UKRAINE WAR - 1 YEAR AND GOING.

[Highlord Laan]

I'm firmly convinced that the one and only reason the fascists here in uhmurikkka are against aiding Ukraine is because they're ashamed of being afraid of ruzzia for the last sixty years.

[LadyTevar]

I'm firmly convinced that the one and only reason the fascists here in uhmurikkka are against aiding Ukraine is because they're ashamed of being afraid of ruzzia for the last sixty years.

Well, remember, a lot of them were raised on the RUSSIAN BEAR WILL EAT YOU mentality.

[LadyTevar]

Russian mercenary boss slams army 'clowns' as he marks birthday at training camp

So... he's wanting to take "A Month Off" from the fighting, to "see how it goes", while he tries to rebuild Wagner via Twitter and other advertising. Sounds like he's expecting Ukraine to push the Russian forces so hard they're going to need a scapegoat, and he's making sure he can say "Well, if we were THERE, and had Freedom and Ammo to DO THINGS....."

[aerius]

How many more times does Prigozhin have to lie to your face before you realize he's just bullshitting again?

[Ralin]

I'm firmly convinced that the one and only reason the fascists here in uhmurikkka are against aiding Ukraine is because they're ashamed of being afraid of ruzzia for the last sixty years.

Republicans haven't really been against aiding Ukraine though. The peaceniks are mainly the especially hardcore MAGA types.

[Solauren]

Russian mercenary boss slams army 'clowns' as he marks birthday at training camp

So... he's wanting to take "A Month Off" from the fighting, to "see how it goes", while he tries to rebuild Wagner via Twitter and other advertising. Sounds like he's expecting Ukraine to push the Russian forces so hard they're going to need a scapegoat, and he's making sure he can say "Well, if we were THERE, and had Freedom and Ammo to DO THINGS....."

Or he's expecting Russia to collapse from the push, and he wants time to regroup to play Warlord.

[Lord Revan]

How many more times does Prigozhin have to lie to your face before you realize he's just bullshitting again?

I'm pretty sure at least some in the Russian hierarchy know very he's BSing but can't admit as it would come back to bite them in the ass instead.

[LadyTevar]

From a correspondent's page on FB:

-- Wagner kidnaps and/or "Arrests" the commander of the Russian 72nd Brigade, Roman Venevitin in a major escalation of infighting between the mercenary group and Russian Army.
-- In the last few days, Wagner claimed that the Russian army mined the roads leading out of Bakhmut that Wagner used to withdraw.

[The_Saint]

Good news: infighting and backstabbing might cause a downfall of the current Russian situation.
Bad news: infighting and backstabbing might lead to some form of 'Stab-in-the-back myth' ala Germany 1918.

[Gandalf]

I could see that happening, you get Dolchstoßlegende after a lot of failed conflicts. Vietnam was apparently the fault of Jane Fonda and the media, while Iraq was apparently lost by Obama somehow.

Always someone to blame.

[The_Saint]

I feel in a way, that although the incursions by the Free Russian units militarily helps Ukraine ... it doesn't politically.

The Ukrainian narrative is that they are in this to return to their old border and the best and easiest way to confirm that, and hold the upperhand in world public opinion, would be for some part of the coming offensive to push to the border and then visibly stop there. By having some units, even if only tacitly supported by the Ukrainian Government cross the border it lends more credence to Russian claims that they're the attacked and oppressed.

I could see that happening, you get Dolchstoßlegende after a lot of failed conflicts. Vietnam was apparently the fault of Jane Fonda and the media, while Iraq was apparently lost by Obama somehow.

Always someone to blame.

To be fair much of it is people only reflecting on the situation a political time scale (a couple of years) rather than a cultural time scale (a couple of decades), Ukraine is proving to be a bit of an oddity where many focus on the last few years but there is at least talk regarding how prior changes 1991/1945/1917/all the way back to the 1700s has led to today.

Vietnam being 'lost' in the 1970s is a product of the 'end' of colonialism and WW2, 20+ years prior but of course people only looked short term. Afghanistan and Iraq are products of the latest empire (USA) not learning from it's predecessors (USSR, UK.....).

