Trouble in Burma, again

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Pelranius
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Trouble in Burma, again

Post by Pelranius »

Ethnic group in Myanmar said to break cease-fire

BANGKOK – Fighting reportedly broke out Thursday between an ethnic militia and government security forces in northeastern Myanmar, breaching a two-decade cease-fire.

Several minorities living in military-ruled Myanmar's border areas have continued their long struggles for autonomy despite cease-fires with the military regime that seized power in 1988.

Fighters for the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army — representing the Kokang minority — on Thursday attacked a police post along the border with China near the town of Laogai, according to the U.S. Campaign for Burma.

The Washington-based lobbying group said several police officers were killed and the rebels temporarily occupied the post.

The Kachin News Group, an online news agency that covers the Kachin minority in northern Myanmar, also reported the attack as well as several other clashes.

Reports of the fighting could not be independently confirmed.

Tensions between the Kokang and the government have risen recently after the ethnic group defied an order to allow its guerrillas to be incorporated into a border guard force under army command.

The junta plans an election next year, the first since 1990's abortive polls, the result of which were ignored by the military when the National League for Democracy party won by a landslide. The military has been anxious to assure stability ahead of the vote.

On Wednesday, Myanmar ethnic groups and Chinese media reported that thousands of people fled into China this month after tensions flared between the Kokang and government.

Some 10,000 left the Kokang area in Myanmar's northeastern Shan state between Aug. 7 and Aug. 12 after a military confrontation, The Chongqing Evening Post reported.

The trigger for the confrontation was an Aug. 8 raid on the home of Kokang leader Peng Jiashen — also known as Phon Kyar Shin — ostensibly to look for illegal drugs.

Peng's troops in the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army began mobilizing, but were forced out of Laogai on Tuesday by government soldiers and members of a breakaway Kokang faction.

According to the U.S. Campaign for Burma, Peng issued a statement Thursday calling for talks with the government and for newly deployed troops to withdraw from the area.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090827/ap_ ... nic_unrest

And the Wa and Shan armies are involved too.
Fighting in Kokang continues
Saturday, 29 August 2009 09:36 S.H.A.N.
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Hostilities that broke out on Thursday (27 August) continued for the second day yesterday but on a lower intensity probably due to China’s intervention, according to sources.

The main clashes took place in:
• Yanglongjai, just south of the Laogai-Nansan cross border checkpoint, according to a report by the pro-Bai Souqian faction that had ousted his former boss Peng Jiasheng
• And on the Kokang-Wa-Yunnan triangle area, where the Burma Army has been attempting to dislodge troops loyal to Peng from their mountain bases at Qingsuihe
[Peng Jiasheng with children on the 20th anniversary of peace with the junta]

Peng Jiasheng with children on the 20th anniversary of peace with the junta

Some 4-500 United Wa State Army (UWSA) fighters had taken part in the defense of the bases, according to a ceasefire source. “The fighting stopped at about 13:00,” he said. “The Burma Army’s attacking force is said to be waiting for reinforcements from the rear.”

It would nevertheless take some time before the back-up units arrive, said other sources, because some of the bridges were demolished by the rebels.

There was also a report that one of Kokang’s allies Shan State Army (SSA) ‘North’ had staged hit-and-run tactics to delay the reinforcements. But an SSA commander had flatly denied the report. “We are just holding our positions,” he said.

As usual, reports of the Burma Army rounding up civilians to carry supplies in support of the campaign have begun to filter in. One eye-witness report says even people in the city of Lashio, Shan State North’s capital, were not spared. “As a result, streets became deserted in the evening and many shops were closed by 8pm,” said a resident.

China has for the first time urged Burma to peacefully resolve matters with the Kokang minority, reported CCTV yesterday.

Kokang, Wa, Mongla and a Kachin splinter group used to be part of the Communist Party of Burma’s People’s Army. The 4 party alliance Peace and Democracy Front (PDF) has yet to accept non-former CPB groups such as SSA North and Kachin Independence Army (KIA) as members. SSA was regarded only as “the closest ally outside the PDF.”

The CPB, backed by China, had fought against Rangoon, until it was overthrown by the ethnic forces under its command in 1989.
http://www.shanland.org/index.php?optio ... Itemid=284

And there are reports that one PLA soldier got killed by Tatmadaw shelling on the border.

And rumors in the Chinese media that the PLA is moving two divisions to the border. Interesting times.

If the junta is dumb enough to shell Chinese territory, Naypidaw may be targeted by H-6 bombers very soon.

I wonder what's Thailand's take on this. Stuart?
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Re: Trouble in Burma, again

Post by Fingolfin_Noldor »

A few bombs in the golf course, or one delivered to the doorstep of their new city should do the trick.
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Re: Trouble in Burma, again

Post by Pelranius »

I think the Chinese will also start showering the Thais with armored fighting vehicles and maybe even tanks and self propelled artillery. That will really get Napiydaw's goat, considering how they have to pay for their gear from Norinco while Beijing sells the latest stuff at discount to their mortal enemies in Bangkok.
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Re: Trouble in Burma, again

Post by Fingolfin_Noldor »

I seriously doubt Myammar would bite the hand that feeds it. Likely, if the Thais get entangled, what I say will happen.

However, in this case, I suspect China would just press the Myammar government to do something, or it will do it themselves.

As for China courting Thailand, that has been going on for some time now, especially when Chinese influence in South East Asia is on the rise.
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Re: Trouble in Burma, again

Post by Pelranius »

The Chinese have been funneling weapons to the Thais since the Vietnamese toppled the Khmer Rouge.

The Myanmarese junta hasn't behaved very rationally. If they had any sense, they wouldn't have started this whole business with the ethnic militias, given Chinese and Thai interests in the border areas (pipelines and such).
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