Ukraine reacts to fears of Russian invasion as troops build up at the border

[ray245]

Far worse could be said of lots of regimes whose adherents found themselves in court for various war crimes. "I was only following orders" didn't really fly then either.

There's following orders and committing a war crime. Following orders to march into Ukraine isn't the same as deliberately shelling civilians. Marching into Ukraine because you are forced to follow orders isn't going to make you a war criminal, even if the war is not justified.

[Lord Revan]

We must remember that your average Russian is so far removed those calling the shots that they essentially have no say on the matter, also it's easy to say "you should disobey" when you're not the one staring a barrel of a gun for disobeying.

I've got questions about how much the average Russian soldier knows about the war.

I'd guess "next to nothing", as even where democracies are involved the rank and file soldiers tend to be on a "need to know" basis (for practical reasons less they know less likely they're to leak something by accident) and the Russian Federation isn't a democracy (and in case anyone wonders while I keep using the full title instead of the short form of "Russia", it's because I want to make it clear that my problem is with country or more exactly the government of Russia not the people).

While I'm sure the rank and file Russian soldiers know there's a war and they might even think they know why it's fought, how much they actually know is probably very little as the reasons given to them are propaganda and only the higher members of the Hierarchy know the true motives for the war.

[GrosseAdmiralFox]

According to some reports, the Belarussian military is on the edge of mutiny, so they are likely even less motivated than the Russians.

Apparently there are already some Belarussians who have crossed over the border to fight on Ukraine's side. Don't know if they were regular military or just sympathetic to the cause. Clearly, though, Belarus is not enthused about joining this war.

So... two civil wars... fun.

As far as existential threats, if Putin uses nukes, Russia will cease to exist as a major global power. Retaliatory nuclear response will take care of that, and once the dust settles and Russia will have no capability left to deter China.

That does leave the question as to how much damage will be done to the rest of the world in such an event. Unless Putin is foolish enough to think the US would not respond in kind - perhaps not the wisest notion given that the US has in fact used nukes in the past.

I have no knowledge of what is targeted by which side right now, and given the state of Russia's military so far there is the question of whether or not Putin's nukes have been properly maintained and whether or not they would work, or how many might work and how many might not. The US supposedly has some interceptor capability - exact abilities classified, of course - but no missile defense system is 100% and even then there will be radioactive debris falling back to the ground in some places.

Though the bio warheads are likely not viable these days, it is far more likely that the nukes are, as it's really the only thing they had going for them. A lot of the new ICBMs are due to needing institutional knowledge retention, and not much else (something that even the T14 and T15 share).

During the Cold War in the area I currently live in there were at least three targets - O'Hare airport, the Chicago Stock Exchange, and the Gary Steel Works. I have to wonder about the Braidwood Nuclear Plant as well. That.... does not bode well for me. I'm downwind of three of those and close enough to the fourth that I'd probably not survive the initial blast/shockwave/collapsing buildings/firestorm so I suppose that might be considered a silver lining...? but for damn sure if the Russians think they're going down and nukes are flying the US will be a target. Along with various other people. Who knows how many functional nukes the Russians have at this point? Or where they're pointed?

I can, with some confidence, can tell you where those Russian nukes are headed: to everyone else. Remember, the plans that came out of Bioprepryat and the limited time we had in the Kremlin Archives paints a rather nasty picture of Russia/the USSR being, er, very Captain Ahab in the 'from hell's heart I stab at thee!' department.

I am pretty sure, though, that the US arsenal is in good shape. Aside from an outrageously high military budget, we've had less of our funds siphoned off for super-yachts and London real estate.

If the US sends the missiles over to Russia I am sadly confident that they will work. Russia will cease to exist as a nation.

Not sure if any other nuclear powers would get involved or not. They may decide they have to, just in case they're targets as well. I'm not at all confident such an escalation would remain confined to just Russia and Ukraine, or just Russia and Europe, or just Russia and NATO....

I live next to a railyard, down the hill from an international airport, across town from an oil refinery and Malestrom AFB.

Do the math.

Also, once the nukes fly the coup, it is far likely that all of them do, just so no one takes advantage in the aftermath.

If they lose that deterrent, Siberia becomes Chinese. They have the resources to exploit it, the population to settle it and if anyone thinks they would not take advantage of a golden opportunity like that, such a person has no place discussing these issues in the first place.

In such a world Siberia might be better off under China than as a part of whatever is left of shattered Russia. Which is not to say that would be a wonderful fate, it might even be quite awful for a lot of people, but if Russia starts a nuclear war whatever is left will not be a good place to live.

Absolutely China would take advantage of the opportunity for land and resources. As will anyone else who feels they can take advantage of that opportunity - assuming there's something worth having other than glassed craters and radioactive dust.

If the penalty for starting a nuclear war is seen to be the complete obliteration of the aggressor perhaps that would deter anyone else from doing that shit for a century or two. Which presumes that there would be enough civilization left to matter. We don't really know what the outcome of that would be. Personally, I hope we never do.

