Libya: A Premature Victory Celebration

N&P: Discuss governments, nations, politics and recent related news here.

Moderators: Alyrium Denryle, Edi, K. A. Pital

Chirios
Jedi Knight
Posts: 502
Joined: 2010-07-09 12:27am

Libya: A Premature Victory Celebration

Post by Chirios »

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20110829 ... cd8b6630bb

You might not be able to access the link.
By George Friedman

The war in Libya is over. More precisely, governments and media have decided that the war is over, despite the fact that fighting continues. The unfulfilled expectation of this war has consistently been that Moammar Gadhafi would capitulate when faced with the forces arrayed against him, and that his own forces would abandon him as soon as they saw that the war was lost. What was being celebrated last week, with presidents, prime ministers and the media proclaiming the defeat of Gadhafi, will likely be true in due course. The fact that it is not yet true does not detract from the self-congratulations.

For example, Italian Foreign Minister Franco Frattini reported that only 5 percent of Libya is still under Gadhafi’s control. That seems like a trivial amount, save for this news from Italian newspaper La Stampa, which reported that “Tripoli is being cleaned up” neighborhood by neighborhood, street by street and home by home. Meanwhile, bombs from above are pounding Sirte, where, according to the French, Gadhafi has managed to arrive, although it is not known how. The strategically important town of Bali Walid — another possible hiding place and one of only two remaining exit routes to another Gadhafi stronghold in Sabha — is being encircled.

To put it differently, Gadhafi’s forces still retain military control of substantial areas. There is house-to-house fighting going on in Tripoli. There are multiple strongholds with sufficient defensive strength that forces cannot enter them without significant military preparation. Although Gadhafi’s actual location is unknown, his capture is the object of substantial military preparations, including NATO airstrikes, around Bali Walid, Sirte and Sabha. When Saddam Hussein was captured, he was hiding in a hole in the ground, alone and without an army. Gadhafi is still fighting and posing challenges. The war is not over.

It could be argued that while Gadhafi retains a coherent military force and significant territory, he no longer governs Libya. That is certainly true and significant, but it will become more significant when his enemies do take control of the levers of power. It is unreasonable to expect that they should be in a position to do so a few days after entering Tripoli and while fighting continues. But it does raise a critical question: whether the rebels have sufficient coherence to form an effective government or whether new rounds of fighting among Libyans can be expected even after Gadhafi’s forces cease functioning. To put it simply, Gadhafi appears to be on his way to defeat but he is not there yet, and the ability of his enemies to govern Libya is doubtful.

Immaculate Intervention

Given that the dying is far from over, it is interesting to consider why Barack Obama, Nicolas Sarkozy and David Cameron, the major players in this war, all declared last week that Gadhafi had fallen, implying an end to war, and why the media proclaimed the war’s end. To understand this, it is important to understand how surprising the course of the war was to these leaders. From the beginning, there was an expectation that NATO intervention, first with a no-fly zone, then with direct airstrikes on Gadhafi’s position, would lead to a rapid collapse of his government and its replacement with a democratic coalition in the east.

Two forces combined to lead to this conclusion. The first consisted of human-rights groups outside governments and factions in foreign ministries and the State Department who felt an intervention was necessary to stop the pending slaughter in Benghazi. This faction had a serious problem. The most effective way to quickly end a brutal regime was military intervention. However, having condemned the American invasion of Iraq, which was designed, at least in part, to get rid of a brutal regime, this faction found it difficult to justify rapid military intervention on the ground in Libya. Moral arguments require a degree of consistency.

In Europe, the doctrine of “soft power” has become a central doctrine. In the case of Libya, finding a path to soft power was difficult. Sanctions and lectures would probably not stop Gadhafi, but military action ran counter to soft power. What emerged was a doctrine of soft military power. Instituting a no-fly zone was a way to engage in military action without actually hurting anyone, except those Libyan pilots who took off. It satisfied the need to distinguish Libya from Iraq by not invading and occupying Libya but still putting crushing pressure on Gadhafi.

Of course, a no-fly zone proved ineffective and irrelevant, and the French began bombing Gadhafi’s forces the same day. Libyans on the ground were dying, but not British, French or American soldiers. While the no-fly zone was officially announced, this segue to an air campaign sort of emerged over time without a clear decision point. For human-rights activists, this kept them from addressing the concern that airstrikes always cause unintended deaths because they are never as accurate as one might like. For the governments, it allowed them to be seen as embarking upon what I have called an “immaculate intervention.”

The second force that liked this strategy was the various air forces involved. There is no question of the importance of air power in modern war, but there is a constant argument over whether the application of air power by itself can achieve desired political ends without the commitment of ground forces. For the air community, Libya was going to be the place where it could demonstrate its effectiveness in achieving such ends.

So the human-rights advocates could focus on the ends — protecting Libyan civilians in Benghazi — and pretend that they had not just advocated the commencement of a war that would itself leave many people dead. Political leaders could feel that they were not getting into a quagmire but simply undertaking a clean intervention. The air forces could demonstrate their utility in delivering desired political outcomes.

Why and How

The question of the underlying reason for the war should be addressed because stories are circulating that oil companies are competing for vast sums of money in Libya. These stories are all reasonable, in the sense that the real story remains difficult to fathom, and I sympathize with those who are trying to find a deep conspiracy to explain all of this. I would like to find one, too. The problem is that going to war for oil in Libya was unnecessary. Gadhafi loved selling oil, and if the governments involved told him quietly that they were going to blow him up if he didn’t make different arrangements on who got the oil revenues and what royalties he got to keep, Gadhafi would have made those arrangements. He was as cynical as they come, and he understood the subtle idea that shifting oil partners and giving up a lot of revenue was better than being blown up.

Indeed, there is no theory out there that explains this war by way of oil, simply because it was not necessary to actually to go war to get whatever concessions were wanted. So the story — protecting people in Benghazi from slaughter — is the only rational explanation for what followed, however hard it is to believe.

It must also be understood that given the nature of modern air warfare, NATO forces in small numbers had to be inserted on the ground from the beginning — actually, at least a few days before the beginning of the air campaign. Accurately identifying targets and taking them out with sufficient precision involves highly skilled special-operations teams guiding munitions to those targets. The fact that there have been relatively few friendly-fire accidents indicates that standard operational procedures have been in place.

These teams were probably joined by other special operators who trained — and in most cases informally led — indigenous forces in battle. There were ample reports in the early days of the war that special operations teams were on the ground conducting weapons training and organizing the fighters who opposed Gadhafi.

But there proved to be two problems with this approach. First, Gadhafi did not fold his tent and capitulate. He seemed singularly unimpressed by the force he was facing. Second, his troops turned out to be highly motivated and capable, at least compared to their opponents. Proof of this can be found in the fact that they did not surrender en masse, they did maintain a sufficient degree of unit coherence and — the final proof — they held out for six months and are still holding out. The view of human-rights groups that an isolated tyrant would break in the face of the international community, the view of political leaders that an isolated tyrant facing the might of NATO’s air forces would collapse in days and the view of the air forces that air strikes would shatter resistance, all turned out to be false.

A War Prolonged

Part of this was due to a misunderstanding of the nature of Libyan politics. Gadhafi was a tyrant, but he was not completely isolated. He had enemies but he also had many supporters who benefitted from him or at least believed in his doctrines. There was also a general belief among ordinary government soldiers (some of whom are mercenaries from the south) that capitulation would lead to their slaughter, and the belief among government leaders that surrender meant trials in The Hague and terms in prison. The belief of the human-rights community in an International Criminal Court (ICC) trying Gadhafi and the men around him gives them no room for retreat, and men without room for retreat fight hard and to the end. There was no way to negotiate capitulation unless the U.N. Security Council itself publicly approved the deal. The winks and nods that got dictators to leave in the old days aren’t enough anymore. All countries that are party to the Rome Statute are required to turn a leader like Gadhafi over to the ICC for trial.

Therefore, unless the U.N. Security Council publicly strikes a deal with Gadhafi, which would be opposed by the human-rights community and would become ugly, Gadhafi will not give up — and neither will his troops. There were reports last week that some government soldiers had been executed. True or not, fair or not, that would not be a great motivator for surrender.

The war began with the public mission of protecting the people of Benghazi. This quickly morphed into a war to unseat Gadhafi. The problem was that between the ideological and the military aims, the forces dedicated to the war were insufficient to execute the mission. We do not know how many people were killed in the fighting in the past six months, but pursuing the war using soft military power in this way certainly prolonged the war and likely caused many deaths, both military and civilian.

