Kosovo: Ready to implode again?

[Dartzap]

Beeb

No agreement in Kosovo discussion
Serbian and Kosovo Albanian leaders have failed to reach agreement at talks aimed at settling the status of the UN-administered province.

The Kosovo Albanian delegation included former guerrilla Hashim Thaci, who claimed victory in polls last weekend boycotted by Kosovo's Serb minority.

He has said Kosovo could declare independence if talks fail to yield a deal by 10 December - the UN deadline.

Serbs oppose this and the EU has warned Mr Thaci against unilateral action.

Kosovo is nominally part of Serbia but has been administered by the UN since 1999, when a Nato assault drove out Serb security forces accused of repressing the Albanian majority.

Kosovo's Albanians have been campaigning for independence - but the province's minority Serbs and the government in Belgrade oppose this.

International efforts to reach a deal have so far failed, with Moscow lending its weight to Serbia's stance at the UN Security Council.

'Hong Kong model'

Tuesday's meeting in Brussels was mediated by a "troika" of envoys - representatives of the EU, US and Russia.

The envoys said a further round of last-ditch discussions was scheduled to take place later this month in Vienna.

European leaders have warned Kosovo's Albanians against declaring independence without securing broader international support.

"Kosovo should have her independence [but] it shouldn't be an unmanaged, unilateral declaration - it should be one that is co-ordinated with the international community," the UK's Europe minister, Jim Murphy, said on Monday.

Mr Murphy said "well above 20" EU member states backed independence for the breakaway province but that they had not "got to 27 yet".

Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt said a "soft landing" rather than a "big bang" was required in order to maintain stability in the region.

At least five European countries, including Greece and Romania, fear independence for Kosovo would encourage separatist trends in the Balkans and elsewhere in Europe.

Parliamentary elections on Saturday gave Mr Thaci's Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) just over a third of the vote, according to nearly complete results.

They said the rival Democratic League of Kosovo (LKD), which had dominated Kosovo politics in recent years, trailed in second place with 22%.

"We will declare independence immediately after 10 December," Mr Thaci told cheering supporters as results came in.

According to election officials, the turnout for the was around 45%, the lowest since 1999.

The Serbian government had called on ethnic Serbs not to vote so as to avoid giving the new government legitimacy.

It would seem that a few folks are getting abit worried about what might happen come the the tenth of December - the UN just moved up a few thousand troops to the border between Serbia/Kosovo just in case.

[Sidewinder]

'Hong Kong model'

Not a good analogy-- the people of Hong Kong and the people of Communist China did NOT recently perform ethnic cleansings against each other. Besides, I seriously doubt the Albanians will tolerate being governed by the people who performed the ethnic cleansings, and with good reason.

The Serbian government had called on ethnic Serbs not to vote so as to avoid giving the new government legitimacy.

The Serbian government can do jack about Kosovo's new government, unless the Russians decide to send an army-- a literal army, supported by artillery, fighter-bombers, and Special Forces-- into Kosovo. It'll be better for the Serbs living in Kosovo to vote, so at least there opinions will be heard, even if the Albanians ignore them.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

'Hong Kong model'

Not a good analogy-- the people of Hong Kong and the people of Communist China did NOT recently perform ethnic cleansings against each other. Besides, I seriously doubt the Albanians will tolerate being governed by the people who performed the ethnic cleansings, and with good reason.

The Serbian government had called on ethnic Serbs not to vote so as to avoid giving the new government legitimacy.

The Serbian government can do jack about Kosovo's new government, unless the Russians decide to send an army-- a literal army, supported by artillery, fighter-bombers, and Special Forces-- into Kosovo. It'll be better for the Serbs living in Kosovo to vote, so at least there opinions will be heard, even if the Albanians ignore them.

Actually, the Albanians are quite guilty of cleansings as well. I'm sure Stas and Vympel can elaborate, and eventually Starkiller will come stumbling in.

[Netko]

Yup, as with every dirty little bloodletting in the region, all sides got some blood splattered on them in illegal ways. Its just a matter of degree (and again, possibly showing my biases, I'm pointing out that the Serb factions account for a, at the very least, plurality if not majority of said illegal bloodletting, also being responsible for the only internationally recognized genocide of the nineties Balkan Wars - Srebrenica).

However (to not turn this thread into yet another history discussion of Kosovo), there is very little chance of it coming to that in this case, with the big exception of possible paramilitaries ("King Lazar's Guard" on the Serbian side and Albanian counter-groups currently basing and causing troubles in Albanian-dominated areas of Macedonia). All the major Serb parties know they're losing Kosovo, they just can't admit it in public discourse - its one of the main reasons that the Radicals, who hold a plurality of seats in parliament, are avoiding the hot seat (government) - they don't want to be the ones being in it when Kosovo secedes. On the other hand, the ruling coalition, formed by so-called democratic pro-European parties (so-called because only some of them can claim that with a straight face - not including PM Koštunica's one) has been making ever louder nationalistic noises in the past year in an effort to keep what little support each of the parties has individually and have as such essentially withdrawn from NATO joining talks for the time being. Despite their increasing nationalistic flair, they are always careful to point out that, in the case of Kosovo separating (as publicly unimaginable as that is), they wouldn't dream of any sort of military action. Hell, in comments to a Croatian politics show, the Serbian government representative, asked what actions would Serbia take towards countries that recognize Kosovo's independence meekly replied that "they would be very disappointed in those countries", which was generally interpreted that they would put up a show for domestic consumption without doing any real actions that change the status quo (not even economic and political sanctions).

As far as Kosovo goes, as the article states, if they do declare independence, something that is getting more and more support abroad do to the utter lack of progress in the talks, they can count on the majority of European governments supporting said independence (and, importantly, that probably includes most of their Balkan neighbors, especially the western ones which is important for trade and travel links, with the obvious exception of Serbia and Greece), along with the US and other major western governments, which should be sufficient support for them to be able to claim international recognition de facto and which is also usually conductive to worldwide de jure recognition in due time, especially since they aren't separating from a major power (unlike, say, Taiwan).

All in all, while this does represent the best chance in Europe for another war at this point in time, the chance of that is minimal. On the other hand, Kosovo's unilateral independence and gradual recognition seems more and more likely with each unproductive day of talks.

[K. A. Pital]

As far as Kosovo goes, as the article states, if they do declare independence, something that is getting more and more support abroad do to the utter lack of progress in the talks, they can count on the majority of European governments supporting said independence

Russia will not send an Army and of course Kosovo will at some point break loose.

But it's clear that PMR, South Ossetia and Abkhazia will start on the course for breakaway immediately as soon as the Kosovo precedent will be set.

The Serbs in Kosovo are fucked the most right now; I guess all the government can do is prepare for another wave of refugees out of Kosovo.

[MKSheppard]

Huzzah for the glorious motor rifle divisions of the Russian Army!

[MKSheppard]

Huzzah for the glorious motor rifle divisions of the Russian Army!

Damn, I read Stas' point as "Russia will send an Army"

[K. A. Pital]

"Russia will send an Army"

RUSSIA, FUCK YEAH!