Just to let everyone know, this is not the final word on whether a repeal campaign will be held in 2010 or 2012 since there are still many grassroots based organizations out there who are taking on the task of getting a initiative qualified on the 2010 ballot. Over the past few months, there have been an arduous and divisive debate over the date on which to go back to the ballot.CA gay rights group: Wait for 2012 to fight ban
By BROOKE DONALD (AP) – 32 minutes ago
SAN FRANCISCO — One of California's largest and most influential gay rights groups says it prefers to wait until the 2012 election to ask voters to repeal the state's same-sex marriage ban.
Equality California said Wednesday organizers spoke to donors, campaign consultants and community leaders and concluded that pursuing the 2012 ballot, instead of 2010, is the best strategy to win. They say they'll have more time to raise money and persuade undecided voters.
Activists have been divided over when to go back to the polls since passage last fall of Proposition 8.
Some say the earlier the better. The Los Angeles-based Courage Campaign announced Wednesday it would continue a push to place a measure on the 2010 ballot.
Copyright © 2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.
California gay marriage groups divide on 2010 fight
SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - The biggest California gay rights advocacy group on Wednesday said it needed three years to build a coalition to repeal a ban on same-sex marriage in the state, creating a rift in the movement with those who want to go back to the polls next year while anger is hot.
California, the most populous state and often a standard-bearer for social liberalism, is the biggest prize in U.S. culture wars. The next fight over gay marriage is sure to draw in national organizations, cost $100 million or more, and may affect the next U.S. presidential campaign if it takes place in 2012.
California's November 2008 vote to ban same-sex marriage, months after the state's top court legalized it, bolstered the power of social conservatives but sparked nationwide protests among gays and their allies. It was followed by legalization of gay marriage in a handful of mostly Northeastern states.
"We can have majority support by 2012," said Marc Solomon, marriage director of Equality California, in a conference call. His group raised the most money and led the 2008 campaign against Proposition 8, which defines marriage as between a man and a woman and was approved by California voters.
Big donors are not ready to fund a new fight so soon after failure, and a door-to-door campaign will take time, he said.
But smaller groups have said waiting will sap momentum among gays and their allies still smarting from the unexpected ballot results. They vowed to mount a 2010 challenge, which would coincide with federal mid-term elections.
"This is not some kitchen table group. If you stop that momentum now, those people won't necessarily be there in 2012 when you decide to start your campaign back up," said John Henning, Executive Director of Love Honor Cherish.
His group has a plan to raise more than a million signatures with volunteers and says a $32 million war chest would be enough to win the fight.
The California debate reflects a national question over how solid opposition is to same-sex marriage. Many advocates say that exposure to stable same-sex couples and assurances that churches will not be forced to marry gays will convince a silent majority that anyone should be able to marry. But most states explicitly ban such gay unions, and have often done so by popular vote.
Activism among gay rights groups has intensified since the November defeat in California, but social conservatives with deep pockets and legendary organizational skills are preparing for the next fight, too.
Proponents of the 2010 challenge say that the tide of anger will drive their success and others will join as a campaign plan is laid out and early efforts show success.
"We're in a movement era," said Rick Jacobs, the chair of the Courage Campaign, which trains grass-roots organizers. The day after the California ban passed -- and after President Barack Obama was elected -- was a wake-up call for gay advocates, he said.
"On the one hand they put an African American man in the White House when it was impossible. On the other hand they had their rights taken away."
I'm going to go ahead and just point out the elephant in the room: there is a disconnect between EQCA and the grassroots. The most vocal grassroots organizations have been pushing for 2010 while the more established groups such as EQCA have been hinting and now announced their support for 2012. The largest organization that have been supportive of 2010 is Courage Campaign, which I would classify as a semi-grassroots progressive organization (supposedly boasting of a 700,000 membership count). There is currently a coalition of grassroots organizations pushing for 2010 who are poised to submit ballot language by the end of August and begin collecting signatures starting in late October. They need roughly 1.2 million signatures to qualify the initiative on the ballot.
2010 v 2012
There are multiple arguments for both either side but the major ones come down this: Those in favor of 2010 contend it is winnable next year and that failure to move now will cost the community a large momentum of activism that is already starting to fade. Those in favor of 2012 contend it is not winnable next year and that waiting for 2012 would give us the advantage for us to win. A large, extensive and oversampled poll was taken in May to test Californian opinion on marriage equality to see which year would best suit us. An analysis was then done on both 2010 and 2012 elections based on the turn out of likely voters of each election. 2010 will be a highly contested gubernatorial election and 2012 will be a presidential election. Also, what's important to note is there were no adjustments made to the results regarding projected changes in public opinion on same-sex marriage over the years.
