Ukraine War Thread

[Vympel]

Oh, hey - a part for which 13% of Ukraine's population voted for in the last election - the Ukrainian Communist Party - is being banned. Ukrainian democratic values, clearly going strong.

[Thanas]

There was an election. Ukraine has a democratically elected president who should not have to declare himself illegitimate because armed thugs who boycotted and prevented the election in their area don't like him.

Still doesn't know the differnece between the president and parliament/ prime minister / cabinet, who got elected, and who didn't.

No, apparently you don't know that elections could not be held in the east because there was a violent insurgency going on.

In the Donbass region of Ukraine only 20% of the ballot stations were open due to threats and violence by pro-Russia separatists.[15] Of the 2,430 planned ballot stations (in Donbass) only 426 remained open for polling.[15] The self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic and Lugansk People's Republic, controlling large parts of the Donbass, had vowed to do everything possible to disrupt the elections

Or did that just not happen?

[Ziggy Stardust]

Because it was. That's not spin, that's the goddamn truth. He didn't just "flee" of his own volition, he was forced out, under duress. What, he didn't wanna be President anymore? Parliament's impeachment of him was illegal.

That's a fact:

Here

Go on, tell me how you respond to that. I want an explicit response.

I am neutral on this whole debate, because I don't know enough about the situation to feel comfortable talking about it.

Still, I feel the need to comment here, because your entire position is essentially contingent on this point, supported by that link. But ... well, I don't feel like that is a particularly trustworthy source. Cherry-picked interpretations of Ukrainian law from a random anonymous blog that only started in February and has since seemed to have ceased operation? I'm not saying that interpretation is necessarily wrong, but just that there is absolutely nothing on that blog that I can find that would make me feel comfortable calling it a reputable source.

Further, even taking that link at face value, I don't see how you extrapolated from alleged breach of parliamentary procedure to calling the entire government fascist and illegitimate, as you have multiple times. I'm not saying you are wrong (I honestly have no clue), I just don't really see a firm basis for that claim at the moment.

(EDIT: I apologize if you've given other sources in this thread, but I'm not weeding through 34 pages to find it)

[K. A. Pital]

Why would people in the East though want to elect Poroshenko or give him extra legitimacy?..

[Vympel]

No, apparently you don't know that elections could not be held in the east because there was a violent insurgency going on.

What is it about the difference between presidential and parliamentary elections are you just. not. processing?

Its really, really, really fucking simple - Poroshenko is the President of Ukraine. The disruption of the election that you just won't stop bitching about was about was the election that brought Poroshenko to power - a presidential election. No one is saying there needs be another presidential election. What's done is done. The Parliament however - and the Prime Minister - and his cabinet - is a 100% product of the coup, and is entirely illegitimate and unrepresentative.

Do you get it yet? Fuck's sake!

I am neutral on this whole debate, because I don't know enough about the situation to feel comfortable talking about it.

Still, I feel the need to comment here, because your entire position is essentially contingent on this point, supported by that link. But ... well, I don't feel like that is a particularly trustworthy source. Cherry-picked interpretations of Ukrainian law from a random anonymous blog that only started in February and has since seemed to have ceased operation? I'm not saying that interpretation is necessarily wrong, but just that there is absolutely nothing on that blog that I can find that would make me feel comfortable calling it a reputable source.

That Yanukovych's toppling was a legal farce is widely acknowledged, I just picked that link because its short, punchy, and indicates the multiple heads by which it was illegal. The laws quoted are entirely unambiguous - if someone wants to claim it actually was legal, the burden of proof is on them to find how those quoted laws don't apply. Its not incumbent on me to link the entire Ukrainian constitution just to establish that there's no other relevant head of power to depose him on.

That is not to say that Yanukovych's deposition would've been kosher if after they hounded him and his deputies from Kiev (depsite the absurd propaganda that tries to claim he just left of his own volition) they had maintained legal forms.

here's someone else admitting it was a coup, but calling it just (based as usual on the dead protesters canard, for which there is still no evidence Yanu was responsible, and for which there has been no real investigation), for a different perspective and the same conclusion

Further, even taking that link at face value, I don't see how you extrapolated from alleged breach of parliamentary procedure to calling the entire government fascist and illegitimate, as you have multiple times. I'm not saying you are wrong (I honestly have no clue), I just don't really see a firm basis for that claim at the moment.

