Yet another hijack

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Yet another hijack

Post by MKSheppard »

Stas Bush wrote:Technically though I don't see your right wing leaders being too adept at procurement of military systems, with stuff like NLOS-C, LCS and V-22...
Actually, Cheney did kill V-22 as SecDef in 1991/92. Then the Marines led a battle in Congress to save it, and the Marine General who led the battle, retired shortly afterwards, and took a cushy job with Bell/Boeing (the manufacturers.)

As for NLOS-C; damn Rumsfeld, nevermind the fact that PzH 2000's first combat mission was in A-Stan; Crusader was too heavy to fight guerillas. :roll:

Lil Crap Ship? The less said about it, the better.

Honestly, our procurement system has been broken and bleeding arterial spray since Kennedy put Robert S McNamara in charge of defense procurement, and McNamara utterly gutted our system.

Give you an example; no actually two.

Springfield Armory; the government owned armory -- always derided by "inventors" as being stodgy and conservative -- that was because they'd tried everything, and knew what worked, and what didn't. Closed down by McNamara as a cost cutting measure.

The Naval Shipyards -- McNamara began the process of shutting down the government's shipyards; the last Naval Ship built by one was in the 1970s. Pretty soon, the corporate identity of the shipyards was lost -- leading to abortions like Little Crappy Ship. The Lockheed Martin LCS was based on the "Short Fat Planing Hull" fraud that had been perpetated about 25 years before in the UK. A lot of the delays and cost overruns in the LockMart LCS were due to having to totally redesign the ship from the keel up. A Naval shipyard design team from BuShips would have taken one look at the LM design; and remembered the fraud 25 years earlier and said "won't work", to the infuriation of the LockMart executives.
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Re: What would it take to fall out of love with the right-wing?

Post by K. A. Pital »

The taxpayer cost involved in doing so given the current state of the US economy would destroy the nation entirely.
Would it?

You are spending over $500 billion on military. With claims that a good chunk of this money goes to "R&D" and "procurement". So if you spend more than everyone else on R&D and procurement, shouldn't it at least bring tangible results? Instead of wasting huge sums of taxpayer's money on bullshit systems? Some of which get cancelled only after billions are spent already?
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Re: What would it take to fall out of love with the right-wing?

Post by Vendetta »

MKSheppard wrote:Honestly, our procurement system has been broken and bleeding arterial spray since Kennedy put Robert S McNamara in charge of defense procurement, and McNamara utterly gutted our system.
You mean sold it off to private interests like a good little right winger?
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Re: What would it take to fall out of love with the right-wing?

Post by Vendetta »

Stas Bush wrote:
The taxpayer cost involved in doing so given the current state of the US economy would destroy the nation entirely.
Would it?

You are spending over $500 billion on military. With claims that a good chunk of this money goes to "R&D" and "procurement". So if you spend more than everyone else on R&D and procurement, shouldn't it at least bring tangible results? Instead of wasting huge sums of taxpayer's money on bullshit systems? Some of which get cancelled only after billions are spent already?
A system which spends $500 billion annually (20% of tax revenues) just ticking over will cost a vast amount more if you actually try and get some results out of it.
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Re: What would it take to fall out of love with the right-wing?

Post by MKSheppard »

Vendetta wrote:The taxpayer cost involved in doing so given the current state of the US economy would destroy the nation entirely.
Actually, you could run a military as big as the old 1960s military (and build it) without breaking the budget.

The keys here are

1.) No joint national programs. The British and everyone else can develop their own goddamn stealth fighter. Bringing in foreigners triples the cost of any program at a minimum, as the UK found out with EF 2000 versus building an equivalent study by BAE alone.

2.) No joint interservice programs (beyond simple stuff like tactical trucks etc). The abortion that is the F-35 is a result of Clinton killing the Navy's AFX program, as well as the USAF and Marines' programs for F-16 and AV-8 replacements, and telling them they had to concentrate on a single plane if they wanted one.

