Canadians Likely Face Fall Election

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Canadians Likely Face Fall Election

Post by Aaron »

CBC
There is no doubt Canadians will face an election this fall, Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion said Monday following a brief meeting with Prime Minister Stephen Harper in Ottawa.

Calling the meeting a "charade," Dion said the two were unable to agree on how to make the upcoming session of Parliament, slated to begin Sept. 15, more productive.


"There is no agreement … but there wasn't one six months or 12 months ago," Dion said outside the gates of the prime minister's official residence, less than 30 minutes after the meeting began. "There's nothing new there. It's nothing but an excuse."

Dion said Harper looked directly into his face during the meeting and told him there will be a vote this fall.

The Conservatives had set Oct. 19, 2009, as the date for the next federal election. However, the prime minister has recently suggested he is ready to pull the plug on his current minority government.

"The prime minister is not going to respect the fixed-date election legislation that he himself proposed and got passed in the House," Dion said.

The Liberal leader said he told Harper "it was really unfortunate that he has so little respect for the rule of law here in Canada."

Harper has said fixed election dates do not apply to minority governments. His spokesperson, Kory Teneycke, said Monday that a fall election called at the behest of the prime minister is perfectly legal.

"The fixed election date law provides for this exact situation. It's not a violation of that law. Mr. Dion may not understand what that law is, but this is clearly provided for," Teneycke said.

"If Mr. Dion wanted to avoid an election date … he would give some assurance that the government could survive until [2009]."

Government officials have said Harper is prepared to trigger an election call any time after Tuesday.
Election call a way to dodge byelections, Dion alleges

Dion suggested Harper is eager to hold the vote a year ahead of schedule because he "doesn't want Canadians to have too much time to see how much he is ill-prepared to face the economy, how much he has difficulties with some ethical problems, and he doesn't want to see the results of byelections."

Three federal byelections have been scheduled in Quebec and Ontario on Sept. 8, while a fourth byelection is slated to take place in Ontario on Sept. 22.

Dion said he knew Harper was determined to hold an election this fall, but met with him Monday to tell him face-to-face that he thought the move was irresponsible and violated Canadian law.

Shortly after taking office in 2006, Harper touted his fixed-election law as a major step towards reforming Canadian democracy.

"Fixed election dates stop leaders from trying to manipulate the calendar," Harper said at the time. "They level the playing field for all parties. The rules are clear for everybody.

"Unless we're defeated or prevented from governing, we want to keep moving forward to make this minority parliament work over the next 3½ years," Harper said.

The prime minister has since declared that the workings of the House of Commons, where his party's 127 seats give him a minority, have become "dysfunctional." The Liberals hold 95 seats, the Bloc 48 and the NDP 30. The Greens recently gained their first MP, former Independent Blair Wilson, while there are three Independent MPs and four vacant seats.

The prime minister has met with other opposition leaders in the past few days to determine whether there is common ground to avoid a fall election and to secure their support on an agenda for the fall session of Parliament.

Meetings with NDP Leader Jack Layton and Gilles Duceppe of the Bloc Québécois, however, followed a similar script: the opposition leaders emerged to say Harper is intent on calling an election this week, with a vote to be held in mid-October.

Opposition leaders could avoid an election if they provided some certainty that legislation could be passed during the upcoming session of Parliament, Teneycke said Monday.

Dion, however, said he refused to provide Harper with a "blank cheque" when asked if he would support the government until October 2009.

"Because he's confusing two things. Does the Parliament work? The answer is yes. Does the government have the certainty to survive. The answer is no."
With files from the Canadian Press

I find it funny (the sad kind) that Dion and the Liberals had the chance to bring the Conservatives down over Afghanistan the last time we had a confidence motion and folded and are now bitching that there will be an election.

Someone on the board mentioned that Dion lacked a set of balls and boy was he right. That said, what are the chances for another PC victory?
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Post by pieman3141 »

I don't exactly trust the Cons as a majority, but it's certain that they haven't screwed up majorly yet. I trust the Liberals even less, though. They don't seem to have a clue as to what to do.

For now, I'm voting for Greens/NDP even though they have no chance of winning in my riding.
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Post by Aaron »

Update:
CBC Updated The Story, Same Link wrote: Prime Minister Stephen Harper will later this week ask Governor General Michaëlle Jean to set Oct. 14 as the date for the next federal election, senior government officials said Monday.

Harper will visit Jean at Rideau Hall, her official residence in Ottawa, to establish the election date, the officials told the Canadian Press, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The prime minister will declare that, after having met with all three opposition leaders over the last few days, he no longer has the confidence of Parliament, the sources said. As per tradition, it will then be up to Jean to decide whether to dissolve Parliament and set the election date.

The official election call is expected to be made either Friday or Saturday.

