Clinton Considering "Nuclear Option" to Overtake O

[Lord MJ]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/0 ... 00051.html

Hillary Clinton's campaign has a secret weapon to build its delegate count, but her top strategists say privately that any attempt to deploy it would require a sharp (and by no means inevitable) shift in the political climate within Democratic circles by the end of this month.

With at least 50 percent of the Democratic Party's 30-member Rules and Bylaws Committee committed to Clinton, her backers could -- when the committee meets at the end of this month -- try to ram through a decision to seat the disputed 210-member Florida and 156-member Michigan delegations. Such a decision would give Clinton an estimated 55 or more delegates than Obama, according to Clinton campaign operatives. The Obama campaign has declined to give an estimate.

Using the Rules and Bylaws Committee to force the seating of two pro-Hillary delegations would provoke a massive outcry from Obama forces. Such a strategy would, additionally, face at least two other major hurdles, and could only be attempted, according to sources in the Clinton camp, under specific circumstances:

First, this coming Tuesday, Clinton would have to win Indiana and lose North Carolina by a very small margin - or better yet, win the Tar Heel state. She would also have to demonstrate continued strength in the contests before May 31.

Second, and equally important, her argument that she is a better general election candidate than Obama -- that he has major weaknesses which have only been recently revealed -- would have to rapidly gain traction, not only within the media, where she has experienced some success, but within the broad activist ranks of the Democratic Party.

Under that optimistic scenario, some Clinton operatives believe she could overcome several massive stumbling blocks:

-- Clinton loyalists on the Rules Committee would have to be persuaded to put their political futures on the line by defying major party constituencies, especially black leaders backing Barack Obama. Committee members are unlikely to take such a step unless they are convinced that Clinton has a strong chance of winning the nomination.

Former DNC and South Carolina Democratic Party chair Donald Fowler -- a Hillary loyalist -- would, for example, face an outpouring of anger from South Carolina Democrats if he were to go along with such a strategy.

-- A controversial decision to seat the two delegations, as currently constituted, would be appealed by the Obama campaign to the Democratic National Convention's Credentials Committee.

The full make-up of the Credentials Committee will not be determined until all the primaries are completed, but the pattern of Clinton and Obama victories so far clearly suggests that Obama delegates on that committee will outnumber Clinton delegates. Obama will not, however, have a majority, according to most estimates, and the balance of power will be held by delegates appointed by DNC chair Howard Dean.

For the scenario to work, then, Dean would have to be convinced of Clinton's superior viability in the general election, and that she has a strong chance of defeating McCain next November.

One of the arguments the Clinton campaign is privately making to autonomous "super" or "automatic" delegates, as well as to delegates technically "pledged" to Obama as a result of primary and caucus results, is that the campaign shifted dramatically in roughly mid-February. At that point, Clinton supporters contend, the economy replaced Iraq as the dominant issue among primary voters, and that transition led to Clinton's successes in Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania.

Clinton people also make the case that the past six weeks have seen examples of Obama's political vulnerabilities: his wife's "proud to be an American" remarks, the emergence of the Rev. Jeremiah Wright controversy, wider coverage of Obama's ties to 1960s radicals Bill Ayers and Bernadine Dohrn, "bittergate," the flag pin imbroglio, and "hand on the heart" accusations -- all impugning Obama's patriotism.
* * *

The controversy over Michigan and Florida grows out of the decision of both states to flout national party rules prohibiting all but a few states -- Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina -- from holding primaries or caucuses before February 5, 2008. Michigan held its primary on January 15 and Florida on January 29.

On December 1, 2007, well before the contests were held, the Rules and Bylaws Committee voted to refuse to seat either state's delegation at the August 2008 convention in Denver.

When the contests were actually held, none of the candidates actively campaigned in either state. In Michigan, Obama had his name taken off the ballot. Clinton "won" both contests.