The so-called Prime Minister's cabinet is illegitimate because it concentrates power entirely in he hands of the opposition in circumstances where they have no democratic claim to that power. And I never called the entire government fascist, I said it was riddled with fascists- which it is . High level cabinet posts were handed out to far right political figures who have no significant percentage of the vote anywhere in Ukraine. Why? Because its a payoff for the assistance their street thugs provided in the Maidan fighting with police.

That there needs to be new parliamentary elections (after some sort of deal is reached in the east so the east gets the representation to which it is entitled) and that this cabinet needs to be turfed out ASAP should be entirely undisputed by anyone with a brain.

Why would people in the East though want to elect Poroshenko or give him extra legitimacy?..

They wouldn't. Its irrelevant anyway, for the purposes of peace, the chocolate oligarch would have to remain President, even though the circumstances of his election were a joke. Like I said:

You don't need to risk forces to de-escalate this mess. Both sides need to be reined in by their respective supporters. Kiev should offer concessions to the east to mollify them. At the very least, there needs to be new parliamentary elections as soon as fucking possible, and Ukraine's farcical cabinet needs to be compeletely remade. That Andrey Parubiy is actually anywhere near the state's security appartus is a fucking disgrace. The rebels in the east should agree that separatism of any kind is off the table and lay down their arms - subject to an appropriate amnesty for anyone who didn't commit war crimes. After that, they can have a proper referendum in the east as to getting more power on how to decide their affairs.

But the Maidan should not get to benefit from a blatantly illegal seizure of power and then tell the segment of the country that got fucked by it that they can go jump. There will never be peace if that's the position.

I'm not sure if Thanas is simply not paying attention or simply doesn't care, but his position currently is "the rebels in the east disrupted the presidential elections that Kiev decided to hold during an open conflict, so in any peace proposal the entire east has no right to any new elections whatsoever, even though they have nothing to do with the president."

[Ziggy Stardust]

Thanks for clarifying, Vympel.

[Vympel]

Thanks for clarifying, Vympel.

No worries. I just realised from my tone (being residual exasperation about the whole situation) that you may think I was implying you didn't have a brain, which was certainly not my intent.

[Thanas]

No, apparently you don't know that elections could not be held in the east because there was a violent insurgency going on.

What is it about the difference between presidential and parliamentary elections are you just. not. processing?

Its really, really, really fucking simple - Poroshenko is the President of Ukraine. The disruption of the election that you just won't stop bitching about was about was the election that brought Poroshenko to power - a presidential election. No one is saying there needs be another presidential election. What's done is done. The Parliament however - and the Prime Minister - and his cabinet - is a 100% product of the coup, and is entirely illegitimate and unrepresentative.

Do you get it yet? Fuck's sake!

Oh get off it. There were also local elections, which too were democratic and free. Nothing is stopping there to be free parliamentary elections, except of course the actions of the rebels. You don't get to claim the moral high ground if you are the one causing the problems in the first place.

I'm not sure if Thanas is simply not paying attention or simply doesn't care, but his position currently is "the rebels in the east disrupted the presidential elections that Kiev decided to hold during an open conflict, so in any peace proposal the entire east has no right to any new elections whatsoever, even though they have nothing to do with the president."

No, fuckoff, I am saying that they are murderous scum which has instituted a reign of terror in the east, without provocation (and they don't even care about the cowardly former president either, or do you see them using him as a leader?). There was no plan to oppress the Russian minority that ever got close to being put in action.

Oh, and the only situation that was resolved to the wishes of the people was Crimea, where Russia in effect infiltrated and then annexed it. What is happening in the east is nothing but another massive Russian-sponsored operation designed to weaken its neighbours, doing nothing but reaffirming that Russian guarantees for the territorial integrities of other nations are worth less than crap and that the Ukraine was a massive idiot ever trusting the Russians and giving up their nukes.

[Vympel]

Oh get off it. There were also local elections, which too were democratic and free. Nothing is stopping there to be free parliamentary elections, except of course the actions of the rebels. You don't get to claim the moral high ground if you are the one causing the problems in the first place.