3.) No High-Low Mixes. Development costs for the F-35 is about $40 billion. That's 285 more F-22s. If you add in the $200 billion that will be needed for buying 2,400 F-35s, you get 1,400 more F-22s. As a bonus, the F-22 flies higher and faster, and supercruises; giving it significant advantages over the F-35. It also has twin engines, meaning much less operational attrition.

4.) Deleting Congressional Oversight. This has ended up costing us more than it saves, as Congress fucks around with and completely alters budgets. A hypothetical example: We have programmed say, $2 billion for the next three fiscal years in R&D for the F-40 program. The next year, congress decides arbitrarily to rearrange funding to $1.8 billion over the next five fiscal years as an "economy" measure. This leads to program delays, hence increased costs, since the accountants cannot plan ahead reliably.

This also eliminates the traditional Congressional game of "oh my god, this F-40 will cost us $150 million each to buy 1,000 of them! Lets cut the buy to five hundred F-40s! We'll save money that way!" completely fucking up the programmed buys of long lead items -- this is one reason we really only have two operational Seawolves.

All the bids for the various spare parts et al for the SSN-21 program were made by contractors and vendors for a projected fleet of twelve SSN-21s. Then congress cut it to two boats; with a third added by Clinton during his re-election campaign. This of course meant that the contractors had to raise prices on the parts in order to not take a bath on building them.

The thing is; Congress also cut the spare parts budget for the SSN-21 class at the same time they terminated the other ten boats; and the increased prices of the spares meant proportionately less were acquired, meaning the class was chronically short of parts - at least one SSN-21 is sort of in degraded condition to keep the other two at full efficiency.

5.) No cancelling programs for lighter, cheaper versions. Classic case in point is theSSN-21/Centurion/NSSN/Virginia class mess. The hue and cry in 1990 or so was "with the Cold War over, why are we going to buy 12 to 29 Seawolf SSN-21s to defend against a threat which just evaporated?"

After much congressional back and forth, it's agreed to terminate the program at two boats, and develop a cheaper SSN as an alternative, named "Centurion" or NSSN. This program would also be oriented away from "legacy" missions and more towards "littorial" missions to stay "revelant" to Congress. At the time the Centurion/NSSN program was launched; the price was to be $1.5 billion per boat.

By the time it was in production as the Virginia SSN, it cost about $2 billion per boat in FY2007. Earlier boats in FY05 cost about $2.3 billion. Meanwhile, the third Seawolf, added to production orders by Clinton against the Navy's wishes because he made a campaign promise to keep the shipyards open, cost $1.9 billion (adjusted to FY07 dollars). I don't have any firm figures on how much we spent in development on the Virginias, but one of the program reports I have for early in the program shows a steady supply of about $567 million in FY07 dollars each year in R&DTE funding over several years; that adds up pretty fast.

Another case in point is Congress and the F-22 vs F-35. They looked towards the F-35 as the "Cheap" alternative to the expensive F-22, since it was programmed to cost quite a bit less than the F-22.

However, the F-22 was just finishing it's torturous development cycle, while the F-35 was only just beginning it.

Right now, there's only a $58 million difference between the F-22 and F-35; and the F-22 flies much higher and faster (the F-35 had supercruise deleted to save money in development); among other things. This is all based on an $80 million fly away cost for the F-35; which is only likely to go up, as F-35 numbers are cut. So it's very likely the total cost difference will be only $30~ million between the two.

Additionally, we only need to look into the recent sad saga of the ARH-70. We cancelled Comanche because it would have cost too much -- $23.5 million for the first 12 of them, and about $17 ish million with mass production; in favor of the ARH-70, which was to cost $8.56 million per copy. When ARH-70 died; it's unit cost was $14.48 million. Basically, we were gonna pay 85% percent of the price of a mass production RAH-66 to get a converted traffic helicopter with virtually no armament and armor; while Comanche had excellent built in ballistic protection for the crew and the heaviest armament to weight ratio of any helicopter. Brilliance.

6.) Withdraw Forces from Overseas: It costs roughly twice as much to station a division overseas as it does to keep it in CONUS. Why do we have 31,460 troops in Korea, when the South Koreans have built up an excellent military with modern weapons? Really, do we need a full division equivalent or two as a tripwire force there when a couple of brigades will do the job?