After six months, NATO got tired, and we wound up with the assault on Tripoli. The assault appears to have consisted of three parts. The first was the insertion of NATO special operations troops (in the low hundreds, not thousands) who, guided by intelligence operatives in Tripoli, attacked and destabilized the government forces in the city. The second part was an information operation in which NATO made it appear that the battle was over. The bizarre incident in which Gadhafi’s son, Seif al-Islam, announced as being captured only to show up in an SUV looking very un-captured, was part of this game. NATO wanted it to appear that the leadership had been reduced and Gadhafi’s forces broken to convince those same forces to capitulate. Seif al-Islam’s appearance was designed to signal his troops that the war was still on.

Following the special operations strikes and the information operations, western rebels entered the city to great fanfare, including celebratory gunfire into the air. The world’s media chronicled the end of the war as the special operations teams melted away and the victorious rebels took the bows. It had taken six months, but it was over.

And then it became obvious that it wasn’t over. Five percent of Libya — an interesting calculation — was not liberated. Street fighting in Tripoli continued. Areas of the country were still under Gadhafi’s control. And Gadhafi himself was not where his enemies wanted him to be. The war went on.

A number of lessons emerge from all this. First, it is important to remember that Libya in itself may not be important to the world, but it matters to Libyans a great deal. Second, do not assume that tyrants lack support. Gadhafi didn’t govern Libya for 42 years without support. Third, do not assume that the amount of force you are prepared to provide is the amount of force needed. Fourth, eliminating the option of a negotiated end to the war by the means of international courts may be morally satisfying, but it causes wars to go on and casualties to mount. It is important to decide what is more important — to alleviate the suffering of people or to punish the guilty. Sometimes it is one or the other. Fifth, and most important, do not kid the world about wars being over. After George W. Bush flew onto an aircraft carrier that was emblazoned with a “mission accomplished” banner, the Iraq war became even more violent, and the damage to him was massive. Information operations may be useful in persuading opposing troops to surrender, but political credibility bleeds away when the war is declared over and the fighting goes on.

Gadhafi will likely fall in the end. NATO is more powerful then he is, and enough force will be brought to bear to bring him down. The question, of course, is whether there was another way to accomplish that with less cost and more yield. Leaving aside the war-for-oil theory, if the goal was to protect Benghazi and bring down Gadhafi, greater force or a negotiated exit with guarantees against trials in The Hague would likely have worked faster with less loss of life than the application of soft military power.

As the world contemplates the situation in Syria, this should be borne in mind.
An op-ed by STRATFOR founder George Friedman. Friedman is a little... weird. He tends to write in a very "matter of fact" tone but doesn't actually cite his sources. That said, what he's saying here does match up with the news that's steadily trickling out of Libya. What do you guys think, is calling the Libyan civil war a "victory" too much?
User avatar
Steven Snyder
Jedi Master
Posts: 1375
Joined: 2002-07-17 04:32pm
Location: The Kingdom of the Burning Sun

Re: Libya: A Premature Victory Celebration

Post by Steven Snyder »

The war in Libya is over. More precisely, governments and media have decided that the war is over, despite the fact that fighting continues. The unfulfilled expectation of this war has consistently been that Moammar Gadhafi would capitulate when faced with the forces arrayed against him, and that his own forces would abandon him as soon as they saw that the war was lost.
From the beginning the Libyan people said that Ghaddafi would never step down or submit, and I (with no military training) never had any illusions that this would be a short conflict. All I see from this article is a giant strawman.

Obama got Bin Laden because of a patient and diligent course of action, I see this no differently.
Pelranius
Sith Marauder
Posts: 3539
Joined: 2006-10-24 11:35am
Location: Around and about the Beltway

Re: Libya: A Premature Victory Celebration

Post by Pelranius »

Stratfor went around claiming two weeks ago that Tripoli would fall only after a prolonged siege of at least a few months, IIRC, so I'll take Mr. Friedman's advice with a healthy sprinkling of salt. Oh, and his futurology book is pretty weird too.
Turns out that a five way cross over between It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia, the Ali G Show, Fargo, Idiocracy and Veep is a lot less funny when you're actually living in it.
Simon_Jester
Emperor's Hand
Posts: 30165
Joined: 2009-05-23 07:29pm

Re: Libya: A Premature Victory Celebration

Post by Simon_Jester »

I do think that there's a valid point here in that the practice of trying deposed tyrants for their crimes makes them want to fight to the death. In effect, we're making these wars into total wars for the dictatorships that fight them, because no matter what happens, the senior officials of the dictatorship can expect to be executed or imprisoned for the rest of their lives if they lose. They have no reason to hold anything back, or to surrender before they've fired the last bullet.

We may be willing to accept that as the way international law works, but we should be aware that it's happening.
This space dedicated to Vasily Arkhipov
User avatar
Melchior
Jedi Master
Posts: 1061
Joined: 2005-01-13 10:46am

Re: Libya: A Premature Victory Celebration

Post by Melchior »

Simon_Jester wrote:I do think that there's a valid point here in that the practice of trying deposed tyrants for their crimes makes them want to fight to the death. In effect, we're making these wars into total wars for the dictatorships that fight them, because no matter what happens, the senior officials of the dictatorship can expect to be executed or imprisoned for the rest of their lives if they lose. They have no reason to hold anything back, or to surrender before they've fired the last bullet.

We may be willing to accept that as the way international law works, but we should be aware that it's happening.
It could also have the effect of making people less willing to be senior officials in dictatorships. Looks suspiciously like the arguments in favor of disjoining executive pay from performance to avoid excessive risk aversion.
User avatar
K. A. Pital
Glamorous Commie
Posts: 20813
Joined: 2003-02-26 11:39am
Location: Elysium

Re: Libya: A Premature Victory Celebration

Post by K. A. Pital »

Melchior wrote:It could also have the effect of making people less willing to be senior officials in dictatorships. Looks suspiciously like the arguments in favor of disjoining executive pay from performance to avoid excessive risk aversion.
You're not paying attention to reality. Libyan rebel leader was Gaddafi's minister of interior. :lol: If anything, this would make people more willing to betray their masters inside the dictatorial power structure and waste them in a round of war for rule over the nation.
Lì ci sono chiese, macerie, moschee e questure, lì frontiere, prezzi inaccessibile e freddure
Lì paludi, minacce, cecchini coi fucili, documenti, file notturne e clandestini
Qui incontri, lotte, passi sincronizzati, colori, capannelli non autorizzati,
Uccelli migratori, reti, informazioni, piazze di Tutti i like pazze di passioni...

...La tranquillità è importante ma la libertà è tutto!
Assalti Frontali
Simon_Jester
Emperor's Hand
Posts: 30165
Joined: 2009-05-23 07:29pm

Re: Libya: A Premature Victory Celebration

Post by Simon_Jester »

Melchior wrote:It could also have the effect of making people less willing to be senior officials in dictatorships. Looks suspiciously like the arguments in favor of disjoining executive pay from performance to avoid excessive risk aversion.
You misunderstand.

This is rooted in an old observation about the behavior of autocrats (kings, military dictators, it doesn't really matter) when their continued rule is threatened. The usual responses are:

1) Flee into the wilderness, try to rally support and retake power.
2) Flee the country, live as an exile on whatever fraction of the national treasury you can stuff in your pockets.
3) Die fighting in the capital.
4) Surrender peaceably to the attacker.

(1) is deadly dangerous for the autocrat, though not uncommon- it usually ends up with the autocrat getting cornered somewhere and being forced to pick options (1) through (4) again.

(2) is very appealing, especially to an old ruler who feels the pressures of leadership and would like to retire. It's not uncommon- there are countless historical cases of various heirs, claimants to thrones, deposed military dictators, and so on who lived much or all of their later years in exile.

(3) is obviously suicide.

(4) has problems. Autocrats who surrender peaceably to the attacker usually wind up dead. Or imprisoned, then dead as soon as someone decides it's safer to kill them than to keep them around as a rallying point for the opposition (see Nicholas II, or Louis XVI). So (4) really isn't a good plan for them.


Now, none of these options except (2) promise much to the dictator. If you found yourself military dictator of a country, you would have to be pretty bold to gamble on (1), and pretty desperate to gamble on (4). Remember, your personal survival is at stake here, and if you weren't used to thinking that your personal survival is worth fighting a battle in which lots of people would be killed, you wouldn't be a military dictator in the first place.


