Brexit and General UK politics thread

[EnterpriseSovereign]

I get the impression that people like Johnson want as much chaos and misery as possible because that's just more things they can blame the EU/immigrants/remainers for. They'd rather reign in hell than serve in heaven.

That part of their brains that was designed a long time ago to identify threats has to understand that it's potentially their backs up against the wall if there's civil unrest.

I may have gone too far in claiming that a Hard Brexit would stop the trucks rolling. But at at the very least the hauliers will charge more for the inconvenience. It comes down to a toss-up between empty shelves and shelves full of food, medicine, and other goods that people can't afford.

But then again, what will civil unrest involve? It's a question that's been tormenting me for some time, and one I'm reluctant to speculate on without looking like an internet tough guy, or certain former members of this forum.

What immediately comes to mind is the riots of 2011, although that particular clusterfuck was kicked off by the cops shooting Mark Duggan. Things were one step short of martial law in the cities affected.

[The Jester]

SNIP Project FEAR MARK 2.0

Took longer than I thought, only now has the news cottoned on to this fact.

The UK government was specifically delaying the release of their own advisories. Likely to delay people from going, "Hang on a second..."

Now the strategy appears to be, "No, no, no, no. It'll all be fine. These are incredibly tough and complicated negotiations, but they'll all be worked out at the last second." Because they cannot fathom a world in which legal frameworks can produce catastrophes...

Fact is, you have about 3 days without an emergency European council meeting. Recent headlines don't look promising.

I may have gone too far in claiming that a Hard Brexit would stop the trucks rolling. But at at the very least the hauliers will charge more for the inconvenience. It comes down to a toss-up between empty shelves and shelves full of food, medicine, and other goods that people can't afford.

All treaties cease. Including the ones that enable cross-border insurance to work. So while truck drivers may be able to legally drive in Europe if they have an International Drivers Permit (which is fairly cheap and easy to obtain), they don't have a means to acquire 3rd party insurance while operating on European motorways. You also don't have the storage facilities to operate in a world without JIT deliveries.

But then again, what will civil unrest involve? It's a question that's been tormenting me for some time, and one I'm reluctant to speculate on without looking like an internet tough guy, or certain former members of this forum.

What's about to happen is so far away from how we understand society to function that in some ways I sympathise with the inability of Brexiteers to fathom the consequences. What's projected is a downward fall in the UK economy that makes 2008 look relatively minor. WTO models project the end of the UK agrifoods industry within 18-24 months. The UK is home to some of the poorest regions within the EU15. A large downturn isn't going to give them a lot of places to go in what they can do next. An Irish hard border is also going to bring the radicals back out. And they're going to have a lot of fuel brought on by the projected downturn. Gibraltar is fucked. Nobody knows what happens to 1.3 million UK expats within Europe. Nobody knows what happens to the 3.8 million EU expats in the UK.

In short, it'll look like nothing you've ever seen before. But we do know it'll be big and wholly unpleasant.

[The Jester]

Double post.

[Juubi Karakuchi]

What immediately comes to mind is the riots of 2011, although that particular clusterfuck was kicked off by the cops shooting Mark Duggan. Things were one step short of martial law in the cities affected.

I have a feeling it will be far worse than that.

I may have gone too far in claiming that a Hard Brexit would stop the trucks rolling. But at at the very least the hauliers will charge more for the inconvenience. It comes down to a toss-up between empty shelves and shelves full of food, medicine, and other goods that people can't afford.

All treaties cease. Including the ones that enable cross-border insurance to work. So while truck drivers may be able to legally drive in Europe if they have an International Drivers Permit (which is fairly cheap and easy to obtain), they don't have a means to acquire 3rd party insurance while operating on European motorways. You also don't have the storage facilities to operate in a world without JIT deliveries.

But then again, what will civil unrest involve? It's a question that's been tormenting me for some time, and one I'm reluctant to speculate on without looking like an internet tough guy, or certain former members of this forum.

What's about to happen is so far away from how we understand society to function that in some ways I sympathise with the inability of Brexiteers to fathom the consequences. What's projected is a downward fall in the UK economy that makes 2008 look relatively minor. WTO models project the end of the UK agrifoods industry within 18-24 months. The UK is home to some of the poorest regions within the EU15. A large downturn isn't going to give them a lot of places to go in what they can do next. An Irish hard border is also going to bring the radicals back out. And they're going to have a lot of fuel brought on by the projected downturn. Gibraltar is fucked. Nobody knows what happens to 1.3 million UK expats within Europe. Nobody knows what happens to the 3.8 million EU expats in the UK.

