UKRAINE WAR - 1 YEAR AND GOING.

[madd0c0t0r2]

Looks like Turkey is starting to bet against Russia
Reuters and the grain deal

TL:DR no need to post the whole thing but the grain deal has been a back and forth thing between Ukraine and Russia with Turkey as the mediator. The world wants Ukraine grain to flow, Russia does not and Turkey who can shut down the entire sea to Russia and is in NATO has been getting lots of brownie points by keeping the deal going.

If Russia shuts the deal down entirely they might lose the entire Baltic sea trade because Turkey holds the keys to that sea route and can close it or open it as they wish. Normally it's open because they make good money of keeping it open, but this entire Ukrainian war has not been a good thing for them except where they have found places (Like the grain deal) to get some back.

I wonder the impact of black sea blockade has other value of Crimea as a warm water port.

[Mr Bean]

You probably mean the Black Sea, as Baltic Sea is nowhere near Turkey (the ones holding the Key to the Baltic Sea are Denmark and Sweden thru the Danish Straights), while the Turkish Straights do hold the key to the Black Sea, they're nowhere near the Baltic Sea

You are correct, my brain said Black Sea but I questioned myself and said Baltic instead.

[LadyTevar]

I wonder the impact of black sea blockade has other value of Crimea as a warm water port.

Isn't Sochi also on the Black Sea? Isn't that another port, or am I confused?

[fnord]

Tev, Sochi's on the eastern shores of the Black Sea. According to Google Maps, it's more of a resort town than a port town.

[Lord Revan]

You probably mean the Black Sea, as Baltic Sea is nowhere near Turkey (the ones holding the Key to the Baltic Sea are Denmark and Sweden thru the Danish Straights), while the Turkish Straights do hold the key to the Black Sea, they're nowhere near the Baltic Sea

You are correct, my brain said Black Sea but I questioned myself and said Baltic instead.

Probably didn't help that Turkey is near the Balkans (no one said Europeans were inventive when came to names ).

[Lord Revan]

Tev, Sochi's on the eastern shores of the Black Sea. According to Google Maps, it's more of a resort town than a port town.

Either way as long the Turkish Straights are only way in or out from the Black Sea, the problem that will face Crimea will face any Russian port. Turkish Straights aren't just a fancy name but rather they're 100% within the territory of Turkey and only thing keeping it open for international trade is a treaty.

If Turkey decides that it no longer wants to permit Russian warships use the Turkish Straights there's not much Russia can do due Turkey being a NATO member and Bosporus Straight, the northern most of the 2 straights that make up the Turkish Straights isn't just within Turkey but fully within Istanbul so there's no way to travel the straight and not be in Turkish waters.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

My question is why Ukrainian War POWs were in Turkey to begin with?

[Solauren]

My question is why Ukrainian War POWs were in Turkey to begin with?

Because from a political, legal, and military stand-point, NATO is not in this conflict. Turkey has enough ties to both the Ukraine and Russia to be considered a 'neutral third party' to hold them and everyone accept 'they are not being mistreated'.

[LadyTevar]

Tev, Sochi's on the eastern shores of the Black Sea. According to Google Maps, it's more of a resort town than a port town.

I assume because the geography wasn't good enough for a port.

[LadyTevar]

My question is why Ukrainian War POWs were in Turkey to begin with?

Because from a political, legal, and military stand-point, NATO is not in this conflict. Turkey has enough ties to both the Ukraine and Russia to be considered a 'neutral third party' to hold them and everyone accept 'they are not being mistreated'.

IIRC, Edrogan was also the one to negotiate the prisoner exchange as a neutral third party.

But ... it's clear the tide's turned. He's even accepting Sweden into NATO. Probably so he can block Ukraine, but we'll see.

I love the new thread with the "Sea of Brotherhood" comic

[Solauren]

I've read a theory that him letting Sweden into NATO is in exchange for Turkey getting into the EU

[Highlord Laan]

France is sending SCALP to Ukraine, enabling Ukraine to drive the unlubed dildo of consequences even deeper.