You have far too much faith in humanity. Every time a new weapon gets created, it gets used. Nukes won't be much different in that regard other than the shear collateral involved. People forget that trade via Globalism ensured that we didn't have world wars every two decades, not nuclear weapons.

Also, it is far more likely that certain plans that the Soviets implemented will also go into effect... which means anyone not Russian isn't going to be doing more than subsistence farming.

[Col. Crackpot]

Trade was critical. But it was also the carrot to MAD’s stick.

[Sidewinder]

National Public Radio (NPR)- which the US government funds, and thus, controls- has accused China of helping Russia hide billions in dollars, with which the Russian military may fund operations in Ukraine. I suspect Biden administration officials seek an excuse to sanction China and instigate regime change there- a dangerous and STUPID prospect, as China is still neutral in the war between Russia and Ukraine. As Putin is not a Chinese puppet, nor Russia a Chinese vassal, the only way China could stop the invasion was to threaten to invade Russia- and why should Chinese soldiers fight and die for America's convenience?

Russia stashed away billions before invading Ukraine. China may have helped hide it
March 25, 2022- 4:43 PM ET
Heard on All Things Considered

The Kremlin stashed away billions before invading Ukraine. China helped them hide it. NPR's Ari Shapiro speaks with economist Benn Steil about his investigation into Russian assets.

ARI SHAPIRO, HOST:

Days after Russia invaded Ukraine, the U.S. and its allies punched back.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN: Together, along with our allies, we are right now enforcing powerful economic sanctions.

SHAPIRO: As President Biden explained in the State of the Union address earlier this month, the West was targeting Russia's largest banks and its central bank.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

BIDEN: Making Putin's $630 billion war fund worthless.

SHAPIRO: Well, worthless may be an overstatement because a new investigation finds that Russia may have stashed tens of billions of dollars of that war fund in offshore accounts and that China may be helping. Benn Steil is director of international economics at the Council on Foreign Relations, and he wrote about his research in Foreign Affairs. Welcome.

BENN STEIL: Thank you for having me, Ari.

SHAPIRO: I think people are generally familiar with how offshore accounts work, but tell us about how Russia may be using them in this case.

STEIL: Yeah. So the reason we got interested in this is that back in 2018, there had been media headlines saying that Russia had dumped nearly all of its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds. And my co-author and I, Benjamin Della Rocca, we were very skeptical about this because countries need U.S. dollars to pay their international debts.

SHAPIRO: So you thought maybe they weren't dumped, just hidden.

STEIL: Exactly. So we began digging through various databases, starting with the Russian central bank, and found that the Russian central bank had not, in fact, sold all these securities. So we went looking for where they could possibly be housed at the time, and we found that it was likely that about half the total or about $20 billion was in the Cayman Islands and about $25 billion was in Belgium.

SHAPIRO: If the money was in Belgium, what role did China likely play here?

STEIL: Right. Well, at the same time that we saw this spike in Treasury holdings in Belgium, we also saw anomalous financial data from Russia's central bank. We saw an enormous increase in currency and deposits held at foreign central banks. So what we believe happened based on the evidence was that Russia deposited tens of billions of dollars of foreign currency with the Chinese central bank. The Chinese central bank used this money to buy U.S. dollars, and then they used those U.S. dollars to buy U.S. Treasury bonds, which are being housed, we believe, in Belgium at a custodial bank called Euroclear. So if we're right, that would indicate that Russia has upwards of $80 billion of U.S. Treasury securities that it can turn into ready money, U.S. dollars, at a moment's notice.

SHAPIRO: Are there steps allies could take to close these loopholes?

STEIL: Well, in the short term, it would probably be difficult. And the reason I say that is this - almost certainly whatever entity Russia used to buy these Treasury securities, they were being intermediated by yet more entities, probably, we believe, Chinese state-owned banks. So what we believe is that the U.S. Treasury, in conjunction with U.S. allies, is probably going to have to take further action to assist institutions like Euroclear in understanding what its customers are doing to facilitate transactions for others.

SHAPIRO: Sounds like if China wanted to cut off Russia, it has a lot of power here.

STEIL: Oh, without question. If China wanted to cut off these evasive flows, it could. So it's very important that the Biden administration continue to keep up the pressure on China to get Vladimir Putin to reverse his brutal aggression in Ukraine.

SHAPIRO: Benn Steil is director of international economics at the Council on Foreign Relations. Thanks a lot.

STEIL: Thank you for having me, Ari.

Question: WHAT EVIDENCE are they citing? Government documents? Bank statements? Emails, phone calls recorded via wiretap, and other communications between government officials as well as between them and bankers?

Why would Russia hide the money in offshore accounts, which foreign governments may freeze or seize at will?

