UKRAINE WAR - 1 YEAR AND GOING.

[Lord Revan]

Well, overnight things have gotten interesting. Evgeny Prigozhin (the guy behind the Wagner private military company of Bakhmut infamy) gave an interview, which has been translated on twitter, where he basically says that the war with Ukraine was started on false pretenses to enrich the oligarch class in Russia.

A few hours after that, he claimed that the Russian Ministry of Defense struck his outfit with missiles and killed some thousands, and called for an armed uprising against the Ministry of Defense (and Shoigu in particular). He also said that Wagner would begin a justice march against those who've murdered hundreds of thousands of Russians in the meat grinder that this war has been.

The wartranslated twitter account is pretty good, and I would recommend reviewing the past few hours of his posts to get caught up.

I've trolled through a few other twitter accounts that I trust, and the general consensus at the moment is:

• This is real, and Prigozhin _has_ launched an armed rebellion.

• Nothing has super duper really happened yet? At least that was the case an hour ago. Jimmy here has posted a thread of Wager units apparently seizing the Southern Military District building in Rostov-on-Don. This doesn't look like a nothing burger to me.

• Prigozhin doesn't really have a chance, and he's probably been driven to this in desperation due to recent events (MOD trying to force Wagner to sign official military contracts to integrate them with the regular army). A lot of Russia's senior military leaders have lined up with Putin and have told Wagner to stand down, so there doesn't seem to be a split in the elite.

I'm in a wait and see mode, personally. It's a good development for Ukraine, certainly, but I wouldn't assume that this will lead to some sudden collapse.

While this probably won't lead to sudden collapse depending on how long Wagner can hang on before they're crushed, it can lead to collapse/withdraw as you can really fight a 2 front war when even 1 front is causing you issues especially if one of those fronts is within your logistical base.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Russia can't use its nuclear weapons against these guys without irradiating Russia itself.

[KraytKing]

Aaaand it was nothing? Wagner packed up and turned around. Prigozhin said they would, and it has been confirmed by ground-level footage that tanks and mercs have abandoned their positions in Rostov and Voronezh. What the fuck? All of this for...nothing? Awaiting more news in the coming days, I'm curious to see what changed Prigozhin's mind. And to see if those Russian Army units who joined him are quick to settle back down, or if they still have an axe to grind and the disruption might continue.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

We can only hope, talk about a damp squib.

[Broomstick]

I'm thinking Progozhin cut a deal for himself and largely threw his troops under the bus. Or at least left them to fend for themselves.

It's....weird.

[GrosseAdmiralFox]

I'm thinking Progozhin cut a deal for himself and largely threw his troops under the bus. Or at least left them to fend for themselves.

It's....weird.

I've heard that Progozhin cut a deal for both Wagner and himself. Progozhin is exiled to Africa while Wagner gets pardoned because 'following orders'.

[Highlord Laan]

God dammit. Would have been amazing and hilarious to see the worthless shits collapse into civil war.

Ah, well. Here's hoping poot-poot takes a swing at Estonia, or cracks a reactor something.

ARTICLE 5: Don't let your dreams be dreams!

[Ralin]

I'm thinking Progozhin cut a deal for himself and largely threw his troops under the bus. Or at least left them to fend for themselves.

It's....weird.

What kind of deal could Prigozhin make that he can trust without his troops to back him up though?

[KraytKing]

I don't think we're in the clear for a civil war just yet, despite Wagner being allegedly dealt with. The grievances Wagner and Prigozhin raised are real. Wagner may have been "just following orders," but the Russian army troops that declared for him weren't. Scattered, inconclusive reporting is that there were defections of whole BTGs to the half-cocked revolution. Obviously, I doubt they were included in any dealmaking and are probably going to face serious consequences. But also, I don't think they're going to give up just because Wagner bowed out. There might still be a fracture within the military, or among the elite, even if this episode concludes.

For now, footage seems to have dropped off, so Wagner and the MoD really are standing down. A wild ride. Probably knocked Russia back a step or two in the war--Wagner is lost as an asset, mobile reserve was likely drawn off, several aircraft and quite a bit of ammunition expended. But nothing revolutionary. If it had continued for a few more weeks, Ukraine might have bagged Crimea, but for now I think we should still be cautious in our optimism for just this current round of offensives.

[Zaune]

The good news is, this means Putin has not yet been replaced by someone even bloody worse.

[LadyTevar]

The good news is, this means Putin has not yet been replaced by someone even bloody worse.

