Continental Flight 3407 Crashes In New York

[FSTargetDrone]

No survivors...

February 13, 2009
Plane crash in upstate NY kills 49 people
By JOHN WAWROW

A commuter plane crashed into a suburban Buffalo home and erupted in flames late Thursday, killing all 48 people aboard and one person on the ground, authorities said.

Flames silhouetted the shattered home after Continental Connection Flight 3407 plummeted into it around 10:20 p.m.

"The whole sky was lit up orange," said Bob Dworak, who lives less than a mile from the crash site. "All the sudden, there was a big bang, and the house shook."

The 74-seat Q400 Bombardier aircraft, operated by Colgan Air, was flying from Newark Liberty International Airport in New Jersey to Buffalo Niagara International Airport in light snow, fog and 17 mph winds.

Dworak said while residents of his neighborhood about 10 miles from the Buffalo airport were used to planes rumbling overhead, but this one sounded louder than usual, sputtered and made some odd noises. After hearing the crash, he drove over to take a look, and "all we were seeing was 50 to 100 foot flames and a pile of rubble on the ground. It looked like the house just got destroyed the instant it got hit," he said.

Witness Tony Tatro said he saw the plane flying low and knew it was in trouble.

"It was not spiraling at all. The left wing was a little low," he told WGRZ-TV.

It was the first fatal crash of a commercial airliner in the United States since Aug. 27, 2006, when 49 people were killed after a Comair jetliner took off from a Lexington, Ky., runway that was too short.

Prior to the crash, the voice of a female pilot on Continental Flight 3407 can be heard communicating with air traffic controllers, according to a recording of the Buffalo air traffic control's radio messages shortly before the crash captured by the Web site +http://www.liveatc.net. Neither the controller nor the pilot exchange any concerns that anything is out of the ordinary as the airplane is asked to fly at 2,300 feet.

A minute later, the controller tries to contact the plane but hears no response. After a pause, he tries to contact the plane again.

Then the controller asks the pilot of a nearby Delta Air Lines plane to see if he can see the Continental flight.

"Delta 1998, look off your right side about 5 miles for a Dash 8 about 2,300 (feet). You see anything there?" he asks.

"Uh, negative," the Delta pilot says.

Houston-based Continental Airlines issued a statement saying that preliminary information showed the plane carried 44 passengers and a crew of four.

"At this time, the full resources of Colgan Air's accident response team are being mobilized and will be devoted to cooperating with all authorities responding to the accident and to contacting family members and providing assistance to them," the statement said.

Chris Kausner, believing his sister was on the plane, rushed to a hastily established command center after calling his vacationing mother in Florida to break the news.

"To tell you the truth, I heard my mother make a noise on the phone that I've never heard before. So not good, not good," he told reporters.

Clarence emergency control director Dave Bissonette said the crash killed one person on the ground.

Manassas, Va.-based Colgan did not immediately return telephone calls. The Federal Aviation Administration had no immediate comment.

Twelve homes were evacuated near the crash site, about 10 miles from the airport. The tail or part of a wing was visible through flames and thick smoke that engulfed the scene.

Two women believed to be residents of the neighborhood were being treated at Millard Fillmore Suburban Hospital for what were described as non-life threatening injuries, hospital spokesman Michael Hughes said. They were transported by ambulance approximately 11:35 p.m.

The crash came less than a month after a US Airways pilot guided his crippled plane to a landing in the Hudson River off Manhattan, saving the lives of all 155 people aboard. Birds had apparently disabled both its engines.

On Dec. 20, a Continental Airlines plane veered off a runway and slid into a snowy field at the Denver airport, injuring 38 people.

Continental's release said relatives and friends of those on Flight 3407 who wanted to give or receive information about those on board could telephone a special family assistance number, 1-800-621-3263.

___

Associated Press writers Carolyn Thompson in Buffalo, Linda Franklin in Dallas, Daniel Yee in Atlanta and Cristian Salazar and Jennifer Peltz in New York contributed to this report.

[General Zod]

Without more to go on, it almost sounds like a case of ice trouble that caused it.

