Tony Blair and the chance to be EU President

[Dartzap]

BBC Blog

Tony Blair and the race for the presidency

* Mark Mardell
* 6 Feb 08, 10:17 PM

I’m told Tony Blair and Gordon Brown have discussed the possibility of Mr Blair becoming President.

That’s President of the Council, the new top European job created by the Lisbon Treaty.

Some want to find a high profile president to represent the European Union on the world stage at events such as the G8, the Bali summit and for meeting heads of state.

Gordon Brown is willing to give his backing but is waiting for a nod from Mr Blair.

Mr Blair has also recently discussed his job prospects with the President of the European Commission, Jose Manuel Barroso.

Every time the job comes up, so do the same old names. The problem is obvious: few European politicians have the charisma and international recognition to carry off being Mr or Mrs Europe.

Certainly, the other main man in the frame, Luxembourg’s veteran Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, doesn’t really fit the bill.

But Downing Street feels that Mr Blair needs to get a move on if he is to clinch the job, which needs the support, or at least the acquiescence, of the leaders of all 27 European Union countries.

The role of president of the Council would start on 1 January 2009.

French backing

Mr Blair already has the firm backing of French President Nicolas Sarkozy and his team says that there is no campaign and no campaign team.

The truth is Mr Blair is interested, but cautious. He only wants the job on his terms if the president is really going to be a strong presence on the world stage.

He wants to be sure that he is the one who shakes the hand of the new president of the United States, and doesn’t have the new high representative or the president of the European Commission jostling to do it themselves.

Downing Street insiders feel Mr Blair needs to make up his mind quite quickly so they can start throwing their weight behind his campaign.

You might question whether Gordon Brown would really welcome Tony Blair as a prince across the water, but the impression I get is that, if Mr Blair wants it, they would have to support him,.

No hurry

Mr Blair feels that while it’s flattering to be considered, there is no hurry: indeed it’s too early in the process to make a decision. He wants to wait and see how the job is fleshed out as meat is put on the bones of the Lisbon Treaty.

The trouble is that nothing of importance will be decided until after the Irish referendum, on a date yet to be announced, for fear of frightening the voters with potentially controversial decisions.

How much urgency is there? Nicolas Sarkozy would like all this settled at the beginning of the French presidency, in July.

Most regard this as unrealistic, and think that the decision will be taken around the time of the October summit.

But Europe’s leaders and their representatives in Brussels are staring hard at the old problem of the chicken and the egg.

Do you choose the person you want for the job, and then write the job specification to fit them or do you decide what you want the role to be, and then look for the best candidate?

The person will of course represent the European Union, and they will of course have to do the work that the presidency of the Council does now: arranging agendas, chasing decisions, knocking heads together.

It is a sliding scale. But too much of the latter and Mr Blair won’t want it.

'Stop Blair' campaign

And there are formidable problems. Some will oppose him because of his enthusiasm for the Iraq war. Indeed there is already a website aimed at stopping him on these grounds.

Some will consider that he represents a country that has opted out of the euro, a common police and justice policy, a common immigration policy and will never be serious about Europe.

The smaller countries think the big countries already have too many people at the top.

Britain has twice wielded the veto over big jobs and some would like to return the compliment. And so on. But perhaps the biggest hurdle is that old Brussels saw “front-runners never win”.

The smart money of some Brussels insiders is now going on Germany’s leader Angela Merkel.

She faces an election next year and could lose. Her party might rather go into elections with a new leader. She is the one figure from a big country that smaller countries perhaps wouldn’t mind.

Brought up in East Germany, she symbolises the reunification of Europe. She may not gush charisma but she is well respected and well known in the wider world.

And I have just heard of one other possible candidate, Barroso himself. There’s just a possibility he might give up being President of the Commission if he thought being President of the Council was the bigger, better job and within his grasp.

So a lot to play for between now and the autumn.

Given that “front-runners never win”, Blair is being canny in keeping his head down as much as possible.

But he also knows that even if the decision isn’t taken until the autumn, nine months is an awfully short time in international politics.

Who should I feel sorry for? Gordon Brown or Europe as a whole?

[Androsphinx]

William Hague was on spectacular form a few weeks ago on this: Sky

[wjs7744]

He wants to be sure that he is the one who shakes the hand of the new president of the United States, and doesn’t have the new high representative or the president of the European Commission jostling to do it themselves.

That was probably not a good thing to say, considering.

I also find it kind of amusing that they refer to us as being one of the biggest countries in Europe. I know what they mean, we are important and all (or else they wouldnt be considering Blair), but to use that particular word strikes me as most amusing.

[Zac Naloen]

In terms of population we are one of the biggest countries... just not in land mass.

[tim31]

I suppose with only Russia, Germany and France ahead of the United Kingdom, you could call yourselves 'one of the biggest'.

[Crown]

William Hague was on spectacular form a few weeks ago on this: Sky

That was fucking gold!

[Thanas]

So, Merkel or Blair?

What outstanding options.

[Dartzap]

So, Merkel or Blair?

What outstanding options.

And some random fellow from Luxembourg!

[Thanas]

Yeah, but why isn't Juncker mentioned in the article?

[Thanas]

Ghetto edit: Frell, I can't read.