Right now it's ASSUMED Putin was on the private jet that took off and "vanished off radar" near Tver, northwest of Moscow.
Kremlin sources have declared that there will be no public addresses from Putin 'in the near future'.

As I said in the "Coup" thread, Prigozhin has also not been seen since Saturday, when he was filmed getting into a car amid cheers of local Rostov residents. As Rostov was still under a "No Fly" zone, Prigozhin would have had to travel either to Sochi or Volgograd to catch a plane, roughly 400km either way.
This is, of course, assuming that he was heading straight for Belarus.

Possibilities for Prigozhin's actual destination?
1. Running off to hide, maybe in Africa where he's got assets.
2. Private meeting with Putin (planned or otherwise).
3. Some Wagner hideout where the rest of his money's hidden, as the KGB grabbed a lot of cash in their Raid.

[bilateralrope]

The good news is, this means Putin has not yet been replaced by someone even bloody worse.

Right now it's ASSUMED Putin was on the private jet that took off and "vanished off radar" near Tver, northwest of Moscow.
Kremlin sources have declared that there will be no public addresses from Putin 'in the near future'.

If someone shot down Putin's plane, how long would it take news of that to leak out ?

As I said in the "Coup" thread, Prigozhin has also not been seen since Saturday, when he was filmed getting into a car amid cheers of local Rostov residents. As Rostov was still under a "No Fly" zone, Prigozhin would have had to travel either to Sochi or Volgograd to catch a plane, roughly 400km either way.
This is, of course, assuming that he was heading straight for Belarus.

Possibilities for Prigozhin's actual destination?
1. Running off to hide, maybe in Africa where he's got assets.
2. Private meeting with Putin (planned or otherwise).
3. Some Wagner hideout where the rest of his money's hidden, as the KGB grabbed a lot of cash in their Raid.

Secret meeting would be my first guess. We shall see who emerges alive from it.

[wautd]

Aaaand it was nothing?

...apart from Putin looking absolutely weak and not in control.
The reasons behind the coup attempt are still there, so it's likely it'll be tried again by another (or the same faction) in the future

For comedy sake, I'm curious to see how Russian Goebbels Vladimir Solovyov is going to spin this

[Broomstick]

Right now it's ASSUMED Putin was on the private jet that took off and "vanished off radar" near Tver, northwest of Moscow.

By that I assume they mean "turned off their transponder and by that means dropped off secondary radar, making them much less visible".

Primary radar would still pick them up (unless they crashed, but that generally gets some notice, and these days usually gets on line quickly what with all the camera phones) but primary radar picks up everything so the screens tend to be cluttered up and hard to decipher. Hence transponders and secondary radar which filters out a lot of noise.

Once they do that it becomes a lot easier to change course and go somewhere to hide.

I have very mixed feelings about Putin not being visible in public.

[Zaune]

I have very mixed feelings about Putin not being visible in public.

It probably doesn't prove that much in itself. Chances are his security detail bundled him aboard VVS One as soon as shit started going down, and they're keeping very quiet about exactly where he is until any potentially disloyal elements within the military have been dealt with.

[LadyTevar]

Right now it's ASSUMED Putin was on the private jet that took off and "vanished off radar" near Tver, northwest of Moscow.

By that I assume they mean "turned off their transponder and by that means dropped off secondary radar, making them much less visible".

Primary radar would still pick them up (unless they crashed, but that generally gets some notice, and these days usually gets on line quickly what with all the camera phones) but primary radar picks up everything so the screens tend to be cluttered up and hard to decipher. Hence transponders and secondary radar which filters out a lot of noise.

Once they do that it becomes a lot easier to change course and go somewhere to hide.

I have very mixed feelings about Putin not being visible in public.

I was figuring it was more "dropped below radar detection" so they could hide where they were headed.

I also am wondering why Putin's still hiding, although we assume he was in touch with Belarus to get (can't spell his name) to broker the deal. There's still a good chance it's quiet because Putin is meeting with Prigozhin, who is also incommunicado. Nothing on his Telecom, no sightings, no word if he's reached Belarus.

[Broomstick]

I was figuring it was more "dropped below radar detection" so they could hide where they were headed.

That's basically treetop height (or even lower) and not practical if your goal is to get a valuable cargo (like Putin) somewhere safely. And that only works where there are trees (or buildings, but same issues with safety) or mountains (again, potential safety issues). If you're over open plains, well, you're visible to primary radar.

Nope, pretty sure it was a matter of turning off the transponder which takes you off secondary radar. That drops you off the sort of websites that monitor civilian flights. Most of those are using ADS-B data anyway, which can also be turned off by flipping a switch in the cockpit.

