The Impending Bush Coup That's Not Gonna Happen

[Einhander Sn0m4n]

On The Upcoming Coup That's Not Actually Upcoming

"I deeply resent the way this administration makes me feel like a nutbar conspiracy theorist." -- Teresa Nielsen Hayden (who is not, in fact, a nutbar conspiracy theorist)

There seems to be an uptick these days in the concern that the Bush administration, sometime before November 2008 will cancel the elections, institute martial law, and implode the democracy we spent 221 years working on solely to remain in power. And this concern isn't just coming from the usual nutbag corners; people who I know are sane are vexed with themselves because they see the various executive orders and policies the Bushies have pushed and can logically see how they're positioned for a coup of the Constitution of the United States, and they can't convince themselves that the Bushies won't try it. The Bush administration has caused even the sane people to get all tin-foil-y.

Okay.

First: Deep breath, everyone. Seriously, find your happy place inside before we go any further. Yes, pat that imaginary pony and feed it a sugar lump. Imaginary pony loves you. Feel better? Excellent.

Second: The coup ain't gonna happen. It's just not.

Practical reasons first. Assuming Bush did decide to declare martial law over the entire nation, how on Earth is he going to enforce it? The federal government, even at this late stage in the Bush administration, is not entirely composed of Regent University graduates; there aren't enough people in the government itself who would be willing to follow Bush down that road. And even if there were, does anyone believe the sort of people the Bush administration appoints -- folks who we know are picked for ideological purity over actual competence in their job -- are going to be able to administer a coup of this magnitude? For God's sake, it took them a week to find the Superdome after Hurricane Katrina. It's on maps. Does anyone really believe that this bunch could manage martial law -- an infinitely more complex undertaking -- any better?

Maybe Bush and his incompetent appointees could get away with it if he had the people behind him. But he doesn't; not even close. Bush has been deeply unpopular longer than any other president in history; The American people are not going to provide him with the sheep-like acquiescence he'd need to pull off martial law -- no, not even if there were another terrorist attack (even a manufactured one, he said, with a nod to the nutbags), since at this late date too many people would blame the administration itself for not being competent enough to stop the attack, or would indeed suspect the administration of orchestrating the attack itself. This is without even beginning to consider the resistance on the state governmental level; honestly, if you think state governors are going to get in line for an event that will almost certainly strip them and their governments of any power, you'll be in for a surprise.

Well, you say, if Bush has the military, he doesn't need popular or state support. Well, to begin, it's not at all clear he "has the military" at the extreme level required to shred the Constitution. I rather strongly suspect there are a whole lot of people in the military who remember that their oath of office is to defend the Constitution of the United States, not to follow the orders of the president in circumvention of the same. I know that there is somewhat popular opinion of military as right-wing patsies, grunts to generals; aside from being incredibly insulting to the people who serve our country and often pay dearly for it on many levels, it's also outside my experience of the people I know who have served. Many of them are right-wing; very few of them are what I would call patsies. Their brains work just fine.

Even more practically than that, the military is nowhere near large enough to hold the entire of the United States, even when it isn't currently fighting a war which has taxed the strength and resiliency of the current ground forces. These same forces, incidentally, whom I suspect realize that the only way they are going to stop getting rotated into the battle lines for ever-increasing tours of duty is either to leave some large chunk of themselves on an Iraqi roadside, or to get Bush out of office. We don't even need to go to the question of whether the US military, individually or as an institution, is willing to shoot and kill US citizens in their home towns.

There is no practical way Bush (or, to be honest about it, any president) could institute nationwide martial law and actually make it work, for values of "work" which mean "a smooth transition from federal republic to dictatorship." If the goal is to destroy the United States, well, then, it would work just fine; for Bush maintaining power, not so much.

And in reality it wouldn't destroy the US. In the real world, what is likely to happen is that everyone who is not George Bush or one of his circle of cronies will do the calculus, realize that it's far easier to get rid of Bush and his relatively small and unpopular cadre than destroy the country, and do that instead. Which is to say that in the real world, the end result of Bush declaring himself emperor would be the installation of Nancy Pelosi as president through January 2009, the destruction of the Republican party, and a Democratic majority in all branches of the government for the next 50 years at least. And Bush, Cheney et al tried for treason. I don't expect they'd actually execute Bush for the crime; it'd be a perk of having been president. But I wouldn't count on Cheney not getting the needle.

