Brexit and General UK politics thread

[Tribble]

10) Kick as many immigrants out as possible despite any labour shortfalls.

11) Eliminate as many labour / environmental regulations as possible.

12) Get rid of the human rights laws as soon as possible since they interfere with all the above steps.

[The Jester]

But don't worry, nothing will happen to the UK. Just like the US, it will use its veto power to block any resolutions on it. Which would make the UK the second country to actually block an ICJ ruling, and the only countries to do so, being Western democracies.

Yes and no with nothing actually happening to the UK. The issue with playing hardball is it disincentivises others from playing nice with you. Not just those you played hardball with, but also those witness to your behaviour. When you're a member of a large trading block then there's certainly a lot of weight to be thrown around if you do take this route. If you're a single fish swimming away from the school...

10) Kick as many immigrants out as possible despite any labour shortfalls.

11) Eliminate as many labour / environmental regulations as possible.

12) Get rid of the human rights laws as soon as possible since they interfere with all the above steps.

Ah. Right.

10) Use the newfound regulatory independence to eliminate regulations/slim down regulatory bodies, transforming the country into a utopia for business.

I presently wonder if this is an insane game of political brinkmanship played by the likes of Farage, Mogg and Johnson. That they know this is all as fanciful as £350 million to the NHS, but they also stand to gain politically so long as they can remain critical of May's attempts at compromise. Because much like when the the Coyote finally catches the Roadrunner, I don't think they know what to do in six months.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

From my understanding, all the British politicians are lying about what's about to happen. As per Article 50, all treaties cease. All of them. This means that in addition to the single market, the UK is no longer able to trade under the FTAs the EU has signed with about 60 other nations on the UK's behalf. As per WTO rules, all these nations will be forced to treat them as a 3rd party and apply the corresponding (rather high) tariffs.

But it gets worse. Because the UK is no longer trading under the EU's schedule, they're now required to submit their own schedule to the WTO where all 164 member nations have the opportunity to review it and object if they feel it's unfair. Should anyone object (there's about 10 that will, including NZ and Australia), that schedule will not be certified. While the UK have no certified schedule, they're considered an avatar for non-rules based trade. You're going to have a helluva time if other countries don't consider you as someone who plays by the rules.

I've heard claims that scedule was submitted mid-July, and that other countries would have a 3-month window to raise objections. I know that Spain and Argentina might object (due to Gibraltar and Falklands, respectively), why would Australia and New Zealand though?

[EnterpriseSovereign]

I presently wonder if this is an insane game of political brinkmanship played by the likes of Farage, Mogg and Johnson. That they know this is all as fanciful as £350 million to the NHS, but they also stand to gain politically so long as they can remain critical of May's attempts at compromise. Because much like when the the Coyote finally catches the Roadrunner, I don't think they know what to do in six months.

As I recall, Coyote found Jesus!

Labour members will vote on a Brexit motion on keeping ‘all options on the table’ - including the possibility of campaigning for a second referendum if the party can’t force a general election.

Not sure how they can do that since the last election was less than a year ago. Surely only the Government can do that?

[Zaune]

Hah. Does anyone know many spontaneous by-elections would have to happen in Conservative seats before they no longer had a majority government even with the political wing of the Ulster Defence Something-or-other (I can never keep all the Unionist terrorist organisations straight) as their allies?

[Zaune]

Ghetto edit: Oh, yeah. Just to remind everyone of what the stakes are here, this is what happens if a Type 1 diabetic runs out of insulin. Type 1 cases make up about 10% of the 2.5 million diagnosed diabetics in the UK (source), so that's a quarter of a million people who are going to be in immediate danger if the absolute worst-case No Deal scenario happens. Once you take insulin out of the fridge (and it has to be at room temperature to be administered) it's good for just thirty days, and so far as I know it's normal to only give out three or four vials or self-injection pens at a time and renew your prescription as soon as you start the last one in your current supply.

And guess what: "We make no insulin in the UK. We import every drop of it."

The practical upshot of all this is that if the British government fails to get its shit together, approximately one month after Brexit we'll start to see a spike in deaths from pancreatitis and Diabetic Ketoacidosis, or DKA. Probably a number of suicides as well, as people choose one of the many faster and less painful ways to die first. Three months, and even if the government does finally get its shit together it'll be too late for every type 1 diabetic in this country.

And that's just one illness, albeit a common one. What else are we going to run short of?