[madd0c0t0r2]

Right now it's ASSUMED Putin was on the private jet that took off and "vanished off radar" near Tver, northwest of Moscow.

By that I assume they mean "turned off their transponder and by that means dropped off secondary radar, making them much less visible".

Primary radar would still pick them up (unless they crashed, but that generally gets some notice, and these days usually gets on line quickly what with all the camera phones) but primary radar picks up everything so the screens tend to be cluttered up and hard to decipher. Hence transponders and secondary radar which filters out a lot of noise.

Once they do that it becomes a lot easier to change course and go somewhere to hide.

I have very mixed feelings about Putin not being visible in public.

I was figuring it was more "dropped below radar detection" so they could hide where they were headed.

I also am wondering why Putin's still hiding, although we assume he was in touch with Belarus to get (can't spell his name) to broker the deal. There's still a good chance it's quiet because Putin is meeting with Prigozhin, who is also incommunicado. Nothing on his Telecom, no sightings, no word if he's reached Belarus.

BBC describes this as a story with many chapters left to run over the following weeks. Putin might sit tight for good sensible reasons for a while yet.
Plus, if they hustled him to the super secret bunker, they will want time to prepare a new shell game to stop people identifying the super secret bunker when he renemerges

[Ralin]

BBC describes this as a story with many chapters left to run over the following weeks. Putin might sit tight for good sensible reasons for a while yet.
Plus, if they hustled him to the super secret bunker, they will want time to prepare a new shell game to stop people identifying the super secret bunker when he renemerges

Good sensible reasons that don't change the fact that him running at the first sign of danger makes him look like a colossal pussy after decades of building a tough guy image. Especially given that his counterpart stayed in Kiev under bombardment with Spetnaz teams looking to sanction him.

Hell, even Stalin stayed in Moscow when the Nazis were invading!

[Highlord Laan]

BBC describes this as a story with many chapters left to run over the following weeks. Putin might sit tight for good sensible reasons for a while yet.
Plus, if they hustled him to the super secret bunker, they will want time to prepare a new shell game to stop people identifying the super secret bunker when he renemerges

Good sensible reasons that don't change the fact that him running at the first sign of danger makes him look like a colossal pussy after decades of building a tough guy image. Especially given that his counterpart stayed in Kiev under bombardment with Spetnaz teams looking to sanction him.

Hell, even Stalin stayed in Moscow when the Nazis were invading!

And Zelensky stayed in Kyiv even as it was getting hit by missile strikes and had the horde bearing down on it.

[bilateralrope]

BBC describes this as a story with many chapters left to run over the following weeks. Putin might sit tight for good sensible reasons for a while yet.
Plus, if they hustled him to the super secret bunker, they will want time to prepare a new shell game to stop people identifying the super secret bunker when he renemerges

Good sensible reasons that don't change the fact that him running at the first sign of danger makes him look like a colossal pussy after decades of building a tough guy image. Especially given that his counterpart stayed in Kiev under bombardment with Spetnaz teams looking to sanction him.

Hell, even Stalin stayed in Moscow when the Nazis were invading!

Maybe they are also trying to figure out how to convince people that Putin never left Moscow.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Russian president Vladimir Putin says Wagner group were 'taking revenge for failures at the front'

Those involved in the Wagner Group's aborted armed rebellion on Moscow wanted "Russian soldiers to kill each other" and were "taking revenge for their failures at the front", president Vladimir Putin has said in a recorded address.

Speaking for the first time since Saturday's short-lived insurrection, the Russian leader said he would keep his “promise” to members of the mercenary group who “want to go to Belarus”, while others had the choice to sign a contract with the ministry of defence.

Putin thanked nation for unity and Wagner fighters for avoiding "bloodshed" after revolt.

He went on to claim that "neo-Nazis in Kyiv and the West" had wanted Russian soldiers to kill each other.

Earlier, Wagner head Yevgeny Prigozhin has broken his silence after an aborted armed rebellion he staged on Saturday denying the stalled revolt was to overthrow Russia'a president, Vladimir Putin.

Breaking his silence after his revolt, Prigozhin insisted he was acting because "society demanded it".

In an 11-minute audio statement, the 62-year-old Russian oligarch, whose short-lived insurrection ended with retreat after 24 hours, defended the move as an attempt to hold those he said had made mistakes in the war in Ukraine to account.

The mercenary group's chief said they had turned around because they did not want to shed any Russian blood as he railed against the "massive errors" by Moscow in what Russians call "a special military operation".