But all this is moot, since words cannot begin to express the level of doubt I have that any scenario even vaguely approaching anything like the above is in the offing. First, I don't believe that anyone in the administration -- even Cheney -- dreams of a coup of this sort. I just don't. Given the fact that I think this is the worst president since James Buchanan and manifestly the worst administration in toto ever, you can be assured this opinion is not from someone who thinks gently on the executive branch. But, really, and even leaving aside the idea that Bush, et al genuinely love this country too much to destroy it (which I believe they do, even if they show it in sometimes funny ways), they've invested too much time trying to argue that everything they do is constitutional to blow the fiction down the home stretch.

Second, as I've noted before, the plan for the next eighteen months is a simple one: For Bush and pals to finish out their terms of office without actually admitting guilt about anything, so that when the extent of the damage is finally assessed, it'll look less attractive to punish them because they don't actually have any power any more, and also because then whatever apologists for the Bush administration who still exist can still claim the public had it all wrong, and that the administration was much better than people give it credit for. This is a far simpler and far more achievable goal, and while this administration is the worst ever, one thing it is good at is throwing up procedural nonsense to get it through to its goals. The goal now is simply to get out intact.

Yes, I could be wrong about all of this, which means I'll be among the first to be Guantanamoed when the revolution comes -- assuming they don't just get it over with and shoot me in the head. But you'll note, I hope, that I'm not actually going anywhere; I'm not actually worried about a coup, or a dictatorship, or the collapse of American democracy via a George Bush executive order. It's not going to happen. Rather than worry about this lurid fantasy, focus instead on what's actually going on with your government and executive branch, which is problematic enough. Find a way to deal with all that now, and you won't have to fill your thoughts with coups and sniggering, dim-bulb dictators.

Posted on July 28, 2007 11:52 AM

[Sea Skimmer]

The ‘Bush Coup’ crackpot theories have always been so divorced from reality it’s just pathetic that it could even exist as a conspiracy theory. I mean really… even ignoring all the practical issues, what has ever given ANYONE the idea that Bush actually enjoys being president and would want to be dictator for life instead of going home to cut brush in on his ranch?

[lazerus]

Not a bad read. While I know that it's never gonna happen (And indeed, always have known. It's fairly absurd) I'll confess that I still find the idea disquieting. A sort of 'Well I woudln't put it past him' that slips past the more rational part of my mind.

[SirNitram]

The ‘Bush Coup’ crackpot theories have always been so divorced from reality it’s just pathetic that it could even exist as a conspiracy theory. I mean really… even ignoring all the practical issues, what has ever given ANYONE the idea that Bush actually enjoys being president and would want to be dictator for life instead of going home to cut brush in on his ranch?

The fact he's already selling his ranch?

There's some definite signs of moving to enable this down the line, but the problem was they all failed horribly. Flat-out-Authoritarian Guiliani burned out with the worst cash-to-primary-votes ratio, Lousiana didn't submit to becoming a Federal Territory in the face of Katrina, and none of the scandals that truly make it feasible to do this went without being noticed.

I truly doubt that even if all the nonsense they tried had worked, they would use Bush. It'd be set there, like landmines, waiting for someone who would seize power permenantly. Most were committed during the 'Permenant Republican Majority' delusion phase, where they no doubt thought they'd be able to hand-pick their next go.

[Darth Wong]

The idea of an actual coup is silly; these people are much too clever for that. Instead, they would prefer to gradually undermine democracy rather than toppling it overnight. And this is something they've already achieved in large part, by ensuring that the media (which, despite claims to the contrary, is owned by right-wingers, not liberals) is overwhelmingly powerful in affecting election outcomes, and by further ensuring that there is no real governor ensuring fairness in the media.

[Illuminatus Primus]

People fixate too much on the "one man"-model. A better one would be an extension of "Permanent Republic Majority" or the like, eroding liberal democracy until the U.S. was afflicted with a ruling elite/party on the PRI/United Russia model.

