Right-wingers think Obama seeks ban on Space Shuttle.

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Right-wingers think Obama seeks ban on Space Shuttle.

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WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Barack Obama's pledge to seek a worldwide ban on weapons in space marks a dramatic shift in U.S. policy while posing the tricky issue of defining whether a satellite can be a weapon.

Moments after Obama's inauguration last week, the White House website was updated to include policy statements on a range of issues, including a pledge to restore U.S. leadership on space issues and seek a worldwide ban on weapons that interfere with military and commercial satellites.

It also promised to look at threats to U.S. satellites, contingency plans to keep information flowing from them, and what steps are needed to protect spacecraft against attack.

The issue is being closely watched by Lockheed Martin Corp, Boeing Co, Northrop Grumman Corp, the biggest U.S. defense contractors, and other companies involved in military and civilian space contracts.

Watchdog groups and even some defense officials welcomed the statement, which echoed Obama's campaign promises, but said it would take time to hammer out a comprehensive new strategy.

Enacting a global ban on space weapons could prove even harder.

For instance, it was difficult to define exactly what constituted a "weapon" because even seemingly harmless weather tracking satellites could be used to slam into and disable other satellites, said two U.S. officials involved in the area who were not authorized to speak publicly.

Michael Krepon, co-founder of the private Henry L. Stimson think tank on space, cited recent reports that the Pentagon was using two smaller satellites launched in 2006 to fly near a dead missile-warning satellite and investigate what happened. The Defense Support Program satellite, DSP-23, built by Northrop, failed on orbit in mid-September.

"This incident clarified how important it is to have rules of the road for technologies that could have many different applications," Krepon said. "There are lots of benign reasons to have a closer look at an object in space. But we all know that when satellites make close passes they could also do things that are not benign."

Two years ago, China used a missile to destroy one of its own satellites in a test that raised worries about a new arms race in space. The incident may have created thousands of pieces of debris. Last year, the United States also destroyed one of its own satellites, saying its toxic fuel tank could pose a danger if it fell to Earth.

MORE COOPERATION?

A defense official, who also asked not to be named, said the Obama administration had not yet held briefings for top officials working on military space issues, but it was clear that the focus would shift toward more diplomatic initiatives.

Work on classified projects involving an "active" military response to attacks against U.S. satellites might be halted in favor of more monitoring and passive protection measures, he said. He declined to give any more details.

The Obama administration also faces tough decisions on many multibillion-dollar satellite programs facing cost overruns and schedule delays, particularly at a time when rapid increases in military spending are grinding to a halt.

"There's still a lot of wiggle room" in the administration's statement on military space, said analyst Victoria Samson with the private Center for Defense Information. "But just the sheer fact that they are discussing it represents a real shift from the Bush administration."

"It's not going to happen immediately, but it seems as though the wheels are in motion to initiate some sort of cooperative measure," Samson said.

Another defense official, who asked not to be named, said the new administration would work through the complex military space issues during a defense review to be completed by September, and as part of a space report due in December.

The new policy language used by the Obama administration was "impossibly broad," the official said. It also failed to acknowledge recent work by U.S. officials on guidelines for space debris and conduct by nations active in space.

Even Obama acknowledged during his election campaign that achieving a global treaty banning weapons in space could be a daunting challenge. A simpler and quicker solution, he suggested at that time, might be a "code of conduct for responsible space-faring nations."

In response to questions from the Council for a Livable World, Obama said one key element of any such code would be "a prohibition against harmful interference against satellites."
Reason for my title? I'll let General Chilton, STRATCOM commander speak:
"Let’s say you build a craft capable of pulling alongside a satellite, extending a robotic arm, and plucking the satellite’s solar panels off, thereby disabling it. Would you consider that a space weapon? Well, if so, that would mean the U.S. space shuttle is a space weapon."
<Misleading title altered to add "Right-wingers think" at the beginning - DW>
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Re: Obama seeks ban on Space Shuttle.

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This reads like a lot of scaremongering or hyperbole. Isn't the space shuttle set to retire in the next few years anyway?
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Re: Obama seeks ban on Space Shuttle.