And why are Biden administration officials doing to China what George W. Bush did to Iraq after the 9/11 attacks, i.e., accuse a third (and NEUTRAL) party of facilitating another's actions against American interests? China is NOT Iraq; fighting it will be far more difficult than invading and then occupying Iraq, especially when the US economy and US citizens will benefit far more by continuing to trade with China.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

As part of the peace negotiations, Zelensky offered to put the idea of joining NATO to a referendum in Ukraine, to happen after the Russians withdraw their troops, which to me looks like a smart move on his part.

[GrosseAdmiralFox]

Trade was critical. But it was also the carrot to MAD’s stick.

MAD is built upon the idea that humans in leadership positions are -at worst- semi-rational beings. Problem is, that isn't entirely the case.

In addition, MAD is built on very shaky foundations, meaning that it has a timetable before someone calls it out.

[GrosseAdmiralFox]

National Public Radio (NPR)- which the US government funds, and thus, controls- has accused China of helping Russia hide billions in dollars, with which the Russian military may fund operations in Ukraine. I suspect Biden administration officials seek an excuse to sanction China and instigate regime change there- a dangerous and STUPID prospect, as China is still neutral in the war between Russia and Ukraine. As Putin is not a Chinese puppet, nor Russia a Chinese vassal, the only way China could stop the invasion was to threaten to invade Russia- and why should Chinese soldiers fight and die for America's convenience?

Russia stashed away billions before invading Ukraine. China may have helped hide it
March 25, 2022- 4:43 PM ET
Heard on All Things Considered

The Kremlin stashed away billions before invading Ukraine. China helped them hide it. NPR's Ari Shapiro speaks with economist Benn Steil about his investigation into Russian assets.

ARI SHAPIRO, HOST:

Days after Russia invaded Ukraine, the U.S. and its allies punched back.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN: Together, along with our allies, we are right now enforcing powerful economic sanctions.

SHAPIRO: As President Biden explained in the State of the Union address earlier this month, the West was targeting Russia's largest banks and its central bank.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

BIDEN: Making Putin's $630 billion war fund worthless.

SHAPIRO: Well, worthless may be an overstatement because a new investigation finds that Russia may have stashed tens of billions of dollars of that war fund in offshore accounts and that China may be helping. Benn Steil is director of international economics at the Council on Foreign Relations, and he wrote about his research in Foreign Affairs. Welcome.

BENN STEIL: Thank you for having me, Ari.

SHAPIRO: I think people are generally familiar with how offshore accounts work, but tell us about how Russia may be using them in this case.

STEIL: Yeah. So the reason we got interested in this is that back in 2018, there had been media headlines saying that Russia had dumped nearly all of its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds. And my co-author and I, Benjamin Della Rocca, we were very skeptical about this because countries need U.S. dollars to pay their international debts.

SHAPIRO: So you thought maybe they weren't dumped, just hidden.

STEIL: Exactly. So we began digging through various databases, starting with the Russian central bank, and found that the Russian central bank had not, in fact, sold all these securities. So we went looking for where they could possibly be housed at the time, and we found that it was likely that about half the total or about $20 billion was in the Cayman Islands and about $25 billion was in Belgium.

SHAPIRO: If the money was in Belgium, what role did China likely play here?

STEIL: Right. Well, at the same time that we saw this spike in Treasury holdings in Belgium, we also saw anomalous financial data from Russia's central bank. We saw an enormous increase in currency and deposits held at foreign central banks. So what we believe happened based on the evidence was that Russia deposited tens of billions of dollars of foreign currency with the Chinese central bank. The Chinese central bank used this money to buy U.S. dollars, and then they used those U.S. dollars to buy U.S. Treasury bonds, which are being housed, we believe, in Belgium at a custodial bank called Euroclear. So if we're right, that would indicate that Russia has upwards of $80 billion of U.S. Treasury securities that it can turn into ready money, U.S. dollars, at a moment's notice.

SHAPIRO: Are there steps allies could take to close these loopholes?

STEIL: Well, in the short term, it would probably be difficult. And the reason I say that is this - almost certainly whatever entity Russia used to buy these Treasury securities, they were being intermediated by yet more entities, probably, we believe, Chinese state-owned banks. So what we believe is that the U.S. Treasury, in conjunction with U.S. allies, is probably going to have to take further action to assist institutions like Euroclear in understanding what its customers are doing to facilitate transactions for others.

SHAPIRO: Sounds like if China wanted to cut off Russia, it has a lot of power here.

STEIL: Oh, without question. If China wanted to cut off these evasive flows, it could. So it's very important that the Biden administration continue to keep up the pressure on China to get Vladimir Putin to reverse his brutal aggression in Ukraine.

SHAPIRO: Benn Steil is director of international economics at the Council on Foreign Relations. Thanks a lot.

STEIL: Thank you for having me, Ari.

Question: WHAT EVIDENCE are they citing? Government documents? Bank statements? Emails, phone calls recorded via wiretap, and other communications between government officials as well as between them and bankers?