In short, it'll look like nothing you've ever seen before. But we do know it'll be big and wholly unpleasant.

The JIT delivery issue is the big one in the immediate term. The government's own 'Armageddon' scenario has food running out in Cornwall and Scotland within two days of a Hard Brexit, and petrol and medicine running out nationwide in two weeks. The NFU has been warning that in a Hard Brexit scenario, if food imports are cut off, Britain will run out of food in August. Going on this basis, other parts of the UK will likely run out of food within a week unless they have substantial local supplies, such as rural areas where the food is actually grown.

Then we have trouble. If there's one thing that will make even the most docile or apathetic population kick off, it's hunger, or the serious prospect of it. Britain already has a food poverty problem, with four million children living in households that cannot afford a healthy diet (in accordance with official advice). That translates into a lot of parents/adult relatives/guardians/family friends who may react very badly if there is suddenly no food at all.

As for long-term effects, a great deal depends on what sort of deal any future government manages to get. It will likely involve the government falling on its knees and begging for any kind of trade deal; which will not go well for British farming or industries. The least-worst option is to effectively capitulate and give the EU whatever it wants on substantive issues (Irish border, etc) in return for the Norway Option; though this could still be political suicide for a Tory PM. If the government wants necessaries like food or medicine quickly, and without giving the EU what it wants, they will have to ask for emergency aid; if they can bear the humiliation.

[The Romulan Republic]

Prolonged nation-wide food, fuel and medicine shortages is about the closest thing you can get to a guarantee of either a fascist uprising, a socialist uprising, or both.

[Zaune]

The JIT delivery issue is the big one in the immediate term. The government's own 'Armageddon' scenario has food running out in Cornwall and Scotland within two days of a Hard Brexit, and petrol and medicine running out nationwide in two weeks. The NFU has been warning that in a Hard Brexit scenario, if food imports are cut off, Britain will run out of food in August. Going on this basis, other parts of the UK will likely run out of food within a week unless they have substantial local supplies, such as rural areas where the food is actually grown.

Then we have trouble. If there's one thing that will make even the most docile or apathetic population kick off, it's hunger, or the serious prospect of it. Britain already has a food poverty problem, with four million children living in households that cannot afford a healthy diet (in accordance with official advice). That translates into a lot of parents/adult relatives/guardians/family friends who may react very badly if there is suddenly no food at all.

As for long-term effects, a great deal depends on what sort of deal any future government manages to get. It will likely involve the government falling on its knees and begging for any kind of trade deal; which will not go well for British farming or industries. The least-worst option is to effectively capitulate and give the EU whatever it wants on substantive issues (Irish border, etc) in return for the Norway Option; though this could still be political suicide for a Tory PM. If the government wants necessaries like food or medicine quickly, and without giving the EU what it wants, they will have to ask for emergency aid; if they can bear the humiliation.

Or they can just not bother doing anything at all and blame the EU for everything when the shit hits the fan, which would be pretty consistent with their approach thus far. They might even get away with it.

I think it's just as well I've decided against seeking further treatment for my chronic depression. If it wasn't for the low-key suicidal ideation I'd have a lot more trouble keeping a stiff upper lip right now.

[The Romulan Republic]

I honestly wonder what the hell the cons are even trying to do here? Do they just not believe all of the projected consequences to their economy and infrastructure? Have they that thoroughly bought their own propaganda? Or are they actively trying to destroy their own country? 'Cause it almost has to be one or the other.

[Zaune]

I honestly wonder what the hell the cons are even trying to do here? Do they just not believe all of the projected consequences to their economy and infrastructure? Have they that thoroughly bought their own propaganda? Or are they actively trying to destroy their own country? 'Cause it almost has to be one or the other.

At least one moderately well-respected journalist thinks there's a high-level conspiracy to use the No-Deal omniclusterfuck as a Reichstag Fire moment and ram through a lot of emergency powers. (Source.) Personally, I lean more towards the simpler explanation that the Conservative Party are only listening to the people who tell them what they want to hear.