[Coyote]

What Bush really wanted, more than anything else, was really to be Baseball Commissioner. He can't do that if he's busy playing Caligula.

[Elfdart]

Au contraire, Bush has shown far more interest in cornholing and water torture than in baseball. How else can you explain Abu Ghraib and trading away Sammy Sosa in the prime of his career?

[FSTargetDrone]

The ‘Bush Coup’ crackpot theories have always been so divorced from reality it’s just pathetic that it could even exist as a conspiracy theory. I mean really… even ignoring all the practical issues, what has ever given ANYONE the idea that Bush actually enjoys being president and would want to be dictator for life instead of going home to cut brush in on his ranch?

He's spent something like 450 days on vacation over his presidency.

I don't think my own father has had 450 vacation days in his life, over 45+ years of working.

[Oskuro]

We had similar theories around here when the former right-wing government was in full swing.

Nothing of the sort happened, of course, but I can understand how someone might think of a coup from people who seem to do things their way regardless of everyone else, you just have a hard time picturing them accepting a negative election result.

[Darth Wong]

The ‘Bush Coup’ crackpot theories have always been so divorced from reality it’s just pathetic that it could even exist as a conspiracy theory. I mean really… even ignoring all the practical issues, what has ever given ANYONE the idea that Bush actually enjoys being president and would want to be dictator for life instead of going home to cut brush in on his ranch?

He's spent something like 450 days on vacation over his presidency.

I don't think my own father has had 450 vacation days in his life, over 45+ years of working.

Weekends are excluded from vacation days, aren't they? If that's based on 5 day workweeks, then 450 vacation days is 90 workweeks, which means he's been on vacation for almost two years, out of the 7 years he's been in office.

[Pulp Hero]

Of course things like the Olympics are "Official State Business" as well.

[Haruko]

The ‘Bush Coup’ crackpot theories have always been so divorced from reality it’s just pathetic that it could even exist as a conspiracy theory. I mean really… even ignoring all the practical issues, what has ever given ANYONE the idea that Bush actually enjoys being president and would want to be dictator for life instead of going home to cut brush in on his ranch?

He's spent something like 450 days on vacation over his presidency.

I don't think my own father has had 450 vacation days in his life, over 45+ years of working.

Weekends are excluded from vacation days, aren't they? If that's based on 5 day workweeks, then 450 vacation days is 90 workweeks, which means he's been on vacation for almost two years, out of the 7 years he's been in office.

According to the 13 August 2008 transcript of Countdown posted on the MSNBC website, Keith Olbermann pointed out that

Mr. Bush criticized Congress for taking a five-week vacation without voting on the phony, baloney idea to increase offshore drilling so the price of gas might drop a nickel in 2018. This after the president returned from his vacation at the Olympics and just before he went back to Texas for his annual August vacation in Crawford.

So far in his presidency, Mr. Bush has gone there for 466 days of vacation. He‘s gone to Camp David for 450 more, that alone totals to 2 ½ years of vacation. The first president ever to view the job as a part-time gig.

[The Big I]

What you mean Alex Jones doesn't know what's happening in our skull and bones hierarchy

[cosmicalstorm]

Back before the 2004 election conspiracy-sites like prisonplanet and rense.com were drowning in these kind of predictions.

One of the more hilarious events was when a group of Alex Jones supporters were out demonstrating in some small town and a group of soldiers with tanks and hummers who had taken the wrong way back to their base stopped by the demonstration and asked them for directions back to their base, Alex went insane and immideatly used that as evidence for the impending "federal powergrab" with some headline like "Soldiers dispatched to quash 9/11 protestors!!!"

[docfrance]

At this point it would take nothing short of a mind control ray in order for Bush to orchestrate that kind of swift, widespread coup. I mean, it's entirely possible (but doubtful) that he'd try, but he has no means by which to accomplish it. As was pointed out in the article, not even the military likes him enough for that kind of thing.

Of course, as I type this there's an ad at the bottom asking me to donate 25$ to the McCain campaign, so who knows. They're always watching...