[FSTargetDrone]

It's been very windy along the eastern part of the country (gusts of 55+ MPH in parts of Pennsylvania alone--somewhat unusual for the area) most of Thursday so perhaps wind was a factor?

Some images:





The type of aircraft in the accident (not the same one in this accident--the tail may be larger in the particular aircraft that crashed):



It goes without saying, but all the major cable networks are on this story right now and it's about 02:45 here. This happened just after 22:00 Thursday, but I didn't hear about it until after 02:00 this morning.

[Broomstick]

That is uncomfortably close to where my sister lives....

[Broomstick]

The 74-seat Q400 Bombardier aircraft, operated by Colgan Air, was flying from Newark Liberty International Airport in New Jersey to Buffalo Niagara International Airport in light snow, fog and 17 mph winds.

What they call a "clear day" in Buffalo.... No, seriously, they're right next to the Niagara Falls, they kick a lot of moisture into the air. Yes, it could have been ice, but it's way too early to tell, though at first glance the weather fits the profile and the sudden crash close to the airport fits the pattern.

It's been very windy along the eastern part of the country (gusts of 55+ MPH in parts of Pennsylvania alone--somewhat unusual for the area) most of Thursday so perhaps wind was a factor?

Buffalo is pretty far from Pennsylvania. In any case, while 55+ mph might be a factor in landing, that is, touchdown, they wouldn't knock an airplane out of the sky while on approach. If there were gusts of that nature, which I don't think was the case because I'd expect reporters to get that juicy tidbit in, if it were so.

[FSTargetDrone]

Buffalo is pretty far from Pennsylvania. In any case, while 55+ mph might be a factor in landing, that is, touchdown, they wouldn't knock an airplane out of the sky while on approach. If there were gusts of that nature, which I don't think was the case because I'd expect reporters to get that juicy tidbit in, if it were so.

Sorry, it was late when I mentioned wind and I wasn't thinking clearly. What I meant to say was that there were high winds throughout the entire Northeast yesterday:

Cold and gusty winds will continue to howl over the Northeast today. The peak winds that led to widespread destruction, power outages and a few deaths will not be repeated.

However, they were gusting at *only* 25 mph in Buffalo at the time of the crash. As you and Zod said, there were icy conditions:

Icing, Snow, and Wind at the Time of the Crash

2/13/2009 4:53 AM

BREAKING NEWS: Icing, Snow, and Wind at the Time of the Crash

Thursday night, a Continental airplane traveling from Newark, N.J. to Buffalo, N.Y. crashed into a home as it neared its final destination. The plane went down in the small town of Clarence Center, located to the northeast of Buffalo. Initial reports claim 49 people have lost their lives.

Whether or not weather played a role in the crash will soon to be determined by investigators. The upper air information from Buffalo showed very moist and cold conditions aloft which is a condition the leads to icing. Below is the actual upper air conditions taken from Buffalo NWS office prior to the crash.

Winds in Buffalo through the afternoon and evening had been occasionally gusting between 25 and 30 mph. At 10 p.m. EST, around the time of the crash, winds had gusted to 25 mph.

Light snow and rain was also falling as the plane went down. The snow had lowered visibility to 3 miles in Buffalo. Planes landing and taking off about the same time as the crash reported a bit of ice on their wings.

Edit:

Now it seems 50 were killed. 49 on the aircraft and 1 one the ground:

45 passengers, four crew members and one person on the ground were all killed. It was originally reported that 48 passengers were on board, but then it was revealed by Colgan Air that a 49th passenger died in the crash -- an off-duty pilot.

[Broomstick]

If these eye-witness reports are accurate (always a question) it lends more credence to icing being a significant cause.

The Delta flight reported rime icing, a condition in which ice quickly builds up on the leading edge of the wings. A US Airways flight also reported icing

Rime is more a type of ice than a speed of ice build up. On the road, drivers are familiar with rime ice as "black ice" - clear and dense. The report of icing conditions from pilots/flights is reliable.