[madd0c0t0r2]

I feel in a way, that although the incursions by the Free Russian units militarily helps Ukraine ... it doesn't politically.

The Ukrainian narrative is that they are in this to return to their old border and the best and easiest way to confirm that, and hold the upperhand in world public opinion, would be for some part of the coming offensive to push to the border and then visibly stop there. By having some units, even if only tacitly supported by the Ukrainian Government cross the border it lends more credence to Russian claims that they're the attacked and oppressed.

I could see that happening, you get Dolchstoßlegende after a lot of failed conflicts. Vietnam was apparently the fault of Jane Fonda and the media, while Iraq was apparently lost by Obama somehow.

Always someone to blame.

To be fair much of it is people only reflecting on the situation a political time scale (a couple of years) rather than a cultural time scale (a couple of decades), Ukraine is proving to be a bit of an oddity where many focus on the last few years but there is at least talk regarding how prior changes 1991/1945/1917/all the way back to the 1700s has led to today.

Vietnam being 'lost' in the 1970s is a product of the 'end' of colonialism and WW2, 20+ years prior but of course people only looked short term. Afghanistan and Iraq are products of the latest empire (USA) not learning from it's predecessors (USSR, UK.....).

I had shower thoughts about this today, but came to the opposite conclusion. The support given to Ukraine has been 'defensive' in nature, and about restoring the status quo borders to try and avoid escalation with Russia. Ukrainian commando units operating in Russia attacking targets that are clearly linked to the Ukrainian war (factory making kerch bridge deck, airfield launching drones ect) are seen as fair targets. The goal is to avoid a total war. Let the war exhaust Russia without panicking it.

BUT Russia has not engaged with any of the options to back down. Its not clear if that is a broken nationalism system that can't back down, or a calculated irrational brinksmanship where they think they will reach a level of warfare that the west will back off from, Ukraine will collapse and they march into Kyiv a year or two late, cost be damned. Such brinkmanship is possible if Russia feels no existential threat, and tells itself it can stop the war at any time it wants. An external existential threat can be nuke-threatened away, and so is not credible, and so the pressure on Russia to stop the war can't be turned up higher externally.

The threat of a civil war or uprising is a credible existential threat to the oligarchs. They ain't going to nuke their own cities, and even if they do, it wouldn't work. The pressure and drafts are increasing the pool of angry young people with fuck all to lose. Die fighting for change, or die in Bakhmut. If Russia is capable of backing down, this might be the pressure point that does it. If they are not capable of backing down and Europe keeps them contained, then a coup or civil war in Russia becomes nearly inevitable.

[Lord Revan]

This might be a repeat of 1905 where the Czar (or in this case Putin) will keep up a failing war (Russo-Japanese war in the of 1905) until internal conflict forces them to stop to contain said conflict, it should be noted that the 1905 revolution did not end up in a coup though the Czar had to make serious reformations which he later tried to back down from causing (among other things) the more famous 1917 revolution.

[Ralin]

You know at this point I'm less concerned with sparing the Russian government's feelings to avoid provoking them into doing something ~dramatic~ and more concerned with breaking them and to a lesser extent the Russian public in general of their apparent belief that they are a great power which has the world's 2nd strongest military that is only a little behind the US. Putin has rejected every off-ramp he's been offered. He may not be insane but he and by extension his government is clearly operating off an understanding his country's capabilities and the geopolitical situation that doesn't match up with reality in a number of key ways.

Yeah they have nukes and that makes them dangerous all by itself. So does North Korea. I don't worry about North Korea starting a nuclear war because wacky propaganda aside the North Korean government seems to have a realistic understanding of what they can do and what their situation is with regards to the US (which is why they worked so hard to get those nukes). Seems to me that the goal should be to leave Russia as a collective entity in a similar situation, though ideally with less poverty and fewer gulags.

