SUPERTHREAD: 2020 United States Elections

[GrandMasterTerwynn]

So, Joe Biden is expected to win South Carolina by a score of about 48.6% to 20.0%, with 91% of precincts reporting. Nearly thirty(!) points. Sanders (and virtually everyone else) performed roughly in-line with expectations; while the majority of polls seriously underrated Biden, suggesting he experienced a huge surge of late-deciding voters. There is simply no way to spin this as anything but bad news for Sanders ... every county in SC is posting blowout victory margins for Biden.

I expect a substantial Super Tuesday bounce for Biden, as the press is probably going to spend the next three days talking about this like it were the second coming of Jesus. It is time for, at least, a couple of candidates in the Not-Sanders lane to have their come-to-Jesus moment and stop being candidates.

(EDIT: Steyer is out. Bloomberg fans, take note.)

Assuming Bloomberg turns out to be a paper tiger, Biden is in good shape in southern states for Super Tuesday, including Texas. Sanders' shot at the nomination is much more in doubt now. When I said that SC wasn't going to matter, I probably wasn't expecting Biden to win it by thirty fucking points. While I still don't expect Biden to come into Milwaukee with the majority of delegates, or even a plurality ... as long as Sanders doesn't come in with a majority, and Bloomberg proves that one can't simply buy the nomination, Biden is (at the moment) in good shape to be the Democratic nominee on the second ballot.

[GrandMasterTerwynn]

Also, anyone with fantasies of Warren dropping out and endorsing Sanders ... keep dreaming. Although, to be fair, she may simply be trying to avoid the embarrassment of losing her home state (which she is in significant danger of doing. Sanders held a couple of big rallies over the border in MA yesterday and today.) Still, as someone who originally presented herself as the unity candidate; she has now officially ceased to have any credible reason to exist as a candidate at all.

[The Romulan Republic]

So, Joe Biden is expected to win South Carolina by a score of about 48.6% to 20.0%, with 91% of precincts reporting. Nearly thirty(!) points. Sanders (and virtually everyone else) performed roughly in-line with expectations; while the majority of polls seriously underrated Biden, suggesting he experienced a huge surge of late-deciding voters. There is simply no way to spin this as anything but bad news for Sanders ... every county in SC is posting blowout victory margins for Biden.

Its not good news for Sanders, obviously, but while certain people will no doubt rush to acclaim Biden the front runner (and break out the toxic old "white Bernie Bros" narrative, as though Nevada, the Latino vote, and young black voters nationwide don't exist), now is a good time to remember that: a) Sanders still has more delegates than Biden, b) Sanders has still won more states than Biden, and c) Sanders is poised to win more delegates on Super Tuesday, especially since California has been early voting for weeks and he has a massive lead there.

This isn't 2016, and Sanders does not necessarily need to win SC to win the nomination. The biggest threat it poses to him is that it, in combination with the still-crowded field, ups the risk of a contested convention.

I expect a substantial Super Tuesday bounce for Biden, as the press is probably going to spend the next three days talking about this like it were the second coming of Jesus. It is time for, at least, a couple of candidates in the Not-Sanders lane to have their come-to-Jesus moment and stop being candidates.

Its a fair question how much this will benefit Biden on Super Tuesday. I expect him to get some bump, but his campaign is cash-strapped right now, and he hasn't had the presence in Super Tuesday states that Sanders has. He also has more rivals in the Center splitting his vote, as you noted above. So I would necessarily anticipate a massive swing in the next three days in Biden's favor.

The really bad news for Sanders, and also ultimately for Biden, is that Biden's renewed viability, combined with the still-heavily-divided field, continues to pose the risk of a contested convention, which would be a disaster for the party at this point. Which is why the one bit of really good news tonight is:

(EDIT: Steyer is out. Bloomberg fans, take note.)

Yeah. The faster this field narrows, the easier I'll breath.

Assuming Bloomberg turns out to be a paper tiger, Biden is in good shape in southern states for Super Tuesday, including Texas.

The recent polling has shown Sanders leading in Texas. SC might shift that. It might not. It will not change the fact that he is going to win California (or if it doesn't, I'll be shocked, and so will even Sanders' harshest critics).