"It will happen between [September] 5th and the 7th," a senior government source told the Canadian Press.

"There will be an election kickoff between Friday and Sunday."

The news came just hours after Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion came out of a brief meeting with Harper in Ottawa saying he had no doubt Canadians will face an election this fall.
Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion speaks to reporters outside the prime minister's residence in Ottawa on Monday.Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion speaks to reporters outside the prime minister's residence in Ottawa on Monday. (CBC)

Calling the meeting a "charade," Dion said the two were unable to agree on how to make the upcoming session of Parliament, slated to begin Sept. 15, more productive.

"There is no agreement … but there wasn't one six months or 12 months ago," Dion said outside the gates of the prime minister's official residence, less than 30 minutes after the meeting began. "There's nothing new there. It's nothing but an excuse."

Dion said Harper looked directly into his face during the meeting and told him there will be a vote this fall.

The Conservatives had set Oct. 19, 2009, as the date for the next federal election. However, the prime minister has recently suggested he is ready to pull the plug on his current minority government.

"The prime minister is not going to respect the fixed-date election legislation that he himself proposed and got passed in the House," Dion said.

The Liberal leader said he told Harper "it was really unfortunate that he has so little respect for the rule of law here in Canada."

Harper has said fixed election dates do not apply to minority governments. His spokesperson, Kory Teneycke, said Monday that a fall election called at the behest of the prime minister is perfectly legal.

"The fixed election date law provides for this exact situation. It's not a violation of that law. Mr. Dion may not understand what that law is, but this is clearly provided for," Teneycke said.

"If Mr. Dion wanted to avoid an election date … he would give some assurance that the government could survive until [2009]."

Government officials have said Harper is prepared to trigger an election call any time after Tuesday.
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Post by Ma Deuce »

Cpl Kendall wrote:I find it funny (the sad kind) that Dion and the Liberals had the chance to bring the Conservatives down over Afghanistan the last time we had a confidence motion and folded and are now bitching that there will be an election.
They've folded every time the Tories have brought up the confidence gauntlet (even when they'd have nothing to lose by bringing down the government), thus giving Harper a de facto majority.
Someone on the board mentioned that Dion lacked a set of balls and boy was he right.


That might have been me, though I'm sure I'm not the only one here who called it.
That said, what are the chances for another PC victory
That's most likely outcome. This seems to be a carefully calculated move by Harper: He obviously believes he will win, and he's probably correct. And although campaigns have been known to take unexpected swings close to voting day, another Tory minority seems most likely based on the information we have now.

The Conservatives and Liberals are statistically tied nationally at the moment, and the Tories have a substantial lead in Quebec (they are tied with the Bloc at about 30%, vs 20% for the Liberals), and even though they're ahead in Ontario, it's unlikely the Liberals will be able to gain more than say, 3-5 additional seats here (some of which would come form the NDP). Dion's pet idea also isn't exactly getting an overwhelming response from the public (45% in favor, last I checked).

So, in short, whoever runs the better campaign will most likely win, and given Dion's demonstrated lack of political leadership skills, as well as his party's dismal campaign last time around and it's current disorganized state, I have no faith it's going to be the Liberals.
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Post by Enigma »

Will there be a possibility should the Tories win again for Dion to quit as Liberal party leader?
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Post by Imperial Overlord »

Enigma wrote:Will there be a possibility should the Tories win again for Dion to quit as Liberal party leader?
Good chance of him quitting or getting pulled down.
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Post by TithonusSyndrome »

pieman3141 wrote:I don't exactly trust the Cons as a majority, but it's certain that they haven't screwed up majorly yet. I trust the Liberals even less, though. They don't seem to have a clue as to what to do.

For now, I'm voting for Greens/NDP even though they have no chance of winning in my riding.
Well that's not such a bad thing anyways, considering that smaller parties in this country actually do pull in some ducats based on how many votes they get so they can keep their heads above water, if memory serves. Voting for either party might not take them to the House, but it will at least help keep their campaign afloat.
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Post by Lagmonster »

Dion doesn't stand a chance in hell of rallying Canadian votes to the Liberal party. Even if he were the most brilliant economist and tactician alive today, nobody would vote for him, because he talks like a kid caught with his hand in a cookie jar and looks like someone who got beat up for his lunch money every day at recess.

And Harper is currently the man of the people for slicing 2% off of the national sales tax. I personally can explain his political faults to middle-class folk until I turn blue, but all I hear in response is "but...lowered taxes!".
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Post by Stormin »

Indeed. Around where I live Dion doesn't stand much of a chance at all. The Torey's are seen as pretty much neutral. They haven't done much but nobody wants to get the Liberals into power so they can set up that "tax on everything" that keeps getting mentioned nearly ALL THE TIME on the radio.
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Post by Ma Deuce »

Enigma wrote:Will there be a possibility should the Tories win again for Dion to quit as Liberal party leader?
While normally in Canadian politics party leaders are allowed to fail two elections before getting turfed, in this case Dion's poor leadership performance has burned through a lot of his party's confidence, so this election very likely is do or die time for him. Can't say I'm too enthused about his most likely successors though (Iggy or Bob Rae).
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Post by Solauren »

Unfortunately, polls are showing that the Conservatives might be able to pull of a (slim) majority government....