Why would Russia hide the money in offshore accounts, which foreign governments may freeze or seize at will?

And why are Biden administration officials doing to China what George W. Bush did to Iraq after the 9/11 attacks, i.e., accuse a third (and NEUTRAL) party of facilitating another's actions against American interests? China is NOT Iraq; fighting it will be far more difficult than invading and then occupying Iraq, especially when the US economy and US citizens will benefit far more by continuing to trade with China.

Here's the thing, you're working in the realm of intelligence operations here, and ousting any source will get them killed.

Look at Steele's Russian sources, they're either being hunted or dead.

[Col. Crackpot]

Trade was critical. But it was also the carrot to MAD’s stick.

MAD is built upon the idea that humans in leadership positions are -at worst- semi-rational beings. Problem is, that isn't entirely the case.

In addition, MAD is built on very shaky foundations, meaning that it has a timetable before someone calls it out.

Disagree with Reagan, Gorbachev, Brezhnev, Kennedy or Khrushchev all you want on politics, but they all were as you say rational beings. You could say Andropov and Nixon were both a little squirrelly at the end but they were rational. Or at least had a rational apparatus around them.

[Gandalf]

There's following orders and committing a war crime.

Yes, and often they overlap.

One good thing: watching the far right tear itself to pieces over whether it supports Putin has been some of the most satisfying entertainment I've had recently. Now I basically live on a certain website who's members are called "freepers" (can't link to them, the nutjobs like to counter-invade websites that link to them) just refreshing, watching them eat each other.

Yeah, that's certainly one for comedy, though I've been browsing HPCA. Their weird division seems to be those stuck in the old world mindset, where Moscow is the centre of evil, and the younger ones for whom Putin is everything they want out of Republicans but can't get. They're unified on it being Biden's fault though.

[Sidewinder]

National Public Radio (NPR)- which the US government funds, and thus, controls- has accused China of helping Russia hide billions in dollars, with which the Russian military may fund operations in Ukraine. I suspect Biden administration officials seek an excuse to sanction China and instigate regime change there- a dangerous and STUPID prospect, as China is still neutral in the war between Russia and Ukraine. As Putin is not a Chinese puppet, nor Russia a Chinese vassal, the only way China could stop the invasion was to threaten to invade Russia- and why should Chinese soldiers fight and die for America's convenience?

Russia stashed away billions before invading Ukraine. China may have helped hide it
March 25, 2022- 4:43 PM ET
Heard on All Things Considered

The Kremlin stashed away billions before invading Ukraine. China helped them hide it. NPR's Ari Shapiro speaks with economist Benn Steil about his investigation into Russian assets.

Question: WHAT EVIDENCE are they citing? Government documents? Bank statements? Emails, phone calls recorded via wiretap, and other communications between government officials as well as between them and bankers?

Here's the thing, you're working in the realm of intelligence operations here, and ousting any source will get them killed.

Look at Steele's Russian sources, they're either being hunted or dead.

I'm not asking for sources, I'm asking WHAT EVIDENCE exists. No description is even given, leading me to suspect the NPR is working off hearsay. George W. Bush was at least able to present forged or falsified documents supporting his allegations that Iraq had a nuclear weapons program.

[GrosseAdmiralFox]

National Public Radio (NPR)- which the US government funds, and thus, controls- has accused China of helping Russia hide billions in dollars, with which the Russian military may fund operations in Ukraine. I suspect Biden administration officials seek an excuse to sanction China and instigate regime change there- a dangerous and STUPID prospect, as China is still neutral in the war between Russia and Ukraine. As Putin is not a Chinese puppet, nor Russia a Chinese vassal, the only way China could stop the invasion was to threaten to invade Russia- and why should Chinese soldiers fight and die for America's convenience?

Question: WHAT EVIDENCE are they citing? Government documents? Bank statements? Emails, phone calls recorded via wiretap, and other communications between government officials as well as between them and bankers?

Here's the thing, you're working in the realm of intelligence operations here, and ousting any source will get them killed.

Look at Steele's Russian sources, they're either being hunted or dead.

I'm not asking for sources, I'm asking WHAT EVIDENCE exists. No description is even given, leading me to suspect the NPR is working off hearsay. George W. Bush was at least able to present forged or falsified documents supporting his allegations that Iraq had a nuclear weapons program.

Here's the thing, the world of intelligence operations isn't as clear-cut as you would assume. Even just giving the evidence is now a method to seal leaks (i.e. it has come to the point that giving evidence literally narrows down how it is gotten by a significant margin). By the time you classify anything related to the operations, you would be ending up having paper drowned in black ink.

[Broomstick]

You have far too much faith in humanity.

To quote a former US Secretary of State, I'm an optimist who worries a lot.

Every time a new weapon gets created, it gets used. Nukes won't be much different in that regard other than the shear collateral involved.

Yes, and nukes have in fact been used in war. They were scary effective in many ways, which makes them very appealing to certain people with certain goals in mind.

