Axis Kast wrote:There was always resentment to the Shah, but that does not mean that from his first moment in power he was doomed to fail.
Even as late as January 1978, the Shah appeared viable. Remember that this man had successfully wrangled concessions from neighboring Iraq and was making himself a strong force in the Persian Gulf. He appealed strongly to Iranian nationalists as well as anti-Communists. And especially with the Soviet Union looming so large, Communism had its detractors (the Tudeh Party aside). The secular régime was never "destined" to fall.
Yes from the outside the government seemed very strong, hell even from some of the inside (in case anyone is interested which im sure your not, my cousin was the head of the iranian national bank during the tail end of the shah's reign, had to escape through the mountains cuz islamic fundies dont like bankers, but point is he never saw the imminent collapse either), but from the re-tellings I have heard, the opposition was rather constant, though silent for most of his reign and basically had he not been deposed the monarchy would have ended with him.
Festina Lente
My shoes are too tight and I've forgotten how to dance
Yes from the outside the government seemed very strong, hell even from some of the inside (in case anyone is interested which im sure your not, my cousin was the head of the iranian national bank during the tail end of the shah's reign, had to escape through the mountains cuz islamic fundies dont like bankers, but point is he never saw the imminent collapse either), but from the re-tellings I have heard, the opposition was rather constant, though silent for most of his reign and basically had he not been deposed the monarchy would have ended with him.
If the leading financiers had no indication of trouble and the Shah had so powerful a grip on the military as he did and the sworn support of nationalists, I can't see "imminent failure" written all over his rule.
the people, no government no matter how strong can survive without the support of the masses, the masses win becuase in the end the masses control the military in many cases, as they did in iraq, the military was fiercely loyal, not to the shah but to their families.
Festina Lente
My shoes are too tight and I've forgotten how to dance
"preemptive killing of cops might not be such a bad idea from a personal saftey[sic] standpoint..." --Keevan Colton
"There's a word for bias you can't see: Yours." -- William Saletan