7.) Eliminate Ballistic Missiles: This means you, Minuteman and Trident. It costs a lot of money each year for the C3I network needed to command SSBNs and Missile fields, and they're becoming more and more obsolete with each passing year as ABM grows around the world. Use the money saved from drawdown of the Missile forces to rebuild our strategic air forces.
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Re: What would it take to fall out of love with the right-wing?

Post by Gil Hamilton »

MKSheppard wrote:When the left wing purges itself of the criminally insane people who pursue such insane policies as unilateral disarmament, et al; and would rather see America vunerable in the name of "global stability".

We were at our safest in 1960, when we had 1,700 bombers backed up by 88 NIKE-HERCULES batteries, 174 NIKE-AJAX batteries in ARADCOM, and 60 squadrons of all-weather interceptors in Air Defense Command.

Today? All that is gone. And if we tried to resurrect it; there would be self-righteous bleating from the left-wing as it is constituted today. Eliminate those that bleat, and watch as the left-wing becomes a more credible alternative.
Wait... you think we were safest when there was the actual threat of nuclear war with the Soviet Union, as opposed to now when there is no major threat virtually from anyone? You have a funny definition of safe, if it includes the possible risk of being incinerated in a nuclear conflict.
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Re: What would it take to fall out of love with the right-wing?

Post by Fingolfin_Noldor »

Gil Hamilton wrote:Wait... you think we were safest when there was the actual threat of nuclear war with the Soviet Union, as opposed to now when there is no major threat virtually from anyone? You have a funny definition of safe, if it includes the possible risk of being incinerated in a nuclear conflict.
Technically, the United States was under no serious threat of being nuked at that time. It was Europe that was on the firing line.
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Re: What would it take to fall out of love with the right-wing?

Post by Vendetta »

MKSheppard wrote: 2.) No joint interservice programs (beyond simple stuff like tactical trucks etc). The abortion that is the F-35 is a result of Clinton killing the Navy's AFX program, as well as the USAF and Marines' programs for F-16 and AV-8 replacements, and telling them they had to concentrate on a single plane if they wanted one.
Except the requirements for new aircraft for the Navy and Marines won't go away, even if you pretend the F-22 can fill the F-16's mission role. So now instead of one overbloated and overbudget program, you have two or three.
3.) No High-Low Mixes. Development costs for the F-35 is about $40 billion. That's 285 more F-22s. If you add in the $200 billion that will be needed for buying 2,400 F-35s, you get 1,400 more F-22s. As a bonus, the F-22 flies higher and faster, and supercruises; giving it significant advantages over the F-35. It also has twin engines, meaning much less operational attrition.
Except, of course, it would require significant overhaul to be able to carry out many of the F-35's mission roles. It lacks stand off air to ground/surface capability, for a start, with only JDAM for air to ground, so you just drive up the F-22 cost further, or you need another new fighter to carty out most of your mission roles. Again, no cost saving and probably an increase.
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Re: What would it take to fall out of love with the right-wing?

Post by Fingolfin_Noldor »

Vendetta wrote:Except, of course, it would require significant overhaul to be able to carry out many of the F-35's mission roles. It lacks stand off air to ground/surface capability, for a start, with only JDAM for air to ground, so you just drive up the F-22 cost further, or you need another new fighter to carty out most of your mission roles. Again, no cost saving and probably an increase.
Erm.. I don't understand this. Designing the F-35 required an entirely new aircraft from ground up. It's a lot cheaper to introduce a newer variant, than to redesign an entirely new aircraft. Even the F-15 initially wasn't meant for ground missions.
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Re: What would it take to fall out of love with the right-wing?

Post by Sarevok »

Soo what exactly is Fortress America supposed to accomplish anyway besides offering a credible opponent to moon nazis and/or ID4 Aliens ?
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Re: What would it take to fall out of love with the right-wing?