What the fuck are you even talking about? What "local" elections? For the election of whom? Do you even remember what is being discussed, or have you completely lost track? I'm talking about a realistic and reasonable proposal for peace. Who gives a fuck about mayoral elections? You're casting about in a pointless and massively hypocritical blame game - speaking of which:

"don't get to claim the moral high ground if you are the one causing the problems in the first place" - because once again, what happened in February was good and just and democratic, eh? Not that you can actually be arsed to defend such a ridiculous position, given how you excised the vast majority of my last post from your reply.The "problems" only started when those damn "murderous scum" (read, the entire east, in your utterly poisoned view) took exception, right? Damn trouble makers

What is your point even supposed to be, apart from complaining? I talk approvingly about a proposal which recognises how the Yatsenyuk cabinet is completely illegitimate and unrepresentative - not to mention fucking dangerous - and how parliamentary elections should be a part of a peace process, all you can do is complain about presidential elections held during a war. I say those presidential elections are irrelevant to the point and Poroshenko's presidency is not on the table, you talk some silly crap about podunk-who-gives-a-shit mayoral elections. I mean come the fuck on.

No, fuckoff, I am saying that they are murderous scum which has instituted a reign of terror in the east, without provocation

Bullshit. This began with acts of public protest and taking over public buildings - just like the Maidan. It then escalated significantly when Kiev attacked them in an attempt to quell the unrest - with troops. Your "reign of terror" is nothing but breathless hyperbole, and the paucity of evidence presented to sell this narrative could far more easily be used to argue there was a "reign of terror" on the part of the west. I didn't see some 50 pro-Maidan protesters burned alive by pro-Russians. I didn't see pro-Russian politicians storm into a pro-western tv station and beat the shit out of the company president for having the temerity to broadcast something they didn't like.

You're such a blind idelogue on this issue that:

1. You have no regard for the rights of an entire segment of the Ukrainian population that were abrogated by the events of February - treating them as illegitimate because they identify closely with Russia - something which is entirely within their rights. The people of the west do not have a fucking monopoly on the identity and direction of Ukraine, in any sense - or they shouldn't, in an actual democracy; and

2. Confronted with inconvenient facts about those events, you deny an entire segment of the population all political agency and denounce the lot of them as "murderous scum" because - well after the conflict had escalated - something Kiev indisputably instigated - an infinitesmal handful of them executed two prisoners on live television.

3. To assist in selling 2, you pretend as if an armed insurgency started in the east immediately. Apparently only 1 week or so passed between late February and June, in your estimation.

(and they don't even care about the cowardly former president either, or do you see them using him as a leader?). There was no plan to oppress the Russian minority that ever got close to being put in action.

The very toppling of a democratically elected government which they voted for oppressed them, by definition!

I wonder how you would react if the entire political order in which you held a stake was upended in a violent and illegal fashion, and was replaced by something entirely different and entirely the opposite of what you stood for. I'm sure you'd just meekly sit there and accept the legitimacy of that, wouldn't you?

Oh, and the only situation that was resolved to the wishes of the people was Crimea, where Russia in effect infiltrated and then annexed it. What is happening in the east is nothing but another massive Russian-sponsored operation designed to weaken its neighbours, doing nothing but reaffirming that Russian guarantees for the territorial integrities of other nations are worth less than crap and that the Ukraine was a massive idiot ever trusting the Russians and giving up their nukes.

Is your Manichean rant at Russia over yet? The issue us achieving a good treaty in Ukraine, which is how this tangent started.

"If only those damn Russians hadn't interfered in our lovely little coup, none of this would have happened! Those lowlifes in the east would take the medicine we have laid out for them! We're such victims!"

Even if this was something other than a delusional fantasy to convince you of your preferred side's moral superiority, what does it accomplish? You're apparently far more obsessed with zero-sum estimates of denying Russia a 'victory', no matter how insignificant, than what is actually practical and is going to conclusively stop the conflict. You rant on and on about "murderous scum" but none of your opprobrium about killing appears to be reserved for the troops that are even now bombing and shelling the and killing hundreds of civilians, is it? Are the lives of those in the east worth less in your estimation?

You want a great victory over Russia's interests and those in the east who look to Russia? You won't get it. Ever. Even if the rebels are destroyed / defeated, which appears likely, Russia will never accept the outcome, and it is Russia's number 1 foreign policy priority. It is simply not that big of a priority for anyone else.

[Borgholio]

Ukrainian Prime Minister resigns along with whole cabinet.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/worl ... /13091533/

KIEV, Ukraine (AP) — Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk has announced his resignation following turmoil in government.

