Sorry Putin, You're only making Cheney's penis harder.

[Einhander Sn0m4n]

'Attack Iran and you attack Russia!'

Attack Iran and you attack Russia
By Pepe Escobar

The barely reported highlight of Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to Tehran for the Caspian Sea summit last week was a key face-to-face meeting with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

A high-level diplomatic source in Tehran tells Asia Times Online that essentially Putin and the Supreme Leader have agreed on a plan to nullify the George W Bush administration's relentless drive towards launching a preemptive attack, perhaps a tactical nuclear



strike, against Iran. An American attack on Iran will be viewed by Moscow as an attack on Russia.

But then, as if this were not enough of a political bombshell, came the abrupt resignation of Ali Larijani as top Iranian nuclear negotiator. Early this week in Rome, Larijani told the IRNA news agency that "Iran's nuclear policies are stable and will not change with the replacement of the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council [SNSC]." Larijani will keep attending SNSC meetings, now as a representative of the Supreme Leader. He even took time to remind the West that in the Islamic Republic all key decisions regarding the civilian nuclear program are made by the Supreme Leader. Larijani actually went to Rome to meet with the European Union's Javier Solana alongside Iran's new negotiator, Saeed Jalili, a former member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), just like President Mahmud Ahmadinejad.

In itself, the Putin-Khamenei meeting was extraordinary, because the Supreme Leader rarely receives foreign statesmen for closed talks, even one as crucial as Putin. The Russian president, according to the diplomatic source, told the Supreme Leader he may hold the ultimate solution regarding the endlessly controversial Iranian nuclear dossier. According to IRNA, the Supreme Leader, after stressing that the Iranian civilian nuclear program will continue unabated, said. "We will ponder your words and proposal."

Larijani himself had told the Iranian media that Putin had a "special plan" and the Supreme Leader observed that the plan was "ponderable". The problem is that Ahmadinejad publicly denied the Russians had volunteered a new plan.

Iranian hawks close to Ahmadinejad are spinning that Putin's proposal involves Iran temporarily suspending uranium enrichment in exchange for no more United Nations sanctions. That's essentially what International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohammad ElBaradei has been working on all along. The key issue is what - in practical terms - will Iran get in return. Obviously it's not the EU's Solana who will have the answer. But as far as Russia is concerned, strategically nothing will appease it except a political/diplomatic solution for the Iranian nuclear dossier.

US Vice President Dick Cheney - who even Senator Hillary Clinton now refers to as Darth Vader - must be foaming at the mouth; but the fact is that after the Caspian summit, Iran and Russia are officially entangled in a strategic partnership. World War III, for them, is definitely not on the cards.

Let's read from the same script
The apparent internal controversy on how exactly Putin and the Supreme Leader are on the same wavelength belies a serious rift in the higher spheres of the Islamic Republic. The replacement of Larijani, a realist hawk, by Jalili, an unknown quantity with an even more hawkish background, might spell an Ahmadinejad victory. It's not that simple.

The powerful Ali Akbar Velayati, the diplomatic adviser to the Supreme Leader, said he didn't like the replacement one bit. Even worse: regarding the appalling record of the Ahmadinejad presidency when it comes to the economy, all-out criticism is now the norm. Another former nuclear negotiator, Hassan Rowhani, told the Etemad-e Melli newspaper, "The effects of the [UN] sanctions are visible. Our situation gets worse day by day."

Ahmadinejad for the past two months has been placing his former IRGC brothers-in-arms in key posts, like the presidency of the central bank and the Oil, Industry and Interior ministries. Internal repression is rife. On Sunday, hundreds of students protested at the Amir-Kabir University in Tehran, calling for "Death to the dictator".

The wily, ultimate pragmatist Hashemi Rafsanjani, now leader of the Council of Experts and in practice a much more powerful figure than Ahmadinejad, took no time to publicly reflect that "we can't bend people's thoughts with dictatorial regimes".

This week, the Supreme Leader himself intervened, saying, "I approve of this government, but this does not mean that I approve of everything they do." Under the currently explosive circumstances, this also amounts to a political bombshell.

As if anyone needed to be reminded, the buck - or rial - stops with the Supreme Leader, whose last wish on earth is to furnish a pretext for the Bush administration to launch World War III. If Ahmadinejad now deviates from a carefully crafted strategic script, the Supreme Leader may simply get rid of him.

Pepe Escobar is the author of Globalistan: How the Globalized World is Dissolving into Liquid War (Nimble Books, 2007). He may be reached at pepeasia@yahoo.com.