If I were to guess Super Tuesday right now, I'd say Sanders wins Maine, Vermont (by a landslide), likely Colorado and Utah, and California (by a fairly substantial margin), as well as Democrats Abroad (though it votes over the course of a week). He may have a shot in Minnesota and Massachusetts, as nothing about SC was impressive for Warren or Klobuchar. Texas is iffy between him and Biden. Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, North Carolina, and Virginia are likely Biden wins. Not a damn clue about American Samoa or Oklahoma. But these are just my guesses.

That's wouldn't be a knock-out blow to Biden, but it ain't a bad night for Sanders, either.

Sanders' shot at the nomination is much more in doubt now. When I said that SC wasn't going to matter, I probably wasn't expecting Biden to win it by thirty fucking points. While I still don't expect Biden to come into Milwaukee with the majority of delegates, or even a plurality ... as long as Sanders doesn't come in with a majority, and Bloomberg proves that one can't simply buy the nomination, Biden is (at the moment) in good shape to be the Democratic nominee on the second ballot.

Which, frankly, would be a fucking disaster.

If Sanders comes in with the most delegates, and then its given to a Centrist at the convention... I do not think it is an exaggeration to say that there will be a literal riot on the convention floor, and in the city of Milwaukee. Its ever conspiracy theory about the 2016 primary being rigged that never came to pass being suddenly made flesh. Likely followed by several million Sanders supporters defecting to the Greens or Trump, or just staying home. And let me be clear: that would be a deplorable and unjustifiable response on their part, given what we're up against (the literal death of the American republic, and a Presidency that is actively fueling the climate crisis), but it is also an entirely predictable one.

Frankly, any contested convention scenario, Sanders win, Biden win, or anything else, is likely to be a deeply divisive cluster fuck, to say nothing of the advantage Trump will have in being able to essentially campaign unopposed in the general while the Democratic primary continues to late summer. It is hard to imagine Trump losing, in that scenario.

Fortunately, I think you're being a bit premature in your estimation of how much it will damage Sanders. I think Super Tuesday will tell us a lot more on that score, so we'll have to wait three days.

[Darth Yan]

In Cali Biden has NO chance. You need 15% to win delegates and Biden hasn't breached that. At all. In many of the others he won't either. He MAY shore up support in NC and a few southern states but otherwise he's screwed. I'm pretty sure Klobacher is gonna drop out, Buttigeg to. Steyer's already left.

It also depends HOW many delegates Biden has come Milwaukee. If Bernie has 1500 and Biden has 900 Bernie may still come out on top. Some superdelegates may choose to vote for Sanders if they see the way the wind's blowing. Warren may well have to swallow her pride and give Bernie her delegates, though she'll probably try to extract a promise. And even if Biden does win they'll probably have to make some concessions to the progressives

[FireNexus]

My personal hope is that Biden pulls out a bare plurality of delegates. Just so I get to watch Bernie explain why the leader in pledged delegates should not be the nominee because it isn’t him.

[Darth Yan]

Biden's an idiot. he still thinks we can play nice with republicans, and he wants to go back to the way they were before trump, when we really can't.

[The Romulan Republic]

Bad news is FiveThirtyEight now has contested convention at 60% odds.

The one thing that could practically guarantee Trump's reelection without any rigging of the election being required, and the Democrats are gleefully barrelling toward it, because half a dozen assholes are too stubborn and selfish to admit they can't win, or because they're hoping to spike Sanders' chances and anoint a Centrist against the will of the voters.

Jesus Christ. Are we really going to do this? With the fate of the Republic and arguably the planet on the line, we are going to commit suicide as a party rather than nominate Sanders?

And that is the choice. Its going to be Sanders or contested convention, in all likelihood. And contested convention means Trump wins, in all likelihood. I don't care if you like Sanders or not, if those are the choices, and they pretty clearly are, Sanders is the only sane choice.

In Cali Biden has NO chance. You need 15% to win delegates and Biden hasn't breached that. At all.

Which raises the question: is ANYONE over 15% in California but Sanders?

