark II. No doubt he hopes this will provide some counter balance to the west, although one that is greatly diminished compared to Europe and ultimately the US. Hey I wonder whether Putin's sheenanigans will cause the US to pivot to Europe?

[K. A. Pital]

I wonder what Putin's end game is.

There is no end game in the great game for continental empires (EU, Russia, China, US). For colonial sea empires there was an endgame (decolonization). The old form of imperialism is gone, but the new is born, and there's really no end game here.

I suspect it would be the creation of his Eurasian Union, otherwise known as USSR mark II. No doubt he hopes this will provide some counter balance to the west, although one that is greatly diminished compared to Europe and ultimately the US. Hey I wonder whether Putin's sheenanigans will cause the US to pivot to Europe?

1. That union is already created, its expansion and conflict between the EU and that other EU is what is driving the current crisis. 2. Europe is not a 'counterbalance' to the US. 3. That union is only feasible if Russia completes the 'eastward turn' in politics - which it should, if it wants to be a 'counterpoint' to Europe. 4. Putin's strategy is energy blackmail, essentially. The new union would make only 4 or 5% of world GDP, but it would control a fifth of world oil exports and one full quarter of world natural gas production, if not more. But considering China was considered an emerging superpower with 12% of world GDP, I'm pretty confident that Putin would consider the Eurasian Union as such when/if it touches the 6-7% of world GDP.

[Irbis]

What would be able to stop them if they tried to expand into every Russian-speaking area around them? I've heard some blowholes talk about war but yeah, that'd end well... So what can reasonably be done by nearby nations to put the brakes on Russia?

You know what would have put the brakes on Russia?

For one, European Union (or the interested parties themselves) fucking forcing the ex-Soviet nations to treat every single minority with European standards 25 years ago. Yes, that includes Russians. Had they been treated like normal citizens during the Yeltsin years, they would identify with their new countries today and wouldn't support Putin's in any way. Because you know, it's kinda hard work to make Yeltsin and Putin look better than average democratic country.

What we got instead was imbecile nationalists feeling they are top dogs now and treating every minority like crap - Russians, Poles in Lithuania, Gaugazians in Moldavia, Osetians in Georgia, the list goes on and on. But surprise, surprise, when a minority has this little superpower to fall back on there is only so much crap that can happen before it hits the fan.

What Russian region likes Putin the least? Kaliningrad. Because some Polish politicians found their brains for once and pushed EU to greatly expand small-border movements in that region. Instead of going all-paranoid, RAR SANCTIONS, the border movement on equal rights actually gets Russians to visit, see how EU is like, find local laws better, prices lower due to clearer competition, wages higher. They see Putin is not good alternative. Kaliningrad Russians even made a hit song abut EU visits.

But don't worry, EU has enough stupid Russophobes of it's own. Plus this wonderful US pressure that only coincidentally and by accident (honest!) calls for sanctions calculated to weaken economies of 2 biggest US rivals. We will shut positive examples down soon and make Putin again the only thing the Russians can see as benevolent. Because no one is interested in actually effective measures, it's easier to go all RAR SOVITE UNIUN ALIVE than thinking.

[mr friendly guy]

There is no end game in the great game for continental empires (EU, Russia, China, US). For colonial sea empires there was an endgame (decolonization). The old form of imperialism is gone, but the new is born, and there's really no end game here.

Yeah bad choice of words on my part. I meant whether his actions in Ukraine were part of a move to achieve a bigger goal. In which case I felt it was to bolster his Eurasian Union idea.

1. That union is already created, its expansion and conflict between the EU and that other EU is what is driving the current crisis. 2. Europe is not a 'counterbalance' to the US. 3. That union is only feasible if Russia completes the 'eastward turn' in politics - which it should, if it wants to be a 'counterpoint' to Europe. 4. Putin's strategy is energy blackmail, essentially. The new union would make only 4 or 5% of world GDP, but it would control a fifth of world oil exports and one full quarter of world natural gas production, if not more. But considering China was considered an emerging superpower with 12% of world GDP, I'm pretty confident that Putin would consider the Eurasian Union as such when/if it touches the 6-7% of world GDP.

1. I thought it doesn't become official until 2015, and its a matter of how many members he can get.
2. I know in the case of Russia / Ukraine conflict, the EU won't counterbalance the US. But why do you think they won't counterbalance in some other issue.
3 & 4 - well that makes sense. The economic output of the non Russian potential members won't add much, but the energy output is another matter.