I see only a backfire resulting in World War III from this. Yes, you can thank the PNAC neocons and pigopolists for it when it's done and half the world's population is dead.

[Kane Starkiller]

First of all there is no way Russia will sacrifice Moscow and St.Petersburg to avenge Tehran. Secondly this kind of "attack Iran and you attack us" dare can only incite US since they will then have even more of a reason to move in and show just who is boss.
I doubt Putin actually said anything like that.

[VT-16]

Isn't it tantamount to saying Iran is a Russian protectorate? Ho ho ho, that can't go well with Iranian national pride.

[J]

I see only a backfire resulting in World War III from this. Yes, you can thank the PNAC neocons and pigopolists for it when it's done and half the world's population is dead.

Look on the bright side, WWIII will solve the Peak Oil problem!

[Pablo Sanchez]

First of all there is no way Russia will sacrifice Moscow and St.Petersburg to avenge Tehran.

Moscow and St. Petersburg aren't in any danger, because Russia and the USA are still in a MAD situation. An American attack on Russia's centers of power will be a WWIII-type escalation. Boom. But that's never going to happen. By declaring his close support for Iran, Putin is pretty much blocking war with Iran as a viable option and making anybody with ambitions to fight the Iranians back off and think about it real hard. As an example, Israel isn't going to be so keen to make a first strike on Iranian nuclear facilities if they can expect modern MiGs alerted by Russian-built early-warning stations and flown by Russian-trained pilots to rise to intercept the IAF.

Also, even if it doesn't guarantee that nobody will attack Iran, it at least guarantees the survival of the Iranian regime. Iran can fight a war and get it's nose bloodied, but Russia is going to call time out before anybody gets near Tehran. Russia is still the second greatest military power in the world; even the USA will have to take notice. There isn't going to be a replay of Iraq.

Secondly this kind of "attack Iran and you attack us" dare can only incite US since they will then have even more of a reason to move in and show just who is boss.

Yes, American might is unlimited.

Now, I'm not going to go retarded and say that America couldn't win a war against Iran and Russia. What I am going to say is that it would alienate many of the members of NATO, perhaps to the point of them walking out on the alliance, and it would require substantial mobilization of the American war economy to defeat Russia. Our current force strengths are insufficient to completely secure Iraq and Afghanistan, after all.

In fact, what is going to happen is, the prospect of Russian involvement in any war with Iran will make it even more unpalatable to American military authorities and to the American public in general.

Putin's reasons for supporting Iran would go like this--
1) Cock-blocking America right now gains him political capital, amazingly enough. He's expending it at a rapid rate, what with always exerting pressure on Ukraine and being a dictator. But standing up to Bush makes him look good in Russia and impresses other European governments and their populations. You can see this effect in practice by looking at Hugo Chavez.
2) Russia wants Iran to be secure, because Iran is strategically important to Russia. It used to be that Russia and Britain had their game in Persia and Afghanistan, now it's the USA and Russia in Iran.
3) Iran represents a good potential market for Russian goods, as it is cut off from trade with much of the Western World and is going to be hungry for military equipment (one of Russia's prime exports) in the near future.
4) Russia just plain doesn't have that many friends, especially in it's own neighborhood. Putin is friendly with Belarus and Mongolia, but that's about it. Iran, with its size and population and influence on Middle Eastern affairs through Hezbollah and so on, will make a good partner for Russia in the Middle East.

Although this is a problem for America's relative power in the region, it is probably good for America in the long run, because it blocks Bush from attacking Iran at the last moment and leaving his successor with an unwinnable war, which I wouldn't necessarily put past the asshole in chief.

[Einhander Sn0m4n]

Although this is a problem for America's relative power in the region, it is probably good for America in the long run, because it blocks Bush from attacking Iran at the last moment and leaving his successor with an unwinnable war, which I wouldn't necessarily put past the asshole in chief.

Exactly the thinking behind the thread title, Pablo.

[Sidewinder]

Hopefully, calmer heads will deal with the situation in Iran. I do NOT want to see George W. Bush and his syncophants go, "WW3 ROX!!! Bomb Russia too!!!"

[Superman]

You know something is wrong with American leadership when the Russian president is trying prevent the States from attacking another country. Of course, it's not like he's doing it because he's a nice guy...

Question though, how much of an American attack would involve Israel?

[Kanastrous]

Every time I check in on N&P, I am forced to think about Cheney's penis.

I swear I am going to make somebody pay.