People forget that trade via Globalism ensured that we didn't have world wars every two decades, not nuclear weapons.

Eh.... I agree with the other poster who said global trade was a carrot to the stick of MAD. I think trade reduces the risk of war but does not eliminate it.

[Broomstick]

National Public Radio (NPR)- which the US government funds, and thus, controls

Although established by an act of Congress and initially heavily funded by the Federal government, starting with Reagan in the 1980's the share of its budget coming from government has steadily fallen. The Republicans have, for decades, wanted to completely de-fund NPR and/or abolish it. By 2010 only about 10% of NPR's budget was coming from the Federal government. I question how much the Feds actually do control it, given how NPR stations have largely been on the opposite of issues than the Federal government, especially when the Republicans are in power (hence their desire to de-fund and/or abolish it). NPR is NOT the American version of the BBC.

Which does not rule out a particular NPR station or program being on the side of a current administration, I'm just saying the assumption of such a bias is not supported by the reality of who funds and controls NPR.

...has accused China of helping Russia hide billions in dollars, with which the Russian military may fund operations in Ukraine. I suspect Biden administration officials seek an excuse to sanction China and instigate regime change there- a dangerous and STUPID prospect, as China is still neutral in the war between Russia and Ukraine.

My impression is that the main concern of the US government is that China NOT take Russia's side in the conflict and REMAIN neutral. It's not that the US wants to sanction China (indeed, given the amount of trade between China and the US the would inflict economic damage on both) but it using the threat of sanctions to influence China so they won't supply the Russia war machine the way the US/NATO are supplying Ukraine.

As Putin is not a Chinese puppet, nor Russia a Chinese vassal, the only way China could stop the invasion was to threaten to invade Russia- and why should Chinese soldiers fight and die for America's convenience?

You are correct about China not wanting to get involved in fighting, but if China can't stop Russia they certainly can help prolong the conflict by funding and supplying the Russian war with money and weapons even if not manpower (as the US/NATO are assisting Ukraine) The US is (from what I can tell - I'm certainly not privy to all possible facts and information around this) trying to discourage China from assisting Russia. This is probably being done with a mixture of appeal to common interests (neither US or China want to see a new Russian Empire annexing pieces of neighboring nations, China perhaps more so being one of those neighbors, and war being bad for every form of trade other than weaponry) and the threat of economic consequences i.e. sanctions and taking US business elsewhere. Which would be as difficult for the US suddenly as it is for Germany to completely stop buying gas and oil from Russia on a moment's notice.

Question: WHAT EVIDENCE are they citing? Government documents? Bank statements? Emails, phone calls recorded via wiretap, and other communications between government officials as well as between them and bankers?

I agree that that is a weakness of this report, but not uncommon for topics of All Things Considered which often takes the form of an Op-Ed article/podcast rather than a deeply researched documentary.

Why would Russia hide the money in offshore accounts, which foreign governments may freeze or seize at will?

To avoid sanctions and avoid putting all their eggs in one basket. Russia is familiar with the way the West likes to use sanctions and probably anticipated some problem with using rubles in international trade. By holding reserves in other currencies or forms that could be easily converted to dollars it would (in theory) help them circumvent sanctions. Sure, there is always the risk of that foreign government freezing or confiscating the assets, but that's why those assets need to be in multiple locations and countries.

And why are Biden administration officials doing to China what George W. Bush did to Iraq after the 9/11 attacks, i.e., accuse a third (and NEUTRAL) party of facilitating another's actions against American interests? China is NOT Iraq; fighting it will be far more difficult than invading and then occupying Iraq, especially when the US economy and US citizens will benefit far more by continuing to trade with China.

There is no way Biden is contemplating invading China right now. Right now, the biggest concern the US has with China is a more open and thorough alliance of China and Russia which could definitely fuck with the US/NATO. Sure, there are times China does things that conflict with what the US wants, that's nothing new and no secret. And vice versa. The US and China, despite all the trade, are not friends or allies. The US wants China to be neutral in this matter.

Really, I think your assumption that this piece is a mouthpiece of the current administration is flawed. While the guest speaker, Benn Steil, is a professional in the field he does not officially speak for the US, he is not a part of the US government (although he may from time to time act as an advisor to government officials) and this strikes me as his opinion (which may be informed and based on information we don't have access to) and in no way official government policy. Is it the secret but actual policy? Maybe, but I don't know, that has even less support than his assertion Russia has billions in assets concealed overseas.

I get the impression (which may be wrong) that a lot of your position comes from the assumption that NPR is "controlled" by the US government. It isn't. If all government funding was withdrawn it would be inconvenient but it would not end NPR. It's like saying that artists in the US are controlled by the government because of the NEA - another agency the Republicans and the Far Right are always wanting to end because it doesn't control those artists.

But I'm perfectly willing to listen to counter-arguments to my position.