In general, the dictator is in the most danger choosing options (3) and (4), suffers the most humiliation- important to the man with the tyrannical ego- under option (4), and causes the most damage to his country on the way out by choosing options (1) and (3).

(4) is best from everyone else's perspective, but from the autocrat's position, (2) is probably best. (2) is going to look pretty good, because it lets you survive in comfort; all you're giving up is power. Quite a few dictators have taken (2), or surrendered on terms that would guarantee them the benefits of (2)- think of Napoleon and Elba.


But in the modern era, when a dictator has been singled out by the global media as a war criminal and all-round evil tyrant, (2) is not an option. A man like Qaddafi has nowhere to run, not really. His assets will be frozen by the world financial institutions, and most prosperous countries will want nothing to do with him.

So what on Earth do you expect him to do? The road of fleeing into exile is closed, surrendering to the rebels is likely just a humiliating way of committing suicide, as one glance at what happened to Saddam Hussein proves. what possible incentive does he have to do anything but fight to the death with whatever minimum of troops and resources he can hang onto? If the rebels or the international community are going to hang him anyway, or lock him in a prison and throw away the key for the few remaining years of his life, what's the point of giving in?

Qaddafi has every reason to say "Royalty is a good burial shroud."

Other people not tied to his regime (like the minister of the interior) may be able to defect to the rebels- but he himself cannot, because there is nothing he can do to escape being put on trial for the crimes of tyranny.
This space dedicated to Vasily Arkhipov
Omega18
Jedi Knight
Posts: 738
Joined: 2004-06-19 11:30pm

Re: Libya: A Premature Victory Celebration

Post by Omega18 »

The article may be correct in the narrow sense that serious fighting may still occur especially in Sirte, although things really seem to mostly be done with as far as real outright fighting in Tripoli goes. However the comment about how "Gadaffi will likely fall in the end" is rather preposterous in that it gives an utterly false impression that this detail is at all still in question.

Basically while Sirte and a certain amount of Gadaffi forces around it are still holding out around it, if it come to a fight the outcome is not in any way in doubt. Unlike previously, Sirte is looking a simultaneous attack from both the East and West from rebel forces if they choose to hold out. Furthermore, while earlier the rebels generally had issues with a lack of sufficient weaponry, after their taking of the various military bases and weapons details around Tripolli, rebel forces have a comparatively massive amount of heavy weaponry and ammunition which they can all deploy in an assault upon Sirte. By contrast, after suffering from NATO airstrikes and in many cases fighting against the Benghazi rebels for a very prolonged period of time, the forces in Sirte are presumably to some degree starting to experience shortages in some areas with regards to functional heavy weapons systems and ammunition.

Essentially while the battle might be bloody, its very clear that the rebels would ultimately prevail and storm Sirte. (I actually suspect negotiations will lead to Sirte force surrendering or only limited fighting occurring as most forces give in as tribal elders will realize that the fight is hopeless and prolonging it will simply lead to a bunch of them getting killed and Sirte getting trashed.)

Sabha should represent less of a major fight, and the other areas should really more resemble mop-up duties with much of the issue simply being rebels securing those areas. While Gadaffi could potentially try inspiring loyalists to engage in insurgent type activities and destabilize the rebel government, he doesn't have a prayer of actually getting back into power. Any future fighting (beyond the mop-up duties) for real control of Libya is going to be about which elements now part of the rebels are going to be the ones in charge. (If someone brings up the Afghanistan situation, that was very different in the sense that it was not a popular uprising against the current military and government.)
User avatar
Starglider
Miles Dyson
Posts: 8709
Joined: 2007-04-05 09:44pm
Location: Isle of Dogs
Contact:

Re: Libya: A Premature Victory Celebration

Post by Starglider »

Digging up a link for another topic just now reminded me of this Counterpunch story I read recently (abbreviated version below);
Maximilian Forte wrote:Since Colonel Gaddafi has lost his military hold in the war against NATO and the insurgents/rebels/new regime, numerous talking heads have taken to celebrating this war as a “success”. They believe this is a “victory of the Libyan people” and that we should all be celebrating. Others proclaim victory for the “responsibility to protect,” for “humanitarian interventionism,” and condemn the “anti-imperialist left”. Some of those who claim to be “revolutionaries,” or believe they support the “Arab revolution,” somehow find it possible to sideline NATO’s role in the war, instead extolling the democratic virtues of the insurgents, glorifying their martyrdom, and magnifying their role until everything else is pushed from view.

These top ten myths are some of the most repeated claims, by the insurgents, and/or by NATO, European leaders, the Obama administration, the mainstream media, and even the so-called “International Criminal Court”—the main actors speaking in the war against Libya. In turn, we look at some of the reasons why these claims are better seen as imperial folklore, as the myths that supported the broadest of all myths—that this war is a “humanitarian intervention,” one designed to “protect civilians”. Again, the importance of these myths lies in their wide reproduction, with little question, and to deadly effect. In addition, they threaten to severely distort the ideals of human rights and their future invocation, as well aiding in the continued militarization of Western culture and society.

1. Genocide.

Just a few days after the street protests began, on February 21 the very quick to defect Libyan deputy Permanent Representative to the UN, Ibrahim Dabbashi, stated: “We are expecting a real genocide in Tripoli. The airplanes are still bringing mercenaries to the airports”. This is excellent: a myth that is composed of myths. With that statement he linked three key myths together—the role of airports (hence the need for that gateway drug of military intervention: the no-fly zone), the role of “mercenaries” (meaning, simply, black people), and the threat of “genocide” (geared toward the language of the UN’s doctrine of the Responsibility to Protect). As ham-fisted and wholly unsubstantiated as the assertion was, he was clever in cobbling together three ugly myths, one of them grounded in racist discourse and practice that endures to the present, with newer atrocities reported against black Libyan and African migrants on a daily basis. He was not alone in making these assertions. Among others like him, Soliman Bouchuiguir, president of the Libyan League for Human Rights, told Reuters on March 14 that if Gaddafi’s forces reached Benghazi, “there will be a real bloodbath, a massacre like we saw in Rwanda”. That’s not the only time we would be deliberately reminded of Rwanda.

But “genocide” has a well established international legal definition, as seen repeatedly in the UN’s 1948 Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide, where genocide involves the persecution of a “a national, ethnical, racial or religious group”. Not all violence is “genocidal”. Internecine violence is not genocide. Genocide is neither just “lots of violence” nor violence against undifferentiated civilians. What both Dabbashi, Dallaire, and others failed to do was to identify the persecuted national, ethnic, racial or religious group, and how it differed in those terms from those allegedly committing the genocide. They really ought to know better (and they do), one as a UN ambassador and the other as a much exalted expert and lecturer on genocide. This suggests that myth-making was either deliberate, or founded on prejudice.

What foreign military intervention did do, however, was to enable the actual genocidal violence that has been routinely sidelined until only very recently: the horrific violence against African migrants and black Libyans, singled out solely on the basis of their skin colour. That has proceeded without impediment, without apology, and until recently, without much notice. Indeed, the media even collaborates, rapid to assert without evidence that any captured or dead black man must be a “mercenary”.

2. Gaddafi is “bombing his own people”.

We must remember that one of the initial reasons in rushing to impose a no-fly zone was to prevent Gaddafi from using his air force to bomb “his own people”—a distinct phrasing that echoes what was tried and tested in the demonization of Saddam Hussein in Iraq. On February 21, when the first alarmist “warnings” about “genocide” were being made by the Libyan opposition, both Al Jazeera and the BBC claimed that Gaddafi had deployed his air force against protesters—as the BBC “reported”: “Witnesses say warplanes have fired on protesters in the city”. Yet, on March 1, in a Pentagon press conference, when asked: “Do you see any evidence that he [Gaddafi] actually has fired on his own people from the air? There were reports of it, but do you have independent confirmation? If so, to what extent?” U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates replied, “We’ve seen the press reports, but we have no confirmation of that”. Backing him up was Admiral Mullen: “That’s correct. We’ve seen no confirmation whatsoever”.

In fact, claims that Gaddafi also used helicopters against unarmed protesters are totally unfounded, a pure fabrication based on fake claims. This is important since it was Gaddafi’s domination of Libyan air space that foreign interventionists wanted to nullify, and therefore myths of atrocities perpetrated from the air took on added value as providing an entry point for foreign military intervention that went far beyond any mandate to “protect civilians”.

