Romney 2012: Just the beginning

[Kodiak]

I just got this e-mail in my inbox, and I thought I'd share it. The race for 2012 has begun

Subject: This is just the beginning…

I never anticipated a growth this large for this group, but it amazes and encourages me. Facebook only allows groups with less than 5,000 members to send out messages to all members, so this will be the only message I send all of you.

First of all, thank you for choosing to stand with us in united behind the best conservative candidate in the Republican Party. Republicans across the country suffered embarrassing defeats on Tuesday, but as Harvey Dent once said, “The night is darkest just before the dawn. And I promise you, the dawn is coming.”

It’s true that we will have to wait until 2012 for Mitt Romney to Bring America Back. However, Tuesday was a wake-up call to all parts of the conservative movement. We will see a grassroots explosion from conservatives that hasn’t been witnessed by the United States since 1980. Democrats now control all branches of government, the majority of governorships, and will probably be able to appoint at least one judge to the Supreme Court. This will not go over well, and we must be ready to fight back starting in 2010 with the vitally important midterm elections and then ultimately in 2012 when we take back our country from the miserable state it may be in from the devastating effect of unchecked liberal policies.

What specifically can we do? We must take all of the fear and anger that many people feel and turn it into something productive. We must write letters to the editor of newspapers, magazines, and leave comments on blogs about the future of our nation and whom is best to lead. We need to make videos like this and post them on Youtube and other sites. We need to study all of the issues affecting our country so we have knowledgeable comments to make when we discuss America’s future with our family, friends, and neighbors. We need to write our representatives in our state and our representatives in Washington and explain to them that we will not support many of the policies they are planning.

Finally, please INVITE every conservative and Republican you know to this group! Together, this can be just the beginning of Bringing America Back!

For those of you who don't want to sit through the video, it's his concession speech highlights set to upbeat music and positive imagery at the end. I for one would welcome another Romney campaign.

[Strider]

Welcome to the Third Millennium: the time of the perpetual election cycle is upon us.

[Anguirus]

I wonder how well Obama would have to do in his first term to convince some of these guys that we aren't in "darkest night." He'd probably have to miracle-fix all the problems caused by the last eight years...which doesn't seem likely.

I can see a Romney-Obama 2012 as driving a wedge right down the middle of the evangelicals. For all their rhetoric (and occasional racism), I think many of them consider prosperity more important than economic conservatism: witness the rise of Huckabee. In addition, Romney is a Mormon and cheerfully has shifted his positions on abortion and gay people for his own political convenience, and many of them don't like either of those, either. Therefore, Romney's success against Obama is only likely if the next four years are dreadful and the economic conservatives manage to get a big swathe of the Mindless Middle convinced that it's because Obama's a damnsocialist.

Conversely, if Obama fixes health care, Romney will be the next Bob Dole.

I do think that Romney is a more likely candidate than Sarah Palin. The recent revelations about the end of the campaign have probably ruined her political career for good, as not even all of the fundamentalist whackos will vote for someone perceived as an incompetent.

[Kodiak]

I do think that Romney is a more likely candidate than Sarah Palin. The recent revelations about the end of the campaign have probably ruined her political career for good, as not even all of the fundamentalist whackos will vote for someone perceived as an incompetent.

When faced with choosing between an incompetent and a Mormon, many fundamentalists would sadly choose an incompetent.

[Duckie]

Further, Romney is a Mormon and he thus will fail at getting Evangelicals unless Obama heavily pushes abortion and gay marriage issues. Compared to Huckabee, Romney would be easysauce- any race that's close between Romney and Obama would be a landslide Republican win for anyone else.

[Panzer Grenadier]

I love people who quote the Dark Knight in political emails...

[Lancer]

Romney was fairly moderate in the past, which worked against him in the primaries despite his best efforts to redefine himself. Between that and being Mormon, he will probably get rejected by the conservative base of the party, so a close race would almost certainly have to mean that he's going against the current and drawing on the support of Independents and GOP moderates who have been alienated by the Republican party.

I have severe doubts about the ability of any candidate who manages to secure the backing of GOP hardliners to do the same.

[ArcturusMengsk]

Obama would eat Romney alive. Rarely before have I seen a politician whose entire personality is so put-on that it actually becomes part of his personality.

[Anguirus]

I'm certainly not saying that the fundies who love Palin and Huckabee aren't influential, but the people who make the real decisions in the GOP are a mix of neocons and hardcore laissez-faire economists. After McCain got landslided despite the naked sop to the fundies that was Sarah Palin, they may decide that it's more important to appeal to the middle (in much the same way as the Democrats tend to do whenever they've failed). I expect a serious fight in the GOP primary between Huckabee and Romney, or in any case between the Christofascist and the big business wings of the party, but I think that if any side will win control will be the latter. If Dobson and friends are butt-hurt enough to form a third party or something, all it will do is marginalize them for the next generation or three.