Post by phongn »

Gil Hamilton wrote:Wait... you think we were safest when there was the actual threat of nuclear war with the Soviet Union, as opposed to now when there is no major threat virtually from anyone? You have a funny definition of safe, if it includes the possible risk of being incinerated in a nuclear conflict.
I'd argue Shep is correct here. The state of US military posture in 1960 ensured there was no credible threat to North America (well, except maybe Alaska); today, the US is virtually defenseless against any such attack save for a handful of ABMs in Alaska. Shep argues that a strong defensive posture would improve the security of the United States in any situation.
Sarevok wrote:Soo what exactly is Fortress America supposed to accomplish anyway besides offering a credible opponent to moon nazis and/or ID4 Aliens ?
Provide for the security of the United States as needed, keep the critical trade lanes open, provide a nuclear deterrent, etc?
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Re: What would it take to fall out of love with the right-wing?

Post by Shroom Man 777 »

Why can't the F-22 do the F-35's job, anyway? Is the F-22 too fast for the job? Is it too large for the job, so its weapons bays are inappropriately sized and are able to carry more weapons? Why can the F-35 do things that the F-22 can't?
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Re: What would it take to fall out of love with the right-wing?

Post by Gil Hamilton »

phongn wrote:I'd argue Shep is correct here. The state of US military posture in 1960 ensured there was no credible threat to North America (well, except maybe Alaska); today, the US is virtually defenseless against any such attack save for a handful of ABMs in Alaska. Shep argues that a strong defensive posture would improve the security of the United States in any situation.
What was that thing that happened in Cuba again? Something about some missiles put there? Or all those civil defense drills my parents had in high school? Had war actually broken out between the United States and the Soviet Union, are you honestly claiming that the United States would sustain no significant damage in the resulting exchange?

Further, which country is threatening America with nuclear missiles today in any sort of credible manner as the Soviet Union did? Certainly not China or modern Russia or Western Europe.
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Re: What would it take to fall out of love with the right-wing?

Post by Siege »

Shroom Man 777 wrote:Why can the F-35 do things that the F-22 can't?
It can't take off from LHDs, which is something the USMC presumably wants (and the F-35 can do, or at least the STOVL variant can).
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Re: What would it take to fall out of love with the right-wing?

Post by Shroom Man 777 »

But in terms of air-to-ground capacities, why can't the F-22 administer death from above as well as the 35 can?
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Re: What would it take to fall out of love with the right-wing?

Post by Fingolfin_Noldor »

Gil Hamilton wrote:Further, which country is threatening America with nuclear missiles today in any sort of credible manner as the Soviet Union did? Certainly not China or modern Russia or Western Europe.
Er.. last I checked, Russia still maintains a sizable nuclear arsenal, and its bomber could probably lob plenty of missiles without trouble via its bomber force.
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Re: What would it take to fall out of love with the right-wing?

Post by phongn »

Gil Hamilton wrote:What was that thing that happened in Cuba again? Something about some missiles put there? Or all those civil defense drills my parents had in high school? Had war actually broken out between the United States and the Soviet Union, are you honestly claiming that the United States would sustain no significant damage in the resulting exchange?
Until Kennedy's dismantling of the US air-defense system, it was entirely possible that the US would've come out virtually unscathed in a nuclear war. I'm quite serious.
Further, which country is threatening America with nuclear missiles today in any sort of credible manner as the Soviet Union did? Certainly not China or modern Russia or Western Europe.
Russia's deterrent is not credible? I quite think it is, even if its reduced from its Cold War readiness levels and quantity. China's remains a threat as well, even if its much smaller arsenal could be blunted by even our token NMD effort. We are certainly at peace with both countries, yes, but the threat does remain.
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Re: What would it take to fall out of love with the right-wing?

Post by Gil Hamilton »

phongn wrote:Until Kennedy's dismantling of the US air-defense system, it was entirely possible that the US would've come out virtually unscathed in a nuclear war. I'm quite serious.
What is "virtually unscathed" in a nuclear war? Aside from that being a best case scenario which isn't likely to be entirely the case, that still sounds significantly less safe than our situation today. Even if only a handful of missiles could make it through the US defenses, that's still a MUCH bigger threat than anything that exists today.
Russia's deterrent is not credible? I quite think it is, even if its reduced from its Cold War readiness levels and quantity. China's remains a threat as well, even if its much smaller arsenal could be blunted by even our token NMD effort. We are certainly at peace with both countries, yes, but the threat does remain.
Neither Russia or China are threats to us today, despite claims to the contrary. We are much safer from them now than we were in the 60s. At this point we are more at danger from shitty Chinese consumer products than we are from any missiles they may have.
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Re: What would it take to fall out of love with the right-wing?