Conservatives strong ahead of election call
TORONTO (Reuters) - Canada's ruling Conservatives are within reach of gaining the support they need to win a majority government as Canada gears up for an October election, according to an opinion poll released on Tuesday.

The Strategic Counsel survey, in the Globe and Mail newspaper, showed the Conservatives with support of 37 percent of voters, just below the 40 percent threshold that pollsters say gives a strong chance of winning a majority government.

That's well above the 29 percent support the survey showed for the opposition Liberals, and the 17 percent polled by the left-wing New Democrats. The environmentalist Greens polled 9 percent.

The Conservatives won power in January 2006. But they have only a minority of seats in Parliament, and the Liberals have kept them in power in recent months by abstaining on key legislation.

But that informal cooperation is over, and Prime Minister Stephen Harper now says he thinks an election is the only way to fix what he sees as a dysfunctional Parliament. If he calls an election this week, as expected, Canadians would vote on October 14.

"With these numbers, a majority is within the reach of the Conservatives, but not yet in their grasp," pollster Peter Donolo told the Globe.

Liberal leader Stephane Dion has made the environment the main plank of his platform, and the poll showed that 15 percent of voters agreed that the environment was the most important issue at this election, and 20 percent thought the Liberals were the best party to deal with the issue.

But 20 percent viewed Canada's slowing domestic economy as the most important issue, and 38 percent thought the Conservatives were the best party to deal with it.

Strategic Counsel polled 1,000 Canadian voters for its survey. It says the results are accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 95 percent of the time.

(Reporting by Janet Guttsman; Editing by Scott Anderson)
With those kind of numbers, all they'd need is one or two seated people to cross the floor, and the PC's control the House....
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Post by Ma Deuce »

Solauren wrote:With those kind of numbers, all they'd need is one or two seated people to cross the floor, and the PC's control the House....
We've seen the Conservatives spike this high (or higher) in the polls before, but they've never maintained it, so it's best to look at polling trends, rather than the results of a single poll. If over the next couple of weeks the Conservatives maintain this lead, then that's something noteworthy, but honestly I don't see that happening. This election will probably turn out much like the recent Ontario election in being basically about nothing, with the seat count of each party changing very little.
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Post by Solauren »

One can only hope.

A nice swift kick in the ass of the political parties of 'see, nothing changed, now get to work' could be useful.

After all, as a minority, the PC's have to do alot of deal-making to get bills passed, which prevents them from doing anything to damaging.
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Post by Enigma »

Ma Deuce wrote:
Enigma wrote:Will there be a possibility should the Tories win again for Dion to quit as Liberal party leader?
While normally in Canadian politics party leaders are allowed to fail two elections before getting turfed, in this case Dion's poor leadership performance has burned through a lot of his party's confidence, so this election very likely is do or die time for him. Can't say I'm too enthused about his most likely successors though (Iggy or Bob Rae).
To succeed the Libs need someone fresh and no way tied to Paul Martin or Jean Chretien. Iggy or Bob have too much baggage that the Tories will have a field day burying them.
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Post by Lisa »

I still remember the damage bob did as leader of the ndp to ontario. how he managed to go federally to the libs i still don't know
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Post by Enigma »

Lisa wrote:I still remember the damage bob did as leader of the ndp to Ontario. how he managed to go federally to the libs i still don't know
Screwed Ontario financially and gave us the mess with the doctor shortage and gave the ability of the mentally unstable the legal right to refuse medication that could help them.
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Post by Ma Deuce »

Lisa wrote: how he managed to go federally to the libs i still don't know
Quite simple; he publicly renounced the NDP as being too radical, and claimed to have learned his lesson from his tenure as Premier (I'm willing to accept this as being true, though that doesn't mean I'm willing to give him a second chance with that much more at stake), then after working himself into the Liberals' good graces, he "parachuted" into a safe Liberal riding in downtown Toronto after the it's previous MP retired. The latter part is also how Iggy got elected, despite having not lived in Canada for the previous 27 years.

Which reminds me, I heard the Liberals even tried to recruit Buzz Hargrove to run for them in the upcoming election, though he declined.
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Post by President Sharky »

I personally think Dion's Carbon Tax idea will torpedo Liberal chances in this election, just like how John Tory's retarded Faith-based schools idea completely sunk the Ontario PCs campaign against Dalton McGuinty last year.