I think the lesson here is that simple fearmongering and pandering to the troglodytes is not enough. America just elected a black man named Hussein to the White House in a landslide. The racist hicks are not strong enough to count on. And hence my main point is: Obama can lose in 2012 if the economy doesn't get any better. That way, Big Business can blame it on his "socialism" and the racists/loons/warmongers don't require any courting...they already don't like him. However, the Republicans then must necessarily put up a candidate who can be convincing on the economy. No know-nothing warmongers, no Christian whack-a-loon dumbasses. Obama will only have an easier time crushing them as an incumbent.

Feel free to call this anecdotal evidence, but among my Republican acquaintances there is a powerful hatred for Obama that has nothing to do with race or religion. They think he's a naive fool (no evidence can convince them otherwise) whose only talent is puppetmastering the youth and black vote. They honestly think that he will ruin the economy (more) and that he will weaken the nation by gutting the military. If we aren't better off in four years, these people will be the ones saying that they were right all along, and they will have an easy time convincing the middle that all of the deregulation since 1980 didn't go far enough, and Obama's re-regulation and tax plan just made matters worse. Romney is just the kind of guy these people can prop up and say "hey, we'd have been so much better off if Romney had won the primary and not that old loser."

[Lord Relvenous]

Romney did have some success financially in Massachusetts and the 2002 Olympics, IIRC. He'd definately be able to use that to convince people to support him if the economy doesn't have much of a turn around.

[Gil Hamilton]

I love these sorts of emails:

Conservatives in 2004: "Liberals, please. George Bush won, accept it, it's not the end of the world."
Conservatives in 2008: "OUR GUY LOST! IT'S THE END OF THE FUCKING WORLD!"

[General Zod]

Feel free to call this anecdotal evidence, but among my Republican acquaintances there is a powerful hatred for Obama that has nothing to do with race or religion. They think he's a naive fool (no evidence can convince them otherwise) whose only talent is puppetmastering the youth and black vote. They honestly think that he will ruin the economy (more) and that he will weaken the nation by gutting the military. If we aren't better off in four years, these people will be the ones saying that they were right all along, and they will have an easy time convincing the middle that all of the deregulation since 1980 didn't go far enough, and Obama's re-regulation and tax plan just made matters worse. Romney is just the kind of guy these people can prop up and say "hey, we'd have been so much better off if Romney had won the primary and not that old loser."

Let me guess, these people are "blue collar workers".

[RedImperator]

It is way too early to start speculating on 2012. There are way too many variables. How successful will Obama's first term be? Who's going to win the upcoming civil war in the Republican Party? What will the 2010 midterms look like? What will the economy look like in four years? How will the next four years go for other Republican rising stars--will Bobby Jindal get reelected? Will Sarah Palin? Will some young hotshot come out of nowhere? Will the base demand even more ideological purity in 2012, or will they be so desperate to win they'll accept a moderate (not likely, if history is anything to go by).

In 1964, who thought Richard Nixon would be the next Republican nominee? In 1984, who thought Michael Dukakis was next? Who predicted Bill Clinton in 1988? Or George W. Bush, in 1996? In 2000, if you asked who the next Democratic nominee would be, a second attempt by Al Gore looked a hell of a lot more likely than John Kerry. Et cetera. There are probably dozens of Republicans out there right now who think they have chance to win the big chair in four years, and it's going to take a long time to sift even the longshots out from the no-shots, let alone the frontrunners.

[The Romulan Republic]

True, we don't really know, but if I had to bet now, my money would be on Palin, Huckabee, and Romney battling it out. Palin and Huckabee split the Christian evangelical vote, and Romney takes the nomination on a fiscal conservatism platform.

Which is fine by me. I hope it happens. Romney's hardly the strongest candadite in the world. And I would appreciate the historical irony of Obama kicking his ass, given the Mormon church's historical views on africans.

[Anguirus]

Let me guess, these people are "blue collar workers".

More like young Randroids. You'd be surprised how many college students think that lowering all taxes and increasing military spending will solve all our problems. And then they complain about being marginalized because 70-80% of people who get an education use it to come to pretty much opposite conclusions, so they become more vocal and entrenched in their opinions as a response.

I find that the very idea of one changing one's opinion through logical argument is foreign to most people. They start with an opinion and they feel that if they do not maintain it, the other guy wins.

[CmdrWilkens]

I'm certainly not saying that the fundies who love Palin and Huckabee aren't influential, but the people who make the real decisions in the GOP are a mix of neocons and hardcore laissez-faire economists. After McCain got landslided despite the naked sop to the fundies that was Sarah Palin, they may decide that it's more important to appeal to the middle (in much the same way as the Democrats tend to do whenever they've failed). I expect a serious fight in the GOP primary between Huckabee and Romney, or in any case between the Christofascist and the big business wings of the party, but I think that if any side will win control will be the latter. If Dobson and friends are butt-hurt enough to form a third party or something, all it will do is marginalize them for the next generation or three.

Without getting too deep into it the leadership of the party RIGHT NOW may be principally the neocons and neoliberal economists but with the bloodbath coming there is no garuntee they will remain on top. The evangelical socially conservative voters have been the foot soldiers of the conservative movement in much the same way that black and union voters have been the foot soldiers of the Democrats for years. The thing is that while they have generally demanded platitudes in the primaries before they've generally turned out on election day regqardless of track record (see GW Bush 2004, he had done almost nothing at that point for the evangelical cause and they still turned out). This eleciton and the consistent lukewarm response to McCan until he pulled out a VP form the fundie base is indicative of the kind of ideological purity they are calling for. Huckabee had no chance of winning without them and the fact that he did so on a shoestring budget is telling of the way that the christian right is starting to throw their weight around.