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No it's not. Anything can be a "space weapon". I could go into orbit on a SOYUZ capsule, put on a space suit, open a hatch; and toss a wrench to disable a satellite.
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Re: Obama seeks ban on Space Shuttle.

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They also pointed out that even a weather satellite could potentially be construed as a space weapon, and I think it's pretty obvious that Obama will not ban weather satellites.
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Re: Obama seeks ban on Space Shuttle.

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Work on classified projects involving an "active" military response to attacks against U.S. satellites might be halted in favor of more monitoring and passive protection measures, he said.
"More monitoring and passive protection measures"? What the hell does that even mean? Attaching jets to your satellites so they can try to move out of the path of an enemy satellite-killer should one come along? All the monitoring in the world won't save your satellite from someone shooting it down unless you have a counter-measure (but that doesn't sound like a "passive protection measure").
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Re: Obama seeks ban on Space Shuttle.

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Darth Wong wrote:They also pointed out that even a weather satellite could potentially be construed as a space weapon, and I think it's pretty obvious that Obama will not ban weather satellites.
And that's why attempting to ban "weapons in space" is a silly and futile idea. Any object launched into orbit is a potential weapon against existing satellites.
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Re: Obama seeks ban on Space Shuttle.

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MKSheppard wrote:No it's not. Anything can be a "space weapon". I could go into orbit on a SOYUZ capsule, put on a space suit, open a hatch; and toss a wrench to disable a satellite.
You know you just killed your chances of ever getting into space just now, right? :)

Have a very nice day.
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Re: Obama seeks ban on Space Shuttle.

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Yeah right, and a shovel is a deadly weapon on par with a machine gun because you could club someone to death with it. Come on, this is the kind of idiot logic NRA fundamentalists use to claim 'you can't ban guns without banning screwdrivers and steak knives', the intent is clear and it isn't that hard to come up with a reasonable definition.
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Re: Obama seeks ban on Space Shuttle.

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Starglider wrote:Yeah right, and a shovel is a deadly weapon on par with a machine gun because you could club someone to death with it. Come on, this is the kind of idiot logic NRA fundamentalists use to claim 'you can't ban guns without banning screwdrivers and steak knives', the intent is clear and it isn't that hard to come up with a reasonable definition.
That's not really anogalous at all. Far from the difference in lethality between a shovel and machinegun, even a lowly weather satellite can indeed be virtually as lethal as any purpose built sat-killer, provided you simply have a launch vehicle that can get it into space with sufficient accuracy so that it's orbit precisely intersects that of another satellite at the right time, which frankly isn't all that difficult, given how well-known and predictable the orbits of existing satellites are, you could meticulously plan the launch months in advance. Come to think of it, we could simply dispense with the satellite and use the upper stage of the rocket (or alternatetivly, put a bunch of little weather satellites on the same rocket to increase the PK). The only way our killer upper-stage would fail where a purpose made kill-sat might succeed is if the target is able to detect the collision coming and automatically maneuver out of the way, and I can't think of any satellites that can actually do that.
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Re: Obama seeks ban on Space Shuttle.

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MKSheppard wrote:No it's not. Anything can be a "space weapon". I could go into orbit on a SOYUZ capsule, put on a space suit, open a hatch; and toss a wrench to disable a satellite.
Hyperbole does not an argument make.
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Re: Obama seeks ban on Space Shuttle.

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Idiot wrote:The new policy language used by the Obama administration was "impossibly broad," the official said.
Oh no, Obama's very early proposal which exists only as vague statement somewhere might in some way infringe upon the prerogative of the Pentagon to attempt develop any weapons system for any purpose it can think of? This is a huge deal! We should immediately interpret it in the most misleading way possible!

Honestly, this is like taking the most preliminary policy letters that eventually, after years of tweaking and negotiation, led to SALT, and wildly extrapolating to assume that Nixon wanted to eliminate all strategic weapons of any kind. It's fucking sad is what it is.
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Re: Obama seeks ban on Space Shuttle.

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Patrick Degan wrote:Hyperbole does not an argument make.
Then prove that a space suited astronaut cannot do serious damage to a satellite with common hand tools.
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Re: Obama seeks ban on Space Shuttle.