[Crazedwraith]

SCALP being a kind of long range missile.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

That's the French version of Storm Shadow, Ukraine has been using the British one for a couple of months already.

[LaCroix]

Aaand the only commander who showed adaptation and initiative has spoken up that the current (non-existent) Russian counter-battery capabilities will ensure that they will get thinned out and subsequently overrun, and was promptly fired for having a brain.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/12/euro ... index.html

[LadyTevar]

Aaand the only commander who showed adaptation and initiative has spoken up that the current (non-existent) Russian counter-battery capabilities will ensure that they will get thinned out and subsequently overrun, and was promptly fired for having a brain.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/12/euro ... index.html

But wait, he's not the ONLY General in trouble

Wagner-linked senior general Sergei Surovikin 'resting'
TL:DR version? Surovikin is "not reachable" and unconfirmed reports say he's "Held for Questioning" over his ties with Wagner.

[LaCroix]

Well, purges are an old Russian army tradition...

[LadyTevar]

Russia is moving fast to get the Crimean bridge up and running again.

Russia says one lane open to cars

Ukraine did admit to bombing it this time, or rather using a 'water-based drone'. Last time it was the railroad that got hit, this time it was one of the car lanes.
I am wondering how Russia got it fixed so fast. The repair to the rail line should have taken months, but was back up and running within a couple weeks. Now, a few days after being hit, they're allowing cars to use one lane of the bridge to cross. They couldn't have had time to inspect the support pylon or make repairs on it.

[Zwinmar]

Hmm, catastrophe waiting to happen. Get a whole load of civilians going over it at the same time and drop it, claim Ukraine did it.

[bilateralrope]

Hmm, catastrophe waiting to happen. Get a whole load of civilians going over it at the same time and drop it, claim Ukraine did it.

Maybe. But I think it's just Russia rushing to get the bridge reopened without thinking about any long term risks. Or thinking that the personal risks of angering Putin are greater.

It probably won't make much difference to the end result.

[Lord Revan]

There's also the possibility that since it's one the few semi reliable logistical routes they got to Ukraine it got priority over other things. As brutal Russia has been they're not doing things evil for the sake of doing evil, there's logic behind their actions, twisted vile logic but there's reason for how things are. They're not not so incompetent that they're magically forced to do the exact opposite they're suppose to do.

It's a clusterfuck there's no arguments there but a realistic clusterfuck where the people who should know what they're doing have their priorities mixed and those who don't know what they're doing (aka mostly the common soldiers) are tasked with fixing things, but told to not ask questions.

It ain't new or supernatural and thus they sometimes do things competently even intentionally competently.

[madd0c0t0r2]

Russia is moving fast to get the Crimean bridge up and running again.

Russia says one lane open to cars

Ukraine did admit to bombing it this time, or rather using a 'water-based drone'. Last time it was the railroad that got hit, this time it was one of the car lanes.
I am wondering how Russia got it fixed so fast. The repair to the rail line should have taken months, but was back up and running within a couple weeks. Now, a few days after being hit, they're allowing cars to use one lane of the bridge to cross. They couldn't have had time to inspect the support pylon or make repairs on it.

Got to be honest, the photos I saw didn't look so bad. The other road deck was sitting still and square on its bearings. According to https://www.engineering.com/story/europ ... led-waters. The road deck approach viaduct has a bunch of spread piles going into a crisis head from which rises 3 pillars supporting the two decks (normally you'd expect a 2nd crosshead between the top of those pillars too, but maybe it alters along route and pillar height).

BIT looking at https://images.app.goo.gl/kMX6P2JXfnoTLddz6. It looks like at the attacked location each deck sits on a single pillar (so 2 not 3). The explosion must have lifted the end of the span up and dropped it a bit off center, causing it to sag.
That's definitely not putting any real forces into the other road deck.