Yatsenyuk made the announcement from the dais of the parliament after two parties said they would pull out of the governing coalition. "I am announcing my resignation in connect with the collapse of the coalition," Yatsenyuk said.

He said the parliament could no longer do its work and pass necessary laws.

The nationalist Svoboda party and the UDAR movement led by former boxer Vladimir Klitscho pulled out of the group of legislators that took over after former President Viktor Yanukovich was ousted by protesters seeking closer ties with the European Union.

[Vympel]

Good fucking riddance.

EDIT: I don't know exactly how things will work from this stage, but obviously there needs to be a new interim cabinet and every single far right fuckwit in the current cabinet needs to be expunged right now (i.e. they simply cannot be let back in, not with their percentage of the vote), with new elections the moment the situation in the east is stabilised. And by stabilised I mean an acceptable peace for everyone.

That's probably wishful thinking though.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

Why the resignation? What's going on at this point?

[Vympel]

Why the resignation? What's going on at this point?

http://www.smh.com.au/world/yatsenyuk-r ... zwmxe.html

Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk resigned after two parties quit the ruling coalition and President Petro Poroshenko signaled his support for early elections.

"The fact that the coalition has fallen apart, that laws haven't been voted on, that soldiers can't be paid, that there is no money to buy rifles, that there is no possibility to fill gas storages. What options do we have now?" Yatsenyuk told lawmakers in Kiev today.

Yatsenyuk's administration took charge of Ukraine in February after pro-European street protests prompted Kremlin- backed President Viktor Yanukovych to flee. Since then, the government has battled a pro-Russian insurgency in the east of the country supported by the government in Moscow.

The UDAR and Svoboda parties pushed the country to a vote that would replace the parliament elected in 2012. Poroshenko, whose troops are battling a pro-Russian insurgency in the nation's easternmost regions, vowed to call a parliamentary ballot after he was elected in May.

"We will probably have snap parliamentary elections at the end of October," Yuriy Yakymenko, the head of political research at the Razumkov Center, said by phone from Kiev. "This option was probably agreed on by political parties."

I just hope this situation is resolved by the end of October.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

Why the resignation? What's going on at this point?

http://www.smh.com.au/world/yatsenyuk-r ... zwmxe.html

Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk resigned after two parties quit the ruling coalition and President Petro Poroshenko signaled his support for early elections.

"The fact that the coalition has fallen apart, that laws haven't been voted on, that soldiers can't be paid, that there is no money to buy rifles, that there is no possibility to fill gas storages. What options do we have now?" Yatsenyuk told lawmakers in Kiev today.

Yatsenyuk's administration took charge of Ukraine in February after pro-European street protests prompted Kremlin- backed President Viktor Yanukovych to flee. Since then, the government has battled a pro-Russian insurgency in the east of the country supported by the government in Moscow.

The UDAR and Svoboda parties pushed the country to a vote that would replace the parliament elected in 2012. Poroshenko, whose troops are battling a pro-Russian insurgency in the nation's easternmost regions, vowed to call a parliamentary ballot after he was elected in May.

"We will probably have snap parliamentary elections at the end of October," Yuriy Yakymenko, the head of political research at the Razumkov Center, said by phone from Kiev. "This option was probably agreed on by political parties."

I just hope this situation is resolved by the end of October.

Didn't they just ban the Communist party? Is the Party of Regions still around at all?

I'm very curious with regard to the dysfunctionality. Did they finally realise the reforms were too hard to bite?

[Vympel]

Didn't they just ban the Communist party? Is the Party of Regions still around at all?

I'm very curious with regard to the dysfunctionality. Did they finally realise the reforms were too hard to bite?

Really early stages given it just happened - I'm sure we'll find out more soon. I think the ban of the Communists is going before a court or something soon, if it hasn't already. Haven't had a chance to check up on it. The Party of Regions is a spent force politically.

[Vympel]

Not encouraging. Read speculation that the collapse of the government is a pretext for early elections - the nationalist factions will increase their power, while the eastern parties will have zero reps due to the effects of the rebellion - no Party of Regions (current or former) reps or Communists. I had that in the back of my mind when I hoped the situation would have stablisied by October.