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MKSheppard wrote:
Patrick Degan wrote:Hyperbole does not an argument make.
Then prove that a space suited astronaut cannot do serious damage to a satellite with common hand tools.
Are you seriously demanding proof of a negative?
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Re: Obama seeks ban on Space Shuttle.

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Pablo Sanchez wrote:Oh no, Obama's very early proposal which exists only as vague statement somewhere might in some way infringe upon the prerogative of the Pentagon to attempt develop any weapons system for any purpose it can think of? This is a huge deal! We should immediately interpret it in the most misleading way possible!
It's a huge issue if it cripples American Space Capabilities for the next decade or so. You think everyone else is going to go "oh noes! the Americans signed a treaty banning weaponization of space, I guess we better obey it, despite the fact that America's huge technological edge over our enemies is due to space assets. So Comrade Yuri, stop trying to mount that Nudelmann-Richter 30mm cannon on a Soyuz. It's illegal now."
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Re: Obama seeks ban on Space Shuttle.

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Patrick Degan wrote:
MKSheppard wrote:No it's not. Anything can be a "space weapon". I could go into orbit on a SOYUZ capsule, put on a space suit, open a hatch; and toss a wrench to disable a satellite.
Hyperbole does not an argument make.
Degan, with a hammer and no keys, I can hole all four tires of a car, open the trunk and steal/destroy the contents, break all the windows and gain access to the interior, open the hood and rip out all the hoses and electrics, smash the stereo, do superficial but wide-ranging damage to the body panels, and rip off pieces and then drop them into the engine, rendering it nonfunctional without a complete rebuild.

Now, what part of the analogy fails? It's not the hammer, which is a common hand tool. I could use a wrench as easily, if you prefer. It's not the object to be destroyed; a car is LUDICROUSLY more heavily built than a satellite (which, in 1g, must be handled with special cradles so that its own weight does not destroy it). It's not the premise; even with warning, it would take any nation on earth hours to respond to such an attack. And it's not my own presence - men have walked in space, and both the American and Russian space programs have matched orbits and spacewalked with other objects.

Would you like to explain why the idea of a dude with a wrench, whacking the shit out of a satellite, is outside the realm of possibility?
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Re: Obama seeks ban on Space Shuttle.

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MKSheppard wrote:
Pablo Sanchez wrote:Oh no, Obama's very early proposal which exists only as vague statement somewhere might in some way infringe upon the prerogative of the Pentagon to attempt develop any weapons system for any purpose it can think of? This is a huge deal! We should immediately interpret it in the most misleading way possible!
It's a huge issue if it cripples American Space Capabilities for the next decade or so. You think everyone else is going to go "oh noes! the Americans signed a treaty banning weaponization of space, I guess we better obey it, despite the fact that America's huge technological edge over our enemies is due to space assets. So Comrade Yuri, stop trying to mount that Nudelmann-Richter 30mm cannon on a Soyuz. It's illegal now."
That's why weapons control treaties have inspection requirements. Back to the thread title I still don't see Obama wanting to ban the space shuttle. His administration made a general statement that he wanted to ban weapons in space. Someone pointed out that the proposal might be so broad as ban the space shuttle. I don't see how a preliminary statement about wanting a treaty means that exact language would be used in a treaty, or that the statement is evidence Obama has any particular animus towards the space program.
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Re: Obama seeks ban on Space Shuttle.

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Posner wrote:That's why weapons control treaties have inspection requirements.
That's nice. Except you can just give the astronaut a rifle that he can fire out the airlock; instant satelite killer, particularly with explosive bullets. How are you going to "inspect" against that?
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Re: Obama seeks ban on Space Shuttle.

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This idea wouldn’t just ban the space shuttle; if it was to have any meaning it would mean banning any and all attempts to provide national missile defence and missile defence for Western Europe. It would also rule out a fucking lot of even our theater and tactical missile defence systems, because all of them shoot into space and can be used as ASAT weapons already. You cannot have a more brain dead idea then a ban of a weapon in which verification is fundamentally impossible. The Soviets cheated on something as simple as the INF treaty, cheating on a space weapons ban is so trivial as to barely require effort.