David Kirpatrick of The New York Times, as early as March 21 confirmed that, “the rebels feel no loyalty to the truth in shaping their propaganda, claiming nonexistent battlefield victories, asserting they were still fighting in a key city days after it fell to Qaddafi forces, and making vastly inflated claims of his barbaric behavior”. The “vastly inflated claims” are what became part of the imperial folklore surrounding events in Libya, that suited Western intervention.

3. Save Benghazi.

This article is being written as the Libyan opposition forces march on Sirte and Sabha, the two last remaining strongholds of the Gaddafi government, with ominous warnings to the population that they must surrender, or else. Apparently, Benghazi became somewhat of a “holy city” in the international discourse dominated by leaders of the European Union and NATO. Benghazi was the one city on earth that could not be touched. It was like sacred ground. Tripoli? Sirte? Sabha? Those can be sacrificed, as we all look on, without a hint of protest from any of the powers that be—this, even as we get the first reports of how the opposition has slaughtered people in Tripoli. Let’s turn to the Benghazi myth.

“If we waited one more day,” Barack Obama said in his March 28 address, “Benghazi, a city nearly the size of Charlotte, could suffer a massacre that would have reverberated across the region and stained the conscience of the world”. In a joint letter, Obama with UK Prime Minister David Cameron and French President Nicolas Sarkozy asserted: “By responding immediately, our countries halted the advance of Gaddafi’s forces. The bloodbath that he had promised to inflict on the citizens of the besieged city of Benghazi has been prevented. Tens of thousands of lives have been protected”. Not only did French jets bomb a retreating column, what we saw was a very short column that included trucks and ambulances, and that clearly could have neither destroyed nor occupied Benghazi.

In a bitter irony, what evidence there is of massacres, committed by both sides, is now to be found in Tripoli in recent days, months after NATO imposed its “life-saving” military measures. Revenge killings are daily being reported with greater frequency, including the wholesale slaughter of black Libyans and African migrants by rebel forces. Another sad irony: in Benghazi, which the insurgents have held for months now, well after Gaddafi forces were repulsed, not even that has prevented violence: revenge killings have been reported there too—more under #6 below.

4. African Mercenaries.

Patrick Cockburn summarized the functional utility of the myth of the “African mercenary” and the context in which it arose: “Since February, the insurgents, often supported by foreign powers, claimed that the battle was between Gaddafi and his family on the one side and the Libyan people on the other. Their explanation for the large pro-Gaddafi forces was that they were all mercenaries, mostly from black Africa, whose only motive was money”. As he notes, black prisoners were put on display for the media (which is a violation of the Geneva Convention), but Amnesty International later found that all the prisoners had supposedly been released since none of them were fighters, but rather were undocumented workers from Mali, Chad, and west Africa. The myth was useful for the opposition to insist that this was a war between “Gaddafi and the Libyan people,” as if he had no domestic support at all—an absolute and colossal fabrication such that one would think only little children could believe a story so fantastic. The myth is also useful for cementing the intended rupture between “the new Libya” and Pan-Africanism, realigning Libya with Europe and the “modern world” which some of the opposition so explicitly crave.

The “African mercenary” myth, as put into deadly, racist practice, is a fact that paradoxically has been both documented and ignored. Months ago I provided an extensive review of the role of the mainstream media, led by Al Jazeera, as well as the seeding of social media, in creating the African mercenary myth. Among the departures from the norm of vilifying Sub-Saharan Africans and black Libyans that instead documented the abuse of these civilians, were the Los Angeles Times, Human Rights Watch which found no evidence of any mercenaries at all in eastern Libya (totally contradicting the claims presented as truth by Al Arabiya and The Telegraph, among others such as TIME and The Guardian). In an extremely rare departure from the propaganda about the black mercenary threat which Al Jazeera and its journalists helped to actively disseminate, Al Jazeera produced a single report focusing on the robbing, killing, and abduction of black residents in eastern Libya (now that CBS, Channel 4, and others are noting the racism, Al Jazeera is trying to ambiguously show some interest).

The racist targeting and killing of black Libyans and Sub-Saharan Africans continues to the present. Patrick Cockburn and Kim Sengupta speak of the recently discovered mass of “rotting bodies of 30 men, almost all black and many handcuffed, slaughtered as they lay on stretchers and even in an ambulance in central Tripoli”. Even while showing us video of hundreds of bodies in the Abu Salim hospital, the BBC dares not remark on the fact that most of those are clearly black people, and even wonders about who might have killed them. Currently, Human Rights Watch has reported: “Dark-skinned Libyans and sub-Saharan Africans face particular risks because rebel forces and other armed groups have often considered them pro-Gadhafi mercenaries from other African countries. We’ve seen violent attacks and killings of these people in areas where the National Transitional Council took control”. Amnesty International has also just reported on the disproportionate detention of black Africans in rebel-controlled Az-Zawiya, as well as the targeting of unarmed, migrant farm workers. Reports continue to mount as this is being written, with other human rights groups finding evidence of the insurgents targeting Sub-Saharan African migrant workers. As the chair of the African Union, Jean Ping, recently stated: “NTC seems to confuse black people with mercenaries. All blacks are mercenaries. If you do that, it means (that the) one-third of the population of Libya, which is black, is also mercenaries. They are killing people, normal workers, mistreating them”.

The “African mercenary” myth continues to be one of the most vicious of all the myths, and the most racist. Even in recent days, newspapers such as the Boston Globe uncritically and unquestioningly show photographs of black victims or black detainees with the immediate assertion that they must be mercenaries, despite the absence of any evidence. Instead we are usually provided with casual assertions that Gaddafi is “known to have” recruited Africans from other nations in the past, without even bothering to find out if those shown in the photos are black Libyans. The lynching of both black Libyans and Sub-Saharan African migrant workers has been continuous, and has neither received any expression of even nominal concern by the U.S. and NATO members, nor has it aroused the interest of the so-called “International Criminal Court”.

5. Viagra-fueled Mass Rape.

The reported crimes and human rights violations of the Gaddafi regime are awful enough as they are that one has to wonder why anyone would need to invent stories, such as that of Gaddafi’s troops, with erections powered by Viagra, going on a rape spree. Perhaps it was peddled because it’s the kind of story that “captures the imagination of traumatized publics”. This story was taken so seriously that some people started writing to Pfizer to get it to stop selling Viagra to Libya, since its product was allegedly being used as a weapon of war. People who otherwise should know better, set out to deliberately misinform the international public. In a startling declaration to the UN Security Council, U.S. Ambassador Susan Rice also asserted that Gaddafi was supplying his troops with Viagra to encourage mass rape. She offered no evidence whatsoever to back up her claim. Indeed, U.S. military and intelligence sources flatly contradicted Rice, telling NBC News that “there is no evidence that Libyan military forces are being given Viagra and engaging in systematic rape against women in rebel areas”.

By June 10, Cherif Bassiouni, who is leading a UN rights inquiry into the situation in Libya, suggested that the Viagra and mass rape claim was part of a “massive hysteria”. In addition to the UN, Amnesty International’s Donatella Rovera said in an interview with the French daily Libération, that Amnesty had “not found cases of rape….Not only have we not met any victims, but we have not even met any persons who have met victims. As for the boxes of Viagra that Gaddafi is supposed to have had distributed, they were found intact near tanks that were completely burnt out”... However, this did not stop some news manufacturers from trying to maintain the rape claims, in modified form. The BBC went on to add another layer just a few days after Bassiouni humiliated the ICC and the media: the BBC now claimed that rape victims in Libya faced “honour killings”. This is news to the few Libyans I know, who never heard of honour killings in their country. The scholarly literature on Libya turns up little or nothing on this phenomenon in Libya.

6. Responsibility to Protect (R2P).

Having asserted, wrongly as we saw, that Libya faced impending “genocide” at the hands of Gaddafi’s forces, it became easier for Western powers to invoke the UN’s 2005 doctrine of the Responsibility to Protect. Meanwhile, it is not at all clear that by the time the UN Security Council passed Resolution 1973 that the violence in Libya had even reached the levels seen in Egypt, Syria, and Yemen. The most common refrain used against critics of the selectivity of this supposed “humanitarian interventionism” is that just because the West cannot intervene everywhere does not mean it should not intervene in Libya. Maybe…but that still does not explain why Libya was the chosen target. This is a critical point because some of the earliest critiques of R2P voiced at the UN raised the issue of selectivity, of who gets to decide, and why some crises where civilians are targeted (say, Gaza) are essentially ignored, while others receive maximum concern, and whether R2P served as the new fig leaf for hegemonic geopolitics.