[LadyTevar]

Got to be honest, the photos I saw didn't look so bad. The other road deck was sitting still and square on its bearings. According to https://www.engineering.com/story/europ ... led-waters. The road deck approach viaduct has a bunch of spread piles going into a crisis head from which rises 3 pillars supporting the two decks (normally you'd expect a 2nd crosshead between the top of those pillars too, but maybe it alters along route and pillar height).

BIT looking at https://images.app.goo.gl/kMX6P2JXfnoTLddz6. It looks like at the attacked location each deck sits on a single pillar (so 2 not 3). The explosion must have lifted the end of the span up and dropped it a bit off center, causing it to sag.
That's definitely not putting any real forces into the other road deck.

Thank you
Not even close to an engineer, so it just looked like something I'd be afraid to risk driving over.

I'm still thinking that Ukraine is 'dialing in' the next attack on the bridge, and plan to make it effectively impossible to quick-fix.

[EnterpriseSovereign]

Thousands evacuated after Crimea ammunition depot bursts into flames

Thousands of civilians have been evacuated after an ammunition depot in Russian-annexed Crimea went up in flames, setting off a series of explosions.

Blasts were still being heard several hours after the fire was reported at the Kirovske military base on Wednesday morning, Russian media reported.

Authorities did not specify the cause of the blaze, but footage showed columns of black smoke billowing into the sky.

The incident came just days after an explosion on the Kerch bridge linking the Black Sea peninsula to mainland Russia, which the Kremlin has blamed on Ukraine.

Local authorities said more than two thousand people were evacuated from villages surrounding the depot. They were reportedly provided with temporary shelter.

Sections of the Tavrida highway, which connects Sevastopol to the Crimean port of Kerch, were closed, with vehicles redirected through regional roads.

Sergei Aksyonov, the Russian-backed head of Crimea, said: “In the Kirovske district, it is planned to temporarily evacuate residents of four settlements – this is more than two thousand people.

“An operational headquarters has been deployed, all specialised services are working on the spot.”

Vladimir Konstantinov, head of Crimea’s state council, appeared to suggest Ukraine was behind the attacks.

“The situation is dynamic. For the moment, everything is under control,” Mr Konstantinov said in a post on the Telegram messaging app.

“Kyiv is doing everything to shake up the situation inside Crimea. But they cannot understand that it all works in the opposite direction. Since 2014, we have been withstanding their provocations,” he added.

“Explosions at the training ground are still heard [at 12:45 local time]… In Crimea, there is experience in dealing with such situations.”

Early reports suggested Kylylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, had taken credit for the fire and hailed a “successful operation”.

However, this was later denied by the defence ministry and attributed to a fake post on Telegram.

Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 in a move not recognised by the international community.

Kyiv has repeatedly said it plans to take back the peninsula as part of its drive to expel Russian troops from its territory.

Separately on Wednesday, Ukraine accused Russia of having intentionally struck grain terminals and infrastructure in the Black Sea port of Odesa for a second consecutive night after Moscow quit a deal that allowed the safe export of Ukrainian grain to global markets.

“Russian terrorists absolutely deliberately targeted the infrastructure of the grain deal,” said Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, following Tuesday’s overnight attacks.

“Every Russian missile – is a strike not only on Ukraine but on everyone in the world who wants a normal and safe life.”

The Black Sea grain deal, agreed in July last year, was intended to combat a global food crisis worsened by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and a blockade of Ukrainian ports.

Mr Zelensky has said the agreement could continue without Russian participation, and that Ukraine is working on options to keep its commitments on food supplies.

Russia announced on Monday that it was quitting the deal, complaining that promises to free up its own shipments of food and fertilisers had not been kept.

[Zaune]

Ukrainian drone strike, local partisans, ex-Wagner merc who's unhappy with their pay and working conditions or simple negligence? Place your bets, folks!