[GrosseAdmiralFox]

National Public Radio (NPR)- which the US government funds, and thus, controls

Although established by an act of Congress and initially heavily funded by the Federal government, starting with Reagan in the 1980's the share of its budget coming from government has steadily fallen. The Republicans have, for decades, wanted to completely de-fund NPR and/or abolish it. By 2010 only about 10% of NPR's budget was coming from the Federal government. I question how much the Feds actually do control it, given how NPR stations have largely been on the opposite of issues than the Federal government, especially when the Republicans are in power (hence their desire to de-fund and/or abolish it). NPR is NOT the American version of the BBC.

Which does not rule out a particular NPR station or program being on the side of a current administration, I'm just saying the assumption of such a bias is not supported by the reality of who funds and controls NPR.

...has accused China of helping Russia hide billions in dollars, with which the Russian military may fund operations in Ukraine. I suspect Biden administration officials seek an excuse to sanction China and instigate regime change there- a dangerous and STUPID prospect, as China is still neutral in the war between Russia and Ukraine.

My impression is that the main concern of the US government is that China NOT take Russia's side in the conflict and REMAIN neutral. It's not that the US wants to sanction China (indeed, given the amount of trade between China and the US the would inflict economic damage on both) but it using the threat of sanctions to influence China so they won't supply the Russia war machine the way the US/NATO are supplying Ukraine.

As Putin is not a Chinese puppet, nor Russia a Chinese vassal, the only way China could stop the invasion was to threaten to invade Russia- and why should Chinese soldiers fight and die for America's convenience?

You are correct about China not wanting to get involved in fighting, but if China can't stop Russia they certainly can help prolong the conflict by funding and supplying the Russian war with money and weapons even if not manpower (as the US/NATO are assisting Ukraine) The US is (from what I can tell - I'm certainly not privy to all possible facts and information around this) trying to discourage China from assisting Russia. This is probably being done with a mixture of appeal to common interests (neither US or China want to see a new Russian Empire annexing pieces of neighboring nations, China perhaps more so being one of those neighbors, and war being bad for every form of trade other than weaponry) and the threat of economic consequences i.e. sanctions and taking US business elsewhere. Which would be as difficult for the US suddenly as it is for Germany to completely stop buying gas and oil from Russia on a moment's notice.

Question: WHAT EVIDENCE are they citing? Government documents? Bank statements? Emails, phone calls recorded via wiretap, and other communications between government officials as well as between them and bankers?

I agree that that is a weakness of this report, but not uncommon for topics of All Things Considered which often takes the form of an Op-Ed article/podcast rather than a deeply researched documentary.

Why would Russia hide the money in offshore accounts, which foreign governments may freeze or seize at will?

To avoid sanctions and avoid putting all their eggs in one basket. Russia is familiar with the way the West likes to use sanctions and probably anticipated some problem with using rubles in international trade. By holding reserves in other currencies or forms that could be easily converted to dollars it would (in theory) help them circumvent sanctions. Sure, there is always the risk of that foreign government freezing or confiscating the assets, but that's why those assets need to be in multiple locations and countries.

And why are Biden administration officials doing to China what George W. Bush did to Iraq after the 9/11 attacks, i.e., accuse a third (and NEUTRAL) party of facilitating another's actions against American interests? China is NOT Iraq; fighting it will be far more difficult than invading and then occupying Iraq, especially when the US economy and US citizens will benefit far more by continuing to trade with China.

There is no way Biden is contemplating invading China right now. Right now, the biggest concern the US has with China is a more open and thorough alliance of China and Russia which could definitely fuck with the US/NATO. Sure, there are times China does things that conflict with what the US wants, that's nothing new and no secret. And vice versa. The US and China, despite all the trade, are not friends or allies. The US wants China to be neutral in this matter.

Really, I think your assumption that this piece is a mouthpiece of the current administration is flawed. While the guest speaker, Benn Steil, is a professional in the field he does not officially speak for the US, he is not a part of the US government (although he may from time to time act as an advisor to government officials) and this strikes me as his opinion (which may be informed and based on information we don't have access to) and in no way official government policy. Is it the secret but actual policy? Maybe, but I don't know, that has even less support than his assertion Russia has billions in assets concealed overseas.

I get the impression (which may be wrong) that a lot of your position comes from the assumption that NPR is "controlled" by the US government. It isn't. If all government funding was withdrawn it would be inconvenient but it would not end NPR. It's like saying that artists in the US are controlled by the government because of the NEA - another agency the Republicans and the Far Right are always wanting to end because it doesn't control those artists.

But I'm perfectly willing to listen to counter-arguments to my position.

Um, your quoting is borked, I didn't say those things, someone else did.

[Col. Crackpot]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1 ... T0d0a6jk9w

Speaking of nuclear war, Swedish TV reports that the Russian planes that violated its airspace earlier this month were carrying nuclear weapons.

[Broomstick]

Um, your quoting is borked, I didn't say those things, someone else did.