The myth at work here is that foreign military intervention was guided by humanitarian concerns. To make the myth work, one has to willfully ignore at least three key realities. One thus has to ignore the new scramble for Africa, where Chinese interests are seen as competing with the West for access to resources and political influence, something that AFRICOM is meant to challenge. Gaddafi challenged AFRICOM’s intent to establish military bases in Africa. AFRICOM has since become directly involved in the Libya intervention and specifically “Operation Odyssey Dawn”. Horace Campbell argued that “U.S. involvement in the Libyan bombing is being turned into a public relations ploy for AFRICOM” and an “opportunity to give AFRICOM credibility under the facade of the Libyan intervention”. In addition, Gaddafi’s power and influence on the continent had also been increasing, through aid, investment, and a range of projects designed to lessen African dependency on the West and to challenge Western multilateral institutions by building African unity—rendering him a rival to U.S. interests. Secondly, one has to ignore not just the anxiety of Western oil interests over Gaddafi’s “resource nationalism” (threatening to take back what oil companies had gained), an anxiety now clearly manifest in the European corporate rush into Libya to scoop up the spoils of victory—but one has to also ignore the apprehension over what Gaddafi was doing with those oil revenues in supporting greater African economic independence, and for historically backing national liberation movements that challenged Western hegemony. Thirdly, one has to also ignore the fear in Washington that the U.S. was losing a grip on the course of the so-called “Arab revolution”. How one can stack up these realities, and match them against ambiguous and partial “humanitarian” concerns, and then conclude that, yes, human rights is what mattered most, seems entirely implausible and unconvincing—especially with the atrocious track record of NATO and U.S. human rights violations in Afghanistan, Iraq, and before that Kosovo and Serbia. The humanitarian angle is simply neither credible nor even minimally logical.

That R2P served as a justifying myth that often achieved the opposite of its stated aims, is no longer a surprise. I am not even speaking here of the role of Qatar and the United Arab Emirates in bombing Libya and aiding the insurgents—even as they backed Saudi military intervention to crush the pro-democracy protests in Bahrain, nor of the ugly pall cast on an intervention led by the likes of unchallenged abusers of human rights who have committed war crimes with impunity in Kosovo, Iraq, and Afghanistan. I am taking a narrower approach—such as the documented cases where NATO not only willfully failed to protect civilians in Libya, but it even deliberately and knowingly targeted them in a manner that constitutes terrorism by most official definitions used by Western governments.

In terms of the failure to protect civilians, in a manner that is actually an international criminal offense, we have the numerous reports of NATO ships ignoring the distress calls of refugee boats in the Mediterranean that were fleeing Libya. In May, 61 African refugees died on a single vessel, despite making contact with vessels belonging to NATO member states. In a repeat of the situation, dozens died in early August on another vessel. In fact, on NATO’s watch, at least 1,500 refugees fleeing Libya have died at sea since the war began. They were mostly Sub-Saharan Africans, and they died in multiples of the death toll suffered by Benghazi during the protests. R2P was utterly absent for these people.

NATO has developed a peculiar terminological twist for Libya, designed to absolve the rebels of any role in perpetrating crimes against civilians, and abdicating its so-called responsibility to protect. Throughout the war, spokespersons for NATO and for the U.S. and European governments consistently portrayed all of the actions of Gaddafi’s forces as “threatening civilians,” even when engaged in either defensive actions, or combat against armed opponents. For example, this week the NATO spokesperson, Roland Lavoie, “appeared to struggle to explain how NATO strikes were protecting civilians at this stage in the conflict. Asked about NATO’s assertion that it hit 22 armed vehicles near Sirte on Monday, he was unable to say how the vehicles were threatening civilians, or whether they were in motion or parked”.

By protecting the rebels, in the same breath as they spoke of protecting civilians, it is clear that NATO intended for us to see Gaddafi’s armed opponents as mere civilians. Interestingly, in Afghanistan, where NATO and the U.S. fund, train, and arm the Karzai regime in attacking “his own people” (like they do in Pakistan), the armed opponents are consistently labeled “terrorists” or “insurgents”—even if the majority of them are civilians who have never served in any official standing army. They are insurgents in Afghanistan, and their deaths at the hands of NATO are listed separately from the tallies for civilian casualties. By some magic, in Libya, they are all “civilians”. NATO has provided a shield for the insurgents in Libya to victimize unarmed civilians in areas they came to occupy. There was no hint of any “responsibility to protect” in these cases. NATO assisted the rebels in starving Tripoli of supplies, subjecting its civilian population to a siege that deprived them of water, food, medicine, and fuel. When Gaddafi was accused of doing this to Misrata, the international media were quick to cite this as a war crime.

7. Gaddafi—the Demon.

Depending on your perspective, either Gaddafi is a heroic revolutionary, and thus the demonization by the West is extreme, or Gaddafi is a really bad man, in which case the demonization is unnecessary and absurd. The myth here is that the history of Gaddafi’s power was marked only by atrocity—he is thoroughly evil, without any redeeming qualities, and anyone accused of being a “Gaddafi supporter” should somehow feel more ashamed than those who openly support NATO. This is binary absolutism at its worst—virtually no one made allowance for the possibility that some might neither support Gaddafi, the insurgents, nor NATO. Everyone was to be forced into one of those camps, no exceptions allowed. What resulted was a phony debate, dominated by fanatics of one side or another. Missed in the discussion, recognition of the obvious: however much Gaddafi had been “in bed” with the West over the past decade, his forces were now fighting against a NATO-driven take over of his country.

Speaking of the breadth of Gaddafi’s record, that ought to resist simplistic, revisionist reduction, some might care to note that even now, the U.S. State Department’s webpage on Libya still points to a Library of Congress Country Study on Libya that features some of the Gaddafi government’s many social welfare achievements over the years in the areas of medical care, public housing, and education. In addition, Libyans have the highest literacy rate in Africa (see UNDP, p. 171) and Libya is the only continental African nation to rank “high” in the UNDP’s Human Development Index. Even the BBC recognized these achievements:

“Women in Libya are free to work and to dress as they like, subject to family constraints. Life expectancy is in the seventies. And per capita income—while not as high as could be expected given Libya’s oil wealth and relatively small population of 6.5m—is estimated at $12,000 (£9,000), according to the World Bank. Illiteracy has been almost wiped out, as has homelessness—a chronic problem in the pre-Gaddafi era, where corrugated iron shacks dotted many urban centres around the country”.

8. Freedom Fighters—the Angels.

The complement to the demonization of Gaddafi was the angelization of the “rebels”. My aim here is not to counter the myth by way of inversion, and demonizing all of Gaddafi’s opponents, who have many serious and legitimate grievances, and in large numbers have clearly had more than they can bear. I am instead interested in how “we,” in the North Atlantic part of the equation, construct them in ways that suit our intervention. One standard way, repeated in different ways across a range of media and by U.S. government spokespersons, can be seen in this New York Times’ depiction of the rebels as “secular-minded professionals—lawyers, academics, businesspeople—who talk about democracy, transparency, human rights and the rule of law”. The listing of professions familiar to the American middle class which respects them, is meant to inspire a shared sense of identification between readers and the Libyan opposition, especially when we recall that it is on the Gaddafi side where the forces of darkness dwell: the main “professions” we find are torturer, terrorist, and African mercenary.

For many weeks it was almost impossible to get reporters embedded with the rebel National Transitional Council in Benghazi to even begin to provide a description of who constituted the anti-Gaddafi movement, if it was one organization or many groups, what their agendas were, and so forth. The subtle leitmotif in the reports was one that cast the rebellion as entirely spontaneous and indigenous—which may be true, in part, and it may also be an oversimplification. Among the reports that significantly complicated the picture were those that discussed the CIA ties to the insurgents (for more, see this, this, this, and that); others highlighted the role of the National Endowment for Democracy, the International Republican Institute, the National Democratic Institute, and USAID, which have been active in Libya since 2005; those that detailed the role of various expatriate groups; and, reports of the active role of “radical Islamist” militias embedded within the overall insurgency, with some pointing to Al Qaeda connections.

Some feel a definite need for being on the side of “the good guys,” especially as neither Iraq nor Afghanistan offer any such sense of righteous vindication. Americans want the world to see them as doing good, as being not only indispensable, but also irreproachable. They could wish for nothing better than being seen as atoning for their sins in Iraq and Afghanistan. This is a special moment, where the bad guy can safely be the other once again. A world that is safe for America is a world that is unsafe for evil. Marching band, baton twirlers, Anderson Cooper, confetti—we get it.