[madd0c0t0r2]

I'm currently trying to define a guideline to specify when Russia has entered a civil war.

the 1000 war deaths / year seems a reasonable proxy. the ICRC has a more detailed set of criteria, but it seems to hinge on one side engaging with the various international institutions that may not apply here

[bilateralrope]

Wagner captures Russian commander as Prigozhin feud with army escalates

Lt Col Roman Venevitin seen telling interrogator he ordered troops to shoot at convoy of mercenaries

Pjotr Sauer
Mon 5 Jun 2023 11.16 BST

Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner group of mercenaries has captured a Russian commander, as the notorious leader further escalates his feud with the regular army.

In a video posted on Prigozhin’s social media channels, Lt Col Roman Venevitin, the commander of Russia’s 72nd Brigade, tells an interrogator that, while drunk, he had ordered his troops to fire on a Wagner convoy.

In the footage, which resembled clips of prisoner of war soldiers, Venevitin said he acted because of his “personal dislike” for Wagner and then apologised.

Last week, Prigozhin accused the Russian army of trying to blow up his men as they were pulling back from the eastern Ukrainian town of Bakhmut.

The businessman, who is best known as “Putin’s chef” because of his catering contracts with the Kremlin, also claimed his men had discovered explosives, which he said were planted on purpose by defence ministry officials.

The Russian ministry of defence has yet to comment on the footage.

Two close family members of Venevitin confirmed to the Guardian that the man filmed in the video was their relative.

Prigozhin, who has been arguing with top military officials for months, announced last week that his troops had largely pulled back from Bakhmut, most of which they captured last month after taking heavy casualties. The city is now believed to be controlled by the regular Russian forces.

The latest incident again exposes the rifts in Moscow’s war machine. It also comes amid an increase in fighting along the frontlines in the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions, leading to speculation that Kyiv has launched its much-anticipated counteroffensive.

Some nationalist pro-war commentators said Wagner’s arrest of a senior Russian soldier attested to Prigozhin’s growing influence within the Kremlin.

“Yevgeny Prigozhin, whose subordinates posted a video in which they mock a senior officer and an entire brigade commander … is allowed to do whatever he wants. He is considered as the highest caste!” Igor Strelkov, a retired Russian special operations officer and popular military blogger, wrote on his Telegram channel.

Prigozhin’s influence grew as his troops gradually captured Bakhmut in recent months, delivering Moscow the first tangible military victory since last summer.

Since the start of the war, Prigozhin has emerged as one of the most visible power players, frequently using social media to deliver scorching tirades against the defence ministry. His turbulent rise, however, has angered some elements of the Russian elite.

Last week, Prigozhin received rare public criticism when two close allies of the Chechen leader, Ramzan Kadyrov, described him as a “hysterical blogger” who undermined Russia’s war effort.

Is this enough infighting for a civil war ?

[LadyTevar]

Wagner captures Russian commander as Prigozhin feud with army escalates

Is this enough infighting for a civil war ?

No... it's just more of Prigozhin's posturing against the Russian Army.

I'd love to know why that Army commander thought he could fire on his 'allies' and get away with it, tho.

[Lord Revan]

Wagner captures Russian commander as Prigozhin feud with army escalates

Is this enough infighting for a civil war ?

No... it's just more of Prigozhin's posturing against the Russian Army.

I'd love to know why that Army commander thought he could fire on his 'allies' and get away with it, tho.

According to that article he was drunk at the time, so he probably wasn't thinking period. That said it's probably no surprise that Prigozhin or Wagner aren't exactly making many friends within the Russian army and the oligarchs and senior military leaders (and they're not always different things) becoming a de facto nobility, they're starting to show the worst aspect of it, the very reason nobility as a social status pretty much died out after World War 2

[Gandalf]

I'm currently trying to define a guideline to specify when Russia has entered a civil war.

the 1000 war deaths / year seems a reasonable proxy. the ICRC has a more detailed set of criteria, but it seems to hinge on one side engaging with the various international institutions that may not apply here

Depends on the cause. A civil war involves two or more factions fighting for control of the country. Amusingly, that does mean that the US Civil War was not actually a civil war.

I think Wagner v the army falls under factional violence.