SC is going to suddenly look a lot less important if Bernie wins EVERY SINGLE DELEGATE IN CALIFORNIA.

In many of the others he won't either. He MAY shore up support in NC and a few southern states but otherwise he's screwed. I'm pretty sure Klobacher is gonna drop out, Buttigeg to. Steyer's already left

I pray you're right. Because this field needs to narrow FAST.

I can live with a hard-fought race with Biden. I can even live with Biden being the nominee. But I can't live with the American Republic (and the entire global ecosystem) dying because the Democratic Party effectively blew its own brains out on the convention floor.

My personal hope is that Biden pulls out a bare plurality of delegates. Just so I get to watch Bernie explain why the leader in pledged delegates should not be the nominee because it isn’t him.

Ah, so you want a viciously divisive contested convention, a weak nominee, and Trump to get an additional several months' head start on the general election campaign, just so you can gloat at Sanders and his supporters?

Explain to me again how you are functionally different than a Trumper?

What I want right now is a united party. Sure, I'd like Sanders as the nominee, partly because he's the best candidate and partly because he has a better chance than anyone else (albeit not great, at this point) of averting a contested convention. But if its Biden, so be it. Just let whoever goes to the convention as the leader do so with a majority of delegates. Because any contested convention, regardless of who comes in the leader and who emerges the nominee, is going to be a cluster fuck.

[The Romulan Republic]

The funny thing is, FiveThirtyEight doesn't show any real improvement in Biden's chances. If anything, he's dropped. The only thing that's changed thus far is the odds of a contested convention rising a bit, and Sanders' dropping a bit.

Which means that unless subsequent shifts in polls change that, in purely mathematical, statistical terms, the only real winners tonight were Donald Trump and the Kremlin.

[FireNexus]

Ah, so you want a viciously divisive contested convention, a weak nominee, and Trump to get an additional several months' head start on the general election campaign, just so you can gloat at Sanders and his supporters?

Please, for once, spare me your intolerable self-righteousness. I literally, honestly expect both of them to be dead or medically unfit to run.

And, regardless, I expect that Sanders will not win the Presidency no matter what. So watching him be the rank hypocrite I know he is will at least make me laugh.

Seriously, dude. Just fucking stop with it already. Nobody gives a shit about your prose. We’re assholes bullshitting on a web forum. I know you’re just going to launch into a five paragraph screed about how you’re being persecuted or whatever, but just maybe for once try... not.

[GrandMasterTerwynn]

Assuming Bloomberg turns out to be a paper tiger, Biden is in good shape in southern states for Super Tuesday, including Texas. Sanders' shot at the nomination is much more in doubt now. When I said that SC wasn't going to matter, I probably wasn't expecting Biden to win it by thirty fucking points. While I still don't expect Biden to come into Milwaukee with the majority of delegates, or even a plurality ... as long as Sanders doesn't come in with a majority, and Bloomberg proves that one can't simply buy the nomination, Biden is (at the moment) in good shape to be the Democratic nominee on the second ballot.

An explanation of this logic is in order. In order to win the nomination on the first ballot, a candidate has to receive 1991 of the delegates. If the first ballot doesn't yield a majority, then the superdelegates get to vote on the second ballot; but to become the nominee, a prospective candidate must win a majority of all the delegates at the convention on the second ballot, or 2376.

As of this writing the 538 forecast has now decided that "CONVENTION CHAOS" now has a 60% chance of winning the nomination ... Biden curbstomping Sanders in South Carolina has actually decreased his own odds of scoring a majority of delegates at the convention. The model calls for Sanders to arrive at the convention with an average of 1672 delegates, and Biden to arrive with an average of 1287 delegates. Bloomberg comes in with 590 delegates, Warren comes in with 203, and the rest come in with 225 delegates. Add all these up, and one gets 3977, which is close enough to the 3979 delegates going to Milwaukee, that I'll just use the numbers as-is ...

So, the first ballot is held, Sanders gets the plurality; but obviously 1672 delegates is fewer than 1991. Contested convention, here we go!