[The Jester]

At least one moderately well-respected journalist thinks there's a high-level conspiracy to use the No-Deal omniclusterfuck as a Reichstag Fire moment and ram through a lot of emergency powers. (Source.) Personally, I lean more towards the simpler explanation that the Conservative Party are only listening to the people who tell them what they want to hear.

The British government aims to prevent France and other EU countries from properly preparing for no deal by continuing to falsely engage in the negotiations in bad faith, keeping the EU27 from moving from early stage plans to contingency measures as long as possible.

Anybody with any knowledge about the situation know the EU are prepared. They've allocated the resources to actually plan contingencies in the case of a no-deal and are reasonably prepared for that eventuality. The UK, on the other hand, have failed to implement even basic project management steps. Bit hard to have a conspiracy if you have no organisation.

A much simpler narrative is that you have a very delicate balance of power that's propping up the government. And that balance is at odds with the EU's legal requirements of maintaining the single market. Either they accept the EU's proposal to have Northern Ireland remain a part of the single market--in which case the government falls as the DUP withdraws support, and they have no deal--or they have no deal.

I think it's just as well I've decided against seeking further treatment for my chronic depression. If it wasn't for the low-key suicidal ideation I'd have a lot more trouble keeping a stiff upper lip right now.

I recommend taking every action you can to campaign for a second referendum. Write to your MP. Every day, if you have the time.

This also caught my eye the other day. Not because it's particularly remarkable in itself, but mostly because it highlights the number of negotiations that aren't happening. All treaties cease.

[madd0ct0r]

If food ran out in scotland, you will have scottish parliment declare emergency succession and joinification to EU within days. It's a pity it's this time of year. Bit hard to get an emergency veg garden going.

[Bedlam]

I recommend taking every action you can to campaign for a second referendum.

But do we actually have the option to stay in the EU now? My understanding of the EU's position at the beginning of this was that applying to leave was not reversible because if it was it would give the UK a stronger bargaining position if we didn't get a better deal than we currently had we could just stick to the current situation.

If food ran out in scotland, you will have scottish parliment declare emergency succession and joinification to EU within days.

And this would do what, even if it was legally possible? Just saying we want to rejoin the EU doesn't make it so, even if the EU agreed it would be years before Scotland would be a member again if at all.

[Zaune]

If food ran out in scotland, you will have scottish parliment declare emergency succession and joinification to EU within days. It's a pity it's this time of year. Bit hard to get an emergency veg garden going.

Unfortunately, Scotland can't actually do that without causing some issues with their EU membership, because at least one other member-state would rather not set a precedent that their own separatist movement could use against them. And that's if Westminster respond by shrugging and waving them goodbye, which is possible but not very likely.

[Tribble]

If food ran out in scotland, you will have scottish parliment declare emergency succession and joinification to EU within days. It's a pity it's this time of year. Bit hard to get an emergency veg garden going.

Unfortunately, Scotland can't actually do that without causing some issues with their EU membership, because at least one other member-state would rather not set a precedent that their own separatist movement could use against them. And that's if Westminster respond by shrugging and waving them goodbye, which is possible but not very likely.

They could apply for EEA / EFTA membership though, which might be granted if circumstances were extreme enough. Or at least some kind of special customs agreement.

[Zaune]

Possibly, but again that would rather depend on Scotland and the rest of the UK parting ways quickly, cleanly and by mutual consent. If Scotland secedes unilaterally, unless control of the uniformed services is already breaking down then the central government is going to dispute it vigorously. And the EU even being seen to be taking sides in a matter of internal security will not be well-received.

[The Jester]

But do we actually have the option to stay in the EU now? My understanding of the EU's position at the beginning of this was that applying to leave was not reversible because if it was it would give the UK a stronger bargaining position if we didn't get a better deal than we currently had we could just stick to the current situation.

It actually doesn't matter what the EU's position may be. What matters is what's legal--though for the record, the EU would grant an extension to hold a second referendum. And according to Article 50's author, all May needs to do is to show up with another letter.

Unfortunately, Scotland can't actually do that without causing some issues with their EU membership, because at least one other member-state would rather not set a precedent that their own separatist movement could use against them. And that's if Westminster respond by shrugging and waving them goodbye, which is possible but not very likely.

There's also the minor issue that the UK's nuclear arsenal docks in Scotland...