The Obama campaign contends that the primaries in the two states were not legitimate, especially in Michigan where voters could not cast a ballot for Obama. Clinton "won" the Michigan contest with 55 percent, while 40 percent voted "uncommitted" and the remainder went to minor candidates.

Obama manager David Plouffe has argued that the only way to seat the Michigan delegation would be to divide the delegates evenly between Clinton and Obama: "A 50-50 split would be fair."

Many Democrats, including DNC chair Howard Dean, believe it is critically important to reach some kind of compromise to seat the Michigan and Florida delegations in order not to alienate voters in the two battleground states, each of which could be pivotal in the November general election.

In the case of Florida, there are a number of proposals under consideration. One would be to seat the delegation as is, but give each delegate only one half a vote. Another would be to cut the number of Florida delegates in half.

Spokesmen for the Obama campaign declined to discuss their strategies for dealing with the May 31 Rules and Bylaws Committee meeting, or to speculate on what they think the Clinton forces with try to do.

[Patrick Degan]

She is actually willing to risk tearing the Democratic party apart just so she gets to be the one to lose to The Gimp in November.

[Durandal]

That's not a nuclear option. That's scorched earth.

[Sidewinder]

I was afraid the story was about Hillary Clinton advocating something like "Nuke North Korea!" to make her more appealing to right-wing warmongers. I'm relieved it isn't, but...

She is actually willing to risk tearing the Democratic party apart just so she gets to be the one to lose to The Gimp in November.

I'm reminded of what happened when Teddy Roosevelt ran against Taft, splitting the Republican vote and resulting in Wilson winning the election. If Hillary's actions result in McCain winning... Well, Hillary herself is a warmonger (remember when she threatened to totally obliterate Iran?), so it's hard to say what'll be worse.

[Tsyroc]

The good news is that if she does that I doubt she'll ever be President of the US. I wouldn't vote for this time and the Democratic party is likely to be majorly FUBAR by 2012.

[Strider]

This is another reason why McCain is (sadly) better than Hillary. At least he's just evil, not BLOODY APESHIT INSANE.

[The Duchess of Zeon]

I think it's now a certainty that Hillary will get the nomination, to be blunt. The Wright thing has hurt Obama enough among racists--and a lot of blue collar democrats are racists, unfortunately--that she can pick up enough votes to look viable. And then she won't "maybe" do this at the convention--she will. This isn't about democracy to her, and never was. This is 19th century politicking at its finest, where of course the Presidential candidate will be selected in backroom manoeuvring during the convention. This is of course no longer the 19th century, so it will probably spark massive riots, but she doesn't care about that. The Clintons are simply better at grabbing a cigar, diving into the press of high-end political mucks, and lying through their teeth with promises of gold-paved streets in their constituencies and favours galore to bring them around their way in such a thing as this convention.

And if Hillary gets Michigan and Florida seated, she wins, because doing so will require firming up the uncommitted superdelegates anyway.

[Coyote]

The Clinton camp is counting on "closet racists" using the Wright "scandal" as a good excuse to avoid Obama without having to admit that it's because he's... Black.

[Illuminatus Primus]

Well, a silver lining to Marina's model is when she loses to McCain and the resulting economic, foriegn policy, and energy crises mount, hopefully both the DLC Clinton scum and mainstream Republicans will be completely discredited. Of course, if I'm reading her correctly, by then it might be bad enough and the backlash so severe than when the reformist left comes to power, it no longer wares the smile and sincerity and espouses the warm and inclusive rhetoric of Obama, but is radical and angry.

I hate to sound messianic, but I just feel like the margins of a bad versus good turn for America as so narrow this time; we're so close to the split in the road, that I think its extremely important that Obama wins.

