Obama has over 50% of pledged delegates

Qwerty 42 · Post by **Qwerty 42** » 2008-05-19 09:30pm

AP wrote:Obama to reach delegate milestone Tuesday
Monday, May 19, 2008 6:29 PM EDT
The Associated Press
By STEPHEN OHLEMACHER Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) — Barack Obama will reach a significant milestone Tuesday as he marches toward the Democratic nomination for president — a majority of pledged delegates at stake in all the primaries and caucuses.

Obama will still be short of the overall number of delegates needed to clinch the nomination, unless he were to suddenly receive an avalanche of endorsements from the party and elected officials known as superdelegates. But the Illinois senator's campaign is touting the delegate milestone as a big step in defeating his rival, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York.

"A clear majority of elected delegates will send an unmistakable message — the people have spoken, and they are ready for change," Obama campaign manager David Plouffe wrote in a memo to supporters Monday.

"As we near victory in one contest, the next challenge is already heating up," Plouffe wrote. "President Bush and Senator McCain have begun coordinating their attacks on Barack Obama in an effort to extend their failed policies for a third term."

Obama picked up the endorsement of Sen. Robert Byrd of West Virginia Monday, less than a week after Clinton overwhelmingly won the state's primary. Byrd is the longest serving member of the U.S. Senate.

Obama has led in pledged delegates since he won the first caucuses in Iowa on Jan. 3. The two candidates stayed close through Super Tuesday, when Democrats voted in 22 states and American Samoa. Obama won 13 more delegates than Clinton that day — out of nearly 1,700 at stake.

Obama built an imposing lead the following two weeks, winning 11 straight contests in states such as Louisiana, Maryland, Washington and Virginia. He led by 161 pledged delegates on Feb. 19, after victories in Wisconsin and Hawaii. The lead has been relatively unchanged ever since as the candidates spent the past three months trading victories.

Obama goes into Tuesday's contests with 1,610.5 pledged delegates won in primaries and caucuses. He needs 17 more to reach a majority of the 3,253 pledged delegates available. Clinton has 1,443.5 pledged delegates, according to the latest tally by The Associated Press.

Clinton's campaign played down the significance of the milestone, accusing Obama of declaring victory without reaching the required number of overall delegates.

"Premature victory laps and false declarations of victory are unwarranted. Declaring 'mission accomplished' does not make it so," Howard Wolfson, Clinton's communications director, said in a memo to supporters.

Obama has a total of 1,915 delegates overall, including endorsements from superdelegates. Clinton has 1,721, according to the latest AP count.

Obama is a little more than 100 delegates short of the 2,026 needed to clinch the nomination. He cannot make up that ground in the Kentucky and Oregon primaries because of the proportional way in which Democrats award delegates. The two states have a total of 103 delegates at stake Tuesday.

But winning a majority of pledged delegates could help his case with undecided superdelegates, who are free to support whomever they choose at the party's national convention in August. Obama argues that superdelegates should support the candidate who wins the most delegates in the primaries and caucuses. Otherwise, he says, they would be overturning the will of the voters.

Obama, who overtook Clinton in superdelegate endorsements a little more than a week ago, picked up six more Monday. Clinton added none.

Clinton argues that superdelegates should exercise independent judgment.

Her campaign is also trying to change the math by getting the delegates seated from the Michigan and Florida primaries. Clinton won both primaries, but the states had been stripped of their delegates for violating party rules by holding their primaries before Feb. 5.

The Democratic National Committee's rules panel is scheduled to address the issue May 31. If any of the delegates are reinstated, it would increase the number needed to clinch the nomination.

I would link, but unfortunately it's a membership-only page.

Qwerty 42 · Post by **Qwerty 42** » 2008-05-19 09:33pm

It would appear that my topic title is inaccurate: he needs 17 more to break 50%, however inevitable that may be.

Patrick Degan · Post by **Patrick Degan** » 2008-05-19 11:25pm

Clinton argues that superdelegates should exercise independent judgment.

Oh, but they are. That's the problem —for her.

CmdrWilkens · Post by **CmdrWilkens** » 2008-05-20 09:02am

Thankfully by the end of the day we should finally stop hearing from the alst half dozen pundits who think she has a chance (and they are out there). I know she could play dirty tricks to get the nomination but she wouldn't sconsider career suicide like that because the rest of the party, if she divides and fucks them over, will make sure to bury her when she runs for Senate re-election in 2010 (after splitting the party bad enough to lose this year). I hope that she is smart enough to realize that the narrative and the math are against her and you have to call it quits sooner or later. Still the fact that she keeps pumping money into her campaign like a gambler trying to double down to get back to even doesn't give me much hope.

Psychic_Sandwich · Post by **Psychic_Sandwich** » 2008-05-20 09:27am

This is meaningless. The superdelegates will assure her victory!

On a serious note, what are the chances of Obama getting enough supers on his side before the convention to grant him the win?