[The Jester]

I've heard claims that scedule was submitted mid-July, and that other countries would have a 3-month window to raise objections. I know that Spain and Argentina might object (due to Gibraltar and Falklands, respectively), why would Australia and New Zealand though?

A complete schedule has not been submitted. They submitted a draft, but the schedule of services isn't complete. WTO members also have the option of requesting more time to review its contents.

I don't recall the sticking point for Australia off the top of my head (it'll almost certainly be agri-related), but for NZ the major contention is over lamb. The UK absorbs about half of the EU's lamb quota. My understanding of the problem is that simply splitting the quota (which is currently the plan) creates substantial trade headaches for exporters as they lose flexibility on where to ship their lamb. So if there's a temporary dip in demand from the UK, NZ lamb exporters simply can't offload to excess to another EU member state.

[The Jester]

Oh, yeah. Just to remind everyone of what the stakes are here[...]

If you want to be scared, check out the EU Preparedness Notices. However bad you think Brexit may be, it's actually much worse.

As another example, read the notice on Air Transport.

As of the withdrawal date, the operating licences granted to airlines by the United Kingdom Civil Aviation Authority will no longer be valid EU operating licences.

[...]

Air carriers of the United Kingdom will no longer enjoy traffic rights under any air transport agreement to which the Union is a party, be it to or from the territory of the United Kingdom, be it to or from the territory of any of the EU Member States

Air carriers of the United Kingdom will no longer have access to designation/traffic rights so far available under the bilateral air transport agreements between EU Member States and a third country on account of the principle of EU designation accepted by the third country concerned.

[...]

Air carriers of countries which are not Member States of the EU will no longer benefit from access to traffic rights to or from the territory of the United Kingdom, or any other rights where these have been granted to their country under any air transport agreement to which the Union is a party.

Air safety.

In accordance with Article 20 of the Basic Regulation6, the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) carries out the functions and tasks of the state of design on behalf of Member States with regard to the type certificates for products7, certificates for parts and appliances, and certificates for design organisations. Such certificates issued by EASA to persons and organisations located in the United Kingdom will therefore no longer be valid in the EU as of the withdrawal date. The products, parts and appliances concerned will no longer be considered as certified in accordance with Article 5 of the Basic Regulation.

[Wild Zontargs]

And guess what: "We make no insulin in the UK. We import every drop of it."

The practical upshot of all this is that if the British government fails to get its shit together, approximately one month after Brexit we'll start to see a spike in deaths from pancreatitis and Diabetic Ketoacidosis, or DKA. Probably a number of suicides as well, as people choose one of the many faster and less painful ways to die first. Three months, and even if the government does finally get its shit together it'll be too late for every type 1 diabetic in this country.

Apparently not so:

Sir Michael Rawlins, the chair of the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA), said on Friday that the UK did not produce any insulin, and raised concerns that a no-deal Brexit could disrupt supply of this vital medicine.

It’s not true to say that we don’t produce any insulin whatsoever in the UK. However, it looks like the amount we do make here serves less than one per cent of the Brits who rely on insulin. And indeed, the small amount of insulin that is produced in the UK is made from pigs and cows, rather than human cells.

But more importantly, the companies that do supply the bulk of UK patients – even with products manufactured overseas – have told us that they don’t expect significant problems with supply in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

After his interview on Friday, Mr Rawlins issued a further statement acknowledging that his comments were made before the health secretary, Matt Hancock, announced the government’s contingency plans.

[Juubi Karakuchi]

The Road Haulage Association has been issuing its own warnings. This one caught my eye.

https://www.rha.uk.net/news/press-relea ... bs-no-food

Brexit and the UK haulage industry – no deal, no jobs, no food

29th July 2018

On Tuesday 24 July, MPs in the House of Commons were heard to repeat ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’.

But for the 7000+ members of the Road Haulage Association who, between them operate nearly 50% of the UK’s 496,000 lorry fleet (and the UK haulage industry as a whole), the prospect of a future without a Brexit deal looks extremely bleak.

A no-deal Brexit will create massive problems for international hauliers – whether UK or mainland Europe based. It is time for a reality check.

Since the prospect of leaving the EU became a reality in June 2016, the Road Haulage Association has been campaigning tirelessly to get the best deal for its members. It is essential – for the people and businesses of mainland Europe and Great Britain that the current system of frictionless borders continues.

For supply chains, customs controls and the controlling of lorry movements the key issues. Should there be no deal and customs controls are established for UK hauliers at every European border, the knock-on effect will be crippling.