[CmdrWilkens]

I can say right now that if it comes to Clinton loyalistsin the Rules and Bylaws committe trying to overtunr the previous decision that Dean will have already stacked the Credentials committee in such a way as to prevent that. Above all else he doesn't want riots or a "stolen" primary. He is going to see who is in the lead for delegates and votes (not counting Michigan and Florida) and make his mind up on how to run the convention to ensure that it swings to whomever is in the lead. The more I hear him, Pelosi, hell even Carter talking about "the delegate count is all that matters" the more I am betting that Clinton only has a shot if she suddenly overtakes Obama in pledged delegates because Dean has enough power at the convention to prevent any 'Nuclear" option from suceeding. He can read the polling jsut as well as anyone else and he knows that Clinton is Kerry states + Florida for a win and Obama is Kerry states plus the mountain west and upper south for a win, he can see how much easier the later course is and how much less it depends on playing defense in wisconisn, michigan, and pennsylvannia.

[Fleet Admiral JD]

If this happens, fuck what party she's from. I'd vote for McCain regardless of anything else, just based on principle. Christ, she bitched about Bush stealing the '00 election.

[Invictus ChiKen]

This is why I switched to Green Party.

Hopefully the Dems will find a spin and stop this if not my faith in the system is gone.

[Mlenk]

Right now, I am so sick of hearing anything about Obama OR Clinton. As someone said in another thread, the election cycle here in America goes on for too damn long, and I am definitely suffering from voter fatigue.

[Patrick Degan]

If this happens, fuck what party she's from. I'd vote for McCain regardless of anything else, just based on principle. Christ, she bitched about Bush stealing the '00 election.

Amusing, the idea that voting for somebody who promises another 4-8 years of Republikan misrule could be considered an act of "principle".

[CaptainChewbacca]

If it happens and Hillary gets the nom, what're the chances of Obama picking a moderate or liberal republican as a running-mate and doing a unity ticket? THAT is a nuclear option.

[Qwerty 42]

That is suicide. Obama knows better than to hand the election to McCain.

[LMSx]

I think it's now a certainty that Hillary will get the nomination, to be blunt. The Wright thing has hurt Obama enough among racists--and a lot of blue collar democrats are racists, unfortunately--that she can pick up enough votes to look viable. And then she won't "maybe" do this at the convention--she will. This isn't about democracy to her, and never was. This is 19th century politicking at its finest, where of course the Presidential candidate will be selected in backroom manoeuvring during the convention. This is of course no longer the 19th century, so it will probably spark massive riots, but she doesn't care about that. The Clintons are simply better at grabbing a cigar, diving into the press of high-end political mucks, and lying through their teeth with promises of gold-paved streets in their constituencies and favours galore to bring them around their way in such a thing as this convention.

And if Hillary gets Michigan and Florida seated, she wins, because doing so will require firming up the uncommitted superdelegates anyway.

No. It's not happening, Dean at the very minimum will be the stumbling block. Obama's embraced his 50 state strategy, and spiritually they're closer then Clinton is to Dean. It just isn't happening.

Reverend Wright was a hiccup, not an implosion, and the polling data backs that up: look at the most recent Pollster.com graphs for Clinton v. Obama and Obama v. Clinton, and it shows a recent dip around April but he's already broken even again. Obama has the nomination. It's going to be another painful month until the last primaries end, but I would guess Clinton's trying to make it assured that Obama guarantees a VP slot.

[CmdrWilkens]

No. It's not happening, Dean at the very minimum will be the stumbling block. Obama's embraced his 50 state strategy, and spiritually they're closer then Clinton is to Dean. It just isn't happening.

Reverend Wright was a hiccup, not an implosion, and the polling data backs that up: look at the most recent Pollster.com graphs for Clinton v. Obama and Obama v. Clinton, and it shows a recent dip around April but he's already broken even again. Obama has the nomination. It's going to be another painful month until the last primaries end, but I would guess Clinton's trying to make it assured that Obama guarantees a VP slot.