Post by Vendetta »

Shroom Man 777 wrote:But in terms of air-to-ground capacities, why can't the F-22 administer death from above as well as the 35 can?
For a start, some weapons systems don't fit it's weapon bay. JSOW doesn't (20cm too long, and it would need some clearance) for one.

Also, it's external hardpoints are ferry only, whereas the F-35 can have active weapons systems on it's for strikes where stealth doesn't matter as much as combat load.
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Re: What would it take to fall out of love with the right-wing?

Post by MKSheppard »

Gil Hamilton wrote:What is "virtually unscathed" in a nuclear war?
Nuclear initations in the US would be in the low single digits; and our enemy would be glassed totally.
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Re: What would it take to fall out of love with the right-wing?

Post by Fingolfin_Noldor »

Gil Hamilton wrote:Neither Russia or China are threats to us today, despite claims to the contrary. We are much safer from them now than we were in the 60s. At this point we are more at danger from shitty Chinese consumer products than we are from any missiles they may have.
Simply put, that's not the way one does foreign policy. Foreign policy is done from a position of strength, and not of weakness.

And no country would dare to pretend that another cannot be a possible future threat.
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Re: What would it take to fall out of love with the right-wing?

Post by MKSheppard »

Vendetta wrote:
MKSheppard wrote:Except the requirements for new aircraft for the Navy and Marines won't go away, even if you pretend the F-22 can fill the F-16's mission role.
:wtf: The F-22 can fill any of the roles that the F-15/F-16 can now; the only problem stopping it from carrying out some of the more estosteric missions is lack of systems integration; because initial F-22 avonics baselines focused on getting air to air capability first (like the very first F-15s).
So now instead of one overbloated and overbudget program, you have two or three.
Actually; there would be:

F-22 (USAF replacement of F-15 and F-16)
AFX (USN replacement for A-6/F-18)

The Marines can pound dirt. There is no credible role for a VTOL aircraft that isn't crippled by the requirement for VTOL capability. If they want CAS, they can fly AFXes off big deck nuclear carriers.
Except, of course, it would require significant overhaul to be able to carry out many of the F-35's mission roles. It lacks stand off air to ground/surface capability, for a start, with only JDAM for air to ground
Wrong. It has air to ground standoff capability. It's called releasing JDAM at Mach 1.6 from 55,000 plus feet. And there are already talks about rocket boosted JDAMs to fill many of the roles that JSOW does.
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Re: Yet another hijack

Post by MKSheppard »

Oh, can a mod or admin rename this from (Yet another hijack) to something more in line; such as US Military Procurement (Split from xy)?

Thanks.
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Re: What would it take to fall out of love with the right-wing?

Post by MKSheppard »

Vendetta wrote:For a start, some weapons systems don't fit it's weapon bay. JSOW doesn't (20cm too long, and it would need some clearance) for one.
If length is a problem, that can be solved with an F-22B or F-22C block II version with various improvements. The cost of developing F-22B/C would be cheaper than continuing development of F-35; since the majority of systems integration problems whave been solved; whereas on F-35, they're only just beginning.
Also, it's external hardpoints are ferry only, whereas the F-35 can have active weapons systems on it's for strikes where stealth doesn't matter as much as combat load.
Wrong. Each hardpoint is rated at 5,000 lbs; right now it's only rated to carry drop tanks, because we're still very early in the F-22's operational life; and so far, the F-22 team has concentrated on bare IOC capability.
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K. A. Pital
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Re: Yet another hijack

Post by K. A. Pital »

That is a hijack, Shep, even if I agree with you that for $500 billion you could and should done far better; after all, other nations have scarcely $40-50 billion to boot.
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