Witness Tony Tatro was on his way home from the gym when the plane flew about 75 feet above him. The craft's nose was lower than usual and and the left wing was tilted, he told CNN.

"The engines didn't sound typical, didn't sound normal," he said.

The plane was loud as it came in, as if for a takeoff rather than for a landing, said David Luce, who lives 300 feet from the crash site.

"The engines sounded like they were revving at very high speed, an unnatural sound," Luce said.

Ice does two things to an aircraft - it adds weight, and it reduces lift (although rime ice is smooth, the build up does alter the aerodynamic properties of the wing it's on). That means more engine power to maintain level flight, perhaps even full power. If ice continues to build then the only way to maintain enough airspeed to keep flying may be to lower the nose in addition to full engine power (by that time, you're getting seriously screwed). Altered flight characteristics may also result in one or another wing being low. Worst case scenario, the airplane becomes too heavy and/or the lift from the wing is too reduced to maintain flight. The wings stall, and the resulting plunge is quick.

So... early answer looks like "icing". There are a lot of other questions, like how bad were conditions, were anti-icing systems working properly, was the crew acting properly, and so on, and as always NTSB will take their own good time to make a statement.

[Wicked Pilot]

This appears to be the track log for the flight in question. You may need to be a registered user (free) to see it.

The Buffalo METAR was calling light icing from the surface up to 4000ft. The track log terminates about ten minutes before the crash at 5300ft on a radar downwind. The MSA around Buffalo is 3900ft in that quadrant so it's anybody's guess when exactly the crew entered icing conditions. Once passing abeam the IAF the new MSA would have been 2700ft. And once established on final they would have been cleared to 2300ft. Given the reports of light icing and what may have been a relatively brief exposure time I'm kinda hesitant to point the finger there just yet. Even though I'm not rated in that type I think it's safe to assume it would have anti and de-icing systems robust enough to handle what would have been encountered. Say though it was icing, the next question is what kind brought it down. If the witnesses are correct in that the engines where sounding funny (them not being experts one bit on what they should sound like) then that would indicate engine inlet icing which would have effectively starved the turboprops of air.

About the winds, they where being called 240 at 15kts, gusting 22 on the surface. It would have been a bumpy approach but landing in that wouldn't have been a challenge in the slightest.

[Pelranius]

Shit, it's from the same airline and same model as the one which I take to Portland after transfering in Newark. I might have even ridden on it.

My condolences to the families and friends of those lost.

[Wicked Pilot]

Listening to the ATC feed I'm getting more doubts of it being icing. The last radio call was less than 3 miles from the FAF, about 8 miles from the airport, and there didn't seem to be any concern on the pilot's voice. And a pilot report right after the accident indicated icing was only below 3500ft with it being clear on top. A second pilot flying the approach reported a quarter inch from the descent but nothing building on the approach. A third reported clear air beneath 2300ft. Whatever took the aircraft down took appears to have taken it down fast, I just don't see icing under these conditions doing that.

Another very likely possibly would be spacial disorientation, the flight was under instruments and at night. The black boxes will probably be decisive on this one.

[FSTargetDrone]

No transcript yet, but the FAA news conference just reported that after listening to the crew recording, the crew discussed ice buildup on the windshield and wings:

The crew "...noticed significant icing on the windshield and leading edge of the wings..." (just heard that from the FAA representative on the TV conference)

Then, "significant pitch and roll" was detected by the recorders.

[Broomstick]

Given what Wicked said, I still have to wonder if either the anti-icing devices failed, or if the crew reacted properly. Or it could be a combination of weather, mechanical problems, and crew problems.

As I mentioned up-thread, my sister lives in the area (about 8 miles from the crash site) and having been there, you do hear airplanes just about all the time. Although the locals wouldn't be expert, I would expect them to have a idea of what an airplane normally sounds like on approach and to detect a difference. Of course, there is also bias in that they know there has been an accident and they might "remember" something not in accord with actuality. NTSB does like to get eyewitness reports, but do consider that untrained observers may not be entirely accurate.

We'll have to see what turns up. I'm sure the NTSB will let us know in due time.