Ain't happening. I really hate all the "unity" ticket people. Both of them in the political sense cannot stand each other. Clinton hates Obama for usurping her position and Obama hates Clinton for trying to rip down the coalition he is building inside the party. They may be cordial with each other after this is over but having Clinton (or Obama had that been the case) in such a visible campaign role just isn't going to work.There is too much obvious resentment and distrust between them to actually build an effective machine. Certianly they could win, either of them could win on their own but what we NEED is a massive re-alignment style election where the Dems motivate everybody, the Republican base stays at home and democrats triumph up and down the ticket getting an actual working majority in the house and senate (a majority large enough to really stick it to Republican obstructionism and finally kick Joe Lieberman to the curb). That isn't going to happen without a truly monumental campaign effort and Obama can't do that if he has to spend half his time trying to keep Billary happy.

[Adrian Laguna]

Amusing, the idea that voting for somebody who promises another 4-8 years of Republikan misrule could be considered an act of "principle".

Taking the long view, it is. Another Clinton administration would likely be a complete disaster, which means we would be guaranteed another 4-8 years of "Republikan misrule" down the line anyway. We might as well get it over with right now.

[Fingolfin_Noldor]

Maybe what the Republicans need is another 4 years to prove to the rest of America that the Republicans are fucked left right center. Then again, the Democrats' loss might spark a serious bickering that might tear the party asunder.

[Sea Skimmer]

No. It's not happening, Dean at the very minimum will be the stumbling block. Obama's embraced his 50 state strategy, and spiritually they're closer then Clinton is to Dean. It just isn't happening.

You know I saw Howard Dean on The Daily Show not more then a few days ago and he explicated said they were going to ‘find a way’ to seat Michigan and Florida. He also said, and this is a direct quote "You cannot have a Democratic convention without Florida and Michigan."

[Coyote]

If this happens, fuck what party she's from. I'd vote for McCain regardless of anything else, just based on principle. Christ, she bitched about Bush stealing the '00 election.

Amusing, the idea that voting for somebody who promises another 4-8 years of Republikan misrule could be considered an act of "principle".

At that point, I'd be tempted to pick McCain too just to "push it to the breaking point" and make it so bad that change is forced...

[Coyote]

If it happens and Hillary gets the nom, what're the chances of Obama picking a moderate or liberal republican as a running-mate and doing a unity ticket? THAT is a nuclear option.

There would not be a cross-party ticket. A moderate Democrat I could see, but th ething is, Obama really is pretty moderate to begin with. That's part of his appeal. I fear that some Iago type will whisper to him that he needs a leftist demagogue to shore up his base creds with disaffected Hiallaryistas. Oh, wait, Hillaryistas are probably Republicans. Nevermind!

[Coyote]

Ain't happening. I really hate all the "unity" ticket people. Both of them in the political sense cannot stand each other. ... That isn't going to happen without a truly monumental campaign effort and Obama can't do that if he has to spend half his time trying to keep Billary happy.

God, the only thing more fearful than Bill Clinton as a bored First Husband with time to meddle is Bill Clinton as a bored (and very frustrated) Vice-President's Husband with time on his hands, just a stone's throw from power.

[LMSx]

No. It's not happening, Dean at the very minimum will be the stumbling block. Obama's embraced his 50 state strategy, and spiritually they're closer then Clinton is to Dean. It just isn't happening.

You know I saw Howard Dean on The Daily Show not more then a few days ago and he explicated said they were going to ‘find a way’ to seat Michigan and Florida. He also said, and this is a direct quote "You cannot have a Democratic convention without Florida and Michigan."

Thanks for the tip, I haven't seen the Daily Show in a while. I am now sick of the damn Zohan ads on TDS.com though.

Anyways I looked at the interview and while Dean does say that, he also emphasized (and I thought that this was the most significant point) that the process needs to be fair to the campaigns and the other 48 states that did follow the rules. Obama was following the DNC when he dropped his name from what the DNC made a meaningless primary in Michigan. I can't imagine Dean having said the process needs to be fair to the campaigns then turning around and gifting the Clinton campaign free delegates.

In short I don't think "seating Michigan and Florida delegates" directly says in their respective primary proportions, and certainly allows a 50-50 split.