9. Victory for the Libyan People.

To say that the current turn in Libya represents a victory by the Libyan people in charting their own destiny is, at best, an oversimplification that masks the range of interests involved since the beginning in shaping and determining the course of events on the ground, and that ignores the fact that for much of the war Gaddafi was able to rely on a solid base of popular support. As early as February 25, a mere week after the start of the first street protests, Nicolas Sarkozy had already determined that Gaddafi “must go”. By February 28, David Cameron began working on a proposal for a no-fly zone—these statements and decisions were made without any attempt at dialogue and diplomacy. By March 30, The New York Times reported that for “several weeks” CIA operatives had been working inside Libya, which would mean they were there from mid-February, that is, when the protests began—they were then joined inside Libya by “dozens of British special forces and MI6 intelligence officers”.

In recent days it has also been revealed that what the rebel leadership swore it would oppose—“foreign boots on the ground”—is in fact a reality confirmed by NATO: “Special forces troops from Britain, France, Jordan and Qatar on the ground in Libya have stepped up operations in Tripoli and other cities in recent days to help rebel forces as they conducted their final advance on the Gadhafi regime”. This, and other summaries, are only scratching the surface of the range of external support provided to the rebels. The myth here is that of the nationalist, self-sufficient rebel, fueled entirely by popular support.

10. Defeat for “the Left”.

As if reenacting the pattern of articles condemning “the left” that came out in the wake of the Iran election protests in 2009 (see as examples Hamid Dabashi and Slavoj Žižek), the war in Libya once again seemed to have presented an opportunity to target the left, as if this was topmost on the agenda—as if “the left” was the problem to be addressed. Here we see articles, in various states of intellectual and political disrepair, by Juan Cole (see some of the rebuttals: “The case of Professor Juan Cole,” “An open letter to Professor Juan Cole: A reply to a slander,” “Professor Cole ‘answers’ WSWS on Libya: An admission of intellectual and political bankruptcy”), Gilbert Achcar (and this especially), Immanuel Wallerstein, and Helena Sheehan who seemingly arrived at some of her most critical conclusions at the airport at the end of her very first visit to Tripoli.

There seems to be some confusion over roles and identities. There is no homogeneous left, nor ideological agreement among anti-imperialists (which includes conservatives and libertarians, among anarchists and Marxists). Nor was the “anti-imperialist left” in any position to either do real harm on the ground, as is the case of the actual protagonists. There was little chance of the anti-interventionists in influencing foreign policy, which took shape in Washington before any of the serious critiques against intervention were published. These points suggest that at least some of the critiques are moved by concerns that go beyond Libya, and that even have very little to do with Libya ultimately. The most common accusation is that the anti-imperialist left is somehow coddling a dictator. The argument is that this is based on a flawed analysis—in criticizing the position of Hugo Chávez, Wallerstein says Chávez’s analysis is deeply flawed, and offers this among the criticisms: “The second point missed by Hugo Chavez’s analysis is that there is not going to be any significant military involvement of the western world in Libya” (yes, read it again). Indeed, many of the counterarguments deployed against the anti-interventionist left echo or wholly reproduce the top myths that were dismantled above, that get their geopolitical analysis almost entirely wrong, and that pursue politics focused in part on personality and events of the day. This also shows us the deep poverty of politics premised primarily on simplistic and one-sided ideas of “human rights” and “protection” (see Richard Falk’s critique), and the success of the new military humanism in siphoning off the energies of the left. And a question persists: if those opposed to intervention were faulted for providing a moral shield for “dictatorship” (as if imperialism was not itself a global dictatorship), what about those humanitarians who have backed the rise of xenophobic and racist militants who by so many accounts engage in ethnic cleansing? Does it mean that the pro-interventionist crowd is racist? Do they even object to the racism?
I find this viewpoint interesting and largely plausible, but unfortunately I don't have any real way to judge how much of this is grounded in reality. I'd like to know what people here think of these allergations.
User avatar
K. A. Pital
Glamorous Commie
Posts: 20813
Joined: 2003-02-26 11:39am
Location: Elysium

Re: Libya: A Premature Victory Celebration

Post by K. A. Pital »

I think the whole thing in Libya can be summed up shortly:

1) Gaddafi was a typical secular dictator

2) Gaddafi made more advances in his country than neighboring nations

3) Misurata capitalists were heavily taxed and controlled by the Gaddafi clan; people of the East of Libya were not content with Gaddafi and discontent allowed to form the core of the initial rebellion

4) NATO intervened on the side of the rebels, but Saudi Arabia and Quatar starter playing their own card in the game - Islamist fighters, Al-Quaeda units in Libya started pouring through the nonexistent borders and taking part in the fight. NATO pursued imperialistic interests (France = renegotiation of oil contracts with the impoverished nation on new conditions)

5) Right now a situation of three-way civil war exists: (a) TNC which is a NATO puppet; it is only propped up by NATO military power (b) Islamists; Al-Quaeda, etc. radical Islamist militants in Libya, they control a lot of the boots on the ground and act together with the TNC against Gaddafi while making their own game in the behind-the-scenes politics inside the "rebel" camp (c) Gaddafi loyalists, who have demonstrated that they aren't just a bunch of nothing and still defend Sirte and Bani Walid under heavy NATO bombardments and repeated TNC/Islamist onslaughts

6) Soon Quaddafi will be liquidated because NATO wants him dead; Islamists want him dead and the TNC wants him dead. After that the Islamists will win.

Such is my view of the situation. Perhaps it is wrong, but let's wait and see.

P.S. As for "anti-imperialistic left" - I know of more than a few people who went to Libya to fight for the loyalists. Not sure what their eventual fate will be, but let that be known.
Lì ci sono chiese, macerie, moschee e questure, lì frontiere, prezzi inaccessibile e freddure
Lì paludi, minacce, cecchini coi fucili, documenti, file notturne e clandestini
Qui incontri, lotte, passi sincronizzati, colori, capannelli non autorizzati,
Uccelli migratori, reti, informazioni, piazze di Tutti i like pazze di passioni...

...La tranquillità è importante ma la libertà è tutto!
Assalti Frontali
User avatar
Crateria
Padawan Learner
Posts: 269
Joined: 2011-10-01 02:48pm
Location: Sitting in front of a computer, bored

Re: Libya: A Premature Victory Celebration

Post by Crateria »

Stas Bush wrote:(b) Islamists; Al-Quaeda, etc. radical Islamist militants in Libya, they control a lot of the boots on the ground and act together with the TNC against Gaddafi while making their own game in the behind-the-scenes politics inside the "rebel" camp (c) Gaddafi loyalists, who have demonstrated that they aren't just a bunch of nothing and still defend Sirte and Bani Walid under heavy NATO bombardments and repeated TNC/Islamist onslaughts

6) Soon Quaddafi will be liquidated because NATO wants him dead; Islamists want him dead and the TNC wants him dead. After that the Islamists will win.

Such is my view of the situation. Perhaps it is wrong, but let's wait and see.
Where is the proof of the Islamists making up the majority of the Libyan fighters? That seems unlikely given Libya's seculari-

Wait a minute.










That's what people said about Iraq. :shock: :cry:
Damn you know it. You so smart you brought up like history and shit. Laying down facts like you was a blues clues episode or something. How you get so smart? Like the puns and shit you use are wicked smart, Red Letter Moron! HAHAHAHAH!1 Fucks that is funny, you like should be on TV with Jeff Dunham and shit.-emersonlakeandbalmer
God is like the strict dad while Satan is the cool uncle who gives you weed. However sometimes he'll be a dick and turn you in.
Block
Jedi Council Member
Posts: 2333
Joined: 2007-08-06 02:36pm

Re: Libya: A Premature Victory Celebration

Post by Block »

I agree with most of it, though the part about Africom is bullshit. The US already has agreements in place to establish bases and doesn't need PR from a limited air campaign to sell it to anyone.
Lord of the Abyss
Village Idiot
Posts: 4046
Joined: 2005-06-15 12:21am
Location: The Abyss

Re: Libya: A Premature Victory Celebration

Post by Lord of the Abyss »

Crateria wrote:Where is the proof of the Islamists making up the majority of the Libyan fighters? That seems unlikely given Libya's seculari-

Wait a minute.