Prigozhin also voiced concern that his group, that have helped Russia's invasion of Ukraine, would be absorbed by the Russian military.

He claimed civilians supported the march on Saturday, waving Wagner flags and emblems, and that President of Belarus Alexander Grigoryevich Lukashenko had offered to further the work of the Wagner Group.

Prigozhin vowed to take "revenge" on the Russian military over the weekend for what he says is the mistreatment of his troops, and ordered his men to cross over from Ukraine to Russia in order to oust the country's leadership.

Despite this, the greatest challenge to President Putin in his more than two decades in power quickly fizzled out, with the two sides reaching a deal for Prigozhin to go into exile and sound the retreat.

On Monday, Russian media reported a criminal probe against Prigozhin continued, and his whereabouts remained unknown.

Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine, rebuked the West for what not appreciating the danger of the attempted revolt.
He told ITV News: "The disintegration of Russia will be a dangerous challenge. We should be preparing for it now with all our strength."
Western leaders say they are not underestimating the Russians.

Foreign Secretary James Cleverly described the mutiny as an “unprecedented challenge to Putin’s authority" in the Commons, saying "the Russian government’s lies have been exposed by one of President Putin’s own henchman."

President Biden added that the US and NATO played no role in the Wagner group's short uprising and declined to speculate on what it could mean for the war in Ukraine.

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu appeared to make his first public appearance since the rebellion on Monday, as Russian media speculated that he and other top military leaders have lost Putin’s confidence and could be replaced.

Shoigu was shown in video released by the Defence Ministry flying in a helicopter and then attending a meeting with officers at a military headquarters in Ukraine.

The video was widely shown on Russian media, including state-controlled television, although it was unclear when it was filmed.

General Staff chief General Valery Gerasimov, who was a main target of Prigozhin’s alongside Shoigu, has not been seen since the uprising.

President Putin has not appeared in public since the events on Saturday, but a video was broadcast on Monday showing the Russian leader hailing the opening of an international engineering forum.

His address made no mention of the armed rebellion, despite the forum’s host city Tula sitting close to where Wagner forces had reached, and it remains unclear when the footage of Putin broadcast on Monday was actually filmed.

Who is head of the Wagner mercenary group that turned on Russia's army?

Kremlin's scramble to secure Moscow was greeted “with applause” by commanders of Ukraine’s Eastern Group of Forces.

Its spokesperson, Serhii Cherevatiy said: “Soldiers at the front lines are positive about it. Any chaos and disorder on the enemy’s side benefits us.”

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said the government has been "analysing and monitoring" the situation in Ukraine and the tensions between the Russian military leadership and the Wagner group "for some time".

Speaking on Monday, Mr Sunak said: "It's too early to predict with certainty what the consequences of this (weekend) might be, but of course we are always prepared as we would be."

Wagner troops 'building up near Russian border for days' before revolt

The 24-hour mercenary rebellion did not noticeably affect the Russian army's position along the 1,000 kilometre (600-mile) frontline in eastern Ukraine, but it could give the Ukrainians the boost it needs to intensify its counteroffensive, which military leaders have admitted is going slower than expected.

Saturday's events have also severely dented Putin’s reputation as a leader who is willing to ruthlessly punish anyone who challenges his authority - which may open the door for others to challenge.

Nigel Gould-Davies, a senior fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the International Institute for Strategic Affairs, said: “In the short term, it distracted attention from the war and diverted some resources from the front.

"But in the longer term it shows lack of unity among Russia's fighting forces.

“It’s terrible for Russia’s morale. The officers and soldiers alike. It’s very good for Ukraine’s morale.”

Putin wants the Wagner troops to join the regular army or be exiled to Belarus with their commander.

[KraytKing]

Oh that seems like a great idea. Put the rebellious soldiers in a foreign nation with a population unsympathetic to Putin and with their leader. Definitely not going to be a crisis again later, no sir.

[LadyTevar]

Oh that seems like a great idea. Put the rebellious soldiers in a foreign nation with a population unsympathetic to Putin and with their leader. Definitely not going to be a crisis again later, no sir.

Don't forget there's already a TacNuke in Belarus too.

[Ralin]

Oh that seems like a great idea. Put the rebellious soldiers in a foreign nation with a population unsympathetic to Putin and with their leader. Definitely not going to be a crisis again later, no sir.

Assuming that's not an intermediary step towards them fucking off back to Africa and setting up Wagnerville.

I suspect what will happen is they'll retire the Wagner name and make a show of folding their members into the regular army like they said they would while quietly having the core of veterans that make it up follow Prigozhin and go back to handling Putin's interests internationally.