[Broomstick]

Wow, looks more like a lawndart than usual:

[Kanastrous]

Does the orientation/condition of the tail suggest that they were more-or-less level/pitch down on impact?

[Broomstick]

Well, the fact the top of the tail survived largely intact indicates the airplane hit nose first. Other than that, well, with so much structure destroyed no doubt the tail shifted during the course of the fire. Anything more is speculating, give the picture is small and our information limited.

[FSTargetDrone]

We'll have to see what turns up. I'm sure the NTSB will let us know in due time.

Sorry, that was an NTSB conference I was talking about earlier. Not FAA.

Anyway, some details:

1 hour 45 min 47 sec ago

NTSB: 'significant icing' reported in Continental 3407's final minutes

(NECN/ABC) - NTSB officials have released initial information from the cockpit voice recorder and flight data recorder aboard Continental Connection flight 3407 about the final minutes before the plane crashed outside Buffalo.

An NTSB spokesman said the flight crew reported significant icing on the windshield and leading edge of the wings as the plane descending from an altitude of 16,000 feet Thursday night, and that the deicing system was on. The crew had reported three miles visibility, with snow and mist as they approached the airport.

The crew placed the landing gear down about 1 minute before the crash, and adjusted the flaps for their approach to Buffalo, but then seconds later, the plane experienced "severe pitch and roll conditions."

More information and analysis is expected from the NTSB in the coming days. "We have not ruled anything out," as a cause of the crash, the spokesman said.

The FBI has set up a witness line for anyone who might have seen the plane, at 716-856-7800.

There is a brief video of the above here.

[Wicked Pilot]

That's somewhat of a confusing statement that the 'deicing system was on'. Which one, the leading edge, engine inlet, prop, spinner, windshield, pitot tubes? If it where the leading edges then that's a one shot at a time device. And since it's a boot deicer you have to wait for a somewhat solid layer to form before you break it off. If you activate it prematurely you just form bubbles under the ice and the system becomes ineffective. If you just leave it on it's worthless.

[Ekiqa]

That's somewhat of a confusing statement that the 'deicing system was on'. Which one, the leading edge, engine inlet, prop, spinner, windshield, pitot tubes? If it where the leading edges then that's a one shot at a time device. And since it's a boot deicer you have to wait for a somewhat solid layer to form before you break it off. If you activate it prematurely you just form bubbles under the ice and the system becomes ineffective. If you just leave it on it worthless.

Could the deployment of the landing gear cause a significant enough build-up of ice on them to cause the pitch and roll problemsÉ

[Wicked Pilot]

Could the deployment of the landing gear cause a significant enough build-up of ice on them to cause the pitch and roll problems

It would have to have been impossibly cold to attract enough ice in the seconds it took to bring the plane down. That's extremely unlikely, especially since the landing gear is stowed in the engine cowling. And if the aircraft where that cold it would have been lost long prior by buildup on the wings. It would have been the flaps that triggered this as by extending them you're changing the aerodynamics of the wing. If ice had been accumulating steadily on descent the change would have been gradual and possibly unnoticed, when the flaps where extended they could have exacerbated the problem to an uncontrollable state. If you're landing in icing conditions with inadequate or no icing equipment you never move the flaps for this very reason. You have no idea what they're going to do.

[Broomstick]

That's somewhat of a confusing statement that the 'deicing system was on'. Which one, the leading edge, engine inlet, prop, spinner, windshield, pitot tubes? If it where the leading edges then that's a one shot at a time device. And since it's a boot deicer you have to wait for a somewhat solid layer to form before you break it off. If you activate it prematurely you just form bubbles under the ice and the system becomes ineffective. If you just leave it on it's worthless.

I thought I'd heard they'd solved that problem with di-icing boots... but then, I am no expert on such systems.

The NTSB said that the cockpit voice tape had the crew mentioning ice build up specifically on the leading edge of the wing and on the cockpit windshield, but no further details have been released.