That's what people said about Iraq. :shock: :cry:
Libya doesn't have an American occupation regime deliberately destroying their entire social order and otherwise screwing up their attempts to re-impose order and rebuild.
"There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs." - John Rogers
User avatar
Crateria
Padawan Learner
Posts: 269
Joined: 2011-10-01 02:48pm
Location: Sitting in front of a computer, bored

Re: Libya: A Premature Victory Celebration

Post by Crateria »

Lord of the Abyss wrote:
Crateria wrote:Where is the proof of the Islamists making up the majority of the Libyan fighters? That seems unlikely given Libya's seculari-

Wait a minute.










That's what people said about Iraq. :shock: :cry:
Libya doesn't have an American occupation regime deliberately destroying their entire social order and otherwise screwing up their attempts to re-impose order and rebuild.
They will. They will. :(

But seriously, it doesn't matter whether or not America is occupying Libya. The Fundies are still there and, if this article is true, are providing most of the boots on the ground. A Libyan Taliban is a very strong possibility, especially if the THC is a NATO puppet. Which means destruction of the country happens anyway due to NATO (and the USA in particular) wholesale looting of all of Libya's resources. Which in turn destroys Libya's society and gives rise to Islamists in power or a permanent civil war between various factions.
Damn you know it. You so smart you brought up like history and shit. Laying down facts like you was a blues clues episode or something. How you get so smart? Like the puns and shit you use are wicked smart, Red Letter Moron! HAHAHAHAH!1 Fucks that is funny, you like should be on TV with Jeff Dunham and shit.-emersonlakeandbalmer
God is like the strict dad while Satan is the cool uncle who gives you weed. However sometimes he'll be a dick and turn you in.
Alkaloid
Jedi Master
Posts: 1102
Joined: 2011-03-21 07:59am

Re: Libya: A Premature Victory Celebration

Post by Alkaloid »

But seriously, it doesn't matter whether or not America is occupying Libya.
It does. It really really does. For insurgents to operate on the sort of scale they do in Iraq and Afghanistan, they need the support or the indifference of the populace. They can operate like they do because Iraqis and Afghans don't like the western forces being in their country, and have no interest in helping them locate and combat insurgents. If Libya is being run by a government that the civilian populace actually wants to succeed, then the Islamist will have a much more difficult time there because the government will actually be able to identify and move against them. I'd argue this is why France and Britain pushed so hard to intervene. It becomes a hell of a lot harder to believe the guy shouting 'France and Britain are evil and we must crush them' when you can remember a year ago they were bombing the tanks you were fighting against. It's an attempt to 'win hearts and minds' that might actually work.
TNC which is a NATO puppet;
That's far to simplistic. TNC is a new body that has had NATO support, true, but its made up of rebel groups far older than that, with a lot of different reasons for rebelling, and many have little love for NATO. Looking at the situation like it's this simple will lead to an Iraq/Afghan style clusterfuck faster than almost anything else.
User avatar
Crateria
Padawan Learner
Posts: 269
Joined: 2011-10-01 02:48pm
Location: Sitting in front of a computer, bored

Re: Libya: A Premature Victory Celebration

Post by Crateria »

Alkaloid wrote:
But seriously, it doesn't matter whether or not America is occupying Libya.
It does. It really really does. For insurgents to operate on the sort of scale they do in Iraq and Afghanistan, they need the support or the indifference of the populace. They can operate like they do because Iraqis and Afghans don't like the western forces being in their country, and have no interest in helping them locate and combat insurgents. If Libya is being run by a government that the civilian populace actually wants to succeed, then the Islamist will have a much more difficult time there because the government will actually be able to identify and move against them. I'd argue this is why France and Britain pushed so hard to intervene. It becomes a hell of a lot harder to believe the guy shouting 'France and Britain are evil and we must crush them' when you can remember a year ago they were bombing the tanks you were fighting against. It's an attempt to 'win hearts and minds' that might actually work.
TNC which is a NATO puppet;
That's far to simplistic. TNC is a new body that has had NATO support, true, but its made up of rebel groups far older than that, with a lot of different reasons for rebelling, and many have little love for NATO. Looking at the situation like it's this simple will lead to an Iraq/Afghan style clusterfuck faster than almost anything else.
I didn't say that the TNC was a NATO puppet, I said that if it is it will contribute to a disaster due to Western foreign policy. I have no way of knowing if the article posted not too long ago is actually true in what it says; I'm merely basing my opinions off it.

I hope you're right about this. I'd much rather eat crow than have thousands of Libyans eat bullets.
Damn you know it. You so smart you brought up like history and shit. Laying down facts like you was a blues clues episode or something. How you get so smart? Like the puns and shit you use are wicked smart, Red Letter Moron! HAHAHAHAH!1 Fucks that is funny, you like should be on TV with Jeff Dunham and shit.-emersonlakeandbalmer
God is like the strict dad while Satan is the cool uncle who gives you weed. However sometimes he'll be a dick and turn you in.
Alkaloid
Jedi Master
Posts: 1102
Joined: 2011-03-21 07:59am

Re: Libya: A Premature Victory Celebration

Post by Alkaloid »

I didn't say that the TNC was a NATO puppet, I said that if it is it will contribute to a disaster due to Western foreign policy
That was to Stas, actually, sorry if that was unclear.
I hope you're right about this. I'd much rather eat crow than have thousands of Libyans eat bullets.
I'll admit I'm more optimistic about this than most, and I'll admit that no one intervened out of the goodness of their hearts, but I don't think it's beyond a modern government to learn from its mistakes, especially when they are as glaring as Iraq and Afghanistan.
User avatar
Crateria
Padawan Learner
Posts: 269
Joined: 2011-10-01 02:48pm
Location: Sitting in front of a computer, bored

Re: Libya: A Premature Victory Celebration

Post by Crateria »

Alkaloid wrote:
I didn't say that the TNC was a NATO puppet, I said that if it is it will contribute to a disaster due to Western foreign policy
That was to Stas, actually, sorry if that was unclear.
I hope you're right about this. I'd much rather eat crow than have thousands of Libyans eat bullets.
I'll admit I'm more optimistic about this than most, and I'll admit that no one intervened out of the goodness of their hearts, but I don't think it's beyond a modern government to learn from its mistakes, especially when they are as glaring as Iraq and Afghanistan.
Talk to Purple. He'll change your mind. :| :P
Damn you know it. You so smart you brought up like history and shit. Laying down facts like you was a blues clues episode or something. How you get so smart? Like the puns and shit you use are wicked smart, Red Letter Moron! HAHAHAHAH!1 Fucks that is funny, you like should be on TV with Jeff Dunham and shit.-emersonlakeandbalmer
God is like the strict dad while Satan is the cool uncle who gives you weed. However sometimes he'll be a dick and turn you in.
Block
Jedi Council Member
Posts: 2333
Joined: 2007-08-06 02:36pm

Re: Libya: A Premature Victory Celebration

Post by Block »

Alkaloid wrote:
But seriously, it doesn't matter whether or not America is occupying Libya.
It does. It really really does. For insurgents to operate on the sort of scale they do in Iraq and Afghanistan, they need the support or the indifference of the populace. They can operate like they do because Iraqis and Afghans don't like the western forces being in their country, and have no interest in helping them locate and combat insurgents. If Libya is being run by a government that the civilian populace actually wants to succeed, then the Islamist will have a much more difficult time there because the government will actually be able to identify and move against them. I'd argue this is why France and Britain pushed so hard to intervene. It becomes a hell of a lot harder to believe the guy shouting 'France and Britain are evil and we must crush them' when you can remember a year ago they were bombing the tanks you were fighting against. It's an attempt to 'win hearts and minds' that might actually work.
This is so untrue it's laughable. The reason the Iraqi and Afghani populations didn't/don't support the US is because they don't think we'll stay. They believe that any progress made will be reversed when US forces leave, because the real enemy is their neighbor, Iran in the case of Iraq, Pakistan in the case of Afghanistan. The populations are against the Islamists, but don't want to anger them. If France and Britain hadn't intervened, Qathafi crushes the Rebels, and there isn't even a concern about extremists.
Alkaloid
Jedi Master
Posts: 1102
Joined: 2011-03-21 07:59am

Re: Libya: A Premature Victory Celebration

Post by Alkaloid »

This is so untrue it's laughable. The reason the Iraqi and Afghani populations didn't/don't support the US is because they don't think we'll stay.
Yes. I'm sure it has nothing to do with the fact that the US and it's allies rolled in, annihilated the only people providing anything resembling order or security, regularly engages in firefights that result in civilian casualties, regularly raids the wrong house and shoots the wrong people, and installs a corrupt government that is incapable of securing the support of anyone except US, and yes, plans to leave in an undetermined period of time, probably with out fixing any of the shit it broke.
They believe that any progress made will be reversed when US forces leave, because the real enemy is their neighbor, Iran in the case of Iraq, Pakistan in the case of Afghanistan.
This is a legit concern for Iraqis, yes, and if anyone made progress in actually setting up a government that could potentially run the country and be able to deal with Iran, then it would be far less of a problem. But hey, they can't, because most locals hate them, because they do the things listed above.