Meanwhile we have retired a huge number of not only weapons, but also strategic communications and early warning assets all because of the assumption that our spacecraft can do the jobs instead. Openly committing to leaving them defenseless is insane, and hopefully Obama will have some

Weapons bans only work if everyone wants them to work, see the Washington Naval Treaty. No one has any reason to NOT want to be able to attack the US’s enormous array of space assets, so everyone whose a real threat will just cheat on it.
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Re: Obama seeks ban on Space Shuttle.

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MKSheppard wrote:
Posner wrote:That's why weapons control treaties have inspection requirements.
That's nice. Except you can just give the astronaut a rifle that he can fire out the airlock; instant satelite killer, particularly with explosive bullets. How are you going to "inspect" against that?
Or just orbit a weather satellite with a camera that looks for clouds, completely illegitimate. Place it in the same orbit as a US early warning satellite and when war comes, point the camera at the America bird and use it to fly into the thing. Of course, plenty of nations will just refuse to sign the treaty, or better yet they’ll sign it, wait for the US to ratify it, then not ratify.

Course, one of the major means of ASAT, actually used by the Soviets in the Cold War at times to prevent us from beaming data from spy transmitters inside the Soviet Union, is plain old jamming. Jam the fuck out of the command links the satellites rely on to pass data to the ground. If space weapons are banned then someone can just park a jammer by anything important we have and turn it on at will, and we’d have no assets to destroy it with.

And yeah, people might want to take a look at the Washington and London Naval treaties to see how well arms limitations work in a multilateral world. If not for the damn treaties Japan would have never been even remotely able to think about attacking the US, but the treaties ensured they had over 70% of our strength, instead of the 10-20% it should have been. The result was a war that killed millions, and could have been completely deterred by a proper ally portioned US navy.
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Re: Obama seeks ban on Space Shuttle.

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erik_t wrote:
Patrick Degan wrote:
MKSheppard wrote:No it's not. Anything can be a "space weapon". I could go into orbit on a SOYUZ capsule, put on a space suit, open a hatch; and toss a wrench to disable a satellite.
Hyperbole does not an argument make.
Degan, with a hammer and no keys, I can hole all four tires of a car, open the trunk and steal/destroy the contents, break all the windows and gain access to the interior, open the hood and rip out all the hoses and electrics, smash the stereo, do superficial but wide-ranging damage to the body panels, and rip off pieces and then drop them into the engine, rendering it nonfunctional without a complete rebuild.
That's nice. It's also a red herring and a very obvious one. Even you should be able to distinguish between a device specifically crafted to inflict physical damage upon an object and something which is improvised out of anything you care to name and, in the example you give, with some considerable degree of individual effort.
Now, what part of the analogy fails? It's not the hammer, which is a common hand tool. I could use a wrench as easily, if you prefer. It's not the object to be destroyed; a car is LUDICROUSLY more heavily built than a satellite (which, in 1g, must be handled with special cradles so that its own weight does not destroy it). It's not the premise; even with warning, it would take any nation on earth hours to respond to such an attack. And it's not my own presence - men have walked in space, and both the American and Russian space programs have matched orbits and spacewalked with other objects.

Would you like to explain why the idea of a dude with a wrench, whacking the shit out of a satellite, is outside the realm of possibility?
For a start, it's horribly impractical to send up a capsule just to deliver a spacesuited man next to a satellite (just in terms of justifying the fuel expenditure) to "whack the shit out of it" with a wrench —a task which is a lot more difficult in zero-g than a lot of people suspect. So sure, it's not "outside the realm of possibility". The same thing can be said about planning my future financial security upon winning the Powerball each time I buy a ticket. In other words, impractical to the point of meaninglessness.
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Re: Obama seeks ban on Space Shuttle.

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Good. The more weapons the US bans, the greater time we have to devise countermeasures for those weapons when they will finally be implemented.
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Re: Obama seeks ban on Space Shuttle.

