5/6/08 Primaries Results thread

CaptainChewbacca · Post by **CaptainChewbacca** » 2008-05-06 07:40pm

Alright, so the polls are closed in North Carolina and half of Indiana (which, for some reason, has two time zones). They're calling NC for Obama, but Indiana is too close to call.

Looks like the next showdown will be the West Virginia primary.

Haruko · Post by **Haruko** » 2008-05-06 07:44pm

Shouldn't NC be a "big state"? It has well over 100 delegates. I guess it "doesn't count", then?

By the way, it was humorous seeing a Clinton strategist on CNN last night said Indiana is a "big state" and Obama has to win it. He remained silent about North Carolina, which has much more delegates than Indiana. And it seems to me that, by his definition of "big state", Obama has already won several "big states", like Wisconsin. He also talked about how Clinton made this great comeback in the polls leading up to today at Indiana, about how she was done big time but came to take the lead. Wasn't it that Clinton had a big lead but blew it?

Post by **Gandalf** » 2008-05-06 07:44pm

How many more of these primaries are left?

CaptainChewbacca · Post by **CaptainChewbacca** » 2008-05-06 07:46pm

Gandalf wrote:How many more of these primaries are left?

Four, I think. May 13th is West Virginia, May 20th is Oregon/Kentucky, June 1 is Puerto Rico, and June 3rd is Montana/South Dakota.

God help us all.

Ritterin Sophia · Post by **Ritterin Sophia** » 2008-05-06 07:55pm

Yay, my vote matters! If it's any consolation, most people I've talked to seem to be voting Obama.

Jadeite · Post by **Jadeite** » 2008-05-06 08:01pm

I'm a citizen of Indiana, voted Obama.

CmdrWilkens · Post by **CmdrWilkens** » 2008-05-06 08:12pm

Haruko wrote:Shouldn't NC be a "big state"? It has well over 100 delegates. I guess it "doesn't count", then?

Oh its definately a big state. Actually since I'm in the mood lets look at the top half of the states in terms of population:

1) California (Clinton)
2) Texas (Wash, she won primary he won caucus net delegate gain Obama)
3) New York (Clinton)
4) Florida (N/A)
5) Illinois (Obama)
6) Pennsylvannia (Clinton)
7) Ohio (Clinton)
8) Michigan (N/A)
9) Georgia (Obama)
10) North Carolina (Obama, assumed)
11) New Jersey (Clinton)
12) Virginia (Obama)
13) Washington (Obama)
14) Massachucetts (Clinton)
15) Indiana (Likely Clinton)
16) Arizona (Clinton)
17) Tennessee (Clinton)
18) Missouri (Obama)
19) Maryland (Obama)
20) Wisconsin (Obama)
21) Minnesota (Obama)
22) Colorado (Obama)
23) Alabama (Obama)
24) South Carolina (Obama)
25) Louisiana (Obama)

So that would be 13-9 with 2 N/A and 1 split amongst the top 25.

Pablo Sanchez · Post by **Pablo Sanchez** » 2008-05-06 08:27pm

CNN has Clinton up in Indiana, but some of the areas where Obama will be strongest haven't reported in yet, especially around Gary, so we'll see. One story I'm interested in is the effect of GOP voters taking advantage of Indiana's open primary. I'm not sure if I can expect the media to look much into it (in fact I fully expect more horse-race handicapping bullshit), but it's something that I'd like to know more about.

Natorgator · Post by **Natorgator** » 2008-05-06 08:28pm

The networks have called NC for Obama. Looks like had a really big win there; it's going to be double digits.

The score in Indiana is still close, although CBS has called it for Clinton already. If exit polling is accurate, it may be less than five points.

Losonti Tokash · Post by **Losonti Tokash** » 2008-05-06 08:35pm

MSNBC has Obama up in NC by something like 30 points.

Strider · Post by **Strider** » 2008-05-06 08:40pm

CNN is still refusing to call Indiana. From what I can tell, Obama still has about 30k net votes at least to pick up around Indianapolis, which is about half the current margin. Assuming gains in the North are strong enough to cancel out the rest of the countryside trickling in (a big, lazy assumption), that would mean he'd lose by only about 2%. More realistically, I think a 4% loss is certainly feasible.

If Obama just barely loses Indiana and kicks butt in NC, will that be enough to turn the pundit tide against Clinton? I doubt it, but one can hope.

General Zod · Post by **General Zod** » 2008-05-06 08:48pm

Strider wrote: If Obama just barely loses Indiana and kicks butt in NC, will that be enough to turn the pundit tide against Clinton? I doubt it, but one can hope.

I can almost guarantee you that no matter how small the margin of a win is, if Clinton wins Indiana she'll be touting it out as another triumphant victory. Oh, and NC won't matter.