So it is - please accept my apologies, that's my bad. Unfortunately, too much time has elapsed and I can not go back and fix the quotes. It was Sidewinder who said most/all of that.

[Broomstick]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1 ... T0d0a6jk9w

Speaking of nuclear war, Swedish TV reports that the Russian planes that violated its airspace earlier this month were carrying nuclear weapons.

I am curious how they determined the weapons those planes carried were nuclear. Nuclear capable, sure, that's probably easy to determine but how would they know for sure one way or another if there were any nukes actually on board?

[Col. Crackpot]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1 ... T0d0a6jk9w

Speaking of nuclear war, Swedish TV reports that the Russian planes that violated its airspace earlier this month were carrying nuclear weapons.

I am curious how they determined the weapons those planes carried were nuclear. Nuclear capable, sure, that's probably easy to determine but how would they know for sure one way or another if there were any nukes actually on board?

https://www-tv4-se.translate.goog/artik ... r_pto=wapp

I ran the Swedish article through google translates. They cite unnamed sources and the Swedish military declined comment.

[Gandalf]

I suspect Biden administration officials seek an excuse to sanction China and instigate regime change there- a dangerous and STUPID prospect, as China is still neutral in the war between Russia and Ukraine.

That's an incredibly long bow to draw, and sort of leads into the idea what neutrality looks like in the face of these events.

Why would Russia hide the money in offshore accounts, which foreign governments may freeze or seize at will?

Lots of countries have money and assets stored overseas, both officially and presumably unofficially. It's how the US government has been able to freeze Iranian and Afghani assets previously, and Russia's now.

[Lord Revan]

Why would Russia hide the money in offshore accounts, which foreign governments may freeze or seize at will?

Lots of countries have money and assets stored overseas, both officially and presumably unofficially. It's how the US government has been able to freeze Iranian and Afghani assets previously, and Russia's now.

Also these days those funds and assets are less to hide them and more for investment, even the Swiss banks that were the go to for hiding funds off-shore for a long are that great for it anymore (largely as "a Swiss bank account" came a code word for illegal or otherwise questionable funds something the the Swiss banks were not exactly fond of).

and yes it's something pretty much every nation on the planet does to some degree or another, while there's a risk of those funds getting frozen under normal operation the benefits are worth that risk though.

[bilateralrope]

Ukraine invasion: White House intel shows Russia's Vladimir Putin was misled by advisers

Aamer Madhani and Nomaan Merchant
11:44, Mar 31 2022

US intelligence officials have determined that Russian President Vladimir Putin is being misinformed by advisers about his military’s poor performance in Ukraine, according to the White House.

The advisers are scared to tell him the truth, the intel says. The recently-declassified findings indicate that Putin is aware of the situation on information coming to him, and there now is persistent tension between him and senior Russian military officials.

The US believes Putin is being misled not only about his military's performance but also “how the Russian economy is being crippled by sanctions because, again, his senior advisers are too afraid to tell him the truth,” White House communications director Kate Bedingfield said.

US President Joe Biden previously said in an exchange with reporters that he could not comment on the intelligence.

The administration is hopeful that divulging the finding could help prod Putin to reconsider his options in Ukraine, according to a US official. The official was not authorised to comment and spoke on the condition of anonymity.

The war has ground to a bloody stalemate in much of the country, with heavy casualties and Russian troop morale sinking as Ukrainian forces and volunteers put up an unexpectedly stout defence.

But the publicity could also risk further isolating Putin, who officials have said seems at least in part driven by a desire to win back Russian prestige lost by the fall of the Soviet Union.

“What it does is underscore that this has been a strategic blunder for Russia,” Bedingfield said of the intelligence finding. “But I’m not going to characterise how... Vladimir Putin might be thinking about this.”

Meanwhile, Biden told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a 55-minute call that an additional US$500 million in direct aid for Ukraine was on its way. It’s the latest burst in American assistance as the Russian invasion grinds on.

Asked about the latest intelligence, Secretary of State Antony Blinken suggested that a dynamic within the Kremlin exists where advisers are unwilling to speak to Putin with candour.

“One of the Achilles’ heels of autocracies is that you don’t have people in those systems that speak truth to power or have the ability to speak truth to power, and I think that’s what we’re seeing in Russia,” Blinken told reporters.

The unidentified official did not detail underlying evidence for how US intelligence made its determination.

The intelligence community has concluded that Putin was unaware that his military had been using and losing conscripts in Ukraine. They also have determined he is not fully aware of the extent to which the Russian economy is being damaged by economic sanctions imposed by the US and allies.

The findings demonstrate a “clear breakdown in the flow of accurate information” to Putin, and show that Putin’s senior advisers are “afraid to tell him the truth,” the official said.

Biden notified Zelenskyy about the latest tranche of assistance during a call in which the leaders also reviewed security aid already delivered to Ukraine and the effects that weaponry has had on the war, according to the White House.