According to RHA chief Executive Richard Burnett, “The Dover Strait handles 10,000 lorries each day and processing them through the port is currently seamless.

“The stark reality is that if customs controls are put in place, it will take an average of about 45 minutes to process one truck on both sides of the channel. If that happens then the queues of HGVs in Kent will make the jams seen in the summer of 2015 appear as little more than waiting for the traffic lights to change.”

In March this year Transport Secretary Chris Grayling MP said: “We will maintain a free-flowing border at Dover, we will not impose checks at the port, it is utterly unrealistic to do so. We don't check lorries now, we're not going to be checking lorries in the future. I’m clear that it cannot happen.”

But what about the French?

If they put customs processes in place in March 2019 to check all lorries traveling between the UK and the EU hauliers will be faced with the prospect of coming over to the UK and having to wait for days – even weeks, before they can return home. This will be a huge deterrent to them making the journey at all.

50% of food consumed in the UK’s comes from around the world – of which 70% comes from the EU.

It is not just customs, ECMT* permits for lorries to carry goods internationally will be required. For UK operators these are limited to less than 5% of the number of licences currently issued. If that scenario becomes reality, most UK operators will unable to go and get the goods themselves. Without special arrangements EU operators will also need to use ECMT permits.

British hauliers that make international journeys will be forced out of business, causing irreparable damage to the supply chain. The foods we take for granted, oranges from Spain for example will become an expensive luxury. Supply and demand for basic foodstuffs could even mean the introduction of food rationing. Is this just scaremongering? No. Could it be the death knell for the thousands of hauliers that deliver 98% of the UK economy? Quite possibly. B

A Brexit without a deal will put thousands of HGV drivers out of a job and millions without the food they have come to expect. With just over 6 months to go until the UK leaves the EU, the time for political grandstanding is over. UK hauliers need practical solutions to resolve practical problems.

Notes to Editors

An ECMT permit (European Conference of Ministers of Transport) is needed to operate lorries above 3.5 tonnes on international journeys where other arrangements do not exist. (EU and other bilateral agreements cover most trips now, the EU Community Licences that allow lorry movement now within the EU will cease to be valid when the UK leaves the EU).

ECMT permits are valid for one calendar year and allow an unlimited number of journeys within that period. The UK does not currently issue monthly permits.

Permits may be transferred between vehicles but are valid for only one vehicle at a time. The permit and a log book must be kept on board the lorry for the whole journey.

There are limited numbers of ECMT permits allowed to be issued by the UK – if every permit was issued to a Euro VI lorry no more than 1,224 UK lorries could work on UK – EU trade. (this is less than 5% the number of Community Licences used by UK international operators now).

Transiting through EU States to places outside the EU may also require use of ECMT permits.

Without special arrangements for EU lorries they will require ECMT permits to enter or transit through the UK. These are limited by ECMT quota too.

Additional Data

In the past year 4.8 million driver-accompanied freight vehicles moved between the UK and Europe. Around 4 million of these movements were by ferry through Dover or by shuttle through the Channel Tunnel.
According to HMRC, around 99% of these did not require any customs clearance process at all, the can lorries simply drive straight onto the road network on arrival.
Customs controls do not have to take place at the border. There are also checks on agricultural produce that will need to take place at Border Inspection Posts in the event of a no deal.

I would add that it's quite possible that Dover won't get clogged with lorries...because they won't turn up. If international hauliers become convinced that a hard Brexit is in the offing, then - if contracts allow - they'll enforce a cut-off date, possibly some time in the last week of March 2019, in which no further deliveries will be accepted for the UK. This would allow them to get all their lorries, cargo containers, and other such assets out of the UK before customs checks start. Letting them get stuck in a queue, whether to enter or leave the UK, is bad for business either way.

Cue empty shelves, possibly before April 1st if panic buying sets in.

[Zaune]

God I hope the Leave voters get eaten before I do...

[EnterpriseSovereign]

God I hope the Leave voters get eaten before I do...

And that the first is Farage! But I doubt it- that man is a cockroach.

[His Divine Shadow]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... ies-labour

“We are a dead party,” says Nick Denys, a councillor from Hillingdon and head of policy for the Tory Workers group, whose other members include Ruth Davidson and Robert Halfon. “Even our membership is literally dying. What do we have to offer families of working age?” And that is a key question. Because the problems facing this party are fundamental – and they have been made by Tories.