Sanders' supporters may demand that the Democratic Convention change the rules again, so the candidate with the most delegates on the first ballot wins the nomination ... but the DNC will have none of it ... Bernie Sanders already had the rules changed once in his favor with this whole two-tiered balloting process. Once all the shouting dies down, the floor of the convention moves onto the second ballot, and now, everything changes.

All delegates, in theory, are released from their candidates, and the 771 or so superdelegates come into play. We'll be generous and assume Warren's delegates all back Sanders; getting him up to 1875 delegates. The others all go to Biden. getting him up to 2102. He only needs to convince 274 of the superdelegates to back him ... the prohibitive majority of which would rather shake hands with their antimatter counterpart than hand the nomination to Bernie Sanders. To be generous to Sanders, we'll say only 75% of the superdelegates back Biden. That means Biden gets 578 out of the 274 he needs, and gets the Democratic nomination with 2680 delegates.

As an aside: In this scenario, a big defection of superdelegates for Sanders seems incredibly unlikely, given their stated antipathy towards Sanders, and the fact that the biggest member of the Democratic donor class (Bloomberg) will be in the room with them. Especially since, in this scenario, a full two-thirds of them would have to break ranks to back Sanders, in order to get him the nomination.

[The Romulan Republic]

Ah, so you want a viciously divisive contested convention, a weak nominee, and Trump to get an additional several months' head start on the general election campaign, just so you can gloat at Sanders and his supporters?

Please, for once, spare me your intolerable self-righteousness. I literally, honestly expect both of them to be dead or medically unfit to run.

That's what you're banking on? "The Primary doesn't matter because everyone will be dead of coronavirus"?

Well, that's one outlook. But until the apocalypse happens, I'm going to presume that the winners of the primaries will, in fact, be the nominees.

And, regardless, I expect that Sanders will not win the Presidency no matter what. So watching him be the rank hypocrite I know he is will at least make me laugh.

Funny how all the polling says that the leading candidate is Sanders in the primary, and that he has a fair shot at winning the general election. But I guess its not just Trumpers who have "alternative facts".

Seriously, dude. Just fucking stop with it already. Nobody gives a shit about your prose. We’re assholes bullshitting on a web forum. I know you’re just going to launch into a five paragraph screed about how you’re being persecuted or whatever, but just maybe for once try... not.

That's some nice poisoning the well you've got there.

I won't bother asking why you think your posts and opinions are any more deserving of taking up space on this board than mine. You're just a hypocritical tool who's so blinded by your pathological hate of Bernie Sanders and anyone who supports him that you can't see past your own nose. You'd just be sad, if not for the reminder that there are enough people like you in the party leadership to be dangerous.

[The Romulan Republic]

Assuming Bloomberg turns out to be a paper tiger, Biden is in good shape in southern states for Super Tuesday, including Texas. Sanders' shot at the nomination is much more in doubt now. When I said that SC wasn't going to matter, I probably wasn't expecting Biden to win it by thirty fucking points. While I still don't expect Biden to come into Milwaukee with the majority of delegates, or even a plurality ... as long as Sanders doesn't come in with a majority, and Bloomberg proves that one can't simply buy the nomination, Biden is (at the moment) in good shape to be the Democratic nominee on the second ballot.

An explanation of this logic is in order. In order to win the nomination on the first ballot, a candidate has to receive 1991 of the delegates. If the first ballot doesn't yield a majority, then the superdelegates get to vote on the second ballot; but to become the nominee, a prospective candidate must win a majority of all the delegates at the convention on the second ballot, or 2376.

As of this writing the 538 forecast has now decided that "CONVENTION CHAOS" now has a 60% chance of winning the nomination ... Biden curbstomping Sanders in South Carolina has actually decreased his own odds of scoring a majority of delegates at the convention. The model calls for Sanders to arrive at the convention with an average of 1672 delegates, and Biden to arrive with an average of 1287 delegates. Bloomberg comes in with 590 delegates, Warren comes in with 203, and the rest come in with 225 delegates. Add all these up, and one gets 3977, which is close enough to the 3979 delegates going to Milwaukee, that I'll just use the numbers as-is ...

So, the first ballot is held, Sanders gets the plurality; but obviously 1672 delegates is fewer than 1991. Contested convention, here we go!