[weemadando]

Would anyone be exceptionally surprised that if on the day before the election Bush & Co. do in fact bomb Iran just to spite everyone else.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

Would anyone be exceptionally surprised that if on the day before the election Bush & Co. do in fact bomb Iran just to spite everyone else.

Well, I wonder if that might give someone the excuse to start impeaching Bush.

[Adrian Laguna]

Would anyone be exceptionally surprised that if on the day before the election Bush & Co. do in fact bomb Iran just to spite everyone else.

I would. Bush and Co. maybe delusional morons, but nothing leads me to believe they are spiteful as well. If they really wanted to bomb Iran, they would have done so already.

[Imperial Overlord]

Would anyone be exceptionally surprised that if on the day before the election Bush & Co. do in fact bomb Iran just to spite everyone else.

I would. Bush and Co. maybe delusional morons, but nothing leads me to believe they are spiteful as well. If they really wanted to bomb Iran, they would have done so already.

Does outing one of your own intelligence agents and effectively ending her career and potentially endandering some of her contacts and fellow agents because she's married to someone who said unpleasant truths not sound spiteful to you (hint: Valerie Plame)?

[Einhander Sn0m4n]

Every time I check in on N&P, I am forced to think about Cheney's penis.

I swear I am going to make somebody pay.

Now you get to see it.

[Adrian Laguna]

Does outing one of your own intelligence agents and effectively ending her career and potentially endandering some of her contacts and fellow agents because she's married to someone who said unpleasant truths not sound spiteful to you (hint: Valerie Plame)?

I stand corrected then. Though I'd still say Bush is not spiteful himself, his underlings could probably talk him into bombing Iran if they wanted to.

Now you get to see it.

I wonder what's he so excited about? Unless he's not, in which case .

[Imperial Overlord]

I stand corrected then. Though I'd still say Bush is not spiteful himself, his underlings could probably talk him into bombing Iran if they wanted to.

I'm not so generous towards the Shrub.

[The Yosemite Bear]

don't worry, he's just thinking about killing and torturing 10 year olds...

[Kanastrous]

Every time I check in on N&P, I am forced to think about Cheney's penis.

I swear I am going to make somebody pay.

Now you get to see it.

Wow. Hung like a donkey.

Either that, or he just crapped his pants, big time and in a forward direction.

[K. A. Pital]

Russia pondered a military counter-intervention in Iraq (it was put on the proposal for the Duma), so I guess there's nothing out of ordinary in Putin offering protection to Iran.

Besides, I don't think Russia will risk escalating to WWIII, but if the US invades Iran, await a proxy war in which Russia will eagerly sell arms to Iran insurgents.

[loomer]

Safe to say it's not just posturing because of a small something then, I guess.

I'm gonna go wash my eyes with bleach now.

[Chris OFarrell]

Russia pondered a military counter-intervention in Iraq (it was put on the proposal for the Duma), so I guess there's nothing out of ordinary in Putin offering protection to Iran.

What possible reason could Russia have to want to get bogged down in Iraq when the US went in???? Except for dick waving...

[Nathaniel]

What the hell is Putin trying to do internationally? Assassinating journalists, escalating nuclear tensions, intimidating Eastern Europe and supporting Iran[/iis only going to piss off the EU and USA. Russia's certainly not going to win any kind of outright rivalry against them with a population 1/8 their size and an economy that's about 6% of theirs combined. Cold war II is going to be pretty crap as it stands right now.

[Pelranius]

If Russia does come to the aid of Iran, it's probably a safe bet that China will jump on board. Standing alone in a world against Regent Cheney and his cabal when Russia has been removed from the equation isn't going to be ideal for Beijing.

[Einhander Sn0m4n]

If Russia does come to the aid of Iran, it's probably a safe bet that China will jump on board. Standing alone in a world against Regent Cheney and his cabal when Russia has been removed from the equation isn't going to be ideal for Beijing.

Or the millions of young male potential cannon fodder conscripts that will doubtless die as a result.

[Pelranius]

If Russia does come to the aid of Iran, it's probably a safe bet that China will jump on board. Standing alone in a world against Regent Cheney and his cabal when Russia has been removed from the equation isn't going to be ideal for Beijing.

Or the millions of young male potential cannon fodder conscripts that will doubtless die as a result.

Well, even adding China to the equation might not tilt the war in favor of Moscow and Tehran (unless they're planning to use the Chinese armored divisions to invade continental Europe), but China might complicate American plans enough that Dubya might give the Russians a peace they can live with. Or not. No one's everyone accused Junior of rational thinking.