That said, I support Juncker.

[wjs7744]

I don't follow European politics, but who is Merkel?

Actually more to the point, who is Merkel that they are so bad that a viable alternative is a man widely regarded by his own people as George's bitch?

Yes, I know, you are all in awe of my diplomatic tact. Be thankful I'm not going into politics.

[Androsphinx]

I don't follow European politics, but who is Merkel?

Actually more to the point, who is Merkel that they are so bad that a viable alternative is a man widely regarded by his own people as George's bitch?

Yes, I know, you are all in awe of my diplomatic tact. Be thankful I'm not going into politics.

The Chancellor of Germany, and probably the most powerful woman in the world.

[Thanas]

You live in Britain and managed to escape the fact that Germany got a new chancellor? Her homepage

Merkel is not that bad as a politician, but unwilling to lead. She is more a backroom dealer than a leader, and I think Europe needs a charismatic speaker nowadays.

[Thanas]

Ghetto Edit: My reply is directed at you, wjs7744.

Also, why don't you follow European politics? A bad decision, methinks.

[Dartzap]

I don't follow European politics, but who is Merkel?

Actually more to the point, who is Merkel that they are so bad that a viable alternative is a man widely regarded by his own people as George's bitch?

Yes, I know, you are all in awe of my diplomatic tact. Be thankful I'm not going into politics.

Angela Merkal is the current Chancellor of Germany

[wjs7744]

I don't follow European politics, but who is Merkel?

Actually more to the point, who is Merkel that they are so bad that a viable alternative is a man widely regarded by his own people as George's bitch?

Yes, I know, you are all in awe of my diplomatic tact. Be thankful I'm not going into politics.

The Chancellor of Germany, and probably the most powerful woman in the world.

OK, I really put my foot in it there, didn't I? Now I really know I'm right not going into politics. Maybe I should just stay out of N&P in future.

[Dartzap]

Ghetto Edit: My reply is directed at you, wjs7744.

Also, why don't you follow European politics? A bad decision, methinks.

Your kidding, right? Most people barely follow our own politics! Apathy is a bitch, don't ye' know?

[Thanas]

Ghetto Edit: My reply is directed at you, wjs7744.

Also, why don't you follow European politics? A bad decision, methinks.

Your kidding, right? Most people barely follow our own politics! Apathy is a bitch, don't ye' know?

Then those people are idiots, especially considering the importance of the EU.

[Dartzap]

Ghetto Edit: My reply is directed at you, wjs7744.

Also, why don't you follow European politics? A bad decision, methinks.

Your kidding, right? Most people barely follow our own politics! Apathy is a bitch, don't ye' know?

Then those people are idiots, especially considering the importance of the EU.

*shrugs* Its a running trait in Britain. Blame the politicians for being bastards, would be my advice.

[Thanas]

Find me a country where the politicians are not bastards. That is a pretty flimsy excuse for not following the process that decides about the state of your nation.

[Dartzap]

Find me a country where the politicians are not bastards. That is a pretty flimsy excuse for not following the process that decides about the state of your nation.

I repeat: They don't follow our own politics. Many people in my age group would probably be hard pushed to name who the Prime Minister is currently, yes it is stupid, unwise and ignorant. You have to remember that the majority of British people are clinically stupid (Nine million people reading the Sun support this argument)

They are not as obvious about it as other nations.

[Thanas]

I have to admit my perception of the British has been wrong then, since every Brit I have ever met was as cultured or educated as my friends/colleagues.

But I probably have only come in contact with the better educated part...never would have thought that there was such a trend of unintellectualism in Britain.

[Androsphinx]

I have to admit my perception of the British has been wrong then, since every Brit I have ever met was as cultured or educated as my friends/colleagues.

But I probably have only come in contact with the better educated part...never would have thought that there was such a trend of unintellectualism in Britain.

These are the same people, a quarter of whom thought that Winston Churchill never existed.

More seriously, sometime in the early-1990s competition between the parties stopped being about ideology-driven politics and "core issues" (as they call them in the States), and became about who was more competent to run the economy and public services. It makes for boring politics, low turnout and a quiet life. "Gut" issues like Europe and the Iraq war still get people involved, but everyday politics leaves them cold because the parties are more or less identical.

[Zac Naloen]

I suppose with only Russia, Germany and France ahead of the United Kingdom, you could call yourselves 'one of the biggest'.

Wikipedia has it as just Germany ahead of us in terms of population (Russia isn't part of the EU )

I have to admit my perception of the British has been wrong then, since every Brit I have ever met was as cultured or educated as my friends/colleagues.

But I probably have only come in contact with the better educated part...never would have thought that there was such a trend of unintellectualism in Britain.

For every intellectualist there are four who would prefer to get wasted whilst pregnant.
Anti-intellectualism is rife in the UK and there is a horrid amount of distrust of anyone who is seen as being smart.

I had friends at Uni who wouldn't watch QI (funniest programme on TV) because it was "Smart person TV". Ironically that evening they were simulating sex with Toy animals on it for laughs... yep, real smart Tv![/quote]

[Uraniun235]

The EU is considering one of Bush's biggest cocksuckers to be it's president?

Why?!