Post by **LadyTevar** » 2008-05-20 10:03am

Senator Robert C. Byrd (D-WV) just endorsed Obama.

Some people might not think much of that, but you have to understand Sen. Byrd's position in the insular, incestuous Beltway Politics.

1. Byrd is the Most Senior Senator. Oldest serving, longest Serving.
2. Byrd is Senate President Pro Temp, which means he runs the Senate Majority, is in charge of the Senate when the Vice President isn't there, and is 3rd in line to the President (Should anything happen to Bush & Cheney, Byrd takes over).
3. Byrd is Chairman of Senate Appropriations. He holds the PurseStrings.

Byrd giving Obama the nod is BIG NEWS to the Beltway.
Expect a sudden shift in SuperDelegates.

Ender · Post by **Ender** » 2008-05-20 10:13am

LadyTevar wrote:Senator Robert C. Byrd (D-WV) just endorsed Obama.

Some people might not think much of that, but you have to understand Sen. Byrd's position in the insular, incestuous Beltway Politics.

1. Byrd is the Most Senior Senator. Oldest serving, longest Serving.
2. Byrd is Senate President Pro Temp, which means he runs the Senate Majority, is in charge of the Senate when the Vice President isn't there, and is 3rd in line to the President (Should anything happen to Bush & Cheney, Byrd takes over).
3. Byrd is Chairman of Senate Appropriations. He holds the PurseStrings.

Byrd giving Obama the nod is BIG NEWS to the Beltway.
Expect a sudden shift in SuperDelegates.

You also want to consider the fact that the former Exalted Cyclops of the KKK is endorsing a black man for president.

EDIT: also, Byrd is 4th, if something happens to Bush and Cheney then Pelosi takes over, then Byrd.

NeoGoomba · Post by **NeoGoomba** » 2008-05-20 10:40am

Even Warren Buffett has abandoned the Clintons and thrown his support behind Obama.

There certainly is a crazy alliance forming behind him. Its just a matter of time before Nick Fury shows up with the SHIELD vote.

Post by **LadyTevar** » 2008-05-20 12:09pm

Ender wrote:EDIT: also, Byrd is 4th, if something happens to Bush and Cheney then Pelosi takes over, then Byrd.

You're right, Byrd is 3rd in line. I keep forgetting it's Speaker of House, then President Pro Temp

Patrick Degan · Post by **Patrick Degan** » 2008-05-20 01:53pm

CmdrWilkens wrote:Thankfully by the end of the day we should finally stop hearing from the alst half dozen pundits who think she has a chance (and they are out there). I know she could play dirty tricks to get the nomination but she wouldn't sconsider career suicide like that because the rest of the party, if she divides and fucks them over, will make sure to bury her when she runs for Senate re-election in 2010 (after splitting the party bad enough to lose this year). I hope that she is smart enough to realize that the narrative and the math are against her and you have to call it quits sooner or later. Still the fact that she keeps pumping money into her campaign like a gambler trying to double down to get back to even doesn't give me much hope.

I'm afraid I have no confidence in her ability to see sense at the end of the day. Hillary is literally sacrificing everything in order to somehow, someway, pull out of the fire her shot at destiny. I really do believe she has lost sight of the larger picture and is willing to continue this fight to the bitter, bloody end and the party's chances in November be damned.

CaptainChewbacca · Post by **CaptainChewbacca** » 2008-05-20 03:20pm

One of the late-night shows mentioned it, but Hillary's campaign is $20 million in debt, making it the most expensive fantasy camp of all time.

Post by **Darth Wong** » 2008-05-20 03:23pm

CaptainChewbacca wrote:One of the late-night shows mentioned it, but Hillary's campaign is $20 million in debt, making it the most expensive fantasy camp of all time.

Not even the nominee, and she's already $20 million in debt ... she really is ready to be President! From Day One!

CmdrWilkens · Post by **CmdrWilkens** » 2008-05-20 03:40pm

Darth Wong wrote:
CaptainChewbacca wrote:One of the late-night shows mentioned it, but Hillary's campaign is $20 million in debt, making it the most expensive fantasy camp of all time.
Not even the nominee, and she's already $20 million in debt ... she really is ready to be President! From Day One!

Admittedly $11mil of the debt to herself so she could just write it off but that is still close to $9mil that she needs just to pay everybody off. Now she could do that relatively easily if she shuts down all of her field offices and suspends most of her long-range activities and plays for money from every group that still thinks she has a shot. Unofruntately EVEN if she does that it just gets her back to even and then it also dismantles anything resembling the naitonal infrastructure Obama has built.

Right now part of the cost of the Obama campaign is the fact that virtually every primary state still has offices open and ALREADY working for the GE (I can attest to this personally for MD/DC/VA since I'm still on the mailing list). Clinton would literally have to rebuild from scratch and the time it would take to do so is time she doesn't have.