I've heard speculation that ice build up might have jammed one of the flaps, preventing deployment. The NTSB did state that the severe pitch and roll occurred just after flap deployment. Asymmetrical flap deployment on an airplane with an accumulation of ice would not be a good thing. Apparently the crew also tried to retract flaps and landing gear just before the crash. Go around? Attempting to reduce drag long enough to get to the airport? Cycle the flaps and gear to dislodge ice? (Although I agree, it's not long enough for ice to build up on the gear) I don't know.

It's been less than 24 hours, the details are still sketchy at this point.

[FSTargetDrone]

Bit of an update:

NTSB: Plane didn’t dive, landed flat on house

Investigators sift debris near Buffalo for clues to disaster, which killed 50

The Associated Press

updated 7:14 p.m. ET, Sat., Feb. 14, 2009

CLARENCE, N.Y. - A commuter plane that smashed into a house was pointed away from the airport it was trying to reach, investigators said Saturday, noting that it apparently fell flat.

Flight data showed the plane’s safety systems warned the pilot that the aircraft was perilously close to losing lift and plummeting from the sky. The ensuing crash killed 49 people on the plane and one in the house.

Continental Connection Flight 3407 didn’t nose-dive into the house, as initially reported by some witnesses, said Steve Chealander, a National Transportation Safety Board member.

The Newark-to-Buffalo flight was cleared to land on a runway pointing to the southwest, but it crashed with its nose pointed northeast, Chealander said.

It will take as many as four days to recover human remains from the site, which Chealander called an “excavation.” DNA and dental records must be used to identify the bodies, he said.

“Keep in mind, there’s an airplane that fell on top of a house, and they’re now intermingled,” he said.

The plane — on its descent to Buffalo Niagara International Airport in a light snow and mist — plunged suddenly about six miles shy of the runway and exploded.

A “stick shaker” and “stick pusher” mechanism had activated to warn Capt. Marvin Renslow that the plane was about to lose aerodynamic lift, a condition called a stall.

When the mechanism engaged, it would have pointed the nose down to try to keep enough air flowing under and over the wings, the last moments before it stalled and plunged to the ground.

Ice, conditions, crew examined

Before new details emerged, investigators were picking through incinerated wreckage Saturday, gathering more evidence to determine what brought down the plane. Icing on the aircraft is suspected to have played a role, but officials have stopped short of calling that the cause.

Experts were analyzing data from the black boxes, including comments by crew members about a buildup of ice on the wings and windshield of the plane, Chealander said.

Other aircraft in the area Thursday night told air traffic controllers they also experienced icing around the time that the plane went down.

Icing is one of several elements being examined by investigators, Chealander said, adding that a full report will probably take a year.

Officials say the crew of the Continental Connection flight remarked upon significant ice buildup on the wings and windshield shortly before the aircraft pitched violently and slammed into a house Thursday night.

Ice on the wings can interfere catastrophically with an aircraft's handling and has been blamed for a number of major air disasters over the years, but officials said they had drawn no conclusions as to the cause of this crash.

He said the NTSB has been pressing for more regulations to improve deicing.

Another aspect of the investigation will focus on the crew, how they were trained and whether they had enough time to rest between flights. Other investigators focused on the weather, the mechanics of the plane and whether the engine, wings and various mechanics of the plane operated as they were designed to.

Initial visual inspection of the engines indicates they were working properly, Chealander said.

It was the nation's first deadly crash of a commercial airliner in 2 1/2 years.

'A glow in the sky'

One of the survivors from the house, Karen Wielinski, 57, told WBEN-AM that she was watching TV in the family room when she heard a noise. She said her daughter, 22-year-old Jill, who also survived, was watching TV in another part of the house.

"Planes do go over our house, but this one just sounded really different, louder, and I thought to myself, 'If that's a plane, it's going to hit something,'" she told the station. "The next thing I knew the ceiling was on me."

She said she hadn't been told the fate of her husband, Doug. "He was a good person, loved his family," she said.

Witnesses heard the plane sputtering before it plunged through the roof of the house.

"It was like you were on the runway. It wasn't just different. It was like it was going to hit your house," said Michelle Winer, 46, who ran to look out her front window to see what was happening. "I saw a glow in the sky and I ran to get my husband. He thought I was crazy and then there was a huge explosion. You heard it and felt it."