But don't worry, EU has enough stupid Russophobes of it's own. Plus this wonderful US pressure that only coincidentally and by accident (honest!) calls for sanctions calculated to weaken economies of 2 biggest US rivals. We will shut positive examples down soon and make Putin again the only thing the Russians can see as benevolent. Because no one is interested in actually effective measures, it's easier to go all RAR SOVITE UNIUN ALIVE than thinking.

Just for interest, which 2 countries are you referring to and what sanctions are being proposed?

[K. A. Pital]

Yeah bad choice of words on my part. I meant whether his actions in Ukraine were part of a move to achieve a bigger goal. In which case I felt it was to bolster his Eurasian Union idea.

I guess checking NATO expansion is important (NATO will not take in countries that have territorial issues, see Georgia and Moldova). If Ukraine suddenly gets a separatist enclave, there's absolutely no way it will get into NATO. Neither Moldova. Crimea and the warbase are now secure. Also by crushing Ukraine Putin removes the 'third option' (not being a part of the Eurasian Union or the European Union but staying somewhere between), so all nations will be forced to make a choice. This would sway those who care more about economic ties with Russia into the Eurasian Union (this includes almost all of Central Asia - no one would dare to try isolation), and complete the 'defence perimeter'.

1. I thought it doesn't become official until 2015, and its a matter of how many members he can get.

Customs Union is an existing body - expansion and renaming won't change the fact it already exists. There's no way it can exist as a unitary state, but as a not-so-loose alliance, kind of like the EU of the East, it can.

I know in the case of Russia / Ukraine conflict, the EU won't counterbalance the US. But why do you think they won't counterbalance in some other issue.

Cause Europe is a total punch doll that stronger powers are throwing around, and it could not even prevent the US from invading Iraq?

The economic output of the non Russian potential members won't add much, but the energy output is another matter.

Indeed. Solidifying control over Central Asia would mean grabbing an even greater share of world's oil and gas supply (importantly Turkmenistan, but also other nations). This is why Putin has been so friendly to Iran, which has influence on Turkmenistan.

[Vympel]

You've gotta love the neverending hypocrisy. Putin cries crocodile tears for turning tanks and planes on one's own people in his latest press conference, while the West decides that using force against civil unrest is fine if the civil unrest is pro-Russian rather than pro-West.

So I am just wondering where all those guys who totally said Putin would not support stuff in the east or further weaken the country after Crimea are now? Or where those guys who said that there would be no incitement in the east and Russia would totally not use the russian minority in the east to furhter destabilize the country are now?

OTOH, those who said Russia was not to be trusted and that Putin would not be stopped by anything than brute force seem awfully smart right now.

Who said any of that? I mean, I know neoconservative imbeciles calling for brute force to stop Russia exist*, but who are these hypothetical naysayers who said Russia wouldn't further weaken Ukraine? That was a foregone conclusion the moment Yankuvoych was ousted, and it will only stop when the Russians are satisfied that things have returned to a position they are comfortable with - the question is merely what that is.

*What is this brute force, anyway? Are you personally advocating for that? What exactly do these geniuses propose? How do they propose stopping one of the great powers (heck even if Russia's economy were to completely shit the bed, and revert to the worst days of the 1990s, it would still have the capacity to do what its doing now) from doing as it wills to enforce its interests in Ukraine?

Nice job, now the mask comes off and all you really care about is Russia getting more power. As if being able to wreck economies and a capacity to stir up shit (guess what, every nation has that) are something to be proud of or even legitimate tools.

If you can tell me where in that statement I implied what tools were and weren't "legitimate", please let me know. I don't think its legitimate for the Director of the CIA to secretly visit Ukraine immediately before the Kiev crackdown begins and then watch the government he's from whine about Russian "intereference", either. Tools are tools and the situation is what it is. There's no point in living in a fairy tale and I don't see why I should repeatedly be required to go "oh but this is not nice and very bad!" every time I talk about what one side or another is doing - I was merely stating that what Kiev will or won't allow is irrelevant if the West imposes a solution upon them as an out to the crisis, which is what I think Russia wants.