Post by erik_t »

Patrick Degan wrote:
erik_t wrote:Degan, with a hammer and no keys, I can hole all four tires of a car, open the trunk and steal/destroy the contents, break all the windows and gain access to the interior, open the hood and rip out all the hoses and electrics, smash the stereo, do superficial but wide-ranging damage to the body panels, and rip off pieces and then drop them into the engine, rendering it nonfunctional without a complete rebuild.
That's nice. It's also a red herring and a very obvious one. Even you should be able to distinguish between a device specifically crafted to inflict physical damage upon an object and something which is improvised out of anything you care to name and, in the example you give, with some considerable degree of individual effort.
Wait, I'm sorry, you can't improvise a hammer? Really? That's the best you can come up with? Have you told the apes?
Now, what part of the analogy fails? It's not the hammer, which is a common hand tool. I could use a wrench as easily, if you prefer. It's not the object to be destroyed; a car is LUDICROUSLY more heavily built than a satellite (which, in 1g, must be handled with special cradles so that its own weight does not destroy it). It's not the premise; even with warning, it would take any nation on earth hours to respond to such an attack. And it's not my own presence - men have walked in space, and both the American and Russian space programs have matched orbits and spacewalked with other objects.

Would you like to explain why the idea of a dude with a wrench, whacking the shit out of a satellite, is outside the realm of possibility?
For a start, it's horribly impractical to send up a capsule just to deliver a spacesuited man next to a satellite (just in terms of justifying the fuel expenditure) to "whack the shit out of it" with a wrench —a task which is a lot more difficult in zero-g than a lot of people suspect. So sure, it's not "outside the realm of possibility". The same thing can be said about planning my future financial security upon winning the Powerball each time I buy a ticket. In other words, impractical to the point of meaninglessness.
I'm sure the folks who spend weeks rehearsing activity in NASA's neutral buoyancy tank would love to hear that satellites are durable little critters that can be manhandled and roughhoused with like a large dog. I think they've been operating under a different assumption.

As to fuel cost, it'd take about 150 tons of fuel to put a man up there to rendezvous with whatever LEO satellite you choose, using technology that the Soviet Union could reliably build in the late 1950s. The unit cost of a SM-3 is on the order of ten million dollars, never mind the cost of the cruiser to put it in launch position or the radar aboard used to guide it. That'd pay for your fuel on the order of $100-200/gallon, by the way.

Please explain to me why one is practical and the other is not. I've worked in the space launch vehicle industry, but I'm apparently not as knowledgeable as you.
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Re: Obama seeks ban on Space Shuttle.

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erik_t wrote:As to fuel cost, it'd take about 150 tons of fuel to put a man up there to rendezvous with whatever LEO satellite you choose, using technology that the Soviet Union could reliably build in the late 1950s. The unit cost of a SM-3 is on the order of ten million dollars, never mind the cost of the cruiser to put it in launch position or the radar aboard used to guide it. That'd pay for your fuel on the order of $100-200/gallon, by the way.
Also, the Cruiser can only really blow away the satellite and scatter the orbital plane with debris. An astronaut in orbit can assess the situation, then pick the most approrpiate tool at hand to destroy the sattelite without contaminating the orbital with debris. A nice can of spray paint would do nicely for the solar panels/camera optics.
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K. A. Pital
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Re: Obama seeks ban on Space Shuttle.

Post by K. A. Pital »

erik_t wrote:The unit cost of a SM-3 is on the order of ten million dollars
So is a manned launch which will require carriers with over 6 ton lift ability. The manned launch only has meaning if you are launching a dedicated weapons platform which will be there in space for a long time and have the capability to destroy a great many satellites (without getting destroyed itself). Else, there is no superiority vs. an ASAT missile..
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erik_t
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Re: Obama seeks ban on Space Shuttle.

Post by erik_t »

Stas Bush wrote:
erik_t wrote:The unit cost of a SM-3 is on the order of ten million dollars
So is a manned launch which will require carriers with over 6 ton lift ability. The manned launch only has meaning if you are launching a dedicated weapons platform which will be there in space for a long time and have the capability to destroy a great many satellites (without getting destroyed itself). Else, there is no superiority vs. an ASAT missile..
2.7 tons for Vostok, but yes. ASAT is of course superior if all you want to do is kill a satellite - in that case, you require, oh, a few kg of LEO lift capacity (just enough to blow the shit out of it). Sending a man obviously costs more (at least if you want to bring him back). The relevant point is that it's been done many, many times for not a shit-ton of money.

I'm not taking a side here; I'm only annoyed by Degan's avoidance of a point.
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