Sanders' supporters may demand that the Democratic Convention change the rules again, so the candidate with the most delegates on the first ballot wins the nomination ... but the DNC will have none of it ... Bernie Sanders already had the rules changed once in his favor with this whole two-tiered balloting process. Once all the shouting dies down, the floor of the convention moves onto the second ballot, and now, everything changes.

All delegates, in theory, are released from their candidates, and the 771 or so superdelegates come into play. We'll be generous and assume Warren's delegates all back Sanders; getting him up to 1875 delegates. The others all go to Biden. getting him up to 2102. He only needs to convince 274 of the superdelegates to back him ... the prohibitive majority of which would rather shake hands with their antimatter counterpart than hand the nomination to Bernie Sanders. To be generous to Sanders, we'll say only 75% of the superdelegates back Biden. That means Biden gets 578 out of the 274 he needs, and gets the Democratic nomination with 2680 delegates.

As an aside: In this scenario, a big defection of superdelegates for Sanders seems incredibly unlikely, given their stated antipathy towards Sanders, and the fact that the biggest member of the Democratic donor class (Bloomberg) will be in the room with them. Especially since, in this scenario, a full two-thirds of them would have to break ranks to back Sanders, in order to get him the nomination.

This is assuming a lot.

It assumes Sanders doesn't exceed his average. It assumes that no one outside Warren's camp will back Sanders (and that all Warren delegates will back him- both are unlikely, to my mind). It also assumes that 75% of the superdelegates are willing to reject the candidate with the most votes and risk a repeat of the '68 convention (I could see Pelosi or Obama interceding here, since both have been pushing a party unity narrative).

Is it possible that it'll go down like you say? Yeah. Is that even the most likely outcome, give or take a few delegates? Probably. But you better pray it doesn't happen, because if it does, we can pretty much call it for Trump, and get used to Heiling the Fuhrer.

[Darth Yan]

1.) Warren's the only other person besides Bernie doing well in California. Same with Colorado. By both 538 and 270 Warren and the others have ZERO chance of adding more delegates after Super tuesday. So they'll drop. If Bloomberg doesn't it becomes hairier.

2.) Fire Nexus is being an idiot. Yes Sander's supporters can be obnoxious but guess what? Biden's a pretty bad candidate as well.

3.) If Biden IS chosen the democrats will be digging their own graves. Biden's a walking gaffe machine who will probably spike the well and hand trump victory.

[The Romulan Republic]

1.) Warren's the only other person besides Bernie doing well in California. Same with Colorado. By both 538 and 270 Warren and the others have ZERO chance of adding more delegates after Super tuesday. So they'll drop. If Bloomberg doesn't it becomes hairier.

2.) Fire Nexus is being an idiot. Yes Sander's supporters can be obnoxious but guess what? Biden's a pretty bad candidate as well.

3.) If Biden IS chosen the democrats will be digging their own graves. Biden's a walking gaffe machine who will probably spike the well and hand trump victory.

I can imagine scenarios where Biden wins.

I have a very hard time imagining a scenario where Biden wins after coming to the convention with fewer delegates than Sanders, and being given the nomination by super delegates.

I really wish Warren would drop now. She has to know she can't win. Her staying in is literally doing nothing except a) damaging Sanders' chances of sweeping California and winning Massachusetts, and b) increasing the likelihood of a contested convention.

I had thought better of her, even after the fight between her and Sanders. But its looking more and more like she's just another Centrist tool who's priority is stopping Sanders at all costs, even at the cost of party unity and defeating Trump. And its all the more appalling from her because her policies on a lot of things aren't that different than his, and she clearly doesn't (or didn't) think that a progressive is unelectable. So it doesn't even come off as her thinking Sanders can't win or thinking he'd be bad for the country, so much as purely driven by ambition or spite. Warren could potentially end this right now, and yet she's choosing not to. Why? So she can say "I won Massachusetts!" Or so she can sell her support at the convention to the highest bidder?

Its hard to believe Bernie considered her for VP AND a cabinet post.