Havok · Post by **Havok** » 2008-05-06 08:59pm

General Zod wrote:
Strider wrote: If Obama just barely loses Indiana and kicks butt in NC, will that be enough to turn the pundit tide against Clinton? I doubt it, but one can hope.
I can almost guarantee you that no matter how small the margin of a win is, if Clinton wins Indiana she'll be touting it out as another triumphant victory. Oh, and NC won't matter.

Agreed. DAMNIT California! You could have ended this all before it began!

Rogue 9 · Post by **Rogue 9** » 2008-05-06 09:20pm

I only just got back from turning in the results for my precinct. It went solidly for Clinton, almost two to one on the votes. I'll be writing a report on the day at the polls for my blog later; I'm too tired right now.

Turnout sucked, but it was a lot better than most primaries in this state.

Jadeite · Post by **Jadeite** » 2008-05-06 09:31pm

Fucking Clinton supporters

TERRE HAUTE, Indiana - Authorities evacuated and searched three Barack Obama campaign offices in Indiana Tuesday in response to a bomb threat made while people voted in the state's primary.

The bomb threats were made in a call to a Terre Haute television station. Lewis Robinson of the Secret Service's Indianapolis office said the caller made threats against Obama offices in Terre Haute, Vincennes and Evansville.

Obama spokesman Kevin Griffis said workers left the offices and continued working by making cell phone calls.

The reports mirror the circumstances of Obama's office in Vincennes being vandalized early Monday morning. In that incident, a male caller also reported the vandalism to a station in Terre Haute.

MSNBC is reporting only a 4% lead by Clinton here. Rogue, are you in Indiana as well?

Rogue 9 · Post by **Rogue 9** » 2008-05-06 09:36pm

Yeah, I was tapped to be a precinct inspector at the last minute.

Post by **Broomstick** » 2008-05-06 09:46pm

CaptainChewbacca wrote:Alright, so the polls are closed in North Carolina and half of Indiana (which, for some reason, has two time zones).

Arguably, we have 5 time zones, not two, but it looks like --- oh bother. Nevermind. It's a weird place.

Gary and Indianapolis are still reporting in, last I heard. It's close at this point.

Post by **Broomstick** » 2008-05-06 09:49pm

Pablo Sanchez wrote:CNN has Clinton up in Indiana, but some of the areas where Obama will be strongest haven't reported in yet, especially around Gary, so we'll see. One story I'm interested in is the effect of GOP voters taking advantage of Indiana's open primary. I'm not sure if I can expect the media to look much into it (in fact I fully expect more horse-race handicapping bullshit), but it's something that I'd like to know more about.

Party members have been crossing over in the Indiana open primaries for decades, so for us it's nothing new. There's absolutely nothing that says that, for example, a registered Republican can't vote for the Democrats in the primary. It's legal according to the rules.

There are certainly many rumors around here about Republicans crossing over this year to give one or the other Democrat and advantage, to allow their candidate a defeatable enemy in the fall.

Jadeite · Post by **Jadeite** » 2008-05-06 09:50pm

Rogue 9 wrote:Yeah, I was tapped to be a precinct inspector at the last minute.

Ah. I'm in Hendricks. I have a friend from high school (Tom Pappas) running for the Democratic nomination for district statehouse representative. Last time I heard an update, he was losing with only 34% of the vote. Hopefully he can still pull out a win, since only 12% of the county has reported so far, but I doubt it.

Jaepheth · Post by **Jaepheth** » 2008-05-06 09:52pm

CNN says North Carolina is split 56%-42% Obama and Indiana is 52%-48% Clinton

As it stands, Obama will get 42 (31 NC, 11 IN) delegates, Clinton will get 35 (20 NC, 15 IN)

Adrian Laguna · Post by **Adrian Laguna** » 2008-05-06 09:55pm

It seems that if Obama could still win Indiana, if Gary and Indianapolis favor him heavily, and he does alright in the remaining precincts. I doubt he would, but if Clinton wins, it likely will be by a narrow margin.

Strider · Post by **Strider** » 2008-05-06 10:19pm

Neglecting Lake County, with 0% returns right now, it appears at the end of the day Clinton will be up by 30k-40k votes. However Lake is both near Chicago and very densely populated (for Indiana...) with a little more than half The population of Madison. Obama won Madison by ~60k votes, so assuming a good turnout in Lake County, Obama still has a shot at winning, and looks to at least end up VERY close.

Strider · Post by **Strider** » 2008-05-06 10:21pm

Ghetto edit: Marion County, where Indianapolis is, not Madison county...

Davis 51 · Post by **Davis 51** » 2008-05-06 10:26pm

Obama's only down in Indiana by 4%. Obama's winning by lots in North Carolina.

Tonight is a good night!

The Vortex Empire · Post by **The Vortex Empire** » 2008-05-06 10:28pm

The only thing that can make this better is if Obama takes the lead in Indiana.

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