For 2010: 46% - 49% (5% undecided) in favor of marriage equality
For 2012: 47% - 48% (5% undecided) in favor of marriage equality
In short, 2012 provides us with a 1-2 point advantage. Keep in mind that when going into the election, past elections on this issue have shown that undecided voters will come out overwhelmingly against us so in order to win, we have to move into the election to 50% or above. When looking at these numbers at face value, none of these years will give us a victory but these numbers also ignore a myriad of other critical factors including top-of-the-ticket endorsements, the energy of social activism, projected changes in public opinion, or any opinion impact based on the actual campaigns. However, the biggest argument for why 2010 is winnable is another result from the poll based on the language of the ballot proposition.
For 2010, voters were asked if they would support a proposition to reinstate the right of same-sex couples to marry with the addendum that no church, religious person or institution would be force to conduct marriages that were against their beliefs:
51% - 43% (8% undecided)
One thing to keep in mind is that Equality California is also lobbied by huge donors who are not very inclined to join any campaign until they are very assured of victory. These donors contribute millions of dollars but some of the assurances that these donors are asking are simply not acceptable to the grassroots organizations (some have been quoted to say that they would not be comfortable with going forward until they have 60% support from Californians). For most people who are involved with this, Equality California's announcement is no big surprise. Here is the press release from the coalition of groups going for 2010 in response to Equality California's announcement:
Make no mistake - if there is enough support to get the initiative qualified on the ballot in 2010 regardless of its merits, Equality California will be forced to come aboard with running the campaign next year.FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE For More Information Contact
8/12/09 David Comfort
Co-Founder, Equality Network
& nbsp; (310) 880-7791
david@equalitynetwork.org
MOVING FORWARD WITH MARRIAGE EQUALITY IN 2010
Wednesday, August 12th – Los Angeles, CA. The announcement today by
Equality California (EQCA) that it will delay a new ballot initiative
to repeal Prop 8 until a laundry list of conditions are met is a clear
example of an established LGBT (lesbian, gay, bisexual and
transgender) organization’s lack of leadership on equal rights, warned
Equality Network, an Los Angeles-based grassroots organization.
People inside and outside of the LGBT community followed EQCA’s lead
in 2008 in fighting Prop 8, which stripped gays and lesbians of their
right to marry. Come November 5th, we saw how that campaign failed us
and our community.
After the passage of Prop 8, people banded together, forming
grassroots groups in LA, Fresno, San Diego, and San Francisco – all
over the state, from large to small communities. These communities
and people have spoken overwhelmin gly for Marriage Equality to be
placed on the ballot in 2010. EQCA and other large organizations
polled their members, with more than 70% in favor of a marriage
equality ballot initiative in 2010. Unlike the Courage Campaign, they
have now decided to go ahead and ignore their membership. Therefore,
we can no longer support them as they no longer support nor represent
the LGBT community.
“’Equality California’ prides itself as the voice of the LGBT
community, fighting for our rights and working to ‘secure legal
protections’ for LGBT people. On the contrary, they have thoroughly
demonstrated that they are incompetent and inept by their leadership,
or lack thereof, during the No on Prop 8 campaign. I cannot see how
the LGBT community and its allies can continue to support Equality
California and its efforts, or should I say, lack of efforts, to win
back our right to marry and guarantee equal protection under the law,”
said David Comfort, Co-Founder of Equality Network.
Equality Network, an LA based non-profit grassroots organization will
take the lead, along with the Coalition for Marriage Equality, a
coalition of grassroots organizations across the state, and put
Marriage Equality back on the ballot in 2010. And this time we will
win. We will no longer follow EQCA’s dictates. EQCA have opined that
we do not have sufficient20time, money or community support, but we beg
to differ. Once the campaign is launched, we will find large and
small donors alike. The community is behind us, as demonstrated by
the tens of thousands of people who have taken to the streets since
last November, and we have built and are building stronger ties with
communities that were left out last time: small rural areas, people of
color, people of faith and our allies. "We're the beginning of the
campaign, right here," declared Jordan Krueger of Equality Network, at
the launch meeting of the Coalition of Marriage Equality on August
9th.
48% favored Marriage Equality in 2008. That is a high percentage
starting point, higher than some campaigns that have won in the end.
From women’s suffrage to the civil rights movements to student
activism, grassroots leaders did not listen to political consultants
and pollsters and moved forward because they saw injustice inflicted
upon a small minority. EQCA has announced that they will let these
injustices to the LGBT community continue without putting up a fight.
We cannot and we will not.
Your head is humming and it won't go, in case you don't know, the piper's calling you to join him