Brexit and General UK politics thread

[Zaune]

Yes, it very probably will cause problems further down the line, but the alternative is a Chinese and/or American boot on our necks for the next century if we're lucky.

[LaCroix]

Don't you think that this would cause further problems down the line? Being in the EU without even having a voice about how it's run is certain to inflame tensions to an entirely different degree.

But then again, I've had no problems with Scotland breaking off, so... *grabs popcorn*

EEA/EFTA does not mean you are in the EU -it means you sign the existing European Free Trade Agreement. The existing agreement contains rules for admittance, and the most relevant are that you follow the EU laws and trade regulations (with a vote on some aspects of them), and adhere to the 4 freedoms. You either sign the present contract or you don't get in - like joining NAFTA - you sign or not, they won't negotiate extra terms for you.
You can still barter other individual free trade with non-EU/EFFTA countries on your own, though.

It's similar to Texas seceding, and joining NAFTA...

Norway and Swizerland are living like that for a decade or more, and have no complaints. EU laws are usually reasonable (with a few exceptions).
Also, neither of them have delusions of grandeur or an institutional problem with immigrants from eastern Europe seeking work, and a mostly functional secondary sector.

And there are always two options available if you don't like "regulation without representation".

Leave and see what you can get yourself on the free market.
Join the EU to get more of a say.

[K. A. Pital]

EEA/EFTA does not mean you are in the EU -it means you sign the existing European Free Trade Agreement. The existing agreement contains rules for admittance, and the most relevant are that you follow the EU laws and trade regulations (with a vote on some aspects of them), and adhere to the 4 freedoms

It is basically like being in the EU without having any representation.

Norway and Swizerland are living like that for a decade or more, and have no complaints.

You surely missed the massive crisis in Switzerland over immigration where the government ignored the referendum results and did not force quotas on EU citizens, because going through with it would have instantly destroyed all Swiss bilateral agreements with the EU - due to the guillotine clause. Which was a very real risk in 2014-2017. The EU put pressure and the Swiss caved in, but at no point is this a "no complaints" situation.

Also, neither of them have delusions of grandeur or an institutional problem with immigrants from eastern Europe seeking work, and a mostly functional secondary sector.

The Swiss xenophobia is so strong that Eastern European nations have special rules applying to them compared to immigrants from established EU nations (EU 17).

Basically, Switzerland already had a Brexit situation (referendum with xenophobic opinion winning -> government which did not want to lose access to the common market -> ignoring the referendum -> still being bound by all EU law and freedom of movement).

Given the above, it's definetely going to be a much harder time selling it to the Brexit public as an "exit".

[LaCroix]

I was not aware that the swiss crisis was that much of a thing. I stand corrected.

But yes, these Swiss problems is pretty much what I expect to happen if Britain would try a "soft" exit and find out what they are signing up for.

[K. A. Pital]

Some relevant reading:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swiss_imm ... ruary_2014

[The Romulan Republic]

I'd fucking love it if that happened. It would be the best possible outcome short of full membership, I expect, and it would be fitting comeuppance to the Brexit assholes.

It would also show that there are no consequences to badly botched democratic choice.

As others have noted, there would be consequences- but perhaps not absolutely crippling ones that would hurt a lot of innocent people. And I'd rather not see Britain utterly ruined, or innocent people suffer, to make a point.

The consequences in this scenario would fall disproportionately on the assholes responsible for this cluster fuck, which to me seems fair.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

I'd fucking love it if that happened. It would be the best possible outcome short of full membership, I expect, and it would be fitting comeuppance to the Brexit assholes.

It would also show that there are no consequences to badly botched democratic choice.

As others have noted, there would be consequences- but perhaps not absolutely crippling ones that would hurt a lot of innocent people. And I'd rather not see Britain utterly ruined, or innocent people suffer, to make a point.

The consequences in this scenario would fall disproportionately on the assholes responsible for this cluster fuck, which to me seems fair.

I too would love to see Brexit fail, except as a Scot living in England I'd have to live with the consequences; especially as I was a staunch remainer the whole mess pisses me off!

[Zaune]

The Indy

Britain could be hit with food and medicine shortages within two weeks of leaving the European Union if a Brexit deal isn't reached, a new government study has claimed.

A 'doomsday' scenario for a no-deal Brexit has been drawn up which paints a terrifying picture of what Britain could be forced to endure when the country leaves the EU.

Senior civil servants have speculated on three different scenarios for possible Brexit outcomes – one mild, one severe and one they have called 'Armageddon'.

A source told The Sunday Times: "In the second worst scenario, not even the worst, the port of Dover will collapse on day one.

"The supermarkets in Cornwall and Scotland will run out of food within a couple of days, and hospitals will run out of medicines within two weeks."

The source added that the RAF would have to be used to transport emergency medicine to the far corners of the UK and warned that the country would also quickly run out of petrol.

A spokesperson for David Davis' Brexit department said such discussions had taken place, but denied that the doomsday scenario would occur.
Brexit threatens life on the Irish border: in pictures

They said: "A significant amount of work and decision-making has gone into our no-deal plans, especially where it relates to ports, and we know that none of this would come to pass".

Concerns are still being raised at the possibility of a no-deal Brexit meaning the UK will trade on World Trade Organisation terms, with critics suggesting wealthy EU countries will not want to trade with Britain in this manner.

One senior official described the potential catastrophe of Britain being unable to trade with Europe in no uncertain terms.

"We are entirely dependent on Europe reciprocating our posture that we will do nothing to impede the flow of goods into the UK. If, for whatever reason, Europe decides to slow that supply down then we're screwed," the official said.

However home secretary Sajid Javid said he didn't recognise the "doomsday" scenarios.