4 years ago the Democratic Leadership was staffed mostly by DLC-types and the beleif that the same playbook of southern democrats running as Republican light was the way to go. Then the netroots campaigns got Dean in the drivers seat and began shifting the party. I think the evangelicals are starting to think they should do the same to the Republican party.

In turn this will mean at least two years of bloody inter-party warfare as the neocon/neoliberals battle the theocons for control of the party apparatus both at the RNC and within the Congressional delegations (Ensign will be out at the NRSC, the NRCC was a joke, McConnell may have survived the battle but that's no garuntee and Bohner is probably at risk for a challenge from the right like Shadegg). We won't even know the shape of the Republican primary ground until sometime after the mid-terms. Obama's candidacy may have lasted forever but it was shaped by the response to the 2006 mid-terms, in the same way the next republican candidate will be shaped by the 2010 midterms. If its another loss for the (R)s then you can bet the primary season will make this last one look tame but if a paticular faction emerges with momentum then look for a moderately well known 50something governor or senator associated with that faction to become the nominee.

[Anguirus]

^ Part of me hopes you're right. Color me optimistic, but I can't see a truly hardcore fundie-controlled party gaining enough support from the middle to topple an incumbent Obama. Moreover, as strong as they seem now, their movement is ill-favored demographically. As I understand it, young people are much more likely to believe that other religions and gay people have value. I think that in a generation we'll see the fundamentalists split into a super-hardcore rump and a much more moderate majority that's more willing to compromise.

[Duckie]

Young people in california voted 66%-33% against Proposition 8, compared to middle aged persons whom voted slightly against, and the elderly who were the opposite. Any virulently anti-gay fundamentalist will thus probably lose the young people vote and of course the small but significant gay vote.

[Samuel]

Young people in california voted 66%-33% against Proposition 8, compared to middle aged persons whom voted slightly against, and the elderly who were the opposite. Any virulently anti-gay fundamentalist will thus probably lose the young people vote and of course the small but significant gay vote.

As always, it is a wait until the older generation dies. Of course, I'm curious about the third that voted for prop 8- do we have that many fundies in California? Is it tough guys? Where did that group come from?

[Duckie]

Young people in california voted 66%-33% against Proposition 8, compared to middle aged persons whom voted slightly against, and the elderly who were the opposite. Any virulently anti-gay fundamentalist will thus probably lose the young people vote and of course the small but significant gay vote.

As always, it is a wait until the older generation dies. Of course, I'm curious about the third that voted for prop 8- do we have that many fundies in California? Is it tough guys? Where did that group come from?

Mostly minorities, such as hispanics and blacks- blacks of all ages voted 70-30 to send gays to the back of the bus. I'm not sure why, but I think it's a cultural thing. Also a lack of education and knowing gay people, which helps one see them as human beings.

[Imperial Overlord]

Mostly minorities, such as hispanics and blacks- blacks of all ages voted 70-30 to send gays to the back of the bus. I'm not sure why, but I think it's a cultural thing. Also a lack of education and knowing gay people, which helps one see them as human beings.

Both blacks and Hispanics tend to be church going and socially conservative (to generalize really broadly).

[Mayabird]

Mostly minorities, such as hispanics and blacks- blacks of all ages voted 70-30 to send gays to the back of the bus. I'm not sure why, but I think it's a cultural thing. Also a lack of education and knowing gay people, which helps one see them as human beings.

Both blacks and Hispanics tend to be church going and socially conservative (to generalize really broadly).

There's also, as I've mentioned before, the whole machismo culture among lower class men (and let's be blunt: there are a disproportionate number of minorities in the lower class). Gotta put up a huge show of being manly and macho, and "girly men" aren't manly and macho so they get oppressed.

[Erik von Nein]

As always, it is a wait until the older generation dies. Of course, I'm curious about the third that voted for prop 8- do we have that many fundies in California? Is it tough guys? Where did that group come from?

California is far from being the San Francisco Bay Area and Las Angeles. There's huge swaths of industrial and agricultural area that is largely conservative, with a pretty big amount of them being fundy-land Christians.

There's a few sites out there that shows the breakdown of voters by county for California. Check it out to see which is which.

[Glocksman]

True.
If Orange County had voted 'no' on Prop 8, I probably would have had a heart attack due to the shock.

[Ender]

As always, it is a wait until the older generation dies. Of course, I'm curious about the third that voted for prop 8- do we have that many fundies in California? Is it tough guys? Where did that group come from?

California is far from being the San Francisco Bay Area and Las Angeles. There's huge swaths of industrial and agricultural area that is largely conservative, with a pretty big amount of them being fundy-land Christians.

There's a few sites out there that shows the breakdown of voters by county for California. Check it out to see which is which.

Best one I saw had a breakdown of counties that voted yes on 8 and counties that voted for bush in 2004. They were almost identical.