I cannot fathom how Dion badly will perform in the leaders debate against the much more experienced Harper, Layton, and Duceppe.
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Post by Justforfun000 »

All in all I'm happy that some major issues like Gay marriage have been dealt with and are now too late to repeal. Even with a majority government, only the hardcore fundamentalists would even dream of supporting movements seeking to reverse such changes.

How much damage could the Tories do if they got a majority?
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Post by aerius »

Justforfun000 wrote:How much damage could the Tories do if they got a majority?
Off the top of my head, they could start running massive budget deficits again which would fuck over our healthcare & social security system in the medium to long term. I wouldn't be surprised if there's more deregulation leading to more wealth inequality with the middle & lower income people getting assraped. Environmental regulations go out the window and their corporate industry buddies get the "nudge nudge, wink wink" treatment even if they blatantly break the laws. Oh, and the city of Toronto gets fucked even more than it already is, it'll start heading the way of Detroit if Harper has his way.

But the GST will go down another percent so that makes everything good!
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Post by Aaron »

aerius wrote:
Oh, and the city of Toronto gets fucked even more than it already is, it'll start heading the way of Detroit if Harper has his way.
I've heard all your other points before but's what's this about Toronto, a reference to cut Federal funding?
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Off the top of my head, they could start running massive budget deficits again which would fuck over our healthcare & social security system in the medium to long term.
Was that them? I thought the Liberals did that...
I wouldn't be surprised if there's more deregulation leading to more wealth inequality with the middle & lower income people getting assraped.
Yes, this is true. They are basically a clone of the Republican party after all...
Oh, and the city of Toronto gets fucked even more than it already is
I'm getting used to that. I'm starting to think that's a priority list given these days... :P
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Post by aerius »

Cpl Kendall wrote:I've heard all your other points before but's what's this about Toronto, a reference to cut Federal funding?
Basically, a huge amount of money gets funneled away from Toronto to pay for various things and make sure those Newfie fishermen keep getting their unemployment checks. Toronto is left with little money to keep our infrastructure running and all that other stuff, our money gets sent to elsewhere so they can build all kinds of stuff. The Liberals leave us just enough so we don't get too upset, the Conservatives hate us and would look for a way to bleed us dry if they even thought they could get away with it.
Justforfun000 wrote:
Off the top of my head, they could start running massive budget deficits again which would fuck over our healthcare & social security system in the medium to long term.
Was that them? I thought the Liberals did that...
It was the Liberals that turned around the deficit left by the Conservatives and gave us a decade of budget surpluses. Up until a few months ago, the Conservatives were actually running a budget deficit again, yeah, something tells me they ain't responsible enough to run a balanced budget.
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Post by Enigma »

aerius wrote:
Cpl Kendall wrote:I've heard all your other points before but's what's this about Toronto, a reference to cut Federal funding?
Basically, a huge amount of money gets funneled away from Toronto to pay for various things and make sure those Newfie fishermen keep getting their unemployment checks. Toronto is left with little money to keep our infrastructure running and all that other stuff, our money gets sent to elsewhere so they can build all kinds of stuff. The Liberals leave us just enough so we don't get too upset, the Conservatives hate us and would look for a way to bleed us dry if they even thought they could get away with it.
Justforfun000 wrote:
Off the top of my head, they could start running massive budget deficits again which would fuck over our healthcare & social security system in the medium to long term.
Was that them? I thought the Liberals did that...
It was the Liberals that turned around the deficit left by the Conservatives and gave us a decade of budget surpluses. Up until a few months ago, the Conservatives were actually running a budget deficit again, yeah, something tells me they ain't responsible enough to run a balanced budget.
But it was the Liberals that downloaded a whole bunch of programs and such onto the backs of the provinces and in turn dumped them onto the municipalities. Also the Liberals cut the amount of healthcare dollars to the provinces so that the federal government covered only 15% of overall healthcare costs. Remember, when we first got the universal health care the costs was originally meant to be split between the federal government and the provinces 50-50. Mulroney came in and made it more favourable by cutting their end by 10-15%(I think) while Paul Martin as finance minister slashed it even further.

Harper can't go any further unless he decides to download all of the healthcare costs to the provinces.

Then again all the info I learned on this was from the radio while working so take it with a grain of salt.
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Post by Phantasee »

Dion is coming to the U of A for a speech tomorrow (well, today in 20 minutes). I'm planning on going, see if I get a chance to meet him and shake his hand. I know you can't completely judge a person by how they seem when you say hi, but I definitely didn't like Kevin Taft (Alberta Liberal Leader) when I met him, and that really affected my perception of the party.

Is that wrong, though? I mean, it's the party itself that selects the leader, so he is a direct reflection on the party membership, no?
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