[Darth Yan]

One bit of good news. In a few places they don’t have updated polling. A lot has changed and if you assume the national average holds AND Bloomberg drops out he may be able to scrape a majority

[Darth Yan]

If Bloomy drops out before mid April Sanders may JUST squeak by. Super Tuesday May also boost his polling in other states, while anything that comes out about Bloomberg (which is all to possible given the circumstances) could further erode him.

If economic recession occurs trump may loose even WITH a brokered convention

[The Romulan Republic]

One bit of good news. In a few places they don’t have updated polling. A lot has changed and if you assume the national average holds AND Bloomberg drops out he may be able to scrape a majority

My gut is that Bloomberg is in it to the end specifically to try to fuck Sanders (and he has basically a bottomless well of campaign funds to do it), but its also possible that if he underperforms on Super Tuesday, on top of his recent slide, he'll be so weak that he won't actually take many, or any, delegates post-Super Tuesday. Especially as post-Super Tuesday, everyone not Bernie will likely start to finally coalesce around Biden.

I'm fine with a one on one race between Biden and Bernie. I think we can win it, and if we can't, at least we might get a clear winner before the convention.

My biggest hope for Super Tuesday (beyond the givens that Sanders wins California and Vermont, probably by wide margins) is that Sanders takes Texas (the second biggest prize), and on a more petty but still satisfying note, that he takes Massachussetts. I'm thoroughly sick of Elizabeth Warren's turn coat behaviour toward progressivism at this point, she's pushing us toward a contested convention she can't win, presumably to spike Sanders, and I want her to be forced out. Taking her home state (and thus presumably her winning nothing on Super Tuesday) would both do that, and be a nice bit of payback.

On a personal level, I'd also very much like to see him net Colorado and Democrats Abroad, since I have a personal interest in both contests (I voted in Colorado, but am still a member of DA).

[Darth Yan]

Warren may just be really desperate. In any case we’ll see. If Sanders scores a massive blowout I think that they’ll focus around Biden. And if Bloomberg dies dropout (if the performance is low enough) by April Sanders may just win. If Sanders manages to just lose the other southern states (ie Biden wins but not by a big margin) AND is clearly the front runner I think people will fall behind HIM instead.

Either way Tuesday will be crucial. I’m on duty that day here in Cali

[The Romulan Republic]

Warren may just be really desperate. In any case we’ll see. If Sanders scores a massive blowout I think that they’ll focus around Biden. And if Bloomberg dies dropout (if the performance is low enough) by April Sanders may just win. If Sanders manages to just lose the other southern states (ie Biden wins but not by a big margin) AND is clearly the front runner I think people will fall behind HIM instead.

Either way Tuesday will be crucial. I’m on duty that day here in Cali

Good luck!

I, thankfully, sent my mail ballot to Colorado a good week ago (voted Sanders, naturally), but the local Democrats Abroad wants me to volunteer. I'm working that day, but I told them I'd try to help out for a while in the morning before my shift.

[The Romulan Republic]

FiveThirtyEight's breakdown of the New England contests, as of Friday:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/su ... nd-states/

Sanders is solidly ahead in Maine (both districts, the race is for second place), Massachusetts (ahead in all districts, Warren second, take that Senator Snake Emoji), and of course Vermont (where Sanders is expected to win an outright majority projected at 57%, and likely every delegate).

[The Romulan Republic]

Belated edit: They've currently got the following favored to win on Super Tuesday overall:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... -forecast/

Sanders: California, Massachusetts (this is how the Warren campaign ends, not with a bang but with a whimper), Colorado, Utah, Maine, Vermont, American Samoa.

Biden: Texas (but its fairly close, 1 in 2 vs 2 in 5 for Sanders, though that may shift after tonight), North Carolina, Virginia, Tennessee, Alabama, Oklahoma, Arkansas.

Klobuchar: Minnesota.

That gives Biden and Sanders each seven wins. Biden sweeps the South, Sanders nearly sweeps everywhere else (the sole exception being Minnesota).

Klobuchar gets the consolation prize of winning her home state, and pushing us a little closer to a contested convention in the process.

Nobody else wins jack (suck it, Bloomberg).