[Mange]

Judging by social media, it seems as if the so-called "Donetsk People's Republic" is on the verge of collapsing. Shakhtarsk and Krasnyj Luch are reported to be in the hands of government forces (effectively blocking the militias from reaching the east) and armoured vehicles have entered Torez (from where the victims of MH17 were moved by train to Kharkiv).

[K. A. Pital]

It was 'on the verge of collapsing' since the war started, so I'd rather wait for the actual collapse.

[Mange]

It was 'on the verge of collapsing' since the war started, so I'd rather wait for the actual collapse.

Well, it's rumored that Gerkin and Bezler has fled (Gerkin after having complained in a video that from a population 4.6 million, there were only around a 1,000 volunteers).

Yesterday, the US released what they claim is evidence of cross-border artillery fire from Russia (the images are of primary interest): Time A Russian soldier has also written on Vkontakte that they've opened fire on Ukraine: Voice of Ukraine (not the most impartial site, but it has a good summary)

[K. A. Pital]

CNN did report about the use of SRBMs against rebel towns? Can anyone confirm?

[TimothyC]

CNN did report about the use of SRBMs against rebel towns? Can anyone confirm?

CNN has reported that.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

CNN did report about the use of SRBMs against rebel towns? Can anyone confirm?

CNN has reported that.

Ok. I know there won't be much outrage from Western press but.... Eh ... This is quite an escalation.

[Irbis]

CNN did report about the use of SRBMs against rebel towns? Can anyone confirm?

Well, there's this video. Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised, that is not big step up from blanket bombardment of civilians with Uragan and Grad batteries with cluster bombs. Funny that, I am sure the same useful idiots in the west that tried to claim 'there are no neonazis on Maidan' by spamming a photo of few rare girls from there will now claim these are totally surgical bombardments, honest, and they don't kill daily more civilians than died in MH plane, doublehonest!

What is happening in the east is nothing but another massive Russian-sponsored operation designed to weaken its neighbours, doing nothing but reaffirming that Russian guarantees for the territorial integrities of other nations are worth less than crap and that the Ukraine was a massive idiot ever trusting the Russians and giving up their nukes.

Yeah, I am sure decades of crapping on big minority during drunk Yeltsin years and denying them basic rights had nothing to do with it

I read many dumb things here, but suggestion that it would be better to let keep half-failed, extremely corrupt state that for most of its existence couldn't keep their military arsenals straight nuclear arsenal just to spite Russia is so brain-numbingly stupid it takes whole mountain of cakes. Hello, if you don't remember, USA and UK pushed to make Russia only ex-Soviet state to posses nukes because others couldn't be trusted with them. In case you are unaware, that includes Poland, too, soon to became NATO member country sent its uranium stockpile to Russia, and yet, you'd let fascist have access to them

Please, do enlighten us, what exactly Ukrainian nukes would have deterred? Donieck would be nuked after uprising? Poroshenko would have threaten to nuke Moscow if... the Russian army that cunningly is only seen on its side of border and still didn't left one single proof of their presence in Ukraine did not leave? Or would it just cause the whole crisis to be far more serious and in fact give Russians pretext to enter in full force to 'secure' the nukes?

[Mange]

CNN did report about the use of SRBMs against rebel towns? Can anyone confirm?

Yes, I heard that as well. The use of SRBMs against the separatist militia was confirmed by the Pentagon and the US apparently wasn't too happy about it as it was seen as escalating the situation.

ETA: I was going to look online, but I see that Irbis has already posted a relevant link. And yes, Thanas, this is a mostly a Russian show aimed at destabilizing Ukraine (and the Russian involvement continues). Heck, even Girkin complained about people not joining the militias (which is unsurprising due to the reign of fear the rebels have instituted, even executing people for stealing shirts). The separatists' legitimate concerns and interests must be properly addressed by Ukraine.

[K. A. Pital]

Well, executing people for stealing is a must for any rebellion. If you cannot keep order in rebel-controlled areas, your 'rebellion' will end sooner than you can say 'Allah is the greatest".

Seriously. Executing looters is 'rebel rule #2'. The rebel rule number one is that population is the water where the fish swim; there's no need to poison the well or alienate the locals. Which is pretty much why the rebels weren't using MRLS on cities, but only when the opposite Army units were caught in the open.

Check out the ISIS thread. I can't find people I'm less sympathetic to, but it is also true that maintaining discipline and executing looters, including your own members or those that think there's 'lawlessness' somehow is very, very important to gaining ground.