Zelesnkyy has pressed the US and other Western allies to provide Ukraine with military jets, something that the US and other NATO countries have thus far been unwilling to accommodate out of concern it could lead to Russia broadening the war beyond Ukraine's borders.

Prior to the announcement of $500m in aid, the Biden administration had sent Ukraine about $2b in humanitarian and security assistance since the start of the war last month.

Congress approved $13.6b that it approved earlier this month as part of a broader spending bill. Bedingfield said the latest round of financial assistance could be used by the Ukrainian government “to bolster its economy and pay for budgetary expenses” including government salaries and maintaining services.

Ukraine's presidential website says Zelenskyy told Biden: "We need peace, and it will be achieved only when we have a strong position on the battlefield. Our morale is firm, there is enough determination, but we need your immediate support.”

Zelenskyy in a Twitter post said that he also spoke to Biden about new sanctions against Russia. Bedingfield said the administration is looking at options to expand and deepen current sanctions.

The new intelligence came after the White House earlier expressed scepticism about Russia's public announcement that it would dial back operations near Kyiv in an effort to increase trust in ongoing talks between Ukrainian and Russian officials in Turkey.

Russian forces pounded areas around Ukraine’s capital and another city overnight, regional leaders said on Thursday (NZ time).

The Pentagon said that over the past 24 hours it had seen some Russian troops in the areas around Kyiv moving north toward or into Belarus.

Pentagon press secretary John Kirby said in interviews with CNN and Fox Business that the US does not view this as a withdrawal but as an attempt by Russia to resupply, refit and then reposition the troops.

Putin has long been seen outside Russia as insular and surrounded by officials who don’t always tell him the truth. US officials have said publicly they believe that limited flow of information – possibly exacerbated by Putin’s heightened isolation during the Covid-19 pandemic – may have given the Russian president unrealistic views of how quickly he could overrun Ukraine.

Before the war, the Biden administration launched an unprecedented effort to publicise what it believed were Putin’s invasion plans, drawing on intelligence findings. While Russia still invaded, the White House was widely credited with drawing attention to Ukraine and pushing initially reluctant allies to back tough sanctions that have hammered the Russian economy.

But underscoring the limits of intelligence, the US also underestimated Ukraine’s will to fight before the invasion, Scott Berrier, the head of the Defence Intelligence Agency, said in recent testimony before Congress.

This is not good news. Though it's not surprising either.

[Solauren]

Actually, as far as I am concerned, this is a good thing. If Putin pushes against them hard enough now, we might see him removed.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Vladimir Putin to stop gas exports to 'unfriendly' nations unless they pay in Russian rubles.

“Unfriendly countries” must start paying for Russian gas in rubles, or their supplies will be cut, Moscow has said.
The decree, published on Thursday by state media, came a day after the leaders of Italy and Germany said they received assurances from President Vladimir Putin.
Mr Putin talked tougher, saying that starting from Friday, Russia will start accepting ruble payments for Western countries that imposed sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine. He said contracts will be stopped if buyers don’t sign up to the new conditions, which include opening ruble accounts in Russian banks.

European leaders had previously rejected paying for deliveries in rubles, saying it would undermine sanctions imposed because of the war in Ukraine.
The decree President Putin signed was published by state news agency RIA Novosti, and says a designated bank will open two accounts for each buyer, one in foreign currency and one in rubles. The buyers will pay in foreign currency and authorise the bank to sell that currency for rubles, which are placed in the second account, where the gas is formally purchased.

Boris Johnson's office has said Russia's conditions showed “the impact that our sanctions are having on the Russian economy”.
Asked if there were any circumstances in which the UK would pay for gas in rubles, the PM's spokesperson said “that’s not something that we will be looking to do.

“There are no gas pipes directly linking the UK with Russia, our imports from Russia made up less than 4% of total UK gas supply in 2021, so we are obviously less reliant on it than many of our European partners.”

Speaking shortly after President Putin’s announcement, German chancellor Olaf Scholz said gas contracts stipulate payment mostly in euros and sometimes in dollars. He said he made clear to Putin in a phone call on Wednesday “that it will stay that way.”
“What his ideas are for how this can happen is what we will now look at closely,” Chancellor Scholz told reporters in Berlin.

“But in any case, what goes for companies is that they want to and will be able to pay in euros.”

Other western officials have said they are sceptical about Russia's threat to tear up gas contracts.

Their view is that it is very difficult for Russia to stop selling to the West, as it cannot replace the same level of sales by turning eastwards, for example to China.

In its latest raft of measures, the UK imposed sanctions on more than a dozen Russian media figures and organisations accused of spreading propaganda and disinformation about the war in Ukraine.

The US also imposed fresh sanctions on Thursday. This time, it targeted Russia's technology sector.

Do it Putin. I dare you.

[Solauren]

I wish someone would reply - Can't we just pay in Fertilizer? It's more valuable per kilogram.