And do you seriously think the average Afghan tribesman is worried about Pakistan? Pakistan can barely run Pakistan, let alone affect Afghanistan.
If France and Britain hadn't intervened, Qathafi crushes the Rebels, and there isn't even a concern about extremists.
Sure, in Libya. But there's still every other potential terrorist in every other shitheap country that has good reason to hate Britain and France because they installed the ego maniacal lunatic that runs the place who can now look at what went down in Libya and say "gee, maybe they aren't actually my enemy, out to oppress me because I live in horribleplacestan and wanted Psycho McLoony running the country only so they could get cheap shit. Maybe if I ask them for help, I might get it, and don't have to actively work against them!" You know, big picture shit.
Block
Jedi Council Member
Posts: 2333
Joined: 2007-08-06 02:36pm

Re: Libya: A Premature Victory Celebration

Post by Block »

Alkaloid wrote:Sure, in Libya. But there's still every other potential terrorist in every other shitheap country that has good reason to hate Britain and France because they installed the ego maniacal lunatic that runs the place who can now look at what went down in Libya and say "gee, maybe they aren't actually my enemy, out to oppress me because I live in horribleplacestan and wanted Psycho McLoony running the country only so they could get cheap shit. Maybe if I ask them for help, I might get it, and don't have to actively work against them!" You know, big picture shit.
You mean how Britain and France helped to remove the Lawful government of a soverign country to further their imperial interests? You do realize that's how it'll get interpreted 6 months to year down the road right? Just like for the first six months the US WAS greeted as liberators, but when the corrupt government that ended up running the place ended up being as bad or worse than Saddam in some ways, people got nostalgia for the good old days.
Alkaloid
Jedi Master
Posts: 1102
Joined: 2011-03-21 07:59am

Re: Libya: A Premature Victory Celebration

Post by Alkaloid »

You mean how Britain and France helped to remove the Lawful government of a soverign country to further their imperial interests? You do realize that's how it'll get interpreted 6 months to year down the road right? Just like for the first six months the US WAS greeted as liberators, but when the corrupt government that ended up running the place ended up being as bad or worse than Saddam in some ways, people got nostalgia for the good old days.
They might be. But if they keep their nose out of the TNC's business and let them try to run the country, and it works, they'll have a pretty solid ally in Libya. That's what it comes down to, what it has always come down to. How competent is the TNC? By keeping troops out of Libya, they can insulate themselves from the worst of the fallout if it goes bad, but still be regarded as an ally if it works.

Look, I'm not saying that a healthy country is a guaranteed outcome here, but what there is now is a chance for Libya to get out of the cycle of oppressive dictator - bloody uprising - oppressive dictator. The TNC is promising because of the way it formed, it's not a homogenous group, it's a number of groups who negotiated to form an alliance to achieve a common goal. They've done it before, they can potentially do it again, and the approach taken by other countries so far indicates that they may be willing to leave them alone and let them try.

As for imperialism, I don't think its a really accurate term here. If that was their goal, the best thing to do would be demand more concessions from Gaddafi, turn him completely into a puppet and then help him crush the rebels. The fact that they didn't makes it look more like they are trying to build themselves and ally in the middle east that they can be reasonably sure won't turn on them the moment their back is turned, because its becoming pretty clear that direct military 'imperialism' doesn't work anymore.
User avatar
Crateria
Padawan Learner
Posts: 269
Joined: 2011-10-01 02:48pm
Location: Sitting in front of a computer, bored

Re: Libya: A Premature Victory Celebration

Post by Crateria »

Alkaloid wrote:

Look, I'm not saying that a healthy country is a guaranteed outcome here, but what there is now is a chance for Libya to get out of the cycle of oppressive dictator - bloody uprising - oppressive dictator. The TNC is promising because of the way it formed, it's not a homogenous group, it's a number of groups who negotiated to form an alliance to achieve a common goal. They've done it before, they can potentially do it again, and the approach taken by other countries so far indicates that they may be willing to leave them alone and let them try.

As for imperialism, I don't think its a really accurate term here. If that was their goal, the best thing to do would be demand more concessions from Gaddafi, turn him completely into a puppet and then help him crush the rebels. The fact that they didn't makes it look more like they are trying to build themselves and ally in the middle east that they can be reasonably sure won't turn on them the moment their back is turned, because its becoming pretty clear that direct military 'imperialism' doesn't work anymore.
For your first one, I'm not so sure that it might work out. Many differing groups are usually needed to bring about a revolution. Afterwards the new government wing's factions sometimes decide it's time to clean house and start shooting at each other. It could resemble revolutionary France or Weimar Germany or post-communist Afghanistan with open, brutal violence between different groups, claiming many lives in the process. There's no guarantee that the factions will stick together once Gaddafi and his loyalists out of the picture.

As for the second, Gaddafi's grip on power likely rests on standing up to the West. I know this might not be true for him since he was downgraded from "dangerous enemy" to "sorta-friendly" by the West. But western-friendliness is like the kiss of death in the Arab world. It may have sparked increased terrorism against Libya by Islamic fundies or contributed to a coup that could have put an anti-Western strongman into power, ironically how Gadaffi came to be. So I doubt he'd really want to being kept afloat by the West. Especially considering they might betray him later on.
Damn you know it. You so smart you brought up like history and shit. Laying down facts like you was a blues clues episode or something. How you get so smart? Like the puns and shit you use are wicked smart, Red Letter Moron! HAHAHAHAH!1 Fucks that is funny, you like should be on TV with Jeff Dunham and shit.-emersonlakeandbalmer
God is like the strict dad while Satan is the cool uncle who gives you weed. However sometimes he'll be a dick and turn you in.
Alkaloid
Jedi Master
Posts: 1102
Joined: 2011-03-21 07:59am

Re: Libya: A Premature Victory Celebration

Post by Alkaloid »

For your first one, I'm not so sure that it might work out. Many differing groups are usually needed to bring about a revolution. Afterwards the new government wing's factions sometimes decide it's time to clean house and start shooting at each other. It could resemble revolutionary France or Weimar Germany or post-communist Afghanistan with open, brutal violence between different groups, claiming many lives in the process. There's no guarantee that the factions will stick together once Gaddafi and his loyalists out of the picture.
There's never any guarantee, no. But that doesn't mean its doomed to failure.
As for the second, Gaddafi's grip on power likely rests on standing up to the West. I know this might not be true for him since he was downgraded from "dangerous enemy" to "sorta-friendly" by the West. But western-friendliness is like the kiss of death in the Arab world. It may have sparked increased terrorism against Libya by Islamic fundies or contributed to a coup that could have put an anti-Western strongman into power, ironically how Gadaffi came to be. So I doubt he'd really want to being kept afloat by the West. Especially considering they might betray him later on.
There are all sorts of Arab regimes that only exist because of western support, and his was one of them. And it's possible to not give him a choice. If its as literal as "NATO bombs you or the rebels, take your pick" he is going to fold because he damn well knows he can't win against NATO unless he is actually insane. (Not impossible)
User avatar
Crateria
Padawan Learner
Posts: 269
Joined: 2011-10-01 02:48pm
Location: Sitting in front of a computer, bored

Re: Libya: A Premature Victory Celebration

Post by Crateria »

Alkaloid wrote: There are all sorts of Arab regimes that only exist because of western support, and his was one of them. And it's possible to not give him a choice. If its as literal as "NATO bombs you or the rebels, take your pick" he is going to fold because he damn well knows he can't win against NATO unless he is actually insane. (Not impossible)
He's apparently not the sanest guy, just look up some of the shit about him. :P

To nitpick, his regime relied on soviet protection, his intelligence apparatus being both loyal and able to crush dissidents, oil prices in his favor, and his peoples' gratitude.
Damn you know it. You so smart you brought up like history and shit. Laying down facts like you was a blues clues episode or something. How you get so smart? Like the puns and shit you use are wicked smart, Red Letter Moron! HAHAHAHAH!1 Fucks that is funny, you like should be on TV with Jeff Dunham and shit.-emersonlakeandbalmer
God is like the strict dad while Satan is the cool uncle who gives you weed. However sometimes he'll be a dick and turn you in.
Post Reply