Smack-bang in the middle of a crisis of capitalism, May has positioned the Tories as the stalwarts of capitalism. While the country cries out for more money, she carries on cutting spending. Such astounding blockheadedness is compounded when the prime minister who told a struggling nurse last year that “there is no magic money tree” boasts this week of her plans for a £120m festival of Brexit. You can see the damagedone by May right outside the conference hall where she will speak on Wednesday. West Midlands mayor Andy Street says the cuts “have gone far enough”; local police say they are close to “breaking point”. Big West Midlands businesses such as the carmaker Jaguar Land Rover warn of the harm that would be done by a no-deal Brexit.

Underlying this is the deep-rooted problem that the programme pushed by the Conservatives since the 1980s simply hasn’t worked for the very people who used to vote for them. Margaret Thatcher promised a shareholder democracy – but individual ownership of shares is below where it was when she began her privatisations. She pledged a country of homeowners – but home ownership in England has fallen to its lowest point since 1985.

What Tory policies have done is concentrate wealth, power and opportunity in ever-fewer hands – thus cannibalising their voter base. Party grandees sometimes talk about an electoral ladder from youthful firebrand to grey-haired Conservatism. You get a job, you buy a house, get into middle management – and as you get more of a stake in society you become more reactionary. Or so the theory goes. Except every one of those rungs is now broken. Graduates can’t get graduate-level jobs. Settling down is almost impossibly expensive. No wonder the natural age of Labour voters keeps rising.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Boris Johnson totally did not just launch a leadership bid for the Tories; he's the last idiot I'd want replacing Theresa May.

[The Jester]

It takes a special kind of idiot to attempt wresting control of this sinking ship. I wouldn't be surprised if May pulled a Cameron.

[The Jester]

It has come to my attention that UK citizens living in Europe were essentially denied a vote during the referendum. WTF?!

[EnterpriseSovereign]

It has come to my attention that UK citizens living in Europe were essentially denied a vote during the referendum. WTF?!

You mean this?

[The Romulan Republic]

It has come to my attention that UK citizens living in Europe were essentially denied a vote during the referendum. WTF?!

Because who gives a shit about democracy?

Between that and Cambridge Analytica's bullshit, any rational person would declare this referendum illegitimate.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

It has come to my attention that UK citizens living in Europe were essentially denied a vote during the referendum. WTF?!

Because who gives a shit about democracy?

Between that and Cambridge Analytica's bullshit, any rational person would declare this referendum illegitimate.

Brexit bunch won't have any of that. they don't seem to understand that the democracy pendulum swings both ways since it means people can have their say if they change their minds.

Whenever I ask them which form of Brexit was voted fot, they trot out the same "take control of our borders/laws" bullshit.

[Tribble]

It has come to my attention that UK citizens living in Europe were essentially denied a vote during the referendum. WTF?!

Because who gives a shit about democracy?

Between that and Cambridge Analytica's bullshit, any rational person would declare this referendum illegitimate.

Brexit bunch won't have any of that. they don't seem to understand that the democracy pendulum swings both ways since it means people can have their say if they change their minds.

Whenever I ask them which form of Brexit was voted fot, they trot out the same "take control of our borders/laws" bullshit.

I get the impression that people like Johnson want as much chaos and misery as possible because that's just more things they can blame the EU/immigrants/remainers for. They'd rather reign in hell than serve in heaven.

[The Jester]

You mean this?

Yup. Between voter disenfranchisement, illegal election overspending and illegal campaigning you had a referendum that rivals something you'd expect out of the US.

Whenever I ask them which form of Brexit was voted fot, they trot out the same "take control of our borders/laws" bullshit.

I wish I had the skills to make a Brexit .gif out of the blagging the bookies scene from Snatch. "All treaties cease."

I get the impression that people like Johnson want as much chaos and misery as possible because that's just more things they can blame the EU/immigrants/remainers for. They'd rather reign in hell than serve in heaven.

That part of their brains that was designed a long time ago to identify threats has to understand that it's potentially their backs up against the wall if there's civil unrest.