[The_Saint]

<snip>

I had shower thoughts about this today, but came to the opposite conclusion. The support given to Ukraine has been 'defensive' in nature, and about restoring the status quo borders to try and avoid escalation with Russia. Ukrainian commando units operating in Russia attacking targets that are clearly linked to the Ukrainian war (factory making kerch bridge deck, airfield launching drones ect) are seen as fair targets. The goal is to avoid a total war. Let the war exhaust Russia without panicking it.

BUT Russia has not engaged with any of the options to back down. Its not clear if that is a broken nationalism system that can't back down, or a calculated irrational brinksmanship where they think they will reach a level of warfare that the west will back off from, Ukraine will collapse and they march into Kyiv a year or two late, cost be damned. Such brinkmanship is possible if Russia feels no existential threat, and tells itself it can stop the war at any time it wants. An external existential threat can be nuke-threatened away, and so is not credible, and so the pressure on Russia to stop the war can't be turned up higher externally.

The threat of a civil war or uprising is a credible existential threat to the oligarchs. They ain't going to nuke their own cities, and even if they do, it wouldn't work. The pressure and drafts are increasing the pool of angry young people with fuck all to lose. Die fighting for change, or die in Bakhmut. If Russia is capable of backing down, this might be the pressure point that does it. If they are not capable of backing down and Europe keeps them contained, then a coup or civil war in Russia becomes nearly inevitable.

A challenge here is the way a country sells it's situation to it's population and other countries. In this war Ukraine gets to fairly legitimately play the oppressed victim card, as an example, in the Vietnam war North Vietnam could also fairly legitimately play the same card, the USA was playing the "we here because we can't let the evil commies win" which depending on point of view might be a good argument but on the invader vs defender is still shaky ground (and probably a good part of the reason why they 'lost'/didn't win).

Russia from day 1 in Ukraine has played on it's historic strengths:
1917, the bourgeoise are oppressing you and an existential threat to the population, resist!
1945, the nazis are invading and are an existential threat to the population, resist!
2022, the ... nazis? ... ... .... ... are an existential threat to the population, resist!

This time the struggle though is that in 1945 they were invaded so they could play the victim card and in 1917 it was an internal issue but now it's an intangible problem like WMD's in Iraq in 2003... couldn't really find it when they went looking and the locals turned out to not be as appreciative as expected of the freedom that was brought to them. (as all the intercepted phone calls have proved as Russian troops realised they really were duped).

[Rogue 9]

Russia has blown up the Kakhovka hydroelectric dam on the lower Dnipro. The reservoir it held back was both Crimea's main water supply and the source of coolant for the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, not to mention this will destroy all the towns downstream. They must be desperate.

[AniThyng]

Russia has blown up the Kakhovka hydroelectric dam on the lower Dnipro. The reservoir it held back was both Crimea's main water supply and the source of coolant for the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, not to mention this will destroy all the towns downstream. They must be desperate.

How do we know it was RU that did it..?

[KraytKing]

They say they didn't. The MoD is a pretty reliable source if you invert everything they say.

[madd0c0t0r2]

Last month, it was reported that water levels in the reservoir had reached a 30-year high, as the Russian occupiers had only kept relatively few sluice gates open, according to experts.

David Helms, a former US air force and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration meteorologist who has monitored the dam said on Twitter: “The Russians allowed the reservoir to fill to record levels; if the dam failed “naturally”, it certainly failed due to 6 weeks of over-topping and stress on the structure.”

I remember back at the start of the invasion, the same discussion for the Ukrainian forces - the threat to blow the dam being used to try to slow the russian advance in the south. This is being done in reverse.

The ukrainian's knew it was a possible/probable russian gambit. The front has closed down in that area - no russian counterattack either.

[Crazedwraith]

Russia has blown up the Kakhovka hydroelectric dam on the lower Dnipro. The reservoir it held back was both Crimea's main water supply and the source of coolant for the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, not to mention this will destroy all the towns downstream. They must be desperate.

Well this bit sounds extremely worrying. How long before the power plant feels the effects?


eta: Answered my own question, partly. No "immediate" danger according to the IAEA.