As it is, I think federalisation isn't a bad idea at all, and it has nothing to do with Russian "power". Ukraine has no unifying national identity and its history since the fall of the USSR has alteranted between the west and east repeatedly trying to pull the other in a direction they do not want to go. Period. The only way out for Ukraine is neutrality and getting the most it can from both Russia and the EU. Ukraine will never be able to sever ties with Russia, that's just a reality.

Well the financial costs for one. In places where Russia has wrestled influence from other countries, eg Abkhazia, South Ossetia and the Crimea, had large chunks of the population highly favourable to Russia. Trying to annex a place that doesn't like you is going to cost money as you have to deal with rebellions. If Russia tries to expand beyond Ukraine there is only a few places left surely that would have a population very receptive to Putin. Trans-nitria stands out and perhaps parts of the Baltics if the Russian population is concentrated in certain parts.

Abkhazia and South Ossetia are quite different from Crimea - the former two were regions of Georgia that were pretty much never in Georgian control since Georgian independence. When people talk about them as if the Russians committed some sort of significant infraction against Georgian sovereignty when they used their counterattack against Georgian stupidity to make the split permament, they're simply ignoring that those areas have been de facto independent since the country existed.

[Borgholio]

Seems like someone is handing out flyers telling Jews to register themselves at a local government office. Again with the Jews. Someone mind telling me what exactly they had to do with what's going on in the Ukraine right now?

http://www.msnbc.com/all/jews-ukraine-t ... themselves

[Vympel]

Its an obvious hoax in an attempt to smear the anti-Maidan / pro-Russia groups in the East.

Link

The Donetsk Jewish community dismissed this as "a provocation," which it clearly is. "It's an obvious provocation designed to get this exact response, going all the way up to Kerry," says Fyodr Lukyanov, editor of Russia in Global Affairs. "I have no doubt that there is a sizeable community of anti-Semites on both sides of the barricades, but for one of them to do something this stupid—this is done to compromise the pro-Russian groups in the east."

Why? The Russian government has been playing up the (real but small) role of fascists and neo-Nazis in the victory of the EuroMaidan in Kiev. The Ukrainian government, utterly powerless to fight off the Russians and their local stooges, have had to rely on other methods, like leaking taped phone calls of allegedly local separatists getting their commands from Moscow. This may be just another tactic to smear the so-called anti-Maidan in the east of Ukraine: you think we're fascists? Well, take a look at these guys.

Indeed, the Russian web chatter has sniffed the hand of the Dnipropetrovsk city government. (Dnipropetrovsk is another eastern Ukrainian city, but one that has been spared this chaos, in part because of the firm hand of its new regional governor, Jewish businessman Ihor Kolomoisky. One (Jewish) blogger said he received a similar looking flier from an official in the Dnipropetrovsk city administration.

On the other hand, says Vladimir Fedorin, an independent Russian journalist working in Ukraine, we shouldn't totally dismiss these fliers. "I think the fliers are fake, but the anti-Maidan crowd is a collection of the hardcore 'alternative' variety and criminals, so it's possible some of them are capable of this." To wit, there were also reports of teenagers distributing these fliers.

So, in conclusion: the Jews of Donetsk and eastern Ukraine may have been asked by a leaflet to register, but it has not been enforced nor are any Ukrainian Jews registering themselves. If that changes, I'll be all over it, but so far, you can breathe easy. No Holocaust 2.0 just yet.

Snopes has a page on it

In the event, it appears that whoever distributed the leaflets simply fabricated the alarming documents for the purpose of yanking people's chains, generating negative publicity, and/or making some money, without having either the means or the intent of actually enforcing the provisions outlined therein

Maybe this is the kind of brilliant, professional intelligence work that Brennan went to Kiev to facilitiate. You know, like poisoned cigars to make Castro's beard fall out. Clowns.

[K. A. Pital]

More war. War war war. I think the next weeks will solidify the East-West split and Ukraine will end. At least in current borders. This time Russia is not too eager to help, but the truth is, they just need more blood (and Kiev seems to be providing enough of that storming Slaviansk). When bloodshed reaches the level of Georgia, Russian forces will enter and stabilize the frontline.

[Zaune]

Seems like someone is handing out flyers telling Jews to register themselves at a local government office. Again with the Jews. Someone mind telling me what exactly they had to do with what's going on in the Ukraine right now?

http://www.msnbc.com/all/jews-ukraine-t ... themselves

Well, you've got to have a bit of Jew-bashing with your political unrest, don't you? 'S traditional.