[madd0ct0r]

Excellent article in lrb on myths and story telling.

https://www.lrb.co.uk/v40/n19/james-mee ... nglishness

ames Meek

Of the two folk-myths bound up with Englishness, the myth of St George and the myth of Robin Hood, the myth of St George is simpler. Robin Hood is a process; St George is an event. Robin Hood steals from the rich, which is difficult, to give to the poor, which is trickier still, and has to keep on doing it over and over; but St George kills the dragon, and that’s it. Before the dragon is slain, the people are tyrannised. They live in a state of misery, fear and humiliation. When the dragon is slain, their problems disappear. The slaying of the dragon is quick, easy to remember, and easy to celebrate. Robin Hood is justice; St George is victory. Slow, complicated, boring Robin Hood-like achievements such as a national health service, progressive taxation and universal education yield in the folk-narrative of England to St George-like releases, often involving the beating by the English, or the British, of the non-English, or the non-British: the destruction of the Spanish Armada, Napoleon’s defeat at Waterloo, Geoff Hurst’s hat-trick against Germany in 1966. The vote on whether Britain should leave the European Union was sold to the electorate and bought by many as a St George moment.

....
The Brexiteers’ opponents, the pro-EU ideologues of the Remain camp, don’t have that mythic simplification to fall back on. They see themselves, in general, as rational, enlightened people, aspiring to a universal morality. They are liberals. They endorse the principle of the right to cultural self-determination not just for the native English, but for all peoples, the Greenland Inuit included. At the same time, they support other abstract, universal principles: women’s rights, sexual minority rights, ethnic minority rights, animal rights, children’s rights, environmental protection, migrants’ rights, equal opportunities, education for all, democracy, free trade, free movement of people, free movement of capital. These two idealistic strands are in deep contradiction with each other. A belief in the imperative to conserve the traditional, authentic and distinctive in local cultures clashes with a fervent promotion of universal rights and freedoms. This is the liberal bourgeois dilemma: the irreconcilability of the desires for universality and particularity. Unlike their traditionalist counterparts, such as the Brexiteers, liberals do not have a myth to smooth over the contradictions in their case. It is right that the Inuit of Greenland live their authentic native lives, true to their place and their heritage, hand-butchering their ursine quarry and hauling the meat home to their families. Would we prefer them to eat imported chicken? At the same time, it is right that the polar bear be protected, for the whole world’s sake, for the sake of our children. Menaced by climate change, the bears need to be saved from the hunters. Save the hunters; save the bears. Where is the myth that can encompass this?
[\quote]

What is the myth that can cover both?

[The Jester]

The essay brings the words "Mission: Accomplished" to mind. But that's not a myth. Nor that far back.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Oh, yeah. Just to remind everyone of what the stakes are here[...]

If you want to be scared, check out the EU Preparedness Notices. However bad you think Brexit may be, it's actually much worse.

As another example, read the notice on Air Transport.

As of the withdrawal date, the operating licences granted to airlines by the United Kingdom Civil Aviation Authority will no longer be valid EU operating licences.

[...]

Air carriers of the United Kingdom will no longer enjoy traffic rights under any air transport agreement to which the Union is a party, be it to or from the territory of the United Kingdom, be it to or from the territory of any of the EU Member States

Air carriers of the United Kingdom will no longer have access to designation/traffic rights so far available under the bilateral air transport agreements between EU Member States and a third country on account of the principle of EU designation accepted by the third country concerned.

[...]

Air carriers of countries which are not Member States of the EU will no longer benefit from access to traffic rights to or from the territory of the United Kingdom, or any other rights where these have been granted to their country under any air transport agreement to which the Union is a party.

Air safety.

In accordance with Article 20 of the Basic Regulation6, the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) carries out the functions and tasks of the state of design on behalf of Member States with regard to the type certificates for products7, certificates for parts and appliances, and certificates for design organisations. Such certificates issued by EASA to persons and organisations located in the United Kingdom will therefore no longer be valid in the EU as of the withdrawal date. The products, parts and appliances concerned will no longer be considered as certified in accordance with Article 5 of the Basic Regulation.

Took longer than I thought, only now has the news cottoned on to this fact.

[Juubi Karakuchi]

I get the impression that people like Johnson want as much chaos and misery as possible because that's just more things they can blame the EU/immigrants/remainers for. They'd rather reign in hell than serve in heaven.

That part of their brains that was designed a long time ago to identify threats has to understand that it's potentially their backs up against the wall if there's civil unrest.

I may have gone too far in claiming that a Hard Brexit would stop the trucks rolling. But at at the very least the hauliers will charge more for the inconvenience. It comes down to a toss-up between empty shelves and shelves full of food, medicine, and other goods that people can't afford.

But then again, what will civil unrest involve? It's a question that's been tormenting me for some time, and one I'm reluctant to speculate on without looking like an internet tough guy, or certain former members of this forum.