After the crash, at least two pilots were heard on air traffic control circuits saying they had been picking up ice on their wings.

The 74-seat Q400 Bombardier aircraft, in the Dash 8 family of planes, was operated by Colgan Air, based in Manassas, Va. Colgan's parent company, Pinnacle Airlines of Memphis, Tenn., said the plane was new and had a clean safety record.

The pilot, Renslow, had been with the airline for nearly 3 1/2 years and had more than 3,000 hours of flying experience with Colgan, which is nearly the maximum a pilot could have flown over that period of time under government regulations.

It was the first fatal crash of a commercial airliner in the United States since Aug. 27, 2006, when 49 people were killed when a Comair airliner mistakenly took off from a Lexington, Ky., runway that was too short.

In general, smaller planes like the Dash 8, which uses a system of pneumatic de-icing boots, are more susceptible to ice buildup than larger commuter planes that use a heating system to warm the wings. The boots, a rubber membrane stretched over the surface, are filled with compressed air to crack any ice that builds up.

A similar turboprop jet crash 15 years ago in Indiana was caused by ice, and after that the NTSB recommended more aggressively using pneumatic de-icing boots. But the FAA has not adopted the recommendation. It remains on the NTSB's list of most-wanted safety improvements.

Consider:

The Newark-to-Buffalo flight was cleared to land on a runway pointing to the southwest, but it crashed with its nose pointed northeast, Chealander said.

Given that it crashed pointed in the opposite direction of where the airport was, while apparently heading towards the same airport, does this mean that the aircraft was, well, in the middle of a spin as it came down? Am I reading this right? It sounds like it basically corkscrewed right on top of the house.

[Sephirius]

Plane stalls out, flat spin?

[Broomstick]

I am not familiar with the spin characteristics of that airplane. It is my (very limited) information that spins typically start nose-low and then flatten out, but only six miles from the airplane the plane would have been relatively low and I don't think there would have been enough time for a spin to flatten. However, I could be wrong on that given that it's out of my area of expertise. It is weird, though, that they would be pointed 180 degrees off from their expected course. Pancaking into the ground like that is also strange.

At this point, I'll let the NTSB figure it out.

[Wicked Pilot]

I thought I'd heard they'd solved that problem with di-icing boots... but then, I am no expert on such systems.

I don't think that is or will ever be the case. It's just an inherent limitation to that type of system. Also, who exactly on the airplane is directing its use? Just looking at the photo of the aircraft it seems unlikely the pilots would have a good view of the leading edge, are the flight attendants responsible for monitoring the wings for icing?

Another possibility I'm thinking is a freeze over of the pitot static system. In the weather and at night that could have very easily spelled disaster. If the crew is maintaining altitude and airspeed during the radar pattern they may have never noticed. When on final they would have needed to 1. slow 2. put the flaps down and 3. intercept the glide slope, all maneuvers which either primarily require the pitot static system, or verification by it. If they didn't catch a failure fast a stall would have been imminent.



Ghetto edit: For the non pilot types the pitot static system is the source of airspeed and altitude indications. The system includes probes and ports on the exterior of the aircraft, which if frozen over by ice renders it inoperable.

[Enigma]

Need confirmation but I quickly read somewhere that the plane was on autopilot when it crashed. Is it true or bunk?
Edit
Autopilot was on in violation of airline policy.

By The Associated Press
BUFFALO, N.Y. - A federal aviation official says the plane that crashed into a house near Buffalo, killing 50 people, was on autopilot when it went down, a violation of airline policy.

Steve Chealander of the National Transportation Safety Board says Colgan Air recommends pilots fly manually in icy conditions. Pilots are required to do so in severe ice.

The pilot of doomed plane reported "significant" ice on his wings and windshield just before crashing Thursday night.

Colgan Air operates a fleet of 51 regional turboprops including Continental Connection, United Express and US Airways Express.

Chealander says the preliminary investigation indicates the autopilot was still on when the plane crashed.