Speaking on the BBC's Andrew Marr Show, he said: "I have to say I don't recognise any bit of that at all and as Home Secretary. I am deeply involved in 'no deal preparations' as much as I am in getting a deal - I'm confident we will get a deal.

"From the work that I have seen and the analysis that has been done, those outcomes ... I don't think any of them would come to pass."

He added that the Government was making progress with Brexit plans, saying: "I'm confident that as we get to the June council meeting the Prime Minister will have a good set of proposals and our colleagues in Europe will respond positively."

Well, this should be interesting...

[EnterpriseSovereign]

I seriously doubt such predictions will come to pass- ultimately, the long-term damage to the economy will turn out to be far worse. The Brexit bunch are claiming that the remainers must be wrong because doomsday hasn't happened, conveniently forgetting we haven't fucking left yet!

I'm gonna keep asking when the promised £350 million/week is supposed to materialise!

[mr friendly guy]

From Vice

Britain's Fish Capital Voted To Leave The EU — Now They Want It Back (HBO)



Summary - they want the benefits of being in the EU without being part of it. Which seems strange the EU will grant it, since if you break it down, its essentially a club for countries. And like any club, to fund its services and benefits, you have to pay its dues.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

It is both sad and hilarious that that parts of the country that voted overwhelmingly to leave are the ones hit hardest so far, and this is just the start.

[mr friendly guy]

It is both sad and hilarious that that parts of the country that voted overwhelmingly to leave are the ones hit hardest so far, and this is just the start.

This story sounds familiar. People vote against their own interests because they either didn't take the time to study the issue or its too complicated for them no matter how much attention they devote.

[madd0ct0r]

Also that people are very bad at comparing a single big number presented as 'bad' and a wide spread of small benefits that mainly seem to go to other people.

[Captain Seafort]

This story sounds familiar. People vote against their own interests because they either didn't take the time to study the issue or its too complicated for them no matter how much attention they devote.

Or they have a multitude of interests, some of which are diametrically opposed to each other, and they therefore have to prioritise. The result of said prioritisation will be different for each individual.

[mr friendly guy]

This story sounds familiar. People vote against their own interests because they either didn't take the time to study the issue or its too complicated for them no matter how much attention they devote.

Or they have a multitude of interests, some of which are diametrically opposed to each other, and they therefore have to prioritise. The result of said prioritisation will be different for each individual.

True. But if you're starting to regret a decision after the act, it could be due to the fact you didn't analyse the pros and cons sufficiently at the beginning. A big decision like whether to Brexit or remain, definitely required some study.

[Zaune]

Okay, I have no idea what just happened, but we're now at three ministerial resignations and counting.

I need to renew my passport.

[Zaune]

Ghetto edit: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44761056

Brexit Secretary David Davis has resigned from the UK government.

His resignation comes days after Theresa May secured the cabinet's backing for her Brexit plan despite claims from Brexiteers that it was too "soft".

Mr Davis was appointed Brexit secretary in 2016 and was responsible for negotiating the UK withdrawal from the EU.

A Brexiteer hailed his resignation as a "principled and brave decision".

Conservative MP Peter Bone said Mr Davis had "done the right thing", adding: "The PM's proposals for a Brexit in name only are not acceptable."

I don't have a better source than Twitter yet, but apparently his deputy and a third Cabinet member are quitting as well.

So much for making what you might charitably call progress.

[Zaune]

Sorry to triple-post, but something rather worrying is going on. Boris Johnson appears to have disappeared.

First he doesn't show up to a summit in the Western Balkans. Given the Russian intelligence service appears to have left a half-empty canister of nerve gas lying around in the street it would be reasonable to suppose he had to cancel on short notice because he was needed at a COBRA briefing... But it seems he never arrived, and nobody seems to know where he is. Or if they do then they're not telling the media.

[Crazedwraith]

Sorry to triple-post, but something rather worrying is going on. Boris Johnson appears to have disappeared.

First he doesn't show up to a summit in the Western Balkans. Given the Russian intelligence service appears to have left a half-empty canister of nerve gas lying around in the street it would be reasonable to suppose he had to cancel on short notice because he was needed at a COBRA briefing... But it seems he never arrived, and nobody seems to know where he is. Or if they do then they're not telling the media.

Breaking news: He's resigned.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Sorry to triple-post, but something rather worrying is going on. Boris Johnson appears to have disappeared.

First he doesn't show up to a summit in the Western Balkans. Given the Russian intelligence service appears to have left a half-empty canister of nerve gas lying around in the street it would be reasonable to suppose he had to cancel on short notice because he was needed at a COBRA briefing... But it seems he never arrived, and nobody seems to know where he is. Or if they do then they're not telling the media.

Breaking news: He's resigned.

I'm not sorry to see the back of him- ever since he hopped on the Brexit bandwagon out of nowhere I lost all respect for him.

[Zaune]

Neither am I, but the timing could perhaps have been better? And he could at least have waited until the end of the day to write his letter of resignation instead of skiving off.

[Crazedwraith]

Without sounds like too much of a conspiracy nut, but the Foreign Secretary resigning right when someone needs to be standing up to Russia about poising one of our citizens to death... well that's really bad timing. (I mean given the brexit reasoning I don't really think It's related but it's still bad)

Since the whole 'two articiles' thing I wouldn't credit him with actual principles, Boris does what he thinks is best for him. Presumably he copes to galvanise the die-hard brexiteers to his side.

[Zaune]

Resignation number five just happened, by the way, albeit by someone who seems to have only marginally outranked the tea lady.

[Crazedwraith]

Farage Threatens the worst thing imaginable. Him returning to politics

[Zaune]

And somehow, that manages to be the second worst tweet I've read all day.

Guess who's getting BoJo's job?

Jeremy Hunt. Jeremy motherfucking Hunt!