Edit: Once Democrats Abroad comes in, I expect it'll be another Sanders win, but it votes over the course of a week, starting Super Tuesday.

I'd also add that when people talk about the "diversity" or lack thereof of the Sanders campaign, it should be noted that he is the only candidate winning nationwide, while Biden is showing largely regional appeal. The South may have been Clinton's firewall in the primary, but she also won big states outside it. It remains to be seen if Biden can do likewise.

[The Romulan Republic]

Current delegate count:

https://nbcnews.com/politics/2020-prima ... gate-count

Democrats:

Sanders: 57.
Biden: 51.
Buttigieg: 26.
Warren: 8.
Klobuchar: 7.

Republicans:

Fuhrer Donald the First: 86.
Weld: 1.

That one must just eat at Dickless's ego.

[Knife]

A couple of notes...

1) Biden's camp is touting their dominance of the Black Vote. While he ran the tables at SC, all it shows is he has the SC Black vote and it remains to be seen if that applies in other states. The guy literally has been hanging out in SC for years, but not in NC or Virginia, or Georgia, or Alabama. That being said, sure, its reasonable to assume Biden will get the plurality of Black votes but Tuesday will be the test of this model. If the South goes as hard core Biden as SC, Sanders has a problem. Not a huge one, not that he's automatically out, but a problem that Biden will be hounding his ass with delegates.

2) Though, it is possible for Sanders to run the tables in California which makes a lot of this other stuff moot. Warren is running second in Cali right now but it's unknown if she'll even get the 15%, let alone the rest of the crowd. If Warren cracks 15% as second place but no one else does, it still gives Bernie 200-300 delegates right there. If Warren misses the 15%, Sanders gets OVER 300 of the 400 delegates. In California alone. That's going to be a hard thing for Biden to get over. Biden would have to run the tables in all of the Southern States like he did in SC to compete with that.

3) As much as I supported Warren, she's done. I don't expect her to drop until Tuesday night or Wednesday, but she's done. She tacked hard center and it ruined everything special about her. Reversing herself on Medicare for all as well as taking PAC money at the end. She's done. Even if she cracks 15% in California, all that does is give her some bargaining power if she wants a Cabinet Secretary job.

I'm rather sad about that since I"ve wanted her to run for years, like her policies and her fighting spirit. I don't know where it went the last 6 months. Perhaps she got to wrapped up in the process, or perhaps tempted too much by the money and power. It's just sad.

[GrandMasterTerwynn]

If Bloomy drops out before mid April Sanders may JUST squeak by. Super Tuesday May also boost his polling in other states, while anything that comes out about Bloomberg (which is all to possible given the circumstances) could further erode him.

If economic recession occurs trump may loose even WITH a brokered convention

The only reason Bloomberg drops out is if he realizes that founding a Super-PAC to help the former Senator of the DuPont Corporation would be a better use of his gigadollars. The best hope for Sanders is a three-way race between him, the Moderate Democrat Who Once Launched a Primary Challenge Against Woodrow Wilson, and the Moderate Democrat Who Was a Republican Before it Became Uncool. That way, at least, Bloomberg has to run ads against Biden to legitimize his own candidacy; instead of the Never Sanders, Red Scare 24/7 blitz he would be running if he were simply shoveling money into a Biden-backing Super-PAC. With Bloomberg vampiring votes away from Biden; Sanders becomes the Democratic nominee by default.

If you add up all the Democrats who voted in the contests so far, you get that around 64% of Democrats, to this point of the contest, want the lukewarm safety of a flaccid, center-right, moderate. if you dig up how these first four states voted in 2016 ... you get that around 64% of Democrats, to that point of the contest, wanted the lukewarm safety of a flaccid, center-right, moderate.

Granted, the above analysis slightly simplifies things, mainly by assuming that people who actually voted for Warren are lock-step progressives (I'd daresay many of them backed Clinton in 2016; and it may be these folks who actually came out and voted for her.) And, of course, in this particular horse race, only delegates count; and the moderates can't combine theirs until the second ballot at Milwaukee.

[Darth Yan]

If Bernie is clearly the popular option I think Biden at least might endorse him.