[Zaune]

Quite. Which is not an issue in the event of a somewhat amicable separation (the SNP isn't interested in a nuclear deterrent and Scotland's economy couldn't support a missile submarine anyway), but if the separation is not amicable... Well, yeah.

In short, there's a strictly limited number of ways Brexit can get any worse at this point, but a civil war breaking out is definitely one of them.

[The Jester]

More an issue of where you going to move them afterwards.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

May is presenting her latest proposal to the EU. The results are not exactly encouraging. I've taken to saying to Brexiteers, "How'd you solve the Irish border problem?".

[The Romulan Republic]

If food ran out in scotland, you will have scottish parliment declare emergency succession and joinification to EU within days. It's a pity it's this time of year. Bit hard to get an emergency veg garden going.

Unfortunately, Scotland can't actually do that without causing some issues with their EU membership, because at least one other member-state would rather not set a precedent that their own separatist movement could use against them. And that's if Westminster respond by shrugging and waving them goodbye, which is possible but not very likely.

I'm not a supporter of Scottish secession, but I'm not sure what exactly Westminster could do about it if Scotland was absolutely committed to leaving as quickly as possible, unless they're prepared to actually roll tanks into Scotland and treat it as an occupied territory (ie, fight a civil war).

[Batman]

I think he's more referring to certain continental parties having a problem with one part of the county unilaterally deciding they're an independent nation now

[The Romulan Republic]

I suppose, yeah. I know Spain for one wouldn't want to set the precedent of secessionist regions being welcomed into the EU with open arms.

[Zaune]

I'm not a supporter of Scottish secession, but I'm not sure what exactly Westminster could do about it if Scotland was absolutely committed to leaving as quickly as possible, unless they're prepared to actually roll tanks into Scotland and treat it as an occupied territory (ie, fight a civil war).

I think he's more referring to certain continental parties having a problem with one part of the county unilaterally deciding they're an independent nation now.

Pretty much, yeah. Spain would be somewhat annoyed if the EU officially endorsed secession by extra-legal means; it'd be hard to stonewall their own separatists by insisting they're totally open to legal separation but refusing to actually enact the necessary laws if that happened.

Although it must be said that there's a very real possibility of the current government deciding to do exactly what TRR suggested, despite the fact the Army would already be heavily committed to humanitarian relief and/or riot suppression in the rest of the UK by the time the situation deteriorated that far.

[Juubi Karakuchi]

I don't see Nicola Sturgeon attempting a UDI at this stage; except in the face of extreme provocation. As has been said, it would be legally problematic both for Scotland and the EU. Also, she really doesn't have to. The way things are go, biding her time will bring her what she needs.

An easier and safer option would be simply to ask for emergency aid. If the EU (or someone else) starts providing food aid quickly, then Sturgeon will look good for having dealt with the situation swiftly and decisively. It won't resolve things immediately, but it will accelerate the process of calming things down.

Of course, this assumes Westminister will just allow this to go ahead. It's not inconcievable that the government will throw a fit and try to block any delivery of aid to Scotland, on the basis that Sturgeon and the Scottish Assembly have no right to engage in such matters. This could, in the extreme, lead to the unedifying spectacle of British military assets being deployed to block or seize aid shipments. The only alternatives would be to back off and let the shipments pass - thus, by implication, legitimizing the Scottish government - or else giving in and making the formal request themselves.

[His Divine Shadow]

Mark Blyth explained pretty well what would happen to Scotland in the EU as it's own state. Basically the Scottish government operates on a big deficit that is made up by transfers from the south. And there's nothing thats gets the EU to see red like deficit spending. There would be imposed austerity measures. The term Greece of the North comes to mind... Happy days ahead for scotland.

[Zaune]

Mark Blyth explained pretty well what would happen to Scotland in the EU as it's own state. Basically the Scottish government operates on a big deficit that is made up by transfers from the south. And there's nothing thats gets the EU to see red like deficit spending. There would be imposed austerity measures. The term Greece of the North comes to mind... Happy days ahead for scotland.

Worth noting however that compared to a US state the Scottish government has very limited control over taxation. I'm sure the SNP would be more than happy to do away with the deficit simply by clamping down on tax-evasion and putting the top-band income and corporation tax rates up by a couple of percent, and probably